Perilaku Pemilih

Andri RustaPertemuan 12

Sistem Perwakilan Politik

• Definisi

• Pendekatan Perilaku Memilih– Sosiologis– Psikologis– Ekonomis– Rational choices

Mempertimbangkan perilaku memilih

• Person centred voting theories

• ‘Rational acting’• Issue voting• Party leaders• Economic voting• Governing

competence

Party Identification Theory

• Pemilih belajar mengenai afiliasi politik mereka disaat mereka tumbuh, dalam setting seperti keluarga dan sekolah.

• Pengaruh orang tua dimulai dengan, perkembangan secara psikologis.

• This is called KESEJAJARAN PARTISAN.

• (Di Inggris) KETIDAK SEJAJARAN PARTISAN Sejak 1970; 45% pemilih mengidentifikasikan diri apakah mereka Labour atau Conservative in 1964 – just 13% in 2001.

The ‘Class Voting’ or Sociological model

• “Class adalah dasar politik Inggris - is the basis of British Politics – all else is embellishment and detail” (Pulzer, 1967)

• What did this theory propose about how people vote?

• During which years did it hold true?

• CLASS DEALIGNMENT is similar to PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT; class mobility has increased, and people don’t tend to think that everyone in the same social class behaves the same way.

‘Rational Choice Theory’• This theory states that

voters think rationally and make informed political choices.

• This theory depends on:– General political

knowledge;– Detailed policy knowledge;– Local and national political

opinions.• Can you see any

problems with this theory straightaway?

• What are they?

Don’t Forget to Mention:

• Shock Events

• Media

• Charisma of leaders

Dominant ideology theory

• Media representation of choices can sway a great number of people, according to Dunleavy and Husbands (1985)

• Effect of BRAINWASHING IS GREAT this is increased in a time where DEALIGNMENT is happening.

• Whichever ideology is DOMINANT in the media will therefore have a natural advantage at election time.

• How credible is it that voters are this easily led?

Some questions

1. Explain partisan and class dealignment, with an example for each.

2. Using dominant ideology theory, which political party in Indonesia has the advantage at the moment? Why is this the case?

3. What are the problems with the so called rational choice theory?

Determinants of voting behaviour

• There are long and short term influences on voting behaviour.

• These differ from the theories we have just discussed in that a number of them can act on a single person when they are deciding who to vote for in an election.

Short term issues in voting behaviour

ECONOMY

National or personal?

National issues – ‘The misery index’ (unemployment, inflation, interest rates);

Personal issues – ‘Are you better off than 4 years ago?’

PERSONALITIES

Is it more important in the US than the UK?

Can popular leaders compensate for unpopular parties, and vice versa?

Prof. Anthony King: “Voters are like diners in a restaurant – more interested in the food than whoever the head waiter is”

RETROSPECTIVE VOTING

Record of the previous government highly important, and not just in a negative way; both positive and negative records can have a significant effect on voting behaviour.

THE CAMPAIGN

Can be significant in three ways;

Is it well run;

Are voters ‘activated’;

Are voters ‘converted’?

Long term issues in voting behaviour

SOCIAL CLASS

Lack of class consciousness in the USA – not an issues as in the UK.

Democrats do not strike a ‘haves vs. have nots’ tone, as many more well off Democrats may be put off.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

76% identified with a political party in 1964; 60% in 1996.

Decrease shown by high levels of split ticket voting.

Links to rational choice and dominant ideology theory?

GENDER

2000; Republicans 53/42 with men, 43/54 with women.

Appeal based on interest in ‘family friendly’ policies; the “Soccer Mom?”

RACE

Ethnic minorities tend to vote for centre left parties due to their

more open stance on Civil Rights and equality

issues. This clearly favours the Democrats

in the US.

RELIGION

Highly important in the USA.

42% of Americans attend church weekly.

2000: Bush won 60% of religious vote, Gore won 60% of non religious vote.

• LONG TERM FACTORS:

1. Party identification and loyalty, or partisan alignment;

2. Social class and perceived membership of a social grouping, or class alignment;

3. Other factors relating to social structure, such as age, gender, occupation, ethinicity, and religion.

‘Issue voting’ (Short term)

• People decide how to vote by POLICY.

• Typically important issues are the health service, education, defence, and the economy.

• For ‘issue voting’ to become significant, it must be disproportionately important.

• Which issue might this apply to if an election were held tomorrow?

• Problems with this theory:

1. Events change quickly;2. Similar policies between

the main parties;3. Other factors coming

into play (Leaders, competence, etc)

Party Leaders (Short term)• A disputed theory, as most

people vote for their favoured parties or policies rather than

person – PARTISANSHIP.

• Party leaders have, though, become ever more important over the last two decades – Thatcher, Major, Kinnock,

Hague, Duncan-Smith, Blair, Brown.

• Their importance becomes disproportionate if their

opposite number has divergent views.

• Blair/Howard 2005.

Governing Competence (Short term)

• ‘Judgmental Voting’ or ‘How good is the Government?’

• If the Government is competent, it generally wins; if it is seen as incompetent, it will lose.

• Voters are also passing a verdict on the potential competence of alternative governments – but what is the problem with this?

‘Economic Model’ (Short term)

• Positive correlation between the economic performance of the Government and voting behaviour.

• If it has delivered a healthy economy, the Governing party is FAR more likely to be returned to power.

• 1999 Election ??• 2004 Election ???• 2009 election ????

Models of voting behaviour

1. Party identification;

2. Sociological;

3. Rational choice;

4. Dominant ideology.

• These models suggest that voting behaviour is influenced by both short and long term factors.

• Short term: economy, party leaders, previous government, election campaigns.

• Long term: social class, party identification, gender, race, religion.

• Negative voting, tactical voting, and split ticket voting need to be considered.

Party identification• Voters have a long term

attachment to a particular party.

• PARTISANSHIP and CLASS ALIGNMENT.

• Under this model elections and results will be stable and fairly continuous because voting patterns continue through families and classes.

• Problems and issues with this model:

1. Unsuited to a socially mobile society;

2. Cannot explain the rise of third party and independent candidates;

3. Cannot explain ‘independent voters’ at election time.

To what extent does this voting model still hold true? Has it become MORE relevant

in the last decade?

Sociological model

• Voters can be defined by their membership of certain groups;– Gender;– Class;– Religion;– Regional;– Ethnic.

• CONVENTIONAL WISDOM; – Women, urban dwellers,

ethnic minority, high incomes, high level of education – Democratic voters.

– Male, suburban or country, middle income, religious – Republican voters.

• Does this model adequately explain voting patterns in the USA?

• Significant blurring of boundaries between racial and regional groups in the USA.

• More ethnic minorities voting Republican as their incomes increase;

• Religion not a definitive signpost of voting intent in recent elections either.

Rational choice

• Voter acts in a rational way based on self interest rather than any long term habit.

• V.O. Key (1966) – retrospective or ‘adaptive’ voting;

• Hilde T. Himmelweit (1985) – voters as ‘consumers’ or ‘issue voters’.

• Model has flaws and benefits.

• Flaws – Bush on Iraq, Clinton and Lewinsky;

• Benefits – 2008 election, voting based on economy?

Dominant ideology

• Importance of the media at election time.

• Voters will vote on issues, as in rational choice theory, but only on the issues which the media declares to be important.

• The key difference between this and rational choice theory is that the media makes the choice on behalf of the voters.

• What argument could you make for this theory?

• What argument could you make against it?

Homework: The Political leaders• From what you know already, give

each of the party leaders (AT LEAST 3) a mark out of ten for the following:

1. All round capability;2. Calm in a crisis;3. Down to earth;4. Effective communication;5. Grasp of political issues;6. Honesty;7. Intellectual ability;8. Personality;9. Sound judgment;10.Telegenicity (How good they are on

TV).• Of these qualities, find an example

to use for three of them which would explain your mark.

• According to your work, who is the best all round party leader.

1. SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO2. MARZUKI ALIE3. SURYO PALOH4. MEGAWATI5. TAUFIK KIEMAS6. JUSUF KALLA7. PRABOWO SUBIANTO8. WIRANTO9. HATTA RAJASA10. TIFATUL SEMBIRING11. ANDI MALLARANGENG12. ABURIZAL BAKRI13. MAHFUD MD14. DLL....

Summary• Which of the

theories you have looked at is the most plausible?

• Are there any which you think are not plausible at all?

Homework• For Monday, bring with

you notes on the general election campaigns of 1992 and 1997.

• What were the major determinants of voting behaviour in these elections?

• Those of you with a textbook can use pages 25 – 27 as their starting point.

Information on General Elections

1997 and 2005 General Elections –

1962 General Election – The Labour leader, Harold Wilson, entered the 1964 campaign determined to end "13 wasted years" under the Tories. The populist Wilson seemed to reflect the public mood for

change. The Conservative leader, Sir Alec Douglas-Home, was widely perceived as a distant, awkward aristocrat. The economy had been faltering for three years, and scandal had hit the Conservative

Government. Despite sacking seven of his ministers at once in 1961, the Government remained deeply unpopular.

1979 General Election - The era from 1945 - 1979 had been characterised by a 'consensus' style of politics, in which the main parties mostly agreed on certain fundamental political issues and concepts such as the

mixed economy, the role of the trades unions, the need for an incomes policy and the nature of the provision of public services such as health and education. This was now to change, with sweeping reforms of failing public industries. Most of all, Mrs Thatcher's policies heralded a change in the politics of unemployment.,

where controlling this came second to controlling inflation.

1992 General Election - Tax was a key theme of the election and one with which the Tories hoped they could clobber Labour. To that extent it was a negative campaign - with the Tories liberally costing Labour's policy commitments as a £37.9bn tax hike - while in reply Labour campaign posters called a caped Norman

Lamont "Vatman". The Tory campaign under the direction of party chairman Chris Patten focused on hammering Labour over tax - and on the personality of John Major. The prime minister - who after a slow start found his campaigning feet when he reverted to using a soapbox to address crowds in the street -

made much of his Brixton roots, most memorably in a election broadcast.

Kaum Nasionalis: nasionalis sekuler, nasionalis pro Jepang, dan nasionalis anti Jepang. Golongan Islam Golongan Komunis

Indonesia merdeka tidak dibidani partai politik

Maklumat Pemerintah 3 November 1945 menjadi dasar hukum pembentukan

parpol. Pembentukan parpol didasari

kepentingan: memperkuat perjuangan mempertahankan kemerdekaan, menjamin

keamanan masyarakat, dan wadah bagi semua paham yang ada di masyarakat sehingga dapat dipimpin ke jalan yang

teratur

Indonesia merdeka tidak dibidani partai politik

Maklumat Pemerintah 3 November 1945 menjadi dasar hukum pembentukan

parpol. Pembentukan parpol didasari

kepentingan: memperkuat perjuangan mempertahankan kemerdekaan, menjamin

keamanan masyarakat, dan wadah bagi semua paham yang ada di masyarakat sehingga dapat dipimpin ke jalan yang

teratur

Herbert Feith dan Castles

• Pertentangan ideologi sudah terjadi pada awal kemerdekaan, terutama saat menghadapi Belanda yang berusaha menjajah kembali.

• Pertentangan Ideologi terjadi antara: sosialis, nasionalis, Islam dan ideologi lain.

• Pertentangan ideologi sudah terjadi pada awal kemerdekaan, terutama saat menghadapi Belanda yang berusaha menjajah kembali.

• Pertentangan Ideologi terjadi antara: sosialis, nasionalis, Islam dan ideologi lain.

• Bersama-sama dengan kaum intelektual yang tidak terikat (unattached intellectuals), partai politik telah menjadi sumber pemikiran politik.• Parpol pun telah menjadi sarana bagi alternation of power.

• Bersama-sama dengan kaum intelektual yang tidak terikat (unattached intellectuals), partai politik telah menjadi sumber pemikiran politik.• Parpol pun telah menjadi sarana bagi alternation of power.

•Sebagai systems of ideas, partai politik dalam kurun 1945-1965 telah mampu memberikan jawaban ideologis atas pertanyaan-pertanyaan yang muncul menyertai cepatnya perubahan masyarakat dan sistem nilainya.

•Sebagai systems of ideas, partai politik dalam kurun 1945-1965 telah mampu memberikan jawaban ideologis atas pertanyaan-pertanyaan yang muncul menyertai cepatnya perubahan masyarakat dan sistem nilainya.

PERTENTANGAN IDEOLOGIIDEOLOGI

POLITICAL PLATFORM

• Pada awal kemerdekaan konflik antarparpol bermotif ideologis.• Konflik ideologi muncul akibat perbedaan preferensi tentang masyarakat dan negara yang dicita-citakan dan hendak diperjuangkan melalui partai politik.

• Pada awal kemerdekaan konflik antarparpol bermotif ideologis.• Konflik ideologi muncul akibat perbedaan preferensi tentang masyarakat dan negara yang dicita-citakan dan hendak diperjuangkan melalui partai politik.

Political platform (ideologi partai): the party’s underlying value system

(McNair, 1999:6). “a statement of principles, goals,

and programs developed and supported by a political party and its

candidates”(Paulson, 2000: 1043).

Orientasi Agama: Santri memilih PPP karena alasan ideologis: kaum “abangan” memilih Golkar dan PDIP bukan karena alasan ideologis. (Afan Gaffar , 1992)

Orientasi Kelas dan Kelompok Sosial: perilaku pemilih tidak berkorelasi dengan kelas sosial, karena: (1) sistem ekonomi agraris-subsisten tidak memupuk kesadaran kelas; (2) penghapusan PKI dan pengebirian parpol melahirkan depolitisasi penduduk desa; (3) trauma pembunuhan terhadap “antek komunis”; (4) pemerintahan Orba menjauhkan antagonisme berdasarkan agama; (5) “menengah-atas memilih Golkar demi kemudahan-kemudahan.

Faktor kepemimpinan: pemimpin formal dan informal mempengaruhi perilaku memilih masyarakat Jawa (ulama, santri, partai Islam versus priyayi, abangan, nasionalis).

Faktor identifikasi: identifikasi kepartaian pemilih identik dengan identifikasi kepartaian orang tua mereka.

Orientasi isu: tidak berkorelasi dengan perilaku pemilih

Orientasi Kandidat: tidak berpengaruh terhadap perilaku pemilih dalam Pemilu 1992 dan 1997 karena yang dipilih tanda gambar parpol.

Kaitan dengan peristiwa: peristiwa yang menimpa kandidat yang diajukan parpol mempengaruhi keputusan para pemilih.

TERIMA KASIH

SEMOGA BERMANFAAT

& MENJADI

PENCERAHAN BUAT KITA SEMUA

Voting Behaviour• The US electorate

tends to be divided by religion, ethnicity, race and region.

• These are much more important in explaining voting patterns than class or income, which tend to predominate in the UK and Europe.

Voting Behaviour• Traditionally,

Republicans have been described as WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants), and the rest - Catholic, black, Jewish, and Southern - have tended to side with the Democrats.

entered politics in 1946 and won election as a Democrat to the US House of Representatives.

Voting Behaviour

• However, one of the key changes in the last 25 years has been the shift of Southern whites towards the Republican party

• although President George Bush's Republicans recently have fared badly in state and local polls, losing races across the US. Mr Schwarzenegger's

popularity has fallen sharply since 2003

Voting Behaviour

• What is the secret of the Republican's appeal to these voters?

Voting Behaviour

• For the last two decades, the parties have sought to mobilise their core supporters by appealing not to class but to "value" issues.

• The hot electoral issues in the USA are abortion, gun control and the environment.

• And many of these world views are linked to where you live, with city dwellers being both more ethnically diverse and more likely to hold the "liberal" views on these issues.

Voting Behaviour

• The rural voters, in contrast, hold more traditional views. They are strongly patriotic and less likely to question the President's right to set the foreign policy agenda.

Voting Behaviour

• they generally are more likely to oppose gun control and tight environmental protection, while worrying about whether there are too many abortions and single parents.

Voting Behaviour

• This polarises politics, with Democrats supporting Affirmative Action, redistribution of wealth, welfare rights, reform of the criminal justice system and other “liberal” causes.

• Republicans in turn, will emphasise policies which appeal to their white, middle class heartland. Issues such as tax cutting, law enforcement, welfare reform and cutting back on federal spending.

Voting Behaviour• This will vary

geographically. • White Democrats in the

South will be noticeably more conservative and will have more in common with their Republican “foes” than with black Democrats.

• This is because while they know they have the black vote “in the bag”, it is less likely to vote.

Voting Behaviour

• There is therefore a need to appeal to white voters in order to win.

• White voters in the Deep South are poorer, less liberal and more likely to vote Republican because of their social policies (for example, pro capital punishment, anti-abortion, anti-gay rights

Kanye West admitted having anti-gay views when he was young

Voting Behaviour

• The largest cities and the biggest states are now disproportionately Democratic, while the rural areas and small states are trending Republican.

• The Republicans lost six of the eight largest states in the last presidential election, capturing only Texas and Florida - but only just. However, again the Republicans ran strongly in the smaller rural states of West and South.

Voting Behaviour

• By European standards, both the Democrats and Republicans are remarkably similar in their ideology - or lack of it.

Voting Behaviour

• Instead, religion is a key element in the party coalitions, especially for the Republicans (although black Democrats are also strongly religious.)

• Evangelical Christians are far more likely to vote for the Republicans than any other group.

Voting Behaviour

• The Democrat coalition now includes both the richest income groups and the poorest - who tend to be disproportionately black or Hispanic

Voting Behaviour

• Bill Clinton drew both sides of his party togetherBill Clinton was successful because of his ability to appeal to both the urban black poor, and to the rich Democrats who were his main funders.

Voting Behaviour

• The Republicans are also a coalition of the Christian conservatives, who feel strongly about "value issues" like abortion, and the small business community, who are strong advocates of tax cuts and deregulation

Voting Behaviour

• George W Bush himself belongs to a special subset of the business community - Texas oilmen - but he has found it necessary to reach out to the religious right through his special adviser, Karl Rove. (pictured)