Voting Behaviour 1.Introduction 2. Participation 3. Results 1992-2005 4. Voting by Social Class 5....
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Transcript of Voting Behaviour 1.Introduction 2. Participation 3. Results 1992-2005 4. Voting by Social Class 5....
Voting Behaviour
1.Introduction2. Participation3. Results 1992-20054. Voting by Social Class5. Voting by Nations and Regions6. Voting by Sex7. Voting by Age8. Voting by Religion and Ethnicity9. Conclusions
Some Basic Considerations
Relative Parameters of Party Support
Fluctuations within the parameters
Problem of distinguishing between temporary and long term changes in party support
Influences on Voters
Social ClassEmployment SectorNational/Regional LocationHousing TenureAgeSexReligion/Ethnicity
2. Participation
Post-War Average circa 73 per cent
Highest 84.0 per cent, 1950
Lowest 59.4 per cent, 2001
1992, 77.7 per cent
1992-1997
Conservative Vote 14.1 m to 9.6mLabour Vote 11.6m to 13.5 mLibDems 6.0m to 5.2mReferendum Party 0.8m from Labour
1.5m from ConservativesConservative Abstention around 1.0
m.
3 Results 1992- 2005 Cons. Labour LibDem
1992 42 34 18
1997 31 43 17
2001 32 41 18
2005 32 35 22
4 Voting by Social Class
Social Class Distribution of the electorateA. Upper Managerial 4%B Lower Managerial & Professional 25%C1 Other Non-Manual 22%C2 Skilled Manual Workers 27%D Semi-Skilled Manual Workers 16%Unskilled Manual Workers 5%
Other 1%
Voting by Social Class, 2005
Cons Labour LibDem Turnout
AB 37 (-2) 28(-2) 29 (+4) 71 (+3)
C1 37 (+1) 32 (-6) 23 (+3) 62 (+2)
C2 33 (+4) 40 (-9) 19 (+4) 58 (+2)
DE 25 (+1) 48 (-7) 18 (+5) 54 (+1)
Class Voting by Con Lead over Lab Oct 1974-2005
ABC1
C2
DE
1974 Oct +37 -23 -35
1983 +39 +8 -8
1992 +32 -1 -18
1997 +5 -23 -38
2001 +4 -20 -31
2005 +7 -7 -23 Manual
Voting by House Tenure 2001 Con Labour Lib/Dem Turnout
Home Owners
44 (+1) 29 (-3) 20 (+1) 71 (+3)
Mort-gaged
31 (0) 36 (-6) 25 (+5) 60 (+1)
Social Renter
16 (+3) 55 (-4) 19 (+2) 51 (-1)
Private Renter
27 (-1) 36 (-3) 28 (+3) 51 (+5)
5. Voting by the Nations and Regions
Voting by Nation 2005
Con
Labour
LibDem SNP Plaid
Cymru England 35.7
(+0.5) 35.5 (-5.9)
22.9 (+1.9)
Scotland 15.6 (+0.2)
45.6 (-4.4)
16.4 (+6.3)
20.1 (-2.4)
Wales 21.0 (+0.4)
42.7 (-5.9)
13.8 (+4.6)
14.3 (-1.7)
Voting by Nation 2005: Northern Ireland 2001 & 2005
DUP
Ulster
Unionists
Sinn Fein
SDLP
2001 22.5
26.8
21.7
21.0
2005 33.7 17.8 24.3 17.5
Change +11.2 -9.0 +2.6 -3.5
Turnout Nations, 2005 Turnout %
England 61.3
Scotland 60.5
Wales 62.4
Northern Ireland
68.6
United Kingdom
61.2
Voting By English Regions2005 (a) Cons. Labour LibDem Turnout
London 32 39 22 58
Sth. East 45 24 25 64
Sth. West 39 23 33 67
Eastern 43 30 22 64
Voting By English Regions2005 (b) Cons. Labour LibDem Turnout
East Md. 37 39 18 63
West Md. 35 39 19 61
Nth West 29 45 21 57
Yorks/ Humber
29 44 21 59
Nth East 20 53 23 57
6 Voting by Sex, 1992, 2001 & 2005 Cons Labour LibDem
Males 92 Females 92
39 43
36 34
18 18
Males 01 Females 01
32 33
42 42
18 19
Males 05 Females 05
34 (+2) 32 (-1)
34 (-8) 38 (-4)
22 (+4) 23 (+4)
7 Voting By Age, 2005 Cons Labour LibDem
18-24 28 (+1) 38 (-3) 26 (+2)
25-34 25 (+1) 38 (-13) 27 (+8)
35-44 27 (-1) 41 (-4) 23 (+4)
45-54 31 (-1) 35 (-6) 25 (+5)
55-64 39 (0) 31 (-6) 22 (+5)
65+ 41 (+1) 35 (-4) 18 (+1)
Turnout By Age, 2005 Turnout %
18-24 37 (-2)
25-34 49 (+3)
35-44 61 (+2)
45-54 65 (0)
55-64 71 (+2)
65+ 75 (+5)
8 Religion and Ethnicity
Northern Ireland, especially
Ethnic Minorities
9 Conclusions
Class remains the basis of voting behaviour
…...but there has been a measure of class dealignment
Decline in strength of party identificationVoters are become more instrumentalA general rise in support for ‘Third
Parties’
