Global warming, basics and measures

7/28/2019 Global warming, basics and measures

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Climate Change

Teaching Unit: Scientific Basics of Climate Change

http://www.seso

lar.ch/energie.jpg

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 1


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Structure of the Teaching Unit: Engineering, Innovation

Climate Change Possibilities to Tackle Climate Change

with Technological and Economical Means

Lecture 1: Global warming, basics and measures, IPCC

Lecture 2: Latest Measures, Emissions by Sectors

Lecture 3: UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

Lecture 4: Greenhouse gas inventoryLecture 5: Direct and indirect land use change (dLUC/iLUC)

Lecture 6: Rainforest: Climate Impact and protection REDD

Lecture 7: The EU Biomass regulations

Lecture 8: Relevant renewable technologies

Lecture 9: Geo engineering and Adaptation Strategies

Lecture 10: Current Indonesian Greenhouse Gas Inventory


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Structure of Lecture 1

1.1 Scientific basics of global warming and climate change

1.2 Greenhouse gases and warming potentials

1.3 The 2 target, tipping points

1.4 IPCC, structure and reports

"Engineering, Innovation ClimateChange Possibilities to Tackle

Climate Change with Technologicaland Economical Means"



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1.1 Climate protection a global challenge

Indonesia/Sumatra

AustriaAfrica

Arctic



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1.1 Impacts of climate change



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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect Basics


http://www.co2crc.com.au/images/imagelibrary/gen_diag/greenhouseeffect_media.jpg


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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect - Radiation


http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/spectrum.jpg

On the earths surface ultraviolet radiation is converted in Infrared(heat) radiation


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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect

http://www.grida.no/_res/site/Image/series/vg-africa

/graphics/10-threefactors.jpgThe greenhouse effect isabsolutely necessary for life

on Earth. The average

temperature at the surface of

the earth is plus 15 C,

without the natural

greenhouse effect, it wouldbe minus 18 C. In the

Earth's atmosphere

greenhouse gases like water

vapor, carbon dioxide and

methane are responsible for

the greenhouse effect sincethe origin of Earth, having a

decisive influence on the

climate history of the past

and the present climate.



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1.1.3 Planets and their Atmospheres



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1.3.3 Land areas warm more than the oceans

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_WatsonSpeech: Fig 13; Urquelle: IPCCC2001_TAR1 Fig.9.10d, p.547 (vereinfacht)Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 10


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1.1.4 Summary Green House Effect



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1.1.5 Annual & global mean energy balance

www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-r

eport/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf

Estimate of the Earths annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation

absorbed by the Earth and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing

longwave radiation. About half of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Earths surface. This energy is transferred to

the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspiration and by longwave radiation

that is absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gases. The atmosphere in turn radiates longwave energy back to Earth as well as

out to space. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).



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1.1.5 Energy Balance Board Picture (Summary)



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1.2 Greenhouse Gases


Source: http://www2.cplan.org.uk/

Carbon dioxide: It is responsible for 63% of man-made global warming. One of the main sources of

CO2 in the atmosphere is the combustion of fossil

fuels - coal, oil and gas.

Nitrous oxide: Nitrous oxide is responsible for

6% of man-made global warming. Emission

sources include nitrogen fertilizers, the

combustion of fossil fuels and some industrial

processes, including nylon production.

Methane: Methane, the next most common

greenhouse gas after CO2, is responsible for19% of global warming from human activities.

One reason behind rising methane emissions is

the expansion of livestock farming due to the

growing consumption of meat and dairy

products.


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1.2 Greenhouse Gases and warming potencial


The relevant Unit is the

so-called radiative forcing

in Watts per square

meter (W/m2). The unit

indicates how much the

radiation household is

changing by a specific

gas.

The current

anthropogenic

greenhouse gases cause

a disturbance of the

radiation household of

2.7 Watt/m (with an

uncertainty of +/-15%).

60% goes to the account

of CO2, 40% are caused

by other gases.


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1.2.1 Radiation transmitted by the Atmosphere The figure shows the major absorbing (and

scattering, other than aerosols) constituents

of the atmosphere for shortwave and

longwave wavelengths and their impact on

atmospheric transmission.

Obviously the atmospheric transmission

depends on the concentrations of these

constituents, but the figures given might be

taken as typical. In the Ultraviolet, Ozone is

primarily responsible for solar radiation

absorption. At visible wavelengths, the main

factors are Rayleigh scattering and aerosols.

At thermal wavelengths, water vapour and

CO2 are the most important constituents.

Clouds also affect atmospheric transmission.

Low, thick cloud primarily reflect shortwave

radiation, whereas high thin clouds allow

most shortwave radiation through but absorb

longwave radiation.

Aerosols have a range of complicated

effects on radiation. Whilst many aerosols

such as sulfates and nitrates reflect most

shortwave radiation, black carbon absorbs

most of it. Another important role of aerosolsis to act as cloud condensation nuclei which

enable water vapour in the atmosphere to

condense and coalesce. Interesting biogenic

sources include volatile organic compounds

(VOCs) and other materials emitted from

forests (Spracklen et al., 2008) and volatile

sulphur compounds emitted both by

terrestrial and marine biota.

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 16 http://www2.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~plewis/geogg124/carbonCycle.html


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1.2.2 Cooling Factors in Climate System



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1.2.3 Albedo

The albedo of an object is a measure of how

strongly it reflects light from light sources such asthe Sun. It is therefore a more specific form of the

term reflectivity. Albedo is defined as the ratio of

total-reflected to incident electromagnetic radiation.

It is a unitless measure indicative of a surface's or

body's diffuse reflectivity. The word is derived from

Latin albedo "whiteness", in turn from albus "white",

and was introduced into optics by Johann Heinrich

Lambert in his 1760 work Photometria. The range of

possible values is from 0 (dark) to 1 (bright).

Fresh asphalt 0.04Worn asphalt 0.12

Conifer forest(Summer) 0.08 to 0.15Deciduous trees 0.15 to 0.18Bare soil 0.17Green grass 0.25Desert sand 0.40New concrete 0.55Ocean Ice 0.50.7Fresh snow 0.800.90Clouds 0.1 - 0,8



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1.2.4 Integrated RF over two time horizons

www.ipcc.c

h/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.p

df

Figure Integrated RF of year 2000 emissions over

two time horizons (20 and 100 years). The figure

gives an indication of the future climate impact of

current emissions. The values for aerosols and

aerosol precursors are essentially equal for the

two time horizons. It should be noted that the RFs

of short-lived gases and aerosol depend critically

on both when and where they are emitted; the

values given in the figure apply only to total globalannual emissions. For organic carbon and Black

carbon (BC), both fossil fuel (FF) and biomass

burning emissions are included. The uncertainty

estimates are based on the uncertainties in

emission sources, lifetime and radiative efficiency

estimates.

Climate or radiative forcing is a way to

measure how substances such asgreenhouse gases affect the amount of

energy that is absorbed by the atmosphere.

An increase in radiative forcing leads to

warming while a decrease in forcing

produces cooling.



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1.2.5 The present Carbon Cycle



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1.2.5 Carbon Cycle in managed ecosystems


Source: The main greenhouse gas emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC

Volume 4 Chapter. 1 Introduction HWP=Harvested wood products).


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1.2.5 The present Carbon Cycle



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1.2.6 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration


Objected rise of global CO2 concentration is caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.


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1.2.6 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2

http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/60/104260-004-139F9FCD.gif

Shift in atmospheric concentrationof CO2 within the last about 150

years from 280 to 380 ppm

(Keeling Curve)

Main cause: increasing burning of

fossile carbon material like oil, coal

and natural gas Other non-anthropogenic causes

like overexploitation of forests

(especially rain forests) and

increase in animal factory farming

because of growing consumption

of meat Other non-anthropogenic causes

like natural variations in solar

activity

The Keeling Curve, named after American climate scientist

Charles David Keeling, tracks changes in the concentration of

carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earths atmosphere at a research

station on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Although these concentrations

experience small seasonal fluctuations, the overall trend shows

that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere.



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1.2.6 Global temperature change in detailGlobal temperature change according to the three major compilations based on measured

surface temperatures: GISS, HadCRU and NCDC. They are expressed as the temperaturedifference (anomaly) with respect to the 1901-2000 average as the baseline.http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-temperature-increase-giss-hadcru-and-ncdc-compared/

GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

HadCRUT3: Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

NCDC: National Climatic Data Center (US) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html



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1.2.7 CO2 Emissions from industrial prozesses



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1.2.8 Correlation between GHG Emissions and

Prosperity



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1.3 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling

The drill head (on the left) cutsaway a ring of ice approx. 2 cm

wide with an inner diameter of 98

mm. The ice core slides into the

inner core barrel (with the spirals),

while the chips move up between

the inner core barrel and the outer

barrel. The brass section is the

pump, which pumps drill liquid with

chips into the chips chamber, where

the chips are retained before the

drilling liquid is recycled through thehollow shaft. In reality, both the

inner core barrel and the chip

chamber are about 4 meters long,

but they have been shortened here

for clarity.Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 28

Source: http://neem.dk/about_neem/drillingicecores/


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Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/


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Source: bbc


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1.3.1 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling


Source: http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6a.html

19 cm long section of Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core from 1855 meters showing annual

layer structure illuminated from below by a fiber optic source. Section contains 11 annual layers with

summer layers (arrowed) sandwiched between darker winter layers. Image source: Wikimedia

Commons. => Layer structure depends on the former temperature


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1.3.2 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling


Source: http://www.awi.de/de/forschung/fachbereiche/geowissenschaften/glaziologie/palaeoclimate/gases_in_ice_cores/

Bubble enclosures in polar ice cores. The

investigation of this gas by careful extraction andhigh precision analysis allows to reconstruct

atmospheric trace gas concentrations over the last

approximately 500,000 years.Gas extraction from ice cores


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1.3.3 Correlation of Temperature and CO2

Emission



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1.3.3 Fluctuation of Climate in the Past

Rahmstorf, S., Timing of abrupt climate change: a precise clock, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1510, 2003

Dansgaard-Oeschger events are rapid climate fluctuations. They occurred 25

times during the last glacial period.

The course of a D-O event sees a rapid warming of temperature, followed by a

cool period lasting a few hundred years. This cold period sees an expansion of

the polar front, with ice floating further south across the North Atlantic ocean.

The processes behind are still unclear.

Some scientists claim that the events occur quasi-periodically with a

recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, but this is debated.



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Source: Copenhagen Diagnoses 2008. www.copenhagendiagnoses.com

1.3.4 Northern Hemisphere reconstructed

temperature change since 200 AD



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1.3.5 Atmospheric concentrations of LLGHGs

www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

Figure: Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHG) over the last 2,000

years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are

parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per

million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample.



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1.3.6 Climate change in the Past

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/global-jan-dec-error-bar.gif



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Source: Eckhard Rebhan (Univ. Dsseldorf)

Since 1850 in atmosphere concentration of methane doubled, of CO2 increased by 30 %

Temperature and CO2 concentration correlate.


1.3.7 CO2 Concentration and Temperature Summary


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1.3.8 Past Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations and

Future Projections


Structure of CO2


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1.4 The two-degree target some basics Global mean temperature increases of up to 2C (relative to pre-industrial levels) are

likely to allow adaptation to climate change for many human systems at globallyacceptable economic, social and environmental costs. However, the ability of many

natural ecosystems to adapt to rapid climate change is limited and may be exceeded

before a 2C temperature increase is reached.

A global mean temperature increase greater than 2C will result in increasingly costly

adaptation and considerable impacts that exceed the adaptive capacity of many

systems and an increasing and unacceptably high risk of large scale irreversible

effects. In order to have a 50% chance of keeping the global mean temperature rise below 2C

relative to pre-industrial levels, atmospheric GHG concentrations must stabilise below

450ppm CO2 equivalence. Stabilisation below 400 ppm will increase the probability to

roughly 66% to 90%.

Current atmospheric GHG concentrations and trends in GHG emissions mean that

these concentration levels may be exceeded. The 2C target can still be achieved if thisovershoot of concentrations is only temporary and reversed quickly. Thus, to avoid a

warming in excess of 2C, global GHG emissions should peak by 2020 at the latest and

then be more than halved by 2050 relative to 1990.

Deep emission reductions can be achieved by employing a broad range of

currently available technologies and technologies that are expected to be

commercialised in coming decades.



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Figure : Tipping-points in the climate system

1.4.1 Tipping-points in the Climate System


A climate tipping point is a

concept, of a point when global

climate changes from one

stable state to another stable

state, in a similar manner to a

wine glass tipping over. Afterthe tipping point has been

passed, a transition to a new

state occurs. The tipping event

may be irreversible,

comparable to wine spilling

from the glass: standing up theglass will not put the wine back.

Source: Wikipedia

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PN

AS_

2008.pdf


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Figure : Major tipping-points in the climate system

1.4.2 Major tipping-points in the Climate System


http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PN

AS_

2008.pdf


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1.4.2 Major tipping-points in the Climate System


Policy-relevant potential future tipping elements in the climate system (PIK)http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PN

AS_

2008.pdf


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1.4.3 The two-degree target some basics

http://ec.europa.e

u/environment/climat/pdf/bro

chure_

2c.pdf

Projections of global mean surface temperatures for three SRES non-mitigation scenarios as

presented by IPCC AR4 and the Year 2000 constant concentration experiment. Without

mitigation of emissions, the 2C target (red dashed line) will be exceeded towards the middle ofthe century. Likely ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for the six SRES marker scenarios

are shown on the right. Source: Adapted from IPCC AR4 WGI, SPM-5.

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 44 SRES: IPC Scenarios from 2000


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Exercise

http://serc.ca

rleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6b.html

Ice cores have been taken from many locations around the world, primarily in

Greenland and Antarctica. One of the deepest cores ever drilled was at the

Vostok station in Antarctica, which includes ice from as far back as over600,000 years ago.

Examine the plot below of Vostok ice core data. NOTE: in the plot, ppm stands

for parts per million.

Based on the Vostok ice core data plot above, how would you describe the

relationship between temperature (red line) and atmospheric CO2

concentration (blue line)? Explain why you think this relationship exists.

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