Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire:What’s Behind the Curtain

Kathy ConwayCo-facilitator:

Southern Oregon Climate Action Nowhttp://socan.info

kathleendconway@gmail.com 541 – 324 – 4501

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Wildfires

10 F makes difference between a high fire year and a low fire year.(http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html )

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Rogue Valley Temperature History and Projections

2099

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.100F

1900 2000

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.170F

Projected Temperature Increases

2035-2045Average1.6 – 4⁰F

(51.6 – 53.8⁰F)

Winter 1 – 3.5⁰F

(39.1 – 41.7⁰F)

Summer1 – 6⁰F

(64.4 – 69.5⁰F)

August 1 – 7.5⁰F

(67.1 – 73.5⁰F)

2075-2085Average

4.3 – 8.2⁰F(54.3 – 58.2⁰F)

Winter 3.4 – 6.3⁰F

(41.5 – 44.5⁰F)

Summer5.5 – 11.8⁰F

(69.1 – 75.4⁰F)

August6.7 – 16.8⁰F

(72.7 – 82.8⁰F)

Historic Precipitation

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

National increaseof 5%

Projected Precipitati

onSeasonal Pattern –

HighEmissions Scenarios

Crater Lake (May, 2011)

Declining Mid-Elevation Snowfall 7,000 – 8,000 ft

1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Average annual snowfall at Crater Lake HQ

From when data were first collected

Inches o

f snow

fall

Source: Crater Lake National Park

25% Reduction

N. California 1950 - 2000

Below 7500’ 13% declineAbove 7500’ 12% increase

Applegate Lake

By the end of the century, there may be 90%

reduction.

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980

2011

2010

2008

2009

2000-2009 was hottest

decade on record

Nine of the ten hottest years recordedoccurred in that decade

2012

Since 1970s + 1.3⁰FSince 1880s + app. 1.65⁰F

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

The 15 hottest year recordedare post 1997

Future Temperature Range

http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html

There is much variability –depends on what we do.

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Home

Incoming Visible light

Transformed toInfra-red radiation= heat – re-radiated

out

Some infra-red radiation is absorbed by

atmospheric gases (CO2, methane,

oxides of nitrogen)

Remainder escapes

into space

The Atmospheric “Greenhouse

Effect"

WARNING:Not drawn to scale

NOTE: Absorbency is

in lower atmosphere – which is

where we live

If atmospheric gas density increases,

more heat is retained by this ‘thermal

blanket’

Surface - LowerAtmosphere

War

min

g

Less escapes

into space

The CO2 / Temperature Pattern

Finally – Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation of Global

Warming…

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

B UT

23 X CO2 296 X CO2

Approximately 75% > 75%

The Problem

Greenhouse gases released by human activity:• Carbon dioxide• Methane• Oxides of nitrogen

2000 Global Emissions

Source: EPA’s Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Materials and Land Management Practices

2006 U.S. GHG Emissions: sectors viewU.S. Total GHG Emissions (2006) = 7.1 billion MT CO2e

What produces carbon emissions locally? Good Co, Eugene, OR GHG Inventory

http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf

Outline

Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

http://socan.info Co-Facilitators:

Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com

MEETINGS: Last Tuesday of the month (except September 17th)Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm

General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pmMedford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

Mission & Goal Statement The Mission of SOCAN is:

• To recognize the urgency for bold action against climate change• To promote awareness and understanding about the causes and

consequences of climate change• To develop solutions and motivate concerned citizens to take action

Our Goal:Collaborating with individuals and organizations throughout the world, we seek a reduction in the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to 350 parts per million. To achieve this, we encourage both personal and governmental actions that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from individual to global levels.

Focus Groups Community Education Green Energy Natural Resources Government

Projects Divestment from Fossil Fuels Climate change in the curriculum Weather Reporting Presentations Federal, State & Local Governments Networking Bear Creek Salmon Festival Booth (October 5, 2013)

Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire:What’s Behind the Curtain

What will you do to protect future generations?

http://socan.info

Want to Learn More?

'Climate Change and the Rogue Valley;' a ten week SOU/OLLI course; will be presented Thursdays 1:00 - 3:00 pm from September 12th at the SOU/RCC HEC in Medford - contact SOU/OLLI. (541) 552-6048 'A Rogue Climate for the Valley;' a three week Ashland North Mountain Park Nature Center course; Tuesdays 7:00 - 9:00 pm from October 1st - contact the Nature Center. (541) 488-6606 'A Rogue Climate for Our Valley;' three week Coyote Trails Jefferson Nature Center Course; Saturdays 1:00 - 3:00 pm from November 9th - contact Coyote Trails: 541-772-1390