Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update 1990 - 2015 · Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

Update: Brief 1990 - 2015

June 2018

Department of Environmental Conservation Air Quality and Climate Division

Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update 1990 - 2015

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Going forward Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update reports will be designated as either “Comprehensive”

or as “Brief.” Comprehensive reports will provide a greater level of detail on certain sectors and graphics than the

reports designated as “Brief,” and will coincide with the calendar year releases of the triennial National Emissions

Inventory (NEI) compiled by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This is due mainly to the fact that

several sectors in the inventory report are based on calculations and data from the NEI, as well as various other

tools and datasets from the EPA and other agencies. In many cases EPA’s release of this national level inventory

enables more robust analyses for the given year and provides additional emissions estimate checks for individual

sectors.


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Introduction - Emissions Summary

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates in Vermont continued to rise for calendar year 2015, increasing from 9.45 million metric tons CO2 equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2014 to 9.99 MMTCO2e in 2015. This increase puts Vermont approximately 16% above the 1990 baseline value of 8.59 MMTCO2e and adds to the difficulty of reaching the statewide goal of 50% below 1990 emissions levels by 20281 (Figure 1). The global warming potential values in this report are from the IPCC AR4 report and are consistent with those in the previous report (1990-2014). Data sources and methodologies are consistent between the 2014 and 2015 reports, and emissions estimates in this report supersede all previous Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update report values.

2028 Goal: 4.30 MMTCO2e

(50% below 1990 totals)

2030 Goal: 5.16 MMTCO2eNEG-ECP Regional / VT CEP


2012 Goal: 6.45 MMTCO2e(25% below 1990 totals)

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Vermont - Future Emissions Goals

Figure 1. Vermont Historic GHG Emissions Estimates and Future Emissions Reduction Goals

The only sector to show a decrease in emissions totals from 2014 to 2015 was the waste sector, however the emissions reductions in this sector were overcome by the emissions increases in the other six sectors. Although the emissions from several sectors are difficult to predict, due to winter heating needs and utility purchase decisions for electricity, the overall trend in the past several years has been a steady increase in total greenhouse gas emissions in the state. This report attempts to provide comprehensive and accurate greenhouse gas emissions totals for the State of Vermont from 1990 through 2015 (Table 1). The gases included in this inventory are based on those named by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Kyoto Protocol2 and include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) has also been included as it was added to the original list of six greenhouse gases previously specified in the Kyoto Protocol. The emissions estimates generated for this report were developed using methodologies consistent with the Final Vermont Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections, 1990‐20303 developed by the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS), the most current State Inventory Tool (SIT) modules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and methodologies developed by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources and the Vermont Department of Public Service, utilizing data available from a variety of in‐state and national sources including the Vermont Agency of Transportation, Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office (JFO), the Vermont Department of Public Service, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and others. Greenhouse gas emissions data have been calculated and are summarized by sector from 1990-2015 in the tables and graphs that follow.4

1 Vermont Statute 10 V.S.A. § 578: http://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/10/023/00578 2 Source: http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/3145.php

3 Source: http://dec.vermont.gov/air-quality/climate-change 4 Primary Authors: C. Smythe and J. Merrell, VT DEC – AQCD: [email protected] and [email protected]

http://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/10/023/00578

http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/3145.php

http://dec.vermont.gov/air-quality/climate-change

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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Table 1. Vermont Historic Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector5,6

1990 2000 2005 2013 2014 2015

Electricity Supply & Demand

(consumption based)1.09 0.43 0.64 0.81 0.84 1.00

Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 0.047 0.018 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.015

Oil 0.014 0.058 0.011 0.013 0.021 0.006

Wood (CH4 & N2O) 0.003 0.010 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.015

Residual System Mix 1.03 0.35 0.62 0.78 0.81 0.96

Residential / Commercial / Industrial

(RCI) Fuel Use2.41 2.86 2.98 2.46 2.60 2.78

Coal 0.017 0.003 0.000 0 0 0

Natural Gas 0.314 0.496 0.440 0.494 0.550 0.621

Oil, Propane & Other Petroleum 2.057 2.341 2.494 1.875 1.957 2.085

Wood (CH4 & N2O) 0.022 0.021 0.041 0.093 0.095 0.074

Transportation 3.38 4.15 4.49 3.88 4.10 4.33

Onroad Gasoline 2.64 3.20 3.29 2.73 3.03 3.16

Onroad Diesel 0.41 0.66 0.69 0.62 0.54 0.57

Jet Fuel & Aviation Gasoline 0.08 0.07 0.17 0.10 0.09 0.11

Rail / Ship / Boats / Other Nonroad 0.25 0.23 0.34 0.43 0.44 0.50

Fossil Fuel Industry 0.0077 0.0040 0.0039 0.0047 0.0048 0.0050

Natural Gas Distribution 0.0068 0.0030 0.0028 0.0036 0.0037 0.0039

Natural Gas Transmission 0.0009 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011

Industrial Processes 0.21 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.57 0.58

ODS Substitutes 0.00 0.17 0.21 0.31 0.32 0.33

Electric Utilities (SF6) 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Semiconductor Manufacturing (HFCs,

PFCs & SF6)7 0.16 0.37 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.21

Limestone & Dolomite Use 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03

Soda Ash Use 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004

Waste Management 0.27 0.36 0.34 0.22 0.21 0.17

Solid Waste 0.21 0.30 0.28 0.15 0.14 0.10

Wastewater 0.061 0.067 0.068 0.069 0.069 0.069

Agriculture 1.22 1.23 1.17 1.12 1.12 1.14

Enteric Fermentation 0.70 0.69 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.64

Manure Management 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.21

Agricultural Soils 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.29

TOTAL GROSS EMISSIONS 8.59 9.64 10.22 9.10 9.45 9.99

Change relative to 1990 (baseline) ▬ + 12% + 19% + 6% + 10% + 16%

SectorMillion Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent: MMTCO2e

7

5 Note: Grey text in the transportation sector indicates that the data was projected from EPA MOVES Model data produced for the

National Emissions Inventory for 2011 and 2014 – produced on a triennial basis. 6 Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. 7 Semiconductor data from 2011 – 2015 is from the EPA FLIGHT Tool, projected back to 1990 based on sector trends from the U.S.

Emissions Inventory “Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2014” and National SIT values.

https://ghgdata.epa.gov/ghgp/main.do

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-2016-main-text.pdf


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Vermont and the United States – Emissions Comparison

Although greenhouse gas emissions generated in Vermont make up an extremely small percentage of the U.S. total, approximately 0.1% historically, Vermont’s emissions have increased from 2011 through 2015 (Figure 2).

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Figure 2. Vermont and the U.S.8 – Historical Gross GHG Emissions Comparison (1990 – 2015).

8 U.S. data source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2015 (April 2017).

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-02/documents/2017_complete_report.pdf




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Vermont has a lower per capita CO2e emissions than the national average, however, the difference between the two has been decreasing (Figure 3).

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U.S. GHG per capita (MTCO₂e) VT GHG per capita (MTCO₂e)

Figure 3. VT & U.S. Gross GHG Emissions per Capita9,10,11 (1990 – 2014).

Economic growth in Vermont and the U.S. has increased from the 1990 baseline levels at a much faster rate than GHG emissions (Figure 4), indicating that over time each unit of goods and services produced has resulted in a smaller release of GHG emissions.

U.S. GHGs: +3.51%

U.S. GDP: +83.94%

VT GHGs: +16.25%

VT GDP: +51.89%

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U.S. and Vermont GHGs and GDP - Percent changes from 1990

U.S. Total GHG Emissions (% change from 1990) U.S. GDP - chained 2009 dollars (% change from 1990)

VT Total GHG Emissions (% change from 1990) VT GDP - chained 2009 dollars (% change from 1990)

Figure 4. VT & U.S. Percent Change GDP vs. Percent Change GHG Emissions 9,10,11 (1990 – 2014).

Figure shows percent changes in GHG emissions and GDP for VT and the U.S. from the baseline 1990 levels.

9 State and US Population Data: United States Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html) 10 Department of Commerce - U.S. Bureau of Economic Affairs – National GDP data (http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm) 11 Department of Commerce - U.S. Bureau of Economic Affairs – State GDP data (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm)

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html

http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm


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There are several sectors in VT which contribute significantly higher percentages and should be areas of focus for state mitigation efforts. These sectors include Transportation, Residential / Commercial fuel use, and Agriculture (Figure 5). It should be noted that the percentage contribution for transportation is somewhat inflated in Vermont due to the comparative lack of large GHG emissions point sources, including industrial manufacturing and electricity generation facilities.

Electric

Generation29.6%

Res/Com Fuel Use

10.4%

Industrial Fuel Use13.9%

Transportation

28.4%

Fossil Fuel Industry

3.1%Industrial

Processes4.4%

Waste2.3%

Agriculture

7.8%

2015 (U.S.)

Electric Generation

10.0%

Res/Com Fuel Use

23.9%

Industrial Fuel Use

3.9%Transportation

43.3%


0.05%

Industrial

Processes5.8%

Waste

1.7%

Agriculture

11.4%

2015 (VT)

Figure 5. Sector Emissions Contribution Percentages Comparison (2015) – U.S. and Vermont12

12 U.S. data source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2015 (redistributed to match VT sector categories).





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Vermont GHG Emissions – Sector Details

Statewide greenhouse gas emissions have remained relatively constant in Vermont historically, with some variation and fluctuation within sectors (Figure 6). Overall emissions are still below the peak levels in 2004, but annual emissions levels have generally been increasing since 2011, with an overall slight upward trend from the 1990 baseline.

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Vermont Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector (1990 - 2015)

Electricity Supply (Consumption) Residential/Commercial/Industrial Fuel UseTransportation Industrial Processes (ODS Subs., HFCs, SF6)Waste (Landfills, Wastewater) AgricultureFossil Fuel Industry (too small to be visible)

Figure 6. Historic Gross Vermont GHG Emissions.


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Figures 7 – 13 show the GHG emissions trends within individual sectors.

Transportation

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Figure 7. Vermont Transportation Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

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Residential/Commercial/Industrial Fuel Use

Figure 8. Vermont Residential/Commercial/Industrial Fuel Use Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

43.3%

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RCI - Fuel use


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Agriculture

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Figure 9. Vermont Agricultural Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

Electricity

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Electricity Generation

Figure 10. Vermont Electricity Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

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Industrial Processes

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Figure 11. Vermont Industrial Processes Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

Waste - Municipal Solid Waste & Wastewater

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Waste (Landfills, Wastewater)

Figure 12. Vermont Waste (Landfills & Wastewater) Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

5.8%


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Waste


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Figure 13. Vermont Fossil Fuel Industry Sector GHG Emissions (1990 – 2015).

< 0.1%



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Forestry & Land Use13

Forest carbon sequestration estimates (Figure 14) have been generated using data from the Inventory of U.S.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2015.14 Acres of forested land and aboveground forest biomass are shown in Figure 15 as indicators for carbon sequestration trends (as in inventories prior to the 2013 report). The estimates of carbon sequestration by forests in Vermont are included in this section, however these totals are not reflected in the values shown in Table 1.

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* Negative values represent carbon sequestration (as opposed to positive emissions).

Figure 14. Estimates of Carbon Sequestration by Forests and Urban Trees in Vermont.

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Figure 15. Forest Land and Aboveground Forest Biomass Estimates Using Previous Methodologies.

13 This section developed in collaboration with Sandy Wilmot (VT Dept. of Forests, Parks and Recreation - retired). 14 Forest Sequestration data source: Domke, G.M., Smith, J.E., Walters, B.F., Nichols, M., Coulston, J.W. In review. Forest land

category sections of the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry chapter, and Annex. In: US Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2015. EPA 430-R-17-XXX.


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Black Carbon (BC)

Black carbon (BC) estimates were shown in the 2014 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report 15 and were extracted as the elemental carbon (EC) fraction of PM2.5 emissions from the 2017 National Emissions Inventory version 2. Unfortunately, the NEI is only produced triennially, and Vermont does not have the necessary estimates of PM2.5 from all of the applicable sectors to generate BC estimates for years between NEI cycles. Black carbon totals will be included in future inventory reports that coincide with the release of NEI reports.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Vermont for 2015 show a continued rise from 2014 levels. State totals

are still below the 2004 peak level, however, the total estimated emissions for 2015 are approximately 16%

above the levels of the 1990 baseline, and the third highest in the current inventory record (only 2004 and 2005

were higher). Vermont’s greenhouse gas emissions remain at levels well above its reduction goals established in

state statute (10 V.S.A. § 578) and in the Comprehensive Energy Plan (Figure 16).16 Each successive year of

increasing emissions levels makes achieving the state’s emission reduction goals significantly more difficult.

Figure 16. GHG Emissions Trends and Goals for Vermont.

15 VT DEC Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report 1990-2014 16 VT Dept. of Public Service – Comprehensive Energy Plan 2016:

https://outside.vermont.gov/sov/webservices/Shared%20Documents/2016CEP_Final.pdf

2028 Goal: 4.30 MMTCO2E(50% below 1990 totals)

2030 Goal: 5.16 MMTCO2ENEG-ECP / VT CEP (40% below

1990 totals)

2050 Goal: 2.15MMTCO2E


2012 Goal: 6.45 MMTCO2E(25% below 1990 totals)

2050 Goal (high end): 1.72 MMTCO2E(80% below 1990 levels) - VT CEP 2016

2050 Goal: (low end): 0.43 MMTCO2E(95% below 1990 levels) - VT CEP 2016

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https://outside.vermont.gov/sov/webservices/Shared%20Documents/2016CEP_Final.pdf


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Biogenic CO2 Emissions & Forest Carbon Sequestration – Additional Information

Carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion or decomposition of biologically based materials (biogenic CO2) have not been included in the totals reported in this, or previous inventory reports (per IPCC guidelines). Calculations have been completed to estimate the at-the-stack biogenic CO2 emissions from the residential/commercial and industrial fuel use sector (RCI), as well as for the electricity generation sector. Estimates of biogenic CO2 from the waste and agricultural sectors have not been included in these estimates. Emissions totals in Table 1 of this report do not include carbon sequestration by forests or biogenic CO2 emissions. Several factors influenced this decision including the debate about the carbon neutrality of biogenic CO2, the complexity of quantifying carbon sequestration, and a desire to maintain consistency with previous reports. Figure 17 illustrates several scenarios relating to the inclusion of sequestration and biogenic CO2. The actual net emissions are likely in the range of the dashed black line, which includes biogenic CO2 emissions and carbon sequestration.

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Biogenic CO2 and Forest Carbon Sequestration Scenarios

CO₂ Emissions (Biogenic sources - wood combustion)

Total VT GHG Emissions (not including CO₂ emissions from wood combustion or forest carbon sequestration)

Net Carbon Sequestration by Forests

Total VT GHG Emissions (including CO₂ emissions from wood combustion & forest carbon sequestration)

Figure 17. Vermont GHG Emissions Scenarios – Biogenic CO2 and Forest Carbon Sequestration.

Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update 1990 - 2015 · Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

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