The Impact of Weather on March 2009 Retail Sales

Preliminary Analysis: Impact of Weather on March 2009 Retail Sales

March 2009 Summary Analysis

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•  In March 2009 weather represented a marginal net positive for retail sales

•  Weather conditions were warmer than during the same period in 2008 across a large portion of the US

•  Warmer temperatures in March are a significant positive driver of demand. In 2009, this resulted in greater physical demand for seasonal merchandise than during March 2008

•  While the marginally better weather was not enough to offset the Easter shift and continuing headwinds from the economic downturn, final sales results may be slightly less bad than anticipated due to the more favorable physical sales environment

•  On a relative basis, retailers that are best positioned to benefit from this include: Gap Inc, Dillards, Wal*Mart/Sams Club, Kohls, Costco, and BJs.

March 2009 Temperature Compared to Normal Map Source: NOAA

March 2009 Temperatures




Weather Impact on March Sales

•  Example of the influence of temperature on retail sales in March

•  Old Navy same store sales change compared to the change in a nationally weighted Cooling Degree Index (weather source: NOAA)

•  Warmer temperatures correlates to demand for spring apparel

–  ~40% correlation


March Weather Sensitivity by Retailer


•  Estimated percentage of March same store sales changes explained by changes in March temperature

•  Provides a relative ranking of the weather exposure by retailer during the month of March.

•  Based on the period 2001 – 2008

Weather Impact on April Sales

•  Example of the influence of temperature on retail sales in April

•  National temperature change against the average comp store sales of a basket of 53 retailers (source: Global Hunter Securities and NOAA)


April Weather Outlook


•  Long-range projections for April indicate mostly seasonal to warmer than seasonal conditions in April

•  Some challenges in early April in the northeast mainly due to a difficult comp against unseasonably warm weather last year

•  Easter shift and the onset of the economic stimulus both positive factors in addition to the generally favorable environmental conditions

•  Maps courtesy of AccuWeather Inc.

Contact Information

Paul Walsh, Managing Principal

–  Email: [email protected] –  Direct: +1.917.463.4238 –  Mobile: +1.610.246.0623


The Impact of Weather on March 2009 Retail Sales

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