ICR Conference Presentation: January...

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ICR Conference Presentation: January 2018

Transcript of ICR Conference Presentation: January...

Page 1: ICR Conference Presentation: January 2018s21.q4cdn.com/.../01/ICR-Conference-2018-Presentation.pdf · 2018-01-09 · ICR Conference Presentation: January 2018. Forward Looking Statements

ICR Conference Presentation: January 2018

Page 2: ICR Conference Presentation: January 2018s21.q4cdn.com/.../01/ICR-Conference-2018-Presentation.pdf · 2018-01-09 · ICR Conference Presentation: January 2018. Forward Looking Statements

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains “forward-looking” statements that involve risks, uncertainties andassumptions. If the risks or uncertainties ever materialize or the assumptions prove incorrect, theCompany’s results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-lookingstatements. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be deemed forward-looking,including, but not limited to, the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning,among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects,growth, strategies and the industry in which we operate and any statements of assumptions underlyingany of the foregoing. These statements are based on estimates and information available to us at thetime of this presentation and are not guarantees of future performance.

These forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions and are subject to risks anduncertainties, including those described in the “Risk Factors” section and elsewhere in the preliminaryprospectus for this offering. You should read the prospectus, including the Risk Factors set forth thereinand the documents that the Company has filed as exhibits to the registration statement, of which theprospectus is a part, completely and with the understanding that if any such risks or uncertaintiesmaterialize or if any of the relevant assumptions prove incorrect, the Company’s actual results coulddiffer materially from the results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Except asrequired by law we assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements publicly, or toupdate the reasons why actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements, even if new information becomes available in the future.

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Safe Harbor

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o A disruptive innovation in a huge and growing

industry

o A socially responsible, pet health-centric brand

built around the contemporary consumer

o We are redefining what good pet food is in ways

that are intuitive to consumers

o We deliver a value proposition relevant to the

average consumer and every class of pet

retailer

o We have a scalable and very difficult to replicate

business model

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Who Is Freshpet?

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Freshpet Lives at the Intersection of

Two Very Powerful Macro-Trends in CPG

Humanization

of

Pets

Fresh,

Wholesome,

All-Natural

Foods

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We Operate DifferentlyDelighting consumers with fresh food & our company ideology

Environmentally

Focused

Employee

Engagement

Community &

Consumer Engagement

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High Brand

LoyaltyAlignment with deep pet

parent emotional motivations

Differentiated Innovative forms, technologies, and

appearance

ManufacturingProprietary technology,

processes, and infrastructure

Freshpet FridgeBranded, company-owned real estate

Supply Chain Only refrigerated pet food network in

North America

Retailer PartnersDelivers benefits in traffic, frequency

and retailer margins

A Difficult Business to Replicate

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With Growth Potential in Fresh E-Commerce

Strategy: Grow with winning players in fresh e-commerce

Curbside

Online Fresh Retail

Home Delivery

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In 2017, we launched our new strategy . . .

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The essence of our strategic bet in 2017 . . . .

71% Repurchase

Rate

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The best product nobody heard of . . .

1.4% Penetration

35% Awareness

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Well below our competitors . . .

35%

52%

86%82%

70%

1.4% 3.6%8.0%

5.2% 3.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Awareness

Penetration

Freshpet Rachel RayBlue

BuffaloPurina ONE Cesar

Awareness

(Aided)35% 52% 86% 82% 70%

Penetration1.4% 3.6%

(dry)

~8%

(est)

5.2%

(dry)

3.4%

(wet)

Source: 2016 Brand Tracker, IRI 2016 HH Panel11

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We increased our advertising investment . . .

+60% media spending

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017

Freshpet Media Spending($ millions)

$13.5

$8.5

6%

9%

% = percent of sales

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And the growth accelerated . . . .

24.1%

22.0%

18.2%

15.6%

13.4% 13.8%14.3%

15.9%15.1%

17.2%

20.6%

19.4%20.4%

19.9%20.6%

22.8%

24.5%25.5%

27.0%

28.4%27.4% 27.2%

26.4%

24.17%

26.18%

24.55%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Dollar Sales % Chg YA Poly. (Dollar Sales % Chg YA)

20+% fresh growth

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The media delivered an attractive financial return. . .

90% pay back(about 13 months to get our money back – and

accelerating)

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Increased awareness and penetration . . .

1.8% Penetration(+0.4 points)

40% Awareness(+5 points)

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27.0%

25.2%

23.4%

21.6%

19.8%

18.0%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

$150 $189 $210 $240 $270 $300

Net Sales ($ in millions)

Infrastructure as a percentage of Net Sales*

Which helped Freshpet grow into its scale in 2017. . .

100 bps reduction YTD

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*- Leverage adjusted to projected inflationary growth of infrastructure

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2016 2017 2018

Freshpet Net Sales(Fresh Only Growth Rate)

Fresh Baked

In 2018, we will accelerate fresh growth. . .

+15%

+20%

>20%

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By increasing media investment to further drive penetration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Freshpet Media Spending($ Million)

$27

$13.5

$8.5

6%

9%

9%

>9%>9%

% = percent of sales

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That will deliver even stronger growth in 2019. . .

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Freshpet Net Sales

Fresh Baked

+15%+20%

>20%

>20+%

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Putting Freshpet well on its way to our $300 million goal . . .

2017 2018 2019 2020

Accelerated Media Spend

9% Media Spend

Pro

jecte

d

Net S

ale

s

20

$300 million

$157 million

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• xxx• More stores

• Right stores

While driving both distribution and velocity . . .

• HH Penetration

• Buying Rate

• In-store conditions

Distribution Drivers

Velocity Drivers

Significant White Space

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

04/05/14 07/05/14 10/04/14 01/03/15 04/04/15 07/04/15 10/03/15 01/02/16 04/02/16 07/02/16 10/01/16 12/31/16 04/01/17 07/01/17 09/30/17

xAOC + PS Stores

Previously, store growth closely mirrored revenue growth . . .

Nielsen Measured Revenue

Growth

(includes pet specialty)

Freshpet Store Growth

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

04/05/14 07/05/14 10/04/14 01/03/15 04/04/15 07/04/15 10/03/15 01/02/16 04/02/16 07/02/16 10/01/16 12/31/16 04/01/17 07/01/17 09/30/17

xAOC + PS Stores

Until we implemented our new strategy . . .

Nielsen Measured Revenue

Growth

(includes pet specialty)

Freshpet Fridge

Growth

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

04/05/14 07/05/14 10/04/14 01/03/15 04/04/15 07/04/15 10/03/15 01/02/16 04/02/16 07/02/16 10/01/16 12/31/16 04/01/17 07/01/17 09/30/17

xAOC + PS Stores xAOC + PS per ACV Point

Now, velocity growth is a better predictor of revenue growth

Nielsen Measured Revenue

Growth

(includes pet specialty)

Velocity

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Velocity growth will drive the incremental growth rate to deliver our 2020 goal . . .

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Freshpet Growth Rate

Distribution Velocity

+15%

+18%

Growth Rate Required to Hit $300M

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27.0%

25.2%

23.4%

21.6%

19.8%

18.0%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

$150 $189 $210 $240 $270 $300

Net Sales ($ in millions)

Infrastructure as a percentage of Net Sales*

Driving significant margin improvement . . .

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*- Leverage adjusted to projected inflationary growth of infrastructure

By 2020: 9 pt. reduction in fixed costs

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Which will drive long term net sales and profitability . . .

+$156mm Net Sales

+$300mm Net Sales

+9 Points of Profit Margin+$16mm Adj. EBITDA

+$60mm Adj. EBITDA

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Delivering our 2020 goals. . .

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While positioning Freshpet for future growth beyond 2020. . .

HH Penetration

Buying Rate

New Stores

E-commerce

Geographic Expansion

10% of HH’s

+10%/year

10% of sales

UK and beyond

30,000 stores

Growth Potential: 2020 and beyond

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Further strengthening our barriers to entry . . .

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Delighting pet parents, pets, shareholders and employees . . .

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APPENDIX

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$7.47

$7.05

$5.31

$3.80

$3.30

$2.40 $2.40 $2.14

$1.92 $1.77 $1.73 $1.62 $1.55

$1.28

$0.61 $0.61 $0.49

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

Cost to Feed a 30lb Dog Daily

Grocery and MassSelect is middle of the pack on cost to feed

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$7.47

$6.48

$5.50

$4.50 $4.44 $4.37

$4.00 $3.80 $3.77 $3.75

$3.26 $3.09

$2.81

$2.50 $2.42 $2.12

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

Cost to Feed a 30lb Dog Daily Title

Pet SpecialtyVital is an economical choice in Pet

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