Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks...

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TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference June 9, 2010 John Davies Federal Highway Administration Office of Natural Environment 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks: Understanding Key Trends, 1990-2008

Transcript of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks...

Page 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference

June 9, 2010

John Davies

Federal Highway Administration

Office of Natural Environment

1

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

from Heavy Duty Trucks:

Understanding Key Trends,

1990-2008

Page 2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

2

U.S. GHG Emissions by End-Use

Economic Sector, 1990-2008

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

Industry

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Agriculture

1990-2008

Total U.S. GHGs +13.5%

Transportation +22.1%

2000-2008

Total U.S. GHGs -1.2%

Transportation -2.3%

2007-2008

Total U.S. GHGs -2.9%

Transportation - 5.9%

Source: EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990 to 2008. Table 2-14

Mmt

-7.4%

+22.1%

+32.1%

+27.4%

+14.5%

Change,

1990-2008

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GHG Emissions by Sector and Source in

2007

3

Source: EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990 to 2006. 2008.

Note: Above figures include international bunker fuels purchased in the U.S.

Estimates do not

include black

carbon, which is

produced in

significant

quantities by

trucks

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Change in CO2, Activity and Intensity

1990-2007

4

0.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Cars + LD

Trucks

Medium &

HD Trucks

Commercial

Aircraft

Passenger Miles +36.4%

Ton-Miles +55.2

Passenger Miles +62.6%

Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics , table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, table 2-15 .

Page 5: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Change in CO2, Activity and Intensity

1990-2007

5

0.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Cars + LD

Trucks

Medium &

HD Trucks

Commercial

Aircraft

CO2 +23.8%

CO2 +79.1%

CO2 +2.0%

Passenger Miles +36.4%

Ton-Miles +55.2

Passenger Miles +62.6%

-13.2% CO2 / Passenger Mile

+15.3% CO2 / Ton-Mile

-40.0%% CO2 / Passenger Mile

Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics , table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, table 2-15 .

Page 6: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Transportation GHGs by Major

Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

6

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

Light-Duty Vehicles

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Commercial Aircraft

Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, Table 2-15

Mmt 1990-2008

Transportation +22.1%

- LD Vehicles +18.7%

- Med & HD Trucks +73.6%

- Commercial Aircraft -9.8%

2007-2008

Transportation -5.9%

- LD Vehicles -4.1%

- Med & HD Trucks -5.6%

- Commercial Aircraft -11.5%

Page 7: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Truck GHGs and Diesel Fuel Prices

7

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Truck GHG emissions

continued to rise from

2004 to 2007 despite

rapidly increasing

diesel fuel prices

Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse

Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, Table

2-15 ; Transportation Energy Data Book

Diesel Fuel Price (Real 2008 Dollars)

Medium- and Heavy Duty Truck GHG Emissions

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Ton-Miles by Mode, 1990-2007

8

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Source: BTS National Transportation Statistics , table1-46b.

23.0%

12.0%

23.9%

19.6%

23.4%

28.6%

29.4%

39.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

1990 2007

Ton-Miles

0.3% 0.3%

Rail

Truck

Pipeline

Domestic

Waterborne

Domestic

Aircraft

Total Ton-Miles Share of Ton-Miles

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Freight Energy Efficiency in 2007

(BTU / Ton-Mile)

9

Sources: Energy consumption estimates derived from EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and

Sinks 1990-2008, with the exception of pipeline estimates, which were taken from the Transportation Energy

Data Book. Freight ton-mile estimates from BTS, National Transportation Statistics table 1-46b.

4260

899

21864

335

978

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Med & HD Trucks

Waterborne

Aircraft

Rail

Pipeline

Page 10: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Change in Freight Energy Intensity

(BTU/Ton-Mile), 1990-2007

10

Sources: BTS Table 1-46b and Transportation Energy Data Book Tables 2-7 and 2-8;. the

most recent waterborne calculations are for 2006; aircraft freight fuel consumption estimates

calculated by multiplying total domestic fuel consumption by the share of total

15.3%

-30.9%

-22.9%

-8.4%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Med & HD Trucks Aircraft Rail Pipeline

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GHGs by Freight Mode, 1990-2008

11

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

Trucking

Freight Rail

Ships and Other Boats

Pipelines

Commercial Aviation

Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, Table 2-15

Mmt

1990-2008

All Freight Sources +46.8%

-Med & HD Trucks +73.6%

-Freight Rail +28.5%

-Ships and Boats -21.1%

-Pipelines -3.2%

-Aviation -24.1%

Page 12: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

12

GHGs and Activity, 1990-2007

Freight and Passenger

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Freight (all modes) Passenger (all modes)

GHGs

GHGs

Ton-

Miles

Passenger

Miles

Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics , table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, table 2-15 .

Page 13: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

How Do We Explain the Apparent

Decline in Truck Energy Efficiency?

13

Sources: BTS Table 1-46b and Transportation Energy Data Book Tables 2-7 and 2-8;. the

most recent waterborne calculations are for 2006; aircraft freight fuel consumption estimates

calculated by multiplying total domestic fuel consumption by the share of total

15.3%

-30.9%

-22.9%

-8.4%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Med & HD Trucks Aircraft Rail Pipeline

(BTU/Ton-Mile), 1990-2007

Page 14: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Vehicle Load Factors

Without updated VIUS data, we lack current estimates of vehicle

load rates

Overall load rates appear to have remained roughly constant,

since truck vehicle miles and ton-miles have increased at about

the same rate since (~55% since 1990)

Load rates may have changed slightly by truck type

Earlier VIUS data suggested an increase in number of empty

miles traveled by combination trucks (result of globalized

trade)

Potential increase in load factors for urban delivery vehicles

14

Page 15: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Activity by Truck Type

Single-unit trucks have a

higher energy intensity per ton-

mile than combination trucks

However, their share of overall

truck VMT has not

substantially increased since

1990

15

Combination

64.6%

Share of VMT

Single-Unit

35.4%

Combination

63.9%

Single-Unit

36.1%

1990

2007

Sources: Highway Statistics , Summary to 1995 and 2008

Page 16: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

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1990

2007

Sources: Highway Statistics , Summary to 1995 and 2008

Activity by Truck Type and Highway Category

Ruran Single Unit, 19.3%

Rural Combination,

42.0%

Urban Combination,

22.5%

Urban Single Unit, 16.1%

Rural Single Unit, 16.2% Rural

Combination, 36.5%

Urban Combination,

27.4%

Urban Single Unit, 19.9%

More truck activity occurred in

congested conditions

A greater share of VMT was in

urban areas

Potential spreading of

congestion outside urban

areas?

Share of VMT

Page 17: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

Mechanical Factors to Explain the

Decline in Trucks’ Measured Energy

Efficiency

Not vehicle age, since the average truck

seems to be getting newer (5.4 years in

2002, versus 6.4 years in 1992)

Demand for more powerful engines?

Fuel economy penalty from implementation

of NOX and PM control devices?

17

Page 18: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 -2008, table 2 15 . Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, 1990-2008

For More Information

Federal Highway Administration Climate Change Website:

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/index.htm

US DOT Transportation and Climate Change Clearinghouse:

http://climate.dot.gov/index.html

[email protected]

FHWA Office of Natural and Human Environment

Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team