How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards
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1 1 FORESIGHT WORKSHOP - HOW CAN FORESIGHT HELP TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS? Markus Leitner, Rob Swart and Tiago Capela Lourenco 24 th of October 2016, Vienna
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Transcript of How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards
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FORESIGHTWORKSHOP-HOWCANFORESIGHTHELPTOREDUCEVULNERABILITYTOCLIMATE-RELATEDHAZARDS?
MarkusLeitner,RobSwartandTiagoCapelaLourenco
24thofOctober2016,Vienna
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PLA;ormforClimateAdaptaGonandRiskreDucGon
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CCA–DRROVERLAP
Source:MitchellandvanAalst,2008
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WHYLINKCCAANDDRR?
• Weakcoherenceandconsistency• ConflictsandbarriersbetweenCCA
andDRR• MissedopportuniLesforlearning
andcooperaLon• InefficientcommunicaLon
(misinterpretaLon/conflicts)• Messylandscapeofactors,riskof
repeLLonandconfusionforstakeholders
• ReducedeffecLvenessofCCAandDRR
ü• Consistentunderstandingand
approaches• OpportuniLesandimprovingpracLce• Enhancedlearning• Improvingefficiencyand
effecLveness• BeVeruseofresources• NewperspecLvesonthe‘wicked
issue’ofclimatechange• Aclearmapofwhodoeswhat
X
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PLACARD
Pla\ormforClimateAdaptaLonandRiskreDucLon(Startdate:June2015;DuraLon:5years)
Keygoal:EstablishacoordinaLonandknowledgeexchangepla\ormformulL-
stakeholderdialogueandconsultaLonbetweenCCAandDRRresearch,policyandpracLcecommuniLesacrossscales
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PLACARDFLYER
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HOWPLACARDWILLSEEKTOENHANCETHECOOPERATIONBETWEENCCAANDDRR?
• provideacommon‘space’whereCCAandDRRcommuniLescancometogether,shareexperiencesandcreateopportuniLesforcollaboraLon;
• facilitatecommunicaLonandknowledgeexchangebetweenbothcommuniLes;and
• supportthecoordinaLonandcoherenceofCCAandDRRresearch,policyandpracLce.
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WORKSHOP-INTRO
ForesightWorkshop-Howcanforesighthelptoreducevulnerabilitytoclimate-relatedhazards?
ClimateChangeAdaptaGon(CCA)andDisasterRiskReducGon(DRR)
• ParisAgreementatCOP21onclimatechange
• SendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReducLon
• both–majorstepstowardsincreasingresiliencetoclimate-
relatedextremeevents.
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QUANTITATIVEANDQUALITATIVEINFORMATION
• Long-termriskandresponseanalysesinsupportoftheseagreementsandtheIPCCassessmentstendtobedominatedbythedevelopmentandformalanalysisofRepresentaLveConcentraLonPathways(RCPs)andSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSPs).
• SuchanalysesareanimportantmechanismtoadvanceanalyLcalknowledgeaboutfuturerisks,theyconstraincreaLveanalysis
• BUTthereisacomplementaryroleformorequalitaGveforesightdevelopedbydiverseexpertsandstakeholderstoexplorefuturerisksandopportuniGes.
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WHATCANFORESIGHTDO?
ForesightcanstrengthenbothCCAandDRRintermsof
Ü science,policyandpracLce,andÜ linkwithotherinternaLonalmechanismssuchasthe
SustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)andÜ exploretheimplicaLonsoftheglobalagreementsfor
European,naLonalandlocalacLon.
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WORKSHOPOBJECTIVES
Ü ExplorethepotenGalroleofforesightmethods,toolsandprocessestoinformtheimplementaGonoftheUNFCCCadaptaLonandSendaidisasterriskreducLonmechanisms;
Ü IdenGfyrelevantlong-termtrends(globalmega-trends)andsurpriseevents(wildcards)anddevelopmentswhichwouldhaveimplicaGonsforDRRandCCA
Ü ExploretheneedsandprioriLesofconnecLngclimatechange,disasterriskresponse,sustainabledevelopmentandothercommuniLeswithrespecttoforesight.
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FORESIGHTDEFINITION(FLISINTERESTGROUP)
Foresight…v …isaforward-lookingapproachthataimstohelpdecision-
makersexploreandanGcipateinaparGcipatorywaywhatmighthappen,
v …prepareforarangeofpossiblefuturescenarios,influencethemandshapethefutures.
ForesighttypicallyinvolvessystemaGc,parGcipatory,future-intelligence-gatheringandmedium-to-long-termvision-buildingprocessestouncoverarangeofpossiblealternaGvefuturevisions.
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FORESIGHTDEFINITION(FLISINTERESTGROUP)
Source:hVp://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/eur20128en.pdf
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FORESIGHT
Current Realities (mental maps)
Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images
FORESIGHT
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FORESIGHT–USEANDHELP
Wheredoesforesighthelp?Ü takingthefeatoutofchangeÜ understandingyourchangingworld,thustakingbeVer
decisionsÜ reducingrisksÜ talkingaboutpreparedness–notpredicLonÜ avoidingsurprisesÜ stayinginnovaLveandrelevantÜ shapingthefuture,notjustreactÜ Startsbeforeplanning,notaher
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ONLINEDIALOGUE
• Focus:theapplicaLonofForesightacLviLes,methodsandtoolsinclimatechangeadaptaGonanddisasterriskreducGonresearchandpracLcetoexploreapplicaLons,addedvalueandexamplesofgoodpracLce.
– JointhedialogueonweADAPT:hVps://www.weadapt.org/forum/join-the-debate-new-online-dialogue-on-foresight-acLviLes-in-ccadrrOR/AND
– JointhedialogueonPrevenLonWeb
• Registerhere:hVp://groups.prevenLonweb.net/scripts/wa-PREVENTIONWEB.exe?GETPW1=A0%3DDRRIM-L%26t%3D&X=&Y=
• Loginhere: hVp://groups.prevenLonweb.net/scripts/wa-PREVENTIONWEB.exe?LOGON=A0%3dDRRIM-L%26t%3d&L=DRRIM-L
(weensurethereiscross-posLngofcontribuLons)
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ONLINEDIALOGUE
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DURINGANDAFTERTHEWORKSHOP
– ShareapplicaGonsandlessonslearntaboutforesightapproachesduringandabertheworkshop.
– QuesLons:• WhatCCA-DRRtopicscouldbeexploredusingforesightapproachestoachievebeVerharmonizaLonbetweenthetwocommuniLes,andhowcouldthisbeachieved?
• HowcanoutcomesfromforesightacLviLes,supporttheidenGficaGonoffutureresearchandimplementaGonprioriLesinCCAandDRR?
• CanyoushareexamplesofgoodpracLcewhereforesighthasbeenusedtodevelop(novel)jointCCAandDRRmethodsandtools?
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AGENDADAY1
PlenarywiththreepresentaLonsabouttheÜ implicaLonsofmegatrendsforCCAandDRR,Ü followedbyScenariosasaforesighttoolforCCAandÜ Climate-datauseforRiskReducLon–CCAandDRR
perspecLveLaterthreepitchesofMega-trendclusters:
Ü “Livingandworking”,Ü “Healthandwellbeing”andÜ “Safeandsecure”-followedbythreeworkinggroups
Wrapup,ReflecLonandinformaLonaboutthesocialevent
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AGENDADAY2
Ü Quickwrap-upfromday1Ü Howcanwereducefuturerisksofextremeweatherand
climatechange?-thissessionaimstofocusonacLonstoimprovetheeffecLvenessofDRRandCCAandgivesparLcipantsthechancetothinkofinnovaLvewaysofreducingfuturerisks–co-creaLngthefuture
Ü Roundtable-WhichlessonscanwelearnfromusingforesightforCCAandDRRintegraLon?
Ü Summaryandoutlook
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WHOISWHO
Ü WhereareyoufrominEurope?
Ü AreyoufromDRRorCCAorother?
Ü Background(research,pracGGoner,governmental,private)
Ü Whatwouldyouliketocontributeand/orgetoutofthesessiontoday?
