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The world is rapidly changing….. !!! ??? Islamic University Bahawalpur November 2011 Hartmut Wellerdt
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The world is rapidly changing.. !!! ???

Islamic University Bahawalpur November 2011Hartmut Wellerdt

Pakistans Ranking 2007 2009 in Global Competition*

2006-2007 Rank out of 83 122

2007-2008 92 131

2008-2009 101 134

Comparison: Ghana 102 Senegal 100 Germany 3

* Global Competition Report (GCR) of the World Economic Forum 2009CSF Competitiveness Support Fund, www.competitiveness.org.pk

The Most Problematic Factors for Doing Business in Pakistan*1. Government instability / coups 2. Corruption 3. Inefficient government bureaucracy

4. Inflation5. Inadequate supply of infrastructure

6. Inadequately educated workforce7. Policy instability 8. Access to financing 9. Crime and theft 10. Poor work ethic in national labor force* acc. to GCR Executive Opinion Survey as experienced by the countrys top business representatives

What is change ?

Change is the coping process of moving from a present state to a desired future state.



Individuals, groups, and organisations undertake change in response to dynamic internal and external factors that alter current realities, presenting opportunities as well as threats.

What is changing ?

- Demography and Society

- Cultural Environment - Economic Environment - Political / Legal Environment

What are the indicators and implications ?

The External and Internal Forces for ChangeExternal ForcesDemographic Characteristics *Age *Education * Skill level *Gender * Immigration Technological Advancements * Manufacturing automation * Office automation Market Changes * Mergers and acquisitions * Domestic and international competition * Recession Social and Political Pressures *War *Values * Leadership

Internal ForcesHuman Resource Problems/Prospects *Unmet needs *Job dissatisfaction *Productivity *Participation/ *Absenteeism and suggestions turnover Managerial Behaviour/Decisions * Conflict * Leadership * Reward systems * Structural reorganization

The need for change

Demography and Society 12 % growth in world population from year 2000 to 2010- of this total growth 96 % will be from the developing world- 25 % from Africa - 62 % from Asia - 10 % from Latin America

Decline of EUR population minus 1,1 %- Italy from 57,5 mio to 45 mio by 2100 - Germany from 80 mio to 68 mio

Need for International Immigration- Germany needs to import half a mio immigrants a year to keep the working-age population stable up to 2050 at current birth and death rates

Demography and Society contd AffluenceGermany Money rich / Time rich Money rich / Time poor Money poor / Time rich Money poor / Time poor 5% 45 % 30 % 20 % Pakistan ? ? ? ?


Time/ Money classification is important dimension for product choice Widening gap between haves and have- nots - throughout EUR 20% of households regard social transfers as theonly source of household income

Demography and Society ( contd ) Age related trends- demography is DEAD ! Marketing and media planning by the numbers is obsolete - life stage, not chronology; age determins less - movement to keep young(er); stay young at heart, at least - Marketers must tailor content to people with common priorities and purchasing patterns: that means clusters, not demographic segments - Childhood getting shorter; youth period longer ( Kidults )

Demography and Society ( contd ) Age related trends- Teenagers: a global group with many common traits ( music, fashion)

- Teens like innovative and original brands - Baby boomers very concerned about health and well-being; most concerned about environmental issues and mistrustful of Multinationals - ageing population is the dominant force of all EUR countries and Japan - western seniors are healthier, wealthier, more numerous, and live longer BUT: 8 out of 10 of the staff in advertising and marketing are below 40

Demography and Society ( contd ) Age related trends- France, working after 60 has been exceptional - Netherlands, only 20 % of those 60 64 are in work - Germany, purchasing power of seniors is 30% above that of people younger than 50; and they spend more - older getting younger; they do not behave their age

Demography and Society ( contd ) Age related trends

- pressures on pension systems and social security systems ( life expectancy ) - the country with the highest proportion of over-60 citizens in 2020 will be Japan ( 31 % ) followed by Italy, Greece and Switzerland - longevity mainly due to mastering on infectious deseases, not to mastering aging

By 2025 ... there will be more people in Japan over 80 years of age than there

will be children under 10 years of age.The situation will be similar in many European countries, e.g. Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Spain

Source :

Institute of Population Problems - "Future Population Projections" (May, 1997)

Population " Pyramid"Switzerland

1910Age Range100 + 90 - 94 80 - 84 70 - 74 60 - 64 50 - 54 40 - 44 30 - 34 20 - 24 10 - 14 0-4 300 200 100 0 100 200 300




300 200 100 0 100 200 300

300 200 100 0 100 200 300




Source : Office Fdral de la Statistique 2002

Demography and Society ( contd ) Evolution in the structure of family- a new type of family is emerging due to factors like birth rates, more working women - the average EUR household size has fallen from 3.2 to 2.7 in the last 15 years - 40 % of all EUR families have no children at all; just 5 % have 3 or more - increased longevity is leading to a vertical family; more generations in a family - growing divorce rate in the western world

Demography and Society ( contd ) Evolution in the structure of family- more working women/ dual income households- female employment all over EUR rose steadily to 60 % ( 2009 ) - women are increasingly financially independent

- working patterns changing ( week-end, night, at home) - Men are more brand conscious than women ( acc. to a US- study ) - attitudes towards the influence of minority groups ( immigrants ) differ widely- very positive in the US; negative in parts of the EU

Demography and Society ( contd ) Evolution in the structure of family- the muslim population is growing in EUR and North America - UK ethnic community much younger than the white population and well educated - US minorities rapid growth- by 2030, US minorities are expected to outnumber the majority - the US will have the second largest Spanish speaking population in the world - by 2050, 50% of the US population will be non-white - Decrease of traditional socio- economic segmentation

Health Awareness- is a broad term covering concerns like weight/ calories, physical health, nutrition and content of additives, cholesterol, sodium, salt, sugar. - awareness of health and nutrition increasing - need for fitness activities is growing

- concern about health is often more a female issue- older baby boomers have become attentive to health awareness- healthy eating is on the rise

- health awareness is linked to education - consumers are increasingly expecting detailed labels even though they often do not read them

OBESITYDecember 13 - 19, 2003

An Expanding Problem

Childhood Obesity30% of Canadian between 7 - 13 yrs are overweight, 14% are obeseCanadian Medical Association Journal,

November 2000

5 - 18% of the Chinese youth are obeseWorld Health Organisation 2001

Obesity in children grew 17% in France and 200% in the UK in the last ten years

Obesity Trends in England 1980 - 201030

Percent Obese ( BMI > 30 )

25 20 15 10 5


Men0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

UK National Audit Office, 2002

Health awareness ( contd ) Obesity- 61 % of American adults are either overweight or obese - Britain has become one of the fattest nations in EUR

- over the last 20 years, the proportion of overweight children has increased by more than 50 % and the number of extremely obese children has doubled ( the condition is often inherited )- obesity is becoming a global problem - many countries face the double burden of under- nutrition and overnutrition - acc. to a Boston University report ( 2005 ), Fat lowers a mans IQ !

Health awareness ( contd ) Vegetarians- vegetarianism is both rising in profile and gaining popularity among a wide consumer base

- motives for meat reduction: health, ethnics, and the environment- vegetarianism often because of religion - true vegetarianism is heavily concentrated in the younger age groups- about one-third of U.S. teenagers think that being a vegetarian is in ( acc. to American Dietetic Ass. )

Health awareness ( contd ) Sensory trends for Food & Drink- simple ( salt ) complex ( herbal salt ); BRANDING !! - preserved fresh - artificial nature ( organic and all nature ) - hot cold ( carbonated soft drinks replacing coffee )- cold drinks with a healthy image are growing fastest ( mineral water )

- bland spicy ( ethnic food help drive this ) - deep frying grilling or steaming

Faster Time- high levels of stress - increasing time pressure ( Internet ) - quantity and quality of time declining- traffic congestion - flexible working hours - out-of-town work and shopping - need for continuous education - anxieties about crime - intrusiveness of mobile phone, pagers..

- 24 hours opening ( late night shopping ) - meal in car; dashboard dining

- take away meals ( 55% of US restaurant meals ordered are take away )

Environmental Awarenessconcern about the environment has become an issue to an increasing proportion of the population. The change from a minority, radical, political interest to a widespread self- interest has happened, or will in virtually all countries. - pressure should be expected from legislation; pre- empt ! - the environmental debate has moved towards sustainable development- climate change protection through energy conservation - greenhouse gas reduction ( Kyoto Protocol ) - Packaging in question ( ongoing trend towards convenience and FF )

- environmental awareness is linked to age, education, and gender

Media and Brand CommunicationThe future of the media landscape is difficult to predict- N.Negroponte 1995 confidently stated the demise of television by the year 2000, everyone would use the Internet instead - Forrester predicted US$ 8 billion spent on interactive TV in 2002, rising to US$ 48 billion in 2005; reality was 7.5 billion in 2005

- people are the drivers of change, social context is fundamental for understanding what the future might hold - all media ( from traditional print to www ) play an important role in the development of global culture. While local channels often dominate, the content is often foreign, often American

Media and Brand Communication- Media choice grows exponentially media time for the consumer stays the same - TV will continue to be a major medium, but audiences are fragmenting - newspaper screen versions will continue to replace paper - text messaging has become a very important medium; esp. for children and young adults - esp. In Asia, advertisers are using SMS as an advertising medium - outdoor media is universally enjoyed esp. targeting young people - e- learning is common in schools and universities

Media and Brand Communication- e- commerce / online shopping is working better than ever ( e-Bay)

- Internet is a mass medium; first accessing the affluent and the young- Internet has changed the way we live our lives; the Internet promotes and facilitates diversity - Internet as a source of information before making a purchase - consumers increasingly avoid ads (Marketing by interrupting people) - TV and Internet advertising seen as the most intrusive

- Consumers are paying greater attention to a companys total corporate profile: environmental practices, work-place practices, ethics, transparency.

The Economy of Pakistan:Challenges and Opportunities

Pakistan has enormous economic potential which in the presence of the right policies and conditions can deliver a generation of high and sustainable growth necessary to address all social and infrastructure development challenges facing the country Pakistan has a unique geo- strategic location ( Gwadar Port ) Pakistan has a young and large workforce ( 45 % is employed in the rural agricultural sector ), and immensely rich natural resources

Challenges:+ the realization of high economic growth will depend on greater liberalization, deregulation and privatization

The Economy of Pakistan:Challenges and Opportunities ( contd.)

+ translating economic recovery into high and sustainable growth will depend on ensuring an enabling environment for investment and entrepreneurship with the state to act as facilitator of growth by ensuring good governance and effective institutions + one of the key hurdles hindering the true realization of Pakistans full economic potential is the recurrence of political volatility as well as worsening of the law and order and security situation + prepare an educated and skilled labor force + close the gender gap in education and jobs ( female workers only comprise 20 % of the total workforce ) + get inflation under control

The Economy of Pakistan:Challenges and Opportunities ( contd.)+ the rising tide of terrorism and extremism is providing to be the real stumbling block constraining the exploitation of Pakistans true economic potential+ power outages not only disrupt social life but also levy heavy financial losses on industries and their international competitiveness + Pakistans export base needs rapid product and market diversification. It needs to move away from traditional, less sophisticated exports to those driven by innovation, sophisticated technology and value- addition in order to be competitive in the international market The combination of internal and external growth impediments will continue to challenge the economy of Pakistan in the short- to mid- term scenario