Future Normal - MIT IDEebusiness.mit.edu/platform/agenda/slides/7... · Why Every IT Trend Points...
Transcript of Future Normal - MIT IDEebusiness.mit.edu/platform/agenda/slides/7... · Why Every IT Trend Points...
Future Normal Why Every IT Trend Points to PaaS
Peter Coffee VP and Head of Platform Research salesforce.com inc.
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Safe Harbor
In Other Words:
Everything That You See Here
is Real
’50s ’60s ’70s ’80s ’90s ’00s
PC MITS Altair IBM PC
Macintosh
Windows 3.x/9x/NT
& Linux 1.0
Windows XP & Mac OS X
Mini DEC PDP-8
DEC VAX 11/780
Sun Workstations
& Servers
Sun/ILM Render Farms
Sun/AMD x86 Servers
Niagara CPUs
Mainframe IBM 701 S/360 S/370 4300 S/390 zSeries
Nothing happens overnight; nothing goes away
’50s ’60s ’70s ’80s ’90s ’00s-’10s
Clouds + Edge
Devices X Window
Grid Computing
PC MITS Altair IBM PC
Macintosh
Windows 3.x/9x/NT
& Linux 1.0
Windows XP/7/8 Mac OS X
Mini DEC PDP-8
DEC VAX 11/780
Sun Workstations
& Servers
Sun/ILM Render Farms
Sun/AMD x86 Servers
Niagara CPUs
Mainframe IBM 701 S/360 S/370 4300 S/390 zSeries
All new IT will be connected – or ‘cloudy’… • Since the IBM PC was introduced (Aug.1981 to now)
• Processor speed has risen ~25% per year
• Memory capacity has grown ~40% per year
• Mass storage surging ~50% per year
• Desktop systems are burdened with too much state • File system technology has not addressed new needs • Governance falls short of rising demands
• Trends redefine “best practice” • Bandwidth expansion: ~45% per year • Processor road maps favor shared machines → • Data centralization → superior governance
Server CPU sales trends: Overall, 2011-2015 (TechNavio) 7.1% CAGR “Contributing to this market growth is adoption of cloud computing.” Cloud servers, 2011-15 (IDC) 21% CAGR
Coherent Code Base and Managed Infrastructure
Your Clicks
Your Code
User Interface
Logic
Database
Metadata representations: Rigorously partitioned data, logic and customizations for multiple customers
Build strategic applications
Customize any aspect
Upgrade when convenient
Preserve IP control
…but a Cloud PaaS is more than a migration
A PaaS makes upgrades part of the service
> 30 Major Releases
Every Customization & Integration Automatically Upgraded
Always have the Latest Innovations & Technology – or Defer at Local Option
Painless, No Hassle Upgrades
A PaaS enables a trusted application marketplace
iOS + Android: 100 billion downloads
> 1,800 apps > 1,100 partners > 1.9 M installations ~70% of Fortune 100
using at least one
Application stores are the royal road for ISVs
In the past year alone, we’ve seen a 27% increase in the number of apps developed on the AppExchange and a 33% increase in customer installs. Most of the apps on the AppExchange are being used and installed regularly. Not only does a customer install an AppExchange app every 40 seconds, but 66% of all AppExchange apps have been installed at least once in the last 30 days. Even more impressive, 81% of apps have been installed at least once in the last 90 days!
Changing the Face of Business One App at a Time By LEYLA SEKA | Published: JULY 25, 2013
“Digital Camera”: every December, it’s still news to someone
“Cloud Computing”: more use it, fewer ask about it
Novelty of ‘cloud’ is already past…
…but ‘cloud’ is the means for what’s now interesting
Big Data Insights
Mobile Capability
‘Big Data’ gives the cloud something to do
Elastic capacity for high peak/average ratios
Connectivity to real-world, real-time…reality
Mobility demands what only clouds can do
Android and iOS combined market share approaching 2/3
Windows at ~1/5…and shrinking
Multi-device users need decoupling from devices
What do you get from
Patterns in big data derived from
Social networks of people & devices via
Ubiquitous, 24×7 mobile connection?
1+1+1 = Wonders
App Requirement
Install & Configure Stack Write Code Deploy &
Load Test Monitor &
Tune Patch &
Regression Test
Only PaaS leverage can keep up Legacy Stack-Based Process – Wherever it Is
IDC White Paper sponsored by Salesforce.com: “Force.com Cloud Platform Drives Huge Time to Market and Cost Savings”, Doc # 219965, September, 2009
Half-life of desktop client turnover is ~10 years (WinXP: 50% market share @ 10th birthday)
Average time to build a custom app with software is ~8 months (IDC)
Since 2009, Qualcomm/Android cycle time has dropped to < 4.5 months
PaaS advantage shrinks development time fivefold
Anything slower → subsetting device features or skipping generations
PaaS = development recalibrated, not just relocated Nucleus Research analyzed Force.com deployments: found
average 4.9 times faster development (range 1.5x-10x) versus Java or .Net
– Custom objects – Administrative tools – Workflow engine – Pre-tested platform
Galorath Inc. compared developers’ Force.com productivity to Java development
– Requirements definition time reduced 25% due to rapid prototyping – Testing effort reduced by (typically) more than 10% – Development productivity of new code 5x greater – Overall project cost 30-40% less
CustomerSat sampled more than 1,100 Force.com development teams during summer 2009
– Average experience: 4 applications deployed to date – Average project cost savings: 48% – Average project acceleration: 5.1x
“But you’re a proprietary platform: you make me learn things I can’t use anywhere else”
– Open APIs enable options • Run local code and integrate • Run Java or LAMP on AWS • Treat PaaS as an adjunct tool for
– Integration of multi-vendor IT – Access to handheld devices
– Openness is present reality • Agile deployment for Ruby, Node.js,
Clojure, Java, Python & Scala • Deploy instantly with git • Servers, instances, & VMs become
invisible background capabilities
– PaaS leverage is essential
Lock-in is not acceptable
Shrinking devices accelerating product cycles
“The Portable Intelligence Platform is built on Force.com cloud computing application environment. “The development environment enables easy integration via web services with your company's existing software platforms (e.g. ERP, CRM, Finance etc.). “It is also an ideal environment for the development for the P.I. iPad, Mobile and Developer APIs.”
www.portable-intelligence.com
Michael Koster, Open Source Internet of Things www.meetup.com/The-Open-Source-Internet-Of-Things-Silicon-Valley/
APIs evolve; ecosystems emerge
Connection depends on abstraction
Mash-ups from Web and
AppExchange
Native Desktop
Connectors
Integration Tools
AppExchange Apps
ERP
Any System
Finance
Systems of Record
Systems of Engagement
Connection is not rip/replace
The general case: ‘connected’ revolution
“Through a cloud-based computing model, all this healthcare information is easily and instantly delivered from one end to another with little fuss and without being tied down by the heavy costs of investing in the installations of complicated healthcare software and technology infrastructure and of being burdened by the costs of security breaches.”
Obamacare's Gift to Tech: Cloud Computing TheStreet.com, 19 July 2013
“The flipped classroom has become increasingly popular lately because there are so many new technologies that make out-of-classroom content creation a little bit easier,” notes Chris Millet, assistant director of Education Technology Services at Penn State University. “And there are drop-dead-simple technologies that keep the flow of idea generation and exchange moving inside the classroom to support active learning.”
6 Expert Tips for Flipping the Classroom CampusTechnology.com, 23 January 2013
Connected computing leaves the desk behind
“Desktop metaphor” is 25 years old – Xerox… – Apple… – Microsoft…
…but today,
1/3 of U.S.
adults own
at least one
tablet…
…and usually don’t use it at a desk
It’s time to aim higher
1970s: front-panel switches – Think about memory and storage
– 1st gen operating system: “Load my program”
1980s: command lines – Think about programs and files
– 2nd gen operating system: “EDIT MY_FILE”
1990s: desktop metaphor – Think about ‘documents’ like spreadsheets
– 3rd gen OS: double-click an icon
It’s time for the next generation – A platform to think about…the customer
What’s PaaS is prologue – to what’s to come
Q&A? @petercoffee linkedin.com/in/petercoffee
f facebook.com/peter.coffee [email protected]