www.ecn.nl

Future of offshore wind

Dr Jan Willem Wagenaar

Bergen, NORCOWE Grand summarizing conference15 September 2016

Offshore wind development NL

• Operational (357MW)– OWEZ 2006 108MW

– Amalia 2008 120MW

– Luchterduinen 2015 129MW

• Under construction (600MW)– Gemini 2017 600MW

• Planned tender (3500MW)– Borssele 2016 700MW

– Borssele 2016 700MW

– HKZ 2017 700MW

– HKZ 2018 700MW

– HKN 2019 700MW

Offshore wind development NL

• First tender Borssele– Won by Dong

– Cheapest offshore wind farm

• Next offshore wind farms expensive– Less favourable finance conditions

– Further from shore

• GROW 20 for 7– Growth through Research, development

and demonstration in Offshore Wind

– 5 year programme

– 20 partners

– 7 €c/kWh

Future R&D

Offshore wind aspects

Logistics24%

Waiting61%

Travel1%

Repair14%

Distribution of downtime(corrective maintenance on wind turbine)

Availability [%] 92.6%

Costs [ €ct/kWh] 2.70

Total Effort [M €] 71.30

Operations & Maintenance optimisation

Wind farm Aerodynamics Electrical layout & grid connection

Logistics & installation

Wind resource

Wind turbine design

Offshore wind resource

All data publicly available at www.windopzee.net

• What are local conditions?– Wind conditions

– Turbulence & Shear

– Atmospheric conditions

• What happens in upper layers?

• What combination of meteorological and maritime conditions can be expected?

• How does near shore –land transition look like?

• Validation of models

Wind farm aerodynamics

• NL Borssele wind farm zone 1400MW wind farms

Directly North of Belgian wind farms

For sure: mutual interaction

• Effect vizualization Hasager EWEA 2015: Satellite

Hasager EWEA 2015: WRF

How big is this effect?

Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)

Case study: Borssele wind farm zone

Wind farm Aerodynamics• Wind farm wake effects Belgian wind farms on BWFZ: 4%

First estimation

BWFZ on Belgian wind farms: 2.7%

Detailed FarmFlow modelling

South-West direction dominant

• The proof of the pudding is in the eating Scanning LiDAR measurement campaign

Given the current developments in offshore wind and the plans for the future, this effect becomes more and more important

Facilities Key!

WindScanner

Scaled Wind Farm

• 10 Turbines (H=7.5m, D=7.6m)

• 4 Large meteo masts (18.9m)

• 10 Small meteo masts (7.5)

Floating Wind turbine

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The Future?

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http://zeekracht.nl; Rem Koolhaas

Thank youfor your attention!

Contact:

j.wagenaar@ecn.nl+31 88 515 4909