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Introducing PLANiTULSA, a presentation by John Fregonese
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Transcript of Introducing PLANiTULSA, a presentation by John Fregonese
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PLANiTULSA: PLANiTULSA: Tulsa Comprehensive Plan Tulsa Comprehensive Plan
UpdateUpdate
Implementing the Community’s Implementing the Community’s VisionVision
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People Turning 65 AnnuallyPeople Turning 65 Annually1996-20251996-2025
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Growth in Households without KidsGrowth in Households without Kids
Household TypeHousehold Type ShareShare
With ChildrenWith Children 12%12%
Without ChildrenWithout Children 88%88%
Single-PersonSingle-Person 34%34%
SourceSource: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth : Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth Riche, Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st CenturyReshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003)., HUD (2003).
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Approaching labor Approaching labor shortagesshortages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
(in m
illio
ns)
Annual change in US working age populationAverage annual job creation since WWII
Source: TIP Strategies; US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Census Bureau
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quality of place
knowledge
More Jobs
Buildings
Land
2010
2000
1990
1970
1980
evolutionary scale
evolutionary scale
evolution of ED goalsevolution of ED goals
Source: TIP Strategies
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What We Can Expect?What We Can Expect?Oil costs will continue to riseOil costs will continue to rise
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What About Climate Change?What About Climate Change?
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The future will not be like the past, nor the The future will not be like the past, nor the presentpresent
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Demographic Shifts
Growth concentrated in 55+ ages Growth concentrated in 55+ ages and 15-34 – Different housing and 15-34 – Different housing demanddemand
These shifts will result in more These shifts will result in more multi family and mixed use growth.multi family and mixed use growth.
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What We Can Expect?What We Can Expect?Oil costs will continue to riseOil costs will continue to rise
Concern for climate change will Concern for climate change will lead to scrutiny of carbon lead to scrutiny of carbon
emissionsemissions
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TrendsTrendsStrong forces will put a premium Strong forces will put a premium
on:on:1.1. Energy Efficient, sustainable Energy Efficient, sustainable
citiescities
2.2. Shorter TripsShorter Trips
3.3. Effective TransitEffective Transit
4.4. Great LivabilityGreat Livability
5.5. More Options for Travel, More Options for Travel, Housing and WorkHousing and Work
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The Emerging American The Emerging American VisionVision
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Many cities will compete to be Many cities will compete to be great places to live & workgreat places to live & work
Open Spaces and ParksAmenities near work
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Tulsa Population TrendsTulsa Population Trends
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
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Population – City of Tulsa Population – City of Tulsa
367,302
393,049
381,780
350,000355,000360,000365,000370,000375,000380,000385,000390,000395,000
1990 2000 2006
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Where People WorkWhere People Work
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Travel Time to WorkTravel Time to Work
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
Lessthan 5
5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 ormore
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ZoninZoningg
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3D - TAZs3D - TAZs
NorthNorth
DowntownDowntown
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Households 2000Households 2000
NorthNorth
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Households 2030Households 2030
NorthNorth
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Households DeltaHouseholds Delta
NorthNorth
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Employment 2000Employment 2000
NorthNorth
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Employment 2030Employment 2030
NorthNorth
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Employment DeltaEmployment Delta
NorthNorth
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Traditional Planning Traditional Planning ApproachApproach
DDecide – through analysis and ecide – through analysis and researchresearch
EEducate – the public about the ducate – the public about the solutionsolution
AAnnounce – the plannnounce – the planDDefend – the planefend – the plan
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Traditional Planning Traditional Planning ApproachApproach
DD EE AA DD
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Improved ProcessImproved Process
PLANPLAN
FUNDFUND
BUILDBUILD
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Improved ProcessImproved Process
VALUES VALUES (What do people want?)(What do people want?)
VISION VISION (How will our City provide (How will our City provide it?)it?)
STRATEGY STRATEGY (How do we (How do we implement?)implement?)
PLANPLAN
FUNDFUND
BUILDBUILD
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Team Organization ChartTeam Organization Chart
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Information Gathering and Kick-off Meeting
Get to know the city through the Get to know the city through the eyes of Tulsa residents. eyes of Tulsa residents.
Land Use: Visual analysis Land Use: Visual analysis of land use typesof land use types
Housing: Housing market Housing: Housing market analysisanalysis
Economic AssessmentEconomic Assessment
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Polling and Stakeholder Polling and Stakeholder InterviewsInterviews
50 In Depth Interviews50 In Depth Interviews 1,000 Phone Interviews1,000 Phone Interviews 1,000 Web Based Poll1,000 Web Based Poll 30 “Person on the Street” 30 “Person on the Street”
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Working with Staff and Working with Staff and StakeholdersStakeholders
Advisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee
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Community WorkshopsCommunity Workshops
3
2
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Two Scales – City and Two Scales – City and NeighborhoodNeighborhood
NeighborhoodNeighborhoodCityCity
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Workshop MapsWorkshop Maps
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Each table’s Each table’s plan is plan is
analyzed analyzed and and
recorded…recorded…
….and all notes and comments are recorded
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Traditional ApproachTraditional Approach
The PresentThe Present The FutureThe Future
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Scenario ApproachScenario Approach
Plausible stories Plausible stories about the futureabout the future
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-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
SF Det SF Att MF SF Det SF Att MF
Year 2000 Vision 2030
Owner Renter Year 2000
43%
57%
Modeling the Scenarios
Transportation AnalysisRoadway Impact
Ridership
Market ConstraintsDevelopment ProgramCommercial Demand
Housing Needs
Land Use ScenarioDevelopment
Vision 2030
52%
48%
Sustainability Urban Design
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Existing ConditionsExisting Conditions
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Scenario AScenario A
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Scenario DScenario D
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Indicators for Scenario Indicators for Scenario EvaluationEvaluation
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Total Infrastructure Cost (2005-2050)
Regional Highway
Infrastructure
(local roads, storm water,
electrical)
Regional Transit
$58.2B
$42B
$34B
Billions of 2007 Dollars
$49
$31
$19
$9
$5
$2
$6
$13
$0.2
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Option A Option B Option C
Infrastructure CostsInfrastructure Costs(Louisiana Speaks)(Louisiana Speaks)
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$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
Trend Vision
New Revenue
Existing Revenue
Fiscal Model ResultsFiscal Model ResultsCity Sales Tax Revenue Increase - 2000 City Sales Tax Revenue Increase - 2000
DollarsDollars
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Broad Outreach and Broad Outreach and Multiple Opportunities for Multiple Opportunities for
ResponseResponse
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What We’ve LearnedWhat We’ve Learned
VisionVisionWithout actionWithout actionIs HallucinationIs Hallucination
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Lessons from Scenarios and Lessons from Scenarios and Outreach Used to Develop Plan and Outreach Used to Develop Plan and
ProductsProductsComponentsComponents
Vision Vision
Comprehensive PlanComprehensive Plan
Development StrategiesDevelopment Strategies
Implementation and Implementation and Financial StrategyFinancial Strategy
5555
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Implementation Plan & Implementation Plan & Funding StrategiesFunding Strategies
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Monitoring SystemMonitoring System
72
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Upcoming EventsUpcoming Events June - Community Values June - Community Values September - City Wide WorkshopsSeptember - City Wide Workshops January - Community WorkshopsJanuary - Community Workshops April - ScenariosApril - Scenarios June - VisionJune - Vision September – Draft Plan & ImplementationSeptember – Draft Plan & Implementation Adoption Hearings – October - DecemberAdoption Hearings – October - December
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Thank YouThank You