Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development:
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Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development: conceptual explorations with country narratives Arjan de Haan IDRC, formerly ISS
description
Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development: conceptual explorations with country narratives Arjan de Haan IDRC, formerly ISS . contents. Background to this paper Concept inclusive growth – some genealogy GDP, inequality, HDI Inclusive growth as process Production - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development:
Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development:
conceptual explorations with country narratives
Arjan de HaanIDRC, formerly ISS
contents
• Background to this paper • Concept inclusive growth – some genealogy • GDP, inequality, HDI • Inclusive growth as process– Production– Accountability, participation, governance
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background
• IDRC program ‘supporting inclusive growth’• A fairly broad working definition
“growth that improves the access of the poor to expanding economic opportunities and reduces inequality”
• While it’s right to have broad working definition, we decided to review different country narratives
• And: how is the concept different from earlier ones?– process and outcomes – governance and beyond
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Country narratives:10 emerging (more or less) economies
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Zambia
Brazil
Ghana
Egypt
Tunisia
Bangla
desh
Mozambique
Thaila
ndIndia
Vietnam
China
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
GDP/capita annual growth 1990-2010Poverty headcount ChangeGini ImprovementInfant Mortality Improvement
a little of genealogy
• concept inclusive growth led by emerging economies, notably India 2004
• similar but in different language China, Brazil, South Africa
• international agencies: AsDB, UNDP, now AfDB• After:– 1997 crisis turnaround pro-growth emphasis – period ‘inclusive neo-liberalism’
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growth-is-not-enough concepts
• growth with redistribution(1980s Washington Consensus style)• growth and poverty reduction• poverty elasticities • inequality ‘back on the agenda’• pro-poor growth (growth rate bottom 10%)• growth incidence curves
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Growth and …
• Inequality– while diverse now well explored , WDR 2006– Growth Commission ‘toxic inequalities’
• HDI: remains contested but also well-known debate• Gender – instrumental case
(no link with growth in dozen countries – see below)
• Governance, institutions and growth (below)
Now: growth as process ……………
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Inclusive growth (see ADB paper Klasen)
Inclusive growth as outcome– Growth with declining
income inequality – Growth with growing social
opportunities IA-HDI?
-> HD and social protection policies
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Inclusive growth as process
• Expanding equal opportunities and access– Social (as above)– Infrastructure – Etc
Measurement not clear, possibly at project level
-> can / should we include governance and social development indicators ?
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Inclusive growth as improving governance-> no story / not-so-good-story
GDP and rule of law (WGI) GDP and voice and accountability (WGI)
100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Intermezzo: Governance and ISD comparison
Voice & accountability – civic activism
Voice & accountability – clubs & associations
110 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Series1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Series1
Growth &ISD – with governance
120 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
voice and countabilitycivic activismclubs and associationsintergroup cohesionsafety and trust
Conclusions
• Growth paradigm is shifting, increasingly broad understanding well-being
• All good things do not go together • ISD (some) show links with other development
outcomes (Robert, Yi Lerh and John) • Can we link this to and ‘inclusive growth’
indicator ?• Will strength of explanation increase if we
include governance ? 13
