Keynote address 3 seishi
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Transcript of Keynote address 3 seishi
Agriculture was successful in 20th century
1961 2003
• Wheat 1.1 t/ha 2.9 t/ha (2.7 times)• Rice 1.9 t/ha 4.0 t/ha (2.1 times)• Corn 1.9 t/ha 4.7 t/ha (2.4 times)
• Population3 billion 6.3 billion (2.1 times)
• Labor (hrs/ha)*1,750 hrs 250hrs (1/7th)
FAO statistics * Case of Japan1 ha = 2.5 acre
But its sustainability is being terrified
• Serious impacts on environment– Water pollution and shortage– Damage on ecosystem– Degradation of soil– CO2 emission in total
• Food safety and reliability issues
because the success depended on chemicals and high resource consumption, resulting in
In addition, climatic change and frequent extreme weather are destabilizing crop productivity
Agriculture in 21st century
• Food shortage crisis– Population increases by 200,000 per day– Usage of food for bio-fuel – Meat consumption increase– Unstable and short water supply– Land shortage and degradation– Damage by global warming and frequent extreme whether
conditions
• Real sustainability of food production– Paradigm shift from maximization to optimization– High productivity– Profit performance– Low impact on environment– Sustainable resource management– Food safety– Robustness and best management against global warming
An example of such optimization
• Reduction of pesticide application results in – Cost reduction
• Material cost, labor cost
– Lower impact on environment– Lower CO2 output– Food safety and reliability
• To reduce pesticide– Timely and pinpoint protection (application)
• For timely and pinpoint protection– Prediction of pest emergence– Optimal crop management
6
ICT helps optimization in many aspects
• Sustainable agriculture– Optimal agro-chemical application– Optimal energy saving
• Cost reduction and competitive agriculture– Optimal farm planning, efficient management of large number of fields– Efficient distribution of products
• Robust and stable farm production under extreme weather and global warming
– Optimal crop / variety recommendation, optimal cropping timing– Early warning system of extreme weather
• Food safety and reliability– Tractability, right use of pesticide– GAP risk management
• High quality products– Quality sensing and optimal crop management
• Acceleration of agricultural research
Challenges in technologies
• Site-specific data acquisition– Spatially high resolution data– Efficient ground data monitoring
• Decision model tuning/assimilation and evaluation
• Agricultural cloud to share data and applications– Platform to exchange data seamlessly
• Spatial and temporal data integration• Data standardization• Multilingual system to share data among countries and
regions
Integration of low cost sensor networks
JICA Project, Beijing
Coffee farm, Hawaii
University of Florida
Rain fed paddy, Khon Kaen
Spinach farm, Chengmai Tomato green house
Orange farm, Arida Orange farm,
kumano
Rice paddy, NARC
Pasture Imja Glacier Lak, Nepal
A farm, Hokkaido
Immigration Route
4 mm
3 mgRice Hopper
Airborne pest immigration prediction – an example of data integration
• Weather forecast to predict stream speed and direction
• Particle diffusion model to predict insect dispersion
• Identification taking-off origin– Inverse simulation based on insect trap data to find
candidates locations of origins
– Satellite image analysis to identify paddies of origins among candidates
– Crop growth model to estimate rice growth stage
• Insect behavior model to estimate taking-off time
The last one mile issues
• Lingual illiteracy– How to communicate with them?
• ICT illiteracy– How to extend ICT in rural area?
• Lack of site-specific information– How to provide it for most optimal site-specific decisions?
• Shortage of extension staffs– Who provides proper advices?
• Difficulty to realize extensibility of the approach to different language
12
Youth Mediated Communication Model ( YMC)
• A totally new approach of decision support system to solve the last one mile issues with illiterate farmers
• Communication with illiterate farmers through children being educated at schools
• Site-specific field information acquisition by children
• To compensate the lack of local experts by remote experts
• An way to extend ICT in rural area through educating children
• A trial to provide internationally extensible mechanism
YMC Viet general flow
[1] Hearing
[3] Reply[4] Communicating reply from expert
[2] Write Qs Field Data
Dialogue with Experts(via Internet)
Analogue communication
Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
Test bed in Vietnam40 families participatedChildren from age 9 to 14
Children sensors in action
Air temperature and humidity
15
Plant height, leaf color, pests
Plant images
Q & A mechanism
• Typical questions and corresponding answers are provided in advance as a Q & A sets– About 250 sets at the beginning
– So-called recipe cards are provided corresponding to typical answers
– Qs & As are not simply one-to-one so that experts need to interact
• Children can also consult experts with free text questions when they cannot find proper ones in the Q&A sets– The interactions between children and experts are used to
enrich the Q&A sets
• Questions go along with field data by children
Recipe Cards for easier communication
Cards are used to tell parents about experts advices as it
is easy to forget by the time you go home.
Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
Information Flow of YMC
Experts in Japan and Vietnam
YouthPC
Mobile phone
illiterate famers
Question and field information・
Answer
Question
Answer
Machine translation
Service Grid
Analogue tools
Bridger
Support translation
Facilitator・ Support children・
Rural Area
YMC System(Q&A system+ online text)
Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
• Youths’ sensors will provide spatially high density weather information– Low cost and maintenance free– Outlier can be easily found– Very useful for reliable decision support
• The collected data can be used for an early warning system– e.g. Emergence of rice blast– GIS can be a good interface
• Long-term continuous observation makes decision support more reliable– By overcoming site-specificity of agriculture
Youth Sensors
Conclusions
• YMC approach seems to work fine in advising illiterate farmers though we need to continue the trial for some more cropping seasons to give the evaluation
• Youths’ sensors help the experts to provide proper advices
• Children became more interested in agriculture than before and have more communication with parents