GDMO data file - RDwebusdec.files.cms-plus.com/GDMO/USDEC-GDMO-201306.pdf · (November-January)....
Transcript of GDMO data file - RDwebusdec.files.cms-plus.com/GDMO/USDEC-GDMO-201306.pdf · (November-January)....
U.S. exports (MT, Jan-Apr): NDM/SMP 161,298 +3% CHEESE 95,575 +7% WHEY 153,650 +4% BUTTERFAT 18,779 +3%
2011-13 PRICE TREND - SMP, WMP, CHEESE, BUTTER, WHEY* ($/MT)
*Mid-point of range. Milk powder, cheese and butterfat are Oceania; whey is EU. Source: USDA's Dairy Market News.
Markets well supported at mid-yearEUROPE OCEANIA
SMP 3900-4300 4350-4850
(+25) (-300)
WMP 4550-5050 4750-5175
(+50) (-188)
Cheddar 4450-4800 4200-4700
cheese (+175) NC
Butter 5000-5400 4250-4650
(+150) NC
Butteroil 5600-6000 4800-5200
(+100) NC
Dry whey 1225-1450 1575-1750
(-63) (+38)
WPC-34% NA 3100-3500
NC
Lactose NA 1550-1750
(-50)
Source: USDEC.
2010 Wilson Blvd., Suite 400 � Arlington, VA 22201 � USA � PHONE 703.528.3049 � FAX 703.528.3705 � usdec.org Managed by Dairy Management Inc.™
CURRENT PRICES
$/MT, FOB SHIP (with change from mid-April)
Market Outlook
By Alan Levitt, Marc Beck and Brad Gehrke
The global dairy markets have corrected from the New-Zealand-drought-induced rally of a couple months ago, and we come to the mid-point of 2013 with prices relatively steady and well supported. Export prices out of Oceania have pulled back 10-20% since April. European prices have been stable and U.S. prices mixed. The market is expected to remain firm in the third quarter due to ongoing supply constraints in major exporting countries.
Production shortfalls are still hanging over the market. Milk production among the five major suppliers (EU-27, United States, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina) was down approximately 3.2% in March and April, a decline of nearly 1.5 million tons of milk. There’s still not much product available from South America, and the European and United States spring flushes have come and gone. We expect modest improvement in the second half of the year, but project overall milk production from these five suppliers to be about flat for calendar 2013.
Recent rains came too late to salvage New Zealand’s current season --production there was down about 25% in March and April. Because of heavy culling and strong comparables, it will be tough for New Zealand to turn back to positive anytime soon. As a result, we project Kiwi milk production will be down 5-7% for calendar year 2013, a reduction of 1.4 million tons, equivalent to about 160,000-200,000 tons less product available this year to overseas buyers. Furthermore, we expect the cupboard is mostly bare: New Zealand exports were up about 14% year-over-year in the August-to-April period, even though milk production in the same nine months was flat, suggesting significant inventory draw-down ahead of the new season.
Turn to Well supported, p. 2
June 11 2013
Volume 17, No. 6U.S. Dairy
Export Council
© Copyright 2013 U.S. Dairy Export Council. All rights reserved by copyright owners. Reproduction of all portions of this newsletter is permitted with proper
credit to U.S. Dairy Export Council.
GLOBAL DAIRY
1000
1120
1240
1360
1480
1600
2600
3240
3880
4520
5160
5800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Whey
SM
P,
WM
P, C
heese,
Butter
SMP WMP CHEESE BUTTER WHEY
2011 2012 2013
OVERVIEW 2
TOTAL MILK PRODUCTION FROM MAJOR EXPORTERS (000 MT)
Source: USDA, EuroStat, DairyAustralia, DCANZ, Argentina Ministry of Agriculture.
Well SupportedContinued from p 1
Exporters are making strategic decisions in the face of lower output. New Zealand is focusing its dwindling milk flow on whole milk powder at the expense of cheese and butter. On the other hand, the Europeans are focusing on cheese and butter (for internal needs and for Russia), and producing less milk powder.
Meanwhile, buying activity remains good, though higher commodity prices have given some buyers pause. In addition, substitution has become more feasible, as the premium of dairy protein/fat vs. vegetable protein/fat has risen over the last 6-9 months.
Still, in the first four months of the year, imports from China (+17%), Russia (+25%) and Algeria (+16%) all were strong. Russia milk production is lagging year-ago levels – an indication that imports will continue. Mexico production is flat, even as consumption continues to grow, so they’ll need to buy too. On the other hand, Japan milk production is down this year, but consumption is lower, making more milk available for manufacturing.
Buyers are mostly covered for near-term needs and are now starting to extend coverage for third quarter and into fourth quarter. Of course, purchases from China are seasonally slower. Over the last four years, China’s imports of milk powder and whey were 31% lower in Q3 than in the other three quarters. By fourth quarter, though, China will be ordering heavily again. The safeguard trigger for the China-New Zealand FTA increases again in 2014, and Chinese buyers will be putting in orders in November and December to get product in the pipeline for imports during January and February to get the tariff break before the trigger is hit.
We expect supply tightness will keep prices at or near current levels over the next 3-5 months – at least until Oceania flush production comes on the market. There is a growing belief that markets may remain undersupplied into 2014. However, keep an eye on how quickly supply responds to higher farmgate milk prices in major supply regions. Fonterra’s opening payout price for 2013/14 was up
ABOUT THIS ISSUE
Global Dairy Market Outlook is written and distributed monthly by the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 400, Arlington, VA 22201, USA, (703) 528-3049, FAX (703) 528-3705, website www.usdec.org. Data is compiled and analyzed by Alan Levitt, vice president of communications and market analysis; Marc Beck, executive vice president of strategy and insights; and Brad Gehrke, director of global trade analysis. Analysis is supported by USDEC's network of nine international offices.
This issue of Global Dairy Market Outlook covers conditions at early June, 2013.
USDEC uses sources believed to be reliable but cannot warrant the accuracy of the information herein. Global Dairy Market Outlook is solely for information purposes and is not to be construed as commercial trading advice.
The U.S. Dairy Export Council, primarily funded by Dairy Management Inc. through the producer checkoff, works closely with its member processors, trading companies and others to build global demand for U.S. dairy products.
Includes EU, U.S., New Zealand, Australia and Argentina. EU and Argentina are milk deliveries. 30-day months. * April-June 2013 USDEC estimate.
21% from the prior year, FrieslandCampina and other European suppliers are offering record-high payments (up 20% or more from a year ago), and farmgate milk prices in South America are up nearly 20% since December. All this will eventually bring on more milk.
Current and forecast conditions are favorable for U.S. suppliers. U.S. export prices have returned to a favorable relationship with Oceania and European prices. In April, the United States posted record-high shipments of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (55,187 tons) and improved volumes of cheese (25,551 tons), lactose (29,523 tons) and whey proteins (41,456 tons). Tight alternative supplies and firm prices in the months ahead should enable U.S. exporters to boost share versus global competitors in the months ahead.
20,300
20,940
21,580
22,220
22,860
23,500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2011 2012 2013*
U.S. Dairy Export Council - Global Dairy Market Outlook - Visit us at usdec.org JUNE 11, 2013 - VOLUME 17, NO. 6
U.S. exported 15.7% of its milk production (TSB) in April YTD volumes +6% vs. prior year: PAGE 7 3
U.S. ExportsU.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, TOP 10 MARKETS (JANUARY-APRIL AND % CHANGE VS. PRIOR YEAR)
U.S. exports reach record levels in AprilU.S. EXPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION
Jan-Apr 2013 yr ago
NDM/SMP 46% 44%
Total cheese 5.7% 5.4%
Butterfat 5.8% 5.8%
Dry sweet whey 48% 47%
Lactose 72% 66%
Total milk solids 13.7% 13.0%
U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION
Source: USDA, USDEC, National Milk Producers Federation.
Capitalizing on steady global demand, declining supply from other exporters and favorable pricing relationships, U.S. dairy exporters moved record volumes overseas in April. U.S. exports of dry ingredients (milk powder, whey products, lactose), cheese and butterfat topped 168,000 tons in April, up 20% compared with March (on a daily-average basis). Total value was $558.8 million, up 16% from March, and also a new high.
Gains were led by an unprecedented level of milk powder shipments. April exports of NDM/SMP were 55,187 tons; the previous high was 47,787 tons in October 2010. Exports were equivalent to 61% of U.S. NDM/SMP production in April, leading to a steep draw-down in manufacturers’ stocks during the month. April also marked the third straight month of improved export volumes. February-April shipments
were 38% higher than volumes posted in the previous three months (November-January).
Shipments of cheese, WPC and lactose also continue to exceed prior-year levels. Cheese exports in the first four months of the year were up 7% vs. a year ago, WPC was up 16% and lactose was up 11%. In addition, fluid milk/cream (+62%) and ice cream (+52%) posted very strong increases in the January-April period.
Dry whey exports improved in April, posting their highest volume since May 2012. April exports of 19,647 were up 6% vs. a year ago.
On a total-solids basis, exports were equivalent to 15.7% of U.S. milk production in April, easily the most ever. Meanwhile, imports as a percent of milk-solids production were 2.9%.
CHINA
$135 m, -3%
JAPAN
$110 m, +7%
SO. KOREA
$88 m, +22%
SOUTHEAST ASIA
$368 m, +10%
MIDDLE EAST/NO. AFRICA
$207 m, +19%
MEXICO
$425 m, +3%
CARIBBEAN
$61 m, -12%
OCEANIA
$94 m, +43%
CANADA
$215 m, +18%
SOUTH AMERICA
$86 m, +11%
1.0
4.4
7.8
11.2
14.6
18.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% o
f m
ik p
rod
ucti
on
(T
SB
)
EXPORTS IMPORTS
NDM/SMP...................................4Cheese..........................................4Butterfat.......................................4Whey Products.............................5
Lactose..........................................6WMP.............................................6Food Preps (Blends)......................6Fluid milk/cream...........................6
U.S. Dairy Export Council - Global Dairy Market Outlook - Visit us at usdec.org JUNE 11, 2013 - VOLUME 17, NO. 6
U.S. EXPORTS 4
NDM/SMP, Cheese & Butterfat
NDM/SMP U.S. NDM/SMP EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. NDM/SMP CUSTOMERS (MT)
CHEESE U.S. CHEESE EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. CHEESE CUSTOMERS (MT)
BUTTERFAT U.S. BUTTERFAT EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. BUTTERFAT CUSTOMERS (MT)
Source: USDA.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
SaudiArabia
Iran Egypt Morocco UAE
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
35,000
56,000
77,000
98,000
119,000
140,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
15,000
29,000
43,000
57,000
71,000
85,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
0
14,000
28,000
42,000
56,000
70,000
Mexico SE Asia ME/NA China Peru
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Mexico So. Korea ME/NA Japan Canada
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
5,600
11,200
16,800
22,400
28,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
NDM/SMP exports are trending higher. U.S. powder exports in April were 55,187 tons, 40% more than last year and the highest month ever by a significant margin. In April, volumes to Southeast Asia were up 72% vs. prior year and shipments to Middle East/North Africa more than doubled.
Cheese exports are steady at near-record levels. U.S. exports in April were 25,551 tons, up 6% vs. a year ago. In the first four months of the year, shipments to Mexico were up 10% vs. prior year, while South Korea (+7%), Japan (+35%) and Egypt (+161%) also posted gains.
Butterfat exports slipped back in April after improving in the previous four months. U.S. exports in April were 4,187 tons, down 29% vs. a year ago. So far in 2013, nearly 84% of the volume has gone to the Middle East/North Africa region, primarily Saudi Arabia and Iran.
U.S. Dairy Export Council - Global Dairy Market Outlook - Visit us at usdec.org JUNE 11, 2013 - VOLUME 17, NO. 6
U.S. EXPORTS 5
Whey Products
U.S. TOTAL WHEY EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. TOTAL WHEY CUSTOMERS (MT)
U.S. DRY WHEY EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. DRY WHEY CUSTOMERS (MT)
U.S. WPC EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WPC CUSTOMERS (MT)
U.S. WPI EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WPI CUSTOMERS (MT)
Source: USDA.
90,000
99,000
108,000
117,000
126,000
135,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
40,000
48,000
56,000
64,000
72,000
80,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
35,000
43,000
51,000
59,000
67,000
75,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
2,800
3,300
3,800
4,300
4,800
5,300
2010 2011 2012 2013
0
11,000
22,000
33,000
44,000
55,000
China SE Asia Mexico Canada Japan
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
5,400
10,800
16,200
21,600
27,000
China SE Asia Canada Japan Mexico
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
6,000
12,000
18,000
24,000
30,000
China SE Asia Mexico So. Korea Canada
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Canada EU SE Asia Japan Brazil China
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
Whey export volumes are trending higher. U.S. exports of whey products in April were 41,456 tons, up 13% vs. March (daily-average basis). The composition of U.S. whey exports continues to shift up the value-chain: WPC exports were up 16% in the January-April period (vs. prior year), while dry whey shipments were down 5%. China remains the major customer for U.S. whey products, with YTD purchases up 19% vs. 2012.
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U.S. EXPORTS 6
Other Products
U.S. LACTOSE EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. LACTOSE CUSTOMERS (MT)
U.S. WMP EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WMP CUSTOMERS (MT)
U.S. FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) CUSTOMERS (MT)
U.S. FLUID MILK/CREAM EXPORTS - ROLLING QUARTERS (000 LITERS) U.S. FLUID MILK/CREAM CUSTOMERS (000 LITERS)
Source: USDA.
50,000
58,000
66,000
74,000
82,000
90,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
-
6,000
12,000
18,000
24,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
12,500
15,500
18,500
21,500
24,500
2010 2011 2012 2013
-
5,600
11,200
16,800
22,400
28,000
SE Asia China NZ Japan Mexico
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
SE Asia Mexico China/Hong Kong Israel Canada
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
-
2,800
5,600
8,400
11,200
14,000
Canada Africa Mexico SE Asia Central America
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
9,000
11,800
14,600
17,400
20,200
23,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
-
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
Canada Mexico China/HongKong
SE Asia Caribbean
JAN-APR 2012 JAN-APR 2013
Lactose and fluid milk exports are moving at a record pace in early 2013. In the first four months of the year, lactose export volume was 114,505 tons, up 11% vs. a year ago. Exports of fluid milk/cream topped 28.3 million liters, up 62% compared with a year earlier.
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U.S. EXPORTS 7
5-Year Trend
U.S. EXPORTS VOLUME AND VALUE
NDM/SMP (MT) CHEESE (MT) BUTTERFAT (MT)
TOTAL WHEY (MT) DRY WHEY (MT) WPC (MT)
WPI (MT) LACTOSE (MT) WMP (MT)
FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) (MT) FLUID MILK (000 LITERS) TOTAL EXPORT VALUE (MILLION $)
Sources: USDA, USDEC.
-
14,000
28,000
42,000
56,000
70,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
60,000
120,000
180,000
240,000
300,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
66,000
132,000
198,000
264,000
330,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
18,000
36,000
54,000
72,000
90,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
54,000
108,000
162,000
216,000
270,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
80,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
1,080.0
2,160.0
3,240.0
4,320.0
5,400.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TOTAL
YTDfor charts below:* Volume includes SMP, WMP, food preps, whey, cheese, butterfat, lactose
April exports top $558 millionU.S. exports in April were valued at a record-high $558.8 million, 21% more than last year. Aggregate export volume of dry ingredients (milk powder, whey products and lactose), cheese and butterfat was 168,069 tons, 19% more than March on a daily-average basis and 36% more
than the pace of Q4-2012.
130
224
318
412
506
600
50,000
80,000
110,000
140,000
170,000
200,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Valu
e (
millio
n $
)
Vo
lum
e (
MT
)
AGGREGATE VOLUME, SELECTED PRODUCTS* TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE
-
96,000
192,000
288,000
384,000
480,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. Dairy Export Council - Global Dairy Market Outlook - Visit us at usdec.org JUNE 11, 2013 - VOLUME 17, NO. 6