Higher Modern Studies

Voting Behaviour

Why were both these election campaign posters criticised by the public and politicians alike? Do you think those in media are more closely in touch with public opinion than Westminster?

2001, New Labour election poster showing Hague-Thatcher hybrid.

1997 Tory election poster showing dangers of voting New Labour

Starter Task

Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour

•Social Class•Social Class

and Scotland•Gender•Age•Race

Short Term Factors •Television•New Media•Newspapers•The Party Machine•Leadership

1. Social Class• Social Class remains a key influence. • Up until the 1970s there was a clear

two party system, with Labour seen to be championing the working class, the Conservatives the middle and upper classes.

• Since then, the middle class has grown in size. All the major parties now compete for the middle ground.

Class Categories Class Categories

A Higher Managerial

B Lower Managerial

C1 Skilled Supervisors

C2 Skilled Manual

D Unskilled Manual/ Manual

E Residual/ Unemployed

1. What is PJ Pulzer’s definition of politics? What do you think it means?

2. What is the word used to describe the link between social class and voting becoming weaker?

3. What are the names of the four different classes of people who voted in the 2001 General Election?

Class Voting and Partisanship

• Most people used to vote for the party that best represented their interests.

• THINK! • What are voters interested in? What do they want

politicians to do for them? • The majority of the working class voted for the

Labour party, while much of the middle class voted conservatives. ideologically labour was a socialist party- stood for redistribution of wealth in society in order to reduce major differences between the rich and the poor. individualist vs collectivist.

• The vast majority of the electorate voted either conservative or labour.

• Positive attachment to one of the main parties (partisanship)

• Dealignment started in the 1970s and exists to this day.• According to political scientist Ivor Crewe, a new

working class emerged, the C1 and C2 classes.• Sometimes referred to as Mondeo Man, this group of

skilled workers rejected Labour’s collective approach.• Instead they favoured the individual path to prosperity,

choosing Conservative solutions. The 2005 General Election saw social class remain a key long-term influence.

• 2010 reinforced this picture, with the Conservatives winning a majority of AB professionals and Labour winning again among DF voters. To sum up, the higher up the social class ladder we look, the greater the turn out of voters is.

• The lower we look, we see fewer people voting.

Today? • Partisan de-alignment• Explained by Professor Ivor Crewe• A weakening relationship between

social class and party support. distinctions between social classes have been eroded by changes in the labour market, the increase in female part time workers, greater affluence and improved access to higher education.

Old Working Class New Working Class

Trade union membership

Better qualifications

Unskilled manual

Owner occupiers

Situated in the north of the country

Core Voters• Floating voters. In the 1980s the

Conservatives gained support from the working class. Tapped into the upwardly mobile voter- buy council house, low taxation- the ‘mondeo man’

• Labour and the third way- catch all through low taxation, increased NHS spending and introduction of the NMW - gains amongst the middle class.

Recap1. What does Partisanship mean? 2. Explain the meaning of de-

alignment. 3. What is a floating voter? 4. Sociologist Ivor Crewe suggested

that people no longer vote along class lines-why?

Today we will…

• Understand the different factors which influence voters in the UK.

• Explain the difference between long and short term factors.

Success Criteria• List and explain

the different factors which affect voting behaviour.

Age• There are clear links between age and

party support. • Labour have outperformed the

Conservatives among the young and middle aged voters in the four elections prior to the 2010 election.

• Labour outperformed the Conservatives in the 18-24 age group.

• The largest Liberal Democrat support came from the 18-24 age group.

Gender and

Ethnicity • Labour made significant gains among

women under the Tony Blair’s leadership. • Women under the age of 36 more likely to

vote Labour. • Ethnic minorities are far more likely to

vote Labour. However the impact of the Iraq war contributed to a sharp drop in Labour support amongst Muslims.

• George Galloway- Respect Party, anti-war independent- Bethnal Green, London defeated the Labour candidate in the 2005 General Election.

Regions • There are clear regional variations in

voting. North-south divide is evident, with Labour support highest in Scotland and Conservative support in the south of England.

• The geographical divisions in voting behaviour can be explained in part by social class factors.

• Labour’s safe seats tend to be in the inner city constituencies in cities like Glasgow and Liverpool. In contrast Conservative safe-seats tend to be in prosperous English constituencies.

• 2010 election result saw an increase in Labour support- Scottish Prime Minister, Collectivist etc.

Short Term Factors •Television•New Media•Newspapers•Issue Voting •Leadership

Issue Voting2010 General Election• The banking crisis of 2008

and its impact on the UK and the world economy dominated the 2010 election.

• David Cameron had to convince the electorate that the Conservatives could do a better job than Labour in running the economy.

• Labour highlighted the inexperience of Cameron and Osborne and their millionaire background.

Issue Voting•The Conservatives strategy was to declare that another 5 years of Gordon Brown would be a disaster for the UK.

•Cameron spoke of the incredible depression of five more years of Gordon Brown.

•Managing the economy was the most crucial issue for voters. 36% of voters believed that no party had the best economic policy.

Issue VotingOpinion Surveys 2010

•This survey tells us why Brown and Labour lost but also why the Conservatives failed to achieve a mandate to govern.

• Cameron was seen as the leader with the most personality of the three leaders.

•Brown was seen as being quite inflexible with the least personality.

Bigotgate• Negative image of Gordon Brown

was reinforced during his meeting with 65 year old Gillian Duffy.

• Discussing the number of immigrants in the area.

• Microphone still live, he called her a bigot.

• Beamed around the world, Tories had a field day and Brown was savaged in the papers the next day.

He apologised for calling her a racist but Mrs Duffy refused to meet with him with a

photographer when he went to meet her.

The Media and Elections

• It was expected that the new media would dominate the UK 2010 general election.

• Sarah Brown successfully used social media to portray herself as the First Lady of British politics.

• Twitter page had more than a million readers.

• She used it to present the human face of her husband and to try and counter the negative image of Gordon Brown.

The Televised Debates

• Three political parties staged a debate. • The first debate was a triumph for Nick Clegg.

Brown was seen as too dour and Cameron too slick and nervous.

• Within days, the Liberal Democrats projected share of the vote had risen by about 11 points.

• Two opinions polls placed the Liberal Democrats ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour for the first time in over 100 years.

Newspapers and Elections

• In 2009 the Sun switched back to supporting the Conservatives.

• They began to vilify Gordon Brown. • ‘He (Gordon Brown) ruined the

country…We say David Cameron should be the next Prime Minister…Brown is dead.

Spot the difference

• There has been ongoing debate between the academics about the extent of which any one paper can influence voters.

• Professor of Politics at Strathclyde, John Curtis argues that there is no evidence to support this.

• The Scottish Parliament elections illustrate this point.

• Sun hostile to SNP but still formed a minority government.

• However, it has been argued that if they had supported them then they would have gained more votes (note 2011)

Rupert Murdoch • Politicians were

eager for his support as News International’s titles represented 42% of the media market.

• Cameron tried to gain Murdoch’s support.

There is concern over his control of the British

media. Too powerful?