Going Up for the Rebound - sagepolicy.com · Going Up for the Rebound ... 20 Myanmar Southeast Asia...
-
Upload
nguyendien -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of Going Up for the Rebound - sagepolicy.com · Going Up for the Rebound ... 20 Myanmar Southeast Asia...
By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.
December 19, 2013
Going Up for the Rebound
On Behalf of
American Council of Engineering Companies
First Pitch
Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2013-2014 data are projections
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5.1% 4.7%
5.2% 5.3%
2.7%
-0.4%
5.2%
3.9%
3.2% 2.9%
3.6%
Ann
ual %
Cha
nge
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Es/mated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available na/ons)
Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region % 1 South Sudan Africa 24.7 169 Belgium Europe 0.1 2 Sierra Leone Africa 13.3 170 Denmark Europe 0.1 3 Turkmenistan Central Asia 12.2 171 Samoa Asia 0.1 4 Paraguay South America 12.0 172 Swaziland Africa 0.0 5 Mongolia Asia 11.8 173 Czech Republic Europe -0.4 6 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 8.3 174 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.6 7 Liberia Africa 8.1 175 Finland Europe -0.6 8 Timor-Leste Southeast Asia 8.1 176 Barbados Caribbean -0.8 9 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.0 177 Spain Europe -1.3
10 Ghana Africa 7.9 178 Netherlands Europe -1.3 11 China Asia 7.6 179 Equatorial Guinea Africa -1.5 12 Panama Central America 7.5 180 Islamic Republic of Iran Middle East -1.5 13 Rwanda Africa 7.5 181 Portugal Europe -1.8 14 Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia 7.4 182 Italy Europe -1.8 15 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Slovenia Eastern Europe -2.6 16 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.0 184 San Marino Europe -3.5 17 Ethiopia Africa 7.0 185 Greece Europe -4.2 18 Mozambique Africa 7.0 186 Libya Middle East -5.1 19 Tanzania Africa 7.0 187 Cyprus Europe -8.7 20 Myanmar Southeast Asia 6.8 188 Central African Republic Africa -14.5
*2013-2014 data are projections
Source: International Monetary Fund
EsAmated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected
1.2% 2.5% 2.7%
2.1% 3.8%
7.6% 6.3%
1.5% 2.3%
5.0% 4.5%
1.6% 1.6%
1.4% 2.0%
-1.3% -1.8%
0.5% 0.2%
-0.4% 1.2%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Mexico
Brazil Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa
India China
Developing Asia Russia
Central/eastern Europe Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging/developing countries United States
Canada United Kingdom
Japan Spain
Italy Germany
France Euro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
Source: International Monetary Fund
Debt by Selected Country 2012
0 50 100 150 200 250
Saudi Arabia Russia
Indonesia China
South Africa Mexico
Argentina India* Brazil
Germany Canada Spain
United Kingdom France
United States Italy
Japan*
General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP
*IMF Staff Projections
Source: International Monetary Fund
Rank Exchange Index % Change
4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 44.1% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 28.6% 1 Euronext CAC 40 20.9%
12 NYSE Group DJI A 17.4% 6 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 16.9% 8 Frankfurt SE DAX 15.8% 5 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 9.8% 3 London SE FTSE 100 8.9%
10 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 6.9% 9 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 5.4% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -0.3% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -0.3%
Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru 12/13/13
Source: Yahoo! Finance
S&P Select Sector Performance 12-‐Month Percent Change as of December 13th, 2013
Source: Standard & Poor’s
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
Information Technology
Energy
Consumer Staples
Materials
Industrials
Financials
Health Care
Consumer Discretionary
1.5%
6.3%
20.8%
16.8%
17.2%
21.1%
31.9%
31.9%
32.4%
37.4%
12-‐month percent change
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008 – December 2013
Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 index depicted in orange
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
May-‐08
Jul-‐08
Sep-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Jan-‐09
Mar-‐09
May-‐09
Jul-‐09
Sep-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Jan-‐10
Mar-‐10
May-‐10
Jul-‐10
Sep-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Jan-‐11
Mar-‐11
May-‐11
Jul-‐11
Sep-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Jan-‐12
Mar-‐12
May-‐12
Jul-‐12
Sep-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Jan-‐13
Mar-‐13
May-‐13
Jul-‐13
Sep-‐13
Nov
-‐13
S&P 500 FRB Credit Reserve $Trillions
Third Quarter Earnings for Select CorporaAons Earnings per Share
Symbol Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Estimated
Q3 2013 Reported Surprise Symbol Q3 2012 Q3 2013
Estimated Q3 2013
Reported Surprise
FCX $0.68 $0.62 $0.79 $0.17 UTX $1.37 $1.54 $1.55 $0.01 VFC $3.52 $3.78 $3.91 $0.13 XRX $0.25 $0.25 $0.26 $0.01 BTU $0.51 -‐$0.04 $0.05 $0.09 GE $0.36 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01 MSFT $0.60 $0.54 $0.62 $0.08 COH $0.77 $0.76 $0.77 $0.01 COF $2.01 $1.80 $1.86 $0.06 UPS $1.06 $1.15 $1.16 $0.01 DD $0.32 $0.41 $0.45 $0.04 MCD $1.43 $1.51 $1.52 $0.01 VZ $0.64 $0.74 $0.77 $0.03 HON $1.20 $1.24 $1.24 $0.00 MMM $1.65 $1.75 $1.78 $0.03 DOW $0.42 $0.54 $0.50 -‐$0.04 TXN $0.52 $0.53 $0.56 $0.03 CMG $2.27 $2.78 $2.66 -‐$0.12 AMD -‐$0.20 $0.02 $0.04 $0.02 CAT $2.54 $1.67 $1.45 -‐$0.22 YHOO $0.35 $0.33 $0.34 $0.01 STI $1.98 $0.69 $0.33 -‐$0.36
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch as of October 2013
Industrial ProducAon January 2001 through November 2013
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
80
85
90
95
100
105 Jan-‐01
May-‐01
Sep-‐01
Jan-‐02
May-‐02
Sep-‐02
Jan-‐03
May-‐03
Sep-‐03
Jan-‐04
May-‐04
Sep-‐04
Jan-‐05
May-‐05
Sep-‐05
Jan-‐06
May-‐06
Sep-‐06
Jan-‐07
May-‐07
Sep-‐07
Jan-‐08
May-‐08
Sep-‐08
Jan-‐09
May-‐09
Sep-‐09
Jan-‐10
May-‐10
Sep-‐10
Jan-‐11
May-‐11
Sep-‐11
Jan-‐12
May-‐12
Sep-‐12
Jan-‐13
May-‐13
Sep-‐13
Inde
x (200
7 = 100)
(Base year: 2007)
Gross DomesAc Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q3
-‐10%
-‐8%
-‐6%
-‐4%
-‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 1990
Q1
1990
Q3
1991Q1
1991Q3
1992
Q1
1992
Q3
1993
Q1
1993
Q3
1994
Q1
1994
Q3
1995
Q1
1995
Q3
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q
1 20
11Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
Per
cent
Cha
nge from
Pre
ceding
Per
iod (SAAR)
2013Q3: 3.6%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
ContribuAons to GDP Growth by Component Q3 2012 – Q3 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-‐1.5
-‐1.0
-‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Personal Consumption
Government Spending
Net Exports Gross Investment
1.2
0.7
0.0
1.0 1.1
-‐1.3
0.7
-‐0.4
1.5
-‐0.8
-‐0.3
0.7
1.2
-‐0.1 -‐0.1
1.4
0.96
0.09 0.07
2.49
SAAR (%
)
Q3-‐12 Q4-‐12 Q1-‐13 Q2-‐13 Q3-‐13
Red Card/ Pink Slip
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan-
02
Apr
-02
Jul-0
2 O
ct-0
2 Ja
n-03
A
pr-0
3 Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04
Apr
-04
Jul-0
4 O
ct-0
4 Ja
n-05
A
pr-0
5 Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6 O
ct-0
6 Ja
n-07
A
pr-0
7 Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Apr
-08
Jul-0
8 O
ct-0
8 Ja
n-09
A
pr-0
9 Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0 O
ct-1
0 Ja
n-11
A
pr-1
1 Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2 O
ct-1
2 Ja
n-13
A
pr-1
3 Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Thou
sand
s
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through November 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 2013: +203K
NaAonal Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector November 2012 v. November 2013
-22
-1
31
35
76
83
178
366
422
482
643
-‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Government
InformaBon
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Manufacturing
Financial AcBviBes
ConstrucBon
EducaBon and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, TransportaBon, and UBliBes
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,293 K Jobs gained
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-‐12,000
-‐10,000
-‐8,000
-‐6,000
-‐4,000
-‐2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Dec-‐07
Mar-‐08
Jun-‐08
Sep-‐08
Dec-‐08
Mar-‐09
Jun-‐09
Sep-‐09
Dec-‐09
Mar-‐10
Jun-‐10
Sep-‐10
Dec-‐10
Mar-‐11
Jun-‐11
Sep-‐11
Dec-‐11
Mar-‐12
Jun-‐12
Sep-‐12
Dec-‐12
Mar-‐13
Jun-‐13
Sep-‐13
Full-‐time
Part-‐time
CumulaAve Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-‐Ame v. Part-‐Ame December 2007 – November 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Full-‐time: -‐4.68 million Part-‐time: +2.71 million
Nov-‐13, +17
-‐200
-‐150
-‐100
-‐50
0
50
100
Feb-‐00
Jul-‐00
Dec-‐00
May-‐01
Oct-‐01
Mar-‐02
Aug
-‐02
Jan-‐03
Jun-‐03
Nov
-‐03
Apr-‐04
Sep-‐04
Feb-‐05
Jul-‐05
Dec-‐05
May-‐06
Oct-‐06
Mar-‐07
Aug
-‐07
Jan-‐08
Jun-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Apr-‐09
Sep-‐09
Feb-‐10
Jul-‐10
Dec-‐10
May-‐11
Oct-‐11
Mar-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Jan-‐13
Jun-‐13
Nov
-‐13
Mon
thly N
et Cha
nge (tho
usan
ds)
NaAonal ConstrucAon Employment Monthly Net Change February 2000 through November 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Industry Sector 13-‐Nov 13-‐Oct 12-‐Nov 1-‐net 12-‐net 12-‐% ConstrucBon 5851.0 5834.0 5673.0 17.0 178.0 3.1% ResidenBal Building 595.5 594.2 574.2 1.3 21.3 3.7% NonresidenBal Building 687.1 684.8 667.2 2.3 19.9 3.0% Heavy and Civil Engineering ConstrucBon 895.8 895.6 880.2 0.2 15.6 1.8% Specialty Trade Contractors 3672.1 3659.6 3551.4 12.5 120.7 3.4%
Architectural and Engineering Employment November 2003 – November 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-‐200
-‐150
-‐100
-‐50
0
50
100
Nov
-‐03
Feb-‐04
May-‐04
Aug
-‐04
Nov
-‐04
Feb-‐05
May-‐05
Aug
-‐05
Nov
-‐05
Feb-‐06
May-‐06
Aug
-‐06
Nov
-‐06
Feb-‐07
May-‐07
Aug
-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Feb-‐08
May-‐08
Aug
-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Feb-‐09
May-‐09
Aug
-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Feb-‐10
May-‐10
Aug
-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Feb-‐11
May-‐11
Aug
-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Feb-‐12
May-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Feb-‐13
May-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Nov
-‐13
12-‐M
onth
Net Cha
nge (in Th
ousa
nds)
Architectural Services Employment October 2003 – October 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-‐50
-‐40
-‐30
-‐20
-‐10
0
10
20
Oct-‐03
Jan-‐04
Apr-‐04
Jul-‐04
Oct-‐04
Jan-‐05
Apr-‐05
Jul-‐05
Oct-‐05
Jan-‐06
Apr-‐06
Jul-‐06
Oct-‐06
Jan-‐07
Apr-‐07
Jul-‐07
Oct-‐07
Jan-‐08
Apr-‐08
Jul-‐08
Oct-‐08
Jan-‐09
Apr-‐09
Jul-‐09
Oct-‐09
Jan-‐10
Apr-‐10
Jul-‐10
Oct-‐10
Jan-‐11
Apr-‐11
Jul-‐11
Oct-‐11
Jan-‐12
Apr-‐12
Jul-‐12
Oct-‐12
Jan-‐13
Apr-‐13
Jul-‐13
Oct-‐13
12-‐M
onth
Net Cha
nge (in Th
ousa
nds)
Engineering and Dra\ing Services Employment October 2003 – October 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-‐80
-‐60
-‐40
-‐20
0
20
40
60
80
Oct-‐03
Jan-‐04
Apr-‐04
Jul-‐04
Oct-‐04
Jan-‐05
Apr-‐05
Jul-‐05
Oct-‐05
Jan-‐06
Apr-‐06
Jul-‐06
Oct-‐06
Jan-‐07
Apr-‐07
Jul-‐07
Oct-‐07
Jan-‐08
Apr-‐08
Jul-‐08
Oct-‐08
Jan-‐09
Apr-‐09
Jul-‐09
Oct-‐09
Jan-‐10
Apr-‐10
Jul-‐10
Oct-‐10
Jan-‐11
Apr-‐11
Jul-‐11
Oct-‐11
Jan-‐12
Apr-‐12
Jul-‐12
Oct-‐12
Jan-‐13
Apr-‐13
Jul-‐13
Oct-‐13
12-‐M
onth
Net Cha
nge (in Th
ousa
nds)
State-‐by-‐state Growth in ConstrucAon Jobs October 2012 v. October 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.
STATE Year-over-year Ch.
(‘000) STATE
Year-over-year Ch.
(‘000) STATE
Year-over-year Ch.
(‘000) Florida 26.6 Iowa 2.4 New Hampshire 0.5 California 26.0 Nevada 2.2 New Mexico 0.5 Texas 14.5 North Dakota 2.2 Alaska 0.3 Louisiana 10.7 Pennsylvania 1.9 Arkansas 0.3 Mississippi 9.3 Kentucky 1.8 Kansas 0.1 Colorado 7.7 Wisconsin 1.8 South Dakota* -0.1 Georgia 7.6 Hawaii* 1.8 Nebraska* -0.4 Missouri 7.0 West Virginia 1.7 Delaware* -0.5 New York 6.7 Idaho 1.3 District of Columbia* -0.7 Massachusetts 6.3 Washington 1.1 Ohio -1.1 Connecticut 5.5 Maine 1.0 Tennessee* -1.5 New Jersey 4.9 Utah 1.0 Montana -1.7 South Carolina 4.9 Wyoming 0.9 Virginia -1.7 Oregon 4.4 Oklahoma 0.8 Alabama -2.2 Michigan 4.1 Rhode Island 0.8 North Carolina -3.6 Minnesota 3.6 Vermont 0.6 Illinois -4.5 Maryland* 2.9 Arizona 0.5 Indiana -11.8
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) October 2013 v. October 2012 Absolute Change
-2,100
-1,600
-1,200
-1,100
-600
-400
2,900
3,300
10,800
11,900
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Information
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
MD Total: +21.9K; +0.8%
US Total (SA): +2,337K; +1.7%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 16,489 jobs between October 2012 and October 2013.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-5,600
-3,000
-1,400
-500
-200
1,300
5,600
6,400
6,600
10,300
-‐8,000 -‐6,000 -‐4,000 -‐2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Government
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
InformaBon
Other Services
Financial AcBviBes
Mining, Logging, and ConstrucBon
Professional and Business Services
Trade, TransportaBon, and UBliBes
EducaBon and Health Services
BalAmore-‐Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2013 v. October 2012 Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total: +19.5K; +1.5%
MD Total (SA): +21.9K; +1.7%
US Total (SA): +2,337K; +1.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington, DC-‐Arlington-‐Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2013 v. October 2012 Absolute Change
-2,500
-2,400
-1,700
-1,500
-800
-700
3,100
5,100
6,600
15,500
-6,000 -1,000 4,000 9,000 14,000 19,000
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Professional and Business Services
Government
Information
Other Services
Manufacturing
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
DC MSA Total: +20.7K; +0.7%
US Total (SA): +2,337K; +1.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-‐over-‐year Percent Change: 1.7%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) October 2012 v. October 2013 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NORTH DAKOTA 3.5 17 MASSACHUSETTS 1.6 34 VERMONT 0.9
2 FLORIDA 2.5 17 WASHINGTON 1.6 36 ARKANSAS 0.8
3 IDAHO 2.4 20 INDIANA 1.5 36 MARYLAND 0.8 3 TEXAS 2.4 20 WISCONSIN 1.5 36 WYOMING 0.8
5 GEORGIA 2.2 22 CALIFORNIA 1.4 39 MONTANA 0.7
5 UTAH 2.2 22 NEW JERSEY 1.4 39 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.7
7 DELAWARE 2.1 24 KANSAS 1.3 39 VIRGINIA 0.7
8 COLORADO 2.0 25 MISSOURI 1.2 42 CONNECTICUT 0.6
8 NORTH CAROLINA 2.0 25 NEBRASKA 1.2 42 MAINE 0.6
10 ARIZONA 1.8 25 RHODE ISLAND 1.2 44 IOWA 0.5
10 MICHIGAN 1.8 25 TENNESSEE 1.2 44 OHIO 0.5
10 MINNESOTA 1.8 29 HAWAII 1.1 44 PENNSYLVANIA 0.5
10 NEVADA 1.8 29 NEW YORK 1.1 47 NEW MEXICO 0.2
10 OREGON 1.8 29 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.1 48 KENTUCKY 0.1
10 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.8 29 WEST VIRGINIA 1.1 49 ALABAMA 0.0
16 MISSISSIPPI 1.7 33 ILLINOIS 1.0 50 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA -0.1
17 LOUISIANA 1.6 34 OKLAHOMA 0.9 51 ALASKA -0.9
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.3%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) October 2013
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.7 18 ALASKA 6.5 35 SOUTH CAROLINA 7.5
2 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.7 19 LOUISIANA 6.5 35 NEW YORK 7.7
3 NEBRASKA 3.9 20 MISSOURI 6.5 35 OREGON 7.7
4 HAWAII 4.4 20 WISCONSIN 6.5 35 CONNECTICUT 7.9
5 VERMONT 4.5 22 NEW MEXICO 6.6 39 NORTH CAROLINA 8.0
6 IOWA 4.6 22 FLORIDA 6.7 40 GEORGIA 8.1
6 UTAH 4.6 22 IDAHO 6.7 41 ARIZONA 8.2
6 WYOMING 4.6 22 MAINE 6.7 41 KENTUCKY 8.4
9 MINNESOTA 4.8 22 MARYLAND 6.7 41 NEW JERSEY 8.4
10 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.1 22 COLORADO 6.8 44 TENNESSEE 8.4
11 MONTANA 5.2 28 DELAWARE 6.8 44 MISSISSIPPI 8.5
12 OKLAHOMA 5.5 28 WASHINGTON 7.0 44 CALIFORNIA 8.7
13 KANSAS 5.6 30 MASSACHUSETTS 7.2 47 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 8.9
13 VIRGINIA 5.6 30 ARKANSAS 7.5 48 ILLINOIS 8.9
15 TEXAS 6.2 32 INDIANA 7.5 49 MICHIGAN 9.0
15 WEST VIRGINIA 6.2 33 OHIO 7.5 50 RHODE ISLAND 9.2
17 ALABAMA 6.5 34 PENNSYLVANIA 7.5 51 NEVADA 9.3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) October 2013
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 11
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.9
2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 12
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0
2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 12
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0
2 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 14
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.6
5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0 15
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.7
6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 16
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.8
7 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 6.3 17
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.3
8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4 18
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.6
9 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 19 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.0
10 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MD County Unemployment Rates October 2013
Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR
1 Queen Anne's County 5.3 13 Charles County 6.5 1 Carroll County 5.3 14 Baltimore County 6.9 1 Montgomery County 5.3 15 Cecil County 7.1 4 Howard County 5.4 16 Caroline County 7.3 5 Calvert County 5.7 16 Allegany County 7.3 5 Frederick County 5.7 18 Prince George's County 7.6 7 St. Mary's County 5.9 19 Wicomico County 7.8 8 Garrett County 6.1 20 Washington County 7.9 9 Anne Arundel County 6.2 21 Dorchester County 9.2 9 Harford County 6.2 22 Somorset County 9.6 11 Talbot County 6.3 23 Baltimore City 9.7 12 Kent County 6.4 24 Worcester County 9.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates Among Select Demographic Groups, Workers Ages 20+, September 2003 & 2013
4.3 4.2
5.8 6.6
8.1 8.5
5.5 5.7
7.4 8.1
10.5
13.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
White Women White Men Hispanic/Latino Men
Hispanic/Latino Women
Black/African American Women
Black/African American Men
Sep-‐03 Sep-‐13
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; CPS
Pad Save
15-‐Year & 30-‐Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through December 2013
Source: Freddie Mac
3.43%
4.42%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Feb-
95
Nov
-95
Aug
-96
May
-97
Feb-
98
Nov
-98
Aug
-99
May
-00
Feb-
01
Nov
-01
Aug
-02
May
-03
Feb-
04
Nov
-04
Aug
-05
May
-06
Feb-
07
Nov
-07
Aug
-08
May
-09
Feb-
10
Nov
-10
Aug
-11
May
-12
Feb-
13
Nov
-13
Rat
e
15-yr 30-yr
U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through October 2013
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau
October 2013 444K
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Thou
sand
s, SAAR
U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through November 2013
Source: Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 Fe
b-‐99
May-‐99
Aug
-‐99
Nov
-‐99
Feb-‐00
May-‐00
Aug
-‐00
Nov
-‐00
Feb-‐01
May-‐01
Aug
-‐01
Nov
-‐01
Feb-‐02
May-‐02
Aug
-‐02
Nov
-‐02
Feb-‐03
May-‐03
Aug
-‐03
Nov
-‐03
Feb-‐04
May-‐04
Aug
-‐04
Nov
-‐04
Feb-‐05
May-‐05
Aug
-‐05
Nov
-‐05
Feb-‐06
May-‐06
Aug
-‐06
Nov
-‐06
Feb-‐07
May-‐07
Aug
-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Feb-‐08
May-‐08
Aug
-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Feb-‐09
May-‐09
Aug
-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Feb-‐10
May-‐10
Aug
-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Feb-‐11
May-‐11
Aug
-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Feb-‐12
May-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Feb-‐13
May-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Nov
-‐13
Thou
sand
s, SAAR
1 Unit 5 units or more
U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through November 2013
Source: Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 Fe
b-‐99
May-‐99
Aug
-‐99
Nov
-‐99
Feb-‐00
May-‐00
Aug
-‐00
Nov
-‐00
Feb-‐01
May-‐01
Aug
-‐01
Nov
-‐01
Feb-‐02
May-‐02
Aug
-‐02
Nov
-‐02
Feb-‐03
May-‐03
Aug
-‐03
Nov
-‐03
Feb-‐04
May-‐04
Aug
-‐04
Nov
-‐04
Feb-‐05
May-‐05
Aug
-‐05
Nov
-‐05
Feb-‐06
May-‐06
Aug
-‐06
Nov
-‐06
Feb-‐07
May-‐07
Aug
-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Feb-‐08
May-‐08
Aug
-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Feb-‐09
May-‐09
Aug
-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Feb-‐10
May-‐10
Aug
-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Feb-‐11
May-‐11
Aug
-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Feb-‐12
May-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Feb-‐13
May-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Nov
-‐13
Thou
sand
s, SAAR
1 Unit 5 units or more
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
4.3%
7.0% 7.5% 9.1% 9.7% 9.9%
13.3% 14.3%
17.2% 18.7%
21.8%
25.7%
29.1%
12-‐M
onth %
Cha
nge
S&P/Case-‐Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros September 2013, 12-‐Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Source: The American Institute of Architects
Architecture Billings Index December 2007 through October 2013
30
35
40
45
50
55
60 October. 2013: 51.6
NonresidenAal ConstrucAon Put-‐in-‐Place October 2006 through October 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Oct-‐06
Dec-‐06
Feb-‐07
Apr-‐07
Jun-‐07
Aug-‐07
Oct-‐07
Dec-‐07
Feb-‐08
Apr-‐08
Jun-‐08
Aug-‐08
Oct-‐08
Dec-‐08
Feb-‐09
Apr-‐09
Jun-‐09
Aug-‐09
Oct-‐09
Dec-‐09
Feb-‐10
Apr-‐10
Jun-‐10
Aug-‐10
Oct-‐10
Dec-‐10
Feb-‐11
Apr-‐11
Jun-‐11
Aug-‐11
Oct-‐11
Dec-‐11
Feb-‐12
Apr-‐12
Jun-‐12
Aug-‐12
Oct-‐12
Dec-‐12
Feb-‐13
Apr-‐13
Jun-‐13
Aug-‐13
Oct-‐13
SAA
R ($billion
s)
Public
Private
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Oct. 08: $719.0 billion Oct. 13: $575.6 billion
-‐20%
NaAonal NonresidenAal ConstrucAon Spending by Subsector October 2012 v. October 2013
-‐16.1 -‐15.1
-‐12.6 -‐7.2
-‐2.7 -‐2.4
-‐1.2 -‐1.0 -‐0.6
3.2 4.4 4.5
5.8 9.3
14.3 17.5
-‐20 -‐15 -‐10 -‐5 0 5 10 15 20
CommunicaBon Power
Religious ConservaBon and development
Office EducaBonal Public safety
Amusement and recreaBon Health care
Manufacturing Commercial
Sewage and waste disposal TransportaBon
Highway and street Water supply
Lodging
12-‐month % Change
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Inputs to ConstrucAon PPI January 2001 – November 2013
-‐10%
-‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-‐01
Apr-‐01
Jul-‐01
Oct-‐01
Jan-‐02
Apr-‐02
Jul-‐02
Oct-‐02
Jan-‐03
Apr-‐03
Jul-‐03
Oct-‐03
Jan-‐04
Apr-‐04
Jul-‐04
Oct-‐04
Jan-‐05
Apr-‐05
Jul-‐05
Oct-‐05
Jan-‐06
Apr-‐06
Jul-‐06
Oct-‐06
Jan-‐07
Apr-‐07
Jul-‐07
Oct-‐07
Jan-‐08
Apr-‐08
Jul-‐08
Oct-‐08
Jan-‐09
Apr-‐09
Jul-‐09
Oct-‐09
Jan-‐10
Apr-‐10
Jul-‐10
Oct-‐10
Jan-‐11
Apr-‐11
Jul-‐11
Oct-‐11
Jan-‐12
Apr-‐12
Jul-‐12
Oct-‐12
Jan-‐13
Apr-‐13
Jul-‐13
Oct-‐13
12-‐m
onth
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Key Commodity Prices January 2001 – October 2013
Source: BLS: EIA
-40 -30 -20 -10
0 10 20 30 40 50
Jan-
01
Oct
-01
Jul-0
2
Apr
-03
Jan-
04
Oct
-04
Jul-0
5
Apr
-06
Jan-
07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr
-09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr
-12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
12-m
onth
% C
hang
e
Iron & Steel PPI
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
10 12
Jan-
01
Oct
-01
Jul-0
2
Apr
-03
Jan-
04
Oct
-04
Jul-0
5
Apr
-06
Jan-
07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr
-09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr
-12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
12-m
onth
% C
hang
e
Concrete Products PPI
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-
01
Oct
-01
Jul-0
2
Apr
-03
Jan-
04
Oct
-04
Jul-0
5
Apr
-06
Jan-
07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr
-09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr
-12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
12-m
onth
% C
hang
e
Softwood Lumber PPI
-60 -40 -20
0 20 40 60 80
100
Jan-
01
Oct
-01
Jul-0
2
Apr
-03
Jan-
04
Oct
-04
Jul-0
5
Apr
-06
Jan-
07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr
-09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr
-12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
12-m
onth
% C
hang
e
NYMEX Crude Oil
ConstrucAon Materials PPI 12-‐month % Change as of November 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-‐11% -‐6% -‐1% 4% 9% 14%
Nonferrous metals
Asphalt felts and coatings
Iron and steel
Fabricated structural metal products
Glass
Clay construction products ex. refractories
Concrete products
Plywood
Prefabricated wood structural members
Softwood lumber
Gypsum products
-‐6.0%
-‐1.2%
-‐0.1%
0.3%
1.1%
2.5%
2.7%
3.1%
8.1%
12.8%
13.7%
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through October 2013
Source: Conference Board
-‐1.5%
-‐1.0%
-‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Aug
-‐07
Oct-‐07
Dec-‐07
Feb-‐08
Apr-‐08
Jun-‐08
Aug
-‐08
Oct-‐08
Dec-‐08
Feb-‐09
Apr-‐09
Jun-‐09
Aug
-‐09
Oct-‐09
Dec-‐09
Feb-‐10
Apr-‐10
Jun-‐10
Aug
-‐10
Oct-‐10
Dec-‐10
Feb-‐11
Apr-‐11
Jun-‐11
Aug
-‐11
Oct-‐11
Dec-‐11
Feb-‐12
Apr-‐12
Jun-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Oct-‐12
Dec-‐12
Feb-‐13
Apr-‐13
Jun-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Oct-‐13
One
-‐mon
th Per
cent
Cha
nge
October 2013 = 97.5 where 2004=100
Final, Period.
• As predicted, first half of year was quite soft in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make their mark;
• Second half of year should have been better, with growth headed above 2 percent– will end up around 2 percent after revisions;
• Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter;
• Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Maryland has held its own to date, but there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey – one of them is probably wrong; and
• We are an increasingly part-‐time nation – that looks like a problem.
Thank You � Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup � You can always reach me at [email protected]
� Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com.
� Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)
� Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.