Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR)...

Document of

The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: ICR00005164

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT

ON A

LOAN

IN THE AMOUNT OF US$320 MILLION

TO THE

REPUBLIC OF INDIA

FOR THE

ASSAM STATE ROADS PROJECT

March 25, 2020

Transport Global Practice

South Asia Region

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective September 30, 2019)

Currency Unit = Indian Rupee (INR)

INR 70.64 = US$1

US$0.014 = INR 1

FISCAL YEAR

April 1 – March 31

Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer

Country Director: Junaid Kamal Ahmad

Regional Director: Guangzhe Chen

Practice Manager: Shomik Raj Mehndiratta

Task Team Leader(s): Tesfamichael Nahusenay Mitiku, N. S. Srinivas

ICR Main Contributor: Wei Yan

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

APCP Assam PWRD Computerization Project

ARRTI Assam Roads Research Training Institute

ASACS Assam State AIDS Control Society

ASRB Assam State Roads Board

ASRP Assam State Roads Project

CoE Center of Excellence

CPF Country Partnership Framework

CS Country Strategy

DEA Department of Economic Affairs

EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return

GIS Geographic Information System

GoA Government of Assam

GoI Government of India

HDM Highway Development and Management

ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report

iRAP International Road Assessment Program

IRI International Roughness Index

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MDR Major District Road

MTR Midterm Review

NE Northeast

NGO Nongovernmental Organization

NPV Net Present Value

PAD Project Appraisal Document

PAP Project-affected People

PDO Project Development Objective

PMU Project Management Unit

PWRD Public Works Road Department

RADMS Road Accident Data Management System

RAMS Road Asset Management System

RAP Resettlement Action Plan

RoW Right-of-way

RWIS Right of way Information System

RSMP Road Sector Modernization Program

SH State Highways

ToC Theory of Change

VOC Vehicle Operating Cost

VoT Value of Travel Time

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1

I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5

A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5

B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) .......................................8

II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 10

A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 10

B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 10

C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 14

D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 15

E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 16

III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 17

A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................ 17

B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................... 18

IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 19

A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 19

B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 20

C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 23

D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 24

V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 24

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 27

ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 37

ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 39

ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 40

ANNEX 5. CHANGES TO INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS............................................................ 44

ANNEX 6. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 47

ANNEX 7. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 48

ANNEX 8. ASRP VIDEO ON ROAD SAFETY ............................................................................. 49

ANNEX 9. PROJECT MAP A .................................................................................................... 50

The World Bank Assam State Roads Project (P096018)

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DATA SHEET

BASIC INFORMATION

Product Information

Project ID Project Name

P096018 Assam State Roads Project

Country Financing Instrument

India Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category Revised EA Category

Full Assessment (A) Full Assessment (A)

Related Projects

Relationship Project Approval Product Line

Supplement P119947-Scaling up of Assam PWD Computerization Project

19-Dec-2011 Recipient Executed Activities

Organizations

Borrower Implementing Agency

Department of Economic Affairs, Government of India Public Works Roads Department

Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO

The project development objective is to enhance the road connectivity of Assam by assisting the Public Works Roads Department to improve and effectively manage its road network. PDO as stated in the legal agreement

The project development objective is to enhance the road connectivity in Assam by assisting the PWRD to improve and effectively manage Assam’s road network


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FINANCING

Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$)

World Bank Financing

P096018 IBRD-81360 320,000,000 320,000,000 280,777,402

P096018 TF-11446 1,750,000 1,748,396 1,748,396

Total 321,750,000 321,748,396 282,525,798

Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0

Borrower/Recipient 80,000,000 0 0

Total 80,000,000 0 0

Total Project Cost 401,750,000 321,748,396 282,525,798

KEY DATES

Project Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing

P096018 13-Mar-2012 27-Apr-2012 29-Nov-2015 31-Mar-2018 30-Sep-2019

RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING

Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions

29-Mar-2018 129.78 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s)

KEY RATINGS

Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality

Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest

RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs

No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Actual

Disbursements (US$M)

01 08-Jul-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory .82


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02 22-Dec-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory .82

03 29-May-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory .86

04 17-Nov-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 12.79

05 24-Mar-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 13.06

06 01-Sep-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 24.69

07 06-Apr-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 28.85

08 25-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 35.20

09 05-Apr-2016 Moderately

Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 43.68

10 21-Dec-2016 Moderately


11 27-Apr-2017 Moderately


12 13-Jul-2017 Moderately

Unsatisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 88.11

13 16-May-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 129.78

14 11-Jan-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 184.71

15 21-Mar-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 184.71

16 10-Dec-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 229.22

SECTORS AND THEMES

Sectors

Major Sector/Sector (%)

Transportation 100

Public Administration - Transportation 5

Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 95

Themes

Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Urban and Rural Development 100

Rural Development 100

Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 100


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ADM STAFF

Role At Approval At ICR

Regional Vice President: Isabel M. Guerrero Hartwig Schafer

Country Director: Michael F. Carter Junaid Kamal Ahmad

Director: John Henry Stein Guangzhe Chen

Practice Manager: Binyam Reja Shomik Raj Mehndiratta

Task Team Leader(s): Ashok Kumar Tesfamichael Nahusenay Mitiku, N. S. Srinivas

ICR Contributing Author: Wei Yan


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I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL

Context

1. Assam, situated in India’s Northeast (NE) region, is classified by the Government of India (GoI) as one of the Special Category States1. At project appraisal, Assam’s road infrastructure, especially the state roads, were underdeveloped mainly due to insufficient funds and sub-optimal use of the funds leading to inadequate maintenance. Only about 25 percent of state highways (SH) in Assam was in either fair or good condition.

2. The weak capacity of the Public Works Road Department (PWRD2) aggravated the impact of sector underfunding. PWRD’s institutional structure and business procedures were primarily suited for small works and force-account methods. PWRD progressively became construction oriented to cope with the high demands of road construction, despite its with limited capacity. The Government of Assam (GoA) recognized the need to re-orient PWRD from a primarily construction focused entity to a modern road agency with sound policies, planning, engineering practices, business processes, and asset management. In addition to the establishment of Assam State Roads Board (ASRB) to work on a range of road sector modernization initiatives such as e-procurement, road sector rehabilitation and resettlement policy, and the introduction of annual maintenance plans, GoA also prepared a Road Sector Modernization Program (RSMP).

3. Road safety in Assam (as elsewhere in India) was a challenge, with a high percentage of deaths. PWRD recognized the road safety challenges and carried out a road safety assessment of secondary roads with support from the World Bank Global Road Safety Facility, and the recommendations of the assessment were incorporated in the project design.3

4. The World Bank’s financial assistance to the Assam State Roads Project (ASRP) was aligned with the World Bank Group’s India Country Strategy (CS) for the period FY09–FY12.4 The preparation timeline of the ASRP was closely linked to the World Bank’s engagement strategy for the country. The project was aligned to support the CS’s objectives of achieving rapid and inclusive growth, intensifying the World Bank engagement with the lagging states, and removing infrastructural constraints to growth. The project built on the long engagement of the World Bank in reforming the road sector in Assam by furthering the initiatives already introduced under the Assam Agriculture Competitiveness Project (AACP) and the Assam Rural Infrastructure and Agriculture Support Project. It was also expected to contribute to the objectives of the Assam Development Strategy and the North-East Vision 2020 and the objectives of the North-East

1 Special Category States include Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and the states in the Northeast. Criteria for special category status: (i) Hilly and difficult terrain; (ii) Low population density or sizeable share of tribal population; (iii) Strategic location along borders with neighboring countries; (iv) Economic and infrastructural backwardness; (v) Non-viable nature of state finances. The central government of India bears 90 percent of the state expenditure on all centrally-sponsored schemes and external aid while rest 10 percent is given as loan to state at zero percent rate of interest. 2 Also referred as PWD in World Bank documents. 3 Project Appraisal Document (PAD) for an Assam State Roads Project, February 17, 2012. 4 The World Bank Group: India - Country strategy for the period FY09–FY12, November 14, 2008. Report No. 76176-IN.


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Sub-region Trade and Transport Facilitation Program through the promotion of a more integrated approach to network planning, both regionally and internationally.

Theory of Change (Results Chain)

Figure 1. ASRP Theory of Change (Result Chain)

5. The retrofitted Theory of Change (ToC) for the project is presented in Figure 1 above. Critical challenges that the project intended to address under Component A were: (i) effective execution of land acquisition and utility shifting; (ii) effective collaboration between different agencies for rehabilitation and resettlement plans; (iii) timely deployment of contractors; and (iv) ensuring high quality of works. For


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Component B, the critical challenge was a strong political commitment to work on road sector modernization and performance enhancement, as well as the availability of road maintenance funding. For Component C, the key challenge was close collaboration of concerned authorities for delivery of the road safety interventions.

Project Development Objectives (PDO)

6. The PDO, as stated in the Loan Agreement, was to: enhance the road connectivity in Assam by assisting the PWRD to improve and effectively manage Assam’s road network.5

Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators

7. At appraisal, the achievement of the PDO was to be measured through four indicators: (i) increase in the percentage of secondary road network in good and fair condition; (ii) reduction in travel time on the project corridors; (iii) Increase in the safety rating of the project corridors; and (iv) improved Asset Management.

Main Beneficiaries

8. The primary project beneficiaries were the inhabitants, businesses, and industries either living along or served through the secondary roads.

Components

9. As summarized in Table 1, at appraisal the project was structured around three components.

Table 1. Project Components and Financing at Approval

Component Descriptions Financing Allocation

Component A: Road Improvement

Supporting the improvement of priority sections of the secondary roads to improve state connectivity and facilitate regional integration. The original activities included: i. Improving about 500 km of secondary roads (widening and upgrading

about 300 km of roads, and pavement rehabilitation and strengthening of about 200 km of roads).

ii. Constructing related bridges, including introduction of new technologies, related to the design and construction of said roads and bridges.

iii. Supporting project preparation, supervision, management, and monitoring.

iv. Resettlement and rehabilitation assistance to project-affected people (PAP) and supporting an HIV/AIDS awareness program.

v. Supporting construction of stand-alone bridges using innovative technical designs.

Estimated cost US$330.4 million equivalent, of which US$262.3 million equivalent IBRD financed

Component B: Supporting the implementation of RSMP and deepening various institutional development initiatives. The original activities included:

Estimated cost US$20.0 million

5 The PDO in the PAD had a slightly different in wording: “to enhance the road connectivity of Assam by assisting the Public Works Roads Department to improve and effectively manage its road network.”


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Component Descriptions Financing Allocation

Road Sector Modernization & Performance Enhancement

i. Modernizing and strengthening PWRD’s policies, engineering practices, and business procedures.

ii. Strengthening Assam’s road asset management and maintenance. iii. Supporting PWRD’s institutional and human resource development;

and capacity building of the local construction industry. iv. Streamlining, standardizing, and computerizing key PWRD business

processes.

equivalent, of which US$17.0 million equivalent IBRD financed

Component C: Road Safety Management

Supporting safety management capacity of related agencies in Assam through developing and implementing a multi-sector road safety strategy. The original activities included: i. Implementation of safe corridor demonstration programs/projects on

identified road sections. ii. Development and operationalization of a road accident database and

management system. iii. Strengthening road safety capacity of PWRD during the design,

construction and operation stages of the Project. iv. Supporting awareness programs on road safety and work zone safety. v. Supporting implementation of engineering countermeasures for the

roads to be widened and upgraded under Component 1 of the Project.

Estimated cost US$11.8 million equivalent, of which US$10 million equivalent IBRD financed

B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE)

Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets

10. The PDO remained unchanged throughout the project lifetime.

Revised PDO Indicators

11. The 2018 Level 2 project restructuring included changes to the PDO level results indicators. The appraisal PDO indicator (i) (“Secondary road network in good or fair condition”) did not have a definition for

“fair condition” of the road; the definition of fair condition of roads as international roughness index (IRI)

between 4 and 6 was included during the restructuring. In addition, the target year of achievement was postponed by 18 months. The appraisal PDO indicator (iii) (“Safety Rating of project corridors”) was dropped. The appraisal PDO indicator (iv) (“Improved Asset Management”) was retained, but the target of Road Asset Management System (RAMS) activities adopted was decreased6 from 50 to 40, while the target year of achievement of the objective was postponed by 18 months. In addition, the sub-indicator “using a performance-based or other system of maintenance contracting for state roads” was removed as the activity was not funded by the project and was beyond the control of the project due to the limited capacity. Please refer to Annex 1 (Results Framework) for more details on outcomes and indicators.

6 The appraisal PDO was to implement four activities in all 22 districts, thus the maximum number of activities was 88. The activity “performance-based maintenance contracting for state roads” was excluded during the restructuring, as the state was not using project funds for this activity. The number of districts was also increased from 22 to 27, based on changes by GoA. Hence the revised PDO was changed to three activities in 27 districts, and the maximum number of activities was decreased to 81.


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Revised Components

12. There were no changes to project components during implementation. However, the March 2018 Level 2 restructuring revised the outputs, as summarized in Table 2.

Table 2. Summary of Changes to Component Outputs

Components Original Output Revised Output

Component A (i): Civil Works: Upgrading and rehabilitation of secondary roads

Total length 500 km 1,000 km

Widening and upgrading 300 km 250 km

Rehabilitation and Strengthening 200 km 750 km

Component A (ii): Bridge construction

Replacement of 10 pilot bridges

Construction of 14 bridges with a span length of roughly 700 m.

Component B: Road Sector Modernization & Performance Enhancement

(i) Modernization of policies, engineering practices, and business procedure

(i) Institutional strengthening of PWRD within ASRP context.7

(ii) Asset management and maintenance: effective execution of maintenance works.

(ii) dropped, since maintenance would be done through the state budget allocation.

(iii) Institutional and Human Resource Development: minimum training for 25 percent of PWRD staff.

(iii) Reduced to two days, as the originally planned seven days training was not achievable, given PWRD’s capacity constraints.

Component C: Road safety management

International Road Assessment Program (iRAP) assessment of 300 km upgradation.

Decreased to 200 km, in line with the change to Component A.

Other Changes

13. The 2018 Level 2 restructuring also included: (i) an extension of the loan closing date by 18 months, from March 31, 2018 to September 30, 2019; and (ii) changes to the Intermediate Results Indicators to align them with the expected outputs and intermediate outcomes, based on project progress, the revised scope of work, and the revised loan closing date.

Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change

14. The primary objective of the changes was to refocus project activities based on implementation experience, extend the loan closing date to enable the revised project activities to be completed, and to update the Results Framework based on these changes, as well as to make them more relevant. “Safety

7 Institutional strengthening of PWRD within ASRP context, including: Road Fund Operational; Strategic Core network established; PWRD prepares a capacity building plan for the construction industry and starts its implementation; PWRD adopts an HR and professional development strategy for its staff; Revised PWRD Code accepted by Government; Road Board functioning as an apex body for the Road Sector; and Asset Management strategy adopted by GoA.


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rating of project corridor” could not directly contribute to the PDO focused on achieving connectivity. One demonstration safe corridor (Amingaon to Kalitakushi) had been completed with road safety engineering measures and enhanced enforcement, however, the PDO level indicator was dropped due to the indirect relevance to the PDO. The road safety changed to be under the scope of “improve and effectively manage road network” by PWRD in project’s ToC shown in Figure 1.

II. OUTCOME

A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs

15. At the time of loan closing in September 2019, the PDO remained highly relevant to the World Bank Group’s India Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY18–FY22 (Report No. 126667-IN). The PDO is aligned with Pillar 2 of the CPF “enhancing competitiveness and enabling job creation”, in particular objective 2.3 “Improve connectivity and logistics”. The project supports enhancing the competitiveness of Assam and enables job creation in Assam. It strengthens PWRD’s institutional capacity by improving implementation capabilities and increases connectivity by supporting the development and maintenance of state roads.

16. The ASRP PDO also remains relevant to the current GoA development priorities, as well as the development plans of the North East Region. GoA, in pursuance of the Assam Vision Document 2016-2025, has initiated a series of developmental activities to improve the economy, development and creation of employment in Assam. This project directly contributes to Vision Assam by re-constructing/renovating district/state roads, as well as by upgrading bridges, to facilitate transportation and communication. It is also in line with the North Eastern Council Regional development plans in the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks, provision of basic minimum services, and the creation of an environment for private investment.

17. The overall relevance of the PDO is therefore rated High.

B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)

Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome

18. The PDO was to enhance the road connectivity of Assam by assisting the PWRD to (a) improve its road network, and (b) effectively manage its road network. The PDO comprises a primary element (enhance the road connectivity of Assam) and a supporting element (by assisting the PWRD to (a) improve its road network, and (b) effectively manage its road network). PDO indicators (i) and (ii) assess the achievement of the primary PDO element, while PDO indicators (iii) safety rating of the project corridors, and (iv) introduce asset management activities in the majority of the districts, measure the achievement of the supporting element of the PDO. While PDO indicator (iii) was dropped during restructuring, as it was not aligned with achieving connectivity, the relevant activities relating to safety were retained in the project.


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PDO Primary Element: Enhance the road connectivity of Assam

19. The project’s objective of enhancing the road connectivity of Assam was fully achieved. The project included PDO level indicators (i) increase 15 percent of secondary road network in good and fair condition and (ii) reduce 20 percent in travel time on the project corridors, which were both achieved.

20. Secondary road network in good and fair condition. At appraisal, the baseline of the secondary road network in good or fair condition was 25 percent of 3,134 km, and the target was to increase this to 40 percent through the construction of 500 km roads (about 300 km road widening and upgrading, and about 200 km pavement rehabilitation and strengthening). At the time of restructuring, the overall target for road works was increased to 1,000 km (comprising about 250 km of road widening and upgrading and 750 km of pavement rehabilitation and strengthening). At project completion, about 978 km (about 248 km road widening and upgrading, and 730 km pavement rehabilitation and strengthening) of the secondary road network had been upgraded and rehabilitated (against the target of 1,000 km, that is, achievement of 98 percent). At completion, all 978 km of these roads are in good or fair condition and the percentage of secondary roads in good or fair condition was 55 percent, thus exceeding the target of 40 percent by a significant margin. The road condition was greatly improved, as shown in Figure 2 below shows examples of roads whose conditions were improved under the project. and resulted in reduced vehicle operating costs (VOCs) and vehicle damages. Vulnerable users such as pedestrians were provided better protection through footpaths and traffic calming measures.

21. Travel time. The target of 20 percent reduction in travel time on the project corridors reflected the project’s first objective to enhance the road connectivity of Assam; this target was not revised during the restructuring. The average travel time in roads covered by the upgrading and rehabilitation packages under the project resulted in reductions of 23 percent and 27 percent respectively8, thus exceeding the target by some margin; these increases in average travel speeds were within acceptable road safety norms.

Figure 2. ASRP Roads in 2019

Source: Assam PWRD, 2019.

8 The current travel times were collected for cars, trucks and buses on selected road sections with project interventions and compared to the corresponding travel times at appraisal.


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22. Bridges. Under the project 11 new bridges (618 meters) were constructed as pilots (against the target of 700 m, that is, achievement of 88 percent), by adopting innovative designs. These bridges improved connectivity for indigenous people living in isolated and remote areas.

Figure 3. ASRP Bridges in 2012 and 2019

Source: Assam PWRD, 2019. BR.107-1-CP10.

23. The overall efficacy of the primary PDO element is rated Substantial.

PDO Supporting Element: Assist PWRD to (a) improve its road network, and (b) effectively manage its road network

24. The project’s objective of improving and effectively managing road network by assisting PWRD was fully achieved, supporting the sustainability of the primary objective of enhancing roads connectivity.

25. Activities under the Road Sector Modernization and Performance Enhancement Component and the Road Safety Management Component contributed to the achievement of this objective. The five intermediate targets were either achieved or exceeded the target, as shown in Table 3.

26. The increased maintenance funding ensured that the secondary road asset networks received sufficient maintenance to provide a basic level of access to all areas in Assam in order to be able to provide basic services for the population (i.e., access to markets, as well as to administrative, health, and educational facilities). The Institutional Strengthening of PWRD and training of PWRD staff has enhanced the institutional capacity and created inhouse accountability to support road sector management in a sustainable manner.

27. PDO indicator (iv) “Improved Asset Management” was to measure the achievement of this PDO element, RAMS offers ASRP the effective and sustainable prospect of significantly improving road network management outcomes. In road sector reform, RAMS represents “a systematic process of maintaining, upgrading and operating assets, combining engineering principles with sound business practice and economic rationale, and providing tools to facilitate a more organized and flexible approach to making the decisions necessary to achieve the public’s expectations”.9 RAMS contributes to managing roads efficiently and sustainably: (i) it has a database to store and present road data information, planning short

9 Asset Management for the Roads Sector, Transport. OECD, 2011.


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and long-term road maintenance; and (ii) it highlights the budget required and maximizes economic returns of the investments made for the road network.

Table 3. Intermediate Indicators under Component B and C

Intermediate indicators Target Achieved

Increased Maintenance Funding Rs.10 5,000 million 16-17: Rs. 6,000 million 17-18: Rs. 8,000 million 18-19: Rs. 6,000 million 19-20: Rs. 5,000 million 20-21: Rs. 20,000 million (budgeted) 21-22: Rs. 25,000 million (planned)

Institutional Strengthening of PWRD

Various actions under the road sector modernization plan11

Actions under RSMP are underway

Training of PWRD staff 12 25% 26% (360/1,400)

Development & Implementation of road safety strategy13

Yes Yes

Road safety improvements 300 km 1,000 km (including the 23 km demonstration corridor)

28. The RAMS developed under the project included four activities14 as sub-indicators: (i) preparing annual maintenance plans using the asset management module of the Assam PWRD Computerization Project (APCP)15; (ii) having a web-based system on road inventory and condition data for state roads available to the public; (iii) using computerized workflow of APCP for project management; and (iv) using a performance-based or other system of maintenance contracting for state roads. At appraisal, keeping in mind the limited capacity in Assam, not all 22 districts of Assam were targeted to carry out these four activities, and a target of 50 activities was set (against a possible total of 88 activities, that is, 22 times 4). At the time of restructuring, although the number of districts had been increased to 27, as one of the four activities was dropped, the target was revised to 40 activities (against a possible total of 81 activities, that is, 27 times 3). At completion, all 27 districts had carried out RAMS based: (i) annual maintenance plans using APCP, (ii) web-based system which allows public viewing of road inventory and condition data for state roads, and (iii) computerized workflow of APCP for project management. As such, PWRD had successfully achieved the maximum score, and exceeded both the original and revised PDO Indicator (iii) target by a substantial margin.

10 Also referred as Indian rupee (INR). 11 Y2 - Road Fund Operational, Strategic Core network established; Y3 - PWRD prepares a capacity building plan for the construction industry and starts its implementation; Y4 - PWRD adopts an HR and professional development strategy for its staff; Y5 - Revised PWRD Code accepted by Government; and Y6 - Road Board functioning as an apex body for the Road Sector, Asset Management strategy adopted by GoA. 12 % staff receiving minimum two-day training annually 13 1) Process initiated to prepare a road safety strategy; 2) GoA adopts Road Safety Strategy; 3) Road safety integrated in engineering tools; 4) Road Accident data-base operational in pilot locations; 5) Safe Road Demonstration program implemented. 14 The sub-indicator “(iv) using a performance-based or other system of maintenance contracting for state roads” was dropped during restructuring, as the activity was not funded by the project and was beyond the control of the project. 15 APCP was funded by trust fund (TF-11446), which strengthened PWRD by providing an efficient and transparent functioning system and increased its capacity to construct and maintain a well develop ed road, bridge and building infrastructure in Assam.


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29. The development of RAMS, the strengthening of ASRB, E-portal, and strengthening the Assam Roads Research Training Institute (ARRTI) were completed satisfactorily. Pilot right-of-way (RoW) information was collected in July 2019, the RoW data for one district was input to the Right of way Information System (RWIS) module of the RAMS and is planned to be rolled out for more districts. The upgrade of RAMS Oracle License to Enterprise version has been completed. A dedicated RAMS cell has been established, with staff assigned. The recruitment of a firm to support the administration of the RAMS is in progress. The ARRTI building refurbishment is currently ongoing and ARRTI is targeted to become the training and research lighthouse in road sector reform in NE of India. The Business Implementation Action Plan of ASRB has been prepared and is being considered by GoA. The success of RAMS and ARRTI are now fast evolving as a road sector Center of Excellence (CoE) in NE India.

30. The success of RAMS supported and ensured that the project objective was achieved, and the outcomes are sustainable. The main factors contributing to the application of RAMS include: (i) use of a simplified asset maintenance tool to estimate the budget for routine maintenance works and miscellaneous works; (ii) coverage of the entire state road network, including rural roads, enabling a more comprehensive road network analysis, and making it relevant for high-level decision-making; (iii) adoption of a sustainable RAMS maintenance strategy, with a focus on outsourcing technical tasks; (iv) sustained capacity building, due to the setup of a Road Asset Management Cell to support training and provide in-house capacity; (v) monitoring all PWRD works in Assam using the e-Project Monitoring System, which links to the geographic information system (GIS) based RAMS; and (vi) sharing GIS asset data and e-project monitoring system data with the public to improve citizen engagement.

31. Road safety mitigation activities were substantially achieved to support road network management. Activities implemented included: the safe road demonstration program; adoption of the road safety strategy by GoA; and road safety interventions on project corridors on upgradation/rehabilitation works. Road safety interventions were carried out over the entire length of the project intervention roads (including on a 23 km demonstration corridor). In addition, a Road Safety Audit was carried out on about 220 km. A Road Safety cell has been established and a Road Safety Video has been developed,16 which will be used for a Road Safety campaign to generate awareness among different stakeholders, including educational institutions. The development of the Road Accident Data Management System (RADMS) has been deferred, so as to not duplicate the efforts of the nationwide RADMS to be developed by the (federal) Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.

Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating

32. Based on the discussion above on the achievement of the primary and supporting PDO elements, the overall efficacy of the project is rated as Substantial.

C. EFFICIENCY

Assessment of Efficiency and Rating

33. Economic analyses were carried out at completion for six upgraded roads totaling 236 km and six rehabilitation roads totaling 148 km under Component A, using the same methodology as at appraisal. Table 4 summarizes the results of the economic analysis for upgrading roads and rehabilitation

16 See Annex 8.


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roads, along with the results of the sensitivity analysis. Details of the economic analysis are presented in Annex 4.

Table 4. Results of the Economic Analysis

Civil Works Length (km)

Normal Scenario [Improvement Alternative]

Scenario with 20% Reduction in Benefits

EIRR (%) NPV

(Rs. millions) EIRR (%)

NPV (Rs. millions)

Upgrading Roads 235.96 41.14 19,320 37.01 14,686

Rehabilitation Roads 147.78 25.79 883 21.19 554

Note: EIRR = economic internal rate of return; NPV = net present value.

34. The combined EIRR of upgrading roads at completion (41.14 percent) is lower than the EIRR estimated at appraisal (45 percent). The combined EIRR of rehabilitation roads at completion (25.79 percent) is also lower than the EIRR estimated at appraisal (37.4 percent). A sensitivity analysis considering 20 percent reduction of yearly benefits, resulted in the combined EIRRs for upgrading roads to drop to 21.19 percent. However, the end-of-project EIRRs are well above the economic opportunity cost of capital of 12 percent. The difference in the EIRR between appraisal and at completion can be explained by: (i) the increase in construction costs; (ii) deterioration of the roads between the time the initial economic analysis was carried out (2012) and the time the works were completed; and (iii) implementation delays.

35. Design and implementation efficiency. As a result of the depreciation of the Indian rupee from Rs. 49.45 to the U.S. dollar at appraisal to Rs. 70.64 to the US dollar at completion, the project had considerable loan savings. The project utilized a substantial portion of these savings by undertaking additional civil works and road safety works. There were discussions between the World Bank and GoI to cancel the remaining savings; however, given the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in India in 2017 and the related uncertainties, GoI decided that it would be prudent to retain the original loan amount unchanged. This resulted in US$35 million of the loan not being utilized at project completion.

36. Funds from GoI for expenditures incurred on land acquisition, utility shifting, and contractors, were delayed; however, GoA funded these expenditures from its own sources. All key decisions were taken by the Assam Finance Department in the absence of adequate delegation of powers to the Project Director. Implementation was affected by delays in deciding on re-tendering, social safeguards, quality of works, procurement delays, timely and adequate budget allocation, and in making timely payments to contractors. In addition, there were problems in availability of aggregates (particularly acute in an environmentally-sensitive region like the NE) following the Supreme Court ban, which affected project delivery. The PMU, with guidance from the Bank, was able to take corrective actions to turn the project around from its problem status. However, this resulted in the loan closing date having to be extended by 18 months.

37. Based on the above discussion, the overall efficiency of the project is rated Modest.

D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING

38. Split Evaluation. The PDO remained unchanged throughout and the project components were also not changed. However, the scope of works was modified through a Level 2 restructuring, with the


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overall civil works expanded with a reduction in the upgrading of roads and increase in road rehabilitation. The restructuring also resulted in the targets of outcome indicator (iv) being reduced. However, the project achieved results that exceeded both the initial and restructured targets of PDO indicator (iv). As a result, the efficacy rating of the project, using pre- and post-restructuring targets, is the same, i.e., Substantial.

39. For the record, a split evaluation has been carried out, as shown in Table 5 below. The overall project outcome is rated Moderately Satisfactory.

Table 5. Overall Outcome Rating17 Based on Split Evaluation

Without Restructuring With Restructuring

Relevance of PDO High

Efficacy (PDO) Substantial Substantial

Efficiency Modest

1 Outcome ratings Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory

2 Numerical value of the outcome ratings 4 4

3 Disbursement US$128.84 million US$156.16 million18

4 Share of disbursement 45% 55%

5 Weighted value of the outcome rating (Row 2 X Row 4)

1.8 2.2

6 Final Outcome rating Moderately Satisfactory

(1.8 + 2.2 = 4.0)

E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)

Gender

40. Skill development training aimed at income restoration for beneficiaries (either PAPs or family members of PAPs) was imparted to 200 people, of which 57.5 percent were female. These included: (i) 30-day training on basic computer skills; (ii) 15-day training for weaving; (iii) two-day training in fruit processing and preservation; and (iv) 21-day training on Basic Beautician course. Despite the limited duration of the training on fruit processing and preservation and the Basic Beautician Course, the training was well appreciated by women who appeared confident of initiating this as an income generation activity.

Climate Benefits

41. At appraisal, project roads were found to be prone to flooding caused by heavy rainfall and many roads were impassable during the rainy season. Under the project, new climate resilient material, i.e., geo bags, were used in the construction of spurs and for slope stabilization to minimize the consumption of boulders, and ultimately save the hills and minimize air, water and noise pollution.

17 Highly Unsatisfactory (1); Unsatisfactory (2); Moderately Unsatisfactory (3); Moderately Satisfactory (4); Satisfactory (5); Highly Satisfactory (6) 18 This is an approximate amount, since the project grace period has been extended to March 31, 2020. The current actual disbursed amount is US$283 million, and the inability to utilize US$39 million of the loan (12.1 percent).


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Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

42. Roads are crucial for development in Assam and the project provided people living in the project area with better access to hospitals, schools, jobs and markets. ASRP succeeded in enhancing connectivity in all districts of Assam, which covered and potentially benefited more than 26 million people (85 percent of the population of Assam).

43. In many districts, no all-season roads existed, people could not reach markets to sell their produce and were cut off from families and services in other towns and villages. As an example, after the construction of the missing link of Barpeta road, the price of tomato traded at the Barpeta town market increased from Rs. 4 to Rs. 5 per kilogram to Rs. 25 to Rs. 35, a five-fold price increase which directly contributed to the farmers’ income growth. Land value appreciated tenfold as a result of the influx of businesses and settlements closer to the road. Roadside retail businesses are flourishing. Due to the road, new schools have been set up in the villages along the road. Moreover, farmers have better access to off-farm jobs in Barpeta town.

HIV/ AIDS Awareness

44. This project supported the HIV/ AIDS awareness program. As per the National AIDS Control Organization reports, Assam has been categorized as a highly vulnerable state for the spread of the disease, highlighting the need for an appropriate prevention strategy for the control and spread of AIDS. Based on information collected from the Assam State AIDS Control Society (ASACS) on the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, appropriate measures were identified to create awareness for the prevention of HIV/AIDS among the road users, the PAPs/PAHs and the communities living along the road side. An awareness program was conducted by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) at various locations along the project roads. Resource persons were engaged to deliver lectures on the prevention of HIV/AIDS. Leaflets of the ASACS were distributed to the participants and street plays on the prevention of an HIV/AIDS were conducted near project roads.

Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts

45. ARRTI as a CoE in NE India. ARRTI is aspiring to be a CoE, primarily for NE India. It is likely to promote good practices in road sector management in the NE and serve as a convening platform.

III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME

A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION

46. The project took nearly seven years to prepare, and the loan was declared effective after 10 months of Board approval in January 2013. The key factors during project preparation were:

(a) Seven-year preparation period. The long preparation was due in part to (i) the five year wait for the policy note to be ready, (ii) discussions with DEA on the size of the loan (given that Assam as a special category state would receive 90 percent of the loan as a grant), and (iii) overlapping activities. The Bank sought the creation of the road board and GoA approval of an asset management policy before supporting project preparation and appraisal, as these were considered critical to achieving the project objective in a sustainable manner.


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(b) Complex project design. The project was somewhat over designed for GoA and PWRD, as the concerned entities had limited capacity and no previous experience of working with the Bank. The capacity of the construction industry in the North East and Assam was limited and very few institutional strengthening activities had been carried out in Assam in the transport sector. PWRD had no exposure to subjects such as an Asset Management System.

(c) Inadequate identification of risks and mitigation measures. The overall risk rating at project appraisal was ‘moderate’ and implementing agency risks were rated ‘moderate’ for both Capacity and Governance. Considering the ambitious project activities and the limited institutional capacity, the ratings should have been Substantial, with additional mitigation measures put in place to strengthen implementing agency capacity.

(d) Project Readiness. The project was ready for implementation, based on the GoI’s criterion for implementation readiness, that is, contracts valued at 30 percent of project costs are ready for award by loan approval. GoA had prepared most of the feasibility studies, initiated bidding, completed environmental and social impact assessments, and implementation arrangements were in place.

B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION

47. The loan was extended for eighteen months from its original closing date to allow sufficient time for the completion of key activities, including the re-tendering of the terminated civil works contracts, institutional strengthening activities, and road safety activities; this resulted in a seven-year project implementation period. Despite the very good initial momentum, implementation progress was downgraded to Moderately Unsatisfactory, mainly due to the poor contractor performance, within the first three years of implementation. Other factors that contributed to the downgrading of the rating were the poor progress of civil works, procurement delays and slow disbursement.

Factors Subject to the Control of the Government and/or Implementing Entities

48. Land acquisition. Land acquisition and utility shifting warrants a great deal of coordination among different government departments. PWRD was proactive in engaging NGOs for Land Acquisition processing, which enabled the land acquisition and rehabilitation and resettlement activities to be handled in an efficient manner. Compensation, barring for one package, was largely paid on time. The only bottleneck was not having a dedicated social safeguard specialist in the PWRD during the initial phase of the project, which was subsequently addressed. The project, however, experienced some delays in acquiring land due to the inadequate land records at the district level.

49. Stakeholder coordination. Road Safety implementation was affected by stakeholder coordination issues, leading to substantial delays in decision making. As a result, the road safety action plan, which warranted extensive coordination between the stakeholder departments (Transport Department, PWRD, Police Department, Health Department and Education Department), could not be implemented in the intended manner.

50. Capacity building. Project implementation was affected by the frequent turnover of PWRD staff and shortage of key staff across all key disciplines. However, institutional capacity built under the project


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resulted in accelerated progress to deliver outputs, mutual trust and confidence, and generally delivered results that exceeded targets.

51. Procurement. There were significant delays in civil works contracts due to the poor performance of the big local contractors. In view of this, it was decided to terminate poor performing contracts, re-tender them in smaller packages to enable mid-size local contractors to participate and speed up administrative approvals for the completion of pre-construction activities. PWRD acted swiftly to take the corrective action of re-tendering these packages.

Factors Subject to the World Bank Control

52. Project management and supervision. World Bank implementation support was initially adequate, especially as this was the Bank’s first transport project in Assam. After the midterm review (MTR), the Bank intensified its support, particularly in procurement and contract management, as the project was in problem status for more than a year.

Factors Outside the Control of Government and/or Implementing Entities

53. Depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. As noted earlier, the Indian Rupee depreciated against the US dollar from the time the loan became effective. This had a significant impact on project disbursements and ultimately resulted in non-utilization of US$35 million19 of the loan at completion.

IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)

M&E Design

54. The PDO and intermediate results indicators were designed to assess progress towards the achievement of the PDO. The moderate shortcomings in the PDO indicators and intermediate indicator target values (see earlier discussion) were addressed through the 2018 Level 2 project restructuring. The revised definition of the PDO indicators was more realistic to measure the project’s achievements. The PDO indicator “Road Safety Rating” was rightly dropped as it was not directly linked to the PDO, whose focus was on connectivity.

55. The intermediate indicators were well designed to measure progress of road infrastructure construction, the achievement of road sector modernization, and the actions taken for road safety management. However, the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) indicators focused on measuring PWRD implementation performance as indirect outcome, rather than “enhancing road connectivity” directly contributed to the PDO, which ought not to have been included in the Results Framework. The dropped intermediate indicator “Annual district performance reports and maintenance plans published” was already a part of the PDO Level indicator “Improved Asset Management”. The dropped indicator “Effective execution of maintenance works” did not have any direct impact on the project since the maintenance

19 As described in footnote 18.


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would be done through the state budget allocation. Some indicators, that is “reduced percent of travel cost” could have been considered as an intermediate indicator.

56. In retrospect, the shortcomings in M&E design could have been addressed through a restructuring prior to the MTR.

M&E Implementation

57. The M&E was generally implemented as designed. Adjustments were made to the Results Framework in response to the changes in the project and to fine-tune them for better reporting. There were initial data collection issues during project implementation; however, progress on PDO and most key intermediate indicators was tracked as part of regular implementation supervision missions and reported in Aide Memoires and Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs).

58. Since 2016, the monitoring spreadsheet template developed by the World Bank was used by PWRD to closely monitor progress. This spreadsheet was used to track and adjust the work program, which helped the project to turn around its performance.

M&E Utilization

59. Overall M&E utilization was hindered by systematic delays with reporting and issues with the quality of reports. M&E data and results were used to inform project management and decision-making, and the project was timely monitored and restructured based on the M&E reports. However, in the first three years, there was limited progress and therefore the flow of information on progress was missing.

Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E

60. The overall quality of M&E is rated Modest. Although the indicators were adequate to track achievement of the PDO, there were some shortcomings in the M&E design. Institutional arrangements for results monitoring were set at appraisal but reporting responsibilities and monitoring quality were neither efficient nor effective, and the PMU found it difficult to report results in a timely manner.

B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE

Environmental Safeguards

61. This project benefited a large under-served rural population and did not involve significant environmental or social issues. At appraisal, the project triggered OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment), OP/BP 4.04 (Natural Habitats), and OP/BP 4.36 (Forests). An environment management strategy was developed at the time of appraisal which involved: (i) avoidance of impacts on critical/ecologically significant natural habitats through a carefully designed screening mechanism; (ii) comprehensive assessment and appropriate design of the screened sub-projects in line with the requirements of regulatory norms and World Bank operational policies; and (iii) creating tools and systems for improving/strengthening the overall capacity of PWRD in dealing with biodiversity and other environmental management issues in a systematic and incremental manner. A conscious decision was made that the project would not finance any road passing/traversing through a designated protected area. Similarly, work on roads located within 10 km, but not passing through a designated protected area,


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would be taken up only after a thorough environmental impact assessment study was carried out with a focus on wildlife issues, and an environmental management plan was put together and disclosed after extensive consultations with wildlife experts, NGOs, and local communities. The project also targeted improving the overall environmental management capacity of PWRD and other stakeholders involved in the project.

62. One of the major achievements of the project was introducing PWRD to good environmental safeguard practices and the preparation of the related documents under the project; these were done for the first time in Assam. One highlight was flood protection measures under the project that successfully attempted to include the usage of climate resilient material (such as geo-bags) for the construction of spurs or for slope protection. These measures minimized the usage of construction materials such as boulders. The other major highlight of the project was the construction of three Rhino Corridors, which were reportedly the first of their kind in the state. To mainstream all the environmental and social safeguard policies that were applied under the project in the working culture of the PWRD, these were included in the Revised Code of PWRD, which is being reviewed by the different stakeholder departments at the time of project closing and will be submitted for cabinet approval.

63. In summary, the project largely complied with all the environmental safeguard policies that were triggered under the project, and in addition contributed to mainstreaming environmental management in PWRD.

Social Safeguards

64. At appraisal a social assessment was carried out, which comprised: (i) social screening for about 420 km of roads; (ii) census and socio-economic survey of the inhabitants of all structures and land within the corridor of impact for Phase I of the upgrading component; and (iii) consultations/focus group discussions and small group meetings. The assessment concluded that widening of roads to two lanes would not require extensive resettlement as the road improvement work was largely to be carried out within the existing RoW wherever possible. Approximately 80 per cent of the required land was intermittently available in stretches for the Phase I project corridors. As a good practice, consultations were carried out with affected communities, which resulted in minimizing resettlement, as well as adverse effects on Common Property Resources and road safety.

65. OP 4.10: Indigenous Peoples, was triggered since some project corridors were expected to pass through areas where indigenous peoples’ communities had settled. The results of the social assessment showed that the social and economic features of these households were like those of other categories of Project Affected Households (PAHs)/PAPs. However, considering the economic and social status of the indigenous peoples’ population in the region, a separate Indigenous Peoples Development Plan was prepared. However, while OP 4.10 was triggered at appraisal, it was never applied during implementation as the project did not pass through any major tribal settlements.

66. The project triggered OP 4.12: Involuntary Resettlement. Under the project, apart from the corridor specific Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), a resettlement policy framework was also prepared to guide the preparation of the RAP for the Phase II corridors. While most of the compensation, wherever applicable, was disbursed, in one of the packages the project witnessed deviation from the agreements reached under the RAP. The land and properties were acquired without paying compensation to the


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owners. As a corrective measure, the work on the affected package was suspended till the required processes were completed and the compensation funds were transferred.

Financial Management

67. At appraisal, the project had adequate financial management arrangements: financial management was ring-fenced, and ASRB was designated as the implementing agency to manage fiscal and funds flow matters. Budget provisions, funds flows, submission of Interim Unaudited Financial Reports and disbursement claims were largely timely; however, funds flow was delayed, especially in the last year of project implementation, leading to delays in payments to contractors. In terms of internal control, the project - despite periodic World Bank follow up - was not able to obtain utilization certificates for expenditures incurred on land acquisition, utility shifting, and so on, carried out by other agencies of the state; such expenditures had been met by the state from its own sources. The external audit reports were submitted with some delays and the project’s delayed response to the audit observations (Inspection Report) of the auditor general for two years resulted in lowering of the financial management rating to unsatisfactory for a period of one year. The issues identified in the inspection report were largely related to technical and contract management issues. While the project has submitted its response to the auditor general, it needs to follow up for satisfactory resolution, as part of the final year audit. The project audit report for the final year, that is, April 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020, will need to be submitted by June 30, 2020. The overall management of the Financial Management aspects under the project is considered Moderately Satisfactory.

Procurement

68. Procurement under the project has been satisfactory. Standard item rate contract was used for the civil works. Barring a couple of packages that were awarded through International Competitive Bidding, the project adopted National Competitive Bidding. The project awarded 20 upgrading and 43 rehabilitation contracts. Under the upgrading part of the civil works, about five packages had to be terminated due to the poor performance of the contractors and were re-bid after slicing and packaging them as smaller contracts. However, the delay in making this decision resulted in the project being placed in problem status and it remained under this status for a period of about one and a half years. One of the major achievements from a procurement perspective was the successful procurement of the RAMS contract, which was being attempted for the first time in the state. The RAMS contract attracted a good response and the end-product delivered by the consultant has received from different quarters.

69. The project was in compliance with the World Bank’s requirements in terms of the procurement methods and documents to be used. However, during the audit reviews for FY16–FY17, FY17–FY18 and FY18–FY19 some observations were raised by the auditor general regarding PWRD’s non-compliance with contractual provisions. These observations were subsequently responded to, albeit after a long delay. To sum up, from a compliance point of view the project had done all the due diligence; however, in terms of managing the timelines for timely procurement, the project could have performed better.


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C. BANK PERFORMANCE

Quality at Entry

70. The project’s strategic relevance, country context and environmental and social development issues were clearly identified at entry and backed by a relevant design. The World Bank team worked closely with GoA to prepare this important and very first transport project in Assam that included civil works, as well as institutional strengthening and road safety improvements. The project objectives were of high strategic relevance to the state, the NE region, and the country. The project was under preparation for nearly seven years for the reasons discussed earlier. The World Bank team reviewed the technical, economic, financial, and environmental and social safeguards aspects of the project and confirmed their appropriateness. M&E arrangements were designed to assess PDO achievement and measure project progress.

71. The World Bank task team pushed for the creation of the road board and asset management policy as pre-requisites for the loan, which was critical to achieving the project outcome, even though it took five years for the policy notes to be in place. The project design was comprehensive, while some factors that could prolong project implementation were underestimated: poor contractor performance, PWRD’s lack of experience in coordination, and PWRD’s limited capacity. However, GoA and the World Bank were strongly committed to the project.

72. On balance, while the project was generally well-designed, some of the risks were underestimated and these affected Project performance in the initial three years.

Quality of Supervision

73. The Task Team was very responsive to changes during implementation and worked closely with PWRD to address implementation issues. The World Bank conducted 16 implementation support missions in all, at an average of two missions per year, supplemented by interim missions and technical visits. The Task Team provided handholding support to both PWRD and PMU in identifying problems that hindered project implementation (Section III.B) and provided guidance to improve project performance (such as termination of non-performing contractors, repackaging contracts to enable medium-sized contractors to bid and thus strengthen the local construction sector, promoting high quality of construction, and featuring road safety in construction) which resulted in the completion of almost all project activities, albeit with some delays. The MTR in November 2015 was followed up by intensive supervision support for nearly two years, which helped to turn the project around from a long period in problem status.

74. The Task Team developed the monitoring spreadsheet template to support the client. Project progress was recorded and monitored weekly or bi-weekly by the supervision consultant and PWRD. Mutual trust, capacity, and the client’s confidence were built through the World Bank’s support. The project was timely restructured in March 2018, with an eighteen months extension of the loan closing date, as well as adjustments to the M&E framework.

75. Multi-disciplinary World Bank teams and just-in-time technical expertise participated in the missions and reviewed all relevant documents, before, during and after supervision missions. Land acquisition and utility shifting, procurement delays, stakeholder coordination and engagement issues


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were identified (as pointed out in Section IIIB). To increase the utilization of loan financing, civil works under the project were increased to account for the depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. Documents were prepared and issued after each mission, highlighting progress and critical issues, along with timelines for agreed actions. Action plans were prepared to speed up implementation and improve project performance, including compliance with the project resettlement policy framework. Key implementation issues were regularly brought to the attention of GoA and GoI, as well as Bank management. The remaining activity of compensation payment for land acquisition has been settled; this was confirmed by the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) mission.

Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance

76. In summary, based on above discussion on the quality of World Bank performance at entry and supervision, the World Bank performance is rated ‘Moderately Satisfactory’.

D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

77. At project completion, the risk to development outcome is considered Modest, particularly the project outcome of assisting the PWRD to improve and effectively manage its road network sustainably in achieving the primary target of enhancing road connectivity.

78. RAMS, which has been one of the major achievements under the project, is now being widely used by the GoA for making decisions related to road construction, including maintenance. While the roads upgraded and rehabilitated under the project may sustain in the long run and RAMS may enable timely interventions, the softer aspects of the project are at some risk. For instance, the RAMS cell has been partially outsourced and is partially manned by PWRD. Going forward, GoA and PWRD should consider deploying adequate manpower to manage the different functions of this cell and the RAMS system, failing which there is a risk of under-utilizing the RAMS and the system could potentially become obsolete.

79. GoA and PWRD also need to fast track the process of implementing the recommendations of several studies conducted under the project, for example, the reinstatement of the ASRB, and the revival of the Assam Road Research & Training Institute. In the absence of focused actions by GoA and PWRD, these units run the risk of either becoming non-functional or continuing with their current practices.

V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

80. The project provides a number of lessons which can be categorized under five headings: (i) project preparation and readiness; (ii) project implementation and delivery; (iii) sustainability of project outcomes; (iv) environmental and social safeguard impacts; and (v) estimation of pre-construction tasks.

(i) Project Preparation and Readiness

81. The trade-off of prolonged preparation is the realizable and reliable project outcome for ASRP. The five years spent on getting the policy notes for RAMS ready was key to strengthening PWRD’s capacity and ensured the project outcome delivery and sustainability.


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82. Client capacity should be fully considered during project design. The project design was somewhat ambitious, considering Assam’s development context in 2012. The weak client capacity to plan and manage such complex initiatives and construction packages hampered project disbursements in the initial years of project. The project started delivering only when client capacity was augmented by World Bank handholding support for a year, coupled with staff training on modern highway agency practices. Hence, project design should adequately consider the capacity of the implementing agency to plan and manage the project, and the design should include appropriate capacity building for staff in the initial years of implementation. Implementation timelines, local project management capacity, as well as the local contractors’ technical expertise and capacity for quality and timely delivery, should all be reflected in the project design.

(ii) Project Implementation and Delivery

83. The active engagement of policy makers and road agency staff strongly supported road sector investments and reform. GoA showed strong commitment to ASRP and collaborated closely with the World Bank, and actively supported the project at a high-level to steer the project when progress was lagging. Continued commitment during project implementation led to the acceptability of the PWRD reforms, accountability for progress, and sustainability of the works. This was in line with the lessons learned at the appraisal stage.

84. The World Bank task team’s hands-on guidance supported the project by building client capacity. The initial weak capacity of the client was addressed through frequent handholding support for construction supervision, project management and contract management, along with an emphasis on key institutional reforms. The project context of a previously conflict-prone region with weak institutions made this hands-on approach a necessity for turning this project around from problem status. Subsequently, the mutual trust and client confidence developed led to the expected outputs and outcomes.

85. Stakeholder engagement and proactive actions are critical contributions for project achievement. Poor initial coordination of stakeholders (both within PWRD and in the departments related to road safety: Transport, Police, Health, and Finance) led to substantial delays in decision making and sub-optimal implementation. It would be advisable to initiate proactive engagement with all stakeholders during project preparation. In addition, the Project Director should be delegated adequate powers to ensure efficient project implementation.

86. Timely decision making for contract re-tendering is the primary corrective measure to rectify poor contractor performance for ASRP. Delays in civil works contracts were mostly attributable to the lack of timely action by the big local contractors. The decision to terminate these contracts and re-tender the split packages (suitable for middle-size local contractors) resulted in speeding the progress of works and improved construction quality. The project could have been implemented more efficiently by making timely and adequate budget allocations to ensure timely payments to contractors.

(iii) Sustainability of Project Outcomes

87. RAMS has been mainstreamed in all districts of Assam with increased financial resources, as a result of:


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• A simplified asset maintenance tool that complements the more comprehensive but technically demanding Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) model.

• Covering the entire state road network, which enabled a more comprehensive road network analysis, and established relevance for high-level decision-making. GoA announced the “Asom-Mala” program for improving the state road infrastructure in the next 15 years, based on the RAMS outputs and the asset management strategy to develop the SH and Major District Roads (MDR) network.

• The focus on outsourcing. PWRD hired a consultant to collect data on SH and MDR road networks annually for three consecutive years, using the standard methods and data collection forms developed by the RAMS consultancy, and adhering to quality assurance requirements.

• Sustained institutional capacity building, focusing on recruitment of in-house staff and training. ARRTI is fast evolving as a road sector CoE in NE India. PWRD plans recruit engineers in the near future to staff the Road Asset Management Cell.

• The GIS based RAMS being integrated with the e-project Monitoring System to standardize and mainstream PWRD's business processes.

(iv) Environmental and Social Safeguard Impacts

88. GoA and PWRD lacked experience in managing the complex natural and social environment. Nevertheless, the project was able to include environmental and social safeguards in the draft Revised Code of PWRD as mandatory for future road projects in Assam. The first rhino corridor in India was built under the project and public awareness of biodiversity was raised through the project training program. Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Rehabilitation were mainstreamed in the road sector in Assam.

(v) Estimation of Pre-construction Tasks

89. Land acquisition. Land acquisition was a major problem, as no designated staff was involved in the land acquisition process. A robust readiness criterion for land hand over is essential to avoid time and cost overruns. This could include a provision for annual adjustment of resettlement payments or continuous land acquisition to ensure timely availability of adequate land for civil works.

90. Utility Shifting. Utility shifting was underestimated at the pre-construction stage. With RAMS having been adopted in all districts, transaction costs and time will be reduced in future upgradation of road assets.

.


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ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS

A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators

Objective/Outcome: Enhance the road connectivity of Assam

Indicator Name Unit of Measure

Baseline Original Target Formally Revised

Target

Actual Achieved at Completion

Secondary road network in good or fair condition (Percentage, Custom)

Percentage 25.00 40.00 40.00 55.00

01-Jan-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. This target achieved 55 percent, exceeding the original target of 40 percent by a significant margin. The overall target for road works was increased to 1,000 km from 500 km (500 km road works was 15 percent), however, road widening and upgrading reduced 50 km to 250 km, and pavement rehabilitation and strengthening increased 350 km to 550 km). (“Secondary road network in good or fair condition”) did not have a definition for “fair condition” of the road; the definition of fair condition of roads as IRI between 4-6 was included during the restructuring.



Target



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Reduction in travel time on the project corridors (Percentage, Custom)

Percentage 0.00 20.00 23.00

01-Jan-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. This target included widening and upgrading roads (achieved 23 percent reduction in travel time), and pavement rehabilitation and strengthening roads (achieved 27 percent reduction in travel time). This target exceeded the original target of 20 percent.

Objective/Outcome: Effective management of road network



Target


Improved Asset Management (Number, Custom)

Percentage 0.00 50.00 40.00 81.00

01-Jan-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. This revised target achieved the maximum number against a possible total of 81 activities, three activities in all 27 districts.This target exceeded the original target of 40 activities by a significant margin.

A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators


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Component: Civil Works



Target


Road improvement and rehabilitation of 500 km core network roads (Kilometers, Custom)

Kilometers 0.00 943.00 1000.00 978.00

01-Jan-2012 30-Sep-2019 20-Mar-2018 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target marginally achieved. The target was revised from 500 km to 1,000 km. At the project completion, road Improvement of 248 km and rehabilitation of 731 km were completed, in total 978 km core network roads were improved, achieving 98 percent of revised target.



Target


Pilot projects on innovative design of bridges (Text, Custom)

Text None Length-wise 168 m has been completed. In addition, foundation and sub-structure work has also been completed on the balance works. The total physical progress of the bridge works is about 62%.

700 m 618 m


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13-Mar-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target marginally achieved. 11 pilot bridges of 618 m were completed, achieved 88 percent of revised target.

Component: Road Sector Modernization and Performance Enchancement



Target


Training of PWRD staff - percent staff receving minimum 2 day training annually (Percentage, Custom)

Percentage 0.00 25.00 25.00 26.00

01-Jan-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Percentage of staff receiving minimum 7 days training annually was revised to 2 days during restructuring. 360 out of 1,400 staff received training.



Target


Institutional strengthening of Text Not applicable 1. Road Maintenance 1. Road Maintenance


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PWRD (Text, Custom) Fund operational.

2. Strategic Core Network of 2100 km of SH-MDR identified. Currently planned to be strengthened under Asom Mala program.

3. Capacity Building Plan for Construction industry implemented including – setting up equipment bank, new business model for leasing machinery to private construction sector; Skill Development of Construction Workers; Pre-registration training to build contractor capacity.

4. HR and professional Development initiated through – Revision of Assam Engineering Service Rules, 1978; Preparation of new service rules for Junior Engineers; Preparation of Service rules for

Fund operational.

2. Strategic Core Network of 2100 km of SH-MDR identified. Currently planned to be strengthened under Asom Mala program.

3. Capacity Building Plan for Construction industry implemented including – setting up equipment bank, new business model for leasing machinery to private construction sector; Skill Development of Construction Workers; Pre-registration training to build contractor capacity.

4. HR and professional Development initiated through – Revision of Assam Engineering Service Rules, 1978; Preparation of new service rules for Junior Engineers; Preparation of Service rules for


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Grade III/IV staff; Strengthening of Assam Roads Research and Training institute to lead capacity building for APWRD.

5. PWD Code revised and being reviewed by Govt.

6. Annual Maintenance plan prepared through RAMS and submitted to Govt for 300 cr for 2018-19.

7. Web-based system for public viewing of road inventory and condition data enabled.

8. Computerized workflow of APCP for project management used for 6699 projects, available for public viewing.

Grade III/IV staff; Strengthening of Assam Roads Research and Training institute to lead capacity building for APWRD.

5. PWD Code revised and being reviewed by Govt.

6. Annual Maintenance plan prepared through RAMS and submitted to Govt for 300 cr for 2018-19.

7. Web-based system for public viewing of road inventory and condition data enabled.

8. Computerized workflow of APCP for project management used for 6699 projects, available for public viewing.


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13-Mar-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved.Institutional strengthening of PWRD within ASRP context, including: Road Fund Operational; Strategic Core network established; PWRD prepares a capacity building plan for the construction industry and starts its implementation; PWRD adopts an HR and professional development strategy for its staff; Revised PWRD Code accepted by Government; Road Board functioning as an apex body for the Road Sector; and Asset Management strategy adopted by GoA.



Target


Increased Maintenance Funding (INR million) (Number, Custom)

Number 1800.00 5000.00 5000.00

31-Mar-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. The budgeted Maintenance Funding: 16-17: Rs. 6,000 million, 17-18: Rs. 8,000 million, 18-19: Rs. 6,000 million, 19-20: Rs. 5,000 million, 20-21: Rs. 20,000 million, and 21-22: Rs. 25,000 million (planned).

Component: Road safety management



Target



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Development and Implementation of Road Safety strategy (Yes/No, Custom)

Yes/No N Y Y

13-Mar-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target Achieved. This target included: 1) Process initiated to prepare a road safety strategy; 2) GoA adopts Road Safety Strategy; 3) Road safety integrated in engineering tools; 4) Road Accident data-base operational in pilot locations; 5) Safe Road Demonstration program implemented.



Target


Road safety improvements (Kilometers, Custom)

Text 0 300 200 1000

01-Jan-2012 30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019

Comments (achievements against targets): Target Achieved, exceeding the revised target 400%. This target completed 1,000 km road safety improvement (including the 23 km demonstration corridor).


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B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT

Objective/Outcome 1: Enhance the road connectivity of Assam (Component 1)

Outcome Indicators

1. Increase in the percentage of secondary road network in good and fair condition [baseline: 25%; target: 40%]

2. Reduction in travel time on the project corridors [baseline: 0%; target: 20%]

Intermediate Results Indicators

1. Road Improvement and rehabilitation of about 1,000 km core network roads [baseline: 0 km; target: 1,000 km]

2. Pilot bridges projects of about 700 km [baseline: 0 m; target: 700 m]

Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1)

1. Secondary road network in good and fair condition 978 km

2. Road Improvement of 248 km and rehabilitation of 731 km, in total 978 km core network roads

3. 11 pilot bridges projects of 618 m

Objective/Outcome 2: Improve and effectively manage road network by PWRD (Component 2 and 3)

Outcome Indicators 1. Improved Asset Management introduced in the majority of the districts

[baseline: 0; target: 40 activities]

Intermediate Results Indicators

1. Increased Maintenance Funding [baseline: NA; target: Rs. 5,000 million]

2. Asset Management strategy adopted by GoA [baseline: NA; target: Yes]

3. Percentage staff receiving minimum 2 days training annually [baseline: NA; target: 25%]

4. Development & Implementation of road safety strategy Target


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[baseline: NA; target: Yes]

5. Road Safety Improvement on selected Project Corridors [baseline: 1 km; target: 200 km]

Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2)

1. The activities of Improved Asset Management were implemented in all the 27 districts in Assam.

2. Increased Maintenance Funding up to FY16-FY17: Rs. 6,000 million, FY17-FY18: Rs. 8,000 million, FY18–FY19: Rs. 6,000 million

3. All actions within scope of PWRD have been achieved, some of the reforms have been initiated and undergoing, deliberations in Finance Department.

4. 26% staff receiving minimum 2 days training annually, 360/1,400 staff

5. Safe Road Demonstration program implemented, GoA adopts a road safety strategy; Road safety integrated in engineering tools, and Safe Road Demonstration program implemented.

6. Road Safety Improvement on selected Project Corridors of 694 km


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ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION

A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS

Name Role

Preparation

Ashok Kumar Task Team Leader(s)

Shanker Lal Procurement Specialist(s)

Suraiya Zannath Financial Management Specialist

Mei Wang Counsel

Mridula Singh Social Specialist

Tapas Paul Social Specialist

Sanjay Srivastava Social Specialist

Neha Pravash Kumar Mishra Social Specialist

Parthapriya Ghosh Social Specialist

Supervision/ICR

Tesfamichael Nahusenay Mitiku, N. S. Srinivas Task Team Leader(s)

Satyanarayan Panda Procurement Specialist(s)

Mohan Gopalakrishnan Financial Management Specialist

Aruna Aysha Das Team Member

Rohit Gawri Team Member

Elena Y. Chesheva Team Member

Venkata Rao Bayana Social Specialist

Neha Pravash Kumar Mishra Environmental Specialist

Kazi Shahazada Shahanewaz Hossain Team Member

Tema Alawari Kio-Michael Team Member

Arpita Roy Team Member

Mohammad Roushan Kabir Team Member


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B. STAFF TIME AND COST

Stage of Project Cycle Staff Time and Cost

No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs)

Preparation

FY06 14.507 39,772.63

FY07 6.654 11,368.88

FY08 3.450 16,461.41

FY09 0 - 25.39

FY10 7.584 40,407.11

FY11 10.114 57,550.09

FY12 62.650 258,589.66

Total 104.96 424,124.39

Supervision/ICR

FY12 8.041 39,142.97

FY13 25.116 90,094.52

FY14 38.823 226,128.13

FY15 41.939 471,229.66

FY16 31.902 301,826.36

FY17 24.462 312,528.97

FY18 37.747 191,685.35

FY19 42.774 213,225.07

FY20 24.141 128,401.23

Total 274.95 1,974,262.26


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ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT

PAD (US$ million) Actual (Rs million/ US$ million)

Average exchange rate is approximate 1 US$ = 66.4 Rs 20

Component

Costs Bank

Financing Percent

Financing Costs Bank Financing

Percent Financing

A - Road Improvement Component

330.4 262.3 85 22,204.8 334.4 17,822.4 268.421 85

B - Road Sector Modernization & Performance Enhancement

20 17 85 882.2 13.3 749.9 11.3 85

C - Road Safety Management

11.8 10 85 249.7 3.8 212.2 3.222 85

D - Incremental Operating Costs

1.8 1.5 85 167.5 2.5 142.4 2.1 85

Total Base-line costs

364 290.8 — 23,504.2 354.0 18,926.9 285.0 —

Physical & Price contingencies

34.6 27.7 — — — — — —

Total Project Cost

398.6 318. 6 80 23,504.2 354.0 18,926.9 285.0 80.5

Front End Fee and

Refinancing of Project

Preparation Advance

1.4 1.4 100 — — — — —

Total Financing Required

400 320 80 23,504.2 354.0 18,926.9 285.0 80.5

20 This is an approximate average exchange rate during the project implementation from 2012 to 2019. 21 This is an approximate amount in US$, since the project grace period has been extended to March 31st, 2020. The current actual disbursed amount is US 283 million, and the inability to utilize US$39 million of the loan (12.1%). 22 Component C cost is much less than the projected amount at appraisal, since road safety related civil work was carried out under Component A.


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ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS

I. Summary of Results and Conclusions from the Economic Analysis at the End of Project

1.1 Upgrade of Roads

1. Economic evaluation was carried out for six upgrading roads, totaling 236 km length.23 Against the seven roads with a total length of 315.6 km, the completion stage upgradation roads total length was reduced to 236 km. In the analysis, the ‘with project’ improvement alternative was compared with the ‘without project’ alternative of minimum maintenance of the existing road: “Do Minimum,” that is, (a) Base case (Without improvements and with annual “Do Minimum” maintenance), and (b) Improvement Alternative (With improvement/rehabilitation and annual “Routine Maintenance” supplemented by a Periodical Maintenance at six year intervals). The results of the economic analysis conducted considering (i) final completion costs and (ii) actual implementation period and their sensitivity analysis after 20 percent reduction in benefits are summarized in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1. Results of the Economic Analysis – Upgradation Roads

Road ID Road Name Length (km)



EIRR (%) NPV


NPV (Rs. millions)

SH-03 Narangi - Bhakatgaon - Morigaon - Nagaon - Nalttali

77.62 41.08 6,320 37.22 4,833

SH-46 Dudhnoi - Gopalpara - Pancharatna

29.9 18.44 290 14.95 123

SH-31 Jorhat - Moriani - Mokokchang 17.35 38.40 1,610 34.62 1,224

SH-32 Borhola - Goronga 12.53 11.56 -6 8.59 -43

SH-02 Chapaguri - Manas - Barpeta 60.52 57.99 10,857 53.01 8,469

SH-22 and 42

Gogamukh - Ghilmara - Dhokuakhana

38.04 16.30 249 13.51 80

Combined 235.96 41.14 19,320 37.01 14,686

2. The end-of-project EIRRs of the above road stretches are in the range of 11.6 percent to 58 percent, which indicates that the project is economically viable even with increased construction cost and time over run. SH 32 had an EIRR of 11.6 percent, which is marginally lower than the minimum required 12 percent EIRR. In all remaining five road stretches, the NPV discounted at 12 percent is positive. The overall ASRP upgradation project had an EIIR of 41.1 percent and an NPV of INR 19,320 million, confirming the economic justification of the project. The consolidated EIRR at completion is lower than the EIRR at appraisal, which was 45 percent. Even in the sensitivity analysis, considering 20 percent reduction of yearly benefits for the analysis period, the EIRRs obtained for road stretches are in range of 8.6 percent to 53 percent, with the overall combined EIRR of 37.01 percent.

3. SH-02 and SH-03 are have higher EIRRs than the other roads due to comparatively higher traffic volumes with more commercial vehicles.

23 Of the seven roads considered for upgradation improvement in the processing stage, SH-45 Soibari - Sapekha Road (6.73 km length) was dropped and delinked from the program.


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4. The first reason which explains the differences in the EIRR is the increase in construction costs. The second reason is that the roads deteriorated between the time of the initial economic analysis (2012) and the time the works were completed, and when the roads were improved (2020). The third reason is the increase in project implementation period, with a time overrun of six years. These together have resulted in reduced VOC savings than estimated at appraisal.

1.2 Rehabilitation of Roads

5. 11 roads with a total of 220 km road length were initially selected for rehabilitation works. However, only six of these roads totalling 148 km were considered for implementation and economic analysis during the processing stage in 2012. The same six roads are now considered for the ICR analysis. Results of the end analysis is presented below in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2. Results of the Economic Analysis – Rehabilitation Roads

Road Name Length (km)



EIRR (%) NPV


NPV (Rs. millions)

Jorhat - Kamarbandha - Nagabat Road 32.00 18.18 72 14.82 31

Dhodar Ali Road 41.05 27.89 201 23.26 133

Lahowal Bordubi Tinsukia Road 27.23 39.54 310 32.62 223

Nagaon Kampur Baithalangso Road 25.00 28.46 247 23.47 163

Changsari Sessa Road 14.00 12.62 5 9.30 -20

Monacherra Ishancherra 8.50 20.60 48 16.83 25

Total 147.78 25.79 883 21.19 554

6. Conclusion. The above results of upgradation and rehabilitation roads show the robustness of the economic feasibility indicators under normal and adverse sensitivity scenarios including significant decrease in benefits, for many project roads and for the full program.

II. Summary of Previous Rounds of Economic Analysis

2.1 Upgradation of Roads

7. At the time of appraisal of the project, economic analysis was carried out for 315.6 km of seven road packages of upgrading roads. The existing carriageway configuration of all packages was generally single lane. Under ASRP, all the upgradation project roads were proposed for upgrade to two lane configurations. The economic viability of project sections due to upgradation was obtained considering reduction in vehicle operation cost and saving in travel time cost of passengers with respect to without improved project sections. The overall EIRR for the upgrade road was 45 percent with an NPV, discounted at 12 percent, of Rs 28,669 million.

2.2 Rehabilitation of Roads

8. At the time of appraisal of the project, economic analysis was carried out for 148 km of six rehabilitation road packages. The existing carriageway configuration of all packages was generally intermediate lane. Under ASRP, all the rehabilitation project roads were proposed for pavement rehabilitation. The economic viability of project sections due to upgradation was obtained considering


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reduction in vehicle operation cost and saving in travel time cost of passengers with respect to without improved project sections. The overall EIRR for the rehabilitation roads was in the range of 15.13 percent to 41.37 percent with overall value of 37.4 percent.

III. Approach and Methodology for the Economic Analysis for ICR

9. The economic analysis carried out in 2012, at the project appraisal stage, was revised and updated for the ICR with actual data as on completion of works. For this, completed ASRP upgrade roads, totaling 236 km road length only is considered, and analysed using the HDM-4 model. OPRC maintenance program road sections are not considered for the present ICR, as the required input data could not be made available.

10. Approach. The economic evaluation has been carried out within the broad framework of social cost-benefit analysis assuming the analysis period of 20 years including the achieved construction period. There will be reduction in road user costs of motorized traffic upon the improvement of the existing road. The economic savings at significant levels in the following areas are expected to occur due to improvement of the existing roads.

• Savings in VOCs

• Savings in Value of Travel Time (VoT) of passengers and goods

11. The economic analysis has been based on comparison of costs and benefits under two scenarios: ‘without the upgradation project’ and ‘with upgradation road project’. All costs and benefits are valued in monetary terms and expressed in economic prices to obtain the analysis on resource-based framework. The analysis is made road-wise and the results are expressed in terms of EIRR and NPV.

12. Construction program. The analysis period of the project has been taken as 20 years including construction time. The completed construction program for ASRP upgrade road network is summarized below, in which the actual construction period only considered in the analysis by leaving the spill over works in the beginning and end. For the analysis purpose, it is assumed that traffic is opened on completion of all construction activities.

13. Procedure for estimation of benefits. The following procedure has been employed to estimate the aforesaid benefits:

• Estimation Base year traffic and traffic growth rate – adopted from the ‘initial base analysis of 2012’

• 20 years analysis period including construction – retained as followed in the earlier analysis

• The time values are used in the VOC estimation

• Usual maintenance provisions and costs in ‘with’ and ‘without’ conditions have been considered

• Except the changed variables during implantation (construction cost, construction phasing and road condition), all other variables used during the processing stage were retained to the maximum extent possible. However, some of the data on the vehicle parameters, maintenance


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cost unit rates and road conditions were not available and the data from similar studies in that region during the same period and discussions with PMU officials were substituted

• Base year used in processing stage analysis (2012) is retained for the present ICR analysis and all completed costs were converted to the Base Year (2012)

• The model used for analysis is HDM-4

• EIRRs of the sections have been estimated with HDM but the EIRR of the packages and subsequently for the entire project has been obtained also taking together all the sections

• EIRR and NPV Estimation with the sum of benefits from savings in VOC and savings in VoT of passengers and goods

IV. Conclusion

14. The above results of upgradation and rehabilitation roads show the robustness of the economic feasibility indicators under normal and adverse sensitivity scenarios including significant decrease in benefits, for individual project roads and for the full program. The end-of-project EIRR for all the above packages combined justifies the project investment with more risk absorption capacity. However, this sensitivity is unlikely to happen as: (a) traffic is expected to grow to accompany the current economic growth, (b) there is no uncertainty on the cost of the works as all the contracts are completed, and (c) VOCs are unlikely to be reduced in view of the past trend for the price of inputs such as fuel, lubricants, tires, and salaries. Also, the estimated economic feasibility results are on the conservative side as the qualitative project benefits like tourism development, increased road safety, better highway environment are not considered in this analysis.


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ANNEX 5. CHANGES TO INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS

Original Indicator

Status Justification(s) Modification(s) Revised Indicator

Intermediate Results Indicator (Road Improvement Component)

Road Improvement and rehabilitation of 500km core network roads [target: 500 km]

Description and Target modified

Highly relevant to achieve enhanced connectivity

Road improvement and rehabilitation of roughly 1,000 km core network roads has been planned. Hence instead of 500 km, the target changed to 1,000 km to reflect the current situation.

Road improvement and rehabilitation of core network roads [target: 1,000 km]

Pilot projects on innovative design of bridges [target (no of bridges):10; baseline: 0]


Bridges were highly relevant to improve connectivity. However, “Innovative technology” not highly relevant to enhance connectivity.

The indicator renamed to “Pilot projects on bridges.” Also, the targets were modified to improve the measurability. The 14 Bridges included with a span length of roughly 700 m. Therefore, targets were revised as 700 m bridges completed.

Pilot projects on innovative design of bridges [700 m bridges completed]

Intermediate Results Indicator (Road Sector Modernization & Performance Enhancement Component)

Increased Maintenance Funding [target: Rs. 5,000 million]

No change Essential for maintaining connectivity and effectively managing Road Network.

None

Annual district performance reports and maintenance plans published [target: 50% districts]

Dropped Districts generating Maintenance plans using RAMS were already counted in the primary PDO indicator - “Improved Asset Management”. Hence this indicator was dropped

Effective execution of maintenance works24 [target: 50% districts]

Dropped Since the maintenance would be done through the state budget allocation, performance of this indicator did not have any direct impact on the project.

24 Percentage of districts contracting routine maintenance for a minimum of 20 percent of their network


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Original Indicator


Institutional Strengthening of PWRD

Targets modified

This is an indicator which is quite subjective. The targets were modified to only those outputs which were relevant for institutional strengthening of PWRD within ASRP context

Revised targets were given below: Y2 - Road Fund Operational, Strategic Core network established. Y3 - PWRD prepares a capacity building plan for the construction industry and starts its implementation Y4 - PWRD adopts an HR and professional development strategy for its staff Y5 - Revised PWRD Code accepted by Government Y6 - Road Board functioning as an apex body for the Road Sector Asset Management strategy adopted by GoA

Institutional Strengthening of PWRD. Target- Y2- Road Fund Operational, Strategic Core network established. Y3- PWRD prepares a capacity building plan for the construction industry and starts its implementation Y4- PWRD adopts an HR and professional development strategy for its staff Y5- Revised PWRD Code accepted by Government Y6 - Road Board functioning as an apex body for the Road Sector Asset Management strategy adopted by GoA;

Training of PWRD staff25 [target: 25% staff.]

Target & Description modified

PWRD engineers required to be trained to effectively manage the burgeoning network. However, the indicator needed modification to be more realistic.

The indicator description revised to “% age staff receiving minimum 2 days training annually”, as 7 days training is an unachievable proposition given PWRD’s current capacity constraints

Training of PWRD staff26 [target: 25% staff.]

25 Percentage staff receiving minimum one-week training annually.

26 Percentage staff receiving minimum two days training annually.


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Original Indicator


Intermediate Results Indicator (Road Safety Management Component)

Development & Implementation of road safety strategy Target 27

No change All the intermediate targets mentioned in footnote could be achieved within project closure date.

–

Road safety improvements [target: 300 km]


Road Safety Rating was not highly relevant to the PDO. Also, given the restructuring progress of Component 1, iRAP assessment of 300km Upgradation Roads was an unrealistic proposal.

The indicator renamed to “Road Safety Improvement on selected Project Corridors”. Target: Y3 – 50 km; Y4- 100 km; Y5 – 150 km; Y6 – 200 km

“Road Safety Improvement on selected Project Corridors”. Target: 200 km

27 1) Process initiated to prepare a road safety strategy; 2) GoA adopts Road Safety Strategy; 3) Road safety integrated in engineering tools; 4) Road Accident data-base operational in pilot locations; 5) Safe Road Demonstration program implemented.


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ANNEX 6. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS

BORROWER’S COMMENTS

The Borrower had the following comments on “Moderately Satisfactory” rating of overall outcome.

1. The ICR report of the World Bank has been thoroughly discussed with the team of PMU and it has been commented that an excellent report has been prepared by the WB documenting all relevant records of the Project. The project has turned around from a critical stage, which has also been reflected properly. We have achieved the project target indicators as revised in the MTR.

2. We are expecting a 'Satisfactory' rating of the project, despite all bottlenecks encountered during its implementation. We will try to put our all efforts in the forthcoming projects learning the lessons from this project.

3. We are all thankful to all members of the WB team, who have shown us right direction from the date of inception to the date of completion of the project satisfactorily by involving themselves as part and parcel of the project. Due to active participation in the Implementation Support Mission, the PMU is able to show the performances required to make a project successful.

4. We expect that the WB shall involve in overall development of the State of Assam in near future.

5. With this, I would like to request you to consider the rating of the project as 'satisfactory' in the ICR as deem proper.

6. Thanking you all.


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ANNEX 7. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY)

1. Loan Agreement between INDIA and INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT, Assam State Roads Project (LOAN 8136-IN), November 5, 2012;

2. Project Agreement between INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT and STATE OF ASSAM, Assam State Roads Project (LOAN 8136-IN), November 5, 2012;

3. The World Bank, Project Appraisal Document for the Assam State Roads Project, February 17, 2012;

4. The World Bank, Restructuring Papers for the Assam State Roads Project, March 2018;

5. The World Bank, Aide Memoires and Implementation Status and Results Reports for the Assam State Roads Project, 2012-2019.


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ANNEX 8. ASRP VIDEO ON ROAD SAFETY

https://drive.google.com/file/d/13ZaqHwaDfNGeTCcM2iYFqM8s-bZJb-c5/view

https://drive.google.com/file/d/13ZaqHwaDfNGeTCcM2iYFqM8s-bZJb-c5/view


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ANNEX 9. PROJECT MAP a

Note: a. Provided by Assam State PWRD, and the map was cleared by WB Map Clearance Team on February 27, 2020.

Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR)...

Documents

Transcript of Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR)...