IOC contributions to a Global Tsunami EWS and other ocean

generated hazards

Symposium on Multi-hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Geneva, 23 May 2006

Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC

Plate Tectonics

GFZ, Potsdam

Distribution of Large Earthquakes and Earthquakes Accompanied with Tsunami

with Tsunami

greater than M6.0

Tsunami probability based on historic data

F. Schindele, CEA

• 1965: IOC established the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean (PTWS) following th valdivia (1960) and Alaska (1964) tsunamis

28 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan,

Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa.

• Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrs• Well recognised international scientific program• Pacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levels• Direct humanitarian aim• Mitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property

IOC ICG/PTWS

• After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and immediate response of the UN and Governments

• March & April 2005: Two International Coordination meetings (Paris and Mauritius) for the Development of an Indian Ocean TWS

• June 21-30, 2005: the 23rd IOC Assembly approved resolutions for the establishment of a global strategy and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for

– the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS)– the Caribbean (ICG/CARIBE-EWS)– the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean

(ICG/NEAMTWS)

ICG/IOTWS

PTWCNWPTAC

WC/ATWC ICG/NEAMTWS

SWP-TWS

ICG/CA

Global and Regional Tsunami Warning Centers

http://ioc3.unesco.org/Indotsunami/

IO initial System for July 2006

Based on Existing:• Network of 26(29) National Information Centres [24/7]Fast Track implementations of projects to• upgrade existing seismographic network • improve existing sea-level network (key stations with 1min data transmission interval)• upgrade data and information communication system

Agreed Seismographic Stations

The Challenge for the IO

• We essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries and this work will be completed in 2006 for the rest.

• ICG/IOTWS is requesting a comprehensive Plan, incl. the country level

• the need of the development of the National Plans

Necessary Elements for Determination of Earthquake Location and Magnitude

Arrival Time of Seismic Waves (P and/or S waves)

Location (Latitude, Longitude and Depth)

Maximum Amplitude of Seismic Waves

Magnitude

P arrival S arrival

Maximum Amplitude

Seismic Wave

LISS/IRIS Waveforms: Large Earthquake

5minutes

data loss

data loss

There are about 20~30% stations JMA could not receive complete waveform data.

SAML

TRQA

RCBR

DWPF

BBSR

PTCN

WVT

Station Map

P S

P S

P S

P

P

P

P

SAML

TRQA

RCBR

DWPF

BBSR

PTCN

WVT

（ Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005 ）

Early Detection

JMA could receive complete waveform data from almost all stations.

Station MapP

P S

P

P

P

P

LPAZ

USHA

ILAR

STKA

PMG

CMAR

CTBTO/IMS Waveforms（ Chile M7.8, July 13,

2005 ）

Average Internet 82.14%CTBTO/IMS 99.67%

Data Availability

Data Availability (July 1,2005 ~ July 6, 2005)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100Data Availabilty (%)

perc

enta

ge

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO/IMS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300delay (sec)

perc

enta

ge

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO/IMS

CTBTO/IMS(under upgrading)

Data Transmission Delay

CTBTO/IMS : 30 seconds at most LISS :100 seconds on average IRIS :180 seconds on average

Earthquake Detection and Delay

LPAZ (Earliest

CTBTO/IMS station)

Earthquake Detection at JMA(30 seconds delay)

Earthquake Detection at JMA(100 seconds delay)

Seismic wave arrived at the CTBTO/IMS earliest station 110 seconds earlier than at

LISS earliest station.

JMA could detect the earthquakeby the CTBTO/IMS station 180 seconds earlier than by the LISS station.

SAML (Earliest

LISS station)

（ Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005 ）

Internet(LISS,IRIS)

Internet(LISS,IRIS)+

CTBTO/IMS

Depth Error (km)

Depth Error Estimated Hypocenter

Horizontal Error Estimated Hypocenter

Internet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+

CTBTO/IMS

Near Sumatra Islands

Internet(LISS,IRIS) Internet(LISS,IRIS)+

CTBTO/IMS

Near Chile (Southern America)

Horizontal Error Estimated Hypocenter

IOC contributions to monitoring other Hazards of ocean origin

• Storm – surges, JCOMM (IOC – WMO)• Tropical storms, JCOMM• Improving Storm and cyclones tracking and

landing forecasts, JCOMM• Extreme ocean wave weather (36 – 72 hours

forecasts• Ice Hazard, JCOMM• Oil Spills tracking and landing, IOC, WMO,

UNEP• Red Tides, IOC, FAO, WHO

• Development of Interoperable Regional EWS.• 03-05 Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth• 21-22 Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome• 14-16 Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad• 10-12 Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbados• 1-5 May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne• 22-24 May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice and to come:• 31 July-2 August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, Bali• Dec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, Venezuela

• Global Integration• Apply synergies and cost-efficiency into the development of a single

global meta-system• 24 of June 2006: Global Multi-hazard meeting in Paris, “Ad-hoc WG on the framework for a Global Tsunami and other Ocean-

related Hazards Early Warning System.”

IOC Strategy and implementation

For further information see:

http://www.ioc-goos.org/

http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami

http://ioc3.unesco.org/neamtws

http://ioc3.unesco.org/cartws

http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic