Indonesia’s deforestation: Setting reference emission levels and understanding drivers of...
-
Upload
center-for-international-forestry-research-cifor -
Category
Environment
-
view
210 -
download
0
Transcript of Indonesia’s deforestation: Setting reference emission levels and understanding drivers of...
Indonesia’s deforestation: Setting reference emission levels and Understanding drivers of deforestation
Arief Wijaya1, Lou Verchot1, Martin Herold2, Arild Angelsen3, Erika Romijn2 and John-Herbert Ainembabazi3
1 Forest and Environment Programme, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia
2 Center for Geo-Information Science, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
3 Department of Plants and Environmental Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB), Oslo, Norway
Introduction: Indonesia and REDD+
Third largest area of tropical forest in the world after Brazil and DRC (World Bank, 2007)
High deforestation rate of 0.83 million ha/year (MoF, 2009)
80% of Indonesia GHG emissions come from LULUCF activities; from conversion of peatlands (45%) and forestlands (35%) (DNPI, 2009)
More than 30 REDD+projects in Indonesia (Atmadja, 2010; Sekala, 2012)
Setting a forest reference emissions level (REL) for Indonesia
Forest reference level (RLs) and forest reference emission levels (RELs) are a business as usual (BAU) baseline to assess a country’s performance in implementing REDD+ (UNFCCC, 2011)
The uses of RLs:– to establish a reference point or benchmark against which actual
emissions (and removals) are compared
– to serve a benchmark for payments in a results-based REDD+ mechanism
RLs development is data-driven approach (need exhaustive and reliable activity data and emission factors)
Capacity gap of non-annexes I countries
Capacity assessment based on FAO FRA 2005/10; includes information on forest area change, forest inventory and carbon pool reporting capabilities (adopted from Herold, 2012)
How RL can be estimated?
Historical approach– Historical approach with or without trends
– Historical approach with adjustment
Modelling approach– Considering historical emissions – adjusted REL/RL
Forward looking approach (no relations with historical emissions)
Modeling of current deforestation
Applying relatively straight forward statistical method, multi-linear regression
Various input combinations were experimented:– Historical deforestation
– Trend in historical deforestation
– Forest cover
– Agriculture GDP and price indices
– Other related variables
Modeling resultsGlobal Brazil Vietnam Indonesia
Historical deforestation 0.639*** 0.395*** 1.464*** 0.259***Trend variable 0.001 0.003 -0.136*** -0.145*** -0.006** 0.003Deforestation dummy -0.067*** -0.180*** -0.373*** -0.773*** 0.011* -0.031** -0.541 -1.096**Forest stock 0.119** 0.894*** 2.180*** 4.756*** 0.067 0.260** 7.479*** 9.062***Forest stock sq. -0.115* -0.882*** -1.800*** -3.826*** -0.189** -0.463** -6.292** -7.201**log of GDP per capita -0.004** -0.013** -0.034* -0.130*** 1.507*** 1.855***Agric. GDP (% of GDP) 0.004*** 0.008*** 0.117*** 0.280*** 0.116*** 0.136***Agric. (% of GDP) sq. -0.000*** -0.000*** -0.001** -0.002***Crop price index -0.001 -0.001Population density 0.002 -0.001 -0.125*** -0.081*** -1.177* 1.036** -0.428*** -0.549***Road density 0.039*** 0.076*** 0.004* -0.001 -2.042** -1.358Control of corruption -0.022** -0.099***Regulatory quality -0.001 0.001Political stability 0.035*** 0.071***Voice & accountability -0.027** -0.007R2 0.895 0.67 0.831 0.789 0.515 0.052 0.787 0.771Number of observations 650 650 3595 3595 301 301 371 371
National circumstances across countries
Historical deforestation
Forest cover
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Agricultural GDP
Human population
Road net work
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5Elasticity estimates with 95% confidence interval
Global BrazilVietnam Indonesia
Land cover change monitoring
Forest cover change 2000 – 2009Data from Indonesian Ministry of Forestry (2009)Based on interpretation of Landsat TM/ETM data
Forest definitions matter!
Distribution of deforestation drivers in Indonesia from 2000 to 2009 based on analysis of follow-up land cover/land use type
Deforestation rates (official data MoF)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.5
0.68
0.3
0.410.22
0.13
1.37
2.83
0.78 0.760.61
0.32
1.87
3.51
1.081.17
0.83
0.45
Year
Def
ores
tatio
n (m
illio
n he
ctar
e)
1990-1996 1996-2000 2000-2003 2003-2006 2006-2009 2009-2011
Indonesia
Forest land
Non-forest land
Source: MoF (2012)
Comparison of different study
1990-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Indonesia MOFOR Indonesia Hansen
Indonesia JRC Indonesia Mean
Annu
al D
efor
esta
tion
(x 1
000
ha)
Cumulative LUCF carbon emissions
SourceCumulative Emission from
LUCF 2000 -2009(in Gg CO2e)*
Methods Remarks
FAOStat 3,140,033 FRA country report(EF = 138 ton C/ha) Net forest conversion
MoE - Second National Communication to UNFCCC 7,443,064 IPCC Guidelines 2006 Net forest conversion
Winrock International (Harris, 2012) 3,468,150 Carbon Bookkeping model
(RS + Field) Gross deforestation
MOF (official) 1,760,000 Approach 1 + NFI(Tier 1 or 2)
Net forest conversion (peat?) - carbon emissions potential
MOF + Saatchi (CIFOR) 1,811,396 Approach 1 + Global EF(Tier 1 or 2) Net forest conversion
Mean 3,524,529
* does not include peat emissions and peat fire
Toward consensus of deforestation rate estimate
Source of differences:
Forest definitions
Approaches, data and scale
Issues from government authority:
Transparency and openness of the MoF– Robustness and data uncertainty
– Validation
Issue of sovereignty?