Geoshare Workshop Purdue, 11 Sep 2014 What Geoshare may do for us Hermann Lotze-Campen.

Geoshare WorkshopPurdue, 11 Sep 2014

What Geoshare may do for us

Hermann Lotze-Campen

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014

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Energy system

MAGICC(climate)

LPJmL (vegetation)

Climate change

Constraints (yields, water, land)

CO2

GHG emissionsAerosols

MAgPIE(land use)

Bioenergy costsLUC emissions

REMIND (energy)

Land use pattern

AlbedoExtreme eventsSea-level risey

Bioenergy demandCO2 price

Temp. change

Scenariosconstraints

Integrated Assessment Modelling at PIK


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Regional Demand

Population

Income / GDP

International Trade

Socio-Economic Data

- cost and investment data

Calories and Livestock Share

Self-Sufficiencies

ptb

1- ptb Comparative Advantage

Regional Supply

Biophysical inputs (LPJmL)

-crop yields-land / water constraints-vegetation and soil carbon

Cropping Patterns

Deforestation Rate

MAgPIE

Land Pools

based on FAO, IUCN and WRI

on 0.5° grid

on 0.5° grid

regional

Water Scarcity

Transport Costs (JRC)on 0.5° grid

MAgPIE overview


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MIP onclimate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2050

(AgMIP Global Economics Team)

Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2014

Nelson et al., PNAS, 2014

Special issue


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Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - data

• Acknowledging spatial and temporal variability (soil, water, productivity, climate impacts, emission factors, …)

• Bringing more geography into economics (land quality, transportation, market access) [e.g. precision farming]

• Linking monetary and biophysical dimensions

• Linking modelling outputs to poverty and food/nutrition security (where are the (poor) people?)

• Provision of (alternative) standardized input data sets

• Thinking beyond cropland: reducing uncertainties on all major landuse types (crop, pasture, forest, urban, …) and livestock

• Model validation, exploring of uncertainties, model improvement

• Harmonization of inputs for model intercomparisons

• Accessability, transparency, replicability of modelling results(e.g. AgMIP GlobEcon results, IAM SSP results)

(see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)


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Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - workflows

• Integration of global and regional modelling approaches (e.g. on crop modelling, hydrology, CC adaptation) [and data sets]

• Linking local management options to large-scale assessments

• Standardizing the climate-biophysical-economics modelling chain for external users

• Linking the agriculture and energy sectors

• BUT: Who are the actual workflow users?

• Possible way forward: Provide "reduced" versions of complex models for selected workflows for external users?

• Can Geoshare/HUB be used for managing the AgMIP econ process?

• Options for distributed funding: e.g. German BMBF-funded project with link to Geoshare

(see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)


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AgMIP Global Economics modelling standards

• Definition of regions

• Definition of sectors/crop groups: wht, cgn, ric, osd, sug, CR5

• GDP, Population

• Agricultural productivity growth

• Conversion from grid to regions/countries

• Definition of output variables

• CSV files for inputs/outputs

• XLS pivot tables

• R code for post-processing

• Dropbox for data exchange

• Group management: provide inputs and collect outputs

• Needed: Software for iterative analysis/assessment of results

Geoshare Workshop Purdue, 11 Sep 2014 What Geoshare may do for us Hermann Lotze-Campen.

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Transcript of Geoshare Workshop Purdue, 11 Sep 2014 What Geoshare may do for us Hermann Lotze-Campen.