How Weather Influences Sales

2016 -2017 Winter Forecast and Holiday Outlook

Rosemary Radich | Head of Data Analytics

October 2016

• “Increased geopolitical uncertainty, the presidential election

outcome and unseasonably warm weather are the main

issues at play with the greatest potential to shake

consumer confidence and impact shopping patterns.

However, the economic spending power of the consumer is

resilient and it should never be underestimated.” – NRF

Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz

NRF 2016 Holiday Factors

2 | ©2016, AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary

• Human behavior

• Business

– What we buy

– When we buy

• Varies by geography

– Actual weather

– How people react

Weather Affects Holiday Shopping


• 2015 holiday sales increased 3 percent to $626.1 billion in

November and December

• Falling short of the trade group's forecast for 3.7 percent

growth

• Unseasonably warm weather and low prices weighed on

results

• Demand is extremely weather-dependent

2015 Holiday Sales Results (NRF)


• Majority of retailers are expecting promising sales

• Overall most are predicting a 3.3 to 4% increase in sales

compared to last year1

• The Weather Factor: How will weather influence predictions

for the industry and for your specific business?

1Deloitte, AlixPartners, RetailNext, ICSC

2016 Holiday Sales Promising Forecast


• Holiday sales account for nearly 20% of total annual sales

• +2.5% Holiday Average Growth each year since 2006

– Holiday online sales: increase 6-8% or 7-10% ($105 B /$117B

in online sales)

• Sales will increase by 3.6% to $630.5 billion in total sales

• Seasonal Employment: 640-690,000 new employees – in

line with 2015

2016 Holiday Sales Forecast (NRF)


• Partnership with Expert

Long Range Forecasters

and Analysts

• Are you expecting more

snow?

• How many days impacted?

• Which regions are most

vulnerable?

Know Where the Risk Is For This Winter


• Cyber Monday

• Giving Tuesday

• Black Friday

• Friday Dec 11th (Guaranteed Delivery)

2016 Top Desktop Holiday Spending Days


• Dec 12th FedEx SmartPost

• Dec 14th USPS Standard Post

• Dec 16th UPS Ground, FedEx Ground & Home Delivery

• Dec 19th USPS 1st Class/Priority, FedEx Express Saver

• Dec 21st FedEx 2Day

• Dec 22nd UPS 2nd Day, FedEx Overnight

• Dec 23rd USPS Express, UPS Next Day

2016 Key Holiday Shipping Deadlines


Understanding How Weather AffectsYour Business


• Reach optimum staffing levels

• Ensure you do not run out of

product

• Market the right products at the

right time

• Increase customer loyalty through

custom offers

Understanding How Weather AffectsYour Business

• Travel conditions to distribute products

• Product quality

• Safety and security

• Manufacturing and production of materials

• Power outages


Winter Forecast

• 1958 – 59

• 1959 – 60

• 1983 – 84

• 1984 – 85

• 1992 – 93

• 1995 – 96

• 2005 – 06

• 2013 – 14

2016 - 2017 Winter Analog Years


Departure from Monthly Daily Snow Totals


Days of Snowfall (Analog)


Departure from 15-Year Normal


Maximum Snowfall (Analog)


December Impacts

• Above average

snowfall for Midwest

and Northeast

– +3 – 6 inches

• Potential Disruption

for Holiday

Shoppers

– +2 - 5 days of

snowfall 18 | ©2016, AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary

Maximum Daily Snowfall (Analog)


Dec-Feb Snow Days Above 1” (Analog)


Dec-Feb Daily Maximums (Analog)


Dec-Feb Snowfall Totals (Analog)


Winter Impacts

• Northern tier will

likely experience

rounds of snowfall

throughout the

Winter

• Mid-West and

Interior New

England will be

especially disrupted


• Long, extended winter, especially Plains and East with

above average snowfall

– Storm tracks could develop anywhere from the Ohio Valley to

the East Coast

• Temperatures will be colder during the Dec – Feb period

with the exception of the Southwest.

• January is expected to be the wild month this Winter

2016 – 2017 Winter Forecast Summary


• December will be perceived colder than last but threat for

more snow especially in the Great Lake and Northeast

– Demand for winter-related products will be higher than normal

in these regions

• Frequent fronts, up-and-down temperatures, and some

snow spreading out from Rockies to the Northeast could

cause disruption for Holiday Shoppers which may boost

online sales

2016 – 2017 Holiday Outlook Summary


Thank You

Rosemary Radich

Head of Data Analytics

[email protected]

316-266-8017

mailto:[email protected]

How Weather Influences Sales

Marketing

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