Knut Espen Solberg 20 October 2009 WP210 Marine Transportation.

Knut Espen Solberg 20 October 2009

WP210

Marine Transportation

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20 October 2009

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WP210 – Marine TransportationOverall objective

Establish baseline and future scenarios for ship transport/activities Define for future scenarios; emission to air, potential discharges to sea and quantify other pollutants

Specific ObjectivesEstablish baseline and future scenarios for ship transport/activities Develop modelling framework for quantifying emission to air, potential discharges to sea and other

pollutants Calculate for baseline and future scenarios; emission to air, potential discharges to sea and

quantify other pollutants

Input required

WP110, WP120, WP220, WP230 and WP240

Gives input to

Theme 3 – WP310, WP320 and WP330


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Challenges?

Source: PAME, 2000


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Polar regions- Ports and Routes

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Barents Sea

Western Siberia

Sverdrup Basin

North Alaska

Arctic fishing groundsOil fieldsNavigation routes

# Ports-of-call

Major ports and navigation routes in the Arctic, reported by PAME 2000.

Vessels densities 1996. The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS).

Source: Endresen et al. 2003.


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Increasing oil shipment from North West Russia

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1000000

2000000

3000000

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5000000

6000000

7000000

2002 2003 2004

Year

Oil

sh

ipm

en

t (t

on

ne

s)

Source: Kystverket, http://www.kystverket.no/arch/_img/9938438.pdf


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Sub-WP210Task 1. WP210-1 - Define the baseline for ship transport/activities.

(Leader: CNIIMF, Participants: CNIIMF, BMT)

Task 2. WP210-2 - Define the future scenarios for ship transport/activities.

(Leader: DNV, Participants: OF, NERSC, UC/AL)

Task 3. WP210-3 – Technology and policy development.

(Leader: CNIIMF, Participants: DNV, BMT)

Task 4. WP210-4 – Define baseline for Emission to air.

(Leader: CNIIMF, Participants: DNV, BMT)

Task 5. WP210-5 – Define Emission to air for future scenarios.

(Leader: DNV, Participants: CNIIMF, BMT)


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Sub-WP210Task 6. WP210-6 – Define potential discharges to sea for the baseline.

(Leader: BMT, Participants: DNV, CNIIMF)

Task 7. WP210-7 – Define potential discharges to sea for the future scenarios.


Task 8. WP210-8– Define the baseline for other pollutants


Task 9. WP210-9 – Define future scenarios for other pollutants


Task 10. WP210-10 – Holistic GIS assessment tool

(Leader: DNV, Participants: NERSC


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WP210 - Overview

WP210-4&5

WP210-4&5

WP210-6&7 WP210-6&7WP210-8&9

WP210-8&9

WP210-6&7WP210-6&7


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Participants?

Workpackage number WP210 Start date or starting event: Month 1 WP Package title: Marine Transport and alternative transport

Activity Type RTD Participant number 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Participant short name DNV CNIIMF BMT NERSC OF UC/AL Person-months per participant:


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ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SEA TRANSPORTATION, WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS

ON OIL AND GAS SCENARIOS FOR NORWAY AND NORTHWEST RUSSIA

Reference paper/projects

DNV:

Projections of petroleum and shipping activities up 2015

Modelling of energy and emission from the Arctic fleet, 2000 and 2015

Dalsøren, S. B., Endresen Ø., Gravir G., Sørgård E., and Isaksen I. S. A., Environmental impacts of the expected increase in sea transportation, with particular focus on oil and gas scenarios for Norway and for Northwest Russian,112, Journal of Geophysical Research, D02310, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006927, 2006.

Sulfate wet deposition change in October 2015 due to offshore

activity, NSR and oil and gas transport.


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20 October 2009

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ArcAct-Unlocking the Arctic ocean

Goal: To quantify the climate impacts in terms of radiative forcing from increased oil/gas and shipping activities in the Arctic region (->2050)

DNV: Detailed future ship emission inventories. Based on modeling approach for ship traffic over the Arctic

New model: The future Arctic Transit shipping activity level is determined by jointly assessing the volume of global seaborne trade and the attractiveness of selecting the Arctic transit route as opposed to traditional sea routes (e.g. via Suez)

Source: Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen, Impacts of Climate change on shipping, DNVR&I presentation


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PAME- Snap shot Analysis of Maritime Activities in the Arctic

The Norwegian Maritime Directorate and the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, produced by DNV, 2000.

Snap shot for ship activities, and the resulting air emissions, discharges to sea and other pollutions.

http://www.pame.is/sidur/uploads/Norwegian_maritime_directorate.PDF

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Barents Sea

Western Siberia

Sverdrup Basin

North Alaska

Arctic fishing groundsOil fieldsNavigation routes

# Ports-of-call


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Quantify

Goal (DNV): Modelling past, present and future ship fuel consumption and emissions (year 1900->2100).

Instrument: EU, 6FP


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Oil spill


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Safeguarding life, property and the environment

www.dnv.com


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Relevant projectsINSROP (International Northern Sea Route Programme) is a six-year (June 1993 – March 1999)

international research programme designed to create an extensive knowledge base about the ice-infested shipping lanes running along the coast of the Russian Arctic from Novaya Zemlya in the west to the Bering Strait in the east.

ARCDEV (Arctic Demonstration and Exploratory Voyage) is an applied research and demonstration project conducted under the Waterborne Transport Programme of the European Commission.

ARCOP (Arctic Operational Platform), Technical negotiations of a new EU-funded (6 mill. euros) ARCOP (Arctic Operational Platform) Programme are underway. ARCOP is a continuation of ARCDEV, it is planned to start in February 2002, and it is coordinated by the Kværner Masa-Yards Arctic Technology Centre in Finland.

COMKISS: The two main objectives of the project were: to demonstrate to major segments of the marine transport industry the benefits of integrating satellite-derived information on sea state such as wave height and direction. to raise awareness of the usefulness of satellite data in increasing the safety and overall efficiency of shipping operations.

IRIS - Ice Ridging Information for Decision Making in Shipping Operations, The IRIS project is funded by the European Union, under its 5th Framework Programme. Contract no: EVK3-CT-2002-00083,Duration: 36 Months

PAME- Snap shot Analysis of Maritime Activities in the Arctic The Norwegian Maritime Directorate and the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, produced by DNV, 2000.

Knut Espen Solberg 20 October 2009 WP210 Marine Transportation.

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