Future trends and their relevance for DRR and CCA research “Living and working”

PLACARD Foresight Workshop –How can foresight help to reduce

vulnerability to climate-related hazards?

Session 2: Future trends and their relevance for DRR and CCA research“Living and working”

(pitch: Johannes Göllner, National Defence Academy)

Major Andreas PEER, MA, MA

Johannes GOELLNER, MSc, MSc

Date: 24th October 2016Venue: National Met Service,

Hohe Warte 38, 1190 Vienna, Austria

(pitch: Johannes Göllner, National Defence Academy)

Pitch-Agenda:

Living and working

• a more urban world• a more urban world

• technological change

• global competition for resources

• economic growth

Threats and fear as driver for future conflicts

Typical topics in future threat discussions in industrialized countries

Typical topics in future threat discussions in non industrialized countries

• Terrorist attacks

• Cyber attacks

• Espionage • Environmental damage• Espionage

• Organized crime

• Sound pollution

• Light pollution

• High tech threats

• CBRN

• Financial market instability

• New technology discussions

• Instability in resource markets

• Environmental damage

• High technology waste

• Climate threats

• Extreme weather

• Resources scarcity

Source: Goellner Johannes, Klerx Joachim: Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks,

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis Workshop, 21-22 October 2015, Helsinki, http://www.act.nato.int/futures-ws-3

Living and working Living and working

ad) a more urban world:

The 10 largest global business risks in 2016

1. Operational and supply chain interruption: 38%

2. Market development (volatility, competition, stagnating markets): 34% (NEW)

3. Cyber events: 28%

4. Natural disaster: 24%4. Natural disaster: 24%

5. Legal changes: 24%

6. Macroeconomic developments (commodity prices, austerity programs, deflation, inflation): 22% (NEW)

7. Reputational risk: 18%

8. Fire, explosion: 16%

9. Political risks: 11%

10. Theft, fraud, corruption: 11%

Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty in Allianz Risk Barometer: Die 10 größten Geschäftsrisiken 2016

untill 2025-2030: approx. 50% unemployed blue coloured

workers in production industry, based on extensive

robotics-integration

Study PWC-Price Waterhouse Coopers in 09/2016Study PWC-Price Waterhouse Coopers in 09/2016

Enterprise 4.0 Investments untill 2020 per anno: EUR 40

Billion, in sum: approx. EUR 160 Billion

Article: Controller Magazin, 05/06 2016

7Johannes GÖLLNER

Source: Goellner Johannes, Qurichmayr Gerald: META-RISK: Meta-Risiko-Modell für kritische Infrastrukturen,

ICT-Security Conference 2016, St. Johann i./Pongau, Salzburg, Austria,12.10.2016

Global Supply Chain Networks

Copyright by Goellner, Peer 2016 based on Goellner 2015Source: Göllner.J, Peer.A, Quirchmayr.G, Rass. St., Global Supply Chain Network Risk Analysis and Monitoring for Global CyberDefence, expected Contribution in Cyber 3D-Handbook in Springer International Publishing, New York 2017


ad) technological change:

Future threats and developments in cyber security

Clear identity Clear identity

rules Clear rules

for usage

AnonymityFreedom of speech

Cyber Future

2030Geoshifts in cyber

innovation, from

industrialized

countries to new

economies

2040A new power on the

horizon - Global

virtual communities

2020Virtual

currencies,

infiltrated by

organized crime

2035Intelligent sensors and

tracking: finding

anything, anywhere,

anytime

2025New advanced persistent

threats (APT) with intelligent

autonomous bots,

reconnaissance of future

hybrid wars

Factual unlimited storage in the cloud

Disru

ptiv

e

Ev

en

ts

Cyber

warfare

Cyber

warfare

Right to be

informed

Right to

delete

Right to

deleteProactive

protection

Proactive

protection

IPR for data

Competition of large scale SIGINT systems

End of exponential increase of computing power

Ubiquitous but filtered information

Increasing amount of mobile and embedded clients

Increasing asymmetric knowledge in cyber security

Factual unlimited storage in the cloud

Tre

nd

s

Prices explosion of Zero

day exploitsA droid for all seasons

Dark-netsGlobal black hacker

industry

Insider

attacks

Insider

attacks

Black markets for

information

A society of

surveillance

A society of

surveillance

Network Network

breakdown –

accidental or

natural

Threats TrendsSocial

Needs

Social

NeedsWeak Signals

Quantum computing

Magnonic Computing

Ultra-paranoid computing


NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis Workshop, 21-22 October 2015, Helsinki.

• Physical encapsulation– No direct "grab" the products

– Standardised encapsulation

– Analogy to the digital internet

Physical Internet (PI):

– Analogy to the digital internet

• Digital encapsulation– Smart boxes/containers

• Interfaces for universal networking– PI-Container (FP 7-Project MODULUSHCA)

– PI-forklift, -conveyors, -warehouse

– PI-protocol for optimized universal networking



Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks

Physical Internet: FP 7-Project MODULUSHCASupply Chain Application

New Concept for logistics operations:http://www.modulushca.eu

Logistics 2050Five Visions of the Future

„In some parts of the world the last mile delivery

network is also maintained as a backup service

for communication in case online systems fail.“

[Deutsche Post AG 2012, p. 109]

Source: Deutsche Post DHL, 2012

„Daily deliveries within city regions are carried

out by electric vehicles with fuel cells or battery

packs.“


„The production process for most goods changes dramatically.

A significant share of households is equipped with 3D printers.

Many people produce smaller, less complex items and products

at home. Construction blueprints for these products are either

self-designed or bought in online shops.“


Living and working

ad) global competition for resources: ad) global competition for resources:

for instance:

• Raw material

• Financial assets

Environmental threats and risks, that might cause future conflicts

Dead zones

(Ocean)Water

pollution and

peak water

Surprising side

engineering

Surprising side

effects of genetic

engineering

Environment Future

2030Protecting Air

Quality: The Effects

of Air Pollution in

Developed and

Developing

Countries

2040Demographic

developments are

correlated to natural

resources

2020Common

standards for

environmental

protection

2035Sources of climate

change are clear an

supports a common

strategy on climate

protection

2025Saving Lives

Through Disaster

Prediction

Light pollution in industrialized countriesDeforestation, loss of biodiversity and desertification

Disru

ptiv

e

Ev

en

tsT

ren

ds

Collapse of

space waste

Collapse of

space waste

Light pollution in industrialized countries

Globalization of food fraud

Plastic garbage patches in the ocean

Acidification of ocean

Deforestation, loss of biodiversity and desertification

Tre

nd

s

Bio-Breakout: A

World Swept by

Pandemics

Agro-terrorism

Impact of a Cataclysmic

Seismic Event


Needs

Social

NeedsWeak Signals

Land pollution with human wasteAir pollution without boarders

Noise pollution on land and sea

Eco-Terrorism

Genes from GMOs

Proliferate in Nature

Genes from GMOs

Proliferate in Nature

Nuclear material in food

Increasing amount of nuclear waste

Clean Clean

Nature



Source: Umbach Frank, Goellner Johannes et al: Economy/Resource Group, NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis

Workshop, 26-27 September 2016, Bydgoszcz, Polen, (NATO unclassified).

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

World Mining Productionby groups of minerals

Without bauxite and construction materials

Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2015; Prof. Weber, Montan University Leoben

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Mineral Fuels Iron & Ferro Alloys Non Ferrous Ind. Min Precious Metals



12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

World Mining Productionby political stability of the producer countries

Without bauxite and construction materials

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

extrem unstable unstable fair stable

Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2015; Prof. Weber, Montan University Leoben



10

100

Mountain PassBayan Obo

Measured, indicated and inferred resources in metr. t(L. WEBER & J. LIU, 2015)

RE

E g

rade

in %

REE-Resources by continents

JongjuN-Korea

m=2,908 Mio tm=1,595 Mio t (excl. Jongiu)

Distribution of global REE resourcesby continents

Jo

ach

im:

Em

erg

ing

Ris

ks a

nd

Dis

rup

tive

Tre

nd

s in

(G

lob

al)

Su

pp

ly C

ha

in N

etw

ork

s, N

AT

O S

tra

teg

ic F

ore

sig

ht A

na

lysis

Wo

rksh

op

, 2

1-2

2

0,01

0,1

1

1,00E+04 1,00E+05 1,00E+06 1,00E+07 1,00E+08 1,00E+09 1,00E+10

RE

E g

rade

in %

Africa Oceania Asia Europe N-America S-America

Size in metr. t

by continents(incl. / excl. Jongiu)

Europe (17,6% ) 32,4% (!)North-America (13,3% ) 24,4%Africa ( 8,9% ) 16,7%Asia (52,4%) 12,5% (!)Oceania ( 6,0%) 11,0%Latin America ( 1,6%) 3,0 %

19So

urc

e: G

oe

llne

rJo

ha

nn

es, K

lerx

Jo

ach

im:

Em

erg

ing

Ris

ks a

nd

Dis

rup

tive

Tre

nd

s in

(G

lob

al)

Su

pp

ly C

ha

in N

etw

ork

s, N

AT

O S

tra

teg

ic F

ore

sig

ht A

na

lysis

Wo

rksh

op

, 2

1O

cto

be

r 2

01

5, H

els

inki.

Shareholder Network – raw earth

American CompaniesJapanese Companies

Shareholders network

Source: Göllner, Peer: Strategisches Lagezentrum für

Ressource-Analysis – SRA: Netzwerkanalyse

Network Analysis of Banking & Finance Networks

Source:


ad) economic growth:

Future public infrastructure and governance

Globalized Migration: Globalized Migration:

Complex Human

Transfers

Peer to peer Peer to peer

nets against

surveillance

2030Establishment of

international

armed forces to

2020New forms of supply

chain networks and

increasing

2035Conflicts about power

2025A new power on

the horizon –

Information

management for

Disru

ptiv

e

Ev

en

ts

Nuclear espionage of non state actorsThe shape of Islam in

the 21st century

Declining recruitment

rates of armed forces

Epistemic networks in organized crime

Increasing power

of transnational

corporations

Globalization of

criminal networks

Political and Political and

commercial

disinformation

Globalisatio and

strategic sourcing

Future public infrastructure

armed forces to

protect supply

chain networks

increasing

interdependence

between these networks

Conflicts about power

and influence in the new

supply chain networks

management for

supply chain

networks

New players in the struggle about political influence

Disru

ptiv

e

Tre

nd

s Uncontrolled Uncontrolled

release of

nuclear waste Dirty Bombs and

CBRN terrorism

Dirty Bombs and

CBRN terrorism


Needs

Social

NeedsWeak Signals

The Risks of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism

Digitalization with increasing speed

Globalization and strategic sourcing

Democracy and terrorism



Supply Chain Security: (FOCUS: Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles, EU-FP 7 programe)

The “threat side of the Supply chain security equation” –The “threat side of the Supply chain security equation” –including exogenous threats to EU - is not well covered in the literature today.

Instead, most of the literature refers vaguely to “terrorism threat” or “cargo crime” as main reasons behind Supply chain security programs, standards and regulations. (see D5.1 www.focusproject.eu , page 99, point 8.3, Ending Date: 31/03/2013)



Crypto currencies as disruptive trend for international supply chain networks

Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks



Crypto currencies as disruptive trend for international supply chain networks

Source: Herko Thomas, Assistant Director, Ececutive Office, INTERPOL Global Complex for Innovation: ICT-Security

Conference 2016, St. Johann i./Pongau, Salzburg, Austria,11.10.2016, Photo by Johannes GOELLNER

• Design or re-design the supply chain network stuctures

Capability development options:

– Peer to Peer structure (decentralized) vs centralized managedsupply chain network,

• remark: but loss of state sovereignity because of increasing peer to peerstructure of supply chain network.

– How to protect and attack decentralized supply chain network?

Development of a monitoring solution:

– „Supply Chain Monitoring Solution“, • e.g. in analogy to the first guideline of Working Group: Supply Chain Risk

Management of the Risk Management Association, Munich, Germany (2013-2015) (https://www.rma-ev.org/Veroeffentlichung-zum-Download.696.0.html)

Capability development options:

2015) (https://www.rma-ev.org/Veroeffentlichung-zum-Download.696.0.html)

– „Strategic situation awareness center for permantly global analysisof strategic resource/raw material-SRA“ (www.kiras.at, 2014-12/2015)

– „Strategic situation awareness center for permantly global analysisof cyber democracy, cyber development and cyber defence“,

• e.g. in analogy to the „Cyber Documentation and Research Center“, Dept. of Central Documentation & Information, National Defence Academy of theAustrian MoD, (10/2014-ongoing)



Thank you for your attention !Thank you for your attention !

Andreas PEER

For further information, question and specific interest, please contact:

Johannes GOELLNERHead of Section Knowledge ManagementDept. of Central Documentation & Information,National Defense Academy, Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sport

A-1070 Vienna, Stiftgasse 2a, Austria

mobil: +43-650-2252991

email: [email protected]

Andreas PEERProject Officer Knowledge ManagementSection Knowledge ManagementDept. of Central Documentation & Information,National Defense Academy, Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sport

A-1070 Vienna, Stiftgasse 2a, Austria

mobil: +43(0) 664 43 33 981

email: [email protected]

Future trends and their relevance for DRR and CCA research “Living and working”

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