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Title slide PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR

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PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING 2

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What is consequence modelling? Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion) Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion, flow from release and concentration at distance) Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from overpressure or injuries from toxic concentration) 3 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING Content slide

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What is included in consequence modelling? -Dispersion (gas) -Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas) -Release (flow liquid and gas) -Explosion (overpressure) -Jet fire/pool fire (extent and thermal radiation) -Toxicity (gas) -Smoked and gas ingress (buildings) -Structural integrity -Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE) 4 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus software packages (several consequence models) Somewhat a question of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban area or rural area and topography) Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of project and time) Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for license and knowledge of the software) No single best software to solve all problems 5 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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Different methods and philosophy for consequence modelling Empirical consequence models (based on experiments) versus CFD models (advanced numerical calculations) 6 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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PHAST from DNVGL Canary from QUEST EFFECTS from TNO TRACE from Safer Systems FRED from Shell ALOHA from EPA Different methods and philosophy for consequence modelling Software established by consultant companies, authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and process industry) and software companies All of the software listed to the right is empirical consequence models SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING Light blue fact box 7

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Software package from DNVGL - Discharge and dispersion models - Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool fires and fireballs) - Explosion models - Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose) Continuously developed for over 30 years Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP, Total, Maersk and Shell) 8 SOFTWARE: PHAST

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Strengths of PHAST All-round Simple (i.e. easy to learn) Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software) Weaknesses of PHAST Limitations in congested areas Limitations in urban areas (i.e. obstacles and topography) 9 SOFTWARE: PHAST

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10 SOFTWARE: PHAST

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Ringsted, Denmark - 30 gas pipeline - 80 bar - shopping centre at 100 meters 11 EXAMPLE OF PHAST

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- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m 2 injuries from short exposure) 130 meter - Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m 2 fatalities from medium exposure) 100 meter - Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m 2 fatalities from short exposure) 70 meter 12 EXAMPLE OF PHAST

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- Flashfire (green - LEL) 100 meter - Flashfire (blue - LEL) 230 meter 13 EXAMPLE OF PHAST

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Software (free) from EPA in USA -Discharge and dispersion models -Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool fires and fireballs) -Explosion models -Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose) Part of the CAMEO software package (i.e. tools for emergency planning) 14 SOFTWARE: ALOHA

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- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m 2 injuries from short exposure) 80 meter - Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m 2 fatalities from medium exposure) 40 meter - Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m 2 fatalities from short exposure) 30 meter 15 EXAMPLE OF ALOHA

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- Flashfire (green - LEL) 340 meter - Flashfire (blue LEL) 500 meter 16 EXAMPLE OF ALOHA

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Short for: computational fluid dynamics Not a specific software (i.e. group of software) -CFX CFD from ANSYS Uses numerical methods and algorithms to solve and analyse problems that involve fluid/gas flows Could be applicable for wide range of problems 17 SOFTWARE: CFD

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Could be applicable for wide range of problems - Aerodynamics (e.g. aircrafts and cars) - Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships) - Power plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines) - Process equipment (e.g. flows and loads) - Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and cooling) - Marine structures (e.g. loads) - Environment (e.g. exhaust and dispersion) - Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and flooding) - Buildings (e.g. ventilation) 18 SOFTWARE: CFD

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19 SOFTWARE: CFD

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20 SOFTWARE: CFD

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21 SOFTWARE: CFD

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Strengths of CFD Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban areas and topography) Weaknesses of CFD Resources (e.g. man-hours, knowledge and economy) 22 SOFTWARE: CFD

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23 COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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24 COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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QUESTIONS? End slide 25