Introductory Introductory reflections on post-reflections on post-

normal sciencenormal scienceMatthias KaiserMatthias Kaiser

ASFPG, Hamburg AltonaASFPG, Hamburg Altona

17-19 January 200717-19 January 2007

Dimensions:Dimensions:

Decision stakes -> ValuesDecision stakes -> Values Uncertainty -> both ethically and Uncertainty -> both ethically and

epistemologically.epistemologically. [participation][participation]

BUT:BUT:

1.1. What are ”values” ?What are ”values” ?

2.2. What is ”uncertainty” ?What is ”uncertainty” ?a)a) In nature? -> complex / stochastic systems?In nature? -> complex / stochastic systems?

b)b) In knowledge -> inherent in all scientific In knowledge -> inherent in all scientific knowledge ?knowledge ?

3.3. The ups and downs of participation? The ups and downs of participation?

On values:On values:

The matter of a research project? EU The matter of a research project? EU project ?project ?

Certainly a collaborative, multi-Certainly a collaborative, multi-disciplinary effort.disciplinary effort.

Values are very much ”en vogue”.Values are very much ”en vogue”. The serve to explain failures and The serve to explain failures and

successes, but they also remain successes, but they also remain silent most of the time?silent most of the time?

At the core of our understanding of At the core of our understanding of ethical issues.ethical issues.

””Ethical issues” :Ethical issues” :

””Ethics” = the common platform for Ethics” = the common platform for dialogue on values and conflicting dialogue on values and conflicting interests.interests.

Values

Politics

Science / Industry The public(s)

Why values?Why values? Values have important functions: Values have important functions:

They are related to attitudesThey are related to attitudes They motivate action (or do they?)They motivate action (or do they?) They provide identity (individually, socially and They provide identity (individually, socially and

culturally)culturally) They are more stable than opinions and current They are more stable than opinions and current

preferencespreferences Values rest in the individual.Values rest in the individual. Hare: value judgements imply imperatives!Hare: value judgements imply imperatives! Others: ”Come on…! What about boredom, Others: ”Come on…! What about boredom,

apathy, weakness, self-contempt, despair apathy, weakness, self-contempt, despair etc? Those states of your mind can muddle etc? Those states of your mind can muddle up your nicest values!”up your nicest values!”

Hans Joas: Hans Joas:

In The Genesis of Values, 2000:In The Genesis of Values, 2000: ““values originate in experiences of self-values originate in experiences of self-

formation and self-transcendence” formation and self-transcendence” ““Identity, not in the sense of stable Identity, not in the sense of stable

features, but of a communicative and features, but of a communicative and constructive relationship of the person to constructive relationship of the person to himself and to that which does not belong himself and to that which does not belong to the self, is the precondition for creative to the self, is the precondition for creative intercourse with the Other and for an intercourse with the Other and for an ethos of difference” ethos of difference”

Includes the social dimension: discourse.Includes the social dimension: discourse.

Empirical research about Empirical research about values?values?

Transition from industrial society to post-Transition from industrial society to post-industrial society invited a number of industrial society invited a number of studies.studies.

Religioius values replaced by secular Religioius values replaced by secular values? (by Science?)values? (by Science?)

Materialistic values decline and Materialistic values decline and emancipative values enter? Reflexivity?emancipative values enter? Reflexivity?

Mirrored in support for technological / Mirrored in support for technological / scientific development?scientific development?

World Value Study + EurobarometerWorld Value Study + Eurobarometer

People with Emanciptive Values (%)

807570656055504540353025201510

Peo

ple

Sup

port

ing

Tech

nolo

gica

l Dev

elop

men

t (%

)

100

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30 Rsq = 0.5573

Jordan 01

Jordan 99

Morocco01

Egypt01

Slovakia 96

Croatia 95

Serbia 96

Uganda 01

Azerbai96

Armenia 95

Moldova 96

Tanzan01

Uruguay 96

Russia 95

Russia 90

Latv ia 90

Austria 90

Portugal 90

Taiwan 95

China 90

Pakistan 02

Bulgaria 98

Slovenia 95

Slovenia 90

E Germany 90

Czech 96

India 96

Chile 96

Nigeria 00

Nigeria 90

Brazil 96

Brazil 90

Switzerland 96

S Korea 90

Finland 96

Finland 90

Sweden 00Sweden 96

Norway 96

Hungary 90

South Africa 00'

Japan 00

Canada 01

Canada 90

USA 00

USA 95

USA 90

Ireland 90

Spain 96'Belgium 90

Denmark 90

Netherlands 90

W Germany 97

Britain 90

France 90

Attitudes to technology Attitudes to technology & science& science

Not the realm of denotationNot the realm of denotation Rather the realm of connotation:Rather the realm of connotation:

Implications and associationsImplications and associations What it means to people, rather than What it means to people, rather than

what it iswhat it is Drawing on a range of cultural Drawing on a range of cultural

values and experiencesvalues and experiences

Methodological Methodological difficultiesdifficulties

Baruch Fischhoff: 3 paradigmsBaruch Fischhoff: 3 paradigms Philosophy of articulated valuesPhilosophy of articulated values Basic values approachBasic values approach Partial perspectives (imperfect grasp Partial perspectives (imperfect grasp

on some aspects of values)on some aspects of values)

Some methodological Some methodological constraintsconstraints

Kahnemann & Tversky and others:Kahnemann & Tversky and others:Rational choice theory of limited Rational choice theory of limited descriptive valuedescriptive value The framing problemThe framing problem Attitudes through evalution of favour or Attitudes through evalution of favour or

disfavourdisfavour Mental representartions: no extensionality but Mental representartions: no extensionality but

intensional objects – description relativeintensional objects – description relative Intensity varies Intensity varies Prototype representationsPrototype representations Measures vary – money no good measureMeasures vary – money no good measure

Matter for a new project?Matter for a new project?

3 questions:3 questions: Are there values or are there not?Are there values or are there not? If there are values, how do they If there are values, how do they

function?function? And how can we possibly know / learn And how can we possibly know / learn

about them?about them? The dialectics of us and values – The dialectics of us and values –

mutual constitution?mutual constitution? How and why do values change?How and why do values change?

Understanding

Values:Philosophy,

history, culture

Subjecting values to

debate

Measuring values

for science

Concepts for value change

The methodology of value study

On uncertainty:On uncertainty:

Complexity in nature:Complexity in nature: Systems theory: Foerster, Bertalanffy(?), Systems theory: Foerster, Bertalanffy(?),

Maturana & Varela, Bateson & Watzlawick, Maturana & Varela, Bateson & Watzlawick, Luhmann etcLuhmann etc

Feedback, self-organisation, collapse & Feedback, self-organisation, collapse & maintainance, boundaries, perspectivity maintainance, boundaries, perspectivity (frames), leverage-points & change, etc.(frames), leverage-points & change, etc.

ASFPG workshops planned:ASFPG workshops planned: On Biology & resilience (Folke)On Biology & resilience (Folke) On LuhmannOn Luhmann On VarelaOn Varela

Epistemic uncertainty:Epistemic uncertainty:

Funtowicz & Ravetz:Funtowicz & Ravetz: Absence of adequate information (for a Absence of adequate information (for a

given purpose)given purpose) Inexacteness, unreliability, border to Inexacteness, unreliability, border to

ignoranceignorance Multi-dimensionalMulti-dimensional In degreesIn degrees

But:But: Always present in scientific knowedgeAlways present in scientific knowedge Can increase or decrease with new Can increase or decrease with new

knowledgeknowledge

Question:Question:

How can uncertainty be positively How can uncertainty be positively defined?defined?

(if at all?)(if at all?) What is the metaphysics / What is the metaphysics /

epistemology of uncertainty?epistemology of uncertainty?(the dappled world?)(the dappled world?)

An answer?An answer?

Failure of traditional philosophy of Failure of traditional philosophy of sciencescience Based on dual polarity: theory and Based on dual polarity: theory and

experienceexperience Promise in 3-step approach Promise in 3-step approach

”phenomenal constructivism” ?”phenomenal constructivism” ? Woodward & Bogen, Kaiser, BrownWoodward & Bogen, Kaiser, Brown [Hacking, Cartwright & LSE school?][Hacking, Cartwright & LSE school?]

The hypothetical-deductive The hypothetical-deductive model of scientific model of scientific

reasoning:reasoning: Theories as deductive Theories as deductive

structures of structures of statements.statements.

Theories explain and Theories explain and predict.predict.

Theories are tested, Theories are tested, not necessarily not necessarily falsified or verified.falsified or verified.

Upholds a difference Upholds a difference between theoretical between theoretical statements and statements and empirical statements.empirical statements.

Has no particular role Has no particular role for the manipulating, for the manipulating, practical side of the practical side of the scientific enterprise.scientific enterprise.

An example:An example:From Continental Drift to Plate From Continental Drift to Plate

Tectonics.Tectonics. Alfred Wegener – Alfred Wegener –

an outsider with a an outsider with a popular idea.popular idea.

The ”Bermuda-triangel” The ”Bermuda-triangel” in philosophy of sciencein philosophy of science

Thomas KuhnThomas Kuhn

PositivismPositivism Karl Karl PopperPopper

How I conceive of How I conceive of science:science:

Not two, but three basic Not two, but three basic units:units:theories, phenomena, and theories, phenomena, and datadata

Theories are families of Theories are families of modelsmodels

Phenomena are the Phenomena are the objects of theoriesobjects of theories

Data are the foundation of Data are the foundation of phenomenaphenomena

Not deductive model of Not deductive model of statements, but rather statements, but rather structural representationstructural representation

Has an ”inductive” step Has an ”inductive” step from data to phenomenafrom data to phenomena

Has a ”deductive” or Has a ”deductive” or subsumptive element from subsumptive element from theory to phenomena.theory to phenomena.

My view: My view: Science as Science as representing and representing and interveningintervening

””The Dappled World” – The Dappled World” – Collage on realityCollage on reality

Pluralism on method, Pluralism on method, yes; but always explicityes; but always explicit

Progress of knowledge Progress of knowledge through discovery of through discovery of new phenomena, and new phenomena, and new models to explain new models to explain them. them.

Science is always Science is always contextual.contextual.

Always subjective and Always subjective and objective elementsobjective elements

Still aiming at inter-Still aiming at inter-subjectivitysubjectivity

””Stepwise abstraction”?Stepwise abstraction”? Gaining information – at a priceGaining information – at a price

Singularities lost, generalities won?Singularities lost, generalities won? The question of retrievabilityThe question of retrievability

Description and manipulationDescription and manipulation Adequate to what? [test?]Adequate to what? [test?] Flexible or replaceable when?Flexible or replaceable when? How can concepts become ”more real How can concepts become ”more real

than things”?than things”? Uncertainty as the Janus-face of Uncertainty as the Janus-face of

knowledge?knowledge? Infinite but directional quest?Infinite but directional quest?