Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)€¦ · The sponsors of GOOS are the...

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)

The Integrated Strategic D

esign Plan for the Coastal O

cean Observations M

odule of the Global O

cean Observing System

UN

ESCO

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

1, rue Miollis

75732 Paris Cedex 15, France

Tel: +33 1 45 68 10 10

Fax: +33 1 45 68 58 12

Website: http://ioc.unesco.org

Intergovernmental

Oceanographic

Com

mission

The Integrated, Strategic Design Plan

for the Coastal Ocean Observations Module

of the Global Ocean Observing System

UNESCO 2003

The Integrated, Strategic Design Plan for the Coastal Ocean Observations Module of the Global Ocean Observing System

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinionwhatsoever on the part of the Secretariats of UNESCO and IOC concerning the legal status of any country or territory, or itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitation of the frontiers of any country or territory.

Layout and design by Eric Loddé and Jonathan Wyss.

AcknowledgmentsThis report is the result of the hard work of many people.The Coastal Ocean Observations Panel would like to thank the invitedexperts, the IOC secretariat and the following persons for comments and suggestions for improvements to an earlier draft of thisplan: Eric Anderson, Dan Baird,Willem Behrens,Anthony Bowen, Erik Buch,Allyn Clarke, Hans Dahlin, Paul DiGiacomo, PeterDouglas, Henrik Enevoldsen, Lev Fishelson, Jon Grant, Mark Johnson,W. Michael Kemp, Frank Muller-Karger, Juha-Markku Leppä-nen, Jerry Miller, John Moisan,Amani Ngusaru,Worth Nowlin, Rodrigo Núñez,Temel Oguz, Jozef Pacyna, Pierre Pepin,Will Perrie,Ian Perry, David Prandle,Wilson Schaeffer,Anne-Maree Schwarz, Fred Short, Michael Sissenwine, Peter Smith, Charles Tang, QishengTang, Stephanie Turner, P. Nalin Wikramanayake, and Clive Wilkinson. Special thanks are due to Nic Flemming who provided a finaledit of the plan.

Meetings of the panel were funded by IOC, UNEP,WMO, FAO, ICSU with additional funds provided by the French IOC commit-tee, the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NOW), the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA), UNESCO’s Regional Bureau for Science in Europe (Venice), and the US Officeof Naval Research International Field Office (London).

For bibliographic purposes, this document should be cited as follows:

The Integrated, Strategic Design Plan for the Coastal Ocean Observations Module of the Global Ocean Observing SystemGOOS Report No. 125; IOC Information Documents Series N°1183; UNESCO 2003(Executive Summary included in English, French, Russian and Spanish)

The document is also available at http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/docs/doclist.htm

Printed in 2003By the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization7, Place de Fontenoy, 75 352 Paris 07 SP, France© UNESCO 2003(SC-2003/WS/13)


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary (English, French, Spanish and Russian) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Prologue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33

1.1 Purpose and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33

1.2 Large Scale External Forcings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35

1.3 Ecosystem Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36

1.4 An Ecosystem-Based Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37

1.5 The Research Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38

1.6 Cooperation, Coordination and Collaboration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39

2. Coastal Ecosystems:The Human Dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

2.1 Human Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

2.1.1 Population Growth in the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

2.1.2 Value of Ecosystem Goods and Services in the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43

2.2 Physical Alterations of the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44

2.2.1 Land-use and Land-based Sources of Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45

2.2.2 Dredging and Trawling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45

2.3 Introductions of Non-native Species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46

2.4 Petroleum Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46

2.5 The Coastal Ocean and Human Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47

2.5.1 Marine Vectored Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47

2.5.2 Harmful Algal Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

2.6 Harvesting Living Marine Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49


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3. Conceptual Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51

3.1 The Global Coastal Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51

3.2 A Multi-Purpose Observing System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52

3.3 Elements of an End-To-End Observing System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53

4. The Initial Subsystem for Coastal Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

4.1 The Common Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

4.2 Selecting the Common Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

4.2.1 Results of the Ranking Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58

4.3 Revisions Based on Scientific Experience and Expertise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58

4.4 Evaluating the Potential Common Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60

4.4.1 Classification of Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60

4.5 Elements of the Observing System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

4.5.1 Network for Coastal Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

4.5.2 The Global Network of Coastal Tide Gauges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

4.5.3 Fixed Platforms, Moorings, Drifters, and Underwater Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

4.5.4 Ships of Opportunity and Voluntary Observing Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66

4.5.5 Research Vessels and Repeat Surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66

4.5.6 Remote Sensing from Land-based Platforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67

4.5.7 Remote Sensing from Satellites and Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67

5. Combining Observations and Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69

5.1 The Role of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69

5.1.1 Estimating the State of the Marine Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69

5.1.2 Toward a Predictive Understanding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70

5.2 Overview of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71

5.2.1 Marine Services and Public Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74

5.2.2 Living Marine Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78

5.2.3 Public Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80

5.2.4 Ecosystem Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81

5.3 Data Assimilation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83

5.4 Conclusions and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84


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6. Data Management and Communications Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89

6.1 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89

6.2 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89

6.3 Data Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92

6.4 Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92

6.4.1 Existing Infrastructure and Expertise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92

6.4.2 Data Management Clusters at Different Spatial Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96

6.4.3 Data Archives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98

6.4.4 Data Management Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99

6.5 Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100

6.5.1 QA/QC and Metadata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100

6.5.2 Real-time and Delayed Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101

6.5.3 Related Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101

6.6 Data Streams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101

6.7 Providing and Evaluating Data Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102

7. Preliminary Guidelines for Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105

7.1 General Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105

7.2 Establishing the Global Coastal Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106

7.2.1 Data Sharing, Product Development and Marketing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106

7.2.2 The Importance of Regional Bodies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109

7.2.3 Potential Global Building Blocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110

7.2.4 Capacity Building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110

7.3 Phased Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111

7.4 Coordination and Oversight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113

Annexes

I. Panel Members and Contributing Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115

II. The Phenomena of Interest: Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121

III. Design Principles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129

IV. Procedure for Selecting Common Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133

V. Description of the Common Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149

VI. Linking the Coastal Modules of GOOS and GTOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159

VII. Examples of Potential Building Blocks of the Coastal Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163

VIII. Regional Bodies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .171

IX. URLs of Programmes and Projects Relevant to the Coastal Module of GOOS . . . . . .175

X. Linking Socio-economic Factors and Environmental Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .177

XI. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179

XII. Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187


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THE GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM

International agreements and conventions call forsafety at sea, effective management of the marineenvironment, and sustainable utilization of itsresources. Achieving the important and challenginggoals of these agreements depends on the ability torapidly detect and provide timely predictions ofchanges1 in a broad spectrum of marine phenomenathat affect (1) the safety and efficiency of marineoperations; (2) the susceptibility of human popula-tions to natural hazards; (3) the response of coastalecosystems to global climate change; (4) public healthand well being; (5) the state of marine ecosystems;and (6) the sustainability of living marine resources.We do not have these capabilities today.The pur-pose of establishing a Global Ocean Observing Sys-tem (GOOS) is to develop these capabilities.

The sponsors of GOOS are the IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO,the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), the World Meteorological Organization(WMO), and the International Council for Science(ICSU). GOOS is envisioned as an operational, glob-al network that systematically acquires and dissemi-nates data and data products on past, present andfuture states of the marine environment.The observ-ing system is being developed in two related andconvergent modules: (1) a global ocean module con-cerned primarily with detecting and predicting

changes in the ocean-climate system and improvingmarine services (led by the Ocean ObservationsPanel for Climate (OOPC), which is jointly spon-sored by World Climate Research Programme(WCRP), the Global Climate Observing System(GCOS); and GOOS) and (2) a coastal module con-cerned with the effects of large scale changes in theocean-climate system and of human activities oncoastal ecosystems, as well as improving marine serv-ices (led by the Coastal Ocean Observations Panel(COOP), which is sponsored jointly by the Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro-gramme (IGBP) and GOOS).

This report presents recommendations of the CoastalOcean Observations Panel (COOP) for the design ofthe coastal module of GOOS. It is divided into threesections:

(1) Rationale and goals (Prologue, Chapters 1 and2),

(2) Design (Chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6), and (3) Initial guidelines for formulating an Implemen-

tation Plan (Chapter 7).

The design plan describes the vision for an integrat-ed and sustained observing system for the coastalocean, defines the elements of the system, anddescribes how they relate to each other to achieve anoperational system. The plan provides a frameworkfor how the community of nations can make morecost-effective use of collective resources to address, ina more timely fashion, environmental issues andproblems of mutual concern. This is the first steptoward the formulation of an implementation planwhich is expected to be completed by the end of2004.


1

Executive Summary

1 Change - "to cause or turn or pass from one state to another; to alter or makedifferent, to vary in external form or essence" (Webster's New Twentieth CenturyDictionary, Unabridged Dictionary).Thus, if one is to detect and predict change,one must be able to detect and predict "states." In addition, the word "change" doesnot imply a particular time or space dimension. Changes occur over a broad spec-trum of scales (e.g., seconds to centuries) and variability on one scale is change onanother.

RATIONALE AND GOALS

Ecosystem goods and services are more concentratedin the coastal zone than in any other region of theglobe. Rapid increases in human uses of coastalresources and global changes in the ocean-climatesystem are making the coastal zone more susceptibleto natural hazards, more costly to live in, and of lessvalue to national economies.Conflicts between com-merce, recreation, development, environmental pro-tection, and the management of living resources arebecoming increasingly contentious and politicallycharged. The social and economic costs of unin-formed decisions are increasing accordingly.An inte-grated system of observations and analysis is neededto provide the data and information required toachieve six goals:

(1) Improve the safety and efficiency of marineoperations, whether conducted by governments,agencies, or commercial companies;

(2) More effectively control and mitigate the effectsof natural hazards;

(3) Improve the capacity to detect and predict theeffects of global climate change on coastalecosystems;

(4) Reduce public health risks;(5) More effectively protect and restore healthy

ecosystems; and (6) Restore and sustain living marine resources.

Achieving these goals depends on developing thecapability to rapidly detect and predict a broadspectrum of coastal phenomena from changes insea state, coastal flooding and sea level rise toincreases in the risk of disease, habitat modification,harmful algal blooms and declines in fisheries.Although each goal has unique requirements fordata and information, they have many data needsin common. Likewise, the requirements for datacommunications management are similar across allsix goals.Thus, an integrated approach to the devel-opment of a multi-use observing system is bothsensible and cost-effective.

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN

Rapid detection and timely prediction depend onthe establishment of an operational observing sys-tem that routinely and continuously provides

required data and information in the form, and ontime scales, specified by the users. Such a systemmust efficiently link three essential subsystems toensure the timely and routine delivery of data andinformation to users: (1) a monitoring (sensing)subsystem, (2) a subsystem for data acquisition,management and dissemination, and (3) a subsystemfor data assimilation and analysis based on scientificunderstanding.

In so doing, the coastal module must be designed toaddress many issues, including the diversity of thecoastal phenomena encompassed by the six goals andecosystem theory which posits that the phenomenaof interest are related through a hierarchy of interac-tions. In this context, the design must also take intoaccount the following global considerations:

• Design, implementation, and development ofthe observing system must be guided by the dataand information needs of user groups;

• The phenomena of interest are typically localexpressions of changes (e.g., ENSO events, land-based sources of pollution, extraction of livingresources) that propagate from large to smallscales across national jurisdictions and across theboundaries between air, sea and land;

• Although each of the six goals has some uniquedata requirements, they have many data require-ments in common;

• Global standards and protocols for observations,data exchange, and data management arerequired to ensure rapid and timely access todata and information;

• Many of the elements required to build theObserving System are in place and have been fora long time;

• Mechanisms for permanent and ongoing evalu-ations of the System in terms of cost-effective-ness, efficiency, quality control, and the timelyprovision of data and information must be estab-lished; and

• Those elements of the observing systemrequired to improve marine services, improvethe efficiency of marine operations, and forecastnatural hazards are more developed than thoserequired for ecosystem-based environmentalprotection and management of living resources.

Regional considerations include the following:


2

• Priorities and the capacity to contribute to andbenefit from the observing system vary amongnations and regions;

• Most international agreements and conventionsthat target environmental protection and the man-agement of living marine resources are regional inscope;

• Nations and Regional bodies provide the mosteffective venues for identifying user groups, prod-uct development, and marketing.

Thus, design and implementation must respect the factthat priorities vary among regions and should leave sys-tem design on the regional scale to stakeholders in theregions. At the same time, the six goals of the coastalmodule of GOOS have many common requirements.Consequently, a global network of observations canprovide economies of scale that will allow region-al observing system to be more cost-effective.Thisreport proposes a collaboration between the manage-ment of the common global network of observationsand the Regional GOOS Alliances. Such a structurewill have beneficial effects on the whole design andmanagement of GOOS.

A GLOBAL FORUM FOR REGIONAL

OBSERVING SYSTEMS

Clearly, the coastal module must include bothregional and global scale components.This can bestbe established by providing a mechanism fornational GOOS programmes and GOOS RegionalAlliances to play significant roles in (1) coordinatingthe development of a global network of observa-tions, data management, and analysis; (2) establishingcommon standards and protocols for measurements,data exchange, data management and analysis; (3) facilitating the transfer of technology and knowl-edge; and (4) setting priorities for capacity building.In this design, the global network

• Measures and manages a set of common vari-ables that are required by most, if not all, region-al systems (the common variables, Chapter 4);

• Establishes a network of reference and sentinelstations; and

• Links coastal observations to global observationsand interfaces global and coastal models (Chap-ter 5).

Regional observing systems are critical building blocksof the coastal module.The global network will not, byitself, provide all (or even most) of the data and infor-mation required to detect the state and predict changesin the phenomena of interest.There are categories ofvariables that are important globally, but the vari-ables measured and the time-space scales of meas-urement change from region to region dependingon the nature of the coastal zone and on userneeds. These include variables in the categories ofstock assessments, essential fish habitats, marine mam-mals and birds, invasive species, harmful algae, andchemical contaminants. For these categories, and forvariables such as sea ice that are restricted to certainregions of the globe,decisions concerning exactly whatto measure, the time-space scales of measurement, andthe mix of observing techniques are best made bystakeholders in the regions affected. Similarly, aspects offorecasting for coastal industries will depend upon theexistence of offshore oil and gas exploitation, majorports, ferry routes, tourist resorts, and recreational cen-tres. Guided by regional priorities, regional observingsystems provide data and information that are tailoredto the requirements of stakeholders, especially thoserequired to manage fisheries and land-based sources ofpollution.This is likely to involve increases in the reso-lution at which common variables are measured (e.g.,to 1 km or less) as well as the measurements of addi-tional variables at finer scales. In this way, regionalobserving systems both contribute to and benefit fromthe global network.

The global coastal network that contributes to thecost-effectiveness of regional observing systemsand links regional observing systems with eachother and the global ocean-climate observing sys-tems is the focus of the COOP design plan.

THE PRIMACY OF DATA MANAGEMENT

AND PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

Reducing the time required to acquire, process andanalyse data of known quality is a major goal thatrequires the development of an integrated data man-agement and communications subsystem. The objec-tives are to serve data in both real-time and delayedmode and to enable users to exploit multiple data setsfrom many different sources.This will require a hierar-chical distributed network of national, regional andglobal organizations that function with common stan-


3

dards, reference materials and protocols for quality con-trol; enable rapid access to and the exchange of data(e.g., metadata standards); and long-term data archival.Such a network will develop in an incremental way bylinking and integrating existing national and interna-tional data centres and management programmes.TheIOC committee for the International Ocean Data andInformation Exchange (IODE) and the data manage-ment programme area of the Joint Technical Commis-sion for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology(JCOMM) have the potential to oversee the coordi-nated development of the integrated data managementsubsystem (Chapter 6).

User groups and the data streams and products theyrequire must guide the development of the observingsystem.At the same time, rapid access to multi-discipli-nary data from many sources will catalyse modellingand product development.Thus, high priority must beplaced on the establishment of mechanisms to involveuser groups on a continuing basis in the definition ofproducts and in the establishment,operation and devel-opment of the coastal module.

National GOOS Programmes and GOOS Region-al Alliances (GRAs) provide the primary venue foridentifying user groups, specifying data and infor-mation requirements, and refining data-productsover time based on user feedback and new knowledge.Production, advertising and marketing data productsare essential to the development of broad user demandand, therefore, to the development of the observingsystem. The primary marketing and outreach toolspresently available are the GOOS Products and Ser-vices Bulletin and the JCOMM Bulletin.These reportproducts and product development activities and pro-vide a means for users to comment on the quality andusefulness of GOOS products.

THE OBSERVING SUBSYSTEM

The proposed global network is intended to measureand manage a relatively small set of “common” vari-ables that are required by most, if not all, of theregional observing systems (Chapter 4, Annexes IVand V). Although it is likely that the common vari-ables will emerge as the GRAs build the globalcoastal network over time, it is useful to select a pro-visional set of variables to help guide the design andimplementation of the initial global coastal net-

work.The recommended common variables are sealevel, water temperature and salinity, vector currents,surface waves, dissolved oxygen and inorganic nutri-ents, attenuation of solar radiation, bathymetry,changes in shoreline position, sediment size andorganic content, benthic biomass, phytoplanktonbiomass, and faecal indicators. These variables wereselected based on data requirements of the six goalsand the number of user groups that would benefitfrom the data and information.This “best-guess” listis important in that it provides insight into what thecommon variables are likely to be and highlights theimportance of improving capacity to sense changesin biological and chemical variables and the develop-ment of operational models for biogeochemical andecological processes.The physical forces on structuresand floating systems are an important part of theforecasting services to marine operators, and theseproducts are already quite advanced and dealt with inother publications.The modelling aspects of physicalparameters are discussed in Chapter 5. Given theimportance of environmental factors in terms of bothdetection and prediction of the phenomena of inter-est, it is not surprising that these dominate the provi-sional list for the coastal module.

A mix of techniques will be needed to provide therequired data streams.These fall into three general cat-egories: remote sensing (spatially synoptic observa-tions), in situ autonomous sensing (high resolution timeseries), and discrete sampling followed by laboratoryanalysis (for many chemical and biological variables).Elements of the monitoring subsystem should include(1) networks of coastal laboratories, (2) the global net-work of tide gauges, (3) fixed platforms, moorings andautonomous vehicles, (4) research and survey vesselsdedicated to sustained observations, (5) volunteerobserving ships, and (6) remote sensing from land-based platforms, satellites and aircraft.

LINKING OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS

Monitoring and modelling are mutually dependentprocesses, and the development of the fully integrat-ed system will require an ongoing synergy betweenmonitoring, advances in technology, and the formu-lation of predictive models (Chapter 5). Models willplay critical roles in the implementation, operationand development of the observing system. They areimportant tools used to estimate quantities that are


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not observed directly with known certainty, i.e., pre-dict past (hindcasts), present (nowcasts), and future(forecasts) states of coastal marine and estuarine sys-tems and the errors associated with such predictions.Note that the concept of a nowcast requiresextremely rapid delivery and processing of data inreal time, or near real time.

An overview of the current status of data assimilationand modelling for marine services and natural haz-ards, living marine resources, public health, andecosystem health (Chapter 5) shows the advancedstate of modelling for marine services and naturalhazards relative to those available for detecting andpredicting changes in phenomena that require meas-urements of biological and chemical variables. Thisunderscores the importance of research for thedevelopment of the coastal module.

BUILDING THE SYSTEM

The development of both the global ocean andcoastal components of GOOS are critically depend-ent on selectively and effectively linking, enhanc-ing and supplementing existing programmes (Chap-ter 7). The global coastal network will come intobeing through a combination of national, regionaland global processes. Although some elements ofthe system will be global in scale from the begin-ning (e.g., GLOSS, observations from space),national and regional coastal observing systems willbe the building blocks of the global coastal net-work. GOOS Regional Alliances (GRAs) are beingestablished to plan and implement regional observ-ing systems that will become the building blocks ofthe coastal module (Chapter 3, section 3.1). GRAsare encouraged to build the coastal module byestablishing partnerships with National GOOS Pro-grammes, Regional Seas Conventions, RegionalFishery Bodies, Large Marine Ecosystem Pro-grammes, and other bodies as appropriate.

Implementation, operation and evolution of a sus-tained observing system, such as the World WeatherWatch, will require government mechanisms toensure that candidate systems or elements of systemspass through four stages of development:

(1) The development of new knowledge, technolo-gies and models through research;

(2) Repeated testing in pilot projects to ensure reli-ability and acceptance by the research and oper-ational communities;

(3) Pre-operational use to ensure that incorporationinto the observing system leads to value-addedproducts; and

(4) Incorporation into an operational observing sys-tem that is sustained.

This must be a selective process, and criteria formigrating the building blocks of GOOS fromresearch to operational stages based on user needsmust be established.The first step in implementingthe coastal module of GOOS should be improvedsharing of existing data and products from observ-ing system elements to initiate their integration intoan observing system. Historical data and ongoingdata streams exist in large numbers, but many arenot now readily accessible to the many potentialusers.

RESEARCH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF

AN OPERATIONAL OBSERVING SYSTEM

The scientific and technical foundation for thedesign of the coastal module are provided byresearch programmes including those of the IGBP(Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone,LOICZ; the GLOBal ECosystem experiment,GLOBEC; and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study,JGOFS), the Census of Marine Life (CoML), Glob-al Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful AlgalBlooms (GEOHAB), the International Long-TermEcosystem Research (I-LTER) programme, and theSensor Intercomparisons and Merger for Biologicaland Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS).The knowledge and technologies generated bythese and other research programmes will berequired to realize the full potential of the observ-ing system.The observing system will, in turn, pro-vide guaranteed and continuous data on the envi-ronment that will be of enormous value to marinescience and education in much the same way thatdata required for weather forecasting benefit thescience of meteorology and that numerical weatherpredictions benefit the environmental sciences as awhole.

Priorities for research and development include thefollowing:


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• Formulate ecosystem models for more rapidassimilation and analysis of biological and chem-ical data.The goal is to develop these into oper-ational models that can be used to guide devel-opment of the system, determine climatologiesfor the common variables, and provide moretimely detection and prediction of changes inthe phenomena of interest.

• Establish requirements for remote sensing of thecommon variables and enhance remote sensingof coastal waters. Continue the deployment ofocean observing satellites and develop new satel-lite-based sensors for improved, higher resolu-tion observations of the common variables incoastal environments.

• Establish requirements for in situ sensing of keyvariables and enhance in situ sensing in coastalwaters to include more rapid detection of bio-logical and chemical variables with greater reso-lution and real-time telemetry.

COOPERATION, COORDINATION AND

COLLABORATION

The Integrated Global Observing Strategyinvolves the establishment of three linked observingsystems, the Global Climate Observing System

(GCOS), Global Terrestrial Observing System(GTOS), and GOOS – all taken together known asG3OS. From the perspective of the coastal module,GCOS is expected to provide data required to quan-tify atmospheric forcings; GTOS is expected to pro-vide data required to quantify land-based inputs; andthe global ocean module of GOOS is expected toprovide open ocean boundary conditions and datarequired to quantify basin-scale forcings.

Implementing the coastal module will require asophisticated level of cooperation, coordination andcollaboration among nations and existing pro-grammes to ensure the emergence of a global net-work as more national and regional systems come online.A critical aspect of this process will involve har-monizing the need for global coordination with userneeds based on national and regional priorities. Atpresent, there is no formal international mechanismin place to promote and guide this process.An inter-governmental commission, such as the Joint Techni-cal Commission on Oceanography and MarineMeteorology (JCOMM with the appropriate adviso-ry bodies), will be needed to facilitate multi-lateralagreements and to address legal issues that will arisefrom implementation of UNCLOS and other inter-national conventions.


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LE SYSTÈME MONDIAL D'OBSERVATION

DE L'OCÉAN

Conventions et accords internationaux prônent lasécurité en mer, la gestion efficace du milieu marin etl'utilisation durable de ses ressources. Les importantset ambitieux objectifs fixés par ces accords ne pour-ront être atteints que si l'on parvient à détecter rapi-dement et à prévoir en temps voulu les changements1

enregistrés par un large éventail de phénomènesmarins qui ont une incidence sur (1) la sécurité et l'ef-ficacité des opérations en mer ; (2) la vulnérabilité despopulations humaines aux risques naturels ; (3) laréaction des écosystèmes côtiers aux changements cli-matiques mondiaux ; (4) la santé et le bien-être pub-lic ; (5) l'état des écosystèmes marins ; (6) la pérennitédes ressources marines vivantes. Nous n'avons pas àce jour les capacités nécessaires. La mise en placedu Système mondial d'observation de l'océan(GOOS), qui a pour organismes de parrainage laCommission océanographique intergouvernementale(COI) de l'UNESCO, le Programme des NationsUnies pour l'environnement (PNUE), l'Organisationmétéorologique mondiale (OMM) et le Conseilinternational pour la science (CIUS), vise à lesdévelopper. Le GOOS est conçu comme un réseauopérationnel mondial d'acquisition et de diffusionsystématiques de produits et données sur l'état passé,présent et futur du milieu marin. Il est mis en placesous la forme de deux modules interdépendants et

convergents, à savoir : (1) un module océanique mon-dial essentiellement chargé de détecter et de prévoirles changements du système océan-climat, d'amélior-er les services océaniques (sous la direction duGroupe sur les observations océaniques pour l'étudedu climat (OOPC), qui est coparrainé par le Pro-gramme mondial de recherche sur le climat (PMRC),le Système mondial d'observation du climat (SMOC)et le GOOS) et (2) un module côtier chargé d'étudi-er les effets des changements à grande échelle du sys-tème océan-climat et des activités humaines sur lesécosystèmes côtiers, ainsi que les moyens d'améliorerles services océaniques (sous la direction du Groupedes observations relatives aux océans et aux zonescôtières (COOP), qui est coparrainé par l'Organisa-tion des Nations Unies pour l'alimentation et l'agri-culture (FAO), le Programme international sur lagéosphère et la biosphère (PIGB et le GOOS). Lerapport présente les recommandations du COOPpour la conception du module côtier du GOOS. Il estdivisé en trois sections :

1. Fondements et objectifs (prologue, chapitres 1et 2),

2. Conception (chapitres 3, 4, et 6) et3. Principes directeurs initiaux applicables à la

formulation d'un plan de mise en oeuvre(chapitre 7).

Le plan conceptuel décrit comment l'on se représenteun système intégré et durable d'observation de l'océancôtier, en définit les éléments et indique comment ilss'articulent entre eux pour donner un système opéra-tionnel. C'est un schéma de la manière dont la com-munauté des nations peut rentabiliser davantage l'util-isation des ressources collectives pour s'atteler entemps plus opportun aux questions et problèmes


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Résumé analytique

1 Changer - "transformer en quelque chose d'autre, faire passer à un autre état ;modifier quelque chose, le rendre différent ; subir une modification d'aspect, deforme, de nature, devenir différent" (Larousse encyclopédique). Pour détecter ouprédire un changement il faut, par conséquent, pouvoir détecter et prédire des"états". En outre, le terme "changement" n'implique pas une dimension temporelleou spatiale particulière. Il se produit des changements à de très nombreuses échelles(par exemple de quelques secondes à plusieurs siècles) et ce que l'on appelle vari-abilité à une échelle est un changement à une autre.

environnementaux d'intérêt mutuel. C'est le premierpas vers la formulation d'un plan de mise en oeuvrequi devrait être achevé d'ici à fin 2004.

FONDEMENTS ET OBJECTIFS

Les écosystèmes fournissent davantage de biens etde services dans la zone côtière que dans toute autrerégion du globe. L'augmentation rapide des modesd'utilisation des ressources côtières par l'homme etles changements à l'échelle planétaire du systèmeocéan-climat rendent cette zone plus vulnérableaux risques naturels, y renchérissent le coût de la vieet diminuent sa valeur pour les économiesnationales. Les rivalités d'intérêt entre commerce,loisirs, développement, protection de l'environ-nement et gestion des ressources vivantes sontsources de litiges de plus en plus nombreux et pren-nent un caractère de plus en plus politique. Le coûtsocial et économique de décisions prises sans dis-poser de renseignements pertinents s'accroît enconséquence. Il faut un système intégré d'observa-tion et d'analyse afin de fournir les données etinformations nécessaires pour atteindre les sixobjectifs ci-après :

1. améliorer la sécurité et l'efficacité des opéra-tions en mer, qu'elles soient menées par desgouvernements, des organisations ou des entre-prises commerciales ;

2. lutter contre les effets des catastrophesnaturelles et les atténuer plus efficacement ;

3. améliorer la capacité à détecter et prévoir l'in-cidence des changements climatiques à l'échellemondiale sur les écosystèmes côtiers ;

4. réduire les risques pour la santé publique ;5. protéger ou restaurer plus efficacement la

salubrité des écosystèmes ;6. régénérer les ressources marines vivantes et en

assurer la pérennité.

La réalisation de ces objectifs est fonction dudéveloppement de la capacité à détecter et prédirerapidement un large éventail de phénomènes côtiersqui vont de modifications de l'état de la mer, d'i-nondations côtières et de l'élévation du niveau de lamer jusqu'à une augmentation du risque de mal-adies, des modifications de l'habitat, des efflores-cences algales nuisibles et une diminution des pêch-es. Bien que chacun de ces objectifs exige des don-

nées et informations spécifiques, ils peuvent néces-siter de nombreuses données communes. Demême, leurs impératifs de gestion de la communi-cation des données sont similaires. Une approcheintégrée de la mise en place d'un système d'obser-vation polyvalent est par conséquent à la fois judi-cieuse et rentable.

CONCEPTION DU SYSTÈME

La détection rapide et la prévision en temps vouludépendent de la mise en place d'un système d'ob-servation opérationnel qui fournisse régulièrementet en continu les données et l'information requisessous la forme, et à l'échelle temporelle, spécifiées parles utilisateurs. Pour garantir aux utilisateurs la four-niture régulière et en temps voulu de données etd'information, un tel système doit associer efficace-ment trois sous-systèmes essentiels, à savoir : (1) unsous-système de surveillance (détection), (2) unsous-système d'acquisition, gestion et diffusion desdonnées et (3) un sous-système d'assimilation etd'analyse des données reposant sur leur compréhen-sion scientifique.

Ce faisant, il faut concevoir le module côtier demanière à répondre à de nombreuses questions,notamment la diversité des phénomènes côtiers rele-vant des six objectifs fixés et la théorie des écosys-tèmes en vertu de laquelle toute une gamme d'inter-actions relie les phénomènes étudiés. Dans ce con-texte, la conception du système doit également pren-dre en compte les considérations générales ci-après :

• la conception, la mise en oeuvre et ledéveloppement du système d'observationdoivent être fonction des données et de l'infor-mation nécessaires aux groupes d'utilisateurs ;

• les phénomènes étudiés sont généralement desmanifestations locales de changements (parexemple le phénomène ENSO, les sources ter-restres de pollution, l'extraction de ressourcesvivantes) qui se propagent en passant degrandes à de petites échelles et en traversantjuridictions nationales et limites entre mer terreet eau ;

• bien que ces six objectifs exigent chacun desdonnées spécifiques, beaucoup leurs sont com-munes ;

• des normes et protocoles mondiaux d'observa-


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tion ainsi que d'échange et de gestion des don-nées sont nécessaires pour garantir un accèsrapide et en temps voulu aux données et à l'in-formation ;

• beaucoup des éléments indispensables pourconstituer le système d'observation sont d'oreset déjà en place, et ce, depuis longtemps ;

• il faut établir des mécanismes d'évaluation per-manente et continue du système sur les plansde la rentabilité, de l'efficacité, du contrôle de laqualité, et de la fourniture en temps voulu desdonnées et de l'information ;

• les éléments du système d'observation néces-saires pour améliorer les services océaniques etl'efficacité des opérations en mer ainsi que pourprévoir les risques naturels sont plus développésque ceux nécessaires à la protection écosys-témique de l'environnement et à la gestion desressources vivantes.

Les considérations régionales portent notammentsur les points suivants :

• les priorités et la capacité à contribuer au sys-tème d'observation et en tirer parti varient d'unpays et d'une région à l'autre ;

• la plupart des conventions et accords interna-tionaux visant à protéger l'environnement etassurer la gestion des ressources marinesvivantes ont une portée régionale ;

• les organismes nationaux et régionaux sont lesinstances les plus appropriées pour recenser lesgroupes d'utilisateurs, décider du développe-ment des produits et de leur marketing.

Par conséquent conception et mise en oeuvredoivent respecter le fait que les priorités varientselon les régions et devraient laisser aux participantsrégionaux le soin d'élaborer le système à leuréchelle. Dans le même temps, les six objectifs dumodule côtier du GOOS ont de nombreuses exi-gences communes. C'est pourquoi un réseau mon-dial d'observation peut créer des économiesd'échelles qui permettront d'améliorer larentabilité du système régional d'observation. Leprésent rapport propose que les responsables de lagestion du réseau mondial commun d'observationcollaborent avec les alliances régionales pour leGOOS, ce qui aura des répercutions bénéfiques surl'ensemble de la conception et de la gestion de cedernier.

UN FORUM MONDIAL DE SYSTÈMES

RÉGIONAUX D'OBSERVATION

Le module côtier doit indubitablement comprendreaussi bien des composantes à l'échelle régionale quemondiale. Le meilleur moyen d'y parvenir est demettre en place un mécanisme qui permette auxprogrammes nationaux et aux alliances régionalespour le GOOS de jouer un rôle significatif dansplusieurs directions : (i) coordonner le développe-ment d’un réseau mondial d’observation, de gestiondes données et d’analyse ; (ii) mettre en place desnormes et protocoles internationaux de mesure,d'échange et de gestion des données, et d’analyse ;(iii) faciliter le transfert de technologie et des con-naissances ; (iv) établir des priorités pour le renforce-ment des capacités. Dans ce dispositif, le réseau mon-dial:

• mesure et gère une série de variables communesnécessaires à la plupart des systèmes régionaux,voire tous (variables communes, chapitre 4) ;

• il met en place un réseau de références et de sta-tions sentinelles ;

• et crée des liens entre observations côtières etmondiales et établit des interfaces entre modèlesmondiaux et côtiers (chapitre 5).

Les systèmes régionaux d'observation sont des com-posantes fondamentales du module côtier. Le réseaumondial ne fournira pas à lui seul toutes les donnéeset informations requises pour détecter l'état desphénomènes étudiés et en prévoir les changements(ni même la majorité d'entre elles). Certaines caté-gories de variables sont importantes à l'échellemondiale, mais les variables étudiées et leséchelles spatiotemporelles de mesure changentd'une région à l'autre selon la nature de la zonecôtière et les besoins des utilisateurs. C'est notam-ment le cas des variables concernant l'évaluation desstocks de poissons, les habitats essentiels de cesderniers, les mammifères et oiseaux marins, les espècesenvahissantes, les algues nuisibles et les polluantschimiques. Pour ces catégories de variables, commepour celles relatives par exemple à la glace de mer, quin'intéressent que certaines régions du globe, les par-ticipants des régions concernées sont les mieux placéspour décider exactement quoi mesurer, à quelleséchelles spatiotemporelles et grâce à quelle associationde techniques d'observation. De même, les prévisions


9

destinées aux industries côtières dépendront par cer-tains aspects de l'existence de plates-formes d'ex-ploitation pétrolière et gazière off shore, de grandsports, de routes de navigation pour les ferries, de lieuxde villégiature et de centres de loisirs. En se basant surles priorités régionales, les systèmes régionaux d'ob-servation fournissent des données et informationsadaptées aux besoins des parties prenantes, en partic-ulier celles nécessaires à la gestion des pêcheries et dessources terrestres de pollution. Pour cela il faudraprobablement mesurer les variables communes avecune meilleure résolution (d'un kilomètre ou moinspar exemple) et en mesurer d'autres à des échelles plusfines. C'est ainsi que, les systèmes régionaux d'obser-vations peuvent à la fois apporter leur contribution auréseau mondial et en tirer parti.

Le réseau côtier mondial, qui contribue à larentabilité des systèmes régionaux d'observationet les relie entre eux et avec les systèmes mondi-aux d'observation océan climat, est thème centraldu Plan conceptuel du COOP.

PRIMAUTÉ DE LA GESTION DES DONNÉES

ET DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DES PRODUITS

Réduire la durée nécessaire pour acquérir, traiter etanalyser des données de qualité connue est un objec-tif essentiel qui exige la mise en place d'un sous-sys-tème intégré de gestion des données et de communi-cation pour fournir des données aussi bien en tempsréel qu'en différé et permettre aux utilisateurs d'ex-ploiter des ensembles de données multiples provenantde nombreuses sources différentes. Il faudra à cette finun réseau hiérarchisé réparti rassemblant des organisa-tions nationales, régionales et mondiales qui utilisentdes normes,matériels de référence et protocoles com-muns de contrôle de la qualité ; permettent d'accéderrapidement aux données et de les échanger (parexemple normes applicables aux métadonnées) ; et unarchivage des données à long terme. Un tel réseau sedéveloppera progressivement en reliant et intégrantdes centres de données et programmes de gestionnationaux et internationaux existants. Le Comité dela COI sur l'Echange international des données et del'information océanographiques (IODE) et la partiedu Programme de la JCOMM consacrée à la gestiondes données permettent de superviser le développe-ment coordonné du sous-système intégré de gestiondes données (chapitre 6).

Les groupes d'utilisateurs et les flux et produits dedonnées dont ils ont besoin doivent orienter ledéveloppement du réseau d'observation. Simultané-ment, l'accès rapide à des données multidisciplinairesprovenant de nombreuses sources accélérera la mod-élisation et l'élaboration de produits. C'est pourquoiun degré élevé de priorité doit être accordé à la créa-tion de mécanismes visant à assurer la participationpermanente de groupes d'utilisateurs à la définitiondes produits et à la mise en place, au fonctionnementet au développement du module côtier.

C'est essentiellement dans le cadre des pro-grammes nationaux et des alliances régionalespour le GOOS (ARG) que l'on peut identifier lesgroupes d'utilisateurs, préciser les besoins en don-nées et information et affiner les produits de don-nées au fil du temps à partir des informations fourniesen retour par les utilisateurs et de nouvelles connais-sances. La production, le marketing des produits dedonnées et la publicité qui leur est faite sont indis-pensables à un fort accroissement de la demande etpar conséquent au développement du système d'ob-servation. Les principaux instruments actuellementdisponibles pour assurer le marketing et élargir lesgroupes d'utilisateurs sont le Bulletin des produits etservices du GOOS et le Bulletin de la JCOMM. Ilsrendent compte des produits et des activités dedéveloppement les concernant et offrent aux utilisa-teurs la possibilité de commenter la qualité et l'utilitédes produits du GOOS.

LE SOUS-SYSTÈME D'OBSERVATION

Le réseau mondial proposé a pour objet de mesurer etde gérer un ensemble relativement restreint de vari-ables "communes" nécessaires à la plupart des sys-tèmes régionaux d'observation, voire tous (chapitre 4annexe IV et V). On assistera probablement à l'émer-gence de variables communes à mesure que lesalliances régionales pour le GOOS construiront avecle temps un réseau côtier mondial mais il est néan-moins utile d'en sélectionner provisoirement unesérie dont s'inspireront la conception et la mise enoeuvre du réseau côtier mondial initial.Celles recom-mandées sont le niveau de la mer, la température et lasalinité de l'eau, les courants vectoriels, les ondes desurface, la teneur en oxygène dissout et les nutrimentsinorganiques, l'atténuation du rayonnement solaire, labathymétrie, l'évolution de la ligne de rivage, la taille


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des sédiments et leur contenu organique, la biomassebenthique, la biomasse phytoplanctonique et les indi-cateurs fécaux. Ces variables ont été choisies en fonc-tion des données nécessaires aux six objectifs fixés etdu nombre de groupes d'utilisateurs susceptibles d'enprofiter. La liste établie suppute au mieux les besoins.Son importance réside dans le fait qu'elle donne uneidée des variables communes probablement néces-saires et montre à quel point il importe d'améliorer lacapacité de détecter les modifications des variablesbiologiques et chimiques et d'élaborer des modèlesopérationnels représentant les processus bio-géochimiques et écologiques. L'évaluation des forcesphysiques qui s'exercent sur les structures et systèmesflottants constitue une part importante des services deprévision rendus aux opérateurs maritimes et ce typede produits est déjà très au point et abordé dansd'autres publications. Les différents aspects de la mod-élisation des paramètres physiques sont étudiés auchapitre 5. Compte tenu de l'importance des facteursenvironnementaux pour la détection comme pour laprévision des phénomènes étudiés, la placeprépondérante qu'ils occupent dans la liste provisoireétablie pour le module côtier n'a rien de surprenant.

Il faudra combiner différentes techniques, relevant detrois grandes catégories générales, pour fournir les fluxde données requises à savoir : la télédétection (observa-tions synoptiques spatiales), la détection autonome insitu (séries temporelles à haute résolution) et l'échan-tillonnage discret suivi d'une analyse en laboratoire(pour de nombreuses variables chimiques etbiologiques). Le sous-système de surveillance devraitnotamment comprendre (1) des réseaux de laboratoirescôtiers, (2) le réseau mondial de marégraphes, (3) desplates-formes fixes, des mouillages et des véhiculesautonomes, (4) des navires de recherche et de surveil-lance chargés d'effectuer des observations sur la durée,(5) des navires d'observation bénévoles et (6) desplates-formes terrestres, satellites et aéronefs de télédé-tection.

LIAISON ENTRE OBSERVATIONS

ET MODÈLES

La surveillance et la modélisation sont des processusinterdépendants et la mise en place du systèmepleinement intégré exigera une synergie constanteentre surveillance, progrès technologiques et formula-tion de modèles prévisionnels (chapitre 5). Les mod-

èles joueront un rôle essentiel dans la mise en oeuvre,le fonctionnement et le développement du systèmed'observation. Ils sont très utiles pour évaluer quanti-tativement des facteurs qui ne sont pas directementobservés avec un degré de certitude connu, par exem-ple l'état passé (prévisions a posteriori), présent (prévi-sions immédiates) et futur (prévisions à terme) dessystèmes marins côtiers et des estuaires, ainsi que leserreurs qui vont de pair. Il convient de noter que lanotion de prévision immédiate exige la fournitureextrêmement rapide des données et leur traitementen temps réel ou quasi réel.

Un coup d'œil à la situation actuelle en matière d'as-similation et de modélisation des données concernantles services océaniques et les risques naturels, lesressources marines vivantes, la santé publique et lasanté des écosystèmes (chapitre 5) montre que lamodélisation est plus avancée pour les servicesocéaniques et les risques naturels que pour la détec-tion et la prévision des changements qui affectent lesphénomènes exigeant la mesure de variablesbiologiques et chimiques, ce qui souligne l'impor-tance de la recherche pour le développement dumodèle côtier.

MISE EN PLACE DU SYSTÈME

Pour développer les deux composantes mondiales duGOOS, océanique et côtière, il est absolument indis-pensable de lier entre eux,d'améliorer et de compléterde manière sélective et efficace des programmesexistants (chapitre 7). C'est l'association de processusnationaux, régionaux et mondiaux qui donnera lejour au réseau côtier mondial. Bien que certains élé-ments du système soient à l'échelle planétaire dès ledépart (par exemple, le GLOSS, les observationsdepuis l'espace), ce sont des systèmes nationaux etrégionaux d'observation côtière qui constitueront lesystème côtier mondial. Des alliances régionales pourle GOOS (ARG) sont instaurées pour concevoir etétablir des systèmes d'observation régionaux quideviendront les éléments constitutifs du module côti-er (chapitre 3, section 3.1). On les encourage à met-tre en place le module côtier grâce à des partenariatsavec des programmes nationaux pour le GOOS, desConventions sur les mers régionales, des organesrégionaux responsables des pêches, des programmesrelatifs aux grands écosystèmes marins et d'autresinstances, selon les besoins.


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La mise en oeuvre, le fonctionnement et l'évolutiond'un système permanent d'observation analogue à laVeille météorologique mondiale nécessitera desmécanismes gouvernementaux pour s'assurer quechaque système, ou élément de système, candidat passepar quatre étapes de développement :

1. élaboration de connaissances, technologies etmodèles nouveaux par le biais de la recherche ;

2. essais répétés dans le cadre de projets pilotes afinde garantir la fiabilité des systèmes ou éléments desystème et de s'assurer de leur acceptation par lesmilieux opérationnels et de la recherche ;

3. utilisation préopérationnelle afin de s'assurer queleur intégration au système d'observation donnedes produits à valeur ajoutée ; et

4. intégration à un système opérationnel permanentd'observation.

Ce processus doit être sélectif et des critères pour fairepasser les éléments constitutifs du GOOS du stade dela recherche au stade opérationnel doivent être établisen fonction des besoins des utilisateurs. Dans un pre-mier temps, la mise en oeuvre du module côtier duGOOS devrait consister à améliorer le partage desdonnées et produits provenant d'éléments de systèmesd'observation afin d'en amorcer l'intégration dans unsystème global. Les données historiques et les flux per-manents de données existent en grand nombre mais àce jour beaucoup ne sont pas facilement accessiblesaux nombreux utilisateurs potentiels.

RECHERCHE ET DÉVELOPPEMENT EN VUE

DE LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN SYSTÈME D'OB-SERVATION OPÉRATIONNEL

Les fondements scientifiques et techniques de la con-ception du module côtier sont fournis par des pro-grammes de recherche, notamment ceux du PIGB(Interaction terre-océan dans les zones côtières,LOICZ ; dynamique des écosystèmes océaniques àl'échelle mondiale, GLOBEC ; Etude conjointe desflux océaniques mondiaux, JGOFS), l'Inventaire de lavie marine (CML), L'écologie et l'océanographie desefflorescences algales nuisibles à l'échelle mondiale(GEOHAB), le Programme international de rechercheà long terme sur les écosystèmes (I-LTER) et lesEtudes SIMBIOS (Sensor Intercomparisons and Merger forBiological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies). Les con-naissances et technologies issues de ces programmes de

recherche, et d'autres, seront nécessaires pour com-prendre toutes les possibilités qu'offre le système d'ob-servation.Celui-ci fournira à son tour en permanence des don-nées garanties sur l'environnement extrêmement pré-cieuses pour l'océanologie et l'enseignement en sci-ences de la mer comme, dans une large mesure, lesdonnées nécessaires à la prévision du temps profitent àla météorologie ou comme les prévisionsmétéorologiques numériques sont utiles aux sciencesde l'environnement dans leur ensemble.

Les priorités en matière de recherche et développe-ment sont notamment :

• de formuler des modèles écosystémiques perme-ttant une assimilation et une analyse plus rapidedes données biologiques et chimiques. L'objectifest d'en faire des modèles opérationnels suscepti-bles d'être utilisés pour orienter le développementde systèmes, déterminer des valeurs clima-tologiques pour les variables communes etdétecter et prévoir en temps plus opportun lesvariations des phénomènes étudiés ;

• de définir les besoins de télédétection des vari-ables communes et d'améliorer les méthodes detélédétection des eaux côtières. De continuer àlancer des satellites d'observation de l'océan et àmettre au point de nouveaux capteurs embarquéssur des satellites afin d'obtenir de meilleuresobservations, à plus haute résolution, des variablescommunes dans les milieux côtiers ;

• de définir les modalités de détection in situ devariables clés et d'intensifier la détection in situdans les eaux côtières afin notamment de détecterplus rapidement des variables biologiques etchimiques avec une résolution plus élevée et aumoyen de la télémétrie en temps réel.

COOPÉRATION, COORDINATION

ET COLLABORATION

La stratégie mondiale intégrée d'observation sup-pose la mise en place de trois systèmes liés d'observa-tion, le Système mondial d'observation du climat(SMOC), le Système global d'observation terrestre(GTOS) et le GOOS, connus sous l'appellation com-mune de G3OS. En ce qui concerne le module côti-er, le SMOC devrait fournir les données nécessairespour chiffrer les forçages atmosphériques ; le GTOS


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celles requises pour chiffrer les apports d'origine ter-restre ; et le module du GOOS relatif à l'océan mon-dial indiquer les conditions à la limite de la haute meret fournir les données nécessaires pour chiffrer lesforçages à l'échelle de bassins.

Mettre en oeuvre le module côtier exigera unecoopération,une coordination et une collaboration trèscomplexe entre les pays et entre les programmes exis-tants afin d'assurer l'émergence d'un système mondial àmesure que de nouveaux systèmes nationaux etrégionaux entrent en service. L'harmonisation des

besoins de coordination à l'échelle mondiale et desbesoins des utilisateurs en fonction des prioritésnationales et régionales constituera un aspect crucial dece processus.Actuellement, il n'existe pas de mécanismeinternational officiel pour le promouvoir et l'orienter.Il faudra une commission intergouvernementalecomme la Commission technique mixte d'océanogra-phie et de météorologie maritime (JCOMM, dotéed'organes consultatifs appropriés) pour faciliter la con-clusion d'accords multilatéraux et s'occuper des ques-tions juridiques que suscitera l'application de l'UNC-LOS et d'autres conventions internationales.


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EL SISTEMA MUNDIAL DE OBSERVACIÓN

DE LOS OCÉANOS

Los acuerdos y convenciones internacionales pre-conizan la seguridad en el mar, la ordenación eficazdel medio ambiente marino y el aprovechamientosostenible de sus recursos. El logro de los objetivos deesos acuerdos, que son importantes y constituyen unreto, depende de la capacidad de detectar con rapidezy suministrar oportunamente predicciones de loscambios1 en una amplia gama de fenómenos marinosque afectan 1) la seguridad y eficacia de las opera-ciones marinas; 2) la vulnerabilidad de las poblacioneshumanas a los riesgos naturales; 3) la respuesta de losecosistemas costeros al cambio climático mundial; 4)la salud y el bienestar públicos; 5) el estado de losecosistemas marinos; y 6) la sostenibilidad de losrecursos marinos vivos. Hoy día no tenemos esascapacidades. La finalidad del establecimiento de unSistema Mundial de Observación de los Océanos(GOOS) es desarrollarlas.

Los patrocinadores del GOOS son la ComisiónOceanográfica Intergubernamental (COI) de laUNESCO, el Programa de las Naciones Unidas parael Medio Ambiente (PNUMA), la OrganizaciónMeteorológica Mundial (OMM) y el Consejo Inter-nacional para la Ciencia (ICSU). El GOOS está con-cebido como una red operativa mundial que acopia ydifunde sistemáticamente datos y productos de datos

sobre estados pasados, presentes y futuros del mediomarino. El sistema de observación se está establecien-do mediante dos módulos relacionados y conver-gentes: 1) un módulo de los océanos mundiales ded-icado principalmente a la detección y predicción delos cambios en el sistema océano-clima y al mejo-ramiento de los servicios marinos (dirigido por elPanel de Observación del Océano en relación con elClima (OOPC), patrocinado conjuntamente por elPrograma Mundial de Investigaciones Climáticas(PMIC), el Sistema Mundial de Observación delClima (SMOC) y el GOOS) y 2) un módulo costerodedicado a los efectos de los cambios a gran escala enel sistema océano-clima y de las actividades humanasen los ecosistemas costeros, así como al mejoramien-to de los servicios marinos (dirigido por el Panelsobre Observaciones de los Océanos y las ZonasCosteras (COOP), patrocinado conjuntamente por laOrganización de las Naciones Unidas para la Agri-cultura y la Alimentación (FAO), el Programa Inter-nacional sobre la Geosfera y la Biosfera (IGBP) y elGOOS).

En este informe se presentan las recomendaciones delPanel sobre Observaciones de los Océanos y lasZonas Costeras (COOP) para el diseño del módulode las zonas costeras del GOOS. Está dividido en tressecciones:

1) fundamentos y objetivos (Prólogo, Capítulos 1y 2)

2) diseño (Capítulos 3, 4 , 5 y 6) y3) directrices iniciales para la elaboración de un

plan de ejecución (Capítulo 7).

En el plan detallado se expone la concepción de unsistema de observación integrado y permanente de


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Resumen

1 Cambio: “paso de un estado a otro; alteración o diferencia, variación de la condi-ción o apariencia física o moral” (traducción libre del artículo “change” del Webster’sNew Twentieth Century Unabridged Dictionary, NDT). Así pues, para detectar ypredecir el cambio, se deben poder detectar y predecir “estados”. Además, la palabra“cambio”no entraña una dimensión temporal o espacial particular. Los cambios ocur-ren en una amplia gama de escalas (segundos o siglos, por ejemplo) y la variabilidaden una escala supone un cambio en otra.

las aguas oceánicas costeras, se definen los elementosdel sistema y se explica cómo se relacionan éstos unoscon otros para constituir un sistema operativo. El planproporciona un marco cuyo objeto es que la comu-nidad o los países hagan un uso de los recursos colec-tivos más eficaz en relación con los costos, para tratarde modo más oportuno asuntos y problemas ambi-entales de interés común. Éste es el primer paso haciala formulación de un plan de ejecución que se esperaterminar para fines de 2004.

FUNDAMENTOS Y OBJETIVOS

Los bienes y servicios de los ecosistemas están másconcentrados en las zonas costeras que en cualquierotra región del planeta. El rápido aumento de losusos de los recursos costeros y los cambios mundi-ales en el sistema océano-clima están volviendo laszonas costeras más vulnerables a los riesgos natu-rales, más caras y de menor valor para las economíasnacionales. Los conflictos entre el comercio, lasactividades recreativas, el desarrollo, la protecciónambiental y la ordenación de los recursos vivos seestán volviendo cada vez más polémicos y su cargapolítica es cada vez mayor. Están aumentando enconsecuencia los costos sociales y políticos de deci-siones mal fundamentadas. Se requiere un sistemaintegrado de observaciones y análisis que aporte losdatos e informaciones necesarios para el logro delos seis objetivos siguientes:

1) mejorar la seguridad y eficacia de las opera-ciones marinas llevadas a cabo por los gobier-nos, los organismos o las empresas comerciales;

2) vigilar y atenuar más eficazmente los efectos delos riesgos naturales;

3) mejorar la capacidad para detectar y predecirlos efectos del cambio climático mundial en losecosistemas costeros;

4) reducir los riesgos para la salud pública;5) proteger y restaurar más eficazmente los eco-

sistemas sanos; y6) restaurar y preservar los recursos vivos mari-

nos.

El logro de estos objetivos depende de que sedesarrolle la capacidad de detectar y predecir conrapidez una amplia gama de fenómenos costeros,como por ejemplo los cambios en el estado delmar, las inundaciones costeras y el aumento del

nivel del mar, los mayores riesgos de enfermedad, lamodificación de los hábitats, las floraciones de algasnocivas y la disminución de los recursos pesqueros.Aunque cada objetivo requiere datos e informa-ciones específicos, todos tienen muchas necesi-dades de datos en común. Asimismo, las necesi-dades en materia de gestión de comunicaciones dedatos son análogas para los seis objetivos. Así pues,un enfoque integrado del establecimiento de unsistema de observación de usos múltiples es a la vezpertinente y eficaz en relación con los costos.

DISEÑO CONCEPTUAL

La detección rápida y la predicción oportuna depen-den del establecimiento de un sistema de observaciónoperativo que proporcione de modo rutinario ycontinuo datos e informaciones en la forma y en lasescalas cronológicas especificadas por los usuarios. Afin de garantizar el suministro oportuno y periódicode datos e informaciones a los usuarios, ese sistemadebe enlazar eficazmente tres subsistemas esenciales:a) un subsistema de vigilancia (detección), 2) un sub-sistema de acopio, gestión y difusión de datos, y 3) unsubsistema de asimilación y análisis de datos basadoen la comprensión científica.

Con tal fin, el módulo de las zonas costeras debediseñarse para hacer frente a muchos problemas,como por ejemplo los fenómenos costeros com-prendidos en los seis objetivos y la teoría de losecosistemas que postula que los fenómenos deinterés están relacionados mediante una jerarquíade interacciones. En ese sentido, el diseño debetomar en cuenta también las consideraciones gen-erales siguientes:

• Las necesidades de los grupos de usuarios enmateria de datos e información deben deter-minar el diseño, la aplicación y la elaboracióndel sistema de observación.

• Los fenómenos de interés suelen ser expre-siones locales de cambios (los fenómenos rela-cionados con El Niño y la Oscilación Austral(ENSO), las fuentes de contaminación ter-restres, la explotación de los recursos vivos, porejemplo) que se propagan desde escalas grandeshasta escalas más pequeñas pasando a través delas jurisdicciones nacionales y de los límitesentre el aire, el mar y la tierra.


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• Si bien a cada uno de los seis objetivos corre-sponden necesidades de datos específicas, éstostienen muchas necesidades de datos en común.

• Se requieren normas y protocolos mundialesrelativos a las observaciones, el intercambio y lagestión de datos para garantizar un acceso rápi-do y oportuno a los datos y la información.

• Muchos de los elementos que se necesitan paraestablecer el sistema de observación ya están ensu lugar y lo han estado desde hace tiempo.

• Se deben establecer mecanismos para efectuarevaluaciones permanentes y continuas del sis-tema en relación con su rentabilidad, su efica-cia, el control de calidad y el suministro opor-tuno de datos e información.

• Los elementos del sistema de observación quese requieren para mejorar los servicios marinosy la eficacia de las operaciones marinas y pre-decir los riesgos naturales están más desarrolla-dos que los exigidos por una protección ambi-ental y una ordenación de los recursos vivosbasadas en los ecosistemas.

Entre las consideraciones regionales, cabe citar lassiguientes:• Las prioridades y la capacidad para contribuir

al sistema de observación y aprovecharlo sondistintas según los países y las regiones.

• La mayoría de los acuerdos y convencionesinternacionales de protección del medio ambi-ente y de ordenación de los recursos marinosvivos son de alcance regional.

• Los organismos nacionales y regionales son losmedios más eficaces de determinar los grupos deusuarios, elaborar productos y comercializarlos.

Así pues, el diseño y la ejecución deben respetar elhecho de que las prioridades varían según lasregiones, por lo que se debe dejar el diseño del sis-tema en el plano regional a los interesados de lasrespectivas regiones. Al mismo tiempo, los seisobjetivos del módulo de las zonas costeras delGOOS tienen muchos requisitos en común. Porconsiguiente, una red mundial de observacionespodría aportar economías de escala que permi-tirían a los sistemas de observación regionales sermás eficaces en relación con los costos. En esteinforme se propone una colaboración entre la gestiónde la red de observaciones mundial común y las alian-zas regionales del GOOS. Esa estructura tendrá efec-tos positivos en todo el diseño y la gestión del GOOS.

UN FORO MUNDIAL DE SISTEMAS DE

OBSERVACIÓN REGIONALES

El módulo de las zonas costeras deberá incluir, desdeluego, componentes a escala tanto regional comomundial. El mejor modo de conseguirlo es a través deun mecanismo que permita a los programasnacionales y a las Alianzas Regionales de GOOS unrol significativo en (1) la coordinación del desarrol-lo de una red mundial de observaciones, gestión yanálisis de datos; (2) el establecimiento de normas yprotocolos comunes para las mediciones, el intercam-bio y la gestión de datos; (3) facilitar la transferenciade conocimientos y de tecnología; y (4) fijar priori-dades para la creación de capacidades. En este dis-eño, la red mundial :

• mide una serie de variables comunes que lamayoría de los sistemas regionales necesitan,cuando no todos, y se ocupa de su gestión (lasvariables comunes, véase el Capítulo 4);

• establece una red de referencia compuesta deestaciones centinelas; y

• establece vínculos entre las observaciones relati-vas a las zonas costeras y las observacionesmundiales y conecta los modelos mundiales conlos de las zonas costeras (Capítulo 5);

Los sistemas de observación regionales son compo-nentes esenciales del módulo de las zonas costeras. Lared mundial no proporcionará por sí misma todos losdatos e informaciones (o ni siquiera la mayor parte deellos) que se necesitan para detectar el estado y prede-cir los cambios de los fenómenos de interés. Algunascategorías de variables son importantes a escalamundial, pero las variables medidas y las escalasespaciales y cronológicas de medición cambian deuna región a otra según la índole de la zonacostera y las necesidades de los usuarios. Se trata devariables relativas a las evaluaciones de las poblaciones,los principales hábitats de los peces, los mamíferos yaves marinos, las especies invasoras, las algas nocivas ylos contaminantes químicos. Para estas categorías ypara las variables como los hielos oceánicos que estánlimitadas a determinadas regiones del planeta, losinteresados de las regiones en cuestión son los másaptos para adoptar las decisiones relativas a lo que hayque medir exactamente, las escalas espaciales ycronológicas de medición y la combinación de técni-cas de observación que se han de utilizar. Asimismo,


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algunos aspectos de la predicción para las industrias delas zonas costeras dependerán de la existencia de insta-laciones de explotación de petróleo y gas en alta mar,puertos importantes, rutas de transbordadores, centrosturísticos y recreativos. Basándose en las prioridadesregionales, los sistemas de observación regionales sum-inistran datos e información que se ajustan a las necesi-dades de los interesados, en especial en materia deordenación de los recursos pesqueros y de vigilanciade las fuentes de contaminación terrestres. Esto puedesuponer aumentos en la resolución a la que se midenlas variables comunes (por ejemplo, hasta 1 km omenos), así como las mediciones de variables suple-mentarias a escalas más reducidas.De ese modo, los sis-temas de observación regionales contribuyen a la redmundial y al mismo tiempo sacan provecho de ella.

El plan detallado del COOP está centrado en laconstitución de una red mundial de zonascosteras que contribuya a la rentabilidad de lossistemas de observación regionales y que los vin-cule entre sí y con los sistemas mundiales deobservación del océano y el clima.

LA PRIMACÍA DE LA GESTIÓN DE DATOS Y

LA ELABORACIÓN DE PRODUCTOS

Reducir el tiempo necesario para acopiar, tratar yanalizar datos de calidad conocida es uno de los prin-cipales objetivos cuyo logro supone el establecimien-to de un subsistema integrado de gestión de datos ycomunicaciones. Los objetivos son proporcionardatos en tiempo real y de modo diferido y permitir alos usuarios explotar múltiples series de datos proce-dentes de múltiples fuentes distintas. Esto exigirá unared distribuida jerárquicamente de organizacionesnacionales, regionales y mundiales que funcione connormas,materiales de referencia y protocolos de con-trol de calidad comunes, permita un rápido acceso alos datos y su intercambio (normas sobre metadatos,por ejemplo) y archive los datos a largo plazo. Esa redcrecería por incremento gradual vinculando e inte-grando los centros de datos y los programas degestión nacionales e internacionales existentes. ElComité de la COI de Intercambio Internacional deDatos e Información Oceanográficos (IODE) y laserie de programas de gestión de datos de laJCOMM ofrecen la posibilidad de supervisar eldesarrollo coordinado del subsistema integrado degestión de datos (Capítulo 6).

El sistema de observación debe desarrollarse tenien-do en cuenta los grupos de usuarios y los flujos dedatos y los productos que éstos requieren. Al mismotiempo, el rápido acceso a datos pluridisciplinariosprocedentes de distintas fuentes propiciará la mod-elización y la elaboración de productos. Por consigu-iente, se debe conceder una elevada prioridad alestablecimiento de mecanismos de participación per-manente de los grupos de usuarios en la definiciónde productos y en el establecimiento, el fun-cionamiento y el desarrollo del módulo de las zonascosteras.

Los programas nacionales del GOOS y las alian-zas regionales del GOOS son el principal mediode determinar los grupos de usuarios, especificarlos requisitos en materia de datos e informacióny perfeccionar los productos de datos con el tiem-po, basándose en las reacciones de los usuarios y enlos nuevos conocimientos. La producción, la promo-ción publicitaria y la comercialización de los produc-tos de datos son esenciales para suscitar una mayordemanda entre los usuarios y, por ende, para el desar-rollo ulterior del sistema de observación. Los princi-pales instrumentos de comercialización y divulgaciónde que se dispone en la actualidad son el boletín deproductos y servicios del GOOS y el boletín de laJCOMM. En estas publicaciones se facilita informa-ción sobre productos y sobre actividades de elabo-ración de productos, y se brinda a los usuarios laposibilidad de formular comentarios sobre la calidady la utilidad de los productos del GOOS.

EL SUBSISTEMA DE OBSERVACIÓN

La red mundial propuesta tiene por objeto medir yadministrar una serie relativamente pequeña de vari-ables “comunes” necesarias para la mayoría de los sis-temas de observación regionales, cuando no todos(Capítulo 4,Anexos IV y V).Aunque es probable quelas variables comunes vayan apareciendo en el tiem-po, a medida que las Alianzas Regionales de GOOSconstruyen la red mundial, es útil seleccionar unaserie provisional de variables para ayudar a orientar eldiseño y la instalación iniciales de la red mundial dezonas costeras. Las variables comunes recomendadasson el nivel del mar, la temperatura y salinidad delagua, las corrientes vectoriales, las olas de superficie,el oxígeno disuelto y los nutrientes inorgánicos, laatenuación de la radiación solar, la batimetría, los


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cambios en la posición de la línea costera, el tamañode los sedimentos y el contenido orgánico, la biomasabentónica, la biomasa del fitoplancton y los indi-cadores fecales. Estas variables se seleccionaron sobrela base de las necesidades en materia de datos de losseis objetivos y del número de grupos de usuariosque aprovecharían los datos e informaciones. Estalista, elaborada según los criterios más plausibles, esimportante porque permite tener una idea de lo quepueden ser las variables comunes y porque destaca laimportancia de mejorar la capacidad para detectar loscambios en las variables biológicas y químicas y deelaborar modelos operativos para los procesos bio-geoquímicos y ecológicos. Las fuerzas físicas que seejercen sobre las estructuras y los sistemas deflotación son una parte importante de los servicios depredicción para los agentes marítimos, y esos produc-tos están ya bastante avanzados y se tratan en otraspublicaciones. Los aspectos relativos a la mod-elización de los parámetros físicos se tratan en elCapítulo 5. Habida cuenta de la importancia de losfactores ambientales en cuanto a la detección y lapredicción de los fenómenos de interés, no es sor-prendente que éstos predominen en la lista provi-sional del módulo de las zonas costeras.

Será preciso combinar una serie de técnicas para pro-porcionar los flujos de datos que se requieren. Éstas sepueden clasificar en tres categorías: la teledetección(observaciones espacialmente sinópticas), la detecciónautónoma in situ (series cronológicas de alta resolu-ción) y el muestreo diferenciado seguido del análisisde laboratorio (para muchas variables químicas ybiológicas). El subsistema de vigilancia debe com-prender, entre otros, los elementos siguientes: 1) lasredes de laboratorios costeros, 2) la red mundial demareómetros, 3) las plataformas y las boyas fijas, y losvehículos autónomos, 4) los buques de investigacióny estudio que efectúan observaciones continuas, 5)los buques de observación voluntarios y 6) la telede-tección desde plataformas terrestres, satélites y aeron-aves.

VINCULACIÓN DE LAS OBSERVACIONES

Y LOS MODELOS

La vigilancia y la modelización son procesos recípro-camente dependientes y el establecimiento del sis-tema plenamente integrado exigirá una sinergia con-tinua entre la vigilancia, los adelantos tecnológicos y

la formulación de modelos de predicción (Capítulo5). Los modelos desempeñarán una función decisivaen la ejecución, el funcionamiento y el desarrollo delsistema de observación. Se trata de instrumentosimportantes que se utilizan para estimar las cantidadesque no se observan directamente con certezareconocida, esto es, para predecir los estados pasados(información retrospectiva), actuales (informaciónactual) y futuros (información prospectiva) de los sis-temas marinos costeros y los estuarios, así como loserrores asociados a tales predicciones. Cabe observarque el concepto de información actual requiere unsuministro y un tratamiento extremadamente rápidosde los datos en tiempo real, o en tiempo casi real.Una perspectiva general de la situación actual de laasimilación y modelización de los datos para los ser-vicios marinos y los riesgos naturales, los recursosmarinos vivos, la salud pública y la salud de los eco-sistemas (Capítulo 5) muestra el estado avanzado dela modelización para los servicios marinos y los ries-gos naturales en relación con la existente para ladetección y predicción de los cambios en fenómenosque requieren mediciones de variables biológicas yquímicas. Esto destaca la importancia que reviste lainvestigación para el desarrollo del módulo de laszonas costeras.

CONSTITUCIÓN DEL SISTEMA

La elaboración de los componentes del GOOS rela-tivos tanto a los océanos mundiales como a las zonascosteras depende en gran medida de que los progra-mas existentes se vinculen, se mejoren y se com-pleten de modo selectivo y eficaz (Capítulo 7). Lared mundial de zonas costeras se creará mediante unacombinación de procesos nacionales, regionales ymundiales. Si bien algunos elementos del sistemaserán mundiales en cuanto a su escala desde el prin-cipio (el GLOSS, las observaciones desde el espacio,por ejemplo), los sistemas de observación nacionalesy regionales serán los elementos constitutivos de lared mundial de zonas costeras. Las alianzas regionalesdel GOOS se están estableciendo para planificar yestablecer sistemas de observación regionales que seconvertirán en los componentes básicos del módulocostero (Capítulo 3, Sección 3.1). Se alienta a lasalianzas regionales del GOOS a que constituyan elmódulo de las zonas costeras estableciendo relacionesde colaboración con los programas nacionales delGOOS, las convenciones sobre los mares regionales,


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los organismos regionales encargados de la actividadpesquera, los programas sobre los grandes ecosistemasmarinos y otros organismos, según proceda.

El establecimiento, el funcionamiento y la evoluciónde un sistema de observación permanente, como laVigilancia Meteorológica Mundial, exigirán mecan-ismos gubernamentales que garanticen el paso de lossistemas candidatos o los elementos de sistemas porlas cuatro etapas de desarrollo siguientes:

1) la formulación de nuevos conocimientos, tec-nologías y modelos mediante la investigación;

2) la experimentación reiterada en proyectos pilotopara garantizar la fiabilidad y la aceptación porparte de los investigadores y los usuarios;

3) el uso preoperativo con objeto de que la incor-poración al sistema de observación conduzca a laelaboración de productos con valor añadido; y

4) la incorporación a un sistema de observaciónoperativo permanente.

El proceso debe ser selectivo y se deben establecer loscriterios para el paso de los componentes básicos delGOOS de la fase de investigación a la fase operativa,partiendo de las necesidades de los usuarios. El primerpaso para establecer el módulo de las zonas costeras delGOOS debe ser un mejor intercambio de los datos yproductos disponibles procedentes de elementos de sis-temas de observación, a fin de iniciar su integración enun sistema de observación. Existe una gran cantidad dedatos históricos y de flujos de datos en curso, pero enla actualidad muchos de ellos no son de fácil accesopara los numerosos usuarios posibles.

INVESTIGACIÓN Y DESARROLLO DE UN

SISTEMA DE OBSERVACIÓN OPERATIVO

El fundamento científico y técnico para el diseño delmódulo de las zonas costeras lo suministran progra-mas de investigación como el IGBP (InteracciónTierra-Océano en las Zonas Costeras, LOICZ;Dinámica de los Ecosistemas Oceánicos Mundiales,GLOBEC; y el Estudio Conjunto de los FlujosOceánicos Mundiales, JGOFS), el Inventario de laVida Marina (CML), el Programa Científico Interna-cional sobre la Ecología y la Oceanografía Mundialesde las Floraciones de Algas Nocivas (GEOHAB), elprograma internacional de investigación a largo plazosobre los ecosistemas y el Sensor Intercomparisons and

Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Stud-ies (SIMBIOS). Para que el sistema de observacióndesarrolle plenamente su potencial se requerirán losconocimientos y las tecnologías generados por estosy otros programas de investigación. El sistema deobservación proporcionará a su vez datos garantiza-dos y continuos sobre el medio ambiente que reve-stirán un enorme valor para la ciencia y la educaciónmarinas, del mismo modo que los datos necesariospara las predicciones meteorológicas son de provechopara la ciencia de la meteorología y que las predic-ciones meteorológicas numéricas son de provechopara las ciencias del medio ambiente en su totalidad.Las prioridades en materia de investigación y desar-rollo serán, entre otras, las siguientes:

• Elaborar modelos de ecosistemas para una asim-ilación y un análisis más rápidos de los datosbiológicos y químicos. El objetivo es integrarestos últimos en modelos operativos que puedanutilizarse para orientar el desarrollo del sistema,determinar las climatologías para las variablescomunes y detectar y predecir de modo másoportuno los cambios en los fenómenos deinterés.

• Establecer los requisitos para la teledetección delas variables comunes y mejorar la teledetecciónde las aguas costeras. Proseguir la instalación desatélites de observación de los océanos y elabo-rar nuevos sensores en los satélites para efectuarmejores observaciones y de más alta resoluciónde las variables comunes en los medios costeros.

• Establecer los requisitos para la detección in situde las principales variables y mejorar las observa-ciones in situ en las aguas costeras, a fin de incluiruna detección más rápida de las variables biológ-icas y químicas con una mayor resolución y unatelemetría en tiempo real.

COOPERACIÓN, COORDINACIÓN

Y COLABORACIÓN

La Estrategia de Observación Mundial Integradasupone el establecimiento de tres sistemas de obser-vación relacionados entre sí: el Sistema Mundial deObservación del Clima (SMOC), el Sistema Globalde Observación Terrestre (GTOS) y el GOOS, que seconocen todos juntos como G3OS.A los efectos delmódulo de las zonas costeras, se espera que el SMOCproporcione los datos necesarios para cuantificar la


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dinámica atmosférica; se espera que el GTOS pro-porcione los datos necesarios para cuantificar lasaportaciones terrestres; y se espera que el módulo delos océanos mundiales del GOOS proporcione lascondiciones y los datos relativos a las zonas adya-centes en alta mar necesarios para cuantificar ladinámica a escala de las cuencas.

La implementación del módulo de las zonas costerasrequerirá un alto grado de cooperación, coordi-nación y colaboración entre países y programasexistentes, a fin de conseguir el establecimiento deuna red mundial conforme vayan apareciendo mássistemas nacionales y regionales. Un aspecto decisi-

vo de este proceso será la armonización de lanecesidad de una coordinación mundial con lasnecesidades de los usuarios, basándose en las prior-idades nacionales y regionales. En la actualidad, noexiste ningún mecanismo internacional oficial quepromueva y oriente este proceso. Se necesitará unacomisión intergubernamental, como la ComisiónTécnica Mixta sobre Oceanografía y MeteorologíaMarina (JCOMM, con sus correspondientesórganos consultivos) para facilitar los acuerdos mul-tilaterales y resolver los problemas jurídicos queplantea la aplicación de la Convención de lasNaciones Unidas sobre el Derecho del Mar y otrasconvenciones internacionales.


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ГЛОБАЛЬНАЯ СИСТЕМА НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ

ЗА ОКЕАНОМ

Международные соглашения и конвенции призы-вают к обеспечению безопасности на море, эффек-тивному управлению морской средой и устойчи-вому использованию ее ресурсов. Решение важныхи серьезных задач, поставленных в этих докумен-тах, зависит от возможности быстрого выявления иобеспечения своевременного прогнозированияизменений1 в широком спектре явлений, связан-ных с морской средой, которые сказываются на сле-дующем: (1)безопасность и эффективность мор-ских операций; (2) уязвимость населения в случаестихийных бедствий; (3) реакция прибрежных эко-систем на изменение климата; (4) охрана здоровьяи благосостояние населения; (5) состояние морскихэкосистем; и (6) устойчивость живых морских ре-сурсов. Сегодня мы такими возможностями не рас-полагаем. Задаче развития таких возможностей слу-жит создание Глобальной системы наблюдения заокеаном (ГСНО). Спонсорами ГСНО являютсяМежправительственная океанографическая комис-сия (МОК) ЮНЕСКО, Программа ОрганизацииОбъединенных Наций по окружающей среде(ЮНЕП), Всемирная метеорологическая организа-ция (ВМО) и Международный совет по науке(МСНС). ГСНО задумана как оперативная глобаль-ная сеть, которая на систематической основе обес-печивает получение и распространение данных ипродуктов данных о прошлом, настоящем и буду-

щем состоянии морской среды. В основе развитияэтой системы наблюдений находятся два взаимо-связанных и все более сближающихся модуля:(1) глобальный океанический модуль, прежде всегосвязанный с выявлением и прогнозированием из-менений в системе океан-климат и с совершенство-ванием морских услуг (руководство этим модулемосуществляет Группа по океаническим наблюде-ниям за климатом (ООПК), спонсорами которойявляются Всемирная программа по исследованиюклимата (ВПИК), Глобальная система наблюденийза климатом (ГСНК) и ГСНО); и (2) прибрежныймодуль, связанный с влиянием крупномасштабныхизменений в системе океан-климат и с антропоген-ным влиянием на прибрежные экосистемы, а такжес совершенствованием морских услуг (руководствоэтим модулем осуществляет Группа по наблюде-нию за прибрежными районами (КООП), спонсо-рами которой являются Продовольственная и сель-скохозяйственная Организация ОбъединенныхНаций (ФАО), Международная программа по гео-сфере/биосфере (МПГБ) и ГСНО). В настоящемдокладе содержатся рекомендации КООП по разра-ботке прибрежного модуля ГСНО. Доклад состоитиз трех частей:

1. обоснование и цели (вступление и главы 1 и 2)2. разработка (главы 3, 4, 5 и 6)3. первоначальные руководящие принципы для

подготовки Плана реализации (глава 7).

План разработки содержит характеристику под-хода к комплексной устойчивой системе наблюде-ний за прибрежными районами океана, определе-ние элементов этой системы, а также описаниехарактера их взаимодействия в интересах выходана уровень оперативной системы. План обеспечи-вает ту основу, на которой международное сообще-


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Рабочее резюме

1. “Изменять - вызывать переход из одного состояния в другое; преобра-зовывать или делать иным; изменяться - приобретать другую внешнююформу или содержание” (Уэбстер, Полный новый словарь двадцатоговека - Webster’s New Twentieth Century Dictionary, Unabridged Dictionary).Таким образом, для выявления и прогнозирования изменений надо иметьвозможность выявлять и прогнозировать “состояние”. Помимо этого,слово “изменение” не подразумевает конкретных временных или прост-ранственных характеристик. Изменения происходят в самых различныхмасштабах (от секунд до столетий), и то, что является переменчивостью водних масштабах, оказывается изменением в других.

ство может более рентабельно использовать кол-лективные ресурсы в целях более своевременногорешения экологических вопросов и проблем, пред-ставляющих взаимный интерес. Это служит пер-вым шагом к подготовке плана реализации, кото-рый должен быть завершен к концу 2004 г.

ОБОСНОВАНИЕ И ЦЕЛИ

Товары и услуги экосистем в большей степенисосредоточены в прибрежных районах, чем в любыхдругих регионах мира. Быстрое расширение исполь-зования человеком прибрежных ресурсов и глобаль-ные изменения в системе океан-климат делают при-брежные зоны более уязвимыми в случае стихийныхбедствий, более дорогостоящими для проживания вних и менее ценными для национальной эконо-мики. Конфликты между сферами таких интересов,как бизнес, досуг, развитие, охрана окружающей сре-ды и управление живыми ресурсами, становятся всеболее острыми и приобретающими политическуюокраску. Соответственно растет и социально-эконо-мическая цена, которую приходится платить за про-тиворечащие друг другу решения. Необходимакомплексная система наблюдений и анализа дляобеспечения данных и информации, которых тре-бует достижение следующих шести целей:

1. повышение уровня безопасности и эффектив-ности морских операций, причем проводимыхкак правительствами, так и учреждениями иличастными компаниями;

2. повышение эффективности предупреждениястихийных бедствий и уменьшения их послед-ствий;

3. совершенствование потенциала для выявленияи прогнозирования воздействия глобальногоизменения климата на прибрежные экосистемы;

4. уменьшение опасностей, угрожающих здоровьюнаселения;

5. обеспечение более эффективной защиты и вос-становления экосистем;

6. восстановление и сохранение живых морскихресурсов.

Достижение этих целей зависит от развития воз-можностей быстрого выявления и прогнозирова-ния широкого круга явлений в прибрежных райо-нах, начиная с изменения уровня моря, затопленияпобережий и подъема уровня моря и кончая опас-ностями, связанными с болезнями, изменением сре-

ды обитания, вредоносным цветением водорослейи уменьшением вылова рыбы. Хотя для достижениякаждой цели требуются свои специфические дан-ные и информация, необходим и большой объемданных общего для них характера. Аналогичнымобразом, единые потребности существуют и в отно-шении управления распространением данных врамках всех шести целей. Таким образом, комплекс-ный подход к развитию системы наблюдения, обес-печивающей данные для множественных форм ис-пользования, является как весьма актуальным, таки рентабельным.

РАЗРАБОТКА КОНЦЕПЦИИ

Быстрое выявление и своевременное прогнозирова-ние зависят от создания системы оперативных на-блюдений, обеспечивающей постоянное и непре-рывное предоставление необходимых данных иинформации в той форме и в тех временных мас-штабах, которые конкретно требуются пользовате-лям. Такая система должна обеспечивать эффектив-ную увязку трех важнейших подсистем для гаранти-рованного своевременного предоставления данныхи информации потребителям на постоянной осно-ве: (1) подсистемы мониторинга (зондирования); (2)подсистемы для получения данных, управления имии их распространения; (3) подсистемы для синтеза ианализа данных на основе их научного понимания.

При этом прибрежный модуль должен быть разра-ботан таким образом, чтобы отвечать решениюмногих вопросов, включая многообразие явленийв прибрежной зоне, охватываемых шестью целями,а также теорию экосистем, согласно которой пред-ставляющие интерес явления взаимосвязаныиерархией взаимодействий. В связи с этим при раз-работке должны также учитываться следующие со-ображения глобального характера:● разработка, реализация и развитие системы

наблюдений должны ориентироваться напотребности групп пользователей в данных иинформации;

● представляющие интерес явления являютсяхарактерным местным проявлением измене-ний (например явления ЭНСО, наземныеисточники загрязнения, истощение живыхресурсов), которые переходят из крупных мас-штабов в меньшие, не считаясь ни с националь-ными границами, ни с границами между атмо-сферой, морем и сушей;


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● хотя для достижения каждой цели требуютсясвои специфические данные и информация,необходим и большой объем данных общегодля них характера;

● для обеспечения быстрого и своевременного до-ступа к данным и информации требуются гло-бальные стандарты и протоколы в области на-блюдений, обмена данными и управления ими;

● многие элементы, необходимые для созданиясистемы наблюдений, уже существуют, причемдавно;

● необходимо создать механизмы для постоян-ного и непрерывного проведения оценок систе-мы с точки зрения ее рентабельности и эффек-тивности, контроля качества и своевременногопредоставления данных и информации;

● те элементы системы наблюдений, которыенужны для совершенствования морских услуг,повышения эффективности морских операцийи прогнозирования стихийных бедствий, болееразвиты, чем элементы, необходимые дляохраны окружающей среды на основе прин-ципа экосистем и для управления живымиресурсами.

Соображения регионального характера включаютследующие:● приоритеты и возможности участия в системе

наблюдений и извлечения из нее преимуществу разных стран и регионов не одинаковы;

● большинство международных соглашений иконвенций об охране окружающей среды иуправлении живыми морскими ресурсами име-ют региональную сферу действия;

● задачам выявления групп пользователей, разра-ботки продуктов и маркетинга в наибольшейстепени отвечают национальные и региональ-ные органы.

Таким образом, разработка и реализация должныучитывать различия в приоритетах у разных регио-нов и оставлять разработку системы в региональ-ном масштабе на усмотрение заинтересованныхсторон в регионе. Одновременно в рамках шестицелей прибрежного модуля ГСНО существуетмного общих потребностей. Следовательно,глобальная сеть наблюдений может обеспечитьзначительную экономию средств, что повыситрентабельность региональных систем наблюде-ний. В настоящем докладе предлагается развиватьсотрудничество между руководством глобальнойсети наблюдений и региональными альянсами

ГСНО. Такая структура принесет пользу разработкеи управлению ГСНО в целом.

ГЛОБАЛЬНОЕ ОБЪЕДИНЕНИЕ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ СИСТЕМ НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ

Очевидно, что прибрежный модуль должен вклю-чать компоненты как регионального, так и глобаль-ного масштаба. Наиболее эффективно этогоможно добиться на основе объединения регио-нальных систем в глобальную прибрежную сетьнаблюдений и управления данными. В рамкахтакой структуры глобальная сеть:● обеспечивает измерения и управление по ряду

общих переменных параметров, которые необ-ходимы для большинства региональных сис-тем, если не для всех из них (общие переменныепараметры – см. главу 4);

● выступает в качестве информационно-спра-вочной сети и сети станций слежения;

● устанавливает международные стандарты ипротоколы для проведения измерений, обменаданными и управления ими;

● обеспечивает взаимную увязку прибрежныхнаблюдений с глобальными, а также взаимодей-ствие глобального и прибрежного модулей(глава 5); и

● содействует созданию потенциалов.

Региональные системы наблюдений являются важ-нейшими компонентами для создания прибреж-ного модуля. Глобальная сеть сама по себе не обес-печит ста процентов (или даже большинства) дан-ных и информации, не обходимых для определениясостояния и прогнозирования представляющихинтерес явлений. Существуют категории перемен-ных параметров, имеющих глобальную значимость,однако измеряемые переменные параметры и про-странственно-временные масштабы измерений вразных регионах не одинаковы и зависят от харак-тера прибрежной зоны и от потребностей пользова-телей. Сюда входят переменные параметры, каса-ющиеся оценок объема разных категорий живыхресурсов, основных форм среды обитания рыбы,морских млекопитающих и птиц, инвазивныхвидов, вредоносных водорослей и химическихзагрязняющих веществ. По таким категориям,равно как и по таким переменным параметрам,которые актуальны для немногих регионов (напри-мер морской лед), решения о том, что именно следу-ет измерять и в каких пространственно-временныхмасштабах, а также о комплексе методики наблюде-


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ний должны приниматься заинтересованнымисторонами в соответствующих регионах. Аналогич-ным образом, аспекты прогнозирования для отрас-лей промышленности в прибрежной зоне будутзависеть от наличия нефтегазовых морских разра-боток, крупных портов, паромных маршрутов, ту-ристических курортов и центров отдыха. Руковод-ствуясь региональными приоритетами, региональ-ные системы наблюдений обеспечивают данные иинформацию, увязанные с потребностями заинте-ресованных сторон, в особенности в том, что каса-ется управления рыболовством и наземных источ-ников загрязнения. Скорее всего, это повлечет засобой увеличение разрешающей способности из-мерений по общим переменным параметрам (на-пример, до одного километра или даже менее), атакже потребует измерений по дополнительнымпеременным параметрам в меньших масштабах.При этом региональные сети наблюдений будутвносить свой вклад в глобальную сеть и одновре-менно пользоваться ее преимуществами.

Глобальная прибрежная сеть, способствующая по-вышению рентабельности региональных системнаблюдений и обеспечивающая их увязку друг сдругом и с глобальными системами наблюдений заокеаном и климатом, находится в центре вниманияплана разработки КООП.

РАЗВИТИЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ДАННЫМИ ИПРОДУКТОВ – ГЛАВНАЯ ЗАДАЧА

Сокращение времени, требуемого для получения,обработки и анализа данных известного качества,является одной из основных целей, требующей раз-вития комплексной подсистемы управления дан-ными и коммуникации. Задача состоит в предо-ставлении данных как в режиме реального време-ни, так и в режиме отсрочки, а также в том, чтобыдать пользователям возможность использоватьнаборы множественных данных из многих различ-ных источников. Это потребует широкой иерархи-ческой сети национальных, региональных и все-мирных организаций, которая действует на основеобщих стандартов, справочных материалов и про-токолов по контролю качества и обеспечиваетбыстрый доступ к данным и управление ими(например стандарты метаданных), а также их дол-госрочное хранение. Такая сеть будет развиватьсяпо пути своего увеличения, подсоединяя и присо-единяя к себе существующие национальные и меж-

дународные центры данных и программы управле-ния. Комитет МОК по международному обменуокеаническими данными и информацией (МООД)и программная область ОКОММ, связанная суправлением данными, могли бы следить за скоор-динированным развитием такой комплексной под-системы управления данными (глава 6).

Развитие системы наблюдений должно направ-ляться группами пользователей, а также потокамиданных и продуктов, которые им нужны. Одновре-менно быстрый доступ к многодисциплинарнымданным из многих источников будет активизи-ровать создание моделей и разработку продуктов.Таким образом, высокоприоритетное вниманиеследует уделить созданию механизмов привлечениягрупп пользователей на постоянной основе к опре-делению продуктов и к созданию, работе и разви-тию прибрежного модуля.

Национальные программы и региональные аль-янсы ГСНО обеспечивают максимально эффектив-ное и постоянное выявление групп пользователей,уточнение потребностей в данных и информации идоработку продуктов данных на основе обратнойсвязи с пользователями и новых знаний. Основны-ми средствами маркетинга и распространения ин-формации в настоящее время служат Бюллетеньпродуктов и услуг ГСНО и Бюллетень ОКОММ. Онисообщают сведения о продуктах и мероприятиях поих разработке, предоставляя пользователям воз-можность высказать свои соображения о качестве ипользе продуктов ГСНО.

ПОДСИСТЕМА НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ

Задачей предлагаемой глобальной сети являетсяпроведение измерений и деятельности по управле-нию в отношении сравнительно небольшого набо-ра “общих” переменных параметров, которые тре-буются большинству региональных систем наблю-дений, если не всем из них (глава 4, приложения IVи V). Хотя вполне вероятно, что общие перемен-ные параметры будут выявляться по ходу разви-тия и становления глобального объединениясистем целесообразно определить предваритель-ный набор переменных параметров, что помоглобы сориентировать разработку и реализацию гло-бальной при- брежной сети на начальном этапе.Рекомендуемыми общими переменными парамет-рами являются уровень моря, температура и соле-


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ность воды, векторные течения, волны на поверх-ности моря, растворенный кислород и неорганиче-ские питательные вещества, ослабление солнечнойрадиации, батиметрия, изменения береговой ли-нии, объем и органическое содержание отложений,бентическая биомасса, биомасса фитопланктона ипоказатели фекального загрязнения. Эти перемен-ные параметры были отобраны на основе потреб-ностей в данных в рамках шести целей, а также наоснове числа пользователей, которые были бы за-интересованы в получении таких данных и инфор-мации. Этот “умозрительный” перечень имеетважное значение в том плане, что он позволяет по-нять, какими могут быть общие переменные пара-метры, и указывает на необходимость наращива-ния потенциала с целью выявления изменений вбиологических и химических переменных параме-трах, а также разработки оперативных моделей длябиогеохимических и экологических процессов. Фи-зические силы, воздействующие на структуры иплавучие системы, играют важную роль с точкизрения предоставления морским операторам услугпо прогнозированию, и эти продукты уже хорошоразработаны и освещаются в других публикациях.Аспекты моделирования физических параметровизлагаются в главе 5. С учетом важного значенияэкологических факторов для выявления и прогно-зирования представляющих интерес явлений не-удивительно, что они будут занимать ведущее мес-то в предварительном списке для прибрежного мо-дуля.

Для обеспечения потоков необходимых данныхпотребуется комплекс различной методики. Онаразделяется на три общие категории: дистанцион-ное зондирование (наблюдения с метеорологи-ческих спутников), автономные наблюдения на ме-стах (серии по временным рядам наблюдений свысокой разрешающей способностью) и выбороч-ные измерения с последующим лабораторным ана-лизом (по многим химическим и биологическимпеременным параметрам). Элементы подсистемымониторинга должны включать следующее: (1) сетибереговых лабораторий; (2) глобальную сеть марео-графов; (3) неподвижные, заякоренные и автоном-ные платформы; (4) научно-исследовательские суда,занимающиеся постоянными наблюдениями; (5)добровольные суда наблюдений; и (6) дистанцион-ное зондирование с наземных платформ, спутникови самолетов.

УВЯЗКА НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ И МОДЕЛЕЙ

Мониторинг и моделирование являются взаимо-зависимым процессом, и развитие полностью ин-тегрированной системы потребует обеспеченияпостоянного синергетического эффекта междумониторингом, современной технологией и разра-боткой прогностических моделей (глава 5). По-следние будут играть важнейшую роль в реализа-ции, оперативной деятельности и развитии систе-мы наблюдений. Они служат ценными средства-ми, использующимися для количественных оце-нок явлений, не подлежащих прямому наблюде-нию, то есть они позволяют прогнозировать про-шлое, нынешнее и будущее состояние прибреж-ной морской среды и устьев рек, а также ошибки,связанные с таким прогнозированием. Отметим,что прогнозирование нынешнего состояния сре-ды требует крайне быстрого представления и об-работки данных в режиме реального времени иливремени, близкого к реальному.

Обзор сегодняшнего состояния ассимиляции дан-ных и моделирования в интересах морских служби предупреждения стихийных бедствий, живыхморских ресурсов, охраны здоровья населения издоровья экосистем (глава 5) свидетельствует овысоком уровне моделирования в интересах мор-ских служб и предупреждения стихийных бедст-вий по сравнению с имеющимися моделями длявыявления и прогнозирования изменений явле-ний, которые требуют измерения биологических ихимических переменных параметров. Это говорито важном значении проведения научных исследо-ваний в поддержку развития прибрежного моду-ля.

СОЗДАНИЕ СИСТЕМЫ

Развитие и глобального океанического, и прибреж-ного компонентов ГСНО в решающей степени зави-сит от выборочной и эффективной увязки, укреп-ления и дополнения существующих программ(глава 7). Глобальная прибрежная сеть будет созданана основе комбинации национальных, глобальных ирегиональных процессов. Хотя некоторые элементыэтой системы будут глобальными по своему мас-штабу с самого начала (например ГЛОСС, наблюде-ния из космоса), национальные и региональные сис-темы наблюдений за прибрежной зоной будут ком-


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понентами создания глобальной прибрежной сети.Создаются региональные альянсы ГСНО для пла-нирования и реализации региональных систем на-блюдений, которые станут элементами созданиягло-бального объединения систем (глава 3, раздел3.1). К региональным альянсам ГСНО обращенпризыв создавать прибрежный модуль путем ус-тановления, по мере необходимости, партнерскихсвязей с национальными программами ГСНО,конвенциями о региональных морях, региональ-ными органами по рыболовству, программами покрупным морским экосистемам и другими ор-ганами.

Реализация, оперативная деятельность и развитиеустойчивой системы наблюдений, такой, как Все-мирная служба погоды, потребуют правительст-венных механизмов для обеспечения того, чтобысистемы или элементы систем, выступающие вкачестве кандидатов, проходили четыре стадииразвития:

1. развитие новых знаний, технологий и моделейпутем проведения научных исследований;

2. постоянное тестирование в рамках пилотныхпроектов для обеспечения надежности этихзнаний, технологий и моделей и их принятиянаучным и оперативным сообществами;

3. их использование на стадии, предшествую-щей оперативной, с целью гарантировать, чтоих интеграция в систему наблюдений приве-дет к появлению продуктов с добавленнойстоимостью; и

4. их интеграция в систему оперативных наблю-дений, обладающую устойчивостью.

Этот процесс должен носить селективный харак-тер, причем следует установить критерии для пе-ревода составляющих компонентов ГСНО из на-учно-исследовательской стадии в оперативную наоснове потребностей пользователей. Первым ша-гом в реализации прибрежного модуля ГСНОдолжно быть более совершенное совместное ис-пользование существующих данных и продуктовэлементов систем наблюдений, с тем чтобы начатьих интеграцию в систему наблюдений. Историче-ские данные и сегодняшние потоки данных суще-ствуют в большом объеме, однако беспрепятст-венный доступ ко многим из них у большого чис-ла потенциальных пользователей отсутствует.

НАУЧНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ И РАЗРАБОТКИ,СВЯЗАННЫЕ С СИСТЕМОЙ ОПЕРАТИВНЫХНАБЛЮДЕНИЙ

Научно-техническую основу для разработки при-брежного модуля обеспечивают научные про-граммы, включая программы МПГБ (Взаимодейст-вие между сушей и океаном в прибрежной зоне -ЛОИКЗ; Глобальная динамика океанических эко-систем - ГЛОБЕК; Совместное изучение потоковмирового океана - СИПМО), Перепись морскойжизни (СМЛ), Глобальная экология и океано-графия вредоносного цветения водорослей(ГЭОХАБ), международная программа “Долгосроч-ное изучение экосистем (И-ЛТЕР), а также про-грамма “Взаимное сопоставление и объединениеданных дистанционного зондирования в интересахмеждисциплинарных и океанических исследова-ний” (СИМБИОЗ). Знания и технологии, создава-емые на основе этих и других научных программ,потребуются для всесторонней реализации сис-темы наблюдений. Последняя же, в свою очередь,будет на постоянной и гарантированной основеобеспечивать экологические данные, представля-ющие огромную ценность для морских наук иобразования в их области - во многом подобнотому, как данные, необходимые для прогнозовпогоды, опираются на метеорологическую науку, аметеорологические прогнозы в цифровом форматепользуются достижениями экологических наук вцелом.

Приоритеты для научных исследований и разрабо-ток будут включать следующие направления:

● разработка моделей экосистем для более быст-рой ассимиляции и анализа биологических ихимических данных. Задача состоит в созданиина этой основе оперативных моделей для ис-пользования с целью направлять развитие сис-темы, определять климатологии для общих пе-ременных параметров и обеспечивать болеесовременное выявление и прогнозирование из-менений в явлениях, представляющих интерес;

● установление потребностей в дистанционномзондировании общих переменных параметрови развитие дистанционного зондирования вприбрежных водах. Дальнейшее развертываниесети спутников для наблюдений за океаном, атакже разработка новых средств дистанцион-ного зондирования в целях проведения болеесовершенных, с более высокой разрешающей


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способностью, наблюдений за общими пере-менными параметрами в прибрежной среде;

● установление потребностей в наблюдениях наместах за основными переменными параметра-ми и укрепление возможностей для такихнаблюдений в прибрежных водах, включаяболее быстрое измерение биологических ихимических переменных параметров с болеевысокой разрешающей способностью и теле-метрию в режиме реального времени.

СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО, КООРДИНАЦИЯ ИСОВМЕСТНАЯ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТЬ

Комплексная стратегия глобальных наблюденийподразумевает создание трех взаимосвязанныхсистем наблюдений: Глобальной системы наблюде-ний за климатом (ГСНК), Глобальной системынаблюдений за сушей (ГСНС) и Глобальной систе-мы наблюдений за океаном (ГСНО), которые вкупеносят название ГСН-3. В перспективе прибрежногомодуля ожидается, что ГСНС будет обеспечиватьданные, необходимые для количественного измере-ния параметров атмосферных явлений, ГСНС -явлений на суше, а глобальный океаническиймодуль ГСНО - данные, касающиеся пограничных

условий в открытом океане, и данные, необходи-мые для количественного измерения параметровявлений в масштабе бассейнов.

Реализация прибрежного модуля потребует высо-кого уровня сотрудничества, координации и совме-стной деятельности стран и существующихпрограмм для обеспечения формирования гло-бальной системы по мере того, как к ней будут при-соединяться все новые и новые национальные ирегиональные системы. Важнейшим аспектомэтого процесса будет согласование потребностей вглобальной координации с потребностями пользо-вателей, основывающимися на национальных ирегиональных приоритетах. В настоящее время нетофициального международного механизма, кото-рый направлял бы этот процесс и способствовалего развитию. Для содействия заключению много-сторонних соглашений и решения правовыхвопросов, связанных с осуществлением ЮНКЛОСи других международных конвенций, потребуетсясоздать межправительственную комиссию, подоб-ную Объединенной технической комиссии по океа-нографии и морской метеорологии (ОКОММ),вместе с соответствующими консультативнымиорганами.


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THE MANDATE TO ESTABLISH A GLOBAL

OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM

Intergovernmental agreements that provide thelegal basis for GOOS or stipulate national obliga-tions for cooperation include (1) the 1982 UNConvention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS,including the 1995 U.N. Agreement on StraddlingFish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks), (2)Regional Seas Conventions, (3) the Jakarta Man-date, (4) the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, (5)the Global Plan of Action on Land-Based Sourcesof Pollution, (6) the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS)Convention, (7) the Second World Climate Con-ference, and (3) two conventions and a programmeof action signed at the 1992 UN Conference onEnvironment and Development (UNCED) in Riode Janeiro (the Framework Convention on ClimateChange, Convention on Biodiversity, and the Pro-gramme of Action for Sustainable Development orAgenda 21).

The mandate to establish a Global Ocean ObservingSystem (GOOS) was articulated and ratified as aninternational consensus in 1992 with the signing of theFramework Convention on Climate Change, the Con-vention on Biodiversity, and the Programme of Actionfor Sustainable Development (Agenda 21) at the UNConference on Environment and Development(UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro. In particular, Agenda 21calls for the establishment of a global ocean observingsystem that will enable effective management of themarine environment and sustainable utilization of itsnatural resources. Effective management and sus-tained utilization of the marine environment andits resources depend on our ability to detect andpredict changes in the status of coastal ecosys-tems and living resources and their socio-eco-

nomic consequences. We do not have this capa-bility today. Successful implementation of the observ-ing system will increase the value to society of researchand monitoring in marine and estuarine ecosystems, inpart by providing the data and information required tomeet the conditions of existing international treatiesand conventions and in part by providing the means toroutinely assess and anticipate changes in the status ofcoastal ecosystems and living resources on national toglobal scales.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION

The development of GOOS requires an internation-ally accepted framework for linking, enhancing andsupplementing existing monitoring and research pro-grammes. Agencies of the UN, including the Inter-governmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) ofUNESCO, the United Nations Environment Pro-gramme (UNEP), and the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO), are working together, andwith the International Council for Science (ICSU),as Sponsors, to design and implement the GOOS.GOOS is one component of the Integrated GlobalObserving Strategy (IGOS) that also serves the spaceagencies through the Committee on Earth Observa-tion Satellites (CEOS), the Integrated Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the World Cli-mate Research Programme (WCRP). In addition toGOOS, IGOS comprises the Global ClimateObserving System (GCOS), the Global TerrestrialObserving System (GTOS), the World WeatherWatch (WWW), and the Global Atmosphere Watch(GAW).

The effort to design the system and make the tran-sition from concept to reality is led by the GOOSSteering Committee (GSC). Overall responsibility


29

Prologue

for the development of GOOS is delegated by theSponsors to the IOC, which is advised by the jointIOC-WMO-UNEP Intergovernmental Committeefor GOOS (I-GOOS). I-GOOS is responsible for theformulation of policies and assists in gaining govern-ment approval of and support for implementation.Thesystem is being developed by the Ocean ObservationsPanel for Climate (OOPC) and the Coastal OceanObservations Panel (COOP). COOP is the result ofthe merger of the Coastal-GOOS (C-GOOS), HealthOf The Oceans (HOTO), and Living MarineResources (LMR) panels (IOC, 1998a).

In 1999, an Action Plan was formulated for coordinat-ing the in situ and satellite-based observations requiredto improve global scale weather forecasting (e.g.,ENSO events and their effects regional patterns ofrainfall and the frequence of tropical cyclones) andlong-term climate predictions (IOC/WMO, 1999).The Action Plan gave rise to the Joint Technical Com-mission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology(JCOMM) by the IOC and the WMO. For the firsttime,coordination of and commitments for operationaloceanography are under the aegis of an intergovern-mental organization. JCOMM-1 met in Iceland in2001.

THE COASTAL MODULE OF GOOS

The design and implementation of the coastal mod-ule of GOOS will significantly improve the ability ofparticipating nations to achieve their goals and thegoals of international agreements and conventionsfor environmental protection, sustainable resources,healthy coastal marine and estuarine ecosystems, safeand efficient marine operations, and periodic assess-ments of the status of marine ecosystems. To theseends, the terms of reference for the Coastal OceanObservations Panel are as follows:

(1) Integrate and refine the design plans drafted bythe HOTO, LMR, and the C-GOOS panels todevelop a unified plan for a coastal module ofGOOS that will provide the data and informa-tion required for more rapid detection andtimely prediction of the effects of global cli-mate change and human activities on

• coastal marine services (safe and efficient marine operations and coastal hazards);

• public health and safety;• the health of coastal marine and estuarine

ecosystems; and• the sustainability of living marine

resources.(2) The unified plan shall be consistent with the

GOOS Design Principles.(3) Develop mechanisms for more effective and

sustained involvement of user groups in thedesign and implementation of the coastalmodule of GOOS.

(4) Develop mechanisms that enable effective syn-ergy between research and the development ofa sustained observing system for coastal marineand estuarine ecosystems.

(5) Formulate an implementation plan that iscoordinated with the OOPC plan for climateservices, research and marine services with dueemphasis on• integrated observations;• data and information management;• data assimilation and modelling for the pur

poses of prediction and product development;

• capacity building; and • national, regional, and global promotion of

objectives and benefits of the observing system.

(6) Establish criteria and procedures for selectingobserving system elements on global andregional scales, and recommend the elementsthat will constitute the initial observing sys-tem.

(7) Define procedures for ongoing evaluation ofsystem components, reliability of data streams,access to data, and applications.

The design of coastal GOOS must take intoaccount the changing mix of ecosystem types thatconstitute the coastal environment in differentregions of the world and the time-space scales thatcharacterize the phenomena of interest withinthem. In addition, although the emphasis is on“coastal”, the terms of reference for COOP makeit clear that the observing system should extendinto the deep sea to the extent that global carbonand nitrogen cycles, fisheries, the transport andeffects of contaminants, and mineral explorationand extraction are not restricted to coastal ecosys-tems. Consequently, the boundary between coastal


30

and deep-sea ecosystems cannot be fixed geograph-ically and will depend on the nature of the phe-nomenon to be detected or predicted. In archipel-

ago seas and semi-enclosed sea basins the coastalmodule of GOOS will observe the whole sea basinfrom coast to coast between adjacent states.


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The importance of establishing the coastal moduleis related to two global patterns: (1) ecosystemgoods and services are concentrated in coastalmarine and estuarine systems relative to terrestrialand open ocean systems (Costanza et al., 1997;Daily et al., 2000); and (2) the number of peopleliving, working, and playing within 100 km of thecoastline is high and increasing rapidly relative tomore inland locations (Hinrichsen, 1998; Small etal., 2000; Nicholls and Small, 2002).Today, there areover 5 billion people on earth, about 38% of whomlive in the coastal zone within 100 km of the coast-line at elevations less than 100 m (Small andNicholls, 2003).The global population is predictedto more than double by 2050 with the greatestincreases occurring in the coastal zone (UnitedNations, 1996). As the number and density of peo-ple living in the coastal zone increases, the demandson coastal systems to support commerce, livingresources, recreation, and living space and toreceive, process, and dilute the effluents of humansociety will continue to grow, e.g., land-basedsources account for about 80% of the annual inputof contaminants to the coastal ocean (UNEP,1995).

Coastal ecosystems are experiencing unprecedent-ed changes as indicated by the occurrence of orincreases in a diversity of phenomena that representa broad spectrum of variability in time, space andecological complexity (Table 1.1). Apparentincreases in the occurrence of many of these phe-nomena indicate profound changes in the capacityof coastal ecosystems to support goods and servic-es.They are making the coastal zone more suscep-tible to natural hazards, more costly to live in, andof less value to national economies.Thus, it is like-

ly that, in the absence of a system for improveddetection and prediction of the phenomena ofinterest and their environmental and socio-eco-nomic affects, conflicts between commerce, recre-ation, development, environmental protection, andthe management of living resources will becomeincreasingly contentious and politically charged.The social and economic costs of uninformeddecisions will increase accordingly (Chapter 2).

1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE

The purpose of the coastal module of GOOS is toestablish a sustained and integrated ocean observ-ing system that makes more effective use of exist-ing resources, new knowledge, and advances intechnology to provide the data and informationrequired to:

(1) Improve the safety and efficiency of marineoperations;

(2) More effectively control and mitigate theeffects of natural hazards;

(3) Improve the capacity to detect and predict theeffects of global climate change on coastalecosystems;

(4) Reduce public health risks;(5) More effectively protect and restore healthy

ecosystems; and (6) More effectively restore and sustain living

marine resources.


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1. Introduction


34

“Natural”

Anthropogenic

Marine Services,Natural Hazards andPublic Safety

Public Health

Ecosystem Health

Living Resources

FORCINGS• Global warming and sea level rise• Storms and other extreme weather events• Seismic events• Ocean scale currents• Waves, tides and storm surges• River and ground water discharges

• Physical restructuring of the environment• Alteration of the hydrological cycle • Harvesting living and nonliving resources• Alteration of nutrient cycles• Sediment inputs• Chemical contamination• Inputs of human pathogens• Introductions of non-native species

PHENOMENA OF INTEREST• Fluctuations in sea level• Changes in sea state• Changes in surface and sub-surface currents• Coastal flooding events• Changes in shoreline and shallow water bathymetry

• Seafood contamination• Increasing abundance of pathogens (in water, shellfish)

• Habitat modification and loss• Changes in biodiversity• Eutrophication• Changes in water clarity• Harmful algal events• Invasive species• Biological affects of chemical contaminants• Disease and mass mortalities of marine organisms• Chemical contamination of the environment

• Abundance of exploitable living marine resources• Harvest of capture fisheries• Aquaculture harvest

Table 1.1. Drivers of change (natural and anthropogenic forcings) and associated phenomena of interest in coastal marineecosystems that are the subject of the coastal module of GOOS. Much of the reasoning behind this table is explained later inChapters 4 and 5, and Annexes III and IV.Although a distinction is made between natural and anthropogenic forcings, there arefew if any “natural” forcings that do not have a human signature of some sort (e.g., climate change, river and ground water dis-charge, nutrient enrichment). Sea ice and certain tropical phenomena are omitted because they are not truly global in occur-rence (Chapter 3; Figure 3.1).

Achieving these goals depends on more timelydetection and prediction2 of local phenomena thatreflect the structure and function of coastal3 ecosys-tems and the external forcings that impinge on them(Table 1.1). This requires observations and estimates(usually model calculations) of physical and ecosys-tem properties and processes, of interactions amongcoastal marine and estuarine ecosystems, and of

exchanges across the land-sea boundary, the air-seainterface, and the boundary between shelf and deep-sea waters (Figure 1.1).Thus, the design of the coastalmodule of GOOS must take into consideration boththe complex nature of the coastal environment andthe multiple forcings that impinge on them (e.g.,Chelton et al., 1982; Steele, 1985; Powell, 1989;NRC, 1994; Cloern, 1996).


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1.2 LARGE SCALE EXTERNAL FORCINGS

Although the phenomena of interest tend to be localin scale, they are globally ubiquitous a pattern thatsuggests they are, more often than not, local expres-sions of larger scale forcings of natural origin, anthro-pogenic origin, or both. External forcings includeinputs of energy (e.g., winds, tides, currents andwaves, solar radiation) and materials (e.g., freshwater,sediments, nutrients, organic matter, contaminants,organisms) from terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanicsources (Figure 1.1). In addition to the combinedeffects of these inputs, the effects of human activitiesare increasing rapidly in magnitude and complexitydue to changing inputs related to rapid increases in

population density, human alterations of hydrologicaland nutrient cycles and associated increases in theinputs of nutrients and contaminants from land-based sources, destruction of marine and estuarinehabitats, commercial and recreational fisheries, andintroductions of invasive species and pathogens. Largescale forcings that impact socio-economic systems,coastal ecosystems, and living marine resourcesinclude the following:

• Basin scale oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (e.g., Barber and Chavez,1986; Dayton and Tegner, 1984;Wilkinson et al.,1999; Kudela and Chavez, 2000; Arcos et al.,2001), the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation(e.g., Francis and Hare, 1994), and the NorthAtlantic Oscillation (e.g., Pearce and Frid, 1999);

• Global climate change including global warm-ing, sea level rise, and changes in the hydrologi-cal cycle (e.g., Bolin et al., 1986; Mikolajewicz etal., 1990; Barry et al., 1995;Warrick et al., 1996;Najjar et al., 2000);

Figure 1.1. Changes in the phenomena of interest reflect both the internal (physical, biological, chemical and geological)dynamics of coastal ecosystems and exchanges of energy and matter with terrestrial, atmospheric and deep ocean systems.Thisschematic reflects the context of limited-area numerical models used to predict changes in properties and processes.To under-stand and predict changes in coastal ecosystems, it is often necessary to quantify the states and rates of exchanges at the land-seaboundary (L), the air-sea interface (A), and the boundary used to delineate the coastal environment and the deep sea (S).With-in coastal ecosystems, both benthic (B) and pelagic (P) properties and processes must be measured.

2 For the purposes of the coastal module of GOOS, “prediction” is defined in itsbroadest sense to include nowcasts and forecasts as well as estimates (interpolating,extrapolating) of quantities or distributions that are not directly observed.3 For the purposes of the coastal module, “coastal” refers to regional mosaics ofhabitats including intertidal habitats (mangroves, marshes, mud flats, rocky shores,sandy beaches), semi-enclosed bodies of water (estuaries, sounds, bays, fjords, gulfs,seas), benthic habitats (coral reefs, seagrass beds, kelp forests, hard and soft bottoms)and the open waters of the coastal ocean to the seaward limits of the Exclusive Eco-nomic Zone (EEZ), i.e., from the head of tide to the outer limits of the EEZ.The“coastal zone” refers to the land margin within 100 km of the coastline or less than100 m above mean low tide, which ever comes first (Small et al., 2000; Nicholls andSmall, 2002).

• Changes in inputs of water, sediments, nutri-ents and contaminants (chemicals and patho-genic organisms) from coastal drainage basinsdue to human activities (e.g., Limburg andSchmidt, 1990; Vitousek et al., 1997; Jickells,1998; Howarth et al., 1991; Howarth et al.,2000);

• Extraction of living marine resources (e.g.,Houde and Rutherford, 1993; Pauly et al.,1998; Jackson et al., 2001); and

• Introductions of human pathogens, non-nativespecies, and oil spills related to the globalisa-tion of commerce (e.g., shipping – ballastwater discharge, seafood shipments) and thetranslocation of species from one region toanother (e.g., Carlton, 1996 and referencestherein).

The importance of quantifying these forcings inthe design of the coastal module of GOOSunderscores the need for an integrated approachthat coordinates the development of the coastalmodule of GOOS with the ocean-climate mod-ule, GTOS (Annex VI), and the development ofthe IGOS.

1.3 ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS

The structure and function of marine ecosystemsare, to a great extent, dependent on physical process-es. Changes in biological, chemical and geologicalproperties and processes are related through a hier-archy of physical-ecological interactions that can berepresented by robust models of ecosystems dynam-ics (Section 5 and Nihoul and Djenidi, 1998; Hof-mann and Lascara, 1998; Rothschild and Fogarty,1998; Robinson, 1999; Liu et al., 2000; Cloern,2001, Moll and Radach, 2001). Coastal ecosystemsare constrained by irregular coastlines and a shallow,highly variable bathymetry. Within coastal ecosys-tems, interactions between intertidal, benthic andpelagic communities enhance nutrient cycles, pri-mary productivity and the capacity of coastal ecosys-

tems to support goods and services relative to ocean-ic systems. Physical and biological processes resonateover shorter time scales (higher frequencies) andover a broader spectrum of variability compared toboth terrestrial and deep, open ocean systems. Con-sequently, populations and processes in coastalecosystems are more variable on smaller space andshorter time scales than is typical for either oceanicor terrestrial ecosystems.

The time-space relationships of turbulent mixing,generation times of marine organisms, life histories,home ranges, and trophic dynamics suggest a closecoupling between physical and biological processesover a broad range of time (hours - decades) andspace (1 -1000 km) scales (Figure 1.2). Biologicaland physical processes exhibit characteristic scales ofvariability that are related in a multidimensionalcontinuum of time, space and ecological complexity(Gardner et al., 2001), i.e., large spatial scales tend tobe associated with long time scales and with greaterbiodiversity, and small scales tend to be associatedwith short time scales and with less biodiversity(e.g., Odum, 1971; Diamond and May, 1976; Steele,1985; Dickey, 1991; Costanza et al., 1993). On thescale of the ocean basins and their circulations, thedistribution and abundance of species are related towater mass distributions, large scale current regimes,mesoscale eddies, and frontal systems. At smallerscales, the abundance and distribution of organismsare related to interactions between turbulent mixingand biological attributes such as motility, mecha-nisms of nutrient uptake and feeding, and patterns ofreproduction and development. Thus, the scale-dependent linkage of ecological processes to thephysical environment is fundamental to under-standing and predicting spatial and temporal vari-ability and pattern (e.g., variance spectra and frag-mentation, time-space substitution) and size-dependent trophic interactions from small organismswith short generation times (e.g., bacteria and phy-toplankton) to large organisms with longer genera-tion times (e.g., macrobenthic and fish populations).


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1.4 AN ECOSYSTEM-BASED APPROACH

Clearly, changes in or the occurrence of the phe-nomena of interest reflect both the structure andfunction of coastal ecosystems and the external forc-ings that impinge on them.Thus, managing and mit-igating the effects of human activities and climate inan ecosystem context is emerging as a unifyingtheme for environmental protection, resource man-agement, and integrated coastal area management(NRC, 1999a and b; Sherman and Duda, 1999;

UNEP, 2001; and Chapter 2 of this report). Imple-menting an ecosystem-based approach requires theability to engage in adaptive management4, a processthat depends on the capability to routinely and rap-idly detect changes in the phenomena of interest andto provide timely predictions of them. We do nothave this capability today. While many physicalprocesses are forecast on a routine basis, the fron-tier of development, and the biggest demand, is foroperational ecosystem models required for adaptivemanagement.


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Figure 1.2. Temporal and spatial scales for selected forcings and phenomena of interest. The forcings and phenomena ofinterest exhibit characteristic scales of variability that, when taken together, form a broad continuum of variability from hoursto decades and meters to thousands of kilometres. Most of the phenomena of interest are local expressions of larger scale forc-ings of natural origin, anthropogenic origin, or both. Thus, a broad spectrum of variability from global to local scales must beobserved to quantify and predict the effects of large scale forcings on coastal ecosystems.

4 The formulation and implementation of environmental policies is an iterativeprocedure that acknowledges uncertainty rather than the implementation of “stat-ic” answers.Adaptive management is the process by which decisions are made basedon the current state and projected changes in the state of the environment, as wellas on economic and social considerations. Implementation of the adaptive manage-ment approach requires continuous monitoring and rapid assessments of changingecological and economic conditions.

A new approach is needed that enables adaptivemanagement through routine, continuous andrapid provision of data and information over thebroad spectrum of time-space scales required tolink ecosystem (local) scale changes to basin andglobal scale forcings.We are, in fact, on the cusp ofa revolution that will make such an approach feasi-ble. The revolution is occurring on two relatedfronts: (1) advances in observing and modellingcapabilities and (2) the emergence of operationaloceanography. Key drivers of rapid increases inobserving and modelling capabilities are advancesin data communications and computing power;remote and in situ sensing; the capacity to measurekey physical, biological and chemical variables syn-optically in time and space; and methods for link-ing observations to models.These advances are, forthe first time, making it possible to visualizechanges in the four dimensions of space and timeand to quantify the effects of anthropogenic andclimatic forcings. The time is right to establish anintegrated ocean observing system that capitalizeson current and emerging technologies and knowl-edge.

1.5 THE RESEARCH BASE

The diversity of issues to be addressed and their com-plex and interdisciplinary nature also underscore theimportance of synergy between research programmesand the development of the coastal module.Researchprogrammes and observing systems are mutuallydependent processes that define a continuum ofrelated activities. The observing system will be oflimited value if it is not based on sound science anddesigned to improve through research and develop-ment (improved understanding, models, sensor tech-nologies, assimilation techniques). Likewise, researchis of limited value if it is not conducted in the con-text of larger scale observations in both time andspace (long term time-series, synoptic observationson large spatial scales). Although both research pro-grammes and observing systems may have many ele-ments in common, the development of the observingsystem is driven by societal needs while research pro-grammes are driven by scientific hypotheses. Thepurpose of the observing system is to detect and pre-dict patterns of change. In contrast, the purpose ofenvironmental research is to test hypotheses con-


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BOX 1.1. FISHERIES MANAGEMENT

The Intergovernmental Reykjavik Declaration onResponsible Fisheries committed signatory States,inter alia, to “advance the scientific basis for develop-ing and implementing management strategies thatincorporate ecosystem considerations and which willensure sustainable yields while conserving stocks andmaintaining the integrity of ecosystems and habitatson which they depend.”Thus,ecosystem-based fisherymanagement explicitly takes into account fishingeffects on critical habitat, trophic structure and ecosys-tem function, and the role of physical environmentalforcing. In this context, the “Workshop on the Ecosys-tem Approach to Management and Protection of theNorth Sea” (Oslo, 15-17 June, 1998) identified moni-toring as a key component of an ecosystem approach(Sætre et al., 2001).

Although efforts to understand fisheries in an ecosys-tem context have increased in recent years, species-specific management continues to be the norm inmost regions.However, the global escalation in fishing

pressure on fish populations and increasing recogni-tion of the importance of direct and indirect effects offishing on the carrying capacity of ecosystems for liv-ing resources has led to greater emphasis on learninghow to manage fisheries in an ecosystem context(NRC, 1999a; UNEP, 2001).

Preservation of biodiversity is an essential componentof this approach. Ecosystem-based management seeksto overcome the limitations of single-species manage-ment which does not account for the effects of har-vesting both target and non-target species, of changesin trophic dynamics, and of habitat-related impacts.Ecosystem-based management is predicated on therecognition that ecosystems provide a broad spectrumof goods and services that are essential to the integri-ty of the biosphere and to human welfare. Manage-ment of living marine resources, therefore, requiresconsideration of both the need to sustain harvests andthe need to sustain ecosystem processes that supportbiodiversity and maintain water quality.

cerning the causes and consequence of environmen-tal changes. Thus, environmental research pro-grammes are finite in duration while the observingsystem must be sustained in perpetuity.These consid-erations have important implications for the designand implementation of the observing system.

1.6 COOPERATION, COORDINATION AND

COLLABORATION

Establishing the coastal module of GOOS requiresunprecedented levels of cooperation, coordination andcollaboration among government ministries and agen-cies, regional bodies, and existing research and moni-toring programmes. By building on existing activities,capabilities, and infrastructure, and by using a phasedimplementation approach, work can start immediatelyto achieve the vision. New technologies, past invest-ments, evolving scientific understanding, advances incommunications and data processing, and pressingsocietal needs combine to provide both the opportu-nity and the motivation to initiate an integratedobserving system for coastal waters immediately. Themajor pieces missing are an internationally accept-

ed global design; international commitments ofassets and funds; and partnerships among nations,regional associations, institutions, data providersand users.

This report proposes the strategic design for the glob-al component of the coastal module of GOOS. It isdivided into three sections: (1) rationale and goals(Prologue, Chapters 1 and 2), (2) design (Chapters 3,4, 5 and 6), and (3) initial guidelines for formulating anImplementation Plan (Chapter 7).The plan presents avision for the coastal module of GOOS; defines thethree subsystems that constitute an integrated systemof observations, data management and analysis; anddescribes how they relate to each other to achieve anoperational system. It articulates a framework forcoordinating the development of an international sys-tem that makes more cost-effective use of collectiveresources to assess the state of the marine environ-ment, to detect changes more rapidly, and to providemore timely predictions of changes and their impactson society.This is the first step toward the formulationof an implementation plan which is expected to becompleted by the end of 2004.


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As discussed in Chapter 1, increasing human activityin the coastal zone is a major driver of changes in thephenomena of interest in coastal waters. The latterare related to rapid increases in population density,human alterations of hydrological and nutrient cyclesand associated increases in the inputs of nutrients andcontaminants from land-based sources, destruction ofmarine and estuarine habitats, commercial and recre-ational fisheries, and introductions of invasive speciesand pathogens. A recent report by the UnitedNations Joint Group of Experts on the ScientificAspects of Marine Environmental Protection(GESAMP) concludes that, although there have beensome notable successes in controlling the effects ofhuman activities on land-based sources of marinepollution that have improved water quality in somecoastal ecosystems (e.g., sewage treatment in devel-oped countries), the global degradation of the marineenvironment continues and is intensifying in manyplaces (GESAMP, 2001a).

Beginning with a summary of human demograph-ics and the value of coastal ecosystems, this chapterdescribes a broad spectrum of human activities andrelated environmental changes, the management ofwhich would benefit from an integrated oceanobserving system. Emphasis is placed on humanactivities and their impacts on marine and estuar-ine ecosystems rather than on the market value ofgoods and services provided by coastal systems.Improvements in safety and efficiency marineoperations that depend primarily on the measure-ment and analysis of physical variables are discussedelsewhere (e.g., Adams et al., 2000; Droppert et al.,2000).

Human activities and their environmental conse-quences are treated in five broad categories: (1)

human modifications and physical alterations of thecoastal zone and associated contaminant inputs; (2)introductions of non-native species; (3) oil spills; (4)human health risks; and (5) harvesting living marineresources. The central theme is the role of human-induced stressors in the coastal environment.Although the potential consequences of sea level riseare not addressed explicitly, the effects of humanactivities on coastal habitats should be considered inthis context. Most estimates of global mean sea levelrise are in the range of 38 to 55 cm over the next 100years (Warrick et al., 1996). According to Nichollsand Leatherman (1995), a 1 m rise in sea level (theworse case scenario) will affect 6 million people inEgypt with a loss of 15% of agriculture land, 13 mil-lion in Bangladesh with a drop of 16% in rice pro-duction, and 72 million in China with a loss of a mil-lion km2 or more of agriculture land. In addition todirect land-loss, sea level rise is expected to exacer-bate current trends of habitat loss (tidal marshes, seagrasses, coral reefs) and declines in fisheries, alter ero-sion patterns, damage coastal infrastructure, contami-nate wells and coastal aquifers with salt, and affect theefficiency of sewage treatment systems in coastalcities with resulting impacts on public health (WHO,1996).

2.1 HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

2.1.1 Population Growth in the Coastal Zone

The rapid increase in population density along theworld’s 450,000 km of coast line (Pinet, 1999) is astriking feature of human demographics that charac-terizes the last 2000 years of human development andgrowth (Chapter 1). The present population ofcoastal areas exceeds the total global population ofjust fifty years ago (Bowen and Crumbley, 1999).


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2. Coastal Ecosystems:The Human Dimension

Although estimates of the proportion of the humanpopulation living in the coastal zone vary widely(30% – 50%, e.g., GESAMP, 2001b; Small andNicholls, 2003; Shuval, 2003), it is clear that coastalpopulations are large and growing rapidly within 100km of the coastline at altitudes less than 100 m (Smallet al., 2000).The rapid increase in population densi-ty along the world’s coastlines reflects both indige-nous growth and migrations from inland areas(NOAA, 1998). The latter is a consequence of sea-sonal increases in population (tourism, migrantworkers) and more permanent increases as migrantsbecome residents.

The last decades of the 20th Century witnessedunprecedented growth in tourism and recreationalong the shoreline. By most measures, recreationaluse of the coastal zone has become the world’s largesteconomic sector and a major source of revenue forinfrastructure development and improvement. TheWorld Tourism Organization estimates nearly 700million international arrivals during 2000, an increaseof 7.4 % over 1999. Receipts from internationaltourism are estimated to be 476 billion USD, agrowth of 4.5 % over the previous year. Since 1985,the number of international tourist arrivals has morethan doubled.


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BOX 2.1. POPULATIONS AT RISK

Coastal populations are impacted by a variety of natu-ral hazards including erosion, saltwater intrusions, sub-sidence, tsunamis and floods due to both storm surgesand rivers. Exposure to such natural hazards is expect-ed to increase due to both increases in population den-sity in low lying coastal areas and the effects of globalclimate change (e.g., sea level rise and possible increas-es in the frequency of extreme weather events).Recent estimates of the global distribution of peopleshow the following (Nicholls and Small, 2002; Smalland Nicholls, 2003):

(1) The number of people inhabiting the near-coastalzone (within 100 km of the shoreline – distance –and 100 m of mean sea level – height) is about 1.9 109 or about 38% of the 1990 global popula-tion (a figure that is considerably lower than isoften quoted, e.g., Hinrichsen, 1998).

(2) About 40% of the near-coastal population inhab-its 4% of the near-coastal land area at local popu-lations densities of about 1,000 people km2. Themost densely populated near-coastal areas are inEurope and south, southeast and east Asia. Thus,despite the concentration of people near coasts,the majority of land area within the near-coastalzone is relatively sparsely populated.

(3) While eleven of the world’s fifteen largest cities (> 10,000 people km2) are located in the near-coastal zone, only about 10% of the near-coastalpopulations live in these cities. Most of theexposed population is in small cities and in ruralsettings such as densely populated deltaic areas

(1,000 people km2). However, urbanization isexpected to continue at rapid rates, and these pat-terns are likely to change.

Although analyses such as this reveal important pat-terns, there is considerable uncertainty associated withthese and other estimates of population densities in thecoastal zone (Small et al., 2000).We know that coastalpopulations are growing and urbanizing, but currentexposure to natural hazards is poorly quantified.This ispartly due to the lack of a consistent definition of the“coastal zone.” In addition, while quantifying popula-tions exposed directly to natural hazards is conceptu-ally straightforward, indirect exposure, including widersocio-economic impacts, is not. For example, stormsurges directly affect life and livelihoods within a shortdistance of the shoreline while indirect impacts may bemuch broader if infrastructure and services such aswaste water treatment facilities, ports, agriculture, andpower plants are incapacitated.

More accurate estimates of population distribution arenot only important for estimating risks of exposure tonatural hazards, they provide a measure of the directhuman pressure on the coastal zone. Consequently,improved estimates of coastal population and hazardexposure would benefit many user groups from theinsurance industry and policy makers responsible forsustainable development to those concerned withimproving regional estimates of the effects of globalclimate change and the design of global observing sys-tems.

Coastal migration is associated with significant cul-tural transformations in the countries experiencingit. Most migration is from rural to urban environ-ments. Two thirds of cities with over 2.5 millioninhabitants and 14 of the world’s “megacities”(> 10 million people) are within 100 km of thecoast. The rapid growth of large cities along thecoastline is associated with unique cultural, eco-nomic, and environmental characteristics and prob-lems (World Bank, 1991; UN, 1998). As describedin the following sections, the development ofcoastal megacities and the rapid increase in numberof people in the coastal zone are causing changes incoastal ecosystems that are important to the health,safety and well being of human populations on aglobal scale.

2.1.2 Value of Ecosystem Goods and Services in the Coastal Zone

Recognition of the unintended consequences ofhuman activities on coastal ecosystems has led toincreased interest in understanding the costs ofenvironmental degradation and the value of moreenlightened management. A major reason peopleare attracted to coastal environments is related toaccess to goods and services from natural resourcesand recreation, to aesthetic appreciation (Table2.1). Based on a comprehensive assessment of thevalue of ecosystem goods and services on a globalscale, Costanza et al. (1997) concluded that theirglobal value is on the order of 33 trillion USD per

year. Significantly, their estimates suggest thatmarine ecosystems provide 64% of these goods andservices with coastal systems, which account forabout 10% of the world’s surface area, providing38% of the global total.Although controversial, thisand other analysis (e.g., Daily et al., 2000) clearlyestablish the importance of coastal ecosystems interms of their value to society.

Major efforts have been initiated to refine such esti-mates and to develop an accepted methodology fordetermining the value of non-marketable goods andservices. An approach gaining broad support withinthe coastal community is the establishment of ecosys-tem values based on three categories of use (Turnerand Adger, 1995;Turner, et al., 2000; Cesar, 2000). Assummarized in Table 2.1, direct use values are mar-ket-based; indirect use values are goods and servicesprovided by ecosystems that cannot be bought andsold in the market place; and non-use values are basedon cultural and aesthetic factors that transcend theview of nature as a collection of marketable objects.Natural systems hold intrinsic values that can only bearticulated in their contribution to social, cultural, psy-chological, and aesthetic needs. It is only throughrecognition that natural systems provide value throughall three of these classes that an effective assessment canbe made of their value to society.Table 2.1 summarizesthese categories as they are related to these criticalcoastal habitats. Similar tabulations could be made forother coastal habitats such as tundra coasts, polarcoasts, Mediterranean coasts, etc.


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2.2 PHYSICAL ALTERATIONS OF THE

COASTAL ZONE

Habitat modification and loss are among the clear-est effects of increasing human activities in thecoastal zone. A comprehensive treatment of thissubject and associate contaminant inputs and theireffects is not attempted here. Rather, examplesgiven below illustrate the broad scope of humanimpacts on coastal habitats. We emphasize that the

message is not to forego development in thecoastal zone, but to engage in scientificallyinformed development that considers both criti-cal (short-term) and chronic (long-term) impactsof human activities on environmental quality andthe quality of life. Sustained development of thecoastal zone requires sustained observations thatprovide the data and information needed to realizethe benefits of fostering a symbiotic relationshipbetween economic vitality and ecosystem health.


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DIRECT USE VALUESCapture Fisheries

Tourism/Recreation

Manufactured Products

Pharmaceutical and BiotechnologyProducts

INDIRECT USE VALUESFlood Protection/Coastal Stabiliza-tion

Nutrient Cycling/Toxics Retention

Groundwater Replenishment

Biological Support/Habitat

NON-USE VALUESCultural and aesthetic

• Provide protected, spawning environment for commercially and recreationallyvaluable species. Seventy-five percent of commercially caught species in tropicalsystems spend some time in mangroves or are dependent on food chains tracedto mangrove systems. Coral environments provide up to 25% of total finfish pro-duction in developing countries (Souter and Linden, 2000).

• Provide active recreational values to recreational divers and hunters. Providepassive recreations value to naturalists. Florida reefs contribute an estimated 1.6billion USD to local economies (Birkeland, 1997).

• Provide hardwood for construction, charcoal and wood chips (mangroves). Pro-vide coral jewellery and construction material for jetties and other coastal struc-tures, (corals).

• Provide a rich resource for the development of medicines and other products.Half of all cancer research is concentrating on active compounds from marineorganisms (Fenical, 1996).

• Provide flood control for coastal and estuarine systems and shoreline protectionfrom erosion by oceanic swells and tropical storms. Estimates in eastern Eng-land estimate the stabilization and protection value of coastal river wetlands at45 USD per meter of bank (RAMSAR, 2001). Near Boston, the flood controlvalue of the 3,800 hectares of the Charles River are estimated to provide 17 mil-lion USD annual value (Tiner, 1984).

• Provide depositional environments for sediment-bound nutrients. Wetland plantsrecycle nutrients limiting introduction to coastal waters. For certain toxics wet-land systems can serve to reduce inputs to coastal/marine waters.

• Provide replenishment to underground aquifers. In Florida, a single 223,000hectare swamp has been valued at 25 million USD per year for freshwaterrecharge/storage value (RAMSAR, 2001).

• Provide value in the form of biodiversity.

• Provide cultural and aesthetic value that help define the history and culture ofcoastal communities.

Table 2.1. Values provided by coral reefs, tidal marshes and mangrove forests.

2.2.1 Land-use and Land-based Sources of Pollution

Recognizing that the Global Terrestrial ObservingSystem (GTOS) will explicitly address land-use prac-tices and that coordination with GTOS is critical toachieving the goals of GOOS (Annex VI), this sec-tion provides an overview of land-use practices in thecoastal zone that significantly affect coastal marineand estuarine ecosystems by modifying or destroyingcritical habitats or by altering fluxes of water, sedi-ments, nutrients, chemical contaminants, and humanpathogens from land to estuarine and marine sys-tems. A thorough review of land-based sources andhuman activities affecting the health and uses ofcoastal marine and estuarine systems may be found inGESAMP (2001a). Three categories of land-use arediscussed: urban development, the construction ofdams, and agriculture.

Urban development (including the construction ofroads and causeways, land reclamation, and hardeningthe shoreline) and agriculture alter the coastal zonethrough deforestation and the destruction or modifi-cation of critical habitats including tidal wetlands(mangrove forests, marshes, mud flats) and coral reefs.It has been estimated, for example, that 50% of theworld’s tidal wetlands have been lost due to humanactivities (Spalding et al., 1997; Kelleher et al., 1995;Gilbert and Janssen, 1998; Mitsch et al., 1994;Tiner,1984; CEC, 1995). Such changes not only causedeclines in species diversity and living resources, theymake coastal populations more susceptible to naturalhazards; increase the fluxes of water, sediments andnutrients from land to the sea; and decrease the aes-thetic value of coastal environments.

The construction of dams has been practiced forthousands of years as a means to store water forhuman consumption and irrigation, control flooding,and generate electricity. At least 45,000 dams havebeen built, and nearly half of the world’s rivers haveat least one large dam (5-15 meters high with reser-voirs of more than 3 million m3). More than 300“giant” or “major” dams (at least 150 meters) havebeen constructed.Although dams have made signifi-cant contributions to human development, unin-tended environmental impacts include alteration ofnutrient cycles, salt contamination of freshwater sup-plies, declines in coastal fisheries, and increases incoastal erosion (Soares, 1998).

In addition to its impacts on coastal zone habitats,the development of modern agriculture was madepossible by the use synthetic inorganic fertilizers, theproduction and application of which has increasednearly 10 fold over the last 50 years on a global scale.This has altered the global nitrogen cycle and lead toa rapid increase in the flux of nitrogen and phos-phorus to coastal waters via surface runoff, ground-water discharge and atmospheric deposition(Vitousek et al., 1997; Howarth, 1998). Theseprocesses, and increases in the discharge of sewagewastes, are the primary causes of coastal eutrophica-tion and associated declines in water quality (e.g.,oxygen depletion, increases in turbidity), loss of crit-ical habitats such as coral reefs and sea grass beds(NRC, 2000), and declines in living marineresources. Over-enrichment of coastal waters mayalso be increasing the probability of harmful algalevents, the growth of non-native species, and lossesof biodiversity (NRC, 2000). Consequently, the fluxof nutrients from land-based sources is considered tobe a major cause of environmental degradation incoastal marine and estuarine ecosystems (e.g.,Howarth et al., 2000). Nutrient enrichment is rapid-ly increasing in developing countries and is consid-ered by many to be among the most significant pol-lution problems in coastal ecosystems.

Concurrent increases in pesticide use in agriculturehave also resulted in chemical contamination of estu-arine and marine environments and living resources.Pesticides (e.g., aldrin, chlordane, DDT, dieldrin,endrin, heptachlor, mirex, toxaphene) are classified aspersistent organic pollutants (POPs). The primaryroutes by which these compounds are delivered tocoastal ecosystems are surface runoff and pointsource discharges. For the oceans as a whole, wind-borne atmospheric deposition accounts for over 90%of total inputs (Duce et al., 1991).

Other major land-based sources of POPs includereleases of industrial chemicals (e.g., PCBs, hexa-chlorobenzene, dioxins and furans) and petroleumhydrocarbons. Oil contamination is addressed in sec-tion 2.4 below.

2.2.2 Dredging and Trawling

Two major activities that physically alter subtidalhabitats are dredging and bottom trawling. Clark


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(1977) characterized dredging as the “single greatestthreat to coastal ecosystems.” In addition to dredging,bottom trawling can have a significant impact on softbottom habitats and the organisms that inhabit them.Watling and Norse (1998) estimate that about 60% ofthe global continental shelf area has been swept bybottom trawls. The long-term impacts of this areunknown but are likely to be substantial.

Dredged sediments currently constitute between80% and 90% (by volume) of all anthropogenicmaterials dumped into the ocean. Several hundredmillion m3 of coastal sediments are dredged and dis-posed of annually worldwide (Pinet, 1999). And,while large-scale capital construction and port main-tenance dredging receives most attention, it is impor-tant to note that the cumulative effect of small scaledredging for a broad range of coastal developmentprojects may equal or exceed larger scale activities.

2.3 INTRODUCTIONS OF NON-NATIVE

SPECIES

Today, shipping transports 80% of all commoditiestraded globally. An unintended consequence is theintroduction of non-native species. For the first time,whole plankton communities are being transportedon a global scale between continents as ships take onand discharge their ballast water.Today, it is estimat-ed that 80,000 vessels carry 12 billion tons of ballastwater yearly holding the potential to carry in excessof 4,500 different species.

The economic cost of these introductions can behigh.The Black Sea anchovy fishery had been valuedat 250 million USD/year before its collapse as a con-sequence of the invasion of the ctenophore M. leidyi(Harbison and Volovik, 1994). In the United Statestwo introduced mollusk species have been particular-ly devastating. The zebra mussel was first found inLake St. Clair after having been introduced throughthe dumping of European ballast water in the GreatLakes. It has since spread into much of the easternUnited States where densities have reached as high as70,000/m2 in some locations. High mussel densitiescan clog water intake and filtration systems in variouscoastal installations and deprive indigenous species offood, oxygen and space. It is estimated that zebramussels cause upwards of 5 billion USD in damageand associated control costs annually. Costs associated

with the introduction of the Chinese clam in SanFrancisco bay have been estimated to reach 1 billionUSD annually (Pimentel et al., 1999).

2.4 PETROLEUM HYDROCARBONS

In addition to fouling shorelines, petroleum hydro-carbons are toxic to many marine organisms (marinemammals, seabirds, fishes) and can reduce growth,alter feeding behaviour, and lower reproductive suc-cess.

Although accidental oil pollution from massive dis-charges from oil tankers and rigs tend to be spectac-ular and alarming (e.g., 1989 Exxon Valdez in theGulf of Alaska; 1979-80 blow out of Ixtoc in the Bayof Campeche; Saddam Hussein’s intentional releaseof oil from Kuwait’s Sea Island storage facility anddestruction of over 600 oil wells in 1991), theseevents account for only about <50% of the release ofpetroleum hydrocarbons to the global ocean (Hin-richsen, 1998; National Safety Council, 1998). Oilpollution from land-based sources and “routine”operations of ships (ballast water, bilge slops, and tankwashing) and oil rigs (seepage, oil-based muds usedfor drilling) account for most of the remainder.

Much of the oil discharged into the ocean accumu-lates in shallow benthic sediments and the intertidalzone where it can foul shorelines; cause mass mortal-ities (marine mammals and seabirds) and habitat loss(destruction of mangrove forests and sea grass beds);contaminate living marine resources (filter feedingbivalves in particular); inhibit growth; alter feedingbehaviour; and lower reproductive success (Hinrich-sen, 1998; National Safety Council, 1998). Light oilssuch as naphtha and gasoline are especially toxic tomarine life and people who consume contaminatedfish and shellfish.


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2.5 THE COASTAL OCEAN AND HUMAN

HEALTH

Four categories of contaminants directly are risks tohuman health: (1) naturally occurring biotoxins pro-duced by marine organisms; (2) indigenous bacteria(3) non-indigenous viruses and bacteria; and (4)chemicals contaminants (metals, hydrocarbons,POPs, radionuclides). Consumption of contaminatedseafood is the primary route of human exposure, butillness also occurs through direct exposure to con-taminated seawater (e.g. bathing) and inhalation ofaerosols. The distributions of and human exposure towaterborne contaminants depend on interactionsbetween human activities (e.g., sewage discharge,

swimming, seafood consumption), ocean circulation,the growth and distributions of marine organism, andthe weather (NRC, 1999b).This reality underscoresthe importance of developing an integrated approachto monitoring and controlling public health risks inthe coastal zone that encompasses the effects of oceanprocesses on the distribution and abundance ofhuman pathogens and toxic agents (IOC, 2001).

2.5.1 Marine Vectored Disease

The cost of marine-vectored public health risk issubstantial. Globally, Shuval (2003) estimated thatexposure to pathogens by bathing in contaminatedseawater and consuming contaminated seafood


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Mediterranean SeaSome 600 million m-tons of petroleum products(20% of the world’s supply) are shipped into andthrough the Mediterranean Sea every year. About 1million m-tons per year are released into the Sea. Ofthis, about 50% comes from routine ship operations.The remaining 50% comes from land-based sourcesvia surface runoff (Pastor, 1991; Pearce, 1995; Buck-ley, 1992).

North SeaOil and gas platforms account for 75% of the oil pol-lution in the North Sea (MacGarvin, 1990) via seep-age and the intentional release of oil-based drillingmuds (used to ease the passage of the drill and shaftthrough deep layers of bottom sediment and rock).About 2,000 km2 of seafloor in the United Kingdom’sportion of the N. Sea are contaminated with oil-basedmuds and cuttings, and biological effects on marineorganisms have been documented up to 5 km fromplatforms. Cod, saithe and haddock caught within thiszone contain elevated levels of hydrocarbons in theirtissues, and filter feeders such as mussels have 10 timesthe tissue burden of mussels from uncontaminatedareas (North Sea Task Force, 1993).

Gulf of AlaskaThe worst oil spill in U.S. history occurred in PrinceWilliam Sound in 1989 when the Exxon Valdez wentaground and spilled 257,000 barrels of crude oil pro-

ducing an oil slick 26,000 km2 and contaminating 250km of coastline (Lewis, 1989).About 5,000 sea otters,300,000 seabirds, and 300 bald eagles perished. Com-mercial fishing, valued at 130 million USD (salmon,halibut, herring, shellfish), crashed completely andeffects on shallow water and intertidal plant and ani-mal communities are expected to be long-lasting(Steiner, 1995).

Gulf of MexicoThe world’s largest oil spill occurred in the Bay ofCampeche when the Ixtoc exploratory well blew outin June, 1979. Over the next 290 days (until the wellwas capped), 475,000 m-tons of oil were released intothe Gulf ’s waters. Hundreds of oil-soaked crustaceanswere washed up on gulf beaches, but the full extent ofthe ecological disaster was not assessed (Henrichsen,1981).

Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf)At the end of the 1991 Gulf War, the valves of Kuwait’sSea Island storage facility were opened sending 4 – 8million barrels of oil into the Gulf, creating an oil slick3,000 km2 in area and contaminating 560 km of shore-line in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (including all man-grove forests and 90% of intertidal marshes). A massmortality of seabirds (about 30,000 cormorants andterns) was documented and damage to the Saudicoastline was estimated to be on the order of 700 mil-lion USD (UNEP, 1992a, b).

BOX 2.2. OIL POLLUTION OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT

resulted in losses of 8.8 billion USD/year during the1990s. Much of this can be attributed to the dis-charge of untreated sewage. Inputs of untreatedsewage are not only a major cause of coastal eutroph-ication, they are a major source of human pathogensthat increase human health risks associated withswimming and the consumption of seafood fromcontaminated environments. Consequently, sewagetreatment has been a high priority in most developedcountries where municipal wastewater treatment isprovided for 60% to 90% of the population (WRI,1998). However, in the vast majority of developingcountries, sewage treatment prior to discharge intocoastal waters is much less common. In fact, the pro-portion of populations served by treatment facilitiesin developing countries has decreased over the lastthree decades as increases in treatment have not beenable to keep pace with population growth.As recent-ly as 1975, sewage treatment was provided for morethan 70% of the urban population living in develop-ing countries (GESAMP, 2001b).Today, that numberis less than 50%.When both urban and rural popula-tions are included, it is estimated that sewage treat-ment is not provided for nearly 70% of the glob-al population (UNEP/GPA, 2000). Improvementsin sewage treatment and coastal ecosystem manage-ment would reduce this loss by a substantial percent-age. Although such estimates are rough, they illus-trate the potential socio-economic benefits of anintegrated ocean observing system.

Seafood consumption accounts for 11%, 20% and70% of food-borne diseases in the U.S.,Australia andJapan, respectively (Eyles, 1986; NAS, 1999).A recentreview of the reported outbreaks of food-borne dis-ease in the U.S. concluded that seafood consumptionis the major source of food-borne disease in general(CSPI, 2002). Preliminary estimates of the cost ofconsuming raw or lightly steamed shellfish from con-taminated waters (sewage, marine biotoxins) suggestthat economic losses are on the order of 16 billionUSD annually (Shuval, 2003).

The number of marine-beach bathing days has beenestimated (for both international and domesticcoastal tourists) to be about 1.7 billion per year (Shu-val, 2003).A visit to the beach is probably the singlemost direct and visceral contact most people havewith the coastal ocean. Its value to an individualclearly includes and transcends its economic value.

Shuval (2003) estimated that the excess risk of suf-fering from gastroenteritis, respiratory, and eye diseaseis greater than 200 million cases per year globallywith economic losses on the order of 1.5 billionUSD per year.Although these are rough estimates, itis clear that quantitative and comprehensive treat-ment of socio-economic costs and benefits requiremore efficient and sustained observations to establishtrends, to implement cost-effective controls, and toevaluate the efficacy of such controls.

2.5.2 Harmful Algal Events

Harmful algal events can impose significant impactsboth on the health of humans and on coastal flora andfauna. Toxic events caused by microalgae and otherprotozoans are having negative socio-economicimpacts on a global scale. Socio-economic costs associ-ated with harmful algal events include the closure ofshellfish beds, seafood contamination and health risks,and declines in tourism. Examples include the follow-ing (GEOHAB, 1998):

• During 1987-1993, the estimated cost to the U.S.was over 35 million USD per year. When eco-nomic multipliers are taken into account, the esti-mated cost increases to over 100 million USD peryear.

• In Japan, the average economic loss to the aqua-culture industry caused by noxious blooms isabout 1 billion yen per year due to both massmortalities and contamination of shellfish withPSP and DSP toxins. Efforts to decrease nitrogenand phosphorus in water and sediments have ledto a decrease in frequency of mass mortalities andcontamination.

• In Mexico,45% of the environmental emergenciesreported in 1996 were associated with toxic algalblooms. Toxin analysis revealed levels well abovestandards of the World Health Organization, andeconomic losses were substantial due to seizure ofmolluscs from the market and hospitalisation.

• Since the first record of a toxic dinoflagellatebloom in 1983, over 2000 PSP poisoning cases inthe Philippines have caused 115 deaths with eco-nomic losses of 10 million Philippine Pesos foreach PSP event.

Extrapolation of these experiences to the more than50 countries that experience significant harmful algal


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events suggests that the socio-economic impact ofthese events is significant.

2.6 HARVESTING LIVING MARINE

RESOURCES

Living marine resources have sustained human cul-tures for millennia as an essential source of proteinand a cornerstone of maritime commerce and trade.The fishery resources of the sea were long thought tobe inexhaustible. However, increasing fish harvestshave resulted in declines in many previously abun-dant fish and shellfish populations, and it is clear thathuman consumption is outstripping the productioncapacity of the world’s wild fisheries (e.g., Pauly etal., 1998). With widespread over-capitalization andassociated declines in catch per unit effort, the eco-logical, economic, and social consequences of over-exploitation have become increasingly manifest. Achange in how fisheries are managed is clearly need-ed. Two attributes of the system are particularlyimportant in terms of developing new managementstrategies for sustaining marine fisheries. First,seafood markets have become internationally linkedmaking clear the need to better integrate manage-ment efforts globally. Second, there is a clear need forthe implementation of ecosystem-based fishery man-agement practices, with effective enforcement of reg-ulations, limits, and the establishment of marine pro-tected areas (Pauly et al, 2002).

The last fifteen years has been witness to majorchanges in the global seafood industry (FAO, 2000).About 47% of current capture fisheries characterizedas fully exploited and are at or near the estimated

maximum sustainable production potential. Nearly28% of current capture fisheries are characterized asoverexploited, depleted, or recovering from depletionwhile 25% are classified as under-exploited or mod-erately exploited As the demand for fish-protein hasincreased and capture fisheries have become unsus-tainable under current fishing practices, aquaculturehas taken on an increasingly central role in meetingdemand, particularly in developing countries. At thesame time, international trade in seafood has becomemore diverse creating an exceptionally porous inter-national market.

Of particular note is the period 1984-1994 whenmajor changes in the global structure of the industryoccurred.During this decade seafood production (cap-ture fisheries and aquaculture) increased from 89 mil-lion tons to 120 million tons. Capture fisheriesincreased by only 17% during this period and have lev-elled off in recent years. In contrast, aquaculture pro-duction expanded by 170% accounting for 60% of thetotal 31 million ton increase during the decade (FAO,2000). Aquaculture currently accounts for 30% ofseafood consumption worldwide (FAO, 2000). Indeveloped countries, aquaculture production increasedby 25% (2.8 million tons in 1984 to 3.5 million tons in1994) while capture fishery landings declined by 26%(42 million tons in 1984 to 31 million tons in 1994). Incontrast, the production of both capture fisheries andaquaculture increased in developing countries by 34%and 68% respectively (FAO, 2000).These trends towarda global, interdependent harvest of capture and aqua-culture fisheries highlight the need to establish a glob-al strategy to understand the interplay between marketforces and changes in coastal ecosystems.


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3.1 THE GLOBAL COASTAL NETWORK

This Design Plan for the coastal module considersmany factors.These include (1) the need to address abroad diversity of phenomena encompassed by the sixgoals (Chapter 1, Section 1.1); (2) the six goals of thecoastal module have data and information require-ments in common; (3) the phenomena of interest tendto be local expressions of larger scale forcings; (4)ecosystem theory posits that the phenomena of inter-est are related through a hierarchy of interactions; and(5) the kinds of ecosystems and resources that consti-tute the “coastal ocean”and priorities for detection andprediction differ among regions5 . In addition, thedesign of the coastal module must take into considera-tion the following:

• Most international agreements and conventionsthat target marine pollution and living marineresources are regional in scope (Prologue);

• National and regional bodies provide the mosteffective venue for identifying user groups andspecifying their data and information require-ments.

Thus, the design plan for the coastal module respectsregional differences and leaves the design and imple-mentation of regional observing systems to stake-holders in their respective regions.At the same time, tothe extent that the six goals of the coastal module ofGOOS have many data requirements in common, a

global network of observations provides economiesof scale that minimizes redundancy and allowsregional observing system to be more cost-effec-tive. To these ends, the coastal module includes bothglobal and regional scale components that link global,regional and local scales of variability through a hierar-chy of observations, data management and models.Such a linked hierarchy can best be established througha mechanism such as the GOOS Regional Forum thatallows national GOOS programmes and GOOSRegional Alliances (GRAs) to play significant roles in(1) the development of the global coastal network; (2)the establishment of common standards and protocolsfor measurements, data management, and analyses; (3)facillitates the transfer of technology and knowledge;and (4) the determination of priorities for capacitybuilding.

The global network measures and processes variablesthat are required by most regional systems (Figure 3.1).These are the common variables6 . Depending onnational and regional priorities, GOOS RegionalAlliances (GRAs) may increase the resolution at whichcommon variables are measured, supplement commonvariables with the measurement of additional variables,and provide data and information products that are tai-lored to the requirements of stakeholders in the respec-tive regions.Thus, GRAs both contribute to and ben-efit from the global network.

It must be emphasized that the global network willnot, by itself, provide all of the data and informa-tion required to detect and predict changes in orthe occurrence of many of the phenomena ofinterest (Table 1.1). There are categories of variablesthat are important globally, but the variables measuredand the time-space scales of measurement change from


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3. Conceptual Design

5 The scientific, scale-dependent definition of a region is the next larger scale thatmust be observed to understand the local scale of interest. Regions generally donot recognize national jurisdictions.Thus, understanding and predicting changesin the phenomena of interest requires international collaboration in most cases.6 A variable is defined as a property or rate that has a range of values and can bemeasured with known precision and accuracy (temperature, salinity, current speedand direction, chlorophyll-a concentration, etc.).

region to region. These include stock assessments forfisheries management; biologically structured habitats(coral reefs, seagrass species, intertidal marshes andmangrove forests); marine mammals, turtles and birds;harmful algae, and contaminants. Decisions on whatvariables to measure (e.g., species of fish to be targetedfor management purposes, species of chemical contam-inants), the time and space scales of measurements, andthe mix of observing techniques are best made bystakeholders in each region. Thus, the establishmentof regional observing systems will be critical todetecting and predicting most of the phenomena ofinterest in the public health, ecosystem health andliving marine resources categories.

The global network of coastal observations is thefocus of this design plan. In addition to economiesof scale and improved cost-effectiveness, the globalnetwork establishes, maintains, and improves theobservational, data management and modelling infra-structure that benefits national and regional observ-ing systems in several important ways:

• optimise data, information and technologyexchange;

• facilitate capacity building;• provide a network of reference stations and sites

(including “sentinel” stations that provideadvanced warnings of events and trends andenable adaptive monitoring for improved detec-tion and prediction);

• establish internationally accepted standards andprotocols for measurements, data disseminationand management;

• link the large scale network of observations forthe ocean-climate module to the local scales ofinterest in coastal ecosystems and provide infor-mation on open boundary conditions andatmospheric forcings; and

• provide the means for comparative ecosystemanalysis required to understand and predict vari-ability on local scales of interest.

The selection of a provisional set of common vari-ables for the global coastal network is described inChapter 4.

3.2 A MULTI-PURPOSE OBSERVING

SYSTEM

The problem of detecting and predicting the presentstate and changes in coastal environments has manyfacets, and comprehensive characterization of allchanges on a global scale is clearly not possible. How-ever, it is feasible to develop an inclusive and effectiveapproach for detecting and predicting the effects ofexternal forcings on many of the phenomena of inter-est (Table 1.1; Annex II). The importance of physicalprocesses in structuring the pelagic environment andscale-dependent linkages of ecological processes to thephysical environment (Chapter 1) suggest there is arelatively small set of variables that, if measuredwith sufficient resolution for extended periods oversufficiently large areas, will serve many needs fromforecasting the effects of tropical storms and harmfulalgal events on short time scales (hours to days) to pre-dicting the environmental consequences of humanactivities and climate change on longer time scales(years to decades).These are the “common” variables.

The design and phased implementation of the coastalmodule will be guided by the following considera-tions (Figure 3.2):


52

Figure 3.1. Schematic relationship between the global net-work and GOOS Regional Alliances (GRAs). Solid verticallines represent the 14 common variables that would bemeasured and processed as part of the global network(Chapter 4). Dashed lines represent regional enhancementsby GRAs (discs), such as sea ice in polar regions, or coralcharacteristics in the tropics. Geographic boundaries ofregional systems will not be fixed in space; they may over-lap; and they will be determined by the time and space scalesof the phenomena of interest that are high priorities in eachregion.

(1) The data requirements for improved climateprediction and coastal marine services are, forthe most part, common to all of the themes tobe addressed by the coastal module. Safe andefficient coastal marine operations and themitigation of natural hazards require accuratenowcasts and timely forecasts of storms andcoastal flooding; of coastal current-, wave-, andice-fields; and of water depth, temperature andvisibility. The set of variables that must bemeasured and assimilated in near real timeinclude barometric pressure, surface wind vec-tors, air and water temperature, sea level,stream flows, surface currents and waves, andice extent. The use of models in supportingforecasts for coastal marine operations by gov-ernment agencies and commercial companiesis discussed in Section 5.2.1.

(2) In addition to these variables, minimizing pub-lic health risks and protecting and restoringcoastal ecosystems require timely data on envi-ronmental variables needed to detect and pre-dict changes habitats and in biological, chemi-cal and geological properties and processes,e.g., distributions of habitat types, concentra-tions of nutrients, suspended sediments, con-taminants, biotoxins and pathogens; attenua-tion of visible light; biomass, abundance andspecies composition of plants and animals; andhabitat type and extent. Mitigating the effectsof natural hazards and reducing public healthrisks also requires a predictive understanding ofthe effects of habitat loss and modification(barrier islands, tidal wetlands, sea grass beds,etc.) on the susceptibility of coastal ecosystemsand human populations to them.

(3) In addition to data on the state of marineecosystem, the demands of protecting livingmarine resources and managing harvests (ofwild and farmed stocks) in an ecosystem con-text require timely information on population(stock) abundance, distribution, age- (size)structure, fecundity, recruitment rates, migra-tory patterns, and mortality rates (includingcatch statistics).

As discussed in Chapter 7, Figure 3.2 provides a con-ceptual framework for the phased implementation ofthe coastal module recognizing that (1) all of themajor goals can and must be addressed from thebeginning and (2) current operational capabilitiesfrom sensors to models dictate initial emphasis onmarine services, climate prediction, and naturalhazards.Thus, the system will be designed to evolveand incorporate biological and chemical variables asnew technologies, knowledge and operational mod-els are developed.

3.3 ELEMENTS OF AN END-TO-END

OBSERVING SYSTEM

Both detection and prediction depend on the devel-opment of an integrated and sustained observing sys-tem that effectively links measurements to data man-agement and analysis for more timely access to dataand delivery of environmental information (Nowlinet al., 1996, 2001; Malone and Cole, 2000).The sys-

Biodiversity &LMRs

Status ofEcosystems


53

MarineServices

R&

D R

equi

rem

ents

Degree of Difficulty, Development Time

Figure 3.2. Time-dependent development of a fully inte-grated observing system. Predictions of most of the phenom-ena of interest require the same physical and meteorologicaldata acquired for effective marine services and forecastingnatural hazards. Those elements of the observing systemrequired for improved marine services and forecasts of natu-ral hazards are most developed (including the required oper-ational models) while those required for ecosystem-basedmanagement of living resources are least developed. Givencurrent capabilities and the importance of physical processesto the phenomena of interest in the ecosystem health and liv-ing marine resources categories, initial development of theglobal system will target the measurement and processing ofphysical variables and those biological and chemical vari-ables that can be measured routinely and for which productscan be clearly defined. As feasible, non-physical variablesshould be incorporated now. As technologies and proceduresfor rapid measurement and analysis of additional biologicaland chemical properties are developed, they will be incorpo-rated into the system.

tem must be integrated to provide multi-disciplinary(physical, chemical and biological) data and informa-tion to many user groups. Linking user needs tomeasurements to form an end-to-end, user-drivensystem requires a managed, two-way flow of data andinformation among three essential subsystems (Fig-ure 3.3):

• The observing subsystem (networks of plat-forms, sensors, sampling devices, and measure-ment techniques) to measure the required vari-ables on the required time and space scales;

• The communications network (data dissemina-tion and access) and data management subsystem(telemetry, protocols and standards for qualityassurance and control, data dissemination andexchange, archival, user access); and

• The data assimilation, analysis and modellingsubsystem.

The observing subsystem for the global coastal networkis described in more detail in Chapter 4. It consists ofthe global infrastructure required to measure thecommon variables and transmit data to the commu-nications network and data management subsystem.The infrastructure consists of the mix of platforms,samplers, and sensors required to measure the com-mon variables with sufficient spatial and temporalresolution to capture important scales of variability infour dimensions. This will require the synthesis ofdata from remote sensing and in situ measurementsinvolving various combinations of six categories ofmonitoring elements: (1) a network of coastal labo-ratories; (2) the global network of coastal tide gauges(GLOSS); (3) fixed platforms, moorings, drifters andunderwater vehicles; (4) research and survey vessels,ships of opportunity (SOOP) and voluntary observ-ing ships (VOS, SeaKeepers); (5) remote sensing fromsatellites and aircraft; and (6) remote sensing fromland-based platforms. Many of these observing tech-nologies are already deployed to some extent, and aglobal approach is needed to obtain the necessaryintegration.

Data communications and management link measure-ments to applications (Chapter 6).The six monitor-ing elements must be linked from the beginning byan integrated data management structure.The objec-

tive is to develop a system for both real-time anddelayed mode data that allows users to exploit multi-ple data sets and data products from disparate sources

in a timely fashion.The development of this compo-nent of the system should be the highest priority forimplementation.

Data assimilation and modelling are critical compo-nents of the observing system (Chapter 5). Real-timedata from remote and in situ sensors will be particu-larly valuable in that data telemetered from thesesources can be analysed to (1) produce more accurateestimates of the distributions of state variables, (2)develop, test and validate models, and (3) initialiseand update models for improved forecasts of coastalenvironmental conditions and, ultimately, changes inthe phenomena of interest in the categories ofecosystem and public health and living marineresources.A variety of modelling approaches (statisti-cal, empirical, theoretical, numerical) will berequired.

Figure 3.3. The observing system consists of three subsys-tems the development of which is driven by user-require-ments, technical capabilities, and the sustainable investmentsin infrastructure (capitalization) and operations (including therequired technical expertise). Note that, depending on capa-bilities and needs, user groups may access data from any oneor all of the subsystems directly.

Analysis, Models, Data Requirements

Data Communications & Management

USER DRIVEN END-TO-END SYSTEM

User Groups/Applications, e.g. shiprouting, search and rescue, coastal

zone management

Observing Subsystem


54

4.1 THE COMMON VARIABLES

The global coastal system will measure and manage arelatively small set of common variables that arerequired by most regional observing systems todetect or predict changes in phenomena of maxi-mum interest to users (Table 1.1). This requires anobjective procedure for selecting the properties andprocesses (i.e., variables) that, when measured global-ly, best serve to describe the present state and predictchanges in the coastal ocean. Consistent with theGOOS Design Principles (IOC, 1998b), the variablesmust be reported in a timely fashion (real time ordelayed mode as required) and suitable for measure-ment in a global system of sustained, routine, andreliably calibrated observations.

Many types of variables merit consideration forinclusion in the Coastal Module (Annex IV). Someare already measured routinely in many parts of theworld; others are recognized as being important fordescribing or predicting dynamic processes or signif-icant trends, but are not measured systematically incoastal environments; and still others are measuredmore for research than for routine operations. Allshould be considered for inclusion, either as commonvariables for the global coastal system or in regionalsystems operated by GRAs. An important task is todevelop a procedure for rationalizing a long list ofmeasurable properties and processes into a small setof common variables to be measured globally. Thismust be guided by the need to detect and predict, ina global context, the state of coastal marine systemsand changes that occur in them.

Comprehensive characterization of all changes on aglobal scale is not possible. However, it is feasible to

develop an inclusive and effective approach to char-acterizing the effects of external forcings on phe-nomena of primary interest to users. The processbegins with a ranking procedure, followed by areview of results, then practical evaluation.

4.2 SELECTING THE COMMON VARIABLES

The common variables have been selected using asystematic process based on an objective procedurethat addresses the needs of users, followed by a con-sensus-based review derived from the expertise andexperience of a broad range of scientists. The goal isto identify the minimum number of variables thatmust be measured to detect and predict changesthat are important to the maximum number ofuser groups. This was accomplished by identifyinguser groups, phenomena of interest, predictive models, andvariables to detect or predict change (Table 4.1). Then,variables were ranked according to the number ofphenomena they can help to detect or predict. Toemphasize the importance of users, each phenome-non was weighted by the number of user groupsinterested in it.The procedure is described in detailin Annex IV.

It is important to note that, although the process itselfis objective, the results are subjective to the extentthat the selection of user groups, phenomena ofinterest, predictive models and candidate variablesinfluences the outcome. As described in Annex IV,care was taken to ensure that the lists were represen-tative if not comprehensive. In particular, the list ofuser groups was intended to be a reasonable and bal-anced sampling of the spectrum of user groups thatare likely to benefit from the Coastal Module; lists ofphenomena and models were based on Table 1.1 and


55

4.The Initial Subsystem for Coastal Observations

models described in Chapter 5 (which were likewiseselected to be representative). Also, many variableswere exempted from the process for selecting com-mon variables, either because they will be measured

as part of other global observing systems or becausethey require regional approaches and will be consid-ered in the design of national and regional observingsystems (Section 3.1, Fig 3.1., and Box 4.1).


56

Many variables that will be measured as part of theglobal coastal system were not considered in theselection of common variables for one of two rea-sons: (1) they are or will be measured as part ofother global observing systems, or (2) the variableis better considered regionally, either because it isnot global in extent or because the measurementdepends on geographic location. GOOS RegionalAlliances publish information on locally importantvariables and sources of data and data products.

Some observing system variables will be measuredby other observing systems, but not necessarily onthe scales required by the global coastal system orregional systems. They include meteorologicalvariables (GCOS, OOPC), pCO2 (OOPC/GCOS); surface and groundwater transports ofwater, nutrients, sediments and contaminants(GTOS) and remotely sensed properties of surfacewaters, including ocean colour (CEOS andIGOS). For many of the same reasons that theywere included in their respective observing sys-tems, they are also needed to describe and predictchange in coastal environments. Observations ofthese variables are thus essential to the CoastalModule of GOOS, and these shared variables willbe included in the design of the global coastal sys-tem. The COOP, working in collaboration withGRAs, must specify observing requirements (spa-tial and temporal resolution, precision and accura-cy) for coastal ecosystems. For example, the IGOSOcean Theme (2000) describes current remotesensing capabilities (research and operational) andrequirements for the global ocean (open ocean

case 1 waters for the most part).The next step is toextend this analysis into the coastal environment(shallow, closer to the land margin, higher fre-quency variability — case 2 waters for the mostpart) and to specify requirements for in situ meas-urements for both validation of remotely senseddata products and the detection of changes in fourdimensions. These issues will be addressed in theCOOP implementation plan.

Variables to be considered by GOOS RegionalAlliances (GRAs)

Many variables are demonstrably important fordetecting and predicting change in coastal systems,but they are not appropriate for global implemen-tation.They are:

• Variables of regional significance that are notglobal in extent (e.g., sea ice);

• Categories of variables that would be definedor measured differently depending on geo-graphic location (e.g., chemical contaminationincluding oil spills, extent of biologicallystructured habitat; including coral reefs, oysterreefs, mangrove forests, sea grass beds, and kelpbeds).

Although these categories of variables were notconsidered for the global coastal system (Table4.2), they are essential to describing current stateand predicting changes in coastal regions, and it isexpected that they will be considered for imple-mentation by GRAs.

BOX 4.1.VARIABLES MEASURED AS PART OF OTHER INTEGRATED GLOBAL

OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND SHARED BY THE COASTAL MODULE


57

Shipping

Marine energy and mineralextraction

Insurance and re-insurance

Coastal engineers

Fishers (commercial, recre-ational, artisanal)

Agriculture

Aquaculture

Hotel - restaurant industry

Consulting companies

Fisheries management

Search and rescue

Port authorities and services

Weather services

Government agencies responsi-ble for environmental regulation(pollution issues)

Freshwatermanagement/damming

Public health authorities

National security (includingnavies)

Wastewater management

Integrated coastal management

Emergency response agencies

Tourism, Ecotourism

Conservation groups (includingenvironmental NGOs)

Consumers of seafood

Recreational swimming

Recreational boating

News media

Educators

Scientific community

Charting, navigational services

Sea state, forces on structures

Coastal flooding

Surface currents

Rising sea level

Changes in shoreline and shal-low water bathymetry

Chemical contamination ofseafood

Human pathogens in water andshellfish

Habitat modification and loss

Eutrophication / oxygen deple-tion

Changes in species diversity

Biological responses to contam-inants (pollution)

Harmful algal events

Invasive species

Water clarity

Disease and mass mortalities inmarine organisms

Chemical contamination of theenvironment (includes oil spills)

Harvest of capture fisheries

Aquaculture harvest

Abundance of exploitable livingmarine resources

Storm surges

Waves

Currents

Coastal erosion, sediment transport

Risk assessment: seafood consumption

Risk assessment: direct contact

Chemical contamination ofseafood

Habitat modification / loss

HABs - population dynamics

Anoxia / hypoxia

Invasive species

Pollution effects - population

Water quality model

Capture fishery production /sustainability

Aquaculture production / sustainability - finfish

Aquaculture production / sus-tainability - shellfish

Sequential population analysis

Community dynamics

Ecosystem dynamics

Oil slick transport and dispersal

Attenuation of solar radiation

Changes in bathymetry

Benthic biomass

Benthic species diversity

Biological oxygen demand

Neutral red assay

Cytochrome p450 (biomarker: oil)

Cholinesterase (pesticides)

Metallothionein (trace metals)

Currents

Dissolved inorganic nutrients (N, P,Si)

Dissolved oxygen

Eh in sediment

Faecal indicators

Fisheries: Landings and effort

Nekton biomass

Incident solar radiation

Nekton species diversity

Particulate organic C & N

pH

Phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll)

Phytoplankton species diversity >20 µm

Primary production

Salinity

Sea level

Sediment grain size, organic content

Changes in shoreline position

Surface waves

Total organic C and N

Total suspended solids

Water temperature

Zooplankton biomass

Zooplankton species diversity

Coloured dissolved organic matter -CDOM

Seabird abundance

Seabird diversity

USER GROUPS PHENOMENA OF INTEREST PREDICTIVE MODELS VARIABLES TO DETECT

STATE OR PREDICT CHANGE

Table 4.1. Lists used in the process for selecting common variables.

4.2.1 Results of the ranking exercise

A total of 36 variables were ranked (Table 4.2). Giventhe general importance of physical processes, it is notsurprising that the top six were physical variables.The second group of six was dominated by benthicvariables, and the third group of seven was dominat-

ed by chemical and biological properties of the watercolumn. It is noteworthy that benthic variables (sed-iment grain size and organic content, benthic bio-mass, Eh in sediments, and benthic species diversity)received high rankings, a result that reflects theimportance of benthic-pelagic coupling in coastalecosystems (Chapter 1).


58

1 Sea level

2 Water temperature

3 Currents

4 Changes in bathymetry

5 Salinity

6 Surface waves

7 Sediment grain size, organic content

8 Benthic biomass

9 Changes in shoreline position

10 Dissolved oxygen

11 Eh in sediment

12 Benthic species diversity

13 Dissolved inorganic nutrients (N, P, Si)

14 Phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll)

15 Phytoplankton species diversity > 20 µm

16 Attenuation of solar radiation

17 Nekton species diversity

18 Faecal indicators

19 Coloured dissolved organic matter – CDOM

20 Fisheries: Landings and effort

21 Primary production

22 Total organic C and N

23 Neutral red assay

24 Incident solar radiation

25 Total suspended solids

26 Cholinesterase (pesticides)

27 Cytochrome p450 (e.g., oil)

28 Metallothionein (trace metals)

29 Zooplankton biomass

30 Particulate organic C and N

31 Zooplankton species diversity

32 Biological oxygen demand

33 pH

34 Seabird diversity

35 Nekton biomass

36 Seabird abundance

RANK VARIABLE RANK VARIABLE

Table 4.2. Ranks of the common variables after the first complete ranking exercise. The variables are ranked according to thenumber of phenomena of interest that they can help to detect and predict, with each phenomenon weighted by the number of usergroups interested in it (see Annex IV). Final ranks are consistent with the better rank for detection or prediction.

The combined rankings in Table 4.2 provide a basisfor selecting the common variables, but they do notreveal exactly how many variables should be retainedin the final list. Breaks in the distributions of rankedscores for both detection and prediction guided thedecision to include the 14 top-ranked variables in apreliminary list of common variables (Annex IV).

4.3 REVISIONS BASED ON SCIENTIFIC

EXPERIENCE AND EXPERTISE

Results of the matrix process are the first step towardand a principal guide for identifying the commonvariables for the global coastal system. The next stepwas to review the preliminary list of 14 variables toensure that selection of common variables based on

the rankings was acceptable to all Panel membersbased on their expertise and experience.Variables wereretained if it was felt they could be measured with suf-ficient resolution to provide the information requiredto detect or predict changes in a timely fashion. Com-pelling reasons for adding variables to the list also wereconsidered. Reasons would include large benefit rela-tive to the cost for making the measurement and thedegree to which its measurement would increase thevalue of measurements already on the list.

Upon review, the decision was made to include fae-cal indicators (rank 19) and the attenuation of solarradiation (rank 16) and to drop benthic species diver-sity and sediment Eh.The rationale for making thesechanges are as follows:

• As documented in Chapter 2, the economicand public health impacts of contamination bysewage are severe. This contamination istracked by routine measurements of faecalindicators.The benefit of including faecal indi-cators in the list of common variables, and therelative ease and low cost of implementation,justifies inclusion of faecal indicators in the listof common variables.

• Observations of the attenuation of solar radia-tion reveal much more than the light availablefor water column or benthic photosynthesis —they reflect changes in the constituents of thewater column as influenced by eutrophicationand sediment load. Secchi depth, a simplemeasure of attenuation, has been measuredroutinely for many decades and is demonstra-bly useful for documenting change in coastalenvironments. Requirements for capacitybuilding are minimal and cost is almost noth-ing. In regions of the developing world influ-enced by changes in land use, this may be oneof the only quantitative measures of waterquality that could be made with adequate res-olution to document change. Comparisonwith more discriminating radiometric meas-ures of attenuation can be made routinely.Thus, the attenuation of solar radiation isincluded in the list of common variables.

• Although biological diversity is clearly animportant parameter of ecosystem health andthe carrying capacity of ecosystems for livingresources, the identification and enumerationof species globally is a major challenge: targetspecies groups will vary from region to regionand the methods and expertise required arenot suitable at this time for incorporation intoa global system of routine observations usingtime-tested, standard techniques.

• The routine measurement of sediment Eh in aglobal system may be problematic due to prob-lems with instrument reliability and the needfor vertically resolved measurements.This, andthe fact that the measurement is somewhatredundant with dissolved oxygen, led to thedecision to drop Eh from the list of commonvariables, with the recognition that this andother variables may be added to the system astechnology advances.

The Panel also decided to list sediment grain sizeand organic content as two separate variables,bringing the number of recommended commonvariables to 15 (Table 4.3; Annex IV). This list ofvariables for the global coastal system is supple-mented by the shared variables from other observ-ing systems (Box 4.1;Table 4.3).


59

This procedure for selecting common variables isonly a first step in deciding which measurementswill be included in the global coastal system.Clearly, the full list of common variables will emergeas the coastal module develops over time. The pur-pose of this exercise was to determine at the outsetthe most useful variables to observe without consid-ering in detail the methods of measurement, theirfeasibility, or their impact on the ability to detectpresent state or predict changes in a timely fashion.These issues will be addressed in the implementationplan.

4.4 EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL

COMMON VARIABLES

The procedure for identifying common variables didnot address explicitly the requirements to character-ize changes in coastal ecosystems by assessingexchanges at boundaries and internal dynamics(Chapter 1, Figure 1.1), nor was it intended to pro-

vide the capability for comprehensive descriptions ofthe status or changes in ecosystem characteristics.This is because the global coastal system is but oneelement of the Coastal Module, designed to con-tribute to and benefit from the regional elements. Itis thus important to examine the list of common andshared variables, along with variables not included inthe list, to determine what aspects of ecosystemchange the global coastal system could detect andpredict, and what must be provided by regional ele-ments. This evaluation should reveal what theglobal coastal system can provide to regional andnational elements, and it should highlight theobservations that must be made by regional ele-ments in order to characterize coastal ecosystemseffectively.

4.4.1 Classification of Variables

Following a classification based on Figure 1.1, vari-ables are listed in Table 4.4 according to the environ-


60

PHYSICAL

Sea levelTemperatureSalinityCurrentsSurface wavesBathymetryShoreline positionSediment grain sizeAttenuation of solar radiation

CHEMICAL

Sediment organic contentDissolved inorganic nitrogen, phos-phorus, siliconDissolved oxygen

BIOLOGICAL

Benthic biomassPhytoplankton biomassFaecal indicators

Table 4.3. Common variables recommended by the Panel to be measured as part of the global coastal system (Annex IV).Additional variables, shared with other observing systems, are also recommended for inclusion in the global coastal system.

MeteorologicalVariables(GCOS, OOPC)

Air temperatureVector windsHumidityWet and dry precipitationIncident solar radiation

Chemical Variable(Atmosphere / Ocean)(OOPC/GCOS)

pCO2

Remotely Sensed Variablesat the Sea Surface(CEOS, IGOS)

TemperatureSalinityElevation (currents)Roughness (winds)Ocean colour(chlorophyll, attenuation of solarradiation)

Land MarginVariables(GTOS)

Surface and GroundwaterTransports of: • Water• Nutrients• Sediments• Contaminants

Variables Measured as Part of Other Integrated Global Observing Systems and Recommended to be Shared by the Coastal Module

mental context of each measurement. An additionaland no less important category is added, biotic assess-ments.This category includes a broad range of obser-vations that generally require direct manipulation ortaxonomic identification of organisms. These taxo-nomic, physiological and biochemical characteristics oforganisms and communities reflect environmentalforcings and integrate responses over ecologically rele-vant scales.They are also some of the most direct meas-ures of living marine resources and environmentalimpacts of contaminants and environmental forcings,exactly what the Coastal Module is designed to detectand predict. The list of biotic assessments would bemuch longer if it included more fisheries data and vari-ables to be considered by GOOS Regional Alliances.

It can be concluded from examination of the classi-fied variables that sustained and systematic measure-

ment and analysis of the 15 common variables,together with those shared with other global observ-ing systems, will provide descriptions of externaldrivers (forcings), exchanges across major boundaries,and the internal dynamics of coastal systems, therebydetecting and predicting change, mostly in the phys-ical and chemical environment and lower trophiclevels, all of which exert bottom-up control onecosystems. It is also very clear that biotic processesand the status of higher trophic levels will not becharacterized as part of the global coastal net-work. This highlights the importance of measuringand processing biological and chemical variables byGOOS Regional Alliances that are then analysed inthe context of global system data and socio-econom-ic and public health indicators to gain an integratedview of the status of and changes in coastal ecosys-tems.


61

The initial list of variables for the global coastal sys-tem will be updated in the implementation planthrough an impact versus feasibility (I-F) analysis ofpotential techniques for each variable. Impact is asubjective assessment of the relative value of the tech-nique for making quality measurements of the vari-able in question with adequate resolution on therequired time-space scales. Feasibility is an appraisalof the degree to which observational techniques canbe used in a routine, sustained and cost-effective fash-ion, i.e., the extent to which they are operational. For

many common variables, more than one measure-ment technique will be identified depending onregional capacities and the applications for which thevariable is used. Once the I-F analysis is completedfor each variable, techniques will be categorized inone of the following four categories: suitable forincorporating into the observing system now (oper-ational), suitable for pre-operational testing, ready forevaluating as part of a pilot project, or requires addi-tional research and development (Section 7.3).Whendifferent measurement systems are employed, compa-


62

Air-Sea

Water Columnand Shelf-Ocean

Sea levelWater temperatureCurrentsSalinitySurface waves

Shared with other systems:Meteorological variables: (air tempera-ture, vector winds, humidity, wet and dryprecipitation, incident solar radiation)pCO2

Remotely sensed variables: (temperature,salinity, currents, winds, ocean colour)

Water temperatureCurrentsSalinityDissolved oxygenDissolved inorganic nutrientsPhytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll)Attenuation of solar radiationFaecal indicatorsColoured dissolved organic matterPrimary productionTotal organic C and NTotal suspended solidsZooplankton biomass Particulate organic C and NBiological oxygen demandpHNekton biomass

Sea levelChanges in shoreline positionFaecal indicators

Shared with other systems:Surface and groundwater transports of water,nutrients, sediments and contaminants(including faecal indicators)

Changes in bathymetrySediment grain sizeSediment organic contentBenthic biomassEh in sediment

Benthic species diversityPhytoplankton species diversity (> 20 µm)Nekton species diversityFisheries landings and effort Neutral red assayCholinesterase assay(pesticides)Cytochrome p450 (e.g., oil)Metallothionein (trace metals)Zooplankton species diversitySeabird diversity Nekton biomassSeabird abundance

Land-Sea

Benthic

Biotic Assessments

CONTEXT VARIABLES CONTEXT VARIABLES

Table 4.4. Variables organized into the classification scheme consistent with Figure 1.1, with the addition of biotic assess-ments (observations that generally require direct manipulation or taxonomic identification of organisms). The recommendedcommon variables are in bold, as well as those recommended for sharing with other global observing systems (greater resolu-tion may be required for the global coastal system). Many variables are not exclusive to one category.

rability of measurements must be assured. The sameI-F analysis will be applied to the variables measuredas part of other integrated global observing systemsand recommended to be shared by the Coastal Mod-ule. Additional common variables may be added asthey are needed and routine measurements becomefeasible.

4.5 ELEMENTS OF THE OBSERVING

SYSTEM

Measurements from both the global and regionalobservations systems provide data from three generalsources: discrete sampling followed by measurements(e.g., samples of water, sediments, or organisms arecollected and taken to a laboratory where measure-ments are made); in situ sensing (the sensor is in theenvironment where the measurement is made); andremote sensing (from satellites, aircraft, and land-based platforms). Discrete sampling and in situ meas-urements such as profiles of salinity and temperaturemay be made from docks, small boats, ships, and fixedplatforms. Autonomous in situ measurements can bemade from fixed platforms, drifters, gliders,autonomous vehicles, and remotely operated vehi-cles. Remote sensing provides context for in situmeasurements, and combination of remote and in situmeasurements are required for detecting and predict-ing changes in 4-dimensions. In situ sensing also pro-vides critical ground-truth information for remotesensors. Coastal observatories for in situ and remotesensing are expected to become important compo-nents of the observing subsystem as the technologiesfor these platforms and associated sensors develop(Glenn et al., 2000b).

The elements of the global and regional observingsystems must be linked to form an integrated systemof observations.These elements include: (1) networkfor coastal observations; (2) the global network ofcoastal tide gauges; (3) fixed platforms, moorings,drifters, and underwater vehicles; (4) research andsurvey vessels, SOOP and VOS; (5) remote sensingfrom satellites and aircraft; and (6) remote sensingfrom land-based platforms.

4.5.1 Network for Coastal Observations

The coastal network links local communities, aca-demic research laboratories, government laboratories

(operational and research laboratories), industries,environmental NGOs and universities to record anddisseminate information on local changes in the con-text of regional and global scales of variability. It isanticipated that the network will provide the infra-structure for capacity building and the opportunityfor all interested countries to contribute and partici-pate in a meaningful way. It has been designed tointerface directly with the data flows and manage-ment scheme but it should be realized that imple-menting the coastal module on a global scale will bea major challenge.

The proposed structure of the Network for CoastalObservations involves three levels of participationwith two-way flows of data and information:

(1) Level 1 would involve concerned citizens, envi-ronmental groups, NGOs, high schools and sim-ilar organizations. These participants wouldrequire the support and assistance from Region-al GOOS Alliances. Participants would need tobe trained and provided with the means (e.g.,instruments, supplies, kits) for sampling, makingmeasurements (in some cases), and recordingresults (data and meta data; see Section 7.4). Datawould be communicated (electronically or oth-erwise) to a level 2 participant capable of storingand transmitting data electronically. It is impor-tant that the principles of capacity building areapplied here.

(2) Level 2 would include institutions such as indus-tries, hydrographic services, coastal administra-tions, universities and navies that have theresources and expertise to routinely collect sam-ples, to measure the required variables (in somecases), and to store and transmit data in electron-ic formats in a timely fashion.Training and thedevelopment of common protocols for measure-ments, metadata, and data exchange will also beimportant at this level (see Section 7.3 and 7.4).Participants at this level directly or indirectlyinvolve the greatest diversity of user groups. Oneimportant potential advantage of involving theseorganizations would be inclusion of the vastamount of data that are collected routinely inthe near-shore region but are not generallyavailable outside the region (e.g. compliancemonitoring).


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(3) Level 3 would include operational governmentagencies with statutory responsibility for marineenvironmental management and safety, researchlaboratories,which may in some cases also be uni-versities and would function as regional hubs(which may also function as regional synthesis orapplication centres) providing general guidance,training and advice to level 1 and level 2 partici-pants. They will link schools, environmentalgroups, industry and operational agencies in agiven region. Hubs will be linked to form a glob-al network that may also function as the commu-nication network for the global system (Section6.3.2).They will have all of the capabilities of level1 and 2 participants, but with a broader spectrumof expertise and resources to design and imple-ment measurement programmes and to store andanalyse diverse data types from many sources.Theorganizations in Level 3 may also add to the net-work by (i) providing analytical services to level 1and level 2 providers; (ii) implementing standardsfor data quality; and (iii) providing an interdiscipli-nary or time-space context for more robust inter-pretations of data.

Coastal laboratories provide access to local marine andestuarine ecosystems, and they can be equipped withthe facilities to support many of the samplingapproaches of the observing system described above.Consequently, regional networks of coastal laborato-ries in some countries will address a broad range ofissues that are critical to the successful implementationof the Coastal Module.These include the following:

• Establish long-term time series observations to captureimportant high and low frequency variability - Mea-surements of many biological and chemical vari-ables in sustained time-series are feasible andcost-effective in ecosystems that are near coastallaboratories.These capabilities are critical to thesuccessful development of index sites (seebelow), coastal observatories, ocean colour algo-rithms for case 2 waters, calibration and mainte-nance of in situ sensors, and land-based remotesensing.There are also already a significant num-ber of established time-series stations taking avariety of physical, chemical and biologicalmeasurements. It is critical to the success ofGOOS that these stations become an integralpart of the Coastal Module.

• Support the development of “test beds” - The devel-opment of sensing and communications tech-nologies are critical to the evolution of a fullyimplemented, multidisciplinary observing sys-tem that includes the measurement of key bio-logical and chemical properties and real-timetelemetry of data for timely forecasts. The rela-tively easy access to coastal sites makes the coastan excellent area for testing technologies andmethodologies used in the wider GOOS effort.

• Promoting public awareness and support - Coastallaboratories often engage in public outreachactivities that can be used to raise communityawareness of marine environments, changesoccurring in them, and the benefits of oceanobservations.

Additionally, level 2 and 3 participants may providethe support base for coastal observatories and indexsites where variables are intensely monitored, newtechnologies are tested and experiments are conduct-ed on scales which allow the development of a pre-dictive understanding of the processes controllingecosystem change.The unique and critical aspects ofindex sites are as follows:

• Multiple variables and rate processes are measuredon the time and space scales required to determineand model the causes and consequences of envi-ronmental variability and change;

• Baseline or reference conditions are established asa means to resolve long-term change from short-term variability (e.g., the development of clima-tologies for biological and chemical variables);

• Procedures are developed to integrate diverse datafrom different sources collected on different timeand space scales to visualize change in four dimen-sions;

• Test sites are established to accelerate the develop-ment of new sensor technologies and dynamicmodels to test hypotheses and predict changes; and

• Technologies and models are transferred fromresearch to operational modes to improve thecapacity of the observing system to serve theneeds of a broader mix of users.

Index sites provide a critical link between large-scalesurvey and monitoring programmes and the basicresearch required to understand causal relationshipsand predict change in coastal waters. They may


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incorporate observatories or test beds. Some labora-tories running index sites may also function asregional synthesis or application centres, whereactivities such as the integration of remote sensinginformation into regional data sets are centred. Indexsites, such as those designated by LOICZ and coastalsites of the Long Term Ecosystem Research network(LTER), should be strategically located to determinehow external forcings (e.g., inputs from riverdrainage basins and ocean basin scale changes such asENSO events and the NAO and PDO) are expressedin coastal ecosystems.

4.5.2 The Global Network of Coastal Tide Gauges

The 1997 Implementation Plan for the Global SeaLevel Observing System (GLOSS) called for theestablishment of a global core network of approxi-mately 270 stations with a roughly even global dis-tribution and of which approximately two thirds arein operation.The plan also defined sets of gauges foraltimeter calibration, for the monitoring of long-term trends in sea level and ocean circulation. Theplan calls for data collection with delays of between1-12 months and recognizes the importance of theglobal network to the calibration of satellite meas-urements.

GLOSS has agreed in principle to measure select-ed common variables at gauged sea level sites.Theschedule for reporting data would have to be accel-erated.The most straightforward variables to mon-itor are air pressure, salinity and water temperature.Air pressure is particularly important in the analy-sis of sea level data because of the inverse relation-ship between air pressure and sea level, i.e., a 1 mbincrease in air pressure is associated with a 1 cmdecrease in sea level. (It should be noted that therehas been a reduction in air pressure measurementsby meteorological agencies for several years in thetropics, and the addition of the proposed new tidegauge sites might help to rectify this problem.) Insome cases it may be possible to equip GLOSS sta-tions with sensors not only for air pressure, salinityand temperature but also for wind, waves, currents,chlorophyll a, nutrient concentrations and opticalproperties. The advantages of such enhancementsare obvious, and the approach is consistent with theGOOS design philosophy of building on existinginfrastructure.

In addition to GLOSS there are a number of othergroups undertaking work on sea level that is relevantto the coastal module of GOOS. For example, theInternational GPS Service for Geodynamics (IGS) isbeginning to add continuous GPS to tens of tidegauges around the world. One goal is to define theabsolute vertical position of the tide gauges to with-in a few cm in order to calibrate and validate meas-urements of sea level by satellite-borne altimeters.Another goal is to measure the vertical rate of dis-placement of the tide gauges on time scales ofdecades. If accuracies of better than 1 mm/year overa 10-year period could be achieved it may be possi-ble to separate the effects of vertical crustal move-ment from oceanic effects and allow for better pre-dictions of sea level rise.

The GLOSS system provides the sea level data for theglobal COOP. In addition, there are other local tidegauges operated by national agencies which can pro-vide additional data within the structure of GRAs,sometimes with real time delivery of data and the useof models to forecast regional sea level patterns.

4.5.3 Fixed Platforms, Moorings, Drifters, and Underwater Vehicles

There have been significant improvements over thelast decade in the instrumentation for measuringwater properties from fixed platforms, moorings, ver-tical profilers, remotely operated vehicles (ROVs),autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV), surfaceautonomous vehicles, gliders and drifting buoys(Dickey et al., 1998, 2002; Glenn et al., 2000b).Moorings can now provide routine measurements ofmeteorological (wind, air pressure, temperature,humidity, incident solar radiation) and physical vari-ables (water temperature and salinity, currents). Sen-sors have also been developed for sustainedautonomous measurements of dissolved oxygen,nutrients, pH, and a variety of optical propertiesincluding fluorescence, turbidity, ocean colour andattenuation of solar radiation. Although many ofthese sensors are commercially available and havebeen deployed for extended periods, they are notgenerally operational in the sense of providing guar-anteed data streams during sustained, routine use incoastal water. Progress in this direction has beengood, however. There have also been developmentsin telemetry that allow users to communicate with


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remote platforms in coastal waters to download dataand change sampling strategy (e.g. Chavez et. al.,1999).

There are several benefits of enhancing the distribu-tion of instrumentation, fixed platforms, offshoremoored buoys and autonomous mobile sensor sys-tems.They include:

• More accurate predictions of extreme marineweather;

• Improved nowcasts and forecasts of wind and airpressure fields that can be used to drive hydro-dynamic models;

• Detection of transient events and subsurface fea-tures that would be missed by discrete samplingor remote sensing;

• More rigorous calibration and validation ofsatellite remote sensing (e.g. winds, surface tem-perature, currents, sea level, estimates of chloro-phyll from ocean colour) and continuity of dataon cloudy days;

• An expanded database of ocean variabilitywhich will improve our understanding of howthe coastal ocean works, including ecosystemdynamics, and accelerate the development andvalidation of predictive models.

One group of offshore platforms that could carryadditional sensors is the moored buoys and fixed sta-tions used by the World Weather Watch (WWW) tomonitor atmospheric variability over the ocean (pro-grammes of the IOC-WMO Data Buoy Coopera-tion Panel). Another set of offshore platforms is therigs used for hydrocarbon exploitation. Such plat-forms contribute to the WWW in many areas, andEuroGOOS has developed a monitoring networkbased on fixed structures in the North Sea.

Surface drifters are effective tools for tracking currentsin the open ocean and in coastal waters. Position isreported by satellite and the drifters can be equippedwith sensors for temperature, salinity, incident solarradiation and ocean colour, so they can be used totrack the dynamics of local features.The advantages ofdrifters include relatively low cost and easy deploy-ment. However, drifters are inherently uncontrollableand measurements are not easily verified after extend-ed deployments. Autonomous vehicles such as glidersoffer the advantages of both drifters (access to waters

away from fixed platforms or ships) and fixed plat-forms (opportunity for calibration and maintenance).They can measure many variables and show strongpotential for incorporation into measurement systemsfor the coastal module of GOOS.

Biofouling and corrosion affect the quality of meas-urements taken above and below the ocean surface.In addition to frequent maintenance, a few steps, suchas the use of copper, mechanical wipers and otheranti-fouling measures, can be taken to minimize theproblem.Vandalism has been recognized as a majorthreat to observational systems by the internationalcommunity. The problems of both vandalism andbiofouling may be solved to some extent through theuse of bottom mounted profiling packages that spenda significant amount of time below biologically activesurface layers.

4.5.4 Ships of Opportunity and Voluntary Observing Ships

Ships of Opportunity (e.g., SOOP) and VoluntaryObserving Ships (VOS) provide valuable oceano-graphic and meteorological data on a global scale.These ships make important contributions to theWorld Weather Watch and hence weather forecasting.The OOPC has included Ships of Opportunity andVoluntary Observing Ships as an important part oftheir observing strategy for the global ocean.

In coastal ecosystems, the use of ferries (e.g., “FerryBox” project of EuroGOOS), and privately ownedvessels operating in coastal waters (e.g., Seakeepers)making specific measurements are two examples ofship-based observation systems. These systems usecustom made measurement modules to collect datasuch as sea surface temperature, salinity, oxygen,nitrate, sound velocity, fluorescence, light attenuationand light scattering, redox levels, pH, coloured dis-solved organic material, turbidity, and chlorophyll.Assuming the problem of calibration of sensors canbe addressed, routine measurement of conditionsalong critical corridors, sounds and straits would beparticularly valuable to the Coastal Module.

4.5.5 Research Vessels and Repeat Surveys

There are many repeat surveys by research vessels, forexample, in the Northwest Atlantic, where standard-


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ized ecosystem surveys (for abundance, species compo-sition, size, age, maturity, diseases, and trophic linkagesof finfish and some shellfish; measures of primary pro-ductivity; zooplankton volume and species; and physi-cal variables) are made from research vessels for hun-dreds of representative stations covering thousands ofsquare kilometers, up to six times per year, with sometime series forty years long. Many other examples canbe found worldwide. Incorporating these types of datastreams as well as measurements from other vesselsincluding fishing industry vessels will increase the avail-ability and coverage of data to the Coastal Moduleconsiderably and will increase the ability of the CoastalModule to have biological data incorporated into theobserving system.The continuation of time-series andestablishment of new time-series are critically impor-tant to documenting changes in coastal environments.Research ships, albeit cost-intensive, will also in futuresupport considerably the Coastal Module with stan-dardized surveys on monitoring lines and grids.Theselevel 3 contributions also provide data on broader spaceand time-scales and interdisciplinary interpretation ofmonitoring variables.

There is also the potential to use industry vessels fromwater authorities, oil and gas exploration companies,and the fishing industry,which maintain lines of quasi-permanent stations on critical sections along whichhydrographic and biological variables are monitored.Underway sensing systems such as continuous plank-ton recorders (i.e., Sir Alister Hardy Foundation forOcean Science) could be installed on the vessels thatconduct these sections.The data from regular surveyscould be usefully combined with the underway meas-urements to provide estimates of integral fluxes ofquantities like mass and nutrients along the shelves aswell as early detection of regime shifts that affect thestructure and function of marine ecosystems. Suchfluxes, in combination with data from other sources,could be most useful in providing boundary condi-tions or limited area models of the shelf. Cross-shelftransects (“corridors”) will also be needed to deter-mine environmental trends and cross-shelf gradientsbetween land and the open ocean.

4.5.6 Remote Sensing from Land-based Platforms

High frequency radar systems using “ground waves”such as CODAR have been developed to estimate sur-face current and wave fields that are useful for a variety

of purposes including ship routing and near-shore nav-igation, search and rescue, fishing operations, the miti-gation of oil spills, and forecasts of harmful algal bloomtrajectories.These systems can achieve a dynamic rangeof 200 km or more from the shore line with a spatialresolution of order 0.5 km and near real-time datatelemetry (e.g., 20 minute delay time).The less devel-oped “sky wave” system potentially can have a range ofthousands of kilometres.

Land-based radiometers can be used to map surfacetemperature over a range of a few kilometres. Finally,video cameras with time-lapse capability also can beused to monitor variations in sea state averaged overseveral wave periods.This has allowed, for example, spa-tial patterns in beach morphology to be monitored andrelated to external forcing functions such as incidentwave energy.

4.5.7 Remote Sensing from Satellites and Aircraft

A suite of satellites and satellite technologies is avail-able for remote sensing of the marine environment.Active and passive sensors are able to detect visible,infrared, and microwave portions of the electromag-netic spectrum to measure four basic properties ofthe ocean: ocean colour, temperature, height androughness. Such measurements are used to observesurface distributions of common variables as follows:

• Ocean-colour sensors monitor the spectralproperties of water-leaving radiance in the visi-ble domain to describe the distributions of sev-eral properties in the surface layer of the ocean,including Chl a, the penetration of sunlight andthe concentration of suspended sediments(Annex V).

• Both infrared (IR) and microwave sensors areused to monitor sea surface temperature (SST).As for ocean-colour, infrared sensors cannot seethrough clouds. Passive microwave sensors canmeasure SST through clouds but with less accu-racy and spatial resolution.

• Microwave sensors can be used to detect sea sur-face height (ocean topography, altimetry), sur-face waves (altimeters and synthetic apertureradar, SAR), winds at the sea surface (ocean vec-tor winds, scatterometry) and sea ice (SAR).Microwave radiometry may also provide themeans to measure sea surface salinity.


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For references to sources of information on existingmarine remote programmes by various nationalspace agencies see CEOS Publications, IGOS"Ocean Theme", and EuroGOOS PublicationsNo.6 and 16.

The importance of remote sensing and the integra-tion of remote and in situ sensing for long-termobservations are well established for the open ocean(IOC, 1998a; www.igospartners.org). Extending andimproving (e.g., greater spatial and temporal resolu-tion) these capabilities for applications in near-shore,coastal waters is critical to the development of thecoastal module of GOOS.


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The term model is used here in the broadest sense. Itis taken to cover simple statistical relationships (e.g.rules of thumb, dose-response relationships, multipleand multivariate regression models), more sophisti-cated statistical constructs (e.g. state space models,neural networks, virtual population analyses, networkanalysis), dynamical models based on first principles(e.g. storm surge models, numerical ecosystem mod-els in both Lagrangian and Eulerian form) and, final-ly, coupled models of the biotic and abiotic compo-nents of the marine ecosystem (e.g. coupled atmos-phere-ocean-wave-sediment-biogeochemistry mod-els).

Modelling and the making of observations are com-plementary activities.The blending of time-depend-ent dynamical models and observations is becomingincreasingly important in oceanography and is usual-ly referred to as data assimilation. It is used to updatethe model’s state, parameters and forcing in a mannerthat is consistent with the observations. Models witha data assimilation capability have been developed forphysical conditions on continental shelves and in thedeep ocean, and specially designed programmes arebeing carried out to test their effectiveness (e.g.GODAE). Data assimilation is not restricted to phys-ical models; traditional nutrient-phytoplankton-zoo-plankton models also are developing the capacity touse data more effectively.

The goals of this chapter are to define the role ofmodels in the design and operation of the coastalobserving system (section 5.1), and provide a roughassessment of their predictive capabilities (section5.2). Data assimilation is discussed in section 5.3 andsome problems and opportunities for coastal model-ling are discussed in the final section.

5.1 THE ROLE OF MODELS

5.1.1 Estimating the State of the Marine Environment

The main value of models is in the estimation ofquantities that are not observed directly.As discussedbelow, models can be used to interpolate between,and extrapolate, observations that are sparsely distrib-uted in space or time.The more advanced interpola-tion-extrapolation methods use data assimilationtechniques to blend, in an optimal fashion, observa-tions and dynamical models. This can lead to high-resolution gridded reconstructions of conditions thatprevailed during earlier periods. Models can also beused to estimate the present and, more importantly,future states of the coastal ocean and its livingresources.The estimation of past, present and futurestates is generally referred to as hindcasting, nowcast-ing and forecasting, respectively7 .

Hindcasting generally refers to the reconstructionof historical conditions based on all available datafor a given period. It has many applications. One isthe reconstruction of past population sizes ofexploited fish species using information onobserved catches and some basic biology. Anotherapplication that is especially relevant to GOOS isthe development of ‘climatologies’ for specifiedperiods. The determination of the mean, secondand higher moments of variability are of funda-mental importance to environmental science andare required products for engineering design(Koblinsky and Smith, 2001). Climatologies are


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5. Combining Observations and Models

7 All three types of estimation procedure are described by the generic term "prediction" in this document. See Chapter 1, footnote 1.

also required for effective management of coastalresources and as a background against which tointerpret recent changes in marine ecosystems.Hindcasts from physical models can be used to syn-thesize scattered measurements of variables such aswater temperature, salinity, sea level, nutrients andradio-nuclides, and produce consistent estimates ofthe three dimensional state of coastal systems. Suchinformation can be used to interpret, for example,changes in the abundance of commercially impor-tant fish stocks, the frequency and magnitude ofharmful algal blooms, trends in the loss of coralreefs, and the spatial and temporal extent of bottomwater oxygen depletion. Nowcasting provides anestimate of the present state of coastal marineecosystems and living resources, using all informa-tion available up to the present time. For example,nowcasts are used to assess the current status ofexploited fish stocks, to ensure safe navigation in

shallow water and can be used to guide adaptivesampling of marine ecosystems based on real-timeestimates of current conditions. Forecasting thefuture state of the coastal marine ecosystem andliving resources is arguably the most importantapplication of models. For example, models havebeen used for many years to forecast storm surgesand wave spectra with a lead-time of hours to days.Models have also been used for decades in fisheriesscience to forecast abundance of commerciallyimportant fish stocks with lead times of years.Models can also be used to generate plausible cli-mate change ‘scenarios’, taking into account bothnatural variability and anthropogenic forcing. Theschematic for a generic nowcast-forecast system,based on a numerical ecosystem model of the glob-al coastal ocean, is shown in Figure 5.1.


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Atmospheric forcing by analyses Atmospheric forcing forecast

Assimilation of real time observations

Ocean FORECAST

Figure 5.1.. Schematic of a nowcasting and forecasting system for a numerical model of the globaland coastal ocean ecosystem. Up to day t-1, observations are assimilated into a numerical model of theocean forced by atmospheric analyses and a ‘nowcast’ is produced. The blending of data and models before day t produces ‘hindcasts’ or analyses. At day t the atmospheric forcing is switched toforecast, the observations do not correct the model anymore and an ocean forecast is produced.

5.1.2 Toward a Predictive Understanding

The development of a fully integrated observing sys-tem will require a strong and ongoing interactionbetween the groups responsible for establishing andrunning the observing system and the modellers. Sci-entists interested in fundamental questions abouthow marine systems work also have an importantrole to play. A brief discussion of the connectionsbetween observing, modelling and understandingmarine systems is given below:

Observations Models: Models of marineecosystems cannot function without observations;they are needed to specify initial and boundary con-ditions and help set model parameters. Conversely,models can be used to monitor the quality of real-time data streams and detect (and rectify) problemswith sensors and data telemetry. Models can helpdetermine what to measure and at what resolution,and also help design more effective ocean observingsystems. For example Observing System SimulationExperiments (OSSEs) simulate data from various

t-14 t-7 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+7 t+8 t+9

designs in order to assess the effectiveness of thedesigns in making predictions.

Observations Understanding: For most of itshistory, oceanography has been a descriptive sciencedependent on in situ measurements for the identifi-cation, and understanding, of important phenomenaand processes. Similarly, marine biology and ecologyhave progressed as a result of observational andprocess studies carried out on limited time and spacescales. More recently, satellite-based sensors have pro-vided spatially synoptic observations of surface prop-erties that have significantly advanced our under-standing of the oceans and marine plant life on glob-al scales. Conversely, scientific understanding helpsdetermine what to measure and at what resolution. Italso helps to identify keystone and surrogate variablesthat can be used as indicators of future changes thatare easier to measure than the primary variables ofinterest (e.g., the male sex characteristics of femalegastropods as an indicator of marine pollution).

Understanding Models: The development ofGOOS will depend on continued advances in under-standing and the formulation of more robust models.The interplay between models and understandingoften leads to the identification of causal linkagesamong variables that can be used to build predictivemodels based on a mechanistic understanding of thestructure and function of ecosystems. Models oftenprovide the clearest expression of what is understoodabout complex systems (e.g., ecosystems in which the

flows of energy and nutrients are governed by non-linear interactions among many different kinds oforganisms and their environment) and often providethe most effective way of formulating and testinghypotheses about how such systems work.

Observing,modelling and scientific enquiry are mutu-ally dependent activities.The users of GOOS data andits products will benefit directly from all three activi-ties. If one activity fails to develop it will most cer-tainly hinder development of the coastal observationmodule.

5.2 OVERVIEW OF MODELS

The coastal module is designed to provide the infor-mation required to more effectively manage and mit-igate the effects of human activities and climate vari-ability on marine services and public safety, livingmarine resources, public health, and ecosystemhealth. A very brief overview of selected models foreach of these four themes is given below.The intentis not to provide comprehensive reviews but ratheran indication of the scope of the models and theirproducts, their operational status and predictive capa-bilities.

A summary of the typical data requirements for themodels discussed below is given in Table 5.1. Sum-maries of typical model products, and an assessmentof operational status and skill, are given in Tables 5.2and 5.3 respectively.


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Storm SurgesShoreline Change

Currents and Hydrogra-phySurface WavesSea Ice

TsunamisSingle Species

Multiple Species

Ecosystem

Faecal Pollution

Health Risk/Dose-Response

Water Quality

Water Clarity

Aquaculture

Ecotoxicology

Wind stress, air pressure, precipitation, river runoff, sea level, bathymetryWaves, sediment grain size, sea level, wind, freshwater sediment load, bathymetry, coastlinegeomorphology, currents, human alterationsHigh-resolution atmospheric forcing, sea level, temperature, salinity, currents, river runoff,bathymetryWinds, air temperature, surface temperature, waves, sea level, ice coverIce properties and ice velocity, under-ice temperature and salinity, wind and air temperature overice, currents, snow thickness, bathymetrySeismic activity, sea level, bathymetryCatch (by age group or size class if possible), size-dependent growth rates (if catch by size classis used), maturation rates, natural mortality rates, time series of catch and effort, mean weightsof size or age classes, stock-recruit relationshipsCatch (by species, age group or size class if possible), size-dependent growth rates (if catch bysize class is used), maturation rates, natural mortality rates, time series of species-specific catchand effort, mean weights of size or age classes, stock-recruit relationships, composition of thediet by size or age classIn addition to currents, hydrogaphy and nutrients, flows of materials (e.g. carbon) or energyamong ecosystem components, which could include detritus, primary producers, microzooplank-ton, mesozooplankton, macrozooplankton, benthos, fish, nektonic invertebrates, marine mam-mals, seabirds, and harvestersFaecal coliform bacteria enetrococci concentrations, wind, currents, hydrography, distributionand description of waste treatment and outfalls, location of shellfish breeding and harvestingareas, location of beachesOfficial statistics and/or prospective epidemiological studies ofenteric/gastrointestinal/enterovirus and respiratory disease occurrence among individualsexposed and not exposed to bathing waters of known indicator organism concentration, andexposed and not exposed to raw shellfish of known focal indicator/virus concentrationsHydrological and atmospheric forcing, dissolved inorganic nutrients, phytoplankton chlorophyll,dissolved and particulate organic matter, toxic contaminants, dissolved oxygen, zooplankton,suspended sediments, water clarity, benthic nutrient regeneration, oxygen demandSpectral irradiance and light scattering at several depths, concentrations of dissolved organicmatter, suspended sediments, phytoplankton pigmentsIn addition to currents, hydrography and dissolved inorganic nutrients, food supply, turbidity,concentrations of particulate organic matter, phytoplankton biomass (e.g., chlorophyll-a), sealevel, bathymetrySpecific contaminants and/or their metabolites, various measures of population-level consequences

Table 5.1. Summary of typical data requirements for the models mentioned in the text.

MODEL TYPICAL DATA REQUIREMENTS


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Storm SurgesShoreline ChangeCoastal Currents and Hydrog-raphySurface WavesSea IceTsunamisSingle Species

Multiple Species

Ecosystem

Focal Pollution

Health Risk/Dose-Response

Water Quality

Water ClarityAquaculture

Ecotoxicology

Warnings of coastal flooding with a lead-time of hours to daysPredictions of shoreline and nearshore evolution in response to external forcingHindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of coastal ocean currents and temperature and salinityfieldsForecasts of wave conditions with lead times of hours to daysShort-term and seasonal forecasts of ice properties and ice motion Forecasts of tsunami arrival with lead times of minutes to hoursReconstruction of past and present abundance levels, forecasts of abundance under differ-ent management strategiesTime-varying patterns of predation mortality, optimal (sustainable) levels of harvest forexploited communities, evaluation of harvesting strategies for multi-species assemblagesIndicators of ecosystem status, evaluation of impacts of harvesting strategies on non-exploited resources, evaluation of impacts of global change on exploited and non-exploitedresourcesEvaluation of whether beaches/shellfish harvesting areas and shellfish meetlocal/regional/international health guidelines and standards. Help establish the optimumcombination of waste treatment level, length and depth of outfall sewers, and the numberof multiple discharge manifold pipes at the end of outfallsEstimates of increased incidence of gastroenteritis and respiratory infections caused bybathing in contaminated water, and infectious diseases from consuming raw shellfish har-vested in faces-contaminated watersCornerstones for large-scale expenditures aimed at mitigating the effects of anthropogenicnutrient inputsStandardized water clarity calculations and analysis of remotely sensed imagesInformation required to help manage aquaculture operations and regulate their environ-mental impactsPredictions of the fate and effects of anthropogenic chemicals with limited application asroutine ecotoxicological tools in natural ecosystems

Table 5.2. Typical products (available and planned) from the models mentioned in the text.

MODEL TYPICAL PRODUCTS

Storm Surge Operational M HShoreline Change Pilot to pre-operational M - H LCurrents and Hydrography Pilot to pre-operational H MSurface Waves Operational H HSea Ice Operational H M - HTsunamis Operational M M - HSingle Species Operational L - M HMultiple Species Pilot M - H L - MEcosystem Research and development M LFocal Pollution Pre-operational M MHealth Risk/Dose-response Research and development M MWater Quality Pre-operational H M Water Clarity Operational L - H M Aquaculture Pilot L - H M - HEcotoxicology Pre-operational L - H L - M

MODEL OPERATIONAL STATUS COMPLEXITY PREDICTIVE SKILL

Table 5.3. Assessment of the overall operational status, complexity and predictive capabilities of the models mentioned inthe text. L = low, M = medium, H = high.

It is important to note that the focus of this sectionis models that are relevant to global scale or ubiqui-tous problems.This does not mean that site-specificecosystem models and the variables that define themare not important. They are. The choice of modelssimply reflects the focus of the design plan on a glob-

al system (Chapters 1 and 3) and, to a large extent,the selection of global system variables (Chapter 4).Local models, often at very high resolution (less than1 km) and with extra site-specific variables, are theresponsibility of the GRAs.


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Given users will demand results of known quality, allmodels that are termed operational should have thefollowing characteristics:

• Clear and complete documentation describing theunderlying concepts (equations where appropri-ate), simplifying assumptions, inputs and modeloutputs;

• Quantitative descriptions of model-data misfitsbased on rigorous validation using all available his-torical synoptic data by;

• An institution or organization that is responsiblefor the model’s routine operation and its qualityand continuity of forecasts;

• A clearly identified funding pipeline for the nextdecade.

Thus,operational models will have moved through theresearch and development, pilot project, and pre-oper-ational stages before being certified as operational.These preliminary stages are required so that pilotprojects can generate definitive validation tests that areexecuted during the pre-operational stage.

BOX 5.1. CHARACTERISTICS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS

5.2.1 Marine Services and Public Safety

This is the theme for which operational models aremost advanced and for which the most useful andreliable products are available. For example, usefulforecasts have been made of storm surges and seastate for decades. More recently three-dimensionalmodels of the deep ocean and adjacent shallow seas

are being used to nowcast and forecast the verticaland horizontal structure of currents, temperature,salinity, sea ice, and sea level. Ocean models are alsobeing coupled with atmospheric forecast models toallow for the air-sea exchange of momentum, heatand water and thereby achieve more realistic now-casts and forecasts of the coupled atmosphere-oceansystem (Figure 5.2).

Ocean and shelf models can be coupled with ‘applica-tion’ modules to predict, for example, sediment trans-port, ice formation, advection-diffusion of passive andactive tracers, the trajectories of oil slicks and search-and-rescue targets, and high-resolution port hydrody-namics.They can also be coupled with biogeochemicalprocess models and water quality models to predict theevolution of primary and secondary producers and, forexample, anoxia and hypoxia. Work is underway tocouple ocean-shelf models with hydrological models ofriver basins and thereby achieve more realistic forecastsof terrestrial sources of freshwater and hence coastalflooding. Models are also being developed for shallowwater (less than 10 m in depth) where complex, non-linear processes like wave breaking must be tackled.Brief summaries are given below of some of the morespecialized forecast models that fall under the headingof Marine Services and Public Safety.

Storm Surges

Given the tremendous loss of life that can accompa-ny coastal flooding8 , considerable effort has been

expended in developing effective schemes for fore-casting storm surges (e.g. Pugh, 1987). As a conse-quence many regions now have effective surge fore-cast models that provide warnings of coastal floodingwith a lead-time of hours to about one day. For theNorth Sea, for example, a storm tide warning serviceoperated by the U.K. Meteorological Office providesnot only flooding alerts for coastal communities butalso information that helps determine if the ThamesBarrier is to be raised to protect London from flood-ing. (Flather (2002) reviews the operational systemsthat are presently used for real-time forecasting ofsurges for northwest Europe.)

The horizontal decorrelation scale of storm surges isgenerally much larger than that of non-tidal currentsor the velocities of advected, buoyant objects like oilslicks or life-rafts9. One consequence of this differ-


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Figure 5.2. Schematic showing the relationships among open and coastal ocean observations and the various types of models used to produce forcing functions (time dependent boundary conditions), analyses and forecasts.

8 6,000 lives were lost in Galveston Texas in 1900, 2,000 around the southernNorth Sea in 1953 and 500,000 in Bangladesh in 1970.9 Spatial differences in sea level are related to horizontal integrals of surface cur-rents and wind stress and therefore tend to be of larger scale than current or wind.

ence in scale is that it is generally easier to forecastchanges in sea level associated with surges than sur-face currents or trajectories as long as accurate fore-casts of the wind and air pressure fields are available.In fact for extra-tropical regions with relatively widecontinental shelves (e.g. northwest European Shelf,eastern Canadian Shelf) it has been shown that rela-tively simple, depth-integrated models with constantwater density can provide useful surge forecasts. Acase in point is the east coast of Canada where a sim-ple model of this type is now run operationally andcan provide surge forecasts that are accurate to with-in about 10 cm with a lead-time of about 1 day.(Good examples of the accuracy of operational surgeforecasts for a range of coastal environments for theeast and west coasts of the U.S.A. can be obtainedfrom http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/etsurge).

Shoreline Change

Most models of shoreline change have been simple“line models” that have focused on how the shore-line changes with variations in deep-water wave con-ditions and wave transformation processes related toshoaling, refraction, diffraction and frictional dissipa-tion, changes in sediment supply, and even the place-ment of engineering structures in the nearshorezone. More sophisticated numerical models calculatepatterns of shoreline erosion and accretion due to thelong-shore sediment transport, and thereby the time-evolution of the shoreline shape and position. (SeeKomar (1998) and references therein.)

The most advanced models are fully three-dimension-al and calculate cross-shore sediment transport andprofile changes, as well as alongshore sediment trans-port rates. Further development of three-dimensionalmodels will require a better understanding of a num-ber of complex nearshore phenomena and processesincluding infragravity and edge waves, and theprocesses responsible for generation of complex bot-tom topography such as systems of nearshore bars.

Predicting coastal erosion, including the erosion ofcliffs, is a much more difficult problem than predict-ing the effect of wave action on sedimentary coast-lines.A number of additional factors have to be takeninto account including, for example, the combinedeffect of waves and sea ice in some higher latituderegions.

Coastal Currents and Hydrography

Three-dimensional hydrostatic and non-hydrostaticmodels are now used routinely to forecast coastalocean currents and temperature and salinity fields oncontinental shelves (Brink and Robinson, 1998).Thenumerical scheme underlying the models can bebased on finite elements, which allows the horizon-tal resolution to be increased in areas of particularinterest, or finite differences in which case it is possi-ble to nest higher resolution submodels within larg-er scale models that provide the required openboundary conditions. In some cases it is computa-tionally advantageous for the larger-scale model to bebased on physics that is simplified relative to the nest-ed submodel. For example coastal models mustinclude a free surface to predict tides (and in somesituations may relax the hydrostatic assumption)while larger scale, deep ocean models (to whichcoastal models may be coupled) often have a rigid lidand are usually hydrostatic (Haidvogel and Beckman,1998).

In contrast to storm surge models, current models areusually baroclinic and calculate the full three-dimen-sional structure of all hydrodynamic state variablesincluding horizontal currents, sea level, temperatureand salinity. This class of model is thus suitable forcoupling with models of, for example, marine bio-geochemistry, water quality, and hydrology (includingsubmodels of river catchment basins that can ulti-mately forecast river runoff and thereby extend thepredictability of coastal models). It is expected thatnew technologies (e.g.AUVs, HF radars) and ‘coastal’satellite sensors will increase the forecast skill of thesemodels in the near future.

Surface Waves

Operational forecasting for the open ocean is usuallymade using a global model domain with rather coarsehorizontal resolution in order to capture the remotegeneration of wind waves and their great-circle propa-gation toward the coast as swell. Wave forecasting onregional scales requires finer spatial resolution and care-ful treatment of the local coastal boundary and bottomtopography. A coastal version of the third-generationwave models (which allow for nonlinear wave-waveinteraction directly) has been developed to deal withthese issues (e.g., Booij et al., 1999).


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The typical resolution of the present coastal wavemodels is between 10 and 30 km. User requirementsare becoming more diversified and finertemporal/spatial information about the coastal wavefield is required.The computer burden of third gen-eration wave models has made it difficult to increasespatial resolution in shallow water.To overcome thisdifficulty, a new third-generation coastal wave modelwith much finer spatial resolution (better than 1 km)has been developed and is undergoing testing andevaluation by the research community.As the coast isapproached a number of additional phenomena canbecome important and sophisticated models, somenow commercially available, have been developed bythe nearshore engineering community.

As for surges, the primary driver of wave models isthe wind and the need for accurate wind forecastscannot be overemphasized. Initial conditions forwave models are determined from in situ measure-ments and remotely sensed observations. Precisewave information along coastal lines and accuratebottom topography are also essential in coastal wavemodels.

Sea Ice

Sea ice can interfere with offshore activities such asoffshore drilling, marine transportation, fishing andsearch and rescue missions and can pose a serioushuman threat in high latitude oceans. Similarly thefreeze-up of harbours and rivers can also affect theeconomy and quality of life of people living in highlatitude coastal communities.

Sea-ice models predict the formation, concentrationand thickness distribution, internal pressure, and thevelocity of sea-ice. Many models have been devel-oped over the past 40 years. The early models con-sidered only the thermodynamics of sea-ice andwind forcing of ice over an inactive ocean. Howeverduring ice formation and growth, brine is rejectedfrom the ice resulting in an increase in surface salin-ity. During ice melt, freshwater is released into theupper ocean.The change in the upper-ocean proper-ties can in turn change the heat and water transferrates at the ice-water interface, and hence the ice dis-tribution. Failure to include such feedbacks betweenthe ocean and sea ice can lead to large errors inmodel predictions.

Improvements in sea ice models have come fromcoupling sea-ice and ocean models, better numericsand data, improved parameterisations of ice rheologyand ice-ocean and ice-atmosphere processes. Cou-pled ice-ocean models for ice prediction have beendeveloped and implemented for many coastal areasincluding the Baltic Sea (Haapala and Leppaeranta,1996), east coast of Canada (e.g. Yao et al., 2000,Saucier and Dionne, 1998) and the Arctic Ocean(Riedlinger and Preller, 1991). Further improvementsof regional sea-ice models will include coupling tolarge-scale ice-ocean models, coupling to atmospher-ic boundary layer models, and data assimilation.

Oil Spills

Oil pollution from both land and ocean-basedsources can pose a serious threat to coastal ecosys-tems (section 2.4). Once a marine spill has occurred,sophisticated models can be used to forecast its tra-jectory, evolution and environmental impact (e.g.French, 1998).

Physical conditions in the upper layer of the oceancontrol, to a large extent, the fate of surface slicks.The surface flow, which is forced by a range factors(e.g. local wind and waves, tides, density gradients,deep ocean effects), determines the horizontal move-ment of the oil.While drifting with the surface flow,the slick can be diffused by turbulent motions andmodified by many physical/chemical/biologicalprocesses including spreading, evaporation, emulsifi-cation, entrainment, sedimentation, biochemicaldecay and contact with coastlines and sea ice(Spaulding, 1988).Advection and weathering of sur-face slicks can be usefully forecast with lead times ofabout a week by the present generation of models,some of which are commercially available. (Theprocesses controlling the breakdown of hydrocarbonsinto relatively benign products on time scales ofmonths are relatively poorly understood.). Three-dimensional models are also now being used to pre-dict the entrainment and subsurface transport of theoil, and its possible resurfacing (e.g. French, 1998).

Oil forecast models require good initial conditionsfor the spill including its extent, volume and chemi-cal properties. These models also require forcing attheir surface and lateral boundaries. The coastalocean observing system has an important role to play


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in providing data to regional atmospheric-ocean-wave models (Figure 5.2) that will lead to betterforecasts of surface winds, currents and wave condi-tions.

Tsunamis

The surface elevation generated by a sharp verticalmotion of the sea floor during an earthquake canradiate waves away from deep ocean source regions.Given that such seismically-excited motions havewavelengths of order 100 km, they propagate as shal-low water waves in the deep ocean and enter coastalwaters as a tsunami. While propagating across thedeep ocean, their amplitude is small (order 1 meter)compared to their wavelength. This implies gentleslopes of the sea surface and difficulty of detectionusing conventional methods. As the tsunamiapproaches shallow water however their amplitudecan amplify leading to severe flooding and devasta-tion with serious loss of life. Although tsunamis arerare, their impact is so profound that they are treatedas a serious threat in the coastal zone.

To model the generation of a tsunami a source modelis used to determine the initial vertical displacementsof the sea surface caused by earthquakes or other seis-mic activities. The subsequent propagation of thetsunami is modelled based on the shallow-water waveequation. It is believed that linear theory can accu-rately predict the propagation of the tsunami indepths exceeding 500 m; in coastal seas shallowerthan about 50 m, other dynamical effects, such asadvection of momentum and bottom friction, mustbe taken into account.To simulate the shoaling andflooding of the tsunami, it is important to specifyaccurately both the nearshore bathymetry and thecoastline (e.g., Shuto, 1991).

When a tsunami is generated in the far field (i.e. dis-tances greater than about 1000 km), it can take sev-eral hours to travel to the coastal region of interest.Information on the tsunami propagation fromremote sites can be usefully monitored by arrays ofwidely separated coastal tide gauges and used to ini-tialise the propagation model (e.g. the InternationalTsunami Warning System was established to forecastthe arrival of tsunamis in remote parts of the Pacificbasin (http://ioc.unesco.org/iocweb/activities/tsunami.htm).

5.2.2 Living Marine Resources

The development of conceptual and mathematicalmodels has played a central role in marine biologyand ecology as a tool for synthesis, prediction, andunderstanding. This activity has encompassed thedevelopment of models for single species, multi-species communities, and for whole ecosystems (e.g.Hofmann and Lascara, 1998; Hofmann andFriedrichs, 2002).The use of models has proven espe-cially important because marine systems are typicallynot amenable to controlled experimental manipula-tion and alternate strategies involving the interplay ofobservation and modelling are critical. For appliedproblems such as fishery management and environ-mental protection, models are essential for predictingoutcomes of proposed management actions (e.g.,Moll and Radach, 2001; and Fischer et al., 2000).

The development of hindcasts, nowcasts, and fore-casts of the status of living marine resources is anintegral component of fishery research and manage-ment.These models depend on an extensive existingobserving system designed to monitor catches, fish-ing effort, and demographic characteristics of thecatch (size and/or age structure). In many areas, fish-ery-independent scientific surveys have also beenconducted to monitor ecosystem status. The mostcommon type of model used for hindcasts and now-casts is sequential population analysis in which theabundance and survival rates for each age or size classof a population are determined (e.g. Quinn andDeriso 1999). Other models of production processesat the population level are routinely used to set man-agement targets and limits to exploitation and toevaluate the effects of alternative managementactions.

Considerable attention has recently been directed tothe development of models and management strate-gies to meet broader ecosystem-based managementstrategies (including protection of vulnerable habi-tats, preservation of ecosystem structure and func-tion). The coastal module of GOOS can make animportant contribution to the development of modeland management strategies directed at these higherlevels of organization (multispecies and ecosystemlevels) by complementing the existing extensiveefforts in place to monitor population trends inexploited living marine resources.


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Multiple Species Dynamics

Explicit representation of species groups or assem-blages in multi-species models has been undertakenin a number of marine systems (Hollowed et al.,2000;Whipple et al., 2000). Most often, these modelsconsider interactions among members of identifiedcommunities of organisms and typically span a limit-ed number of trophic levels. Predator-prey and com-petitive interactions have been most extensivelymodelled. In contrast to individual species models,these models provide explicit representations ofinteracting species and can be used, therefore, toexamine the implications of changes in the relativeabundance of species within biological communities.

Multi-species sequential population analysis is anextension of sequential population analysis that canbe used to account for the effects of predator-preyinteractions in an exploited community (Hollowedet al., 2000;Whipple et al., 2000).The features of themodels follow the single species structure outlinedabove with the addition of information on the dietof the species in the model. These models allow apartitioning of natural mortality into a predationcomponent and a component due to other sources ofmortality such as disease. Estimates of total consump-tion of a prey item are treated as a removal term justas harvesting represents a loss term. Multi-speciessequential population analyses are data intensive andhave been employed in fewer settings than their sin-gle species counterparts. Examples of regional appli-cations include the North Sea and the Georges Bankregion of the Northwest Atlantic.

Extension of single species production models toassemblages of interacting species have been appliedin both non-structured (bulk biomass) and demo-graphically structured forms. These models typicallyinclude explicit terms for various forms of biologicalinteractions, particularly competition and predationwith the objective of determining the community-wide effects of exploitation.This approach recognizesthat, in a community of interacting species, the yieldof all species cannot be simultaneously maximizedsince changes in the abundance of each species affectthe abundance of interacting species.

Non-structured multi-species models have includedforms in which individual species are not explicitly

modelled and only the total yield from an assemblageof interacting species is considered and biologicalinteractions are implicit. These models have beenemployed particularly where separation by species isnot possible (e.g., high diversity tropical fisheries,Ralston and Polovina, 1982). Other forms includespecific consideration of competition and predationin an extension of the classical Lotka-Volterra equa-tions incorporating harvesting mortality.The yield ofindividual species as well as the total yield from allspecies is modelled.

Multi-species analogues of age- or stage-structuredproduction models have been less commonlyemployed.These models do permit consideration ofage, or size, specific processes that can be critical indevising management strategies. For example, preda-tion mortality is often highest on pre-recruits andmodels that explicitly consider the biological interac-tions in the stock-recruitment relationship are morerealistic.

Ecosystem Dynamics

Models of whole ecosystems have been developedfor some marine systems with direct consideration ofnutrient inputs and representation of each trophiclevel from primary producers through top predators(e.g. Pauly et al., 2000; Baretta et al., 1995). Becauseof the complexity of these ecosystems, aggregatespecies groups are often used to represent at leastsome trophic levels, thus reducing the overall numberof compartments in the model to a more manageablesize, e.g. phytoplankton in two or three size classes,microzooplankton, gelatinous macrozooplankton,copepods, filter feeding fish, and predatory fish.Therecognized importance of the development ofecosystem-based management approaches highlightsthe need to develop operational ecosystem modelsfor the purposes of fisheries management. Ecosys-tem-based management recognizes the importanceof essential fish habitats, multi-species interactions,and nutrient cycling as parameters of the growth,abundance and distribution of exploitable fish stocks.Accordingly, it is critical to understand and predictboth direct and indirect effects of human activities onmarine ecosystems including the following:

(1) alterations in food web structure and changes inbiodiversity that may result from fish harvests or


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nutrient over enrichment (thereby altering foodsupplies or predation rates);

(2) habitat loss or modification due to human activ-ities or natural hazards (thereby decreasing ratesof recruitment and increasing exposure to pred-ators); and

(3) introductions of non-native species that mayreproduce and grow (and outcompete native fishstocks, produce biotoxins that cause mass mor-talities of fish or make fish toxic to humans, ormodify essential fish habitat).

Models have been developed of energy flow and uti-lization in marine ecosystems, using information onstanding stocks of individual species, or aggregatetrophic groups, and the flows of energy or materialbetween the living and non-living (e.g. detritus)components of the ecosystem. Analytical approacheshave been used to yield outputs on some functionalproperties of the ecosystems, such as the magnitudeof recycling, flow diversity, and the efficiency ofenergy flows. The advantage of standardizedapproaches is that comparative analyses across manyecosystem types are possible within a commonframework.

Ecosystem network models provide static snapshotsof ecosystem processes under certain mass balanceassumptions. Dynamic ecosystem simulation modelshave also been developed and applied to these fisherysystems (Hollowed et al., 2000;Whipple et al., 2000;Pauly et al., 2000). Typically these models providehigh resolution on the upper trophic levels (particu-larly exploited species) with more aggregated systemrepresentations at lower trophic levels.

5.2.3 Public Health

Models that have been developed to predict humanhealth effects and related impacts (hospitalisation,death etc.) from environmental data are useful as longas due consideration is given to their limitations. Ofthese, perhaps the most significant is the reality thatcurrent models are able to provide useful predictionsmainly when the pathology is caused by exposure toa single agent, e.g., poisoning caused by a biotoxinproduced by a species of harmful algae. However, formany diseases that are related to seafood consump-tion or environmental exposure, other factors may beinvolved. For example, the extent to which neurobe-

havioural deficits are caused by prenatal exposure tomethyl mercury from contaminated seafood is diffi-cult to quantify statistically because many other envi-ronmental and genetic factors may also be involved.With this limitation in mind, examples are givenbelow of the use of models in addressing two impor-tant public health issues.

Predicting Dispersion of Faecal Indicators andPathogens

Predictive models have been developed by engineersand marine scientists to estimate the dilution, disper-sion and decline of faecal pollution indicator organ-isms from wastewater discharges to the sea. Thesemodels take into consideration the three main mech-anisms involved: (1) dilution by turbulent mixing; (2)advective transport; and (3) the rate of decay of thepollutant, decrease in toxicity of the organism, ormortality (including the rate of dormancy) as a func-tion of environmental factors such as photochemicaloxidation, increases in salinity, predation, and starva-tion.

Experience with the use of such models and con-ventional wisdom indicates that the maximumdegree of dilution obtainable by the jet plume dis-charge to the surface is in the order of 10:1. Theadditional dilution obtainable by dispersion and dif-fusion through the advective flow and lateral move-ment of the plume after it has risen to the surface isusually no more than an additional 10:1 to 20:1, sothe concentration of a pathogen by dilution alonemay be on the order of 100:1 to 200:1. In addition,although bacterial mortality rates vary as a functionof local conditions, numerous field studies indicatethat the rates at which the concentration of activebacteria decline, expressed as T90 (the time for 90%reduction in concentration), ranges from 60 to 120minutes.

If standards for the acceptable bacterial levels forbathing or shellfish harvesting have been establishedby regulatory agencies, then it is possible to use thesedilution-bacterial mortality models to help establishthe optimum combination of waste treatment level,length and depth of the outfall sewer, and the num-ber of the multiple discharge manifold pipes at theend of the outfall required to meet or exceed suchstandards.


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Health Risk Related to Marine Toxins

Since 1977, researchers at the University of Miami’sRosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sci-ence have developed a database (Ciguafile) of ciguat-era cases that is among the largest in the world. Spa-tial density analysis of the data revealed hotspots nearPuerto Rico and the Bahamas that are being used tomap ciguatoxic reefs and can be used to calculatehealth risks based on statistical models. GIS allows forlinkages and analysis of databases on oceanographicenvironmental conditions. Such maps provide ameans to explore relationships between environmen-tal factors and the distribution of risk, thereby devel-oping a more mechanistic understanding that can beused to develop and improve models of health risksassociated with diseases such as ciguatera.

5.2.4 Ecosystem Health

Numerous international conventions and agreementsfocus on protecting and restoring healthy ecosystems.Changes in the following phenomena are widelyaccepted indicators of changes in the condition orhealth of marine and estuarine ecosystems: (1) habi-tat modification and loss, (2) loss of biodiversity, (3)eutrophication and chemical contamination (declinesin water quality), (4) harmful algal events, (5) inva-sions of non-native species, and (6) diseases in andmass mortalities of marine organisms. Currently, anenormous range of models is available to predict theeffect of anthropogenic impacts on ecosystem health.This section reviews the current status of modellingfor eutrophication (water quality, water clarity, aqua-culture) and ecotoxicology associated with chemicalcontamination.

Water Quality

Water quality models represent a class of numericalsimulation models used to assess and forecast respons-es of water quality variables to changes in loadingrates (e.g. nutrients, organic matter, toxic contami-nants) from point and diffuse sources in coastalwatersheds (e.g., Cerco and Cole 1993).These mod-els often serve as cornerstones for large-scale expen-ditures aimed at mitigating the effects of anthro-pogenic nutrient inputs.The structure of these mod-els is similar to coupled biophysical models used inoceanographic simulations (e.g., Fasham et al., 1990,

Sarmiento et al., 1993), with external inputs (hydro-logical and climatological) driving the model andphysical circulation computed to transport materialsthat are also altered by biogeochemical kineticprocesses (e.g., Cerco and Cole, 1993). Modern waterquality models also employ relatively sophisticatedrepresentations of fundamental ecological and bio-geochemical processes occurring in sediments andassociated exchanges of nutrients, oxygen and organ-ic matter between sediments and overlying water(e.g., DiToro, 2001).

Most water quality models emphasize "bottom-up"(nutrient) control on biogeochemical processes withminimal focus on "top-down" (consumer) controland ecological feedback processes that influenceflows of energy and nutrients and link primary pro-ducer and consumer populations (e.g., Kemp andBartleson, 1991, Ross et al., 1993, Kremer et al.,2000). Such models are usually calibrated and vali-dated using historical data. Available large data setsderive and drive these models, though calibration isusually done using informal trial-and-error methodsor linear optimisation programming approaches (e.g.,Lung, 1989). Generally, more formal data assimilationmethods (section 5.3, Lawson et al., 1996) have notbeen applied to water quality modelling. Althoughwater quality models are typically very well calibrat-ed for dissolved oxygen and phytoplankton blooms,they are seldom checked against basic parameterssuch as total primary production or respiration thatdefine and constrain dynamics of coastal ecosystems.

Water Clarity

Water clarity models are used to describe the lightfield at a given depth in order to feed into phyto-plankton or benthic plant productivity models. Sincemodels of water clarity rely on the predictably oflight behaviour with depth depending on the relativequantities of absorbing and scattering components,they are also used to understand the constituents ofthe water which contribute to a change in waterclarity over a given time period.The constituents thatcan be monitored optically are suspended solids, dis-solved organic matter, and phytoplankton biomass.Water clarity models range from relatively simplemathematical relationships based on the physicalbehaviour of light in water to more complex algo-rithms associated with remote sensing.


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Aquaculture

Models for coastal aquaculture operations fall intoone of two categories: (1) those used to evaluate theenvironmental impacts of aquaculture on coastalecosystems (e.g. excess organic loading from sedi-mentation of faeces or excess food, regeneration ofammonia, removal of suspended organic matter), and(2) those used to estimate growth rate and maximumsustainable yield in terms of numbers of organismand/or their biomass.The latter often employ mod-els similar to LMR models.

Mass balance equations that treat the culture area orvolume as consumers of organic matter (food) andproducers of organic matter (biomass and waste) areat the heart of most aquaculture models. Such mod-els are coupled to hydrodynamic models that supplyand remove food and wastes. Models of sedimenta-tion may contain more complex hydrodynamicsbecause it is necessary to resolve the benthic bound-ary layer in order to parameterise deposition andresuspension. Moreover, these models may beextended to the consequences of increased carbon ornitrogen loading for which benthic submodels ofnutrient regeneration are necessary (Chapelle et al.,2000).

The form of these models varies from box models (e.g.Dowd, 1997) to three dimensional circulation modelscoupled to ecosystem models (e.g. Pastres et al., 2001).Correspondingly, the hydrodynamic component rangesfrom bulk flushing times to exchange coefficients tomatrices of current velocities on a model grid.A recentdevelopment in these models has been their incorpo-ration of GIS as a means of running the model or inte-grating output (Pastres et al., 2001).This allows modeloutput in the form of maps depicting seston depletion,growth, and biodeposition.

In addition to the physical model, a bioenergeticmodel of the culture species is often used to estimatebiomass production and waste output based on foodsupply.These models are robust at predicting growthfrom a given set of food conditions, since the bioen-ergetics of most cultured species are well document-ed (e.g. Grant and Bacher, 1998). Depending on thegoal of the model, there may be submodels for otherecosystem components including nutrients, phyto-plankton and zooplankton. Recent studies have

focused on the effects of the culture hardware (lines,nets, anchors) on circulation which is especially rele-vant in heavily utilized, shallow bays.

Overall, models of aquaculture impact and sestondepletion have reached the stage of being activelyused for both the management of aquaculture oper-ations and the regulation of their environmentalimpacts. It is important to note however that (1)although the required software is becoming com-mercially available, significant investment is requiredto implement monitoring programmes and developcirculation models that are, for the most part, site-specific; (2) waste production models suffer fromsome of the same empirical weaknesses as sedimenttransport models in that erosion thresholds and sink-ing speeds of natural particles are often not wellknown.

Ecotoxicology

In recent decades, significant effort has been devotedto determining the transport, availability, fate, relativetoxicities, and biological effects of a diverse range ofanthropogenic chemicals. A key feature of ecotoxi-cology is its reliance on the use of models of variouskinds to extrapolate from laboratory studies to thefield, from individuals to communities, and fromeffects of single chemicals to multiple effects of com-plex mixtures, i.e., to extrapolate from experimentalobservations to effects in nature.

Many efforts to model toxicity rely heavily on dose-response relationships. By establishing relationshipsbetween chemical exposure and toxicity in the labo-ratory, toxicity thresholds, concentrations at which50% of the test population dies, etc. can be predictedand used with appropriate safety factors for environ-mental legislation. Mechanisms of toxicity have alsobeen studied using models of receptor-ligand inter-action. These early models are the foundation fromwhich more elaborate attempts have been made topredict toxicity and make risk assessments (Klaasenand Eaton, 1991).

Models have been developed to predict exposure,biological affects, and the consequences of remedialaction (Whelan et al., 1987). A variety of models isavailable for determining the persistence of organicpollutants (Roberts et al., 1981), the fate of inorgan-


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ic compounds (e.g. Dolan and Bierman, 1982), thespeciation of metals (e.g. MINTEQAI – Brown andAllison, 1987) and chemical spills (Brown and Silver,1986). There are also available models that estimateexposure to environmental pollutants (Mackay, 1991;OECD, 1989).

Efforts have been made to model the toxicity ofchemicals to give at least some insight into potentialeffects. One of the most highly developed approach-es is based on Quantitative Structure-Activity Rela-tionships (QSARs; Nendza, 1998). Based on empiri-cal extrapolations, these models are used to estimatethe parameters relating to fate and effects and henceidentify contaminants of particular concern. Withregard to biological effects, models are available forpredicting pollutant-induced changes at all levels ofbiological organization (see Levine et al., 1989).Models of molecular and toxicological mechanismswere briefly alluded to earlier.

In recent years, models that have been developed pri-marily for studying population dynamics in an eco-logical context have been modified for use in eco-toxicology.This has permitted preliminary investiga-tions of the relationships between pollutant exposureand population-level consequences (Suter, 1993)which are tuned to reflect the impact of varyingdegrees of environmental stress, whether natural oranthropogenic, on the population in question.

Similarly, at the community and ecosystem levels,models exist for predicting changes in structure andfunction that have been validated to varying degrees(Barnthouse, 1993).The key to using these models inan ecotoxicological context is to provide evidencethat pollutants specifically contribute to the observedor predicted changes in populations, communitiesand ecosystem.

In summary, an enormous range of models are avail-able to predict both the fate and effects of anthro-pogenic chemicals. However, at this stage our lack ofunderstanding and in some cases our ability to meas-ure relevant parameters, has hampered their applica-tion as routine ecotoxicological tools in naturalecosystems.

Advances in ecotoxicological modelling have beenthwarted both by a lack of understanding of numer-

ous biological and ecological processes, and by tech-nical limitations which have prevented proper fieldvalidation of model predictions. In the confines ofthe laboratory such models usually operate quitewell. However, ecotoxicological models for applica-tion at the level of individuals and above, that are rel-evant in the assessment and prediction of changes inecosystem structure and function, have provedextremely difficult to establish.

5.3 DATA ASSIMILATION

Data assimilation is a numerical procedure for com-bining observations and dynamical models. It haslong been an essential component of weather fore-casting where it is used to continuously reinitialiseforecast models based on differences between previ-ous forecasts and newly available data (Daley, 1991).Modern data assimilation techniques have also beenused to reconstruct the three dimensional state of theglobal atmosphere over the last 50 years in what areusually referred to as reanalyses (e.g. the NCEPreanalysis, Kistler et al., 2000).

Data assimilation has uses beyond hindcasting, now-casting and forecasting. It can provide a quality con-trol mechanism for operational observing systems.Specifically assimilation models can identify, in anoperational mode, suspect observations and possiblyreject them based on comparison with correspon-ding model predictions, taking into account the sta-tistical distributions of the errors. A sequence of badobservations can help identify a faulty instrumentthat needs to be repaired in a timely fashion.Adjointmodels are part of four dimensional, variational(4DVar) assimilation schemes. They can be used toassess the value of observations made at arbitrarylocations and times and, in principle, be used toimprove the design of observing systems.

Data assimilation schemes are most advanced foratmospheric models although the data assimilativephysical oceanographic models are closing the gap(e.g. Robinson 1999, Lozano et al., 1996). In factmany of the more advanced techniques, such asextended and ensemble Kalman filtering, 4DVar andthe incremental approach10 , have already been tried


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10 The incremental approach uses a simpler model and its adjoint to guide a moresophisticated model along a trajectory that is consistent with observations.

for shelf seas and oceans. Data assimilation has notbeen used widely in the modelling of non-physicalproperties of coastal ecosystems (Robinson and Ler-musiaux, 2002). However, this will likely change overthe next decade with the increasing power of com-puters and new observations from the coastal observ-ing system.

The predictability of coastal ecosystems is limited by(1) errors in specifying the external forcing, (2)uncertainties in the initial and open boundary con-ditions, including lateral boundaries for coastal mod-els (and trophic levels for ecosystem models), (3) thecomplexity, and inherent nonlinearity, of coastalecosystems which can make even the formulation ofa quantitative model challenging. When attemptingto make forecasts, data assimilation is used primarilyto help reduce uncertainties in the initial and openboundary conditions.

The basic idea behind data assimilation is straightfor-ward, particularly if explained in Bayesian termsusing concepts such as prior and posterior distribu-tions.The devil of course is in the details, particular-ly when it comes to assimilating sparse, noisy datainto highly non-linear, computationally expensivemodels.The assimilation of data into coastal ecosys-tem models presents a number of technical problemsincluding:

• The strongly non-linear form of ecosystemmodels. This can cause strong feedbacks acrossmultiple trophic levels and possibly chaoticbehaviour.

• The high dimensionality of complex ecosystemmodels. For circulation models, the dimension ofthe state space is 5. It could be larger by at leastan order of magnitude for complex ecosystemmodels. This means the specification of errorbiases and covariances will be difficult (assuminga statistical description of errors in terms of firstand second moments is even adequate). It alsomeans the ‘optimal’ solution will be hard to find(multiple minima will likely exist in the penaltyfunction to be minimized) and error bars willrequire extensive computation.

• The long memory of some components of thecoastal ecosystem.This will make specification ofinitial conditions difficult.

• Rapid variability in both space and time (e.g. rip

currents, edge waves, river plumes, patchy harm-ful algal blooms). High-resolution models arerequired.

• Computational costs. Data assimilation oftencomes down to the inversion of large matrices.The assimilation of data into complex ecosystemmodels will require advances in supercomputersand parallel architectures. Modern assimilationtechniques such as the ensemble Kalman filter-ing and the incremental approach will probablyplay an important role.

• Extremes. Many users are interested in extremeevents (e.g. sea levels with long return periods,concentration of a pollutant above a high thresh-old). This will complicate both the forwardmodelling and the assimilation, including possi-bly the definition of the penalty function.

Recent developments in the extraction of informa-tion from observations include neural network andgenetic algorithms.These techniques have not gener-ally been compared with the more traditional meth-ods of data assimilation. Neural networks and genet-ic programming should arguably be used in additionto the classical field estimation techniques to pre- orpost-process the observations and/or determine thevalues of free parameters in the numerical models.

In summary, the role of data assimilation in bringingtogether models and data in order to increase thepredictability of marine ecosystems, help design bet-ter observing systems and control the quality of data,makes it of central importance to COOP.

5.4 CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION

Models will play a critical role in the design andoperation of the coastal observing system and thegeneration of products. There will be considerableoverlap of interest and activity between the range ofmodels developed and operated in a standardisedglobal mode, and smaller scale, higher resolutionmodels that include variables specific to a region, anestuary, or the near-shore environment. The latterwill typically be developed within the GRAs,although the same model might be used or sharedbetween several GRAs. Coastal models also requireinformation on the terrestrial inputs and so closecoordination of the activities of COOP with GCOSand GTOS will be required for both model develop-


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ment and operations. If the coastal module is torealize its full potential, modelling must be inte-grated ab initio into the observing system’s design,operation and ongoing evaluation. Although theabove overview of models is not comprehensive, it ispossible to draw the following conclusions.

A large number of models are being used to addressa wide range of coastal issues.The models are used topredict, for example, storm surges and waves, the sizeof fish stocks, and the effect of nutrient pollution oncoastal ecosystems. This presents both opportunitiesand challenges for implementation of the coastalmodule. The models have been developed to solvereal problems so the links between modellers andusers are being made and much useful infrastructureis already in place.This is not the case of a modellingsolution looking for a problem to solve. On the otherhand, the range of models and their data require-ments makes the design of an integrated observingsystem a complex task, arguably a challenge fargreater that that faced in the design and implemen-tation of the global ocean module of GOOS.

Most of the models described under Marine Servicesand Public Safety are either fully operational or pre-operational and data assimilation is well advanced.For the remaining three themes (living marineresources, public health, and ecosystem health), anoperational capability is generally at least five yearsaway and data assimilation has yet to have a signifi-cant impact.This is an important reason for design-ing the observing system to both predict changes andmake the observations required to develop and vali-date non-physical models as they become opera-tional.

Accurate atmospheric forcing fields are essential ifthe physical models and their many application mod-ules are to make useful predictions. In fact when thepreliminary ranking of common variables was per-formed with meteorological variables included, windwas found to be the most important variable for pre-diction. Unfortunately the coastal zone is a difficultplace to make atmospheric forecasts with its ruggedorography and strong land-sea contrasts of tempera-ture, humidity and surface roughness. The presentgeneration of regional atmospheric models has a hor-izontal resolution of about 20 km. This is arguablytoo coarse in coastal regions, particularly when

attempting to forecast the trajectories of buoyantobjects, like oil slicks, harmful algal blooms, and life-rafts, or the effect of processes that depend on high-er order moments of the wind like local wave gener-ation and the breakdown of vertical stratification.Thedevelopment of high resolution, and possibly non-hydrostatic, atmospheric models will be critical to thesuccessful development of the coastal module.

Data assimilation will play an increasingly importantrole in the design and operation of the observing sys-tem and the generation of products for users.This isentirely consistent with the situation in weather andopen ocean forecasting. However, data assimilationposes a number of problems that are particularlyacute in the coastal zone including (1) the highspace-time variability of the coastal and nearshorephysical environment (e.g. tides, river outflows), (2)the multidisciplinary aspects of ecosystem models, (3)the practical difficulties of making observations onthe appropriate scales, and (4) developing observing,modelling and assimilation strategies to deal withhighly episodic and extreme events.

It is also important to recognize that all aspects ofdata assimilation for biological and chemical process-es will be dependent on improvements in capabilitiesfor measuring appropriate variables on scales thatmust be resolved to develop and validate models.Promising approaches include sensing of chlorophyllconcentration from satellites and moorings, automat-ed nutrient analysers, and acoustic systems for assess-ing distributions of zooplankton and fish.

Community models have proven to be very useful inoceanography. Examples include, but are not limitedto, the Princeton Ocean Model (used widely for shelfproblems over the last decade) and the Parallel OceanProgramme (POP, developed by the Los AlamosNational Laboratory and used for deep ocean stud-ies). Such models are used by broad communities ofscientists for fundamental research and the generationof useful products such as operational forecasts of sur-face currents and sea level. A similar community-based approach would also accelerate the develop-ment of models for biogeochemical problems.

Ongoing and systematic evaluation of the modelling-assimilation system will be essential for the coastalmodule to be effective. At least two levels of evalua-


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tion will be required. The first type of evaluation isan internal evaluation of model skill based on well-defined and internationally accepted metrics. Forphysical variables defined at fixed points (e.g. coastalsea level), this will usually be straightforward (e.g.root mean square difference between observed andforecast sea level). For forecast quantities like theposition of fronts, the probability of the occurrenceof a harmful algal bloom, and more complex quanti-ties forecast by integrated ecosystem models, the sit-uation becomes even more difficult. Generallyaccepted metrics will have to be defined however ifprogress in modelling is to be quantified.Again it willbe worthwhile learning from the experience of theatmospheric forecasters who not only have to evalu-ate skill in forecasting point measurements but alsoprecipitation fields which have patchiness character-istics that, superficially at least, are similar to those ofbiological variables like phytoplankton biomass.Coordination of efforts in defining metrics withdeep ocean modellers will similarly be useful. Thesecond type of evaluation will provide a measure ofthe usefulness of the model products.This will nec-essarily involve the users and may be more qualitativethan the internal evaluation, at least initially. Thisexternal evaluation will be facilitated by the develop-ment of user-oriented model products, softwareinterfaces and visualization tools that allow users toexplore the model output.

As mentioned above, the oceanographic communityis moving toward coupled models, e.g. shelf anddeep ocean, shelf and atmosphere, water propertiesand harmful algal blooms. It would appear useful tothink about coupling shelf models with basin scalemodels developed under the auspices of the OOPC.Simply put, the coastal models need the basin scale

models for open boundary conditions; the basinscale models need the shelf models to simulate cor-rectly processes such as cross shelf exchange andbuoyancy input from rivers, as well as to transformopen ocean predictions into forms of interest tousers. Two-way coupling of models is not an easytask; it must solve a number of problems includingdifferent space-time resolutions of models, differentphysics and parameterisations, and different numeri-cal schemes. Collaboration of deep ocean and coastalmodellers at an early stage in the development of thecoastal observing system would appear a sensiblemove and one that could, in the first instance, beachieved through exchange of personnel, specializedworkshops, modelling networks, and joint COOP-OOPC pilot projects. Tangible products that couldresult from such a collaboration include communitymodels and application modules for use by the sci-entific community.

For observations and models to manifest their fulleffect on the reasoned and effective development ofcoastal policy, additional efforts to link to socio-eco-nomic factors must be made. Recent efforts to utilizea Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR)model show some promise in this regard (Figure 5.3;Annex X). Within this framework, data describinglarger-scale social dynamics (drivers), human forcingon environmental systems (pressures), the social ben-efits gained and costs imposed (impacts) by changesto environmental conditions (state) are conceptuallylinked to responsive regulatory approaches (respons-es). While still at an early evolutionary stage thisapproach could serve to build more operationalmodels and serve as an organizing framework for thearticulation and analysis of a broad suite coastal sys-tem and socio-economic indicators.


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87

Driver

Pressure

State

Impact

Response

Capacity Building

Analysis

Indicator

Certain socio-economic indi-cators can describe systemdrivers or the sustainabilityof give state character

Resident coastal populationpatterns in land use/landcover development of coastalindustry sectors

Coastal wetland alteration Introduction of industrial POPs/metalsIntroduction of coastal agricultural fertilizers

Cost of marine-vectored diseaseValue of recreational bathingValue of commercial fishing

Changes in nutrient dynamicsContaminant burden in marine sediments

Policy dynamicsInstitutional change

Adapted from: IUCN (2000)European Commission (2000)

Figure 5.3. Schematic showing the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model.

6.1 OBJECTIVES

The objective is to develop an integrated data man-agement and communications system (DMAC) thatefficiently transmits large volumes of multi-discipli-nary data (in real-time, near-real-time, and delayedmodes) from many sources (in situ measurements,autonomous in situ sensors, remote sensors) directly tousers for a broad diversity of applications includingdata assimilating models that process the measure-ments into maps, plots, forecasts, and environmentalstatistics (e.g., climatologies). The system should pro-vide a user interface which allows non-experts orexternal customers to access data and obtain answersto practical questions, as well as providing the profes-sional scientist, engineer, or value-added specialist,with a mechanism for manipulating, merging, process-ing, and modelling data to achieve specialised prod-ucts.The data management system is also an essentialtool for assessing, designing, managing and up-gradingGOOS. To these ends, the development of DMACmust be coordinated with the development of theobserving and modelling subsystems to ensure thatthere are no delays in achieving operational status.

This chapter sets for a framework and guidelines forthe establishment of such an integrated DMAC sys-tem. It aims to raise awareness of important datamanagement issues. Mechanisms are recommendedfor establishing,maintaining and assessing the observ-ing system; and guidelines are provided for capacitybuilding in data management and communication.

6.2 BACKGROUND

The interface with the coastal module of GOOS formost users will occur through the data managementand communications system. Contributors of data

should be able to transmit data into the system with aminimum obligation to convert their data to special-ized data formats or re-structuring of data sets, provid-ed basic conditions of data quality and metadata stan-dards are met.While it may be possible to provide a sin-gle portal for data users for one-stop access, this willinevitably be a simplified front end for the data man-agement system that supports all the GOOS activitiesin the coastal ocean. Local access points will tend tofocus first on national or regional (GRA) data sourcesand models for coastal waters in their vicinity. A cen-tralised access point which is suitable for all types ofcustomers, requesting data from any coast in the world,and designed to a common standard, may itself be anunattainable ideal. It is more likely that such a contactpoint will direct the user to other more specialized orregional product delivery centres, or would be restrict-ed to a limited number of variables.The constructionof specialized customer-related access points can thenbe carried out by delegated teams of experts whoknow the needs of different customers define the usersoftware which is most suited to them.

Previous chapters have shown that the data manage-ment services needed to support the many facets ofactivity in the Coastal Ocean are themselves complex(Figure 6.1). In the open ocean, globally, and for theterrestrial hinterland, there will be adjacent serviceswhich provide boundary conditions and long-termforecasts. These services include the data manage-ment system for GCOS, the ocean component ofGOOS, OOPC, and the data services of GTOS onland. Each GOOS Regional Alliance (GRA) willdevelop its own data services, and individual agen-cies, laboratories, and commercial organizations mayprovide additional special products in this context.GRA coastal services will interface with global datasystems for GOOS.


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6. Data Management and Communications Subsystem

GRAs

GCOS

GTOS

The data management system will provide facilitiesfor two data tracks, one in real-time (or near-real-time) and one in delayed mode. Both tracks may bebased on the same data sources and transmission sys-tems, but the data follow different routes and areprocessed differently depending on user requirements(Figure 6.2). The delayed mode track may alsoinvolve data from measurements that take time tocomplete. Real-time data transmission implies thatmeasurements are made automatically and transmit-ted to users within minutes to hours for nowcasts andtimely forecasts (before the phenomena havechanged beyond the limits of predictability, seeChapter 5). Where a process changes slowly, datadelivery may take longer. Near-real-time implies a

delay in data processing, usually of days to months, sothat the user receives a higher quality product, andone that is valuable for management or understand-ing of the process, but is too late to use as a forecast.Delayed mode data can be processed to the highestlevels of quality control, analysed for errors, checkedfor long-term stability and consistency of trends, andarchived for long-term use. This process may takemonths to years.

The real-time track will transmit data in an automat-ed way to modelling centres so that data can beincorporated in models which provide nowcasts andforecasts, as described in Chapter 5. Rapid transmis-sion of data is essential if the products described in


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Figure 6.1. Functional components of the Data Management and Communication System for the coastal module of GOOS.(Modified from the OCEAN.US, 2002, p. 85).

Shipdata

Qualitycontrol

Datadiscovery

NODCData

archiveIODE

Data setaggregation

Webserver

Productgeneration

& modelling

Satellitedata

Webbrowser

Webbrowser

Analysisprogram

ATMOSData

system

LandData

system

USERS

Regionalobservation

systems

SYSTEM COMPONENTS

Observation subsystem

Data & communication

Cooperating

Other data systems

Chapter 5 are to be generated.This capability existsin only a few regions and is currently limited tometeorological and physical data.The delayed modetrack provides the highest level of data quality con-trol.The real-time data and model products can alsobe checked after first use for up-grading and addi-tional quality control to ensure that all relevant dataare preserved for final archival. Similarly, climatic dataand standardised anomalies and statistics can be pro-vided to the modellers from the archived data andtime series in order to compute expected values andanomalies.

This pattern of different rates of data delivery is sta-ble, economic, and efficient. It is stable because thereis an inevitable trade-off between speed of delivery,latency, and the ability to carry out the most detailedquality control, or process the most difficult datatypes.Thus the data presented to real-time modellerscomprises a limited range of variables, (at presentmostly physical variables), and the accuracy may berestricted, while some observations have to be dis-carded because of suspected errors which could be

corrected given more time. Nevertheless, the value ofprocessing data in time to make forecasts is such thatit is worth accepting these limitations.

Given more time, the same data from the sameinstruments can be checked more exhaustively, mar-ginal data can be corrected and included in the dataset, and extra error-checking procedures can be run,sometimes depending upon the availability of otherdata types, or instrument recalibration.The enhancedaccuracy is valuable, because long-term data sets andtime-series used to detect climate variability and cli-mate change must not include avoidable randomerrors or statistical bias.Also, instrumental data whichcannot yet be automated, including many chemicaland biological parameters, can be included in delayedmode archives.As instrumentation improves it shouldbe possible to include more of these variables in thereal-time data track. This approach to data manage-ment is economic and efficient, because the samesuite of instrumentation, and the same data transmis-sion technology, provides both the real time and thedelayed mode data.


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Figure 6.2. Diagram of tracks for real-time and delayed mode data flow from instrumentation to user (fromAlan Edwards, personnal communication).

Effective coordination will be a high priority indeveloping the system. Collaboration and coopera-tion among data providers will be facilitated, sothat data products conform as far as possible toGOOS norms and standards.Well-defined methodsof data collection, data formats and data archiving,as well as data exchange practices must be estab-lished, along with methods for controlling andassuring the quality of these data and meta-data.

6.3 DATA POLICY

The coastal GOOS data policy will be consistentwith the GOOS design principles, the IOC datapolicy (IOC Resolution I.9, 1961), and the policyof free exchange of meteorological data (at the costof retrieval only) of World Weather Watch andWMO (WMO Resolution 40), and the data prin-ciples established by JCOMM. Accordingly, thecoastal GOOS data policy will be based on the fol-lowing guidelines:

• Full and open sharing and exchange of coastalGOOS relevant data and products for all usersin a timely manner at the lowest possible cost.

• Archival preservation of all coastal GOOSdata, through the existing system of IODE datacentres and WDCs. If no suitable data centreexists for a specific set of data, such centresshould be established.

• As part of the end-to-end data and informa-tion framework, all coastal GOOS data setsshould have one or more designated custodi-ans, who have the capacity and responsibilityfor long-term data archival, and provision ofdata access as required, as well as for generatingselected sets of standard products.

• Where appropriate, real time data managementat the local and regional scales can be provid-ed by government agencies with statutoryresponsibility for the maintenance of coastalsafety, fisheries, and the control of pollution.Data procedures to be established by JCOMM,with data then transferred to the global archivesystem.

The coastal GOOS data management and commu-nications system will be implemented in a mannerconsistent with that of GOOS (IOC, 2001). Clear-ly, development of the global coastal network of

GOOS depends on the coordinated developmentof GRAs and the establishment of data manage-ment procedures consistent with the GOOS datapolicy.

6.4 ORGANIZATION

The initial data management and communicationsystem will grow in an incremental way by linkingand integrating existing national and internationalcommunication networks and data managementprogrammes. Several end-to-end systems maydevelop, each contributing one or more data typesand providing data to other parts of the global sys-tem as required. Each of these systems is likely toinvolve several organizations with varying expertiseand emphasis. The great challenge will be toachieve a constructive balance between bottom-upand top-down development on a global scale. Thedevelopment of the coastal module faces manychallenges that are not addressed by existing bod-ies, but for which existing practices may apply.

6.4.1 Existing Infrastructure and Expertise

Implementing and improving an integrated DMACsystem for the coastal module will depend on theinvolvement of existing data management compo-nents and the development of new ones.Two exist-ing organizations have the potential to give signif-icant support to coastal GOOS, the IOC Commit-tee on IODE and the programme area on datamanagement of JCOMM. In addition, there aremany regional programmes with well-establisheddata management activities that could be of con-siderable benefit to coastal GOOS (Figure 6.3).However, international (and often national) mech-anisms are generally lacking for most types of geo-logical, chemical, biological and ecological data.Anappropriate mechanism must be established thatwill enable coordination and collaboration amongthese programmes to achieve the goal of an inte-grated DMAC system that manages both real-timeand delayed mode data streams.


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93

Figure 6.3. Example of a regional data management system for a GRA that is entirely within the coastal domain, The Baltic Operational Oceanographic System (Buch and Dahlin, 2000).

GRAPHICAL USER

OCEANOGRAPHIC KNOWLEDGE AND DATA BASE

Authentication layer

Authorisation layer

Billing layer

Expert system for data production and delivery

File preparation/search Image preparation/search Product preparation/search

Specialdata

delivery

(e.g. S57formatted datafo navigation

purposes,HELCOM

assessments)

FTP datadelivery

(file transfer)

Remoteinformation

kiosks

Fax andphone

telecom-munication

services

WWWfile

transfer

Formdatabaseaccess

On-lineJAVA

applets(e.g. on-linespill models,

on-line database

interfaces,interactive

maps)

Graphs Maps

WWW data and product delivery

USER

LAYER

PROVIDER

LAYER

Graphical dataand product

display

Productionschemes

ProductsMeasuringnetwork

Measured datawarehouses

Organisation,authentication,

authorisation andbilling database

Scientific ideasR&D

ModelsModelled data

warehouses

Production tools

Interagency data exchange- distributed data gateway

Scheme of the Info-BOOS - the BOOS’s information system.

Universal data/algorithm transfer protocol

to user layer

For a significant range of data sets related to the fieldsof meteorology and physical oceanography, the exist-ing data management and communication structuresof the World Weather Watch of the WMO, theJCOMM, and the IOC Committee on IODE couldbe adapted to include the requirements of coastalGOOS.However, there are problems arising from thepresent terms of reference and existing expertise inIODE and JCOMM. IODE has extensive experi-

ence with all data types (physical, chemical, geologi-cal, biological, and ecological) but is primarily con-cerned with data archival and delayed mode dissem-ination. IODE data typically take several months toseveral years to reach archival centres. In addition,data obtained by governmental pollution manage-ment agencies, fisheries agencies, navigationalauthorities, coastal defence agencies, and meteoro-logical offices are not usually handled by IODE.


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The International Oceanographic Data and Informa-tion Exchange (IODE) System was established in 1961to “enhance marine research, exploration and devel-opment by facilitating the exchange of oceanographicdata and information between participating MemberStates”. Recognizing that the best approach to achiev-ing this objective is through a network of data centresdistributed among the member countries, the IODEprogramme is built on (1) Designated National Agen-cies (DNAs) that assist with data exchange; (2) Nation-al Oceanographic Data Centres (NODCs) that inter-face with data providers within their respective coun-tries, archive data and provide access to data; and (3)Responsible NODCs (RNODCs), that, in addition totheir NODC functions,provide specialised services forspecific data types. Successful implementation of thecoastal module of GOOS would require enhancingthis network through a variety of mechanisms such as:(a) establishing NODCs in countries that do not haveone and will be acquiring large volumes of data, (b)through modernisation to facilitate more timely accessto integrated data sets and products, and (c) throughprovision of NODC services to other countries thatdo not have and have no plans to establish NODCs.

Joint Technical Commission for Oceanographyand Marine Meterorology

From the JCOMM Terms of Reference:

Implementation of data management systemsDevelopment and implementation, in cooperationwith the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS), theCommittee for International Oceanographic Dataand Information Exchange (IODE), the Interna-tional Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and

other appropriate data management bodies, end-to-end data management systems to meet the real-timeoperational needs of the present operational systemsand the global observing systems; cooperation withthese bodies in seeking commitments for operationof the necessary national compilation, quality con-trol, and analysis centres to implement data flowsnecessary for users at time scales appropriate to theirneeds.

Delivery of products and servicesProvision of guidance, assistance and encouragementfor the national and international analysis centres, incooperation with other appropriate bodies, to prepareand deliver data products and services needed by theinternational science and operational programmes,Members of WMO, and Members States of IOC.Monitoring of the use of observations and derivedproducts and suggesting changes to improve quality.Coordination of the safety-related marine meteoro-logical and associated oceanographic services as anintegral part of the Global Maritime Distress and Safe-ty System of the International Convention for theSafety of Life at Sea (SOLAS).

Assistance in the documentation and management of the data in international systemsDevelopment of co-operative arrangements with thedata management bodies of IOC, ICSU, and WMO,such as IODE, the Commission of Climatology (CCI)and the ICSU World Data Centres to provide forcomprehensive data sets (comprising both real-timeand delayed mode data) with a high level of qualitycontrol, long term documentation and archival of thedata, as required to meet the needs of secondary usersof the data for future long term studies.

BOX 6.1. IODE

IODE possesses the expertise to manage many of thenon-physical data types, but captures only a limitedproportion of the data generated and manages thosedata in delayed mode.The marine components of thenational meteorological offices represented inJCOMM have extremely sophisticated methodolo-gies for obtaining and processing meteorological andphysical variables in real time, but have very littleexperience with non-physical variables. Further-more, the combined skills of the international mete-orological and oceanographic communities workingjointly in JCOMM functions well in the open oceanwhere the required spatial scales of resolution arecoarse (> 10 km) relative to coastal waters (< 1 km).In coastal waters a much broader spectrum of vari-ability must be captured and the relevant scales differdepending on both location and the phenomena ofinterest.Thus, there are serious challenges and gaps inthe international institutional structures for datamanagement for coastal waters that must be over-come in the design and implementation of thecoastal module.

In some regions these institutional problems havebeen partially solved at national and local levels, sincegovernment agencies have statutory obligations toprocess data from multiple sources to meet practicaloperational goals such as water quality management,or control of coastal erosion (e.g., Buch and Dahlin,2000; Droppert et al., 2001). Nevertheless, thisprocess of piece-meal local development will lead toa non-standard mosaic of mini-systems that will pro-hibit rapid data and information exchange. This isprecisely what coastal GOOS seeks to avoid.Although the goals of coastal GOOS data manage-ment are clear, the institutional and organizationalstructure at the international level is still not wellsuited for coastal observations of non-physical vari-ables. These problems should be analysed and pre-pared carefully for presentation to the second meet-ing of JCOMM, with the objective of agreeing onsolutions.

New approaches and technologies will be neededbecause of the multiplicity of data sources and datatypes, the multiplicity of users and their varyingneeds, and the overarching concerns of quality assur-ance, timeliness, and ease of access to data and dataproducts. Historically programmes were developedindependently by different groups to address specific

issues and mission-based goals. Most of the globaldatabases have been developed for physical data, butglobal databases for non-physical variables are begin-ning to emerge.The Ocean Biogeographic Informa-tion System (OBIS) of the Census of Marine Life(CoML) is an important example. CoML is an inter-national science programme to assess and explain thediversity, distribution, and abundance of life in theoceans. OBIS will provide a global information por-tal where systematic, genetic, ecological and environ-mental information on marine species can be cross-searched, and where these interconnected sources ofinformation can be integrated into value-addedproducts such as derived data, maps and models.Thegoals of OBIS are to:

• Energize regional, national and internationalscale development of ocean biogeographic andsystematic databases;

• Foster collaboration and interoperability by pro-moting standards for technology, storage, docu-mentation, and transfers;

• Advance integrated biological and oceanograph-ic research by supporting a multidisciplinaryocean information portal; and

• Speed the dissemination of and public access toocean biogeographic information while appro-priately addressing the issue of intellectual prop-erty rights.

OBIS will be a global network of databases of oceangeospatial survey data, synoptic ocean environmentaldata, and species-specific data (taxonomy, specimen,DNA sequences, etc.).The distributed system of datawill be accessible through the OBIS informationportal and software tools for searching, data acquisi-tion, mapping and analysis will be built and madeavailable to the whole community. OBIS will devel-op and promote technology standards to achieve anoptimal level of interoperability among its members.OBIS will seek to grow in concert with GBIF andbecome a major tool for ocean biogeography andsystematics. OBIS databases include the following:

• Fishnet distributed biodiversity information sys-tem,

• Development of a dynamic BIS for the Gulf ofMaine,

• Biogeoinformatics of Hexacorallia (corals, seaanemones, and their relatives),


95

• Expansion of CephBase as a biological proto-type for OBIS,

• Biotic database of Indo-Pacific marine mol-luscs,

• ZooGene, a DNA sequence database forcalanoid copepods and euphausids,

• Diel, seasonal, and interannual patterns in zoo-plankton and micronekton species composi-tion in the subtropical Atlantic, and

• Census of marine fishes.

URLs for these databases can be found in Annex IX.

6.4.2 Data Management Clusters at Different Spatial Scales

Most users of GOOS data and information reside inthe coastal zone where the effects of global climatechange and land-use practices in coastal drainagebasins play out on local to regional scales in terms ofa broad range of phenomena. The challenge then isto develop an integrated DMAC system that acquiresand serves diverse data and information on local toglobal scales.The proposed solution is to manage datain distributed clusters at the local, national/regional,and global levels (Figure 6.4).

Such an approach is a pragmatic response to thescale problem. In this scheme, many components ofthe system (Figure 6.1) and the two data tracks(Figure 6.2) can occur at any cluster level (Table6.1).

• Local clusters consist of organizations that col-lect, process, and assure the quality of the data.They will also be responsible for data dissemi-nation and, in some cases, local data archival.The local network will provide the infrastruc-ture for transferring data and data products viathe web, or otherwise as appropriate. In thecoastal context, there are a large number ofsuch organizations, with widely differingcapacities.There may be cases where an organ-ization is collecting coastal GOOS data sets, butis not able to perform some of the functionsoutlined above. In such cases, mechanismsshould be identified that will enable sustainedparticipation, e.g., through capacity building orby providing the means to communicate datato a site that has the above capabilities. In allcases, quality assurance is the responsibility ofthe data provider.

• National and Regional clusters are the firstlevel in which diverse data types from many dif-

ferent sources are collated and forwhich additional quality assurance andcontrol (QA/QC) occurs. For themost part, these data managementorganizations will not themselves beresponsible for the development ofdata-products. However, the data man-agement subsystem must be designedto be responsive to user needs. Thiswill be an evolving process in whichexperience and new knowledge resultsin more and better products. Datamanagement at this cluster level willinvolve coordination of both real-timeand delayed mode data tracks, and thecombination of data inputs from manydifferent research organizations andgovernment operational agencies withstatutory obligations in the coastalzone. In particular, oceanographic,meteorological, environmental andnatural resource agencies will have tocollaborate closely. Many products


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Figure 6.4. Clusters of data management

required to meet user requirements can be gener-ated and distributed at this level by transmittingdata rapidly to appropriate analysis and servicecentres. For those countries that do not haveNODCs, a national coordinator for coastalGOOS data management should be designated todevelop procedures for performing these func-tions (e.g., identify Responsible Local Centres,work with existing NODCs or with global Cen-tres). One centre in a national or regional clustermay be designated as a “lead centre” that isresponsible for reporting chronic data qualityproblems to the Global Steering Committee asthe first step in resolving problems of data quali-ty. This function may also be performed by aglobal centre.

• Global Data Management and Synthesis Cen-tres are needed to provide a global context forlocal and regional scale variability and change,

to serve key regions, and to address key issues.Such centres would become the buildingblocks of a global network of data manage-ment and synthesis centres, the functions ofwhich would be coordinated by a GlobalSteering Committee. The World Oceano-graphic Data Centres (WDCs) established byICSU provide one model that could be used toguide the development of infrastructure, poli-cies and procedures for the dissemination andmanagement of coastal GOOS data. Addition-al systems, perhaps developed under the aus-pices of JCOMM, are needed to manage real-time global data sets and the distribution ofglobal coastal data products. The responsibili-ties of the existing centres (Figure 6.5) mayhave to be expanded and additional centresdeveloped to cover the full range of variablesunder coastal GOOS.


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Figure 6.5. Existing data centres under IOC/ICSU.

At all stages of data management there should bestrong scientific oversight to advise on the following:

• analysis and quality control techniques,• meta-data requirements for understanding and

interpreting the data,• time frames for delivering the data, and• data sets and data products required at the vari-

ous stages of the data flow.

Ease of access to integrated data is important. Data,data products and information will be managed usinga highly distributed system involving many organiza-tions, databases, and clients spread globally. Thecoastal module of GOOS will make use of the Glob-al Observing System Information Centre (GOSIC),designed to serve as a single entry point for users ofthe G3OS data and information, supplemented asnecessary at local, national and global levels.

Experience with distributed data systems has demon-strated the need for strong coordination to ensurehigh-level performance. It would be the combinedresponsibility of JCOMM and IODE to provide suchcoordination, and particularly to:

• Monitor, analyse, and report on the data flowswith the help of automated systems and dataflow information in digital form provided byparticipating centres.

• Specify data flow monitoring products that arenecessary to automate the data flow monitoringfunction and work with the participating centresto effect their implementation.

• Facilitate the work of science panels in develop-ing a comprehensive set of products by identify-ing potential data products that are already beingmade available by centres and making recom-mendations to the appropriate panel for theirconsideration for GOOS products.

• Provide informational documents to be madeavailable through GOSIC and other organiza-tions.

6.4.3 Data Archives

Permanent archival of all data is an essential componentof data management. Final archives need to be identi-fied for all GOOS data sets as part of the implementa-tion plan for each GOOS project. Scientific panelsshould identify the meta-data that is to be collected and


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LOCAL CLUSTER

• sustained collection of data on oneor more common variables and vari-ables measured as part of regionalenhancements;

• quality assurance and quality controlof the data;

• provision of network access to datasets in a time frame that is appropri-ate to the application, real-time anddelayed mode;

• provision of network access to com-prehensive meta-data for all data setscollected by participating organiza-tions; and

• timely delivery of data sets, andassociated meta-data, to designatednational/regional centres in the datamanagement structure.

NATIONAL/REGIONAL CLUSTER

• actively seek and acquire qualitycontrolled data from local andnational sources;

• develop and implement QA/QCprocedures based on internationalstandards;

• effect the exchange of data ofknown quality in real-time anddelayed mode;

• inventory and archive qualitycontrolled data in accordancewith international standards andprotocols; and

• timely dissemination of data,data products and information asappropriate

GLOBAL CLUSTER

• collate data from National/RegionalCentres and directly from marineand coastal science organizationsand individual scientists;

• establish international data stan-dards and exchange protocols forreal-time and delayed mode;

• monitor the performance of theinternational data exchange systemand report their findings to theGlobal Steering Committee and theIOC Secretariat;

• establish global databases;• enable problem-specific data syn-

thesis;• establish online services to provide

data and data-products to users; and• provide an information directory of

products and services.

Table 6.1. Functions performed by the organizations in each cluster

stored with the data in the archives. As a minimum, apermanent archive generally must agree to:

• accept the data and all available supportingmeta-data,

• store the data either in their original form or ina form from which all the original data andmeta-data can be recovered,

• refresh or update the medium on which the dataand meta-data are stored so that both are read-able in the future, and

• provide the data and all supporting meta-data tousers on request, free of charge, or at the cost ofreproduction.

6.4.4 Data Management Infrastructure

The three-cluster, hierarchical approach to data man-agement proposed above will require infrastructuredevelopment.At the national and regional level, goodcommunication should be established among institu-tions and countries, to facilitate cooperation and tomake maximum use of existing facilities. Communi-cation channels might need to be established via aformal structure or agreement. GRAs will play animportant role in liaison among interested parties.


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To detect and predict changes in coastal marine andestuarine ecosystems, there is a great need to capturein detail their baseline physical, geological, chemical,and biological properties. In these regards, three relat-ed developments now enable oceanographic researchand the management of marine ecosystems andresources with an unprecedented degree of realism:enhanced observational capabilities, improved numer-ical models, and effective methods for linking observa-tions to models. However, many aspects of these activ-ities are severely limited by the information technolo-gy infrastracture (ITI).A requirement of the GOOS, isthe development of fast and reliable data links to assurerapid delivery of ocean observations to operationalcentres and scientists. in situ and remote sensing haveincreased the volume of data required for detectionand prediction by over two orders of magnitude in thelast 10 years.

Physical and ecological models for coastal ecosystemshave been developed and are beginning to show rea-sonable skill (See for example, Moll and Radach,2001).These models in themselves are costly in termsof IT requirements (computing power,network speed,etc.).When they are linked via data assimilation to data

streams for the purpose of operational, real-time fore-casts, their IT requirements increase dramatically. Forexample, a single 4-day forecast cycle of currents, tem-perature and salinity at a single location using anensemble-based assimilation technique, requires about100 cpu hours on an advanced parallel computer andthe transfer of 10 gigabytes of data. Scaling up such asystem on a global scale and the incorporation ofchemical and biological variables will increase ITrequirements by several orders of magnitude.The ITIrequirements for GOOS are expected to demandabout 1,000 times the current capacity over the next 5to 10 years.The most critical bottlenecks will be in theavailability of CPU cycles, memory and mass-storagecapacity, and network bandwidth. Significant chal-lenges in software development also exist. Theseinclude re-engineering models and data assimilationpackages to make more efficient use of massively par-allel computers; the requirement for significantadvances in visualization techniques to translateincreasing volume of data and model output; and theneed for well- designed, documented and tested com-munity models of all types. Finally, exacerbating thesechallenges is the extreme shortage of skilled ITI tech-nical personnel.

BOX 6.2.THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

GRAs have already faced the necessity of providingrapid, often real-time, communications between awide range of agencies. The GRAs which havedeveloped most rapidly tend to be those formedaround semi-enclosed seas, and therefore they have

learned to process data which matches closely therequirements of COOP. The full range of agenciesworking in a semi-enclosed sea such as the Baltic,Mediterranean, or Japan Sea, includes the Meteoro-logical Offices, Navies, Charting agencies, Ministries

of Ports, Fisheries, Environmental Protection,Tourism, Oil and Gas exploitation, etc., and theyhave needs for the kind of products from numericalmodels described in Chapter 5. By combining accessto data sets which are transmitted in real time, and byvarious schemes of real-time automated dataexchange and data access between agencies, it hasproved feasible to assemble common data sets forprocessing in models (Figure 6.3). Examples are thestorm surge and sea level models of the North Sea(NOOS), wind wave and sea ice models in the Baltic(BOOS), and 3-dimensional predictions of tempera-ture-salinity fields in the Mediterranean (MFS).

Redundancy should be built into the data manage-ment subsystem, e.g., by using mirror data sites andby executing the same models at different computingcentres. However, it is likely that infrastructure willbe deficient in many regions at the local and nation-al level and capacity building will be required.Capacity-building initiatives must be preceded bycareful planning to ensure that all elements of thesubsystem are sustainable in terms of the requiredlocal human and financial resources. Some elementsof planned redundancy could be used to developcapacity off site, in partnership with institutions orcountries where the local circumstances do not cur-rently favour a full membership in any of the clusters.

The primary communications tool for coastalGOOS will be the Internet. However, in manycountries Internet communications are poor, or areprohibitively expensive. Until Internet communica-tion is globally feasible for the data management andcommunication subsystem, provision must be madefor the possibility of transferring data and informa-tion via other media.

6.5 STANDARDS

6.5.1 QA/QC and Metadata

Ideally, observations should be unambiguous meas-ures of the target variables. Measurements made bydifferent laboratories, programmes, and governmentsmust be directly comparable, irrespective of whereand when they were made, and sufficiently preciseand accurate to detect and predict change. Althoughmodels can integrate observations and fill gaps intime and space in principle, model outputs will be

compromised by input data that are of variable qual-ity. Differences in quality can be avoided by adoptingcommon standards for measurements and can beaccommodated for modelling if measurements oferror are included with observations.

The development of QA/QC procedures for coastalGOOS must meet the following requirements:

• Measurements are made by well-trained andmotivated personnel who understand how thedata are to be used;

• The sampling programme is designed to providedata that are representative of the variables sampled(in both time and space) and to ensure that theappropriate meta-data accompany each sample;

• Instruments are routinely calibrated againstauthentic reference standards; and

• QC and recorded meta-data documentationmust be applied to the successive stages of datatransmission, merging, and analysis.

Meta-data should include information such as envi-ronmental conditions under which samples were col-lected, measurements made that are needed to inter-pret the data, and sampling and analysis techniques.Those responsible for making measurements shouldregularly participate in inter-calibration and inter-comparison exercises and should be willing to sub-ject their sampling and measurement procedures toexternal vetting.

There will be a requirement for developing a varietyof software to meet the required data processing andQA/QC standards. One could follow the example ofGTSPP and partition this task among a group of vol-unteer data centres.This will reduce duplication andensure consistency and adherence to standards. Allsoftware and procedures must be documented.

A QA/QC plan should be developed for each vari-able measured as part of coastal GOOS.These plansshould specify standards for short-term accuracy andlong-term stability. For standards to be used, thereneeds to be broad-based agreement on what thestandards should be.

In some cases data quality might be difficult toimprove in the short term and it may not be possiblefor standards to be followed.These data should nev-


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ertheless be included as part of the data base, butshould be flagged. Manuals that describe materialsand methods should be routinely published, but itshould not be necessary to prescribe the precisemethod of measurement.This flexibility should makeit possible for more countries to participate, andshould encourage the development of improvedmethods. QA/QC plans should include inter-cali-bration and inter-comparison exercises for each vari-able as well as procedures for validation and verifica-tion. In this regard, numerical modelling can be aneffective tool for quality control by providing themeans to test for internal consistency of complex sys-tems (e.g., mass balance of material flows amongecosystem components and pool size of each com-ponent). Differences between first estimate predic-tions and observations made at several intervals overtime can also provide a sensitive test for biases, cali-bration drift and outliers.

6.5.2 Real-time and Delayed Modes

Atmospheric forecasters have known for many yearsthat trade-offs must be made between timely accessto data and its quality. The same will be true formarine forecasters. Some users will need to sacrificesome data quality in exchange for quicker delivery ofproducts, whereas others can afford to wait longer forhigh quality data. For example, models that predictthe coastal signature of ENSO events might usemany sources of variable quality data to provide reli-able early warnings, whereas climate research modelsmight need high quality data, but without urgency.Different models could require the same data on thesame variable (e.g. sea surface temperature), but withdifferent constraints regarding quality and real-timeversus delayed mode access.

Under current conditions, detecting and modellingchanges in marine ecosystems are retrospective activ-ities (hindcasting) that can take months or even years.Biological and chemical variables are typically vari-able in space and time and their measurement is oftena time-consuming, labour-intensive process thatrequires the collection of samples and subsequentprocessing in the laboratory (i.e., they cannot bedetected in real time). Nevertheless, while most phys-ical variables can be regarded as "mature" in theworld of data management and modelling, and mostbiogeochemical variables are not "mature", present

research is resulting in a steady improvement in theability to make real-time and near-real-time ecosys-tem forecasts and analyses. Such rapid analyses ofmarine biogeochemical processes are valuable inforecasting harmful algal blooms (HAB), manage-ment of fish-farms and shell-fish-farms, public healthregarding bathing waters, and the management ofestuarine pollution. The gradual improvement andcalibration of ecosystem models through long-termtrials is an exciting frontier in coastal oceanography(Moll and Radach, 2001).

Where these observations are linked to research pro-grammes, there can also be difficulties in accessingthe data in a timely fashion because of issues of own-ership. However, one- or two-year lags between sam-ple collection and nowcasts may be acceptable whenecological changes have long time scales (e.g.,declines in seagrass beds caused by nutrient enrich-ment, decadal scale oscillations in fish populations)and mitigation measures are likely to take years torealize their effects.

6.5.3 Related Activities

Considerable effort has been invested elsewhere indefining standards and procedures. For example,WOCE and WMO standards (with recent modifica-tions as part of Argo and other programmes) exist forphysical variables, and JGOFS standards exist for cer-tain biological variables. Standards for data, meta-dataand instruments have been developed also underICES and regional GOOS programmes. It is to beexpected that much will be learned from the experi-ences of meteorologists in setting up the WorldWeather Watch and its global telecommunicationsystem.They have already had to face the problems oftimely access to data and its quality assurance andcontrol. Pilot projects such as GODAE (the GlobalOcean Data Assimilation Experiment) will be invalu-able in helping to establish guidelines for makingocean monitoring and prediction a routine activity ina manner similar to weather forecasting and will helpachieve the goals of GOOS.

6.6 DATA STREAMS

The diversity of data types that will be collected andapplied to the coastal zone is large. These willinclude, but not be limited to, observed data, derived


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data and data products, and predictions and modelleddata, along with appropriate meta-data. Data can beacquired from a large number of different sourcesincluding many that are not a part of GOOS. In thisregard, it is highly unlikely that every organization willchoose to use the same database software to managetheir data, so standard protocols for data exchange willbe needed which can be overlaid on both existing andfuture software packages. Where existing standardsexist, they should be used if possible.

Rapid access to data and data-products requires thatdata flows efficiently from instruments to end usersand, concurrently, to aggregation centres, modellingcentres and thence to users, as well as into distributedarchives for retrospective analysis and archival (Figure6.2).There is an immediate need to reduce the timerequired for these operations. Many phenomena ofinterest in the categories of marine services and pub-lic safety (e.g., harmful algal events, contamination ofa bathing beach) must be detected in near real-timeand predicted with sufficient lead time to be useful tousers of the marine environment and its resources(e.g., commercial shipping, search and rescue, fishers,recreational boaters, people living close to the coast).

The data formats and transfer methods will dependon the data type(s). Furthermore, the time frameassociated with ‘real-time’ and ‘delayed mode’ willdepend on the data type and application. The timeframe for data access will also vary. Consequently, it isimperative that coastal GOOS defines the time linefor each data type and explores existing data trans-mission techniques, using these as possible modelsand building blocks for developing the fully integrat-ed data management subsystem. GTS may be oneoption, but it is not an integrated system, and it maybe most effective to restrict the use of GTS for datarequired to make weather forecasts and issue warn-ings.

Moored sensor arrays for monitoring water quality,nutrients, suspended sediments, chlorophyll, andsome contaminants have been operated successfullyin automatic mode for several years in some coastalenvironments, and instrument suites are being devel-oped and tested for measuring similar variables onroutine repeated sections operated by commercialvessels in coastal waters. Such data sets, combinedwith the output from hydrodynamic models, and

supplemented by remote sensed data, provide theoptimistic basis to start trials of operational ecosystemmodelling and forecasting. Further research isrequired to extend the range of chemical variableswhich can be measured automatically without labo-ratory analysis, and to provide more rapid ways ofassessing biological parameters.

An important component of the data managementsubsystem will be to identify, secure and provideaccess to historical data sets that may be in danger ofloss or degradation of storage media, i.e., data archae-ology and rescue.This will be particularly importantfor coastal GOOS as many old data sets may still bein filing cabinets or on individual PCs instead ofbeing ‘managed’.

6.7 PROVIDING AND EVALUATING DATA

SERVICES

The coastal module of GOOS will not be thepanacea for all regional needs, and mechanisms areneeded to selectively incorporate existing nationaland international programmes, specify and developproducts and services, and to endure that the observ-ing system improves its capacity to meet the data andinformation needs of users. Development of the datamanagement and communications subsystem will bethe primary integrator of the observing system, the“life blood” of the system that links all of its compo-nents.Thus, the extent to which GOOS is able meetthe data and information requirements of its usercommunity will be critically dependent on the per-formance of the DMAC subsystem.

Performance evaluation must be an integral part ofthe implementation of coastal GOOS. Two impor-tant aspects of the data management subsystem aretimely access to and analysis of data. Data manage-ment must be maintained and upgraded to ensurecontinuity of the data streams and the routine provi-sion of high quality data and data-products. Proce-dures to monitor the quality of the data must occuras close to the data source as possible to ensure pre-cision and accuracy. The continuity of data streamsand access to data must also be monitored. Evalua-tion, maintenance and enhancements should occur atall levels in the DMAC subsystem, and proceduresmust be developed to ensure that information onquality and data flow is exchanged between each


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cluster in the hierarchy. Finally, as the observing sys-tem develops and matures, mechanisms should beestablished by which end users are able to providecritical feedback on the timeliness and quality of thedata and analyses provided. It will also be necessary tomodify and enhance the technology behind the data

subsystem as measurement programmes gain newtechnology, as hardware and software capabilitiesincrease, and as demands for new products and serv-ices evolve.As the system is built and a client-base isestablished, additional products and services will haveto be provided.


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7.1 GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

The global coastal network will develop through acombination of global, regional, and nationalprocesses. Linking operational elements that areglobal in scope and scaling up selected national andregional operational systems consistent with theGOOS Design Principles will not only requireguidance from user groups, it will require a highlevel of international coordination and collabora-tion to ensure the emergence of a global system(from measurements to data and product manage-ment) as national, regional and global scale ele-ments come on line. GOOS will evolve by improv-ing access to data and information in response touser needs; by increasing the resolution, durationand spatial extent of observations; and by incorpo-rating new technologies and models.To these ends,implementation of the coastal module must con-sider the following:

• Inputs of energy and matter to coastal ecosys-tems from atmospheric, oceanic and land-based sources must be quantified. Thus, thedevelopment of the coastal module must becoordinated with the OOPC, GCOS andGTOS.

• The integration of satellite-based and in situobservations must be coordinated with CEOS,the IOCCG, and other international bodies toimprove remote and in situ sensing capabilitiesfor detecting changes in biological and chem-ical properties and processes. As a part of thisprocess, the IGOS Ocean Theme report shouldbe up-dated and extended to include shallow,nearshore, and turbid coastal waters.

• Data management groups for the purposes ofweather prediction, improved marine services

and more efficient and safe marine operationshave evolved two parallel and interconnectedprocedures for processing meteorological andphysical oceanographic data. A procedure forprocessing real-time data with automatedquality control for numerical nowcasts andforecasts of the weather and surface marineconditions (temperature, currents, waves) and adelayed mode system for the highest levels ofaccuracy, archival and use in off-line modesand long-term climate predictions. Both sys-tems require major investment to increasecapacity for handling much larger volumes ofmore diverse data (biological, chemical andgeological variables), greater distribution ofmodel outputs, and rapid exchange of largevolumes of data between data centres.

• Many of the elements of a global coastal net-work are in place, and a user-driven (applica-tions) process is needed to selectively identifyand link existing operational systems that areglobal in scope and globalise (scale up) select-ed elements of national and regional observingsystems.

• Measurements and models must become oper-ational through mechanisms that promote andenable pre-operational testing, proof of con-cept pilot projects and research required todevelop an integrated system. Improving thecapacity for rapid detection of changes in bio-logical and chemical variables and developingoperational ecosystem-based models should bea high priority.

• Major investments in capacity building at alllevels will be needed to ensure that developingnations are able to benefit from and contributeto the observing system.


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7. Preliminary Guidelines for Implementation

All of these challenges must be addressed from thebeginning and, in so doing, must involve stake-holders from research, operational and user com-munities. A scientifically and technically soundapproach to implementation that is both feasibleand effective requires an iterative process thatengages all three groups in an ongoing dialogue toensure the development of a global system thatmeets national and regional requirements.

7.2 ESTABLISHING THE GLOBAL COASTAL

NETWORK

The global coastal network will come into beingby selectively linking existing global programmesand elements, by linking existing regional andnational programmes and elements, and by enhanc-ing and supplementing these over time. Theseactivities will be predicated on meeting userrequirements for sustained data streams and prod-ucts. The implementation will be phased asdescribed in Sections 3.2 and 7.3.

7.2.1 Data Sharing, Product Development and Marketing

The design and implementation of GOOS must beguided by the identification of user groups and thedata streams and products and model outputs theyrequire (Chapters 4 and 5; Fischer and Flemming,1999; Kite-Powell et al., 1994; NOAA-IOC, 1996;Stel and Mannix, 1997; Adams et al., 2000). Pro-duction, advertising and marketing data productsare essential to the development of broad user

demand and, therefore, to the development of theobserving system. GRAs and national GOOS pro-grammes provide the primary venue for productdevelopment which should begin with theexchange of existing data and information and col-laborative development of operational models. His-torical data and ongoing data streams exist in largenumbers, but many are not now readily accessibleto potential users. Current marketing and outreachtools include the GOOS Products and ServicesBulletin (http://ioc.unesco.org/gpsbulletin/) andthe JCOMM Bulletin.These Bulletins report prod-ucts and product development activities and pro-vide a means for user feedback on the quality andusefulness of GOOS products. As useful as thesebulletins are, the establishment of user forums forproduct development and user feedback by GRAsshould be a high priority for implementing anddeveloping the coastal module.

Opportunities to market products and to assess userrequirements also involve collaboration with spe-cific user communities such as the InternationalMaritime Organization (IMO), the World HealthOrganization (WHO), the World Tourism Organi-zation (WTO), and the International Ocean Insti-tute (IOI). In addition, the private sector can beexpected to play an important role in productdevelopment and marketing. As is the case foratmospheric products, private firms will assess userneeds and will employ the available data and infor-mation to produce value-added products for thoseusers, thus adding economic benefit to the observ-ing system.


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Integrated coastal area management of the environ-ment and living resources depends on the ability torepeatedly assess and anticipate changes in the status ofcoastal ecosystems and living resources on national toglobal scales. Efforts to provide such assessmentsincreased dramatically during the 1990s (Parris, 2000).Examples are the Global Environmental Outlook pro-duced by UNEP (www.unep.org/unep/eia/geo1),reports of the World Resources Institute(www.wri.org/), including the Pilot Analysis of Glob-al Ecosystems (www.wri.org/wr2000; a precursor tothe Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: www.millen-niumassessment.org/en/index.htm), and the State ofthe Nation’s Ecosystems produced by the Heinz Cen-ter under the auspices of the U.S. Office of Scienceand Technology (O’Malley and Wing, 2000). Theseattempts (which are ongoing) reveal that the datarequired to compute quantitative indicators on nation-al and global scales are generally difficult to acquire,inadequate, or nonexistent. Results of both PAGE andthe U.S. effort lead to the following conclusion:

If assessments of the status of coastal ecosystems andresources are to be quantitative and comprehensive,and if they are to be repeated in a timely fashion fordecision makers and the public at regular intervals,major improvements are needed in the kinds, quality

and quantity of data collected and in the efficiencywith which data are disseminated, managed, andanalysed.

The most important problems that require immediateattention are as follows:

• inefficient data management systems that do notprovide rapid, user-driven access to diverse datafrom disparate sources;

• lack of standards and protocols for measurements,data exchange, and data management;

• undersampling (insufficient resolution in timeand space to estimate distributions of key proper-ties and processes with statistical certainty);

• lack of spatially and temporally synoptic observa-tions of key physical, chemical and biologicalvariables;

• lack of operational models for rapidly assimilatingand analysing data.

The coastal module of GOOS is being designed toaddress these problems. One of the more importantproducts that the coastal module will make possible isscientifically credible, quantitative, routine and period-ic assessments of the status of coastal ecosystems onregional to global scales.

BOX 7.1. DEVELOPING A USER BASE:THE CASE OF INTEGRATED COASTAL AREA

MANAGEMENT


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(1) Water Levels for Coastal Managers:Water lev-els may vary because of tides, storm surges, waveheights, and secular changes in sea level. Each of thesemay act independently or in concert.All of these vari-ables can be monitored, modelled, and predicted. Toimprove the control and mitigation of coastal flooding(especially from storm surges), coastal managers needto know how water levels may vary along a particularstretch of coast on seasonal and inter-annual timescales. Much of the same information will also berequired by the local managers of ports and the ship-ping industry for controlling access to ships (load-ing/unloading) and estimating the maximum tonnageof cargo ships are able to load based on predictions ofwater depth.

(2) Surface Currents,Wave Heights and Sea Icefor Offshore Oil Exploration and Extraction:Thedevelopment of oil and gas fields in deep water andunder Arctic conditions within national EEZsdemands increasingly accurate forecasts of surface cur-rents, vertical current profiles, wave heights and sea iceto improve the efficiency and safety of operations.Pre-dicting current profiles and the total impact of currentson moorings, drill strings, and submerged equipmentis one of the oil industries highest priorities. Increas-ingly, oil production will use well-heads that are on orunder the seabed, but estimates of maximum waveheight will still be required where production takesplace from platforms, and ice forecasts for the longerterm will be essential in polar regions. Required vari-ables for forecasting include, wave height, ice dynam-ics, and surface and subsurface current velocities.

(3) Dissolved Oxygen for Environmental Protec-tion (water quality management): Increases innutrient pollution from anthropogenic sources overthe last 50 years has caused an increase in the volumeof coastal bottom waters that becomes seasonallyhypoxic or anoxic in coastal marine and estuarineecosystems that are affected by river discharge. Con-trolling nutrient loading from land-based sources (e.g.,fertilizers, animal wastes, sewage discharge) and mini-mizing the areal and temporal extent of bottom wateroxygen depletion requires coupled drainage basinhydrolic, coastal hydrodynamic, and nutrient dynamic

models that can be used to evaluate the efficacy ofnutrient management decisions and predict theimpacts of different scenarios of land-use practices.Required variables for prediction include fresh waterand nutrient fluxes associated with river flow (surfacerunoff) and ground water discharge, vector winds,water level, incident radiation, water temperature, andchlorophyll concentrations.

(4) Rapid Detection and Prediction of HarmfulAlgal Blooms: The incidence of harmful algalblooms (HABs) appears to be increasing in coastalwaters.The primary issues of concern are (1) protect-ing public health and water quality (paralytic shellfishpoisoning,diarrhetic shellfish poisoning,amnesic shell-fish poisoning, neurotoxic shellfish poisoning, and res-piratory irritation and skin lesions in swimmers andbeach goers), (2) effects on aquaculture production(e.g., shellfish bed closures, mass mortalities, contami-nation), (3) economic impacts (minimize or preventdeclines in revenues from fisheries, aquaculture,tourism; decreases in property value), and (4) the dis-semination of useful information to the public. Thefollowing data-products are high priorities: (1) earlyalerts (location, magnitude, species) that an event is inprogress; (2) timely forecasts of the trajectory of theevent in time and space; and (3) predictions of whereand when an event is likely to occur (advance noticeof the probability an event will occur).Achieving thesegoals depends on rapid detection of the initiation of aHAB event and coupled coastal circulation-popula-tion dynamics models to forecast where and whensuch an event is likely to impact human activities andliving resources.The minimum set of variables to bemeasured are as follows: (1) real-time wind fields(updated 3-4 times/day), freshwater fluxes (rainfall,rivers, ground water) and related inputs of sedimentsand nutrients (daily rates updated weekly); and (2) sur-face currents and waves, sea surface temperature andchlorophyll distributions updated daily;vertical profiles(with measurement at surface,pycnocline,near bottomas a minimum) of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxy-gen, inorganic nutrients (N, P, Si), chlorophyll,coloured dissolved organic matter, and cell densities ofHAB species updated at weekly (small number of sta-tions) to monthly intervals (more stations).

BOX 7.2. GOOS USER SCENARIOS

7.2.2 The Importance of Regional Bodies

The Governing Council of UNEP has repeatedlyendorsed the formulation and implementation ofregional action plans to control marine pollutionand manage coastal marine and estuarine resources.Development of the coastal module of GOOS willdepend on harmonizing the need for a global net-work with user needs based on national and region-al priorities. Thus, implementation of the coastalmodule will require the support and participation

of at least four groups of regional bodies and activ-ities: (1) national GOOS programmes and GOOSRegional Alliances (GRAs), (2) Regional FisheryBodies (RFBs), (3) Regional Seas Programmes(RSPs) and (4) Large Marine Ecosystem approach-es (LMEs) (Figure 7.1). These provide the primarymeans by which user requirements and regionalpriorities will be established (cf., UNEP, 2001), andtheir coordinated support will be needed to imple-ment, operate and develop the coastal module(Annex VIII).


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Figure 7.1. Status of the Large Marine Ecosystem programme (LMEs). Projects ( ) in various stages of planning (100 -500 thousand USDs) and projects ( ) under implementation with funding from the Global Environmental Facility (15 - 40million USDs). Those indicated in dark grey are potential LMEs.

There is great potential for collaboration amongRFBs, RSPs, LMEs and GOOS. GOOS provides anorganizational framework for the coordinated devel-opment of ecosystem based management approachesto resource management and environmental protec-tion. Successful collaboration among RFBs, RSPsand LMEs on regional scales is critical to the timelyand cost-effective implementation of the coastalmodule of GOOS, and there are signs that this isbeginning to occur. For example, in 1997 the Inter-national Council for the Explorations of the Sea(ICES) formed a Steering Group on GOOS(SGGOOS) to draft an action plan for how ICES can

play a leadership role in the establishment of GOOSin the North Atlantic with emphasis on operationalfisheries oceanography in the North Sea. SGGOOSwas reconstituted in 1999 as the joint ICES-IOCSteering Committee on GOOS which includes rep-resentatives from the GOOS Project Office andEuroGOOS. PICES is moving in a similar direction.In 2001, the UNEP Governing Council endorsed aresolution calling for a closer relationship betweenRSPs and the development of GOOS. The IOCAssembly, at its 21st session (July 2001) endorsed asimilar recommendation calling for GOOS to workclosely with UNEP at the regional level to assist in

implementing RSPs. Shortly thereafter, the IOC,ICES, OSPAR, the North Sea Conferences andEuroGOOS sponsored a SGGOOS workshop to ini-tiate planning for a North Sea Ecosystem GOOSpilot project.The goal of the project is to implementan ecosystem-based approach to environmental pro-tection and fisheries management. If successful, thiscould provide a model for regional development ofthe coastal module.

7.2.3 Potential Global Building Blocks

Very few operational elements are both coastal andglobal in scale. Examples of global elements relevantto the development of the coastal module include(but are not limited to) the WMO data managementsystems, GLOSS and IODE. GLOSS, a critical com-ponent of the coastal module, consists of a global net-work of tide gauges providing sustained data streamsthat are managed and analysed globally. The IODEwas established in 1961 to facilitate the exchange ofoceanographic data and information among partici-pating member states (see section 6). Most opera-tional systems relevant to the global coastal system areregional in scope. Of these, CalCOFI, CPR, andIBTS are examples of programmes that emphasizebiological observations that could be scaled up toaddress phenomena in the ecosystem health and liv-ing marine resources themes; BOOS is highlighted asan end-to-end system for efficient and safe marineoperations that provides a physical-meteorologicalframework for the development of ecological capac-ity (which is occurring as of this writing); andGCRMN is highlighted to illustrate the importanceof public awareness and involvement in developingand sustaining an observing system. Both global andregional programmes are described in more detail inAnnex VII. GRAs have a great responsibility to col-laborate with the COOP to coordinate the develop-ment of the Global Coastal Network, in exchangingdata which are truly global in nature, and in devel-oping those aspects of GOOS that target theirrespective regional needs.

Satellite data are a significant source of coastal infor-mation for GOOS, despite limitations of present sen-sors to provide near-shore data (e.g., altimetry breaksdown within 20 km of the shoreline; algorithms thattranslate water leaving-radiance into chlorophyllconcentrations in case II waters are in the research

and development stage), to resolve gradients on scalesless than 1 km, and to provide data from regions ofpersistent cloudiness. For the most part, the smallerthe sensor footprint and the higher the spatial reso-lution of the product, the greater the value for coastalpurposes.At present, satellite sea surface temperature,ocean colour, surface vector winds, precipitation andsome components of the air-sea heat flux are avail-able for the outer reaches of the EEZ in most coastalenvironments. Even when not directly applicable forcoastal purposes, these data can contribute to the skillof coastal models through larger-scale products thatprovide offshore boundary conditions for coastalmodels. Calibration of satellite data with in situ datais very important in the highly variable coastal zone.Most of the present satellite data are now fromresearch, not operational, missions. It is important tomove these to operational status.

7.2.4 Capacity Building

Many nations do not have the resources, technologiesor expertise to develop national or regional observ-ing systems or to contribute to the global networkwithout significant assistance.Thus, capacity buildingmust be an early priority for the global coastal sys-tem.This is the greatest challenge to the implemen-tation of GOOS on a global scale.

The goal of capacity building is to enable all nationsto contribute to and benefit from the observing sys-tem. Achieving this goal will require partnershipsbetween the community of donor nations and recip-ient nations. Capacity building will generally involvea mix of activities from technology transfer (to buildthe infrastructure required for observations, datacommunications networks and management, model-ling, and product development subsystems) and train-ing, to public outreach activities intended to educatethe public, donor organizations, government min-istries, and other stakeholders.

In collaboration with other capacity building activi-ties (by WMO, IOCCG, GLOSS, GCRMN, andIPHAB), the GOOS Capacity Building Panel andthe JCOMM Programme Area for Capacity Buildingwill articulate capacity building needs and promotecapacity building activities. Approaches must be tai-lored to regional needs and cultures and shouldinclude active community participation and aware-


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ness building (from government ministries and pri-vate enterprise to NGOs and volunteers). Above all,a sustained commitment will be required by thecommunity of industrialized nations. Participatingnations and donor organizations must recognize theneed to sustain commitments beyond initial trainingand technology transfer programmes. Immediate pri-orities include the following:

• increase public and political awareness of envi-ronmental problems and the benefits of detect-ing and predicting changes in coastal ecosystemsespecially the connection to public health;

• entrain stakeholders in the design and develop-ment of the observing system on local toregional scales;

• enlist academic institutions, environmentalresearch laboratories and government ministriesto commit resources and expertise;

• incorporate existing capabilities and support andimprove them according to the guidelines pro-vided by the design plan for the coastal module(this includes incorporation of relevant existingdata streams into the system);

• make use of computer-assisted and distancelearning activities via the world wide web andinteractive video networks; and

• develop the infrastructure for the communica-tions network and provide the required trainingfor data and information dissemination,QA/QC and archiving.

Initially, increasing public and political awareness indeveloping countries will be particularly important.In many cases, these countries will have to be con-vinced that more and better information on themarine environment will benefit their economiesand the well being of their citizens.The focus shouldbe on the value of information on marine ecosystemsand the value-added aspect of investing in an inter-national system. Above all, a sustained commitmentwill be required by the community of industrializednations. Participating nations and donor organiza-tions must recognize the need to maintain capacityonce it has been built.

7.3 PHASED IMPLEMENTATION

A sustained observing system, such as the WorldWeather Watch, is a new concept for oceanographers

and marine ecologists, and there is an ongoing debateover what constitutes a system for sustained observa-tions and what does not (Nowlin et al., 2001).Research projects intended to test hypotheses anddevelop new capabilities (from measurements tomodels) are finite in duration, and it cannot beassumed that every successful technique developedfor research purposes should be incorporated into asustained observing system. Such an approach is nei-ther practical nor cost-effective.Thus, a mechanism isneeded to select and incorporate candidate observingsystem elements into the sustained observing system.

In the development of current operational capabili-ties (e.g., ENSO forecasts), candidate systems typical-ly pass through four stages on the path from aresearch project to operational modes (Nowlin et al.,2001).They are as follows:

(1) The development of observational (platforms,sensors, measurement protocols, data telemetry)and analytical (e.g., models) techniques forresearch purposes;

(2) Acceptance of the techniques by research andoperational communities gained through repeat-ed testing and pilot projects11 designed to


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11 A pilot project is an organized, planned set of activities with focused objectivesdesigned to provide an evaluation of technology, methods, or concepts the resultsof which are intended to advance the development of the sustained, integratedobserving system.As such, pilot projects have a defined schedule of finite duration.Guidelines for reviewing an endorsing pilot and pre-operational projects are as fol-lows: (i) Projects may be regional in scope; they may target any stage in the end-to-end system as outlined in i-iv above; and they may be enabling research or proofof concept projects. (ii) Projects must be organized and planned sets of activitieswith well defined objectives, a specified schedule with milestones, specified deliv-erables (products), and a finite lifetime. (iii) A clear statement must be made of howthe project will significantly benefit the design, implementation, or development ofCGOOS on regional (multi-national) to global scales.That is, the project must bejustified in terms of how successful completion of its goals will improve the system’scapacity to provide data and information for potential applications that are relevantto the needs of the user community. When appropriate, the project should bedeveloped in collaboration with user groups. (iv) Projects must have funds in handor have identified sources of funding. (v) It is expected that projects will functionautonomously under the oversight of COOP or of a regional or national GOOSbody as appropriate.

These criteria are intended to enable the objective selection of pilot projects thatwill benefit the development of GOOS and its users.They are not intended to berestrictive or exclusive if significant value can be achieved. For example, projectsthat address specific development needs at any stage of the end-to-end system, suchas sensor development and improved assimilation techniques and models, will beeligible for endorsement providing it is clear how successful achievements of theproject’s goals will benefit the observing system and its users.

Finally, it must be emphasized that mechanisms for the transition of pilot and pre-operational projects to an operational mode based on accepted and objective crite-ria have yet to be established.This problem must be addressed immediately, for, inthe absence of such a mechanism, there will be little motivation to develop the pilotprojects required to build a sustained and integrated system.

demonstrate their utility and sustainability in aroutine, operational mode;

(3) Pre-operational use of techniques and data bythe research, operational and user communitiesto ensure that incorporation into the observingsystem leads to a value added product (is morecost-effective than functioning in isolation) andto ensure that incorporation does not compro-mise the integrity and continuity of data streamsand product delivery; and

(4) Incorporation of techniques and data into theobserving system with sustained support andsustained use. A critical aspect of incorporationinto GOOS will involve the timely provision ofdata and metadata via an integrated data man-agement system as described in Chapter 6.

Mechanisms must be established to promote activi-ties in each of these stages and to selectively transi-tion successes from stage to stage based on therequirements of user groups. Programmes such asWOCE have experience of this transition, and with-in the GRAs many local developments have beentested and converted successfully to operational sta-

tus. These examples can be cloned between GRAsthrough the Regional GOOS Forum.

The private sector plays important roles in the oper-ational meteorological community. Industry manu-factures sensors and platforms. Commercial enter-prises add value to the weather forecast of theNational Weather Services and provide specializedforecast services to a wide range of customers.As theglobal and regional observing systems develop, therewill be many similar opportunities for the privatesector.

Technologies, understanding, requirements andapplications will advance and change with time andmechanisms must be established to ensure that theobserving system incorporates these changes as userneeds become better defined and new technologiesand models are developed.Thus, although present-ed as a linear sequence, in practice all four stageswill develop in parallel with feedbacks among allstages. Examples of programmes and elements thatare in each of the four stages are given in AnnexVII.


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• An example of an observing system that has pro-gressed through research, pilot project, and pre-operational stages to become operational is theENSO observing system in the tropical Pacific(Nowlin et al., 2001). In the 1980s, the TropicalOcean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) researchproject began to develop detection capabilities,scientific understanding and models required topredict ENSO events. This developed into amulti-national pilot project during the 1980s andearly 1990s.With the successful development ofpredictive skill based on routine observations, thepilot project became pre-operational in 1994 andin 1999 became an operational component ofGOOS.

• The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter mis-sion for precise measurements of sea surface

height is an example of an observing systemtechnology that has been proven in the researchcommunity and is now pre-operational.

The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment(GODAE) is a one-time pilot project to demonstratethe feasibility and practicality of real-time global oceandata assimilation and numerical modelling for short-range open ocean forecasts, boundary conditions toextend predictability of coastal regimes, initialise cli-mate forecast models; and research.A related samplingtechnology that is in the pilot project stage is the Argoproject which is deploying several hundredautonomous profiling floats to measure and telemetertemperature and salinity data for the upper ocean (0 - 2000 m).

BOX 7.3. EXAMPLES OF OBSERVING SYSTEM ELEMENTS THE REPRESENT OPERATIONAL,PRE-OPERATIONAL, AND PILOT PROJECT STAGES (FROM NOWLIN ET AL., 2001)

7.4 COORDINATION AND OVERSIGHT

At present, there are no formal mechanisms in placeto coordinate and link GRAs as they develop, topromote the development of the global coastal net-work (linking global systems and scaling up nation-al and regional systems), to formulate and adoptcommon standards and protocols (measurements,data communications and management, productdevelopment), and to promote community-basedmodelling activities.

As many of the phenomena of interest (e.g., in the cat-egories of human health, ecosystem health and livingmarine resources) transcend national borders and theEEZs of coastal states, intergovernmental mechanismsare needed to facilitate multi-lateral agreements, coor-dinate observing activities, and implement observingsystems required to achieve the goals of internationalconventions. Several mechanisms are envisioned asoffering avenues for coordination and oversight of thesystem.These include the following:

• GOOS National Programmes are basic build-ing blocks of GOOS.Therefore they should pro-vide the first level of coordination and oversightfor the global coastal network.

• GRAs could provide the mechanism for coordi-nating requirements for data and products amongthe GRAs, LMEs, RSPs, RFBs, and IOC andWMO regional organizations. Such coordinationis essential to reduce duplication of effort and toharmonize the use of observations among variousregional users having distinct requirements.

• JCOMM was established by the WMO and theIOC to provide a consistent framework for thecollection, archival, distribution and utilization ofdata for oceanographic and marine meteorologi-cal applications. The terms of reference forJCOMM allow for the inclusion of ecologicaland socio-economic elements of the coastal mod-ule (non-physical variables). Under the guidanceof scientific and operational programmes of theIOC and WMO, JCOMM is charged with devel-oping, maintaining, coordinating and guiding theoperation of the global meteorological and

oceanographic observing systems to meet theneeds of member nations.This includes (1) evalu-ation of the effectiveness of the observing systemon a continuing basis; (2) development of a datamanagement system to meet real time operationalneeds (in collaboration with the CBS, IODE,ICSU and other appropriated bodies); (3) provi-sion of guidance, assistance, and encouragementfor national and international analysis centres toprepare and deliver data products and services (incollaboration with the Global Maritime Distressand Safety System of SOLAS); and (4) reviewingand enhancing the capacity of members of theIOC and WMO to benefit from and contributeto GOOS and GCOS. JCOMM is to consider (1)the extent to which efficiencies can be achievedby maximizing the types of observations obtainedfrom various platforms (satellites, aircraft, drifters,gliders, moorings, ships, etc.) and (2) the bound-ary between the data and information providedby the observing system and their applications.The observing system will provide products andassessments of the state of the ocean, but will noteffect specific applications, e.g., the observing sys-tem will provide descriptions of the SST, wind,and current fields required for an ENSO predic-tion, but will not make the actual prediction.

• GOOS Regional Alliances as a group couldcomplement the activities of JCOMM.A groupsuch as the Regional GOOS Forum could pro-vide the mechanism to establish trans-regionaluser requirements, specify associated requiredproducts, coordinate measurements and sharingof technical information among GRAs, assessthe effectiveness of the system and recommendneeds to JCOMM.

Decisions regarding mechanisms for the coordinationand oversight of the global coastal network are need-ed soon because implementation of that network isbeginning. JCOMM can take on board non-physicalobservations, associated products, standards, etc. eitherdirectly by the formation of appropriate sub-bodiesof JCOMM or through linkages to appropriateorganizations that can deal with non-physical vari-ables on behalf of JCOMM.


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COOP MEMBERS

Dagoberto ArcosFisheries Research InstituteAvda Cristobal Colón # 2780P.O. Box 350Talcahuano,CHILETel: +56 41 588886Fax: +56 41 583939E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

Marcel BabinLaboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche (UMR 7093) Université Pierre et Marie Curie/CNRS Quai de la Darse, B.P. 8 06238 Villefranche-sur-Mer Cedex FRANCE Tel: +33 4 93 76 37 12 Fax: +33 4 93 76 37 39 E-mail: [email protected]

Bodo von BodungenBaltic Sea Research InstituteRostock UniversitySeestrasse 15D-18119 Rostock-WarnemuendeGERMANYTel: +49 381 5197100Fax: +49 381 5197 105E-mail: [email protected]

Alfonso BotelloUNAM-National Autonomous University of MexicoAP Postal 70305Mexico 04510,MEXICOTel: +52 5 622 5765Fax: +52 5 616 0748E-mail: [email protected]

Robert BowenEnvironmental, Coastal & Ocean Sciences (ECOS)UMass Boston100 Morrissey Blvd.Boston, MA 02125-3393USATel: +1 617 287 7443E-mail: [email protected]

Lauro Julio CalliariFundação Universidade Federaldo Rio Grande (FURG)Av. Itália km 8Campus CarreirosDepartamento de. GeociênciasLaboratório de Oceanografia Geológica96201-900 Rio Grande, RSBRASILTel: +55 53 2336518Fax: +55 53 2336605E-mail: [email protected]@[email protected]


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ANNEX I – Panel Members andContributing Experts

John CullenDepartment of OceanographyDalhousie UniversityHalifax, Nova Scotia CANADA, B3H 4J1Tel: +1 902 494 6667E-mail: [email protected]

Laura T. DavidMarine Science InstituteUniversity of PhilippinesRoces Av., Diliman, Quezon City PHILIPPINES Tel: +63 2 922-3959 Fax: +63 2 924-7678 E-mail: [email protected]

Michael DepledgeEnvironment AgencyRio HouseWaterside Drive,Aztec West,AlmondsburyBristol, BS 32 4 UDUNITED KINGDOMTel: +44 (0) 1454 878828E-mail:[email protected]

Eric DewaillyWHO/PAHO Collaborating Center on Environmental and Occupational HealthImpact assessment and Surveillance.2400 d'EstimauvilleBeauport,CANADA, QCG1E 7G9Tel: +1 418 666 7000 ext 222Fax: +1 418 666 2776E-mail: [email protected]

Michael J. FogartyNMFSEASC166 Water StWoods HoleMA 02543-1026,USATel: +1 508 495 2000Fax: +1 508 495 2258E-mail: [email protected]

Juliusz GajewskiMaritime InstituteMaritime Institute in GdanskDepartment of Operational OceanographyDlugi Targ 41-42 str.80-830 GdanskPOLANDTel: +48 58 3018724Fax: +48 58 3203256E-mail: [email protected]

Johannes GuddalNorwegian Meteorological InstituteDNMI Region W.,Allegt. 70N-5007 Bergen NORWAYTel: +47 5523 6626Fax: +47 5523 6703E-mail: [email protected]

Julie Anne HallNIWAP.O. Box 11-115, HamiltonNEW ZEALANDTel: +64 78561709Fax: +64 78560151E-mail: [email protected]

Hiroshi KawamuraGraduate School of ScienceTohoku UniversityAoba, Sendai 980-8578JAPANE-mail: [email protected]

Anthony Knap (Co-chairman)Bermuda Biological Stationfor Research, Inc.17 Biological LaneFerry ReachSt. George's GE 01BERMUDATel: +441 297 1880 ext. 244Fax: +441 297 8143E-mail: [email protected]


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Kwame KorantengMarine Fisheries Research DivisionMinistry of Food and AgricultureP.O. Box BT 62TemaGHANAE-mail: [email protected]

Thomas C. Malone (Co-chairman)Horn Point LaboratoryUniversity of Maryland Center forEnvironmental ScienceP.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613USATel: +1 410 221 8406Fax: +1 410 221 8473E-mail: [email protected]

Coleen MoloneyZoology DepartmentUniversity of Cape TownRondebosch7701 Cape TownSOUTH AFRICATel: +27 21 650 2681 E-mail: [email protected]

Nadia PinardiCorso di Laurea in Scienze AmbientaliBologna UniversityPalazzo RasponiPiazzale Kennedy 1248100 RavennaITALYTel: +39 0544 484269Fax: +39 0544 484268E-mail: [email protected]

Jeffrey PolovinaEcosystem & Environment Investigation Honolulu LaboratoryNOAA,2570 Dole St.Honolulu, HI 96822-2396USATel: 808-983-5390Fax: 808-983-2900E-mail: [email protected]

Hillel ShuvalDivision of Environmental SciencesThe Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalem ISRAELDirect Tel/Fax: +972-2-566 0429E-mail: [email protected]

Vladimir SmirnovArctic and Antarctic Research InstituteAARI38 Bering str.St. PetersburgRUSSIAN FEDERATION, 199397Tel: +8 123521520 Fax: +8 123522688E-mail: [email protected]

Keith R.ThompsonDept. of OceanographyDalhousie UniversityHalifax, Nova Scotia CANADA, B3HTel: +1 902 494 3491Fax: +1 902 494 2885E-mail: [email protected]

Vladimir VladimirovCaspian Environment ProgrammeRoom 108, 3rd Entrance, Government House U. Gajibeyov Str., 40 Baku-370016AZERBAIJANTel: +994 12 971785, 938003Fax: +994 12 971786E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

MVM WafarNational Institute of Oceanography,Dona Paula P.O. Goa 403 004INDIATel: +91 832 226253 extn. 4252Fax: +91 832 223340E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]


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Rudolph WuCity University of Hong KongDpt of biology and ChemistryTat Chee AvenueKowloonHong KongCHINATel: +85 2 2788 7404Fax: +85 2 2788 7406E-mail: [email protected]

INVITED EXPERTS

Robert R. ChristianBiology DepartmentEast Carolina UniversityGreenville, NC 27858USATel: +1 252 328 1835Fax: +1 252 328 4178E-mail: [email protected]

Chris CrosslandLOICZ IPOP.O.B. 59, NL-1790AB, Den BurgTexelTHE NETHERLANDSTel: +31 222 369404E-mail: [email protected]

Stephen J. de MoraInternational Atomic Energy AgencyMarine Environment Laboratory4, Quai Antoine 1er – B.P. 800MC 98012PRINCIPALITY OF MONACOTel: +377 97 97 72 72E-mail: [email protected]

Roger HarrisPlymouth Marine LaboratoryProspect PlacePlymouth, PL1 3DHUNITED KINGDOMTel: + 44 (0) 1752 633100E-mail: [email protected]

William HarrisonOcean Sciences DivisionBedford Inst. of OceanographyP.O. Box 1006Dartmouth, Nova ScotiaCANADA B2Y 4A2Tel: +1 902 426 3879E-mail: [email protected]

Herman HummelCentre for Estuarine and Coastal EcologyNetherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOOCEMO)Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts andSciencesKorringaweg 7, 4401 NT YersekeP.O.B. 140, 4400 AC YersekeTHE NETHERLANDSTel: +31 (0) 113 577484 (577300)E-mail: [email protected]

Savithri NarayananMarine Environmental Data ServiceDept. of Fisheries and OceansW082, 12th Floor200 Ken Street Ottawa, Ontario CANADA K1A 0E6Tel: +1 613 990 0265E-mail: [email protected]

Worth NowlinDepartment of OceanographyTexas A&M University,College Station,TX 77843,USATel: +1 979 845 3900|Fax: +1 979 847 8879E-mail: [email protected]

Shubha SathyendranathPOGOMail Stop B240Bedford Institute of OceanographyDartmouthNova Scotia CANADA, B2Y 4A2Tel: +1 902 426 8044E-mail: [email protected]


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Neville SmithBureau of Meteorology Research Centre150 Lonsdale StreetBox 1289KMelbourne,Victoria 3001AUSTRALIATel: +61 3 9669 44 34Fax: +61 3 9669 46 60E-mail: [email protected]

IOC SECRETARIAT

Thorkild AarupIntergovernmental Oceanographic CommissionUNESCO1, rue Miollis75732 Paris Cedex 15FRANCETel: +33 (0) 145-684019Fax: + 33 (0) 145 685812E-mail: [email protected]


119

INTRODUCTION

The phenomena of interest, grouped according toTable 1.1, are described below for consistency and asan aid to determining the variables that must be meas-ured to detect or predict variability in them.A majorgoal of the coastal module of GOOS is the develop-ment of an integrated observing system for the provi-sion of data and information required to anticipatechanges and prepare for an uncertain future over abroad range of scales in time and space. In addition toimproving nowcasts and forecasts of changes in thephysical environment for safe and efficient marineoperations and public safety (surface currents andwaves, storm surges, coastal erosion, etc.), successfuldevelopment of the coastal module is critical toimproving the ability of governments to mitigate theeffects of external forcings (climate changes andhuman activities) on ecosystems and people and tosustain, protect and restore marine habitats, livingresources and ecosystems. Critical to improving theability of governments to perform these functions arerepeated, quantitative assessments of the state of coastalmarine ecosystems in terms of their capacity to sup-port goods and services. To this end, the integratedobserving system should be designed to detect andpredict changes in the broad spectrum of physical andecological phenomena described below.

The variability exhibited by coastal environments andthe organisms that inhabit them reflect the effects ofexternal forcings (e.g., ENSO events, global warming,nutrient loading to surface waters from coastaldrainage basins) and characteristics of ecosystemsthemselves (e.g., geomorphology, circulation and mix-ing regimes, physical-biological-benthic-pelagic cou-pling, and a diversity of biogeochemical and trophic

interactions). Overfishing is among the oldest of asequence of major anthropogenic forcings of coastalecosystems that include nutrient enrichment, chemi-cal contamination,physical alteration of habitats, intro-ductions of invasive species and the production ofgreen house gasses.The effects of any of these forcingscannot be effectively addressed independently of oneanother or of natural sources of variability (e.g.,extreme weather events, tides, large scale currents andwaves, species succession and evolution).Variations infish stocks, biodiversity, habitats, and the resiliency ofmarine ecosystems to external forcings are not inde-pendent but related through complex non-linear andstochastic interactions. Consequently, the present stateof the marine environment and changes in the phe-nomena of interest can only be predicted with accept-able skill if they are rapidly detected and quantitative-ly understood in terms of both the compoundingeffects of larger scale forcings (occurring in the oceans,on land, and in the atmosphere) and the hierarchy ofinteractions that define marine ecosystems.

A. MARINE SERVICES AND PUBLIC SAFETY

1. Forecasts and Changes in Sea State, Surface Currents, Current Profiles, Sea Level and ShallowWater Bathymetry12

Nowcasts and forecasts of sea state, sea level andcoastal circulation patterns are of critical importanceto safe and efficient marine operations includingshipping, port operations, search and rescue opera-tions, fishing, recreational boating and swimming,


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ANNEX II – The Phenomena of Interest:Definitions

12 Nowcasts and forecasts of fog and sea ice are important marine services in someregions (e.g., high latitudes, coastal upwelling regions) but are not considered to beglobal in extent.These should be the subject of regional enhancements.

and the extraction of natural resources. Sea statedescribes the wave environment at the air-sea inter-face and is measured in terms of amplitude, frequen-cy and direction. Wind, wave, and current data arenow managed on a gridded field basis, often withdirectional spectra. Accurate bathymetric maps andpredictions (hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts) of sealevel are also required for coastal circulation models(for research and operational purposes) and, there-fore, for the coupled physical-biological modelsneeded to predict changes in the status of marineecosystems and the living resources they support, i.e.,prediction of most of the phenomena of interestrequires data (measured or calculated) on sea level,surface waves, circulation, and/or bathymetry.

2. Shoreline Changes and Coastal Flooding

Coastlines are constantly eroding and accreting fromroutine and episodic events associated with tides,winds, waves, storm surges, sediment resuspensionand transport by rivers, tectonic processes and humanmodifications of the coastal zone.The latter includethe construction of dams, harbours, breakwaters, andinlets; dredging to maintain shipping channels; sandmining; extraction of ground water; and modifica-tions of biologically structured habitats (sea grassbeds, kelp beds, tidal marshes, mangroves, oyster reefs,and coral reefs).These habitats help stabilize soils andsediments thereby buffering and the effects of waveaction and the extent of coastal flooding. Thus, theconsequences of human modifications include themobilization of sediments and alterations of sedimenttransport patterns, subsidence, and increases in thesusceptibility to coastal flooding.

B. PUBLIC HEALTH

Human health risks are related to the presence andconcentration of pathogens, chemical contaminants,and biotoxins produced by harmful algae. Humansare exposed to these sources of pathology via thefood they eat, direct contact with seawater andinhalation of aerosols.

1. Chemical Contamination of Seafood

There is a broad spectrum of chemical contaminantsthat are health risks to humans via seafood consump-tion.Those of human origin include synthetic organ-

ic chemicals often called Persistent Organic Pollu-tants (POPs, e.g., PCBs, polychlorinated biphenylsand furans, DDT, chlordane, and heptachlor), Poly-cyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs, products ofthe thermal degradation of petroleum), and metalsand organometal complexes (most notably Cd,MeHg, and TBT).Toxins produced by harmful algaeare treated below. For the most part, the relative sig-nificance of these chemicals as human health risksvaries regionally depending on climate and oceano-graphic conditions, the culture of the population(i.e., the amount and type of seafood consumed)extent and kinds of industrial development, and agri-cultural practices (cf.,Table 5 in “A Strategic Plan forthe Assessment and Prediction of the Health of theOcean, May 1996, IOC/INF-1044, UNESCO). Tothe extent that circulation patterns and geomorphol-ogy influence the distribution and fate of contami-nants, these factors will also be important in assessingthe probability of human exposure (NRC, 1999b).

2. Human Pathogens

The primary sources of human pathogens areuntreated human sewage and animal wastes (entericbacteria). Routes of human exposure include seafoodconsumption (especially raw shellfish), ingestion ofseawater, and direct (skin) exposure to water or sedi-ments. To the extent that circulation patterns andgeomorphology influence the distribution and con-centration of pathogens, these factors will also beimportant in assessing the probability of humanexposure. Physical and meteorologically forced mod-els can help predict dispersion and transports.

Among the microbial agents responsible for seafoodborne illnesses, viruses are the most common causeof infection, followed by bacteria and protozoa(NRC,1999b). Shellfish are the major vectors of viralinfections. Among the bacteria, Vibrio vulnificus hasbeen implicated in shellfish poisoning and woundinfections. Vibrio spp., E. coli, Shigella spp. and Salmo-nella spp. can also be contracted from ingestion ofseafood or water. Less is known about protozoainduced illnesses. Giardia spp. and Entamoeba gastrilishave been epidemiologically linked to scuba divingin sewage contaminated waters.The concentration ofcoliform bacteria in the water column is the mostcommonly measured indicator of pathogen contam-ination. Current estimates of the cost to society of


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exposure to these pathogens via bathing in pollutedwaters and consumption of seafood are $1.6 billionand 7.2 billion USD, respectively.

C. STATUS (HEALTH) OF MARINE

AND ESTUARINE ECOSYSTEMS

To the extent that currents, turbulent mixing andgeomorphology and associated features (fronts, pycn-oclines, boundary layers) influence the distribution,concentration and fate of material inputs (e.g., inor-ganic and organic nutrients, chemical contaminants,pathogens, non-native species) in coastal ecosystems,these factors will also be important in predictingchanges in the phenomena of interest discussedbelow.

1. Habitat Modification and Loss13

The habitats targeted by the coastal module are thoseof the intertidal (mangrove forests, tidal marshes, mudflats, and beaches) and relatively shallow subtidalzones (kelp forests and other attached macroalgae,seagrass beds, coral and oyster reefs). These habitatsare important for recreation and provide food andrefuge for a high diversity of organisms, includingcommercial and recreational fish populations. Theyplay major roles in sustaining living resources, pro-viding habitat for marine organisms, maintainingshoreline stability, mitigating the effect of stormsurges and coastal flooding, and controlling the flux-es of nutrients, contaminants and sediments fromland to coastal ecosystem. Thus, changes in thesehabitats have significant affects on marine biodiversi-ty, fisheries, recreation and tourism, the susceptibilityof human populations to extreme weather, the capac-ity of coastal ecosystems to assimilate and recyclenutrients mobilized by human activities, and on theprovision of aesthetically pleasing environments(NRC, 1994; Mitsch et al., 1994; Boehlert, 1996;Maragos et al., 1996).

The distribution and areal extent of these habitats areaffected by both climatic forcings (e.g., changing pat-terns of heat flux and rainfall) and anthropogenicactivities (e.g., excess nutrient inputs and over fish-

ing). Coral reef bleaching and increases in the sus-ceptibility of corals to disease are believed to be relat-ed to increases in temperature caused by ENSOevents and global warming. Overfishing, nutrientenrichment and coastal erosion are also causes ofcoral reef loss. Mangrove forests are being cut downfor firewood and to provide space for aquacultureoperations (e.g., shrimp farming). Losses of sea grassbeds occur as a consequence of wasting disease,nutrient enrichment, coastal erosion and sedimentloading, land reclamation, harvesting bottom fish andshellfish, and dredging.Tidal marshes are susceptibleto sea level rise, subsidence, canalisation, invasivespecies, and land use practices (e.g., coastal develop-ment and hardening the shoreline, water consump-tion, dams) that affect their sediment budgets andpore water chemistry.

The distribution and abundance of biologicallystructured habitats (mangrove forests, sea grass beds,coral reefs, etc.) vary regionally depending on water-depth, -clarity, -temperature, and salinity. For exam-ple, salt marshes are prominent features of coastalecosystems in South Asia and the SW Atlantic butnot in South Africa, the SE Pacific, or the Arctic.Coral reefs are confined to warm, clear waters of thetropics and subtropics (e.g., SW Pacific, Caribbean),and mangroves are particularly abundant in west-central Africa, the SW Atlantic, the west coast ofCentral America, the north coast of South Americaand the SE Pacific.

2. Eutrophication

The structure and function of coastal ecosystemsdepend on inputs of nutrients (N, P, Si, Fe, etc.) fromexternal sources (the deep ocean, coastal drainagebasins and the atmosphere). Excess inputs of nutrients(nutrient over-enrichment or nutrient pollution --usually forms of nitrogen, phosphorus, or both) resultin a phenomenon called “eutrophication”. “Excess”is typically defined in terms of outcomes. Theseinclude accumulations of organic matter (often in theform of algal biomass but also as organic detritus, dis-solved organic matter, or some combination ofthese), increases in bacterial production, and thedevelopment of hypoxic (dissolved oxygen < 2 ppm)or anoxic (no dissolved oxygen, often associated withthe production of hydrogen sulphide which is toxicto many aerobic organisms) conditions. Oxygen


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13 Habitat modifications due to oxygen depletion, harmful algal events, and inva-sive species are treated elsewhere.

depletion of bottom waters is nearly always a conse-quence of excess nutrient enrichment and associatedaccumulations of organic matter. There is also clearand unequivocal evidence that increases in the fre-quency and extent (spatial and temporal) of bottomwater hypoxia and anoxia are directly related toincreases in diffuse and point source inputs fromanthropogenic sources (Howarth et al., 2000; Kempand Boynton, 1997; Nixon, 1995; Peierls et al., 1991).Thus, the phenomena of eutrophication will bequantified here in terms of the frequency and extentof hypoxia in coastal ecosystems.

Excess nutrient enrichment may also promote lossesin biodiversity, mass mortalities, decreases in waterclarity, habitat loss (e.g., coral reefs, sea grass beds), thegrowth of HABs and non-native species, and changesin the abundance of exploitable living marineresources. However, because these phenomena areoften the consequence of other factors than nutrientenrichment and have significant implications interms of ecosystem structure and function that arenot directly related to nutrient enrichment, thesephenomena are treated separately below.

For the most part, excess inputs of nutrients to semi-enclosed bodies of water and near-shore coastalecosystems (e.g., in waters less that 50 m deep andwithin 50 km of the coastline) are related to humanactivities that mobilize nitrogen and phosphorus andincrease their export from coastal drainage basins andairsheds via surface and ground water discharges andatmospheric deposition. For example, over the past100 years, nitrate concentrations in the world’s rivershave increased by as much as 20 fold, largely as a con-sequence of a rapid increase in the pool of fixed N(due mostly to anthropogenic fixation of N for fer-tilizers) and to related increases in point (sewage) anddiffuse (mobilization of nitrogen by deforestation,fertilizer use, acid rain) inputs. Increases in anthro-pogenic inputs are reflected in the correlationbetween riverine N exports to coastal ecosystemsand the population density of their watersheds. Evi-dence is growing that such increases in N loading areresponsible for the loss of habitat (seagrasses, coralreefs) and for increases in the occurrence and magni-tude of seasonal anoxia. Given the effects of suchchanges on critical fish habitat and the migrations ofanadromous fish, it is likely that these effects are low-ering the carrying capacity of ecosystems for

exploitable fish and shellfish stocks. The effects ofexcess nutrient enrichment can also be exacerbatedby over fishing, especially when the exploited speciesare filter feeders such as oysters, clams and mussels.

The measurement and control of eutrophication areoften the subject of local, national, and multi-nation-al agreements concerning coastal seas, so that mattersof definition and measurement become acutely sen-sitive and political. Operational agencies withresponsibility for this management will benefit fromincreased research, and improvements in operationalobservations and modelling.

3. Changes in Biodiversity

Of the various levels of biological diversity (frommolecular to ecosystem levels of organization), themost common indices of biodiversity are based onthe number of species and the distribution of abun-dance among species. Current estimates (which aremost likely underestimates) place the number ofmarine species at about 200,000 with representativesfrom 32 phyla, 15 of which are found exclusively inthe marine realm.This is in marked contrast with theterrestrial environment where there is an estimated12 million species, over 90% of which are from twophyla: insects and flowering plants.

The rate of species extinction has been estimated tohave been about 1 per year prior to the evolution ofpeople compared to the current rate of 100-10,000species per year (Norse, 1996). Changes in speciesdiversity are related to large scale changes in theocean-climate system (e.g., ENSO, PDO, NAO) andto more local scale changes such as habitat loss ormodification (e.g., coral reef bleaching, declines inmangrove forests due to shrimp farming, loss of sea-grasses due to nutrient enrichment), oxygen deple-tion, invasions of non-native species, fishing, massmortalities of marine organisms, and harmful algalevents.

4. Harmful Algal Events

There is growing evidence that coastal ecosystemsare experiencing an escalating and disturbing trendin the incidence of problems associated with harm-ful algae, including human illness from contaminat-ed shellfish or fish, the closure of shellfish beds, mass


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mortality of cultured finfish, and the death of marinemammals and seabirds (Anderson et al., 2002 andreferences therein; http://ioc.unesco.org/hab).Increases in harmful algal events may also be associ-ated with the loss of biodiversity in some regions.Asa result, government ministries responsible for pub-lic health and industries involved in the harvestingand marketing of sea food (wild and farmed) are rec-ognizing the need for more timely detection ofHAB events and for the development of a predictiveunderstanding of when and where such events aremost likely to occur.Timely access to such informa-tion is required to (1) protect public health, (2) con-trol and mitigate ecological and economic impacts,and (3) disseminate relevant, accurate and usefulinformation in a timely fashion to coastal communi-ties and industries that are impacted or likely to beaffected by such events.

Although harmful algal events are often referred to asharmful algal blooms (HABs) or “red tides”, it mustbe recognized that: (1) HAB species represent a broadspectrum of taxa (dinoflagellates, diatoms, cyanobac-teria, raphidophytes, prymnesiophytes, and pelago-phytes) and trophic levels (e.g., autotrophic, het-erotrophic, mixotrophic) that are referred to collec-tively as “algae”; and (2) many HAB species causeproblems at low cell densities, i.e., a bloom is notnecessarily required for a HAB event to occur.Thereare two general groups of HABs: (1) those that pro-duce toxins that contaminate seafood, increase thesusceptibility to disease, and kill marine animals; and(2) those that cause problems by virtue of their highabundance or biomass (oxygen depletion, habitatloss, and starvation, respiratory or reproductive failurein marine animals). The latter are discussed in thecontext of coastal eutrophication.

For the purposes of the design plan, a harmful algalevent may be one or more of the following: (1) abloom of a HAB species that is known to producetoxins harmful to marine life or to humans; (2) massmortalities of marine organisms caused by HABspecies; (3) non-lethal manifestations such as lesions,increased parasite load, or decreased reproductivecapacity caused by HAB species; or (4) the occur-rence of human illness caused by a HAB species.There are approximately 5,000 species of microalgaein the world. Of these, about 100 fall into one ormore of these categories. These species produce a

spectrum of toxins that typically fall into one of thefollowing categories: paralytic shellfish poisoning,diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, amnesic shellfish poi-soning, neurotoxic shellfish poisoning, and Ciguaterafish poisoning. Lesions, respiratory irritation, andmemory loss may also occur via contact with wateror exposure to aerosolised toxins or irritants. For themost part, the relative significance of toxic speciesvaries regionally depending on environmental condi-tions conducive to growth and to the production oftoxins by microalgae (Smayda and Shimizu, 1993;http://ioc.unesco.org/hab).

5. Invasive Species

As the global movement of ships, people and com-modities has increased, the number of introductionsof non-native species has also increased (global dis-persal). The number of successful new invasions(invasive species) appears to have increased dramat-ically during the 1970s and 1980s, perhaps as a con-sequence of the combined effects of global disper-sal, habitat loss and modification, nutrient enrich-ment and over fishing in coastal ecosystems (Carl-ton, 1996). Increases in the occurrence of invasivespecies may be a factor in the loss of biodiversity insome regions. The list of recent invaders includesseveral species of benthic algae, SAV, toxic dinofla-gellates (e.g., Alexandrium catenella in Australia),bivalves (e.g., the zebra mussel in the Great Lakesand the Chinese clam in San Francisco Bay), poly-chaetes, ctenophores, copepods, crabs and fish. Suchinvasions can profoundly alter the population andtrophic dynamics of coastal ecosystems. For exam-ple, the introduction of the ctenophore Mnemiopsisleidyi caused the collapse of the anchovy fishery inthe Black Sea by preying on the anchovy’s preferredfood, copepods; the introduction of the macroben-thic green algae, Caulerpa taxifolia, displaced adiverse community of sponges, gorgonians, andother seaweeds over thousands of square meters inthe northern Mediterranean; and the introductionof the Chinese clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) hasseverely limited phytoplankton production in SanFrancisco Bay.

6.Water Clarity

Reductions in water clarity can occur as a conse-quence of numerous factors including coastal erosion


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and sediment transport, sediment resuspension, phy-toplankton growth, overfishing of filter feedingbivalves, and inputs of nutrients and organic matterfrom point (e.g., sewage discharges) and diffusesources (surface and ground water flows, atmospher-ic deposition). Underwater light is essential for pho-tosynthesis, the growth and maintenance of manyhabitats (e.g., coral reefs, seagrasses, benthic macroal-gae) and vision. Photosynthesis supports most bio-logical production in the ocean; habitats such as coralreefs, kelp beds, and sea grasses are important habitatsfor living resources and biodiversity; and vision is animportant parameter of reproduction and feeding(trophic interactions and the transfer of phytoplank-ton production to higher trophic levels, includingcommercially important fisheries). Consequently,changes in water clarity can have profound influ-ences on coastal ecosystems.

Solar radiation is attenuated rapidly in most coastalwaters influenced by land-runoff (inputs of sedi-ments, coloured dissolved organic matter, particu-late organic matter and nutrients associated withsurface water runoff), high phytoplankton produc-tivity, and sediment resuspension. Measurements ofattenuation in several wave bands can resolve theeffects of sediments, coloured dissolved organicmatter, and phytoplankton. Thus, in addition tobeing an important determinant of primary pro-ductivity, the attenuation of solar radiation can bean important tracer of phytoplankton, sedimenttransport, coastal erosion, areal extent and locationof buoyant plumes and effluent discharges, nutrientsupply, and the environmental mobility of inorgan-ic and organic pollutants, inorganic particles, anddetritus and living particulate matter.

7. Disease and Mass Mortalities in Marine Organisms

Fish, shellfish, marine mammals, turtles and sea birdsexperience mass mortalities and strandings (that typ-ically lead to death) that have been related to disease,parasitism, harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, oil spills,diversions of freshwater, and climate change. Thenumber of such events and assessments of their caus-es can be considered indicators of the health ofmarine ecosystems and their capacity to support liv-ing resources.

D. STATUS OF LIVING MARINE

RESOURCES

1. Changes in Harvest (both Capture Fisheries andAquaculture)

More than 90% of the marine fish catch comes fromcoastal ecosystems and, in 1997, fish provided about6% of the total protein consumed by humans. Thespecies composition of fish landings varies amongregions and is changing through time as landings ofthe larger, more valued species (e.g., salmon, tuna,sword fish, haddock, cod, hakes, redfish, flounders)decline.About 1 billion people, mostly in developingcountries, rely on fish as their primary source of ani-mal protein. Global fish and shellfish landings fromboth capture fisheries and aquaculture increased fromless than 20 million metric tons in the early 1950s tomore than 100 m-tons in the late 1990s.The rate ofincrease has decreased from about 6% per year dur-ing the 1950s and 1960s to 1.5% during the 1980sand 1990s.The FAO estimates that by 2010 fish land-ings will drop to about 75 million tons unless aqua-culture production doubles and fishing pressure isreduced to sustainable levels.

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seafood pro-duction (capture fisheries and aquaculture) increasedfrom 89 million tons to 120 million tons. Capturefisheries increased by only 17% during this periodand has levelled off in recent years. In contrast, aqua-culture production expanded by 170% accountingfor 60% of the total 31 million ton increase duringthis period (FAO, 2000). Aquaculture currentlyaccounts for 30% of seafood consumption worldwide(FAO, 2000). In developed countries, aquacultureproduction increased by 25% (2.8 million tons in1984 to 3.5 million tons in 1994) while capture fish-ery landings declined by 26% (42 million tons in1984 to 31 million tons in 1994). In contrast, theproduction of both capture fisheries and aquacultureincreased in developing countries by 340% and 68%respectively (FAO, 2000).

The FAO has developed three indicators that wouldhelp assess the condition of global fisheries: (1) totallanding by year for each fishery region; (2) the ratioof piscivore to zooplanktivore biomass based onannual landings; and (3) percent catch by trophiclevel. With the exception of the eastern Indian


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Ocean, piscivore landings have either peaked (NEPacific, NE Atlantic, western Indian Ocean, westerncentral Pacific) or declined (eastern central Pacific,NW Atlantic, NW Pacific).

It should be emphasized that aquaculture practicescan have significant environmental impacts includingthe degradation of water quality due to the concen-trated production of wastes, alteration of marine foodwebs due to the introduction of non-native or genet-ically altered species and to the removal of forage fishto use as food (e.g., salmon net pen aquaculture),habitat loss or modification (e.g., removal of man-grove stands for shrimp mariculture), the spread ofdisease, and increases in the incidence of harmfulalgal blooms (NRC, 1992, 1996a, 1996b; Chamber-lain, 1997; Folke and Kautsky, 1992).

2. Changes in the Abundance of Exploitable LivingMarine Resources

Sustained declines in the spawning stocks of marinefish, measured in term of total biomass and abun-dance, result in the loss of commercial fisheries,changes in the trophic structure and nutrient dynam-ics, and, in extreme cases, extinction. Such declinesmay also contribute to habitat loss (e.g., coral reefs),the development of invasive species and harmful algalblooms. Ecosystem level effects such as these tend tobe species specific or trophic level specific (e.g., filterfeeding bivalves versus piscivores). Early detection oftrends in the abundance of spawning stocks ofexploitable marine resources is critical to ecosystem-based fisheries management.


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There are two common misconceptions concerningthe concept of an “operational” observing system(Nowlin et al., 2001).The first is that there is a cleardistinction between research and operational pro-grammes. There is not. The second is that datastreams and applications do not have to be closelylinked.They do. As is the case in meteorology, oper-ational activities grow out of a rich foundation of sci-entific research. Using a tree as a metaphor, opera-tional programmes are like the branches of a tree thatgrow from the trunk and roots, the research base.Both will prosper and grow as the strength of oneenhances the strength of the other.The developmentof the ENSO observing system is a good example ofthis type of synergy.A related and important require-ment is that the credit for building and sustainingGOOS must not be limited to the end members ofthe end-to-end system alone (the data gatherers andusers).All of those involved, from measurements anddata acquisition to data management, analysis andapplications must be acknowledged and receive cred-it for their contributions to the system.

The development of the coastal module of GOOSwill be guided by the GOOS Design Principles(IOC, 1998b) that have been tailored for the purpos-es of the coastal component. The users of the dataand data-products will interact with both technicalexperts and scientists to drive the processes of design-ing, operating and improving the system in responseto the evolving needs of user groups. As the coastalmodule develops, it must become more than the sumof its parts.The system will not be an opportunisticassembly of whatever might be available. It willdevelop by selectively incorporating, enhancing andsupplementing existing programmes consistent withthe needs of participating nations.To these ends, the

design of the coastal module of GOOS will be guid-ed by the following principles:

• OperationalFor the purposes of GOOS, an operational observ-ing system is one in which data streams and productsare sustained into the foreseeable future and are pro-vided routinely and systematically as specified by theusers (uninterrupted, timely delivery of data andinformation with sufficient precision and accuracy).The successful achievement of the goals of the coastalmodule of GOOS requires that it be designed tocapture the spectrum of environmental responses(the temporal and spatial dimensions of variability) toexternal forcings that are relevant to the phenomenaof interest (Table 1.1). Observations must be sus-tained in perpetuity to capture episodic events andlong-term trends (document both high and low fre-quency variability), enhance scientific analysis, andsupport model predictions.

• IntegratedThe observing system must not only be sustained, itmust be integrated (Figure III.1).The observing systemwill be integrated from measurements (remote and insitu sensing; synoptic measurements of physical, biolog-ical and chemical properties over a broad range of timeand space scales) to data management (multiple datatypes from disparate sources) and analyses that areresponsive to the needs of multiple end-users.

In addition, the observing system will provide dataand information for marine operations and onchanges in coastal ecosystems that require regional toglobal (international) approaches for rapid detectionand timely prediction (e.g., local expressions of larg-er scale changes).


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ANNEX III – Design Principles

The coastal module of GOOS is being designed andimplemented as a component of GOOS and in col-laboration with GCOS and GTOS. To date, few, ifany, programmes are both integrated and sustained.Asustained commitment will be required of GOOSpartners to establish, maintain, validate, make accessi-ble, and distribute high quality data that meet inter-nationally agreed upon standards.

• Data ManagementAn integrated data and information managementsystem will be developed that ensures rapid access todiverse data and information of known quality frommany sources by all users.

• UsersThe observing system will provide data and deriveddata-products that address a broad spectrum of userneeds14. This Design Plan identifies observationsrequired to achieve defined objectives and, wherepossible, describes how they will be applied to theneeds of users. Examples of objectives and productsfor the category of ecosystem health are given inTable III.1


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Figure III.1. The extent to which programmes are sustained and integrated. Sustained is the assurance that observationswill be continued in perpetuity. An observing system is integrated to the extent that the measurement programme is multi-disciplinary (physical, chemical and biological variables measured synoptically in time and space) and the observing systemis designed to address the needs of multiple user groups. Most programmes are either sustained or integrated. Very few areboth. For example, Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) and the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) are sus-tained, but not integrated. Likewise, research programmes such as the Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ),Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC), Global Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (GEOHAB),and the Joint Global Ocean Flux (JGOFS) programmes are integrated but not sustained. Of the examples given here, takentogether, the monitoring programmes of the Regional Fishery Bodies (RFBs such as ICES and the IBSFC) and Regional SeasConventions (RSCs such as the Barcelona Convention) come closest to the vision of the coastal module of GOOS in terms ofbeing multi-disciplinary and sustained (MFS - Mediterranean Forecasting System, BOOS - Baltic Operational Observing Sys-tem, GODAE - Global Data Assimilation Experiment).

14 The products of the coastal module of GOOS will depend on the level of dataanalysis required by user groups ranging from “raw” (unprocessed) data and cali-brated data for scientists to near-real time predictions and more highly processeddata for education and commercial use.At the present time, it is not clear where inthe continuum from data to derived products the non-commercial role of GOOSends and the commercial development of products begins.

• Cost-EffectiveThe development of the coastal module of GOOSinvolves more cost-effective use of existing data,expertise and infrastructure than is currently realized,i.e., the entire process from measurements to prod-ucts will be cost-effective. The coastal module ofGOOS can come into being by selectively incorpo-rating, enhancing and supplementing existing pro-grammes based on regional priorities and user needs.It will become a comprehensive system of observa-tions through shared use of infrastructure from meas-

urement systems and platforms to communicationnetworks, data management systems, assimilationtechniques, and modelling.This will require national,regional and global coordination to minimize dupli-cation and costs, optimise the temporal-spatial scalesof observation, and maximize the availability data andinformation to participating nations.

• System Performance and EvolutionProducts must ensure social and economic benefitsthat justify the operational costs of the observation


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More timely detection and prediction ofchanges in the areal extent of biologicallystructured habitats.More timely detection of changes in speciesdiversity of benthic, pelagic, and planktonicflora a fauna.More timely detection and improved pre-diction of coastal eutrophication on regionaland global scales for coastal marine andestuarine ecosystems.

More timely detection and improved pre-diction of the presence, growth, movement,and toxicity of toxic algal species.

More timely detection of non-native speciesand improved predictions of the probabilitythey will become invasive species. More timely detection and improved pre-dictions of mass mortalities of fish, marinemammals and birds.

Improved predictions of the effects of habitatmodification and loss on species diversity.

Annual report of the spatial distribution (GIS) of biologically structured habi-tats by region and globally (specified as tidal marsh, mangrove stands, sea-grasses, macrobenthic algae, coral reefs and shellfish beds). Annual report of the number of marine and estuarine at risk species that areincreasing, decreasing or stable by region and globally.

Weekly hindcasts of the sea surface chlorophyll-a field (mean for past week)for coastal waters < 200 m in depth by region.

Annual report of the proportion of brackish water (< 32 psi) that experienceshypoxia for periods of 1 month or more by region and globally (in terms ofsurface area).Annual report of the frequency of harmful algal events that have high, medi-um, and low intensity in terms of both spatial and temporal extent for eachregion and U.S. coastal waters.

For hot spots (areas and seasons that have a history of HAB events), weeklyreports on the distribution and abundance of selected HAB species.

For hot spots, weekly forecasts (updated daily) of the trajectory of HABs andwhere and when blooms are likely to affect beaches, shellfish beds and aqua-culture operations.Annual report on the occurrence of non-native species in semi-enclosed bod-ies of water for each region where occurrence is measured in terms of bothsurface area affected and number of species.Annual report on the frequency of strandings and mass mortalities of marineorganisms for each region and U.S. coastal waters.

For hot spots (areas and seasons with a history of mortality events), weeklyupdates on the occurrence of standings and mortality events.Annual report of the distribution and abundance of marine and estuarine atrisk species relative to the distribution of biologically structured and abiotic(hard and soft bottom substrates, mud flats) habitats.

Table III.1. Examples of objectives and associated products corresponding to the phenomena of interest in the EcosystemHealth category of Table 1.1.

OBJECTIVE PRODUCT

system. If the coastal module is to develop and evolveas patterns of use change (as they surely will) and asthe capacity to observe and analyse changesimproves, there must be an ongoing constructivefeedback between those groups that make measure-ments and provide the data and those that use theresultant data and information for their own purpos-es. Mechanisms will be established to (1) evaluate thefunctioning of the system, (2) assess the value of theinformation produced, and (3) improve the system asnew capabilities become available and user require-ments evolve.

• Capacity BuildingA substantial investment in capacity building by thecommunity of industrialized nations is essential toachieve the goals of the coastal module. Capacitybuilding programmes and mechanisms for sharingknowledge, expertise and technologies must be insti-tutionalised to enable all nations to contribute to andbenefit from the development of the coastal moduleof GOOS. In this regard, the community of nationsmust reject the notion of poverty as a human condi-

tion if effective management and sustainable utiliza-tion of the marine environment and its naturalresources are to be achieved on a global scale (KimHak-su, 2002 Asia-Pacific Forum on Environmentand Development).

• ResearchIt must be recognized at the onset that many of themeasurements, data management protocols, andmodels required for a comprehensive, fully integrat-ed, multi-disciplinary observing system are not oper-ational, that much work is needed to develop anddetermine those products that are most useful, andthat capabilities and resources vary enormouslyamong nations. Hypothesis-driven research thatresults in new knowledge, improved technologies,and more powerful models is of critical importanceto the development of the coastal module of GOOS.Implementation of the coastal module of GOOSmust create a more constructive and timely synergybetween hypothesis-driven research, the detection ofpatterns of variability, and the generation of informa-tion in response to user needs.


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This Design Plan for the Coastal Module includesselection of common variables for a global system ofobservations in coastal environments. The goal is toidentify the minimum number of variables thatmust be measured to detect and predict changesthat are important to the maximum number ofuser groups. The selection process was based on aranking procedure that addresses the needs of users,followed by a consensus-based review derived fromthe expertise and experience of a broad range of sci-entists (Chapter 4). Processes based on this modelshould also be useful for identifying the variables thatwill be measured as part of national and regionalobserving systems.The approaches could be modifiedto identify appropriate socio-economic and publichealth indicators; these will be included in theCoastal Module, but are not considered here.

A. INITIALISING THE PROCESS

An objective and transparent procedure for identi-fying common variables was developed as follows:variables are ranked according to the number ofphenomena they can help to detect and/or predict,with each phenomenon weighted by the number ofuser groups interested in it. The selection processbegins with lists that represent the scope of thecoastal module of GOOS and the variables thatmight be measured in a global system. Four listswere constructed through an iterative consultationwith COOP members:

• User groups. The Coastal Module is intended toserve the needs of many user groups includingindustries, government agencies and ministries,teaching institutions, the public, nongovernmen-tal organizations, and the community of research

scientists. User groups provide or depend upon abroad range of services or products. Theseinclude: the management of coastal ecosystemsand living resources; protection of public health;safeguards for marine operations; and predictionof the effects of anthropogenic influences or cli-mate change. A list of user groups (Table IV.1)guides the selection of common variables; it is notintended to be exhaustive, but rather a reasonablesampling of the spectrum of user groups that arelikely to benefit from the Coastal Module.

• Phenomena of interest include properties andprocesses such as sea-state, coastal erosion oraccretion, changes of living resources or theirhabitats, and chemical contamination of seafood,all of which are detectable and potentially pre-dictable (Table IV.2; Annex II). Users of theCoastal Module will be interested in the occur-rence of or changes in the phenomena of inter-est.

• Variables for detecting and predicting change areproperties or rates that can be measured withknown precision or accuracy (e.g., temperature,bathymetry, and total suspended solids), andwhich could potentially be included in the glob-al system of the coastal module of GOOS (TableIV.3a).The list is not intended to be exhaustive.Rather, it is intended to include variables thatcould, in principle, be measured as part of aglobal infrastructure of sustained, routine, androbustly calibrated observations. These variablesare ranked as described below and then evaluat-ed for selection as common variables for thecoastal module of GOOS. Many variables wereexempted from the process for selecting com-mon variables, either because they will be meas-ured as part of other global observing systems


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ANNEX IV – Procedures for SelectingCommon Variables

and will be incorporated from them into theglobal coastal system, or because they requireregional approaches and will be considered inthe design of national and regional observingsystems (Box IV.1;Table IV.3b).

• Predictive models. Many coastal phenomena can bepredicted with models, ranging from rules ofthumb, through statistical models, to sophisticatedcoupled atmosphere-ocean simulations based onfirst principles (Chapter 5). Predictive modelsinclude nowcasts (modelled fields of propertiesbased on limited observations), to forecasts onscales from hours to decades or longer.All of thesemodels must be driven by observations which arenot necessarily the same as those required todetect the phenomena (e.g., winds need not bemeasured to detect coastal flooding,but they mustbe measured to predict it).A representative list ofmodels is presented in Table IV.4.

B. PROCEDURE FOR RANKING

THE VARIABLES

Ranking for identification of common variables isachieved by weighting the variables according to thenumber of phenomena of interest that they can helpto detect and predict, with each phenomenonweighted by the number of user groups interested init. Decisions are made through an objective andtransparent ranking procedure, based on the lists ofuser groups, phenomena of interest, variables todetect and predict change, and predictive models.

After the lists were carefully reviewed, four matrices(Tables IV.5 – IV.8) were prepared for use in theranking exercise. Ranks of the variables are obtainedby the following steps (see Figure IV.1):

(1) Each phenomenon of interest is scored accord-ing to the number of user groups interested indetecting the occurrence of or change in it(Table IV.5).

(2) Variables are scored by counting the number ofphenomena that each variable can detect changein (Table IV.6).

(3) These variables to detect change are ranked (TableIV.6) according to their scores from step (2),with each phenomenon weighted by the num-ber of user groups interested in it.

(4) Models to predict change are weighted bycounting the number of user groups interestedin each prediction (Table IV.7).

(5) Each variable is scored according to the numberof models that require it for input (Table IV.8).

(6) These variables to predict change are ranked (TableIV.8) according to their scores from step (5), withmodels weighted by the number of user groupsinterested in the predictions, from step (4).

In the ranking exercise, when phenomena of interest,variables, and models were scored, three entries wereallowed: 0 (no or insignificant relevance), 1 (signifi-cant, but partial or indirect relevance), and 2 (directrelevance). The middle category is not a catch-all; arelationship was scored only if it is significant.


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135

Many variables that will be measured as part of theglobal coastal system were not considered in the selec-tion of common variables for one of two reasons: (1)they are or will be measured as part of other globalobserving systems; or (2) the variable is better consid-ered regionally, either because it is not global in extentor because the measurement depends on geographiclocation.

Some observing system variables will be measured byother observing systems, but not necessarily on thescales required by the global coastal system or region-al systems. They include meteorological variables(GCOS, OOPC), pCO2 (OOPC/GCOS); surfaceand groundwater transports of water, nutrients, sedi-ments and contaminants (GTOS) and remotely sensedproperties of surface waters, including ocean colour(CEOS and IGOS).For many of the same reasons thatthey were included in their respective observing sys-tems, they are also needed to describe and predictchange in coastal environments. Observations of thesevariables are thus essential to the Coastal Module ofGOOS, and these shared variables will be included inthe design of the global coastal system. The COOP,working in collaboration with GRAs, must specifyobserving requirements (spatial and temporal resolu-tion, precision and accuracy) for coastal ecosystems.For example, the IGOS Ocean Theme (2000)describes current remote sensing capabilities (researchand operational) and requirements for the global ocean(open ocean case I waters for the most part).The next

step is to extend this analysis into the coastal environ-ment (shallow, closer to the land margin, higher fre-quency variability — case 2 waters for the most part)and to specify requirements for in situ measurementsfor both validation of remotely sensed data productsand the detection of changes in 4 dimensions.Theseissues will be addressed in the COOP implementationplan.

Variables to be considered by GOOS RegionalAlliances (GRAs)

Many variables are demonstrably important for detect-ing and predicting change in coastal systems, but theyare not appropriate for global implementation. Theyare:

Variables of regional significance that are not global inextent (e.g., sea ice).Categories of variables that would be defined or meas-ured differently depending on geographic location(e.g., extent of biologically structured habitat; includ-ing coral reefs, oyster reefs, mangrove forests, seagrassbeds, and kelp beds).

Although these categories of variables were not con-sidered for the global coastal system, they are essentialto describing change in coastal regions, and it isexpected that they will be considered for implementa-tion by GRAs. Some examples are presented in TableIV.3b.

BOX IV.1.VARIABLES MEASURED AS PART OF OTHER INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING

SYSTEMS AND SHARED BY THE COASTAL MODULE OF GOOS


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Commercial

Government

Public / NGO

Research &Education

U1U2U3U4U5U6U7U8U9U10U11U12U13U14U15U16U17U18U19U20U21U22U23U24U25U26U27U28

ShippingMarine energy and mineral extractionInsurance and re-insuranceCoastal engineersFishers (commercial, recreational, artisanal)AgricultureAquacultureHotel - restaurant industry Consulting companiesFisheries managementSearch and rescuePort authorities and servicesWeather servicesGovernment agencies responsible for environmental regulation (pollution issues)Freshwater management/dammingPublic health authoritiesNational security (including navies)Wastewater managementIntegrated coastal managementEmergency response agenciesEcotourism, TourismConservation and amenity (including environmental NGOs)Consumers of seafoodRecreational swimmingRecreational boatingNews mediaEducators Scientific community

Table IV.1. User groups. This list is intended to be a reasonable sampling of the spectrum of user groupsthat are likely to benefit from the Coastal Module. The relative number of users from each sector influencesthe result; users are listed by sector to illustrate the balance that was chosen for this ranking.

ISSUE OF

IMPORTANCE CODE PHENOMENON OF INTEREST


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Marine Services and Public Safety

Public Health

Status (Health) of Marine and Estuarine Ecosystems

Living Marine Resources

P1P2P3P4P5P6P7P8P9P10P11P12P13P14P15P16P17P18P19

Sea stateCoastal floodingSurface currentsRising sea levelChanges in shoreline and shallow water bathymetryChemical contamination of seafoodHuman pathogens in water and shellfishHabitat modification and lossEutrophication / oxygen depletionChanges in species diversityBiological responses to contaminants (pollution)Harmful algal eventsInvasive speciesWater clarityDisease and mass mortalities in marine organismsChemical contamination of the environment (includes oil spills)Harvest of capture fisheriesAquaculture harvestAbundance of exploitable living marine resources

Table IV.2 Phenomena of interest (see Annex II). The Coastal Module should provide observations that can be used to detector predict the occurrence of or changes in these phenomena.

ISSUE OF IMPORTANCE CODE PHENOMENON OF INTEREST

V1V2V3V4V5V6V7V8V9V10V11V12V13V14V15V16V17V18

Attenuation of solar radiation Changes in bathymetry Benthic biomass Benthic species diversity Biological oxygen demand Neutral red assay Cytochrome p450 (biomarker; e.g., oil) Cholinesterase (biomarker; pesticides) Metallothionein (biomarker; trace metals) Currents, and current profiles Dissolved inorganic nutrients (N, P, Si) Dissolved oxygen Eh in sediment Faecal indicators Fisheries: landings and effort Nekton biomass Incident solar radiation Nekton species diversity

V19V20V21V22V23V24V25V26V27V28V29V30V31V32V33V34V35V36

Particulate organic C and N pH Phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll) Phytoplankton species diversity > 20 µm Primary production Salinity Sea level Sediment grain size, organic content Changes in shoreline position Surface waves, direction, spectrum Total organic C and N Total suspended solids Water temperature Zooplankton biomass Zooplankton species diversity Coloured dissolved organic matter - CDOM Seabird abundanceSeabird diversity

CODE VARIABLE TO DETECT OR PREDICT CHANGE CODE VARIABLE TO DETECT OR PREDICT CHANGE

Table IV.3a. Variables for detecting or predicting the occurrence of or changes in the phenomena ofinterest. These are properties or rates that can be measured with known precision or accuracy and whichcould potentially be included in the global coastal system.


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Artificial radionuclidesBio-assays of contaminant effectsBiogenic toxins in sea foodCoastline geomorphologyExtent of biologically structured habitatFisheries: Recruitment rates for exploitable speciesFisheries: By-catchFisheries: Diet of exploitable fish speciesFisheries: Fishing effortFisheries: Landings by speciesFisheries: Locations and frequency of habitat disturbanceFisheries: Size spectrum of exploitable populationsFisheries: Spawning stock biomass of exploitable populationsHuman pathogensMacrobenthic speciesMarine mammals/birds speciesMeiobenthic species

Metal toxins in sea foodMetals/organometalsNekton speciesOptical properties of surface watersPAHsPetroleum hydrocarbonsPharmaceuticalsPhytoplankton speciesPOPsSea iceSediment chemical compositionStrandings and mass mortalitiesSuspended plastics and plastics/liter on seashoreTar balls on the seashoreToxins in humansZooplankton speciesZooplankton biomass

Table IV.3b. Examples of variables for regional and national systems. These variables are essential to detecting and predict-ing change, but they would not be defined in the same way throughout the global system and might not be relevant globally(e.g., sea ice). Lists of variables such as this could be reviewed and considered in the design of regional elements of the CoastalModule. Socio-economic and public health indicators will also be reviewed for the design of regional elements. The GOOSRegional Alliances are expected to take responsibility for many of these factors.

Coastal marine services

Ecosystem health & relationto human health

Living marine resources

M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12M13M14M15M16M17M18M19

Storm surgesWaves CurrentsCoastal erosion Risk assessment: seafood consumptionRisk assessment: direct contactChemical contamination of seafoodHabitat modification / loss HABs - population dynamicsAnoxia / hypoxia Invasive speciesPollution effects - populationWater quality modelCapture fishery production/sustainability Aquaculture production/sustainability - finfishAquaculture production/sustainability - shellfishFisheries: Sequential population analysisFisheries: Community dynamics Fisheries: Ecosystem dynamics

Table IV.4. The representative list of predictive models that was used in the ranking procedure.

CATEGORY CODE PREDICTION


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Although the needs of users figured heavily in theranking, scientists, rather than users, provided pri-mary input for the exercise. Scientific expertise isneeded to fill in the matrices because many of thequestions require technical knowledge: for example,a resort owner is not likely to know what variablesshould be measured to predict beach erosion, andthe operator of a fish farm may not be aware that

many harmful algal blooms can be detected bymeasuring the attenuation of solar radiation. As theCoastal Module is implemented and regional sys-tems are developed, it will be important to involvethe user community in this type of process; it willimprove the representation of user interests andeducate all stakeholders about the benefits ofGOOS in the process.

Figure IV.1. Procedure for ranking variables to detect change. Each phenomenon of interest from Table IV.2 is scored (indi-cated here with lines) for the number of user groups (from Table IV.1) interested in it. Then, each variable to detect or predictchange (Table IV.3) is scored for a phenomenon if it can detect the occurrence of or a change in it. The thickness of lines showshow the phenomena are weighted according to the number of interested user groups. Scores for the variables are then ranked. Pre-dictive models (Table IV.4) replace phenomena of interest in the ranking of variables to predict change. For clarity, only positivescores are represented; during the ranking procedure, scores of 0, 1, or 2 (not relevant, significant, but indirect or partial relevance,directly relevant) were allowed. The scores presented here are for illustration and do not represent the results of the exercise.


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Shipping U1 2 0 2 1 0 0Energy U2 2 1 2 2 0 1Insurance U3 2 2 0 0 0 0Coastal engineers U4 2 2 1 0 0 1

• •• •• •

Boating U25 2 2 0 0 1 2News media U26 0 2 0 2 1 0Educators U27 0 2 1 1 2 0.5Scientists U28 2 2 2 2 2 2

Total Score 12 13 8 8 6 9

P1

P2

P3

… P16

P17

P19

Sea

sta

te

Coa

stal

floo

ding

Sur

face

cur

rent

s

… Che

mic

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min

atio

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t)

Fish

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s ha

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t

Abu

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reso

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s

Phenomenon of Interest(occurrence or change)

User Group

Table IV.5. Weighting of phenomena of interest by user group. This truncated example (see Tables IV.1 andIV.2 for full listings) shows how phenomena of interest are scored according to user groups interested in them(2 for direct interest, 1 for significant but indirect or partial interest). The scores presented here and in the fol-lowing three matrices are for illustration and are somewhat arbitrary. Responses of panellists were used to gen-erate rankings.


141

Attenuation of Solar Radiation V1 0 0 0 0 0 2 18 6Changes in Bathymetry V2 1 2 1 0 0 0 46 2Biological Oxygen Demand V5 0 0 0 2 0 0 16 7.5Currents V10 0 0 2 0 0 0 16 7.5

•••

Surface Waves V28 2 2 0 0 0 0 50 1Total Organic C and N V29 0 0 0 2 0 2 17 4Total Suspended Solids V30 0 0 0 2 0 1 25 5Zooplankton Biomass V32 0 0 0 2 1 2 40 3Weighting of Phenomenonfor User Group 12 13 8 8 6 9

P1

P2

P3

… P16

P17

P19

Sea

sta

te

Coa

stal

floo

ding

Sur

face

cur

rent

s

… Che

mic

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Abu

ndan

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ing

mar

ine

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urce

s

Phenomenon of Interest(occurrence or change)

Variable to detect occurrence or change in the phenomenon

Table IV.6. Procedure for ranking variables to detect change. Variables (fully listed in Table IV.3) are scored (2 for direct rele-vance, 1 for significant but indirect or partial relevance) if they can be measured to detect the occurrence of or change in a phe-nomenon of interest. Otherwise, the score is 0. Each phenomenon is weighted for user groups (bottom row: from Table IV.5) andthe weighted variables are ranked in the final column (rankings among only 8 variables are shown).

Varia

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wei

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Phe

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Ran

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Var

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Det

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Shipping U1 2 2 0 1 1 0Energy U2 2 2 1 0 1 0Insurance U3 2 2 2 0 0 0Coastal engineers U4 2 1 2 1 2 0

• •• •• •

Boating U25 2 2 1 1 0 0News media U26 2 2 1 1 1 1Educators U27 0 0 1 1 1 1Scientists U28 2 1 2 2 1 2

Total Score 14 12 10 7 7 4

M1

M2

M3

… M16

M17

M19

Sto

rm s

urge

s

Wav

es

Coa

stal

ero

sion

… Inva

sive

spe

cies

Wat

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odel

Fish

erie

s: S

eque

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anal

ysis

Predictive Model

User Group

Table IV.7. Weighting of predictive models by user group. The procedure is directly comparable to thatdescribed for weighting phenomena of interest (Table IV.5), but here, models to predict change are scoredaccording to the user groups interested in the prediction. As with the other tables, this truncated example is forillustration; scores of panellists were compiled for the rankings.


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Attenuation of Solar Radiation V1 0 0 0 1 1 1 18 8Changes in Bathymetry V2 2 1 2 0 0 1 64 3Biological Oxygen DemandV5 0 0 0 2 2 2 36 5.5Currents V10 2 2 2 1 2 2 101 1

• •• •• •

Surface Waves V28 2 2 2 0 0 0 72 2Total Organic C and N V29 0 0 0 2 0 2 22 7Total Suspended Solids V30 0 0 2 2 0 2 42 4Zooplankton Biomass V32 0 0 0 2 2 2 36 5.5Weighting of Modelfor User Group 14 12 10 7 7 4

M1

M2

M3

… M16

M17

M19

Sto

rm s

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s

Wav

es

Coa

stal

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… Inva

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cies

Wat

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anal

ysis

Predictive model

Variable to predict change

Table IV.8. Procedure for ranking variables to predict change. The table is directly comparable to that for weighting of variablesby phenomena of interest (Table IV.6), but here, variables for predicting change are scored for each model that needs measure-ment of that variable for input (Table IV.2). Prior to ranking of weighted variables in the final column, each predictive model scoreis weighted for user groups (bottom row: from Table IV.7).

Varia

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Pre

dict

Cha

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C. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RANKING

EXERCISE

The ranking procedure requires individual responsesfor 2,432 relationships between users, phenomena,variables and models. Few if any experts or userscould score each with confidence, yet the processrequires information on each relationship in order togenerate the ranking. The challenge is to obtainexpert guidance from many respondents withoutburdening individuals with the need to provide2,432 responses, many of which might be to ques-tions beyond their expertise or interests.The follow-ing procedure was used to facilitate the rankingprocess:

(1) A group of six COOP panel members met to fillout the four matrices by consensus. Discussions

led to minor modifications of the lists, whichwere altered after consultation with COOP pan-ellists.The results served as provisional scores foreach matrix element.

(2) The matrices were distributed to all panel mem-bers, who were encouraged to fill them out indi-vidually or in small groups, including colleaguesand potential users if possible. Special softwarewas developed to facilitate filling in the matrices.Provisional scores were shown in the matricesfor initial guidance; respondents were asked toendorse or change any or all of the scores. Onlythese endorsements or changes were retained forthe final ranking. Provisional scores were provid-ed so each respondent could generate a com-plete set of scores for ranking without beingforced to focus on questions that he or she didnot wish to answer.

(3) For each element of the four matrices, theendorsements and changes of scores were aver-aged and compiled as illustrated in Tables IV.5 toIV.8 to generate two ranked lists: variables todetect change (and assess current state) and variablesto predict change (Figure IV.2).

(4) The final rankings for the selection process forcommon variables was determined by the betterrank for detection or prediction (Table IV.9). Inthis way, a variable that is particularly importantin either role is favoured. Since one or morerespondent either endorsed or changed each ele-ment of the matrices, the provisional scores car-ried no weight in the final tabulation.

The combined rankings in Table IV.9 provide a basisfor selecting the common variables, but they do notreveal exactly how many variables should be retainedin the final list. Plots of the scores for both detectionand prediction show patterns in the ranked variablesthat can be used for this purpose (Figure IV.2).Vari-ables can be grouped in four categories (A, highestranking to D, lowest ranking) according to disconti-nuities in the distributions of scores for both detec-tion and prediction. Ten variables for detection and13 for prediction fell within the first two groups.Thetwo lists combined comprise the 14 top-ranked vari-ables in Table IV.9.


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Figure IV.2. Variables for detection and predic-tion of change, in ranked order, with their scoresfrom the ranking exercise normalized to the aver-age for either detection or prediction. The vari-ables are grouped in four categories (A, highestranking to D, lowest ranking) according to dis-continuities in the distributions of scores for bothdetection and prediction.

D. REVIEW OF RESULTS AND SELECTION

OF THE COMMON VARIABLES

Results of the matrix process are the first step towardand a principal guide for identifying the commonvariables for the global coastal system.The next stepwas to review the preliminary list of 14 variables toensure that selection of common variables based onthe rankings was acceptable to all Panel membersbased on their expertise and experience. Variableswere retained if it was felt they could be measuredwith sufficient resolution to provide the informationrequired to detect or predict changes in a timelyfashion. Compelling reasons for adding variables tothe list also were considered. Reasons would includelarge benefit relative to the cost for making themeasurement and strong complementarity withmeasurements already on the list.

Upon review, the decision was made to include fae-cal indicators (rank 19) and the attenuation of solarradiation (rank 16) and to drop benthic diversity andsediment Eh.The rationale for making these changesare as follows:

• As documented in Chapter 2, the economic andpublic health impacts of contamination bysewage are severe.This contamination is trackedby routine measurements of faecal indicators.The benefit of including faecal indicators in thelist of common variables, and the relative easeand low cost of implementation, justifies inclu-sion of faecal indicators in the list of commonvariables.

• Observations of the attenuation of solar radia-tion reveal much more than the light availablefor water column or benthic photosynthesis -they reflect changes in the constituents of thewater column as influenced by eutrophicationand sediment load. Secchi depth, a simple meas-ure of attenuation, has been measured routinelyfor many decades and is demonstrably useful fordocumenting change in coastal environments.Requirements for capacity building are minimaland cost is almost nothing. In regions of thedeveloping world influenced by changes in landuse, this may be one of the only quantitativemeasures of water quality that could be madewith adequate resolution to document change.Comparison with more discriminating radio-


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123456789101112131415161718

Sea levelWater temperatureCurrentsChanges in bathymetrySalinitySurface wavesSediment grain size, organic contentBenthic biomassChanges in shoreline positionDissolved oxygenEh in sedimentBenthic species diversityDissolved inorganic nutrients (N, P, Si)Phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll)Phytoplankton species diversity > 20 µmAttenuation of solar radiationNekton species diversityFaecal indicators

192021222324252627282930313233343536

Coloured dissolved organic matter - CDOMFisheries: Landings and effortPrimary productionTotal organic C and NNeutral red assayIncident solar radiationTotal suspended solidsCholinesterase (pesticides)Cytochrome p450 (e.g., oil)Metallothionein (trace metals)Zooplankton biomassParticulate organic C and NZooplankton species diversityBiological oxygen demandPHSeabird diversityNekton biomassSeabird abundance

RANK VARIABLE RANK VARIABLE

Table IV.9. Ranks of the common variables after the first complete ranking exercise. The variables areranked according to the number of phenomena of interest that they can help to detect and predict, witheach phenomenon weighted by the number of user groups interested in it. Final ranks are consistent withthe better rank for detection or prediction.

metric measures of attenuation can be maderoutinely.Thus, the attenuation of solar radiationis included in the list of common variables.

• Although biological diversity is clearly animportant parameter of ecosystem health andthe carrying capacity of ecosystems for livingresources, the identification and enumeration ofspecies globally is a major challenge: targetspecies groups will vary from region to regionand the methods and expertise required are notsuitable at this time for incorporation into aglobal system of routine observations usingtime-tested, standard techniques.

• The routine measurement of sediment Eh in aglobal system may be problematic due to prob-lems with instrument reliability and the need forvertically resolved measurements. This, and thefact that the measurement is somewhat redun-dant with dissolved oxygen, led to the decisionto drop Eh from the list of common variables,with the recognition that this and other variablesmay be added to the system as technologyadvances.

The Panel also decided to list sediment grain size andorganic content as two separate variables, bringingthe number of recommended common variables to15 (Table IV.10). This list of variables for the globalcoastal system is supplemented by the shared vari-ables from other observing systems (Box IV.1; TableIV.10).

This procedure for selecting common variables isonly a first step in deciding which measurementswill be included in the global coastal system.The

purpose of this exercise was to determine at the out-set the most useful variables to observe without con-sidering in detail the methods of measurement, theirfeasibility, or their impact on the ability to detect orpredict changes in a timely fashion.These issues willbe addressed in the implementation plan.

This list of variables for the global coastal system willbe finalized in the implementation plan through animpact versus feasibility (I-F) analysis of potentialtechniques for each variable. Impact is a subjectiveassessment of the relative value of the technique formaking quality measurements of the variable in ques-tion with adequate resolution on the required time-space scales. Feasibility is an appraisal of the degree towhich observational techniques can be used in a rou-tine, sustained and cost-effective fashion, i.e., theextent to which they are operational. For many com-mon variables, more than one measurement tech-nique will be identified depending on regionalcapacities and the applications for which the variableis used. Once the I-F analysis is completed for eachvariable, techniques will be categorized in one of thefollowing four categories: suitable for incorporatinginto the observing system now (operational), suitablefor pre-operational testing, ready for evaluating aspart of a pilot project, or requires additional researchand development.When different measurement sys-tems are employed, comparability of measurementsmust be assured.The same I-F analysis will be appliedto the variables measured as part of other integratedglobal observing systems and recommended to beshared by the Coastal Module. Additional commonvariables may be added as they are needed and rou-tine measurements become feasible.


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147

PHYSICAL

Sea levelTemperatureSalinityCurrentsSurface wavesBathymetryShoreline positionSediment grain sizeAttenuation of solar radiation

CHEMICAL

Sediment organic contentDissolved inorganic nitrogen, phos-phorus, siliconDissolved oxygen

BIOLOGICAL

Benthic biomassPhytoplankton biomassFaecal indicators

Table IV.10. Common variables recommended by the Panel to be measured as part of the global coastal system (Annex IV).Additional variables, shared with other observing systems, are also recommended for inclusion in the global coastal system.

MeteorologicalVariables(GCOS, OOPC)

Air temperatureVector windsHumidityWet and dry precipitationIncident solar radiation

Chemical Variable(Atmosphere / Ocean)(OOPC / GCOS)

pCO2

Remotely Sensed Variablesat the Sea Surface(CEOS and IGOS)

TemperatureSalinityElevation (currents)Roughness (winds)Ocean colour(chlorophyll, attenuation of solarradiation)

Land MarginVariables(GTOS)

Surface and GroundwaterTransports of: • Water• Nutrients• Sediments• Contaminants

Variables Measured as Part of Other Integrated Global Observing Systems and Recommended to be Shared by the Coastal Module

In many cases the references for the specific methodsare annotated. However, many of the detailed meth-ods can be found in three specific reference areas.The Protocols for the Joint Global Flux Study(JGOFS) Core Measurements, (IOC, 1994); Biologi-cal Oceanographic Processes (Parsons et al., 1984a);APractical Handbook of Seawater Analysis (Stricklandand Parsons, 1972) and A Manual of Chemical andBiological Methods for Seawater Analysis (Parsons etal., 1984b).

PHYSICAL VARIABLES

Bathymetry

Water depth affects, directly or indirectly, virtuallyevery indicator of change in coastal ecosystems(Mann, 1976; Petersen et al., 1997; IOC/SCOR2002).The response of marine ecosystems to mete-orological forcing and inputs of water, sediments,nutrients and contaminants are, to a great extent,governed by water depth and the proximity of thebenthos to the air-sea interface.The near-shore zoneis particularly energetic region where waves shoaland interact with the shape of the seabed. In additionto navigational needs, an accurate knowledge ofbathymetry is essential to further the understandingand prediction of coastal processes and predict long-term trends in shoreline evolution. Overall a goodknowledge of bathymetry is critical for the coastalocean observing system.

A number of methods are available to surveybathymetry across the coastal ocean. In deeper water,single beam echosounders have been used to map theseafloor. Although this method is inexpensive, thetemporal and spatial resolution are relatively poor.

Multi-beam acoustic swath mapping systems havebeen used to map large areas of the seafloor withaccuracy on the order of 1 m. Although they offerexcellent spatial resolution, these systems are veryexpensive and the swath width decreases consider-ably in shallow water. Moving closer to shore, near-shore bathymetry can be measured through directcontact with the bed or it can be inferred by meas-uring water depth. Methods of direct measurementinclude the traditional hand-held rod and transit,amphibious vehicles, and survey sleds. These tech-niques can provide accurate results but have limitedspatial and temporal resolution. A single beamechosounder mounted on a jet ski provides a quick,inexpensive, portable survey method that can operatein moderate sea states, shallow water (1 m), and veg-etated environments (Dugan et al., 1999). A motionsensor and GPS receiver must be mounted on the jetski to determine position and orientation. Airbornescanning LIDAR allows seamless surveying across theair-sea interface, providing fast, rapid-response sur-veying of large coastal areas with high spatial andtemporal resolution (Lillycrop et al., 1997).Althoughairborne LIDAR allows access to hazardous andremote regions the accuracy is limited by vegetationand a penetration depth of less than 50 m.The pen-etration depth may be further limited by turbidity.Video imagery analysis is a developing techniquewhereby video images of the near-shore region arecollected from elevated land-based or airborne cam-era platforms. Recently, video image analysisemployed advanced photogrammetric techniquesand linear wave theory to estimate water depth fromwave celerity (Stockdon and Holman, 2000).Although this method offers relatively poor accuracy,it provides an inexpensive means of making long-term measurements of nearshore bathymetry with-


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ANNEX V – Description of the Common Variables

out deploying instruments into a damaging environ-ment. Standardised gridded bathymetric data sets areneeded to provide the boundary conditions for alltypes of hydrodynamic and ecosystem models. Thecompilation of these gridded arrays is a major under-taking, using archived and modern data.

Sea Level

Rapid increases of sea level on time scales of hourscan cause severe flooding of low lying coastal regionsand dramatic loss of life. Rapid decreases in sea levelcan cause problems in the safe navigation of largevessels in shallow water. Sea level is a basic state vari-able of the coastal ocean and is closely related to sur-face currents and the density field. It should thereforenot be surprising that tide gauges can provide a cost-effective way of monitoring variations in the surfaceflow, particularly flows through straits, and the flush-ing rates of coastal embayments. Sea level observa-tions can also be assimilated into shelf models to helpdefine important quantities that are not observeddirectly such as open boundary and initial condi-tions. On time scales of decades and longer, measure-ments of sea level with respect to stable fixed pointson land can provide an indirect measure of verticalcrustal movement, global warming of the world’socean, melting of Antarctic ice sheets, and deep-seacirculation.

The most direct way of measuring sea level is withcoastal tide gauges. Many of these gauges wereinstalled in harbours for navigation purposes and alarge database is now available for analysis. (The data-base managed by the Permanent Service for MeanSea Level contains almost 49,000 station-years ofmonthly and annual mean from over 1,800 tidegauge stations around the world. Approximately2,000 station-years of data are added each year.).There is considerable interest at the present time inusing Global Positioning System measurements attide gauge sites to measure directly the rate of verti-cal land movements with the goal of removing itfrom the observed sea level record (seehttp://www.nbi.ac.uk/psmsl/landmove.html forrecent references.) It is possible to make indirectmeasurements of sea level variability about anunknown mean in offshore regions using bottompressure gauges. If the water density is reasonablyconstant then bottom pressure generally agrees with

sea level to better than one centimetre. Sensor driftcan become a problem for deployments approachinga year in length. Satellite altimeters (e.g.TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason) are providing extremelyvaluable information on the global distribution of sealevel and these data are being assimilated into opera-tional models of the deep ocean.The coastal sea leveldistributions are more difficult to monitor withaltimeters; the high spatial and temporal (e.g. tidal)variability require particular case must be exercised toavoid aliasing sea level and bathymetry.

Currents

This is one of the basic state variables of the coastalocean. Along with the wind, currents control thetransport and distribution of water masses, nutrients,plankton, suspended sediments, point source dis-charges, river plumes, life rafts, oil slicks, sea ice andicebergs, etc. Current patterns are important for nav-igation; the location and design of bridges, piers, off-shore platforms and mariculture operations; and thedevelopment and location of fronts, eddies, andmulti-layered circulation patterns that influence theabundance and distribution of marine organismsthrough their effects on reproduction, feeding, andrecruitment (Powell, 1989; Levin, 1992; Hood et al.,1999).

The coastal velocity field varies on time scales of sec-onds (surface waves) through hours (tides), days(meteorological events) to seasons and years, overhorizontal space scales of 10s of metres to 10s of kilo-metres and vertical scales of 0.1 to 200 metres. It is achallenge to select the appropriate instrument toobserve the appropriate velocity statistics for a partic-ular application. In many short to medium time scalebiological or pollution process studies, it is importantto track a patch of water in which a process is takingplace. Here currents can be observed with surfaceand sub-surface drifters that are carried by the cur-rent and are positioned visually, by ship radars, or byradio, acoustic or satellite positioning systems. Formany other applications one needs to measure cur-rents in a fixed reference frame. This is usuallyaccomplished by mooring current meters for periodsof weeks to months. Older current meters use rotorsor propellers to measure speed; some more recentmodels use electromagnetic flow or travel timeacoustic sensors. Each has advantages and disadvan-


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tages with regard to resolution, accuracy, sensor sta-bility and power requirements.A more recent instru-ment, the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler(ADCP) measures the Doppler shift in back scatteredacoustic signals to estimate both the horizontal andvertical current components at selected distancesfrom the instrument. Instead of a single velocityvalue, these instruments observe the velocity profileover depth ranges of up to 400 metres. ADCPs havesolved the problem of observing changes in velocitywith depth; however, describing the structure of thecurrent field in the horizontal remains a challenge.Current meters and their moorings are expensiveand it is difficult to fund an array that covers suffi-cient area with a sufficiently fine resolution to resolveall of the features of interest.ADCPs are also mount-ed on research vessels and these can be used toexplore the horizontal structure of a current field.Surface current patterns can be observed by measur-ing the frequency-dependent Bragg back scatteringof an HF radio signal by surface waves.The Dopplershift of the back-scattered signal is analysed to inferthe axial component of the surface current. By usingtwo or more transceiver stations one can estimate thehorizontal surface current over a selected shelfregion.These systems, called CODAR, have ranges of100-150 km, with horizontal resolution of order 3km. Combinations of CODAR systems and mooredADCPs can describe the 3D structure of currentfields in shelf and coastal regions.

Surface Waves

Waves and associated turbulence have significanteffects on a wide range of processes from coastal ero-sion and sediment transport to species compositionof littoral communities, habitat loss or modification,extent of anoxia and the dispersal of oil slicks. Theimportance of waves to safe navigation is undeniableand is reflected in the operational wave forecastingsystems that are run by meteorological centres inmany nations. Coastal flooding is often the result ofa combination of high tide, surge and waves.They area major determinant of beach dynamics and can gen-erate mean alongshore currents. Ocean surface wavesare one of the most important mechanisms for two-way coupling of the atmosphere and ocean: whenwaves are generated by winds, some of the atmos-pheric momentum that would otherwise pass direct-ly into currents is radiated away from the generation

area.Waves are also responsible for a feedback of theocean surface to the atmosphere through their mod-ifications of the wind stress that drives them.

Systematic wave measurements have been made forthe last several decades. During the early half of thetwentieth century visual observations from transportand passenger ships constituted the bulk of the avail-able wave data. These were referenced to the well-known Beaufort scale, relating wave heights andwind speeds to features on the sea surface, such as theprevalence of whitecaps, spray, streaks and foam(http://lavoieverte.qc.ec.gc.ca/meteo/secrets_stlau-rent/beaufort_scale_e.htm). Although the Beaufortscale is still used, instrumented measurements havesince replaced it in all scientific field experiments. insitu instruments are usually buoys. Operational buoyssuch as archived by national governments, usuallymeasure only wave heights, obtained fromaccelerometers. These instruments have beendeployed for the last two decades, off N. America,Europe, Japan and other areas.

For dedicated field experiments, during this time,directional buoys are used. These measure the threebasic components of pitch and roll. Modern direc-tional waveriders are about a meter in diameter,allowing easy deployment, are powered by batteriesor by solar panels.Wave height data can be transmit-ted via satellite for assimilation into real-time marineforecasts. More intensive experiments in coastalwaters may involve wave staff arrays, as deployed viaa spar buoy, for example as in the recent Sandy-Duckcampaign (http://anole.rsmas.miami.edu/people/mdonelan.html) off North Carolina. Comparabledirectional measurements (to directional waveriderbuoy) are also being made from bottom ADCP cur-rent-profiling instruments http://www.adcp.com/waves.html particularly for shallow and coastalwaters. Remotely sensed data from satellites involvesimages from altimeters and SAR (synthetic apertureradar) instruments.The basic physical mechanisms arereasonably well understood (Hasselmann et al.,1985), and have been reviewed recently by Dowd etal., (2001). Recently the state-of-the-art for airborneremote sensing has moved to SRA (Surface ContourRadar) which is a scanning radar that images thewave topography and the resultant data is trans-formed into directional wave spectra (Walsh et al.,1996).


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Temperature

Temperature is one of the key state variables ofphysical oceanography and directly affects circula-tion and mixing. It is an indicator of both short andlong time scale changes in thermodynamic condi-tions.Temperature and salinity data can also be usedtogether for water mass tracing and for water massmixing estimates.They are also used for computingdynamic height, which can be used for determininghorizontal geostrophic currents with respect to areference level at depth. By using temperature alongwith salinity and pressure measurements, water den-sity can be easily determined using a well-knownequation of state. Stratification, or a gradient in den-sity in the vertical dimension, is one of the impor-tant parameters relevant to mixing. Two commonforms of mixing processes involve (1) gravitationalinstability: denser water temporarily overlying lessdense water and (2) shear instability. Chemical andbiological species are transported and mixed as aresult of density and thus temperature variability ona range of time and space scales. In particular, manychemical and biological processes are affected byand often correlated with temperature on timescales of a day, the annual cycle, and on to the inter-annual (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation) anddecadal (North Atlantic Oscillation and PacificDecadal Oscillation) scales. Long-term changes intemperature may affect the health of kelp, coralreefs, and generally ecosystem structures (e.g., fre-quency of harmful algal blooms) and populationdynamics and fisheries.

Measurements of temperature are now most com-monly measured in situ electronically using thermis-tors (reviews by Dickey et al., 1998; Dickey, 2002).These are used as part of shipboard profiling con-ductivity-temperature-pressure (CTD) systems aswell as autonomous sampling platforms includingmoorings, drifters, profiling floats, autonomousunderwater vehicles (AUVs), and gliders. They canalso be deployed ship-based or airborne expendablebathythermographs (XBTs and AXBTs, respective-ly). Aircraft and satellite platforms can provide seasurface temperature measurements regionally andglobally. Each platform has specific advantages interms of temporal and spatial resolution and coverage(e.g., Dickey, 2002).

Salinity

Salinity, like temperature, is a key variable of physicaloceanography. Many of the points made concerningtemperature above are relevant for salinity and meas-urements of the two are frequently done concurrent-ly when possible in order to maximize informationalcontent in regard to circulation and mixing. In coastalregions, variability in salinity often dominates temper-ature in terms of importance for stratification, mixing,and water movement because of freshwater inputthrough rivers and groundwater (e.g., buoyancy driv-en flows), especially during storm events. Horizontalfronts in salinity are common features. Salinity is oftenwell correlated with coloured dissolved organic matter(CDOM) concentrations. Salinity changes, like tem-perature, are important for many marine organismsand the coastal ecosystem in general.

Salinity is typically measured using concurrent con-ductivity and temperature (e.g., CTD) measurementsdeployed from the platforms described in the temper-ature subsection (reviews by Dickey et al., 1998; Dick-ey, 2002). Special expendable devices (XBTs withadded conductivity sensor) are available. Remote sens-ing of salinity using aircraft is being developed forcoastal applications and some demonstration experi-ments have been successfully executed. Extension tosatellite-based measurements is in the research anddevelopment stage at present. Two salinity remotesensing satellites are currently under development byESA and NASA with launches scheduled for 2006-07.These satellites are expected to have sensor accuracyand precision and spatial resolution suitable for openocean and coastal applications.

Shore Line Position

The present position of the coastline is affected by agreat number of factors some linked to natural caus-es (dynamic coastal processes) and others to humaninfluence in the coastal zone.As a result of the inter-action of these factors the coastline can become sta-ble, accrete (deposition) or recede (erosion). Two ofthe main problems related to erosion are related tohuman occupation of the coastline (urbanization),and loss of natural habitats.

For purposes of coastline management and land-useplanning, records of coastline changes over the last


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hundred years or at least several decades, providesevidence of medium-term erosion rates. Certaincoastal locations have experienced drastic shorelinedisplacement (on the order of 3 to 10 m/year) dueentirely to natural processes over scales of decades. Ifwe add the effect of extreme events like hurricanes,this rate can be even higher.

The historic evolution of the coastline should bedetermined using selected methods according theregional capabilities and resources. In the more sim-ple case, all the overlapping aerial photographic cov-erage available should be obtained. For best results, aspacing of 5 to 10-year intervals is required. In orderto be able to obtain good results, distortions in thephotographs must be corrected. The best scales forcomparison are under 1:20,000. In areas where theerosion problems are accentuated, satellite photos canbe used for the same purpose. During the last fiveyears, DGPS (Digital Global Positioning System) sur-veys have been completed more frequently (month-ly or yearly) to monitor the coastline.

Once the “critical areas” to be monitored are deter-mined, a programme of benchmarked beach profilemonitoring should be planned. Beach profiles surveyshould be conducted frequently (weekly or monthly)and extreme events monitored. Repeat DGPS sur-veys can also be used as a powerful tool to monitorzone of coastal retreat or areas of “habitat loss.”

Attenuation of Solar Radiation

Light is the critically important factor for photosyn-thesis, and photosynthesis supports most biologicalproduction in the ocean; in turn, light is required forvision, and vision is essential to many trophic inter-actions and reproductive behaviours which structuremarine ecosystems. Consequently, variations inunderwater light due to the attenuation of solar radi-ation with depth strongly influence primary produc-tion and food web dynamics, and they play a key rolein determining the extent of habitats such as coralreefs, seagrass beds and kelp forests.

The attenuation of solar radiation in the water isdetermined by constituents that absorb and scatterlight. These include phytoplankton, suspended sedi-ment, and coloured dissolved organic matter(CDOM or gelbstoff). Thus, observations of the

attenuation of solar radiation reveal much more thanthe light available for photosynthesis or vision —they reflect changes in the constituents of the watercolumn as influenced by eutrophication, sedimentload and runoff from land.

The attenuation of solar radiation can be measuredor estimated using several approaches:

• The Secchi Disk, a 30-cm white plate, is loweredinto the water until it is no longer visible (theSecchi depth). Easily and inexpensively, Secchidepth provides a quantitative, though impreciserecord of water clarity. It has been measuredroutinely for many decades and is demonstrablyuseful for documenting change in coastal envi-ronments. Requirements for training are mini-mal and cost is almost nothing. In regions of theworld with limited resources for ocean observa-tion, this may be one of the only quantitativemeasures of water quality that could be madewith adequate resolution to document change.

• Attenuation of photosynthetically active radia-tion (PAR; 400 - 700 nm) is estimated with pro-filing instruments.The depth of 1% surface PARis a useful and readily interpretable variable thatcan be measured routinely in a consistent way inwaters of sufficient depth. The measurement ofPAR attenuation in a global system could beproblematic because routine procedures do notexist for calibrating sensor response to subsurfaceirradiance spectra.

• Penetration of sunlight in one narrow waveband(e.g., 490 nm) is readily measured with sensorsthat can be rigorously calibrated. Subsurface lay-ers of absorbing material can be detected withprofiling instruments or with chains of sensorson moorings, but the nature of the absorbingmaterial cannot be inferred.

• Attenuation at several wavelengths can be meas-ured with radiometers on profiling instrumentsor moorings. Concentrations of chlorophyll a,CDOM and suspended sediment can be esti-mated in much the same way as for oceancolour, except that subsurface features such aslayers can be resolved. The approach is not aswell developed as for ocean colour, however.

• Measurements of water leaving radiance (oceancolour) from radiometers on ships, aircraft and


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satellites can be used to estimate the attenua-tion of sunlight in surface waters. When sus-pended sediment is a dominant influence, sen-sors designed to measure sea surface tempera-ture can also be used to derive estimates ofwater clarity.

Sediment Grain Size

Sediment type and composition (including grain sizedistribution) are major factors governing the distri-bution of benthic organisms, sediment transport andbottom friction. Sediment transport has a directeffect on the bathymetry of coastal regions, includingrelatively rapid changes in coastline associated withthe in filling of jetties, beach loss, and migration ofmanmade and natural channels. Other bathymetriceffects include the migration and growth of sandridges (with length scales on the order of a tidalexcursion), wave energy refraction, reflection anddissipation over sand bars, and the evolution andgrowth of ebb-tidal deltas. Bottom sediment typeand composition exert strong control over local sed-iment resuspension. High concentrations of suspend-ed sediment can generate sediment size-dependent,apparent density stratification near the bed.This strat-ification feeds back into the estimation of bottomshear stress and friction.

The techniques commonly used for granulometricanalysis are: (1) sieving and pipetting, and (2) set-tling. Sieving is effective for grains that are sand sizeand coarser (> 0.062 mm.). For mud which is com-posed of silt (< 0.062 mm and > 0.0039 mm) andclay (< 0.0039 mm) the grain size is determined bysedimentation, settling in water filled tube. In thesieving method, the sample (generally more than 20grams) is shaken through a series of screen, and theparticles retained on each screen are weighed toobtain the weight frequency distribution of thesample.The finer material (silt and clay) are analysedby settling method using a simple pipette or a sedi-mentation balance. The settling velocities of thegrains are converted to sizes with the help ofStokes´s Law (Ws = Cd2) where: Ws is settlingvelocity; d is grain diameter and C includes the var-ious constants represented by: particle density, fluiddensity, acceleration of gravity and fluid viscosity.Both the sieved and the pipetted data are merged todetermine grain size distribution.

In a settling tube, the sand material (0.50 to 0.75grams) is allowed to settle through a long column ofwater, and the amount of sediments settled are auto-matically recorded against time with the help of ananalytical balance. Gibbs et al. (1971) developed anempirical equation to predict fall velocities for differ-ent particle sizes and water temperatures. Most mod-ern equipment yields continuous records of settlingtimes. Whereas Stokes´s Law is not valid for sizesgreater than 0.1 mm but the Impact Law (Ws =C2d) is, the settling times are converted to grainsizes with the help of experimentally determinedcurves for single, spherical quartz grains. Correc-tions for grain shape and density are necessarybecause both have a great influence on settlingvelocity.These corrections can be made by conver-sion of sphere diameters produced with Gibbsequation to that of natural grains using the equationof Baba and Komar (1981).There exists no knownmethod of measuring settling velocity of gravel andcoarser grained sediments in the laboratory. Thisforces the merging of data derived by settling veloc-ities with sieve data as a reasonable alternative toaccount for all size classes. Once the raw data on the“size” distribution of samples, various means toobtain summary statistical parameters that representcharacteristics of these distribution exists.

CHEMICAL VARIABLES

Organic Matter in Sediments

Most sediments contain some remains of theorganisms that were deposited with the sediment.In many sediments, these remains are no longerrecognizable, but occur as widely disseminateddecomposition products of cellular material orskeletal units. The abundance of organic materialcan provide information about the sedimentsource, as well as, the depositional environment,such as productivity of the overlying waters(upwelling areas), dissolved oxygen, and at leastindirectly, the activity of bottom currents at theboundary layer sediment-water. Generally, inmarine and estuarine sediments the total content oforganic matter increases directly with the amountof fine sediments, specifically mud (silt+clay).

Carbon, the most abundant element, constitutesabout half of the tissue on an ash-free basis. Thus


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organic carbon analysis provides the most sensitiveand reliable way for the abundance of biogeneousmaterial in the sediment. Nitrogen and phosphorusare much less abundant than carbon and exhibitmuch greater variation. Sulphur also occurs as a con-stituent of certain organic compounds, but its abun-dance in sediments is not a useful indicator of theabundance of organic matter. Although we are con-sidering organic matter in terms of carbon, nitrogen,phosphorus, and other elements, it actually consists ofa complex mixture of high molecular weight com-pounds including, lipids, carbohydrates, proteins, pig-ments and cellulose.

A complete analysis of the organic matter in sedi-ments would ideally include the abundance of allcompounds.

There are three main approaches to analyse organicmatter:

• Weight loss by ignition or oxidation by H2O2.Weight loss on ignition is based on weight lossof sample heated to 550 0C for four hours. It isa simple and rapid technique. Minimal equip-ment is required. Such methodology, however,have a poor reproducibility and is not useful inclay-rich sediments. The oxidation by H2O2

has the same issues as loss on ignition, howev-er the reproducibility may be fair to poor anddetects only easily oxidized components.

• Wet-oxidation techniques. Basically thesetechniques involve using a strong oxidizingagent such as chromic acid or potassium per-manganate in an acid, (usually sulphur acid) tooxidize organic matter.

• Elemental analysis. This is the preferredmethodology. This analytical procedure selec-tively oxidizes or breaks down the carboncompounds and measures the gases released.For total carbon determination it is essentialthat all carbon compounds are broken down oroxidized.The higher the temperature the morereproducible the results. This analysis uses acombustion method in a pure oxygen environ-ment to convert the accurately weighed sam-ple into the simple gases CO2, H2O, and N2.This is the preferred method but initial pur-chase to the CHN analyser and consumablesare expensive.

Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen, Phosphorus andSilica

External loads and internal stocks of nutrient (inor-ganic and organic) drive the supply of organic mat-ter in marine ecosystems, thus the concentrations ofnutrients provide indirect information on the gener-al trophic status from oligotrophy to hypertrophy.Nutrients of interest are nitrogen, phosphorus andsilica. Concentrations in the euphotic zone are oftenlow in the presence of phytoplankton growth. Dur-ing non-growth periods dissolved inorganic nutrientconcentrations are much higher and yield informa-tion about the carrying capacity of the coastalecosystems and on decadal scale changes in nutrientavailability. Below the euphotic zone and/or pycno-clines, higher nutrient concentrations are the result ofremineralisation in the water column and reflux fromthe sediments. Highest concentrations are encoun-tered at the river mouths where changes in concen-trations indicate varying precipitation patterns andchanges in human land use.Variations in concentra-tions available for the primary production of organicmatter depend on physical, chemical and biologicalprocesses that govern external loads, uptake, recy-cling, export to aphotic depths and sediments, as wellas burial in and reflux from the sediments.As there isno linear relationship between human mediatedexternal loads and concentrations of dissolved inor-ganic nutrients in the system; long term measure-ments of nutrients are needed in concert with meas-urements of related environmental variables (temper-ature, salinity, dissolved oxygen) for the detection ofdecadal and secular trends in the effects of anthro-pogenic nutrient loading on water quality and livingmarine resources. Besides the impacts of changes intotal amount, major deviations in the ratios of dis-solved inorganic nutrient concentrations (N:P:Si)from that of the requirements of primary producerscan have profound consequences in terms of speciessuccession and the occurrence of HABs. Such devia-tions may also indicate changes in nitrogen fixationand denitrification.

When drawn from water bottles samples for nutrientanalysis should be taken immediately after those fordissolved oxygen from the water bottle. Sample maybe frozen at -20 0C. Prolonged storage of samples isnot advisable, even if deep-frozen. Besides samplingfrom discrete depth (water bottles) continuous flow


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analyses is recommended for high spatial resolution,particularly when combined with an auto-analyser.The principle of the nutrient analysis, automatedand manual, is a quantitative chemical conversion ofthe nutrient in question into a coloured substances,the extinctions of which can be measured spec-trophotometrically. For dissolved inorganic nitrogenthe reactive species nitrate, nitrite and ammoniashould be measured. Absolutely clean proceduresare needed, as particularly ammonia and phosphateare sensitive to contamination. Concentrationsshould be given in molar units (µmol kg-1). Adetailed description of the methods includingdetection limits, reagents and quality assurance pro-cedures is given in the JGOFS Protocols (1996,JGOFS Report No. 19, 170 pp.).

Dissolved Oxygen

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is an important habitatparameter for both aerobic and anaerobic het-erotrophic organisms. The distribution of dissolvedoxygen is an integrative measure of the dynamicbalance between photosynthetic oxygen produc-tion, biological and chemical consumption, physicaltransport and exchange processes across the air-seainterface. Changes in dissolved oxygen provide ameans to assess (1) the trophic status (oligotrophicto hypertrophic) and (2) the alteration of habitats(e.g., development of anoxia). The calculated per-cent saturation of oxygen is also a measure to dif-ferentiate between situations of excess autotrophicproduction (and thus export of organicmatter/nutrients from the euphotic zone) and thoseof a balance between autotrophy and heterotrophy(conservation of organic carbon nutrients withinthe euphotic zone). Oxygen concentrations indicatethe extent to which coastal ecosystems are sourcesor sinks of organic carbon and changes in the bio-geochemical cycles of biologically important ele-ments including nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron.Thus, changes in dissolved oxygen are related tomany indicators of environmental change includingaccumulations of organic matter, harmful algalblooms (HABs), carbon storage and export, habitatloss, changes in biodiversity, and fish recruitment.Long-term measurements of DO (together withrelated variables such as temperature, salinity, nutri-ents and phytoplankton biomass) are needed todetect and predict the temporal and spatial extent of

changes in coastal ecosystems that are caused bynatural variability and anthropogenic activities(nutrient inputs and exploitation of livingresources).

When using water bottles samples for oxygen are thefirst to be drawn from a water bottle to avoid con-tamination from atmospheric oxygen.This must alsobe avoided when filling the sample flask, particularlywhen the water is undersaturated with oxygen.Theanalysis follows the Winkler procedure, whichthrough several reagents forms an amount of iodineequivalent to the oxygen content of the sample.Thisis titrated then with a thiosulfate.The endpoint maydetermine either visually or by a detector for UV-transmission, or potentiometric. These differentassessments of the endpoint give comparable preci-sion. Oxygen may also be measured by probes con-nected to the CTD system as well as moorings, plat-forms and autonomous vehicles to increase spatial ortemporal resolution, however, these results have to becalibrated frequently by a Winkler procedure. Con-centrations should be given as number of micromolesof the gas O2 in seawater (µmol kg-1). A detaileddescription of the method and of quality assuranceprocedures is given in the JGOFS Protocols (1996,JGOFS report No. 19, 170 pp.).

BIOLOGICAL VARIABLES

Benthic Biomass

Benthic organisms are animals living on the seabed.Some of them (e.g. sea cucumbers, crabs, shrimps,urchins and sea stars) may dwell on the surface of theseabed, and they are called epifaunal benthos.Thoseburrow into sediment (e.g. worms, clams and bur-rowing anemones) are called infaunal benthos.Marine benthos play an important role in marinefood chain, and provide important food sources forfisheries.They also play an important role in decom-position of organic matters and nutrient recycling.Since most benthic animals have limited range andare relative long lived, conditions of benthic commu-nities are often indicative of environmental changesand pollution occurring in the area.

Benthic biomass refers to the biomass of benthic ani-mals.Total benthic biomass may provide useful infor-


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mation on the general condition of benthic commu-nities. Increase in organic/nutrient input often resultin changes in benthic biomass, and changes in speciesnumber, abundance and benthic biomass (SAB) alongpollution gradient have been well documented. As ageneral rule, as organic matter increases slightly, therewill be an increase in number of species. Furtherincrease in organic matter createsan increase in ben-thic biomass, until a point (the “ecotone point”) isreached, species, abundance and biomass will alldecrease sharply. Provided the Productivity/Biomass(P/B ratio) is known, benthic biomass may be usedto extrapolate secondary productivity of benthic ani-mals. In an unstressed environment, the biomasscurve is always above the abundance curve whereasin severely stressed environment the abundance curveis above the biomass curve. Under an intermediatelevel of stress, the two curves will cross each other.

Benthic biomass is easy to measure. Infaunal benthosis often sampled by grabs (e.g. van Veen grab, SmithMcIntyre grab or Petersen grab, depends on sedimenttype and sea conditions). The sediment samples arenormally sieved in running seawater (using a 0.5 mmor 1 mm mesh), and animals retained on the mesh arecollected, preserved (in 4% buffered formalin), identi-fied and their biomass measured. Because of theirsmall size, 0.1% rose Bengal in seawater may be usedto stain the animals in order to facilitate sorting. Sugarflotation method may also be used to extract smallsize animals from sediment. Epifaunal benthos may besampled using a variety of sampling gear such as rockdredge, oyster dredge, anchor dredge, Agasssiz trawl,beam trawl or shrimp trawl, depending upon the typeof seabed and water depth. Unlike sampling by grab(which is generally accepted as quantitative sampling),sampling efficiency of dredging and trawling are nor-mally <50% and samples obtained by dredging andtrawling are, at the best, semi-quantitative. As such,care should be taken when comparing data derivedfrom different studies and different sampling equip-ment. Benthic biomass may be expressed as g wetweight, g dry weight, g ash-free weight, or mg-carbonper unit area (usually m-2).

Phytoplankton Biomass

Phytoplankton are critically important to life in thesea, and their dynamics must be assessed to under-stand the ecological effects of human activities in the

coastal zone, the influences of climate variability oncoastal ecosystems, and the possible causes of vari-ability in fisheries and other living marine resources.Harmful algal events have significant impacts onaquaculture, human health and coastal ecosystemsand these impacts are increasing in many regions; it istherefore very important to describe the occurrenceof harmful species in the context of phytoplanktondynamics worldwide. The contributions of phyto-plankton to food webs and biogeochemical cyclingdepend on their concentration, morphological/bio-chemical characteristics, and growth rates.At a mini-mum therefore, effective assessment of phytoplank-ton in coastal ecosystems requires measurements ofphytoplankton biomass.

Chlorophyll a (Chl a) is the most common proxy forphytoplankton biomass. Of the plant pigments foundin phytoplankton, Chl a (or its variant di-vinyl chloro-phyll a) is the only one that is present in all species ofphytoplankton. Consequently, the concentration ofchlorophyll is a key biological variable in coupled phys-ical/biological models, though caution is requiredbecause the relationship between Chl a and biomass(measured in terms of carbon, nitrogen or dry weight)can vary by over an order of magnitude due to changesin species composition and physiological state. Chloro-phyll a can be measured directly on discrete samplesusing standard extraction and fluorometric or spec-trophotometric methods. High performance liquidchromatography yields more accurate results and meas-urements of co-occurring pigments. However, themethod is slow and expensive. Microscopic examina-tion of preserved samples is the most direct method fordetermining the abundance and estimated biomass ofphytoplankton species; automated methods usingeither flow cytometry or image recognition are beingdeveloped and tested.

Measurements of ocean colour and chlorophyll fluo-rescence are much better suited for continuous orsynoptic observations of variations in Chl a. Near-surface Chl a is estimated from ocean colour detect-ed by sensors on satellites, aircraft, ships, fixed plat-forms and sensors floating at the surface. Assessmentin coastal waters is complicated by co-occurring sub-stances, so direct sampling of surface waters withconcurrent radiometric measurements is used todevelop and validate models for estimating Chl afrom ocean colour.


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Chlorophyll a fluorescence is also measured routine-ly in research and monitoring. Fluorometers onmoorings, autonomous vehicles and ships can pro-vide continuous records related to the variability ofchlorophyll a. Frequent calibration is requiredbecause the relationship between fluorescence andchlorophyll a is strongly influenced by ambient light,species composition and physiological condition ofphytoplankton in ways that are somewhat dependenton the instrument.

Faecal Indicators

A significant portion of the human body wastes andwastewater flows of the populations living in areascontiguous to the sea, laden with pathogenicmicroorganisms, find their way into the world’scoastal waters.The coastal waters of the world, con-tiguous to and in the vicinity of human habitations,are more often than not, polluted with a constantdaily flux of fresh human faecal pathogens.

There is epidemiological evidence that enteric/gas-trointestinal and respiratory diseases can be associat-ed with, and are caused by bathing/swimming inmarine coastal waters contaminated with pathogenicmicroorganisms from domestic wastewater sources.The evidence from 22 highly credible epidemiolog-ical studies, which have been analysed by the WHO,clearly supports the conclusion that the rate of cer-tain enteric and respiratory infections and diseaseamong bathers compared to unexposed non-bathers,increases steadily with increasing concentrations offaecal indicator organisms and have been describedby a series of dose-response relationships.The dose-response relationships presented in these studies pro-vide a sound scientific basis for estimating the risk ofinfection and disease among marine bathers as afunction of the concentration of faecal indicatororganisms in the seawater.

Seafood, particularly filter-feeding bivalves normallyeaten uncooked, is a commonly implicated vehiclefor the transmission of infectious diseases caused byenteric microorganisms, including bacteria and virus-

es, that enter the coastal marine environmentthrough the disposal of urban/domestic wastewaterfrom land based sources or ships to the sea.

Filter feeding bivalve shellfish/molluscs such as oys-ters, mussels, clams and cockles are particular suscep-tible to bacterial and viral contamination since theyfeed by sieving large volumes of seawater, many timestheir own weight, and concentrate and retain foodparticles, including faecal particles containing patho-genic microorganism.Thus, such shellfish, filter-feed-ers, whose breeding areas are often placed nearsources of nutrients such as wastewater outfalls orpolluted estuaries are particularly prone to concen-trate high levels of pathogens.

The hygienic/sanitary quality standards for drinkingwater, recreational waters and shellfish harvestingwaters for the past 100 years have been based ondetermining the concentration of faecal indicatororganisms such as Esherichia coli, coliform bacteriaor faecal coliform bacteria.The public health ration-al for this has been that these easily detectible, non-pathogenic bacteria, which are ubiquities in normalfaces and domestic wastewater serve as universal sur-rogates for the broad spectrum of dozens or evenhundreds of potential water-borne pathogenic bacte-ria, viruses and protozoans. In recent years bacterio-phages have become more accepted as possible indi-cators of viral pollution. However, the only trulyaccurate method of determining the degree of con-tamination of the shellfish harvested in the field or inthe market is to assay them for enteroviruses.

The most authoritative and widely accepted publica-tion with laboratory methods for the detection andquantitative measurement of the concentration ofbacterial faecal indicator organisms, enteroviruses andcoliphages are those contained in the latest edition ofStandard Methods for the Analysis of Water and Waste-water published by the APHA/AWWA/WEF (1998)(American Public Health Association/AmericanWater Works Association and the Water EnvironmentFederation).


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The effects of land-based human activities on theoceans are especially pronounced in coastal marineand estuarine ecosystems (Chapters 1 and 2) andGOOS must rely on GTOS to quantify surface andgroundwater discharges and associated inputs of sed-iments, contaminants, and nutrients. Consequentchanges in coastal waters that impact human healthand safety and their capacity to support goods andservices also affect the socio-economics of coastalStates. For example, freshwater (buoyancy) and nutri-ents (phytoplankton production) from terrestrialecosystems are inputs to coastal water quality modelsthat are used to predict and control human activitieson land (e.g., sewage treatment and discharge, agri-culture); data on human labour pools can be input forfishery models; and coastal storm surge models pro-vide predictions of flood risks that impact insurancerates and are used for evacuating coastal populations.In short, land- and water-based changes in the coastalzone are intertwined by purpose, geographic posi-tion, user groups, variables, and products.These real-ities underscore the importance of coordinating thedevelopment of the coastal modules of GOOS andthe Global Terrestrial Observing System (C-GTOS),and it highlights the need for an integrated approachto the coastal zone within the framework of theIGOS. Planning for the coastal module of GOOS ismuch farther along than that for GTOS. Thus,GTOS can and should build heavily on the design ofthe coastal module of GOOS.

BOUNDARIES BETWEEN THE COASTAL

MODULES OF GOOS AND GTOS

The boundaries of the two coastal modules overlapin many respects. For the purposes of the coastalmodule of GOOS, “coastal” refers to regional

mosaics of habitats including intertidal habitats (man-groves, marshes, mud flats, rocky shores, sandy beach-es), semi-enclosed bodies of water (estuaries, sounds,bays, fjords, gulfs, seas), benthic habitats (coral reefs,seagrass beds, kelp forests, hard and soft bottoms) andthe open waters of the coastal ocean to the seawardlimits of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).GTOS is responsible for freshwater (rivers, streams,lakes and ground water) and terrestrial systems,including coastal drainage basins, barrier islands, andland “reclamation” (land fills). In this context, manyof the phenomena of interest for the coastal moduleof GOOS (Chapter 1) are also of interest to C-GTOS. These include coastal flooding, extremeweather, coastal erosion, trajectories of oil spills andharmful algal blooms, sea-level rise, changes in shore-line, habitat loss, spread of water-borne disease, andaquaculture.Thus, the two systems overlap geograph-ically in the intertidal and this overlap is reflected inthe kinds of phenomena the two systems should beresponsible for detecting and predicting.

The two systems also overlap in terms of the humandimension on at least three fronts. First, human activ-ities are major drivers of environmental changes inboth terrestrial and marine systems and these changeshave socio-economic consequences that affecthuman behaviour. People and their environmentinteract through complex feedback loops that mayhave destabilizing or stabilizing influences. Under-standing the nature of these feedbacks should be ahigh priority for both coastal modules. One chal-lenge to addressing these feedbacks within theobserving system framework are the different scalesof variability that characterize changes in terrestrialand coastal marine and estuarine ecosystems and therelationship of these changes to the scales on which


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ANNEX VI – Linking the CoastalModules of GOOS and GTOS

humans alter these environments, i.e., primary pro-ducers and habitats in coastal marine and estuarineecosystems tend to be more variable on shorter timescales than is typical of terrestrial ecosystems (Chap-ter 1). Thus, while the coastal module of GOOSemphasizes the importance of high-resolution timeseries observations, observations of the dynamics ofterrestrial ecosystems and human activities tend tofocus on larger time scales.Thus, coordination of thetwo coastal programmes requires agreements on thescales of observation that benefit both.

Second, there is much overlap in potential usergroups. Common user groups include coastal engi-neers, agriculture, mining, aquaculture, port authori-ties and services, national weather services and pri-vate sector weather services, land-use planners anddevelopers, government agencies for environmentalprotection, public health authorities, coastal manage-ment, emergency management agencies, coastalcommunities, tourism, conservation groups, recre-ation, news media, educators, and the scientific com-munity. Users that have been previously identified forC-GTOS include the following:

• GTOS and other observing system programmesand in particular those associated with coastalwaters (e.g., COOP, Baltic Operational Oceano-graphic System, BOOS; Global Sea LevelObserving System, GLOSS);

• The research community, including individualscientists and programmes such as the EuropeanLand-Ocean Interaction Studies (ELOISE),Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone(LOICZ), and I-LTER;

• Programmes associated with global change orglobal issues (e.g., IGBP, GPA, Coastal ZoneManagement Centre);

• Conventions, including the UN FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, the RamsarConvention on Wetlands, Convention on Bio-logical Diversity, and Regional Seas Conven-tions;

• Policy makers and environmental managers(e.g., European Environment Agency, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration of theUSA);

• Modellers working the range in scale from par-ticular species populations of economic or socialvalue to global climate change and biosphere

response (e.g., Tool to Assess Regional andGlobal Environmental and health Targets forSustainability [TARGETS, Rotmans and deVries 1997]);

• Non-governmental organizations for industry,transportation, tourism, agriculture, fisheries andenvironmentalism (e.g. European ChemicalIndustry Council, Wetlands international,Birdlife international).

Thus, the "scales" of user may also have to be coor-dinated between the two programmes as well as the"scales" of measurement.

Third, largely as a consequence of one and two, inte-gration of observing elements and regional enhance-ments will involve government agencies that con-tribute to and benefit from both GOOS and GTOS.

DESIGN OF THE COASTAL MODULE

An important element of the observing subsystemfor the coastal module of GOOS is the Network ofCoastal Observations (Chapter 4). Many of thecoastal laboratories that will constitute this Networkhave been identified as part of the Terrestrial Ecosys-tem Monitoring Sites (TEMS) network withinGTOS. In addition, Long-Term Ecological Research(LTER) sites, including coastal sites, are part of theGTOS design and are included in the GTOS Glob-al Hierarchical Observing Strategy (GHOST). Thelatter will play an important role in data acquisitionand processing for the GTOS, and regional synthesiscentres (Chapter 6) may serve both GOOS andGTOS.

Remote sensing is critical to both GOOS andGTOS. It provides spatial coverage unavailable by anyother means.Thus, it is an integral part of GOOS andGTOS and explicitly a hierarchical level withinGHOST. Common modes of remote sensing (espe-cially land-based platforms, satellites and aircraft) willbridge the two coastal programmes. Some sensorswill be unique to each programme, but some arecommon. It will improve the effectiveness and effi-ciency of both programmes if the commonalities canbe identified. Images may be able to be gotten,stored, analysed and managed with cost savings andefficacy.


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The linkages between land and sea and between envi-ronmental changes and socio-economics are highlynational and regional in character.Consequently, coor-dinated development of the coastal module of GOOSand C-GTOS will be most important on the region-al scale – especially in terms of the acquisition andprocessing of in situ observations. Overlap of productsand user groups may promote duplication in observ-ing and data management subsystems. As the designplan for C-GTOS has not been developed, it is notknown how the need for both regional and globalapproaches will be addressed. As the plan begins toform and be implemented, the need may first be toensure collection of information and then to avoidduplication with the coastal module of GOOS. Ifduplication is to be avoided during the implementa-tion of the programmes, considerable coordinationwill be needed, especially for data communicationsand management. The respective implementationplans must address this issue.

In terms of modelling, GTOS has not begun to iden-tify models, but interaction at this level is highly likelyand will need coordination.Coordination may involve(1) joint use of same models (e.g., sediment transport,coastal erosion) and (2) use of separate models that canbe linked (e.g., Storm surge models linked to evacua-tion plan models, and ecosystem models).Two model-ling areas in which interaction is quite obvious arepublic health and effects of anthropogenic activity onecosystems. But others also exist. Furthermore, someissues of modelling are universal.There will be a needfor quality observations and assimilation processes inboth programmes.There is also a need for transparentdecision making for model construction, verification,validation and analysis. Again, the two programmesmust maintain communication among those responsi-ble for modelling.

The data management and communication subsys-tem of the coastal module of GOOS builds on exist-ing systems. GTOS should begin a programme toassess the applicability of these existing systems.Much of the data management and communicationsubsystem will have to conform to the agenciesresponsible for the data. Where the agencies are thesame for both the coastal module of GOOS and C-GTOS, the rules and processes should be the same.Also, some issues are universal (e.g., QA/QC) andtherefore should be similar for both programmes. Butdetails within existing agencies and development ofprocedures for newly formed networks need specialattention. Both observing systems have guidelines,and these guidelines need to be coordinated. Thehierarchical design of the coastal module of GOOSmay be considered by GTOS or compatibility ofGTOS systems to this is needed.

CONCLUSIONS

The coastal module of GTOS is in the early stagesof design. It is clear that linkages with the coastalmodule of GOOS are not only warranted, but alsonecessary for a successful observing system for thecoastal zone.The opportunities for linkage are at alllevels of system design from user groups and thephenomena of interest to observations and datamanagement. There are many opportunities tomake more effective use of resources and to achieveeconomies of scale. But for these to be realized,considerable coordination and collaboration will benecessary. As a first step, GTOS has been represent-ed in the development of the design plan for thecoastal module of GOOS.The next step is to estab-lish a joint committee charged with ensuring thetwo systems are integrated and develop to the ben-efit of both.


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Examples of operational systems, pre-operational andpilot projects, and research programmes that thedesign and implementation of the coastal moduledepend on are listed below. Selectively linkingoperational systems based on user needs (whichincludes meeting the terms and conditions ofinternational conventions and agreements) andenhancing those projects and programmes thatare likely to improve operational capabilities isthe highest priority for initiating the global com-ponent of the coastal module. The summaries ofprogrammes and projects that follow are not intend-ed to be a comprehensive listing of candidate pro-grammes.They are intended to illustrate the kinds ofprogrammes that should be considered. For thoseprogrammes that are considered to be operational,guidelines are needed to officially recognize them asan element of GOOS and for their incorporationinto the coastal module.

Although sustained operational remote sensing ofthe oceans is clearly of fundamental importance toachieving the goals of GOOS, this subject is notaddressed here. Operational satellite capabilitieswith sufficient redundancy to ensure continuity andconsistency among different sensors and missions(sea surface temperature from infrared imagery;global scale sea level, large scale surface currents andwave height, and wind speed from altimetry; oceanvector winds from scatterometry; sea ice, surfacewave spectra, and oil slicks from synthetic apertureradar; sea surface chlorophyll from ocean colour)have focused on open ocean environments and caseI waters (ocean colour) and generally lack the spa-tial resolution required for coastal systems (< 500m), especially for shallow inshore waters and estuar-ies. Remote sensing of coastal ecosystems will be

addressed in detail by the implementation plan forthe coastal module.

OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS

• The CalCOFI is a regional programme that wasestablished by the United States in 1950 inresponse to the collapse of the California sardinefishery. Its goal is to document long-term eco-logical changes in the marine environment(temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations,and the biomass and taxonomic composition ofphytoplankton, zooplankton, and forage fish)that influence the capacity of the CaliforniaCurrent system to support marine fisheries. It isa collaboration between academic institutionsand government agencies (University of Califor-nia, U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, andthe California Department of Fish and Game).The initial programme extended from northernCalifornia to mid-Baja California with a largearray of stations (> 600 stations along 36inshore-offshore transects roughly normal to theCalifornia Current) sampled at monthly inter-vals (hydrocasts, plankton tows). Although theprogramme was reduced in scope in 1984, (< 70stations sampled are quarterly intervals alongtransects between San Diego and San Luis Obis-po), it is among the longest continuous, system-atic, interdisciplinary monitoring programmes ofan open coastal ecosystem in the world whichmeasures many of the core variables identifiedabove (temperature, salinity, nutrients, attenua-tion coefficient, turbidity, phytoplankton bio-mass and floristic composition).

• The CPR survey of the North Atlantic andNorth Sea, which has been conducted monthly


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ANNEX VII – Examples of PotentialBuilding Blocks of the Coastal Module

since 1946, provides data on seasonal, annual andinterannual variations in the abundance andcomposition of phytoplankton and zooplankton(Warner and Hays, 1994).These data have beenused to develop plankton “climatologies” for theregion.They also reveal the effects of basin scaleclimatic variability on the structure and functionof the North Atlantic ecosystem (Fromentin andPlanque, 1996; Beaugrand et al., 2002).This pro-gramme is expanding into the Pacific Ocean andis being incorporated into some LMEs.

• The IBTS of the North Sea has been conduct-ed quarterly since 1970 to assess the distributionand abundance of herring, sprat, mackerel, cod,haddock, whiting, saithe, and Norwegian pout inthe context of distributions of temperature,salinity and nutrient concentrations. This hasallowed the development of “climatologies” forthese species and provides data needed forecosystem-based fishery management.

• BOOS is a collaboration between governmentagencies of the countries surrounding the BalticSea (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia,Russia, Finland, Sweden, and Denmark) that areresponsible for monitoring and modelling theBaltic and for providing marine forecasts andother services for the marine industry, environ-mental organizations, and other end users.Through the shared use of infrastructure, expert-ise and data, the goals of BOOS are to: (1)improve services to meet the requirements ofenvironmental and maritime user groups; (2)increase the cost-effectiveness of investments inocean observations; (3) further develop the mar-ket for operational oceanographic products byidentify new customers; (4) provide high qualitydata and long time series required to advance thescientific understanding of the Baltic Sea; and (5)provide data and forecasts to protect the marineenvironment, conserve biodiversity, and monitorclimate change and variability.

• The GCRMN is an international programmethat was established in 1997 in response to aglobal scale degradation of coral reefs in thetropics from East Africa and Southeast Asia tothe Caribbean. It is sponsored by the IOC,UNEP and IUCN. The goals of the GCRMNare to: (1) improve the conservation, manage-ment and sustainable use of coral reefs and relat-ed coastal ecosystems by providing data and

information on the trends in biophysical statusand social, cultural and economic values of theseecosystems; and (2) provide individuals, organi-zations and governments with the capacity toassess the resources of coral reefs and relatedecosystems and collaborate within a global net-work to document and disseminate data andinformation on their status and trends.The col-lection of data and information on reef statusand trends began in 1997. Regional nodes havebeen created within participating countries tocoordinate training, monitoring, and data man-agement in regions based on the UNEPRegional Seas Programme: Middle East, westernIndian Ocean and east Africa, south Asia, eastAsia, the Pacific, and the Caribbean and tropicalAmericas.The first report on the status of coralreefs was published in 1998 (Wilkinson, 1998).There are at least two important features of theGCRMN that are relevant to coastal modulebeyond the degradation of coral reefs and theliving resources and recreational activities theysupport: (1) its emphasis on community aware-ness through the involvement of all users in thecollection of data on status and trends and (2)the significance of coral reef bleaching as anearly warning and potential effects of global cli-mate change (Wilkinson et al., 1999).

PRE-OPERATIONAL PROJECTS

Two pre-operational projects are highlighted thatillustrate the advanced state of the art of forecastingsystems that are based on observations of physical andmeteorological variables and numerical models ofphysical processes.

• The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) isa collaboration between environmental agenciesof Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, Italy, Israel,Malta, Spain, Norway and the United Kingdom.The overarching goal is the prediction of marineecosystem variability from sea surface tempera-ture and salinity and currents to primary produc-tion on time scales of days to months.The scien-tific rationale for the system is based on thehypothesis that coastal hydrodynamics andecosystem fluctuations are intimately connectedto the large-scale general circulation.The empha-sis to date has been on demonstrating the utility


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of near real time (NRT) forecasts of basin scalecurrents. NRT data from networks of voluntaryobserving ships (SST, SSS), moored autonomousin situ sensors (temperature, salinity, currents), andsatellites (sea surface height, SST) and data assim-ilation techniques are used to produce 3-, 5- and10-day forecasts for 3-month periods for theentire basin.

• An interim partnership of 10 countries in theSouth China Sea region aims to facilitate oper-ational coastal wave and storm surge forecastingfor all of the partners. Based on a previousnational project in Vietnam, a more structured,multi-national, regional project has been imple-mented.A survey of the needs and priorities foroperational forecasting has been conducted toidentify gaps in ocean monitoring networks andnumerical forecasting capabilities. The area isprone to strong winds, waves and storm surgesin connection with tropical cyclones, and con-sequently this project benefits from the supportand contribution by the IOC/WMO TropicalCyclone Programme.The interim partners havemet once for a workshop on operational sys-tems in Hanoi (2002) and will meet again for afollow-up workshop in Malaysia in July, 2003.The goals of the second workshop are: (1) toagree on common, regional priorities of oceanmonitoring; (2) to enable all partners to utilizeand apply a standard suite of numericalwave/storm surge forecasting models; (3) todevelop forecasting and hindcasting scenariosfrom tropical cyclone forcings; (4) to learn bymeans of inverse modelling to define require-ments for an ocean monitoring network in sup-port of forecasting; and, ultimately, (5) tostrengthen the interaction with end users. Thisproject will help to crystallize the developmentof the coastal module of GOOS and of linkagesbetween the open ocean and coastal modules ofGOOS in the region. Consequently, the projectenjoys the support of the IOC Perth Office, theIOC/WESTPAC secretariat in Bangkok, theWMO and the Norwegian MeteorologicalInstitute. Although the project is focused onphysical and meteorological processes at pres-ent, its success is facilitating international col-laboration in the region and catching the inter-est of marine biologists in Indonesia and thePhilippines.

PILOT PROJECTS

Six pilot projects (GOTOS, GHRSST, NSEAM,RAMP, SeagrassNet, and OBIS) are highlightedbelow because they illustrate the broad spectrum ofphenomena of interest that the coastal module isintended to address, and they represent projects thatwere established with the goal of establishing orbecoming part of an operational observing system.

• The Global Ocean Time Series ObservatorySystem (GOTOS) will provide high resolutiontime series of vertical distributions of ocean-cli-mate related properties at fixed locations in bothoceanic and coastal environments. In addition todata from profiling floats and satellites, these dataare critical to improving estimates of ocean-atmosphere gas fluxes, phytoplankton productiv-ity, and bottom processes (geophysical and bio-logical) on regional to global scales. Althoughshipboard sampling at fixed sites is part of themix of platforms, autonomous, moored sensorsfor real time telemetry of meteorological, physi-cal, biological, chemical and geological data isemphasized. Coastal sites are located in regionswhere basin scale ocean variability is likely to beexpressed locally. Sentinel sites are selected to berepresentative of meteorological, physical, chem-ical, biological or geological provinces and toprovide data required to quantify importantprocesses and validate models.

• The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experi-ment (GODAE) High Resolution Sea SurfaceTemperature (GHRSST) pilot project has beenestablished to give international focus and coor-dination to the development of a new genera-tion of global,multi-sensor, high-resolution, SSTproducts. In this decade (2003 - 2013), enhancedocean sampling from satellites (e.g., ENVISAT,EOS,ADEOS, MSG) and in situ platforms (e.g.,Argo and GOTOS) is expected. GHRSST willcapitalize on these developments to demonstratethe benefits of integrated global ocean SSTproducts.The goal is to rapidly and periodicallyprovide high resolution (time and space) SSTproducts that meet the needs of GODAE, thescientific community, operational users and cli-mate applications at a global scale.

• The North Sea Ecosystem Assessment and Man-agement (NSEAM) is a joint project of ICES,


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EuroGOOS, the IOC, and OSPAR (Euro-GOOS Publication 15, October 2000) to assistin the development of an ecosystem-basedapproach to fisheries management.As articulatedat the September, 2001 workshop, the goal ofthis pilot project is to develop an ecosystemapproach to North Sea management that ismore cost-effective and to establish an integrat-ed approach to the management of fisheries andoceanographic data.

• The Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution(RAMP) pilot project is intended to provide sen-sitive rapid assessments of contamination fromdischarges of sewage and chemical pollutants, aswell as of physical stresses associated with landreclamation and development of coastal areas fortourism and industrial activities. RAMP has beendesigned to test and provide easy-to-use, inex-pensive chemical and biological markers that canbe used to assess pollution and improve environ-mental management. A RAMP pilot project wasinitiated in Brazil in 1997. RAMP’s immunoas-say-based tests provide an inexpensive, rapid andhighly selective means of measuring specificchemical compounds and have been used to diag-nose medical conditions for many years. Recent-ly the technology has been directed towards envi-ronmental contaminants in water, food and soilsamples. The analyses can be run by relativelyunskilled personnel in the field and provide obvi-ous advantages for developing countries. Limitedtrials have proved of great interest and some envi-ronmental agencies are discussing incorporationof such techniques for screening. The choice ofdeterminants amenable to detection by the rapidchemical analyses procedures is broad and thusthe most relevant contaminants were selected fol-lowing surveys and discussions with the Brazilianpartners. PAH, PCB’s, organochlorine andorganophosphorous pesticides, selected herbicidesand fungicides have all been identified as relevantenvironmental contaminants/pollutants. Bio-markers used in the RAMP programme are sim-ple to use, inexpensive and reliable.They providea means of detecting deterioration in the condi-tion of biota from contaminated sites. Progress todate in Brazil has been excellent. Based on theearly success of the work, plans have developed toestablish RAMP programmes in the Caribbean,the Black Sea, and Vietnam.

• The global Sea Grass Monitoring Network(SeagrassNet) was established during the 3rdInternational Seagrass Biology Workshop in1998 (Manila, Philippines) to function as theprimary mechanism for serving the data andinformation needed by the World Seagrass Asso-ciation (WSA) to promote research and provideadvice to management agencies and the publicon the protection and restoration of sea grasscommunities. Objectives are: to (1) develop anobserving system to assess the status (areal extentand health) of seagrass ecosystems worldwide;(2) facilitate data and information exchangeamong scientists; (3) develop models to predictthe effects of global climate change and humanactivities on seagrass ecosystems; and (4) enhancetraining and education and disseminate informa-tion on seagrass beds, their importance as essen-tial fish habitat, their ecological significance, andtheir contribution to the well-being of humancoastal populations.

• The Ocean Biogeographical Information Sys-tem (OBIS), part of the Census of Marine Life,is an effort to create and maintain a dynamicglobal data system for marine biological andenvironmental data.The initial vision and strate-gy of OBIS, formulated at the 1st InternationalOBIS Workshop in 1999 (Washington, D.C.), isthat of “an on-line, world-wide marine atlasinfrastructure providing scientists with the capa-bility of operating in a 4-dimensional environ-ment so that analysis, modelling, and mappingcan be accomplished in response to user demandthrough accessing and providing relevant data.”The system will provide a global informationportal where systematic, genetic, ecological, andenvironmental information on marine speciescan be cross-searched and where informationcan be integrated into value added products suchas derived data, maps, and models. OBIS is to bemanaged as a federation of database sources thatallows interoperability among autonomous datasystems. OBIS is an Associate member of theGlobal Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF).

ENABLING RESEARCH

Achieving the goals of the coastal module willdepend to a great extent on the establishment of syn-


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ergistic relations with hypothesis driven research pro-grammes.The knowledge and technologies generat-ed by these programmes will improve the observingsystem through: (1) the development of a more com-prehensive quantitative understanding of the causesand consequences of environmental change; (2) moreeffective and less expensive technologies for real timemonitoring and data telemetry; (3) improved capabil-ities to visualize and analyse change in near real-time;and (4) the development of models for improved pre-diction of current conditions, future events and envi-ronmental changes.

The coastal module of GOOS will provide the spa-tial and temporal framework of observations requiredto understand the global and long-term significanceof results from research on targeted ecosystems. Ahigh priority will be coordination and collaborationamong related programmes to enable timely access toand analysis of the diverse data required to detectchanges in coastal indicators and to develop predic-tive capabilities. Programmes such as LOICZ,GLOBEC,GEOHAB,SIMBIOS, and LMEs are crit-ical to the development of the coastal module.

• The broad goal of Land-Ocean Interaction inthe Coastal Zone (LOICZ) is to determine thefluxes of materials (emphasis on water, sedi-ments, and carbon, nitrogen, and phosphoruscompounds) into, within, and from coastalecosystems. LOICZ activities are organized intofour focus areas: (1) The effects of changes inexternal forcings on coastal fluxes; (2) Coastalbiogeochemistry and global change; (3) Carbonfluxes and trace gas emissions; and (4) Econom-ic and social impacts of global change in coastalsystems.Two major goals to be achieved by theend of this 10-year programme are global esti-mates of C, N and P budgets for the coastalocean and an assessment of specific data andtechniques needed to improve and track changesin these budgets in local ecosystems and onregional to global scales.

Recognizing that LOICZ has a finite “life” (1992-2002, subject to current negotiations in IGBP),mechanisms are needed to ensure that the data,knowledge, tools, and networks developed byLOICZ are incorporated as appropriate. It is expect-ed that the coastal module will encourage the devel-

opment of observing system elements required todocument and predict the consequences of changesin biogeochemical cycles and fluxes to, within andfrom coastal ecosystems; and will promote the use ofnew knowledge and technological advances (sensors,models, data management) generated by LOICZ forapplied purposes and provide the framework ofobservations required to extrapolate research resultsto coastal systems that have not been the subject ofan in-depth LOICZ study.There are two areas wherecollaboration between the coastal module andLOICZ could begin immediately: data managementand applications of the LOICZ coastal typology.

The work of the joint JGOFS/LOICZ ContinentalMargins Task Team will be important in this regard.The major goal of the task team is to determine therole of the continental margins in the fluxes of car-bon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Close collaborationbetween this effort and future development ofGOOS will be required to enable GOOS to effec-tively utilize the scientific knowledge generated bythe continental margins studies. This will enableresearch results from research programmes to beextrapolated to coastal ecosystems on a global scaleusing data from the GOOS.

• The Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) Pro-gramme is developing procedures for assessingand managing the effects of human activities inan ecosystem context. This approach uses a“modular strategy” for linking science-basedassessments of changing states of marine ecosys-tems to the socio-economic benefits of sustain-ing ecosystems goods and services, (Sherman,1994; Sherman and Duda, 1999). LMEs includecoastal drainage basins and the coastal ocean(estuaries to the edge of the continental shelf orthe outer margins of coastal current systems).Most of the world’s coastal zone is divided into50 regional LMEs (the modules) that supportabout 95% of the world’s fisheries.

• The Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics(GLOBEC) project was initiated in 1991 tounderstand and model the effects of physicalforcings on the distribution, diversity and pro-ductivity of animal populations (zooplankton inparticular) in marine ecosystems. Emphasis is on(1) the dynamics of zooplankton populationsrelative to phytoplankton and fish predators, and


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(2) the influence of physical processes on zoo-plankton dynamics. Research projects are organ-ized around 4 themes: (1) building a foundationfor the development of ecosystem modelsthrough retrospective analysis of historical data-bases; (2) conducting process studies; (3) devel-oping predictive models through interdiscipli-nary, coupled modelling-observational systems;and (4) cooperating with other research pro-grammes to understand interactions amongmarine, terrestrial and atmospheric systems.

• The Global Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms(GEOHAB) programme was established in 1998(sponsored by SCOR and the IOC) to providea framework for research designed to improvethe prediction of harmful algal events by deter-mining the mechanisms underlying their popu-lation dynamics through interdisciplinaryresearch, modelling, and an enhanced observa-tional network. Three major questions will beaddressed: (1) What are the environmental fac-tors that determine the changing distribution ofHAB species, their genetic variability and thebiodiversity of associated communities? (2) Whatare the unique adaptations of HAB species thatdetermine when and where they occur and theextent to which they produce harmful effects?(3) What are the effects of human activities (e.g.,nutrient enrichment) on the occurrence ofHABs? How do HAB species, their populationdynamics and community interactions respondto changes in their environment?

GEOHAB will foster scientific advancement in theunderstanding of HABs by encouraging and coordi-nating basic research. International cooperation toconduct research in comparable ecosystems isencouraged. Improved global observing systems will

be required to resolve influences of natural environ-mental factors and anthropogenic effects on distribu-tions and trends in HAB occurrence. This will begreatly facilitated through strong links betweenGEOHAB and GOOS.

• The Sensor Intercomparison and Merger forBiological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies(SIMBIOS) was initiated by NASA in 1994 tofoster information exchange and collaborationbetween satellite missions for the remote sensingof ocean colour. Remote sensing of oceancolour is a high priority for the development ofthe coastal module. Given that ocean colourprovides the only global scale window intomarine ecosystems on synoptic scales, it wouldbe unthinkable to develop plans for monitoringmarine ecosystems without the benefit of satel-lite data on ocean colour. Ongoing and project-ed ocean-colour missions are highly comple-mentary in many important respects, but thesensors employed differ in design and capabili-ties.The goal is to develop methods to combinedata on ocean colour from an array of inde-pendent satellite systems (e.g., SeaWiFS, MOS,MODIS, OCTS, POLDER) to ensure consis-tency and provide data products based on accu-rate and integrated spatial and temporal patternsof ocean colour.The strategy to achieve this tar-gets three goals: (1) quantify the relative accura-cies of products from international ocean-colourmissions; (2) improve the compatibility amongproducts; and (3) develop methods for generat-ing merged global products for more compre-hensive and detailed spatial and temporal cover-age. Of particular importance to the coastalmodule is the development of algorithms forcase 2 waters.


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169

Enabling Research

Pilot Projects

Pre-OperationalElements

Operational Elements

Global

Regional

Global

Regional

Global

Regional

Global

Regional

Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) ProgrammeSensor Intercomparisons and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies(SIMBIOS)World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs)Census of Marine Life (CoML)

Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ)Global Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (GEOHAB)Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA)Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs)

Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), Argo, & GHRSSTGlobal Time Series Observatory SystemGlobal Sea Grass Network (SeagrassNet)Ocean Biogeographical Information System (OBIS)

Adriatic Sea Integrated Coastal Areas and River Basin Management System (ADRICOSM)Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity (CARICOMP)Mediterranean Network to Assess and Upgrade Monitoring andForecasting Activity (MAMA) Quickly Integrated Joint Observing Team (QUIJOTE)Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution (RAMP)

TOPEX/Poseidon Satellite Altimeter Mission

Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS)Vietnamese Forecasting System (VFS)

Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)Global Investigation of Pollution in the Marine Environment (GIPME)International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IODE)International Panel on Harmful Algal Blooms (IPHAB)

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)California Cooperative Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI)Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) SurveyBaltic Operational Observing SystemGlobal Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN)ICES Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS)International Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU)Regional Fishery Bodies (with conventions)Regional Seas Programmes (with conventions)

STAGE SCALE PROGRAMME

Table VII.1. Examples of projects and programmes that provide the scientific and operational basis for the coastal moduleof GOOS. For more information, see Annex IX for a list of corresponding URLs.

GOOS Regional Alliances: The GOOS SteeringCommittee has established policies to guide the devel-opment of GRAs that focus on sustained ocean obser-vations and the associated development of product andservices (http://ioc.unesco.org/gpsbulletin/). GRAsare formed to implement activities that require multi-national coordination to meet national priorities fordetecting and predicting changes in coastal marineenvironments and resources. As such, GRAs shouldprovide the framework for coordinating the synergisticdevelopment of RFBs, RSPs, and LMEs.

To be recognized as a regional alliance, a GRA mustinclude definable elements that contribute to theGOOS in accordance with the GOOS Principles.Based on reviews by GOOS executive bodies and theGSC, a GRA will receive recognition throughendorsement by the I-GOOS followed by approval ofthe Assembly of the IOC. Together with nationalGOOS Programmes, GRAs (including nationalGOOS programmes) are seen as the primary mecha-nism for implementing the integrated design plan forthe coastal module of GOOS. Existing nationalGOOS programmes and GRAs are shown in TableVIII.1.

Regional Fishery Bodies: RFBs have been estab-lished as a mechanism for multilateral management offisheries within regions that extend beyond nationaljurisdictions. The first, the International Council forthe Exploration of the Sea (ICES), was established in1902 for cooperative research and monitoring of theNE Atlantic (including the North Sea and the Baltic)and its resources. Since the formation of ICES, over 30regional fisheries bodies have been established withmissions that range from promoting scientific collabo-ration and providing advice to government ministries

to regulatory authority for fisheries management(Table VIII.2).

Some RFBs have mandates based on geographic areaswhile others target specific species within a geograph-ic area. In general, the activities of RFBs relate to theimpact of fishing on fisheries and ecosystems, theimpact of land-based activities on fisheries, the impactof climate on fisheries, and ecosystem monitoring. Afew RFBs (CCAMLR,GFCM,IATTC,IBSFC,ICES,IPHC, IWC, NASCO, NPAFC, PICES and SPC)explicitly incorporate the concept of ecosystem-basedmanagement, but most have not formally adopted thisapproach.

Regional Seas Programme, Conventions andAction Plans: Beginning in the late 1960s, it was rec-ognized that controlling marine pollution would bemost effective through region-specific agreements.Thefirst agreement of this type was adopted in 1972 (OsloConvention, which has been superseded by theOSPAR Convention), and subsequently (1974) UNEPinitiated the Regional Seas Programme. The UNEPRegional Seas Programme presently includes 14regions (Table VIII.1) with over 140 coastal States andterritories participating in it.There are also two non-UNEP Regional Seas programmes, OSPAR for theArctic and NE Atlantic and HELCOM for the Baltic.

Regional Seas Conventions (RSCs) and action plansare the responsibility of the Division of EnvironmentalConventions and provide the primary mechanism forUNEP to respond to chapter 17 of Agenda 21 (Pro-tection of the oceans, all kinds of seas, includingenclosed and semi-enclosed seas, and coastal areas; andthe protection, rational use and development of theirliving resources).


171

ANNEX VIII – Regional Bodies


172

NW Pac.

NE Pac.

SW Pac.

SE Pac.

NW Atl.

NE Atl.

W Asia

SE Asia

Carib.

Med.

SW Atl.

SE Atl.

Indian Ocean

ArcticAntarctic

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

7)

8)

9)

10)

11)

12)

13)

14)

NEAR-GOOS

Pacific IslandsGOOS

Underdevelopment

BOOSNOOSEuroGOOS

Black SeaGOOSUnderdevelopment

IOCARIBEGOOSEuroGOOSMedGOOS

GOOSAfricaIOGOOS

EuroGOOS

NW Pacific

NE Pacific

East Asian South Pacific

SE Pacific

BalticNorth SeaNE Atlantic

Black Sea

Reg. CoordinationUnit for EastAsian SeasCaribbean

Mediterranean

SW Atlantic

West & Central AfricaEastern AfricaRed Sea & Gulfof AdenSouth Asian

N. Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)Pacific Salmon CommissionPICESNorth Pacific Anadromous Fish CommissionInternational Pacific Halibut CommissionAsian-Pacific Fisheries Commission (APFIC)Inter-American Tropical Tuna CommissionSecretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC)South Pacific Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA)South Pacific Permanent Commission (CPPS)

NW Atlantic Fisheries Organization

International Baltic Sea Fishery CommissionInternational Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)North Atlantic Salmon Conservation OrganizationNE Atlantic Fisheries Commission

Asia-Pacific Fisheries Commission

Western Central Atlantic Fishery Commission

General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean

Joint Technical Commission for Argentina/Uruguay Maritime FrontInternational Commission for the Conservation of AtlanticTunaInternational Commission for SE Atlantic FisheriesFisher Commission for the Eastern Central AtlanticIndian Ocean Tuna CommissionRegional Commission for Fisheries (Arabian Sea) SW Indian Ocean Fishery Commission

North Atlantic Marine Mammal CommissionCommission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources

Table VIII.1. Table VIII.1. National GOOS Programmes (having provided national reports to the GOOS Project Office asof January 2003) and GOOS Regional Alliances (GRAs), Regional Seas Conventions and Action Plans (RSCs), and RegionalFisheries Bodies (RFBs).

REGION NATIONAL GOOS GRAS RSCS RFBS

1) China, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Russian Federation; 2) Canada and U.S.A.; 3) Australia, New Zealand and South PacificApplied Geoscience Commission (on behalf of island nations in the region); 4) Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru; 5) Canada and U.S.A.; 6) Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Holland, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Russian Federation, Spain andUK; 7) Georgia, Russian Federation and Ukraine; 8) Australia, China, Malaysia and Vietnam; 9) Colombia, Cuba and U.S.A.; 10)Croatia, Cyprus, France, Italy, Malta, Slovenia and Spain; 11) Argentina and Brazil; 12) Gambia, Guinea, Nigeria and South Africa;13) Australia, India, Kenya, Mauritius, South Africa, Tanzania and U.S.A; 14) Canada, Norway, Russian Federation and U.S.A.

Regional Seas Programmes are implemented, inmost cases, through legally binding conventionsunder the authority of the contracting parties orintergovernmental bodies. RSCs generally includefive components: environmental assessment, envi-ronmental management (including the control ofland-based sources of pollution), environmentallegislation, institutional arrangements and financialarrangements. The more mature RSCs have devel-oped protocols for implementing global conven-tions and agreements such as the Convention onBiological Diversity (CBD), the Convention onInternational Trade in Endangered Species(CITES), the Basel Convention, and the GlobalProgramme of Action for the Protection of theMarine Environment from Land-Based Activities(GPA)15 .

The Large Marine Ecosystem Approach: Largemarine ecosystems (LMEs) define a scale of obser-vation and research based on the spatial and tempo-ral scales of fish population dynamics and trophicinteractions upon which fish production depends.During the 1990s, the coastal ocean was dividedinto LMEs in order to promote ecosystem-basedmanagement of fisheries.The regions encompassedby LMEs are large (typically in excess of 200,000km2) and are characterized by distinctive hydro-

graphic regimes, geomorphology, productivity, andthe trophic levels of the predominant fisheries(Sherman, 1991). The legal framework for ecosys-tem-based management of living marine resourceswas set forth in the United Nations Convention forthe Law of the Sea.

The approach is based on the implementation of fiverelated modules: (1) productivity (primary productiv-ity, diversity and production of zooplankton, hydro-graphic variability), (2) fishery resources (speciesdiversity, abundance and distribution of species), (3)ecosystem health (extent and quality of habitat, bot-tom water oxygen depletion, harmful algal blooms,diseases in marine organisms, etc.), (4) socio-eco-nomics (effects of human activities on the sustainabil-ity of ecosystem goods and services,http://ioc.unesco.org/gpsbulletin/), and (5) gover-nance (adaptive management, stakeholder participa-tion). Recently, international donor agencies (e.g., theGlobal Environmental Fund and The World Bank)have shown interest in funding regional programmesbased on the LME approach.To date, 30 countries inAsia,Africa, and Eastern Europe have made commit-ments to ecosystem-based assessment and manage-ment practices in support of Chapter 17 in Agenda21 with the initiation of LME projects.


173

15 Recognizing that 80% of pollution in the oceans comes from land-basedsources, the international community in 1995 agreed to initiate the Global Pro-gramme of Action (GPA) for the Protection of the Marine Environment fromLand-Based Activities. The GPA seeks to establish an integrated approach tomanagement and to mobilize support for developing countries to participate.The Regional Seas Programme was identified as key mechanism for implemen-tation of the GPA. The goal is to establish an ecosystem-based approach on aregional scale to ensure integrated and sustained management of the marineenvironment and its living resources.The Montreal Declaration (from the inter-governmental review of the GPA, 30 November, 2001) commits participatingnations to improve and accelerate the implementation of the GPA by “(a) takingappropriate action at national and regional levels to strengthen institutionalcooperation among, inter alia, river-basin authorities, port authorities and coastalzone managers; and to incorporate coastal management considerations into rel-evant legislation and regulations pertaining to watershed management; (b)strengthening the capacity of local and national authorities to obtain and utilizesound scientific information to engage in integrated decision making, withstakeholder participation, and to apply effective institutional and legal frame-works for sustainable coastal management; (c) strengthening the Regional SeasProgramme to play a role in, as appropriate, coordination and cooperation (i) inthe implementation of the GPA, (ii) with other relevant regional organizations,(iii) in regional development and watershed management plans, and (iv) withglobal organizations and programmes relating to implementation of global andregional conventions; (d) improving scientific assessment of the anthropogenicimpacts on the marine environment, including, inter alia, the socio-economicimpacts; (e) enhancing state of the oceans reporting to better measure progresstoward sustainable development goals, informing decision making (such as set-ting management objectives), and improving public awareness and helping assessperformance; and (g) improving technology development and transfer, in accor-dance with the recommendations of the United Nations General Assembly.


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Bay of Bengal

South China Sea

Yellow Sea

Agulhas Current

Benguela Current

Canary Current

Guinea Current

Somali Current

Caribbean Sea

Humboldt CurrentPacific Central America

Baltic Sea

Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives Myan-mar, Sri Lanka, ThailandCambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,Sumatra, Thailand, VietnamChina, Republic of Korea

Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa

Angola, Namibia, South Africa

Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Morocco, SenegalAngola, Benin, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire,Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sao Tome &Principe, Sierra Leone, TogoKenya, Tanzania

Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Colombia, CostaRica, Cuba, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, St. Lucia,Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela (IOCARIBE members)Chile, Ecuador, PeruColumbia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,Mexico, Nicaragua, PanamaDenmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania,Poland, Russia, Sweden

PDF Block B funding approved; executing agency - FAOImplementation funding approved;executing agency - UNEPImplementation funding approved;executing agency - UNDPPDF Block B funding approved; executing agency - UNEPFunding approved; executing agencyUNDPPDF Block funding approved; executing agency - UNEPProject in phase 2; executing agency -UNIDO

PDF Block B funding approved - executing agency UNEPPDF Block A funding approved; executing agency - UNESCO/IOC

In planning phaseIn planning phase

Implementation funding approved;executing agency - World Bank

Table VIII.2. Regions and countries where marine resource ministries (fisheries, environment, finance) are supportive ofecosystem-based resource assessment and management.

LME PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES STATUS

Argo - http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/Biodiversity/BIOMAR – http://www.biomareweb.orgCalCOFI – http://www-mlrg.ucsd.edu/calcofi.htmlCLIVAR – http://www.clivar.ucar.edu/hp.htmlC-GOOS Strategic Design Plan – http://ioc.unesco.org/iocweb/iocpub/iocpdf/i1146.pdfChesapeake Bay Monitoring Programme – http://www.chesapeakebay.net/Program.htmCoastal population – http://www.LDEO.columbia.edu/~small/CoastalPop.htmlCODAR – http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/coolresults/papers/oi_london_kohut.pdfCOOP – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/coop_co.htmEconomic Valuation of Wetlands, Ramsar Convention Bureau, Gland, Switzerland –http://www.ramsar.org/lib_val_e_index.htm.Ecosystem Models – http://www.ecopath.orgEnvironmental Indicators, European System – http://www.e-m-a-i-l.nu/tepi/firstpub.htmEuroGOOS – http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/EUROGOOS/eurogoosindex.htmlGCOS – http://193.135.216.2/web/gcos/gcoshome.htmlGEBCO – http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/gebco/GEOHAB – http://ioc.unesco.org/hab/GEOHAB.htmGESAMP – http://gesamp.imo.orgGLCCS (Global Land Cover Characteristics Database) – http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/glcc.htmlGlobal distribution of people – http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~small/ContPhys.htmlGlobal Monitoring for Environment and Security – http://gmes.jrc.it/Global observing systems information centre – http://www.gos.udel.eduGlobal Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities (GPA) –http://www.gpa.unep.orgGLOBEC – http://www.pml.ac.uk/globec/main.htmGODAE – http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/GODAE/GOOS – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/GOOS Capacity Building Strategy – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/key5.htm#capGOOS 1998 Prospectus, -- http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/Prospe98/Contents.htmlGOOS Products and Services Bulletin – http://ioc.unesco.org/gpsbulletin/GTOS – http://www.fao.org/gtosGTOS Carbon Observation (TCO) data warehouse – http://www.fao.org/gtos/TCO.htmlHOTO – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/hoto.htmIBOY – http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/IBOY/index2.htmlICES – http://www.ices.dk/IGBP – http://www.igbp.kva.seIGBP/OCEANS – http://www.igbp.kva.se/obe/Invasive Species – http://www.invasivespecies.govIOCCG – http://www.ioccg.org


175

ANNEX IX – URLs of Programmes andProjects Relevant to the Coastal Module

of GOOS

IOC-IODE Ocean Portal – http://oceanportal.orgIODE – http://ioc.unesco.org/iode/JCOMM – http://www.wmo.ch/web/aom/marprog/index.htmLMR – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/lmr.htmLOICZ – http://www.nioz.nl/loicz/welcome.htmlMFS – http://www.cineca.it/~mfspp000NEARGOOS – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/NearGOOS/neargoos.htmNon-indigenous species, environmental and economic costs in the United States –http://www.invasivespecies.govOBIS DATABASES

http://habanero.nhm.ukans.edu/FISHNET/http://netviewer.usc.edu/web/index2.htmlhttp://www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral/index.htmlhttp://www.cephbase.utmb.edu/http://www.zoogene.org/

OOPC – http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/oopc.pdfOOSDP – http://www-ocean.tamu.edu/OOSDP/FinalRept/t_of_c.htmlQUIJOTE – http://www.cem.ufpr.br/fisica/quijote.htmRAMSAR (Background Papers on Wetland Values and Functions) – http://www.ramsar.org/values_intro_e.htmSAHFOS – http://www.sahfos.orgSIMBIOS – http://simbios.gsfc.nasa.govSTATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT REPORTS

GEO 2000 - http://www.unep.org/geo2000/Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - www.millenniumassessment.orgPilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems - www.wri.org/wr2000/coast_page.htmlWorld Resources - http://www.wri.org/wr-96-97/96tocful.html

http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-98-99/index.htmlhttp://www.wri.org/wri/wr2000/index.html

State of the Coast - http://state-of-coast.noaa.gov/State of the Nation’s Ecosystems - http://www.heinzctr.org/ecosystems/index.htmChesapeake Bay - http://www.chesapeakebay.net/pubs/sob/index.htmlGulf of Finland - http://meri.fimr.fiPuget Sound - http://www.wa.gov/puget_soundWadden Sea - http://cwss.www.de/TMAP/QSR.html

Sustainable Development Indicators – www.undp.org/devwatch/indicatr.htmU.S. GOOS

Ocean.US – http://www.ocean.us.netOcean.US Integrated Ocean Observing System Plan –http://www.ocean.us.net/projects/papers/post/FINAL-ImpPlan-NORLC.pdfUS GOOS Steering Committee – http://ocean.tamu.edu/GOOS/usgsc.htmlUS GOOS Publications – http://ocean.tamu.edu/GOOS/publications.html

World Resources Institute,Wastewater Treatment, 1996-97 – http://data.wri.org:1996/cgi-bin/charlotte


176

During the past decade various efforts have attemptedto develop organizing frameworks that conceptuallylink human and environmental dynamics. Perhaps,most notably has been the evolution of thought on thePressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. Withinthe Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, popu-larised by the OECD (OECD, 1993), environmentalproblems and solutions are simplified into variablesthat stress the cause and effect relationships betweenhuman activities that exert influence on the environ-ment (pressure), the condition of the environment(state), and society’s policy and regulatory reaction tothe condition (response).The original P-S-R descrip-tions focused on anthropogenic pressures and respons-es. One of several problems was that the original defi-nitions did not effectively factor natural causes into thepressure category. Therefore, natural variability andepisodic events had no real place in the model.Whileanthropogenic forcing is often an important, if notdominant, factor in environmental change, efforts thatignore other influences may lead to the imposition ofunwarranted regulatory constraints that hold little, ifany, promise to improve environmental quality.

In part, this challenge led some, most notably theUnited Nations Commission on Sustainable Devel-opment to describe a Driving Force-State-Responsemodel. A primary modification here was to expandthe concept of “pressure” to incorporate, social, eco-nomic, institutional and natural system pressures(UNEP, 2000). However, even when “driving force”replaces “pressure”, the model does not explicate acategory to account for the underlying reasons forthe pressures.To analyse policy options and resourceallocation in environmental management, it is essen-tial to have a grasp of the root causes of the problemsbeing addressed (GIWA, 2002). A model that meas-

ures pollutants but gives no information about thesocial conditions surrounding driving pollutantintroduction (e.g., changes in the organization ofwatershed agriculture or coastal industrial produc-tion) is not providing the data needed to inspiremeaningful change.

Another element missing from the P-S-R model isan examination of human motivation responding tothe state of environmental conditions. While socialstewardship of the environment should be an essen-tial component of environmental policy, it is not thesole motivation. Social resources are not infinite.Expenditures of time, energy and effort are priori-tised according to a rich and often conflicting suiteof factors. Certainly, one of those factors should bethe social costs imposed or benefits gained throughchanges in the quality of supporting environments.The social impact of environmental change is anessential factor in influencing policy. An indicatorsystem that records the state but not the impactessentially assumes that every change in the pressure,state, or response should be given the same amountof attention or resources. Realistically, all ICM effortsare a careful balancing of priorities. Including indica-tors that measure impacts to humans and the ecosys-tem makes the model a more useful managementtool.

Thus, challenges to the initial P-S-R model havecontributed to the refined and expanded approachdescribed as the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Model by, among others, the EuropeanCommission (2000).Within this model:

Drivers describe large-scale socio-economic condi-tions and sectoral trends such as patterns in coastal


177

ANNEX X – Linking Socio-economicFactors and Environmental Dynamics

land use and land cover, and growth and developmentin coastal industry sectors.Pressures such as patterns of coastal wetland alter-ation, the introduction of industrial POPs/metals andfertilizer use in the coastal watershed hold the abilityto directly affect the quality of coastal environments.State indicators describe observable changes incoastal environmental dynamics and in functionsdescribing sustainable development.Impacts are the discrete measured changes in socialbenefit values linked to environmental condition such

as the cost of marine-vectored disease, loss of recre-ational bathing beach value, or losses to commercialfishing value due to contaminant burdens; and,Response indicators are described as the institu-tional response to changes in the system (primarilydriven by changes in state and impact indicators).

Figure 5.3 represents the D-P-S-I-R approach andincludes illustrative examples of indicators and indi-cator classes that could contribute to refinements ofthe framework within a coastal context.


178

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ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler ADEOS Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (Japan)APHA American Public Health AssociationARIES Australian Resource Information and Environment Satellite AUV Autonomous Underwater Vehicle AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AWWA American Water Works AssociationAXBT Airborne Expendable BathythermographBOOS Baltic Operational Oceanographic System CalCOFI California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation CAOS Co-ordinated Adriatic Observing System CARICOMP Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity (Launched by UNESCO)CBD Convention on Biological Diversity (Rio de Janeiro, 1992)CBS Commission for Basic Systems (WMO)CCAMLR Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living ResourcesCCI Commission of ClimatologyCDOM Coloured Dissolved Organic Matter CEC Commission of the European CommunitiesCEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites C-GOOS Coastal Panel of GOOS C-GTOS Coastal module of GTOSChl Chlorophyll CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered SpeciesCLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability CODAR High Frequency Coastal Radar CoML Census of Marine LifeCOOP Coastal Ocean Observations Panel (GOOS)CPR Continuous Plankton Recorder CSPI Center for Science in the Public Interest (USA)DMAC Data Management and Communications SystemDNA Designated National AgencyDPSIR Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-ResponseEEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation ENVISAT ENVIronment SATellite (ESA)EOS Earth Observation Satellite/Earth Observation SystemESA European Space Agency


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ANNEX XII – Acronyms

EU European Union EuroGOOS European GOOS FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsGAW Global Atmosphere WatchGBIF Global Biodiversity Information Facility GCOS Global Climate Observing SystemGCRMN Global Coral Reef Monitoring NetworkGEBCO General Bathymetric Chart of the OceansGEOHAB Global Ecology of Harmful Algal BloomsGESAMP Group of Experts on the Scientific Prospects of Marine Environmental ProtectionGHOST Global Horizontal Sounding TechniqueGHRSST High Resolution Sea Surface TemperatureGIPME Global Investigation of Pollution in the Marine Environment (IOC)GIS Geographic Information System GIWA Global International Water Assessment GLCCS Global Land Cover Characteristics DatabaseGLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics GLOSS Global Sea Level Observing System GODAE Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment GOSIC Global Observing System Information CentreGOTOS Global Ocean Time Series Observatory SystemGPA Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine

Environment from Land-based Activities (UNEP)GPS Global Positioning System GRA GOOS Regional AllianceGSC GOOS Steering Committee GTOS Global Terrestrial Observing System HAB Harmful Algal Bloom HELCOM Helsinki Commission Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission HOTO Health of the Oceans (IOC) IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IATTC Inter-American Tropical Tuna CommissionIBOY International Biodiversity Observation Year IBSFC International Baltic Sea Fishery CommissionIBTS International Bottom Trawl Survey of the North Sea ICES International Council for the Exploitation of the Sea ICM Integrated Coastal Management ICSU International Council for Science IGBP International Geosphere - Biosphere Programme I-GOOS IOC-WMO-UNEP Intergovernmental Committee for the Global Ocean Observing System IGOS Integrated Global Observing Strategy IGS International GPS Service for Geodynamics I-LTER International LTER IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (of UNESCO) IOCCG International Ocean-Colour Coordinating Group IODE International Ocean Data and Information Exchange programme (IOC)IPHAB Intergovernmental Panel on HABs (IOC)IPHC International Pacific Halibut CommissionITSU International co-ordination group for the TSUnami Warning System in the Pacific (IOC) IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature (and Natural Resources) IWC International Whaling Commission


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JCOMM Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (IOC-WMO)JDIMP Joint Data and Information Management Panel JGOFS Joint Global Ocean Flux Study LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LME Large Marine EcosystemLMR Living Marine Resources LOICZ Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone (IGBP)LTER Long-Term Ecosystem Research network MAMA Mediterranean Network to Assess and upgrade the Monitoring

and forecasting Activity in the basinMFS Mediterranean Forecasting System MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOS Modular Optoelectronic Scanner MSG Meteosat Second GenerationNAO North Atlantic Oscillation NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA) NASCO North Atlantic Salmon Conservation OrganizationNEAR-GOOS North East Asian GOOS NEMO Naval Earth Map Observer (USA)NGO Non-governmental Organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) NODC National Oceanographic Data Centre (IODE)NPAFC North Pacific Anadromous Fish CommissionNRC National Research Council (Canada/USA)NRT Near Real Time NSEAM North Sea Ecosystem Assessment and ManagementNWP Numerical Weather PredictionOBIS Ocean Biogeographical Information Systems OCTS Ocean Colour and Temperature Scanner OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OOPC Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (GCOS-GOOS-WCRP)OOSDP Ocean Observing System Development Panel OSPARCOM Convention Commission for the Protection of the Marine Environment

of the North-East Atlantic OSSE Observation System Simulation Experiments PAGE Past Global Changes (IGEP)PAH Polycyclic Aromatic HydrocarbonsPAR Phosynthetically Active Radiation PCB Polychlorinated BiphenilPDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation PICES North Pacific Marine Science OrganizationPOLDER Polarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances POP Persistant Organic PollutantPSP Paralytic Shellfish PoisoningPSR Pressure State ResponseQUIJOTE QUickly Integrated Joint Observing TEam QA/QC Quality Assurance and Quality Control RAMP Rapid Assessment of Marine PollutionRFBs Regional Fishery BodiesRNODC Responsible NODCRSC Regional Seas Convention


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RSP Regional Seas Programme/Convention (UNEP)SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic ResearchSEAS Shipboard Environmental Data Acquisition System SeaWiFS Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor SIMBIOS Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary

Oceanic Studies (NASA)SOLAS Safety of Life At Sea SOOP Ship Of Opportunity Programme SPC South Pacific CommissionSRA Surface Contour RadarSSS Sea Surface Salinity SST Sea Surface Temperature TEMA Training, Education and Mutual Assistance (IOC) TEMS Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring SitesTOGA Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaUNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization VOS Voluntary Observing Ships WCMC World Conservation Monitoring CentreWCRP World Climate Research Programme WEF Water Environment FederationWESTPAC IOC Sub-Commission for the Western Pacific WHO World Health OrganizationWMO World Meteorological Organization WOCE World Ocean Circulation ExperimentWRI World Resources InstituteWSA World Seagrass AssociationWWW World Weather Watch XBT Expendable Bathythermograph


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