Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks...
18
TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference June 9, 2010 John Davies Federal Highway Administration Office of Natural Environment 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks: Understanding Key Trends, 1990-2008
Transcript of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks ...€¦ · U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks...
TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference
June 9, 2010
John Davies
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Natural Environment
1
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Heavy Duty Trucks:
Understanding Key Trends,
1990-2008
2
U.S. GHG Emissions by End-Use
Economic Sector, 1990-2008
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Industry
Transportation
Commercial
Residential
Agriculture
1990-2008
Total U.S. GHGs +13.5%
Transportation +22.1%
2000-2008
Total U.S. GHGs -1.2%
Transportation -2.3%
2007-2008
Total U.S. GHGs -2.9%
Transportation - 5.9%
Source: EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990 to 2008. Table 2-14
Mmt
-7.4%
+22.1%
+32.1%
+27.4%
+14.5%
Change,
1990-2008
GHG Emissions by Sector and Source in
2007
3
Source: EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990 to 2006. 2008.
Note: Above figures include international bunker fuels purchased in the U.S.
Estimates do not
include black
carbon, which is
produced in
significant
quantities by
trucks
Change in CO2, Activity and Intensity
1990-2007
4
0.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Cars + LD
Trucks
Medium &
HD Trucks
Commercial
Aircraft
Passenger Miles +36.4%
Ton-Miles +55.2
Passenger Miles +62.6%
Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics , table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, table 2-15 .
Change in CO2, Activity and Intensity
1990-2007
5
0.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Cars + LD
Trucks
Medium &
HD Trucks
Commercial
Aircraft
CO2 +23.8%
CO2 +79.1%
CO2 +2.0%
Passenger Miles +36.4%
Ton-Miles +55.2
Passenger Miles +62.6%
-13.2% CO2 / Passenger Mile
+15.3% CO2 / Ton-Mile
-40.0%% CO2 / Passenger Mile
Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics , table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, table 2-15 .
Transportation GHGs by Major
Transportation Mode, 1990-2008
6
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
Light-Duty Vehicles
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks
Commercial Aircraft
Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, Table 2-15
Mmt 1990-2008
Transportation +22.1%
- LD Vehicles +18.7%
- Med & HD Trucks +73.6%
- Commercial Aircraft -9.8%
2007-2008
Transportation -5.9%
- LD Vehicles -4.1%
- Med & HD Trucks -5.6%
- Commercial Aircraft -11.5%
Truck GHGs and Diesel Fuel Prices
7
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Truck GHG emissions
continued to rise from
2004 to 2007 despite
rapidly increasing
diesel fuel prices
Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse
Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, Table
2-15 ; Transportation Energy Data Book
Diesel Fuel Price (Real 2008 Dollars)
Medium- and Heavy Duty Truck GHG Emissions
Ton-Miles by Mode, 1990-2007
8
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Source: BTS National Transportation Statistics , table1-46b.
23.0%
12.0%
23.9%
19.6%
23.4%
28.6%
29.4%
39.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1990 2007
Ton-Miles
0.3% 0.3%
Rail
Truck
Pipeline
Domestic
Waterborne
Domestic
Aircraft
Total Ton-Miles Share of Ton-Miles
Freight Energy Efficiency in 2007
(BTU / Ton-Mile)
9
Sources: Energy consumption estimates derived from EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks 1990-2008, with the exception of pipeline estimates, which were taken from the Transportation Energy
Data Book. Freight ton-mile estimates from BTS, National Transportation Statistics table 1-46b.
4260
899
21864
335
978
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Med & HD Trucks
Waterborne
Aircraft
Rail
Pipeline
Change in Freight Energy Intensity
(BTU/Ton-Mile), 1990-2007
10
Sources: BTS Table 1-46b and Transportation Energy Data Book Tables 2-7 and 2-8;. the
most recent waterborne calculations are for 2006; aircraft freight fuel consumption estimates
calculated by multiplying total domestic fuel consumption by the share of total
15.3%
-30.9%
-22.9%
-8.4%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Med & HD Trucks Aircraft Rail Pipeline
GHGs by Freight Mode, 1990-2008
11
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
Trucking
Freight Rail
Ships and Other Boats
Pipelines
Commercial Aviation
Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, Table 2-15
Mmt
1990-2008
All Freight Sources +46.8%
-Med & HD Trucks +73.6%
-Freight Rail +28.5%
-Ships and Boats -21.1%
-Pipelines -3.2%
-Aviation -24.1%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
12
GHGs and Activity, 1990-2007
Freight and Passenger
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Freight (all modes) Passenger (all modes)
GHGs
GHGs
Ton-
Miles
Passenger
Miles
Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics , table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2008, table 2-15 .
How Do We Explain the Apparent
Decline in Truck Energy Efficiency?
13
Sources: BTS Table 1-46b and Transportation Energy Data Book Tables 2-7 and 2-8;. the
most recent waterborne calculations are for 2006; aircraft freight fuel consumption estimates
calculated by multiplying total domestic fuel consumption by the share of total
15.3%
-30.9%
-22.9%
-8.4%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Med & HD Trucks Aircraft Rail Pipeline
(BTU/Ton-Mile), 1990-2007
Vehicle Load Factors
Without updated VIUS data, we lack current estimates of vehicle
load rates
Overall load rates appear to have remained roughly constant,
since truck vehicle miles and ton-miles have increased at about
the same rate since (~55% since 1990)
Load rates may have changed slightly by truck type
Earlier VIUS data suggested an increase in number of empty
miles traveled by combination trucks (result of globalized
trade)
Potential increase in load factors for urban delivery vehicles
14
Activity by Truck Type
Single-unit trucks have a
higher energy intensity per ton-
mile than combination trucks
However, their share of overall
truck VMT has not
substantially increased since
1990
15
Combination
64.6%
Share of VMT
Single-Unit
35.4%
Combination
63.9%
Single-Unit
36.1%
1990
2007
Sources: Highway Statistics , Summary to 1995 and 2008
16
1990
2007
Sources: Highway Statistics , Summary to 1995 and 2008
Activity by Truck Type and Highway Category
Ruran Single Unit, 19.3%
Rural Combination,
42.0%
Urban Combination,
22.5%
Urban Single Unit, 16.1%
Rural Single Unit, 16.2% Rural
Combination, 36.5%
Urban Combination,
27.4%
Urban Single Unit, 19.9%
More truck activity occurred in
congested conditions
A greater share of VMT was in
urban areas
Potential spreading of
congestion outside urban
areas?
Share of VMT
Mechanical Factors to Explain the
Decline in Trucks’ Measured Energy
Efficiency
Not vehicle age, since the average truck
seems to be getting newer (5.4 years in
2002, versus 6.4 years in 1992)
Demand for more powerful engines?
Fuel economy penalty from implementation
of NOX and PM control devices?
17
For More Information
Federal Highway Administration Climate Change Website:
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/index.htm
US DOT Transportation and Climate Change Clearinghouse:
http://climate.dot.gov/index.html
FHWA Office of Natural and Human Environment
Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team
