Introduction to Pipeline Risk Assessment

8/2/2019 Introduction to Pipeline Risk Assessment

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Laila Utari Ratna PuspitaFakultas Teknik Mesin dan Dirgantara


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1. The Science and Philosophy of Risk

Entropy is a measureof the disorder of a

system

Entropy must alwaysincrease in the

universe and in anyhypothetical isolated

system within it

To offset the effects of entropy, energy mustbe injected into any

system. Withoutadding energy, the

system becomesincreasinglydisordered


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The Scientific Method

Methodology:

Observe a phenomenon Hypothesize an explanation for the phenomenon Predict some measurable consequences that

your hypothesis would have if it turned out to betrue

Test the prediction experimentally

Modeling

The scientific method is a process by which wecreate representations or models of our world


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2. Basic Concepts

HazardHazard is a characteristic or group of characteristics that

provides the potential for a loss, e.g. flammability andtoxicity.

A Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study is a technique inwhich a team of system experts is guided through a formalprocess in which imaginative scenarios are developedusing specific guided words and analyzed by the team.

We can change the risk without changing a hazard.


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Risks

Risk is most commonly defined as the probability of an event that causes a loss and the potentialmagnitude of that loss.

RiskProbabilityof Failure

(PoF)

Consequenceof Failure

(CoF)


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Relatedrisk termsinclude:

Acceptablerisk

Tolerablerisk

RiskTolerance

Negligiblerisk

Risk is defined byanswering these questions:

What can go wrong?

How likely it is?

What are theconsequences?


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Failure(What can go wrong)

Definitions Of Pipeline Failure:

Unintentional release of pipeline contents

Loss of integrity

Failure to perform its intended function

Possiblepipeline failuremechanisms:

Third party

CorrosionDesign

Incorrectoperations


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Frequency,Statistics, and

Probability

Frequencyusually refers toa count of pastobservations.

Statistics refersto the analyses

of the pastobservations.

Probability isdegree of

belief, whichnormally utilizesstatistics butrarely based

entirely on them.


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Failure Rates

A failure rate is simply a count of failures over time. It is usually firsta frequency observations of howoften the pipeline has failed over

some previous period of time


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Consequences are sometimes grouped into direct and indirect categories .:

Property damages Damages tohuman health

Environmentaldamages

Loss of products

Repair costs Cleanup andremediation costs

Directcosts:

Litigation Contract violation Customer

dissatisfaction Political reactions Loss of market

share Government finesand penalties

Indirectcosts:


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RiskAssessment

Risk assessment is ameasuring process. It

must measure both theprobability and the

consequences of all of the potential events thatcomprise the hazard.

Using the riskassessment, we can

make decisions related tomanaging those risks.

Experts

Experts refers to peoplemost knowledgeable in thesubject matter. Theyre notrestricted to a scientist or

other technical person. Thegreatest expertise for a

specific pipeline systemprobably lies with theworkforce that has operatedand maintained that system

for many years. Theexperience and intuition of the entire workforce should

be tapped as much as is

practical when performing arisk assessment.


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Risk Management Risk management is a reaction to perceived risks. It is the set of actionsadopted to control the risk. Many challenging questions are implied inrisk management:

Where and when should resources be applied?

How much urgency should be attached to any specific risk mitigation? Should only the worst segments be addressed first? Should resources be diverted from less risky segments in order to

better mitigate risks in higher risk areas? How much will risk change if we do nothing differently?

The intention is not to make the risk disappear, but to minimizethem at least to the extent that no unacceptable risks remain.


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3. Uncertainty

Further adding to the uncertainty isthe fact that the thing being

measured is constantly changing.

Managers must control the rightrisks with limited resources becausethere will always be limits on the

amount of time, manpower, or moneythat can be applied to a risk situation.

It is usually best to assume that

Uncertainty = Increased risks


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5. Data collection

What will the data represent? The data are the sum of our knowledge about thepipeline section

How will the values be obtained?

Who will be performing the evaluations?

What manuals or procedures will be used?

How often will the evaluations be repeated?

Will hard proof or documentation be a requirement inall cases? Or can the evaluator accept opinion datain some circumstances?

What defaults are to be used when no information isavailable?


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What sources ofvariation exist?

Typical sources of variation in pipeline riskassessment include: Differences in the pipeline

section environment

Differences in the pipelinesection operation

Differences in the amount of information available on thepipeline section

Evaluator-to-evaluator variation in informationgathering and interpretation

Day-to-day variation in the waya single evaluator assignscores


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There are several steps to reduce thosevariations:

Improved documentation and procedures Evaluator training Refinement of the assessment technique to

remove more subjectivity Changes in the information-gathering activity

Use of only one evaluator


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Why are the data beingcollected?

The common link will bethe desire to create a

better understanding of the pipeline and its risks inorder to make

improvements in the riskpicture.

The secondary reasonsare: Identify relative risks hot spots Ensure regulatory compliance Set insurance rates Define acceptable risk levels Prioritize maintenance spending Build a resource allocation model Assign dollar values to pipeline

systems Track pipelining activities


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5. Conceptualizing A Risk Assessment Approach

Checklist for design

The following is a partiallist of considerations in

the design of a riskassessment system:

Purpose

Audience

General public or special interest group

Local, state, or federalregulators

Company-all employees

Company-managementonly

Company-specificdepartments only


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Risk identification Resource allocation Design or modify an operating disciplines Regulatory compliance for risk assessment Regulatory compliance for all required

activities Regulatory compliance waivers Project approvals Preventive maintenance schedules Due diligence Liability reduction Risk communications

Uses


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Users Internal only Technical staff only Managers Planning department

District-level supervisors Regulators Other oversight Public presentations


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Resources Data Software Hardware

Staff Money Industry


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Design

Scope Failure causes considered Consequences considered Facilities covered Scoring Direction of scale Point assignments

Resolution issues Defaults Zone-of-influence distance Relative versus absolute Reporting


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Formal vs. Informal RiskManagement

Formal pipeline riskmanagement is growing inpopularity among pipeline

operators and is increasinglymandated by government

regulations.

An informal approach to riskmanagement is the product of expert engineering consensusbuilt on solid experience. It is

simple, easy to comprehend andto communicate.


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RiskAssessmentBuilding Blocks

Checklists Safety review Relative ranking Preliminary hazard

analysis what -if analysis HAZOP study FMEA analysis Fault-tree analysis Event-tree analysis Cause-and-consequence

analysis Human-error analysis


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Fig.1.3 event-tree analysis


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8. Choosing A Risk Assessment Issues

Several questions to the pipelineoperator that may direct the choiceof risk assessment technique:

What data do you have? What is your confidence in the

predictive value of the data? What resources are available in

terms of money, person-hours,and time?

What benefits do you expect to

accrue in terms of cost savings,reduced regulatory burdens,improve public support, andoperational efficiency?


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Any completerisk assessmentmodel should beable to pass the

following four test:

The I didnt know that!test The why is that? test The point to a map test The what about__? test


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9. Quality And Risk Management

Severaldefinitions to

define quality are:

Fitness-for-use Consistency withspecificationsFreedom from

defects

Risk managementcan be thought of asa method to improve

quality


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Distinction between types of work performed in the name

of the customer:

Value added work

These are work activitiesthat directly add value to the

product or service

Necessary work

These are work activitiesthat are not value added, butare necessary in order tocomplete the value added

work

Waste

Task that are done routinely,but really do not directly or indirectly support thecustomer needs, are

considered to be waste


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10. Reliability

Reliability is often defined as theprobability that equipment,

machinery, or systems will performtheir required functions satisfactorily

under specific conditions within acertain time period


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Common reliability measurementand control efforts involve issues

of:

Equipment performance, asmeasured by availability, uptime,

MTTF, MTBF, and Weibullanalysis

Reliability as a component ofoperation cost or ownership

costs, sometimes measured bylife-cycle cost

Reliability analysis techniqueapplied to maintenance

optimization, including ReliabilityCentered Maintenance (RCM),

Predictive PreventiveMaintenance (PPM), and root

cause analysis


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THANK YOU

Introduction to Pipeline Risk Assessment

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