Global Environment Post-bipolarity, one superpower emerged: The USA

No balance in system anymore

Redefining NATO

Emerging supranational entity of the EU

A new “enemy” – false notion of “clash of civilisations”

Role of Non-State actors increasingly important.

Post-9/11 these trends further intensified

Terrorism became one of two central points of

Global politics

The other central point was AC & D, with a

focus on nuclear proliferation – but a shift in the

nuance

Role of NSAs gained more prominence

asymmetric warfare

Targeting of Muslim states – GMEI & BMEI – and Islam in guise of “freedom of speech”

Undermining of UN collective security system with creation of Coalitions of the Willing –

US and its Core States framework

US NSSP in which preemption is the key at Political, Military and Economic Levels

So now two contrary pulls on global system:

one is the US-centric pull and the other is the economic interdependence of global economy PLUS emerging principles like Right to Humanitarian Intervention & the ICC

GENESIS OF TERRORISM

Separating pathological violence from terrorism which has a political dimension

Difficult to define terrorism but increasingly a consensus has evolved whereby targeting of civilians regardless of political aspects involved is regarded as terrorism

One basic definition of terrorism:

“terrorism involves the use of violence or the threat of violence by the perpetrators against an instrumental target in order to communicate to a primary target a threat of future violence”.

3 dimensions

the act or threat of violence; the emotional reaction; the social effects.

3 actors involved:

the perpetrator of the violence – the victim and the target.

But two other issues remain:

One: principle of self determination as inscribed in UN Charter

Two: state terrorism

3 types of terrorism can be identified:

One: International terrorism

Two: local, sub national armed groups using violence and terror tactics

Three: State terrorism

Causes of Terrorism

Terrorism is to a large extent a symptom of deep seated political and economic problems, unresolved conflicts

Framing the issue in religious terms at the global level has also indirectly led to a rise in extremist mindset

Globalisation itself has created violent reactions

Economic globalisaton

Cultural globalisation

Political globalisation

And just as mainstream international system has become more globalised so has terrorism

Notion of “netwar” used by Bruce Hoffman

Combating Terrorism in Pakistan: Combating Terrorism in Pakistan: Nature of the threat and strategic Nature of the threat and strategic

planning at national levelplanning at national level

Operational environment:

The security situation in Pakistan has and continues to be a major source of concern. Pakistan has suffered on all fronts, politically, socially, economically.

The GWOT has had tremendous economic costs - Loss of markets and the increase in price of exports due to rising costs of insurance etc.- Travel advisories have undermined FDI and tourism

-The overall distrust in the US of Muslims; most US firms and businesses treated Pakistanis with distrust if not with contempt.

- Other costs included internally the increasing targeted killings of the military & security forces; continuing socio-economic damage through the continuing presence of Afghan refugees;

- Resurgence of the weapons and drug fallout

One can identify two main strands of terrorism that have their origins in Pakistan, but which also have linkages externally.

a) sub-nationalistsConfined largely to BalochistanThe present violence began in 2003-2004 and the main organisations are the BLA and the BSO – although now there is also the BRA (Baloch Republican Army).

Targeting has focused on vital installations, LEAs (law enforcement agencies) and military installations and personnel, Non-Balochis and foreigners employed in Gwadar.

- Primarily, these terrorists use IEDs, targeted kidnappings and rockets. The funding for these groups comes primarily from abroad which is why the GoP feels they have evidence to connect India to some of the acts of terror. Also, with the US attempting to destabilise Iranian Balochistan covertly, some funding may be coming in from US sources also.

b) Religious extremists of two types

Sectarian – The targets were in the main sectarian leaders as well as known professionals/bureaucrats and police officers belonging to the rival sectarian groups. Sectarian terrorism was less sensitive to collateral damage in terms of indiscriminate killing of the rival sect. Primarily, these terrorists used IEDs, hit and run tactics as well as suicide bombings. Weapons and explosives tended to and still come from Afghanistan and the tribal areas.

Political – which started primarily around 2002, in the wake of the fall of the Taliban and was a new dimension of religious terrorism in Pakistan. Amongst this group of terrorists are elements of ex JCOs and a terrorist nexus between Al-Qaeda/Taliban/Lashkar-i-Jhangvi/Dissident “Jehadi” elements/Afghan Trained Boys (1979 onwards)/Returnees from Afghan Prisons/Afghan Refugees/Guantanamo Bay Returnees. Main weapon is the suicide bomber.

Counter Terror Strategy

Holistic approach needed – with different strands to deal with differing dimensions of the problem.

Military action and military courts only deal with the immediate problem

There is also the long term issue of altering mindsets

Also winning over people – 3 diff categories

ORGANISATION OF NSC

Prime Minister – Chairman

Secretariat: NACTA

• Deputy Chairman Minister for Interior• Members

• Minister for Defence• Minister for Foreign Affairs• Minister for Finance• Chairman JCSC• COAS • CNS• CAS

• By Invitation. Others as Required• Secretary : DG NACTA

• Deputy Chairman DG NACTA• Members

• Heads of Intelligence Organisations• Police Rep• Para Military Rep• Non-governmental security experts

• By Invitation: Others as Required

Plenary Council Specialist Working Group

Foundations for a counter terrorism policy will have to have a strategy premised on:

a) Disengagement from the US War on Terror as that will deprive the militants of their distorted narrative of jehad. This will immediately create a positive environment for Pakistan to deal with its problem of militancy and terrorism.

b) Isolating the hard core terrorists from their supporters and the fence sitters.

For Balochistan, laying down of arms amnesty offer along with economic development and political empowerment are needed

For Karachi and its mafia terrorism, where elements of TTP may also be enmeshed, deweaponisation & depoliticisation of police needed. The military cannot be used to fight mafia terrorism as it is not geared for fighting street crime.

c) Madrassahs

Madrassah reform – including public-private partnership idea

Registration

Hate speech/literature issue Illegal constructions – law must apply equally to all

d) Foreign funding

From Madrassahs to NGOs – transparency and accountability

CASE OF FATA

Mainstreaming

Economic development