John Vanston Chairman Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014: Insight, Innovation & Strategy Author,...

MINITRENDSMiniTrends

What Are MiniTrends and Why Are They

ImportantJohn VanstonChairman

Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014: Insight, Innovation & StrategyAuthor, MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends(512) 258-8898www.minitrends.com ● www.tfi.com ● [email protected]

Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.

MiniTrends and Macro-Change: Turbo-Charging

Your FutureMaster Session for

Thursday, July 10, 2014Orlando, Florida


MEGATRENDS John Naisbitt 1982 Industrial Society → Information Society

Forced Technology → High Tech/High Touch

National Economy → Word Economy

Short Term → Long Term

Centralization → Decentralization

Institutional Help → Self Help

Representative Democracy → Participatory Democracy

Hierarchies → Networking

North → South

Either/Or → Multiple Options

2


Megatrends Current Convergence of Computer and

Communication Technologies

Movement from a Physics Age to the Biotechnology Age

Increasing Awareness of Climate Change

Government Involvement in the Financial Arena

Explosion of Social Media Involvement

Growing Difficulty with Sovereign Debt

Aging of Populations in Earth’s Most Prosperous Nations

Long Term Energy Shortage

Rise in China’s Economic Power

3

4


Megatrends are certainly important

However, it is hard to exploit them successfully because:

• They are well known

• They are too general to provide specific guidance

Buried within Megatrends are MiniTrends


MiniTrends……are emerging trends that are of a scope and importance to represent attractive business opportunities to individuals and organizations that are:

Alert enough to recognize them

Perceptive enough to appreciate them

Clever enough to take advantage of them

5


MiniTrends Offer Real Opportunitiesto YOU and Other Individuals!

Characteristics of a Great MiniTrend:

Far enough along to make projections

Promises to be significant in 2-5 years

Not yet appreciated widely

Value-driven purpose drives passion

6


Energy Needs

(Megatrend)

Energy Needs

Renewable Energy

(Still a Megatrend)

Energy Needs

Renewable Energy

(Still a Megatrend)

Wind Power

Energy Needs

Renewable Energy

Wind Power

Wind

Generator Controls

This is a Minitrend 7


MiniTrends Assist: Entrepreneurs to identify, assess, and

exploit attractive new business opportunities Decision Makers in small and mid-size

businesses to gain advantage by recognizing and utilizing emerging trends

Innovative Thinkers in larger businesses to distinguish themselves by their special insights and perceptiveness

Investors to uncover attractive new investment opportunities

Job Seekers to define employment opportunities

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I. Attractiveness to Business Community

II. Attractiveness to You

9


Business Community

Excites Enthusiasm

Opens up opportunities

Special Differentiating Factors

10


Factors to Be Considered The exact nature of the Minitrend

The special attractiveness of the Minitrend to customers

The size and nature of the potential markets

Where the Minitrend is in the emergence process

Potential implications of exogenous factors 11


Size and Nature of Potential Market Define markets MiniTrend can serve Consider future markets Consider ancillary markets Consider social implications

12


Where in Development Process?

13


Determine where in MiniTrend is in the Emergence Process

Fisher-Pry Substitution Model

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Time

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ins

talle

d B

as

e Fisher-Pry Model

Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

PercentageNew

y(t) =1

1 + e-b(t-a)

Basic F

P C

harts 2004

14


Personal Attractiveness Clarify personal interests

Consider your personal situation

15


The MiniTrend Concept allows both you and your colleagues to

demonstrate and utilize your imagination, your intelligence, your perceptiveness, your desire to make

the world a better place, and

YOUR PASSION16


It’s also a lot of fun!

These and other non-sourced photos: Clipart.com (A division of Vital Imagery Ltd.) or TFI

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What Are MiniTrends and Why Are They

ImportantJohn VanstonChairman

Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014: Insight, Innovation & StrategyAuthor, MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends(512) 258-8898www.minitrends.com ● www.tfi.com ● [email protected]

Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.

MiniTrends and Macro-Change: Turbo-Charging

Your FutureMaster Session for

Thursday, July 10, 2014Orlando, Florida

John Vanston Chairman Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014: Insight, Innovation & Strategy Author,...

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