Interactivity Fosters Bayesian Reasoning

without InstructionGaëlle Vallée-Tourangeau

Frédéric Vallée-TourangeauKingston UniversityMarlène Abadie

University of Toulouse

Bayesian reasoning

• The Head Teacher at Teddington School wonders if watching too much TV increases the chances of wearing glasses. He obtained the following information:

• 12 out of every 20 pupils watch too much TV. • Among these 12 pupils who watch too much TV, 6

wear glasses. Among the 8 remaining pupils who do not watch too much TV, 2 also wear glasses.

• Imagine you meet a group of pupils who wear glasses. How many of them watch too much TV? ___ out of ___.

About 40% of people find the correct solution.

Bayesian reasoning problem

Zhu & Gigerenzer, 2006

Answer: 6 out of 8

Experimental design

Standard Systemic

5 experiments• Experiment 1: Does interactivity help?

– Yes, especially with practice.• Experiment 2: Does it always help?

– Yes, but problem difficulty matters.• Experiment 3: Is it the extra information in the cards?

– Nope.• Experiment 4a: Do all cards help? Do all samples help?

– Yep.• Experiment 4b: How do the cards help?• Experiment 5: Is the manipulation of the cards or the

final layout?

5 experiments• Experiment 1: Does interactivity help?

– Yes, especially with practice.• Experiment 2: Does it always help?

– Yes, but problem difficulty matters.• Experiment 3: Is it the extra information in the cards?

– Nope.• Experiment 4a: Do all cards help? Do all samples help?

– Yep.• Experiment 4b: How do the cards help?• Experiment 5: Is the manipulation of the cards or the

final layout?

Experiment 4How do the cards help?

Experiment 4

Experiment 4How do the cards help?

The final Cohen’s taking both the timing of coding and the sequence of events into account was .88, with a 91.35% average percentage agreement.

Experiment 4How do the cards help?

CONCLUSIONSStudying systemic thinking in the lab

The story so far…

It is the manipulation of the cards that helped.

People who did not manipulate cards were less likely to draw Bayesian inferences.

Manipulating cards did help beyond providing a clear visual representation of the information.

So what…

So what…

Vallée-Tourangeau, G., Abadie, M., & Vallée-Tourangeau, F. (2015). Interactivity fosters Bayesian reasoning without instruction. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 144, 581-603. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0039161