Future Climate Joint Report

8/14/2019 Future Climate Joint Report

1/63

Future Climate

Engineering Solutions

Joint report

13 engineering participatingengeneering associations

Binding targets to drive

development towardsGHG reductions

Call for a framework forjoint technology development

Achieve GHG reductions byusing energy more wisely

Action needed in the transport sector


2/63

Cover: Rune.Anders.Lars

Printed: IDAs Print Centre

ISBN: EAN 978-87-87254-25-0

Issued by The Danish Society o Engineers, IDA

September 2009

Kalvebod Brygge 31-33

1780 Kbenhavn V

Denmark

Telephone +45 33 18 48 48

Fax +45 33 18 48 99

Email: [email protected]

Editorial:

Jacob Fink Ferdinand

Pernille Hagedorn-Rasmussen

Bjarke Fonnesbech


3/63

Participating o rganisations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Key Common Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Engineering Solutions A Climate call rom engineers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

Summaries o National Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

Summary o The Climate Plan or Norway. . . . . . . . . .27

Summary o National Report rom

the Institution o Mechanical Engineers, UK . . . . . . .31

Summary o the Climate Plan or India . . . . . . . . . . . . .35

Summary o the VDI Report or Germany. . . . . . . . . . .39

The Strategy o Japan Society

o Mechanical Engineers (JSME) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

Summary o The Climate Plan or USA . . . . . . . . . . . . .45

Summary o The climate plan or Finland . . . . . . . . . .47

Summary o the Climate Plan or Ireland . . . . . . . . . .51

Summary o The Climate Plan or Sweden. . . . . . . . . .55

Summary o the IDA Climate Plan or Denmark. . . . .59

Advisory Board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Sponsors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64

Table of Contents
http://-/?-http://-/?-


4/63

4 | Future Climate Joint Report

Participating organisations

The Institution

o Engineers (India)

Federation o Scientic

Engineering Unions

in Bulgaria

The Japan Society o

Mechanical Engineers,

JSME

Institution o Mechanical

Engineers (UK)

Union o Proessional Engineers,

UIL (Finland)

Engineers Ireland The American Society o

Mechanical Engineers, ASME (USA)

The Danish Society

o Engineers, IDA

The Norwegian Society

o Engineers, NITOThe Swedish Association

o Graduate Engineers

The Finnish Association

o Graduate Engineers,

TEK (Finland)

APESMA

(Australia)

The Association o German

Engineers, VDI


5/63

Future Climate Joint Report | 5

Overcoming climate change is a major challenge or

the global society, and the oremost engineering chal-

lenge o the 21st century. There is crucial need to reduce

emissions o greenhouse gases (GHG) in order to keep

the rise in temperature below two degrees Celsius.

13 Engineering Associations rom around the world are

part o the project Future Climate - Engineering Solu-

tions. Within the project the participating associationshave been developing national climate plans and tech-

nology prospects. The plans and prospects show how

GHG emissions can be reduced substantially, and how a

sustainable path o development can be reached.

The ollowing Associations have been part o

the project:

The Norwegian Society o Engineers,

NITO (Norway)

Institution o Mechanical Engineers,

IMechE (United Kingdom)

The Institution o Engineers (India)

The Association o German Engineers,

VDI (Germany)

The Japan Society o Mechanical Engineers,

JSME (Japan)

The American Society o Mechanical Engineers,

ASME (USA)1

The Finnish Association o Graduate Engineers,

TEK (Finland)

1. The American Society o Mechanical Engineers ully

endorses the objective o the project, but was not yet in a

position to endorse the nal tex t o the joint report.

Union o Proessional Engineers, UIL (Finland)

Engineers Ireland (Ireland)

The Swedish Association o Graduate Engineers

(Sweden)

The Association o Proessional Engineers,

Scientists and Managers, Australia, APESMA(Australia)

Federation o the Scientifc - Engineering Unions

in Bulgaria, FNTS (Bulgaria)

The Danish Society o Engineers, IDA (Denmark)

This joint report includes summaries o the work pro-

vided by the Engineering Associations.

Based on the climate plans and technology prospects,the Advisory Board and the participating Associati-

ons o the Future Climate project have extracted ve

key, common ndings that could move the global soci-

ety onto a low-carbon track. To ensure the necessary

GHG emissions reductions or a two-degree scenario,

the Associations behind the project have put orward

ve recommendations or a Global Climate Treaty.

On behal o the Engineering Associations involved

in the project, I urge the leaders o the world to take

up the climate challenge and apply solutions or a

sustainable uture.

Lars Bytot

President o the Danish Society o Engineers

Foreword


6/63



7/63


Executive summary

Future Climate Engineering Solutions Joint Report

is the common output and a documentation o more

than 1 years eort by 13 engineering associations

in 12 countries to demonstrate how technologies

can combat climate change.

The report consists o three parts: Summaries o 10

national climate plans and technology prospects, 5Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call rom Engi-

neers to create a new global climate treaty.

The basic assumption o the project is recognition

that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the

atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level.

The project denition o a sustainable level is equiva-

lent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which

was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by

the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is mostlikely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4C.

The Future Climate websitewww.utureclimate.ino

holds more inormation about the project, including

possibility to download project material, including

the ull national climate plans.

Summaries o nationalclimate plans

The participating organisations have either develo-

ped national climate plans or plans or promising low

carbon technologies. The engineering organisations

o Norway, UK, India, Germany, Finland, Ireland,

Sweden and Denmark have developed climate plans,

which describe the most important technologies and

technological solutions proposed to meet the target

o a 50-85% green house gas (GHG) reduction by 2050

(excluding India as a developing country).

Executive summary

Development in GHG emissionsreductions by 2050 compared to 2007

Development in reduction o total energyconsumption by 2050 compared to 2007

Norway -76 % -30 %

UK -89 % -42 %

India (10% economicgrowth pa scenario)

+103% -

Germany (scenario 1/2/3) - 50 % / - 50 % / -63 % - 33 % / -29 %/ -19 %

Japan - 50 % -

US - -

Finland -74 % +12 %

Ireland -60 % -

Sweden No net emissions -30 %

Denmark -94 % -50 %

Table 1: Future Climate GHG emissions and energy reductions by 2050 or the 10 national climate plans
http://www.futureclimate.info/http://www.futureclimate.info/


8/63


Executive summary

The Japan Society o Mechanical Engineers has develo-

ped roadmaps or promising technologies or a sustaina-

ble society, and presents two new ndings rom these

roadmaps: Materials and energy eciency o automobi-

les, and high eciency heat pump systems. Finally, USA

has contributed by a General Position Paper2.

The climate plans include national scenarios or de-

velopment in, 2015, 2030 and 2050, in GHG emissions

(total and by sector), energy consumption, energy

supply and energy import and export. The main con-

clusions drawn rom the climate plans and the key

indicators are presented in Tables 1 and 2.

Participants in the Future Climate project indicate

that developed countries are able to reduce their

GHG emissions by 50-94%, with an average being

71% (see Table 1). India, being a developing country,

expects to increase GHG emissions, due to a high eco-

2. The engineering associations o Australia and Bulgaria

have not submitted climate plans.

nomic growth and a growing population. The project

likewise shows substantial energy savings o 30-50%

or the six countries who have projected data.

In our countries, Norway, UK, Sweden and Denmark,

renewables is the main energy sources, with biomass

being the generally primary source (see Table 2).

Wind, and hydro power do play major roles in the to-

tal energy supply, but only or a ew countries. In Ger-

many, Finland and Sweden nuclear power as a low

carbon energy source plays a major role, although the

Swedish plan projects a gradual phase out. Renewa-

ble energy sources such as wave, solar heat, geother-

mal and photovoltaics are expected to play minor

roles when compared with total energy supplies.

In general high carbon energy sources are radically

being substituted by low carbon, in particular coal,

which in 2050 is only expected to play a major role

in Germany and a smaller role in UK in combination

with carbon, capture and storage (CCS).

Biomass WindSolar

HeatHydro Wave

Geo-

thermal

Photo-

voltaicsWaste Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Other

Norway 11.5 7.5 49.5 7,5 1See

Biomass19 4

UK 11 33 2 1 9 4 3 8 8 21

Germany

scenario 114.5 5.5 0.5 1


9/63


Executive summary

Key Common Findings

From the vast and rich variety o knowledge docu-

mented in the national climate plans, a number o de-

nominators, conclusions and recommendations have

been retrieved. Five Key Common Findings have been

selected as the most easible and adequate in order to

bring down GHG emissions.:

1. Only reliable GHG reduction targets will bring uson track.

2. The near-term GHG reduction needs can be

achieved with proven technologies, and promising

technologies exist to meet the mid and long term

needs .

3. Conditions must be stimulated or engineering

solutions to enhance technological innovations

globally.

4. Energy eciency is the easiest, smartest and most

inexpensive path towards substantial GHG reduc-

tions.

5. Clean transport calls or global action at multina-

tional corporate and government levels.

Climate Call rom Engineers or

a new global climate treaty

On the basis o the Key Common Findings ve main

recommendations or a new global climate treaty is

put orward by the engineers:

Commitment to binding but dierentiated targetsor all countries, ensuring that GHG emissions can

peak as soon as possible, and certainly beore 2020.

Commitment to developing national greenhouse

gas reduction plans towards 2050 beore 2012.

Setting-up an appropriate ramework

o joint technology development, with a

multi-aceted technological approach.

Strengthening nancial support to allowtranser o technology, which must be recep-

tive to a variety o relevant technologies.

Commitment to a common eort

in the area o transport.


10/63


11/63


Engineering Solutions A Climate call rom engineers

1. Only reliable GHG reduction targets will bring us

on track.

2. The near-term GHG reduction needs can be achieved

with proven technologies, and promising technolo-

gies exist to meet the mid and long term needs.

3. Conditions must be stimulated or engineering solu-

tions to enhance technological innovations globally.

4. Energy eciency is the easiest, smartest and

most inexpensive path towards substantial GHG

reductions.

5. Clean transport calls or global action at multina-

tional corporate and government levels.

Key Common Findings

Through the numerous meetings and discussions held during the Future Climate project,

and rom the vast and rich variety o knowledge documented in the national climate plans,

a number o denominators, conclusions and recommendations have been retrieved. Among

this, 5 key common ndings have been selected as the most easible and adequate in order to

bring orward a common call or action rom engineers worldwide.

The 5 key common fndings o the Future Climate project are:


12/63


Five key common fndings

Reliable targets

The Future Climate project has demonstrated that,

with available and known technologies, it is possible

to make substantial GHG reductions in the near and

the long term to meet the project target o an average

global temperature rise below 2C the


13/63



Government targets and strategic sector policies

By its Climate Change Act o 2008, the UK is the only

country that has a long-term legally-binding rame-

work to help meet the


14/63



Both market pull and technology push

Technology push targets, in order to drive a specic

technology or set a ramework rom technology ac-

tion programmes and road maps, are equally rel-

evant as market pull methods.

Conservative over-planning is a norm or engineers

and should be built into meeting targets in order

to be robust enough to withstand a high degree ouncertainty. For instance, the UK is putting some

emphasis on additional nuclear capacity which, i

not delivered on-time with the number o stations

required, would need to be compensated or by ad-

ditional capacity elsewhere or example rom coal

with carbon, capture and storage (CCS) technology.

CCS is still in the demonstration phase and may en-

counter implementation problems that means it will

not be able to meet the target as planned.

It is evident that the


15/63



The power sector

In the power sector, besides lower power productionneeded due to electricity savings in industry and

buildings, near term GHG reductions can be achieved

mainly through substitution o high carbon power

technologies with more onshore and oshore wind,

biomass and geothermal energy. In the promising

line o technologies in the mid and long term low

carbon power generation are photovoltaic, wave

and tidal power, usion energy and carbon, capture

and storage (CCS). This must be supported by new

intelligent electricity grids and energy systems that

maximise the capacity to utilise fuctuating power

generation rom wind and photovoltaics.

The industry sector

The Future Climate project shows that there is a large

near term potential o up to 25% energy savings in the

industry sector with low pay back times. In general,

lean management o business processes has high en-

ergy savings potential. Most o the electricity savings

can be achieved through process optimisation, energy

ecient cooling, pumping, ventilation and compressed

air, already available on the market. The largest heat

consumption savings comes rom a shit to heat pumps,

and subsequently the diusion o a large number o

available technologies, e.g. introduction o enzymes,heat recovery, and insulation, and more ecient evap-

oration, drying and separation. Fossil uels can in the

near term be substituted with biomass and bio uels.

Buildings

A number o construction, heating and power tech-

nologies are commercially available to make new

buildings net-zero GHG emitters and signicantly

reduce the carbon emissions rom existing build-

ing stock, in both cases with economic benets. This

includes inter alia heat pumps, solar power, district

heating, ecient electrical appliances, pumps and

lighting, and an improved building envelope. In the

mid to long term buildings can become power gen-

erators and an integrated part o the electricity grid

through the introduction o improved photovoltaics.

Transportation

Even current diesel and gasoline combustion engine

technology would be able to meet strict CO2 emission

standards or land transportation. Hybrid vehicles,

and the introduction o low-carbon bio uels, urther

2. The near-term GHG reduction needs can be achieved

with proven technologies, and promising technologies

exist to meet the mid and long term needs

The climate plans o the Future Climate project clearly demonstrate that the


16/63



enable immediate savings in emission o CO2. Inra-

structural instruments such as better urban plan-

ning, environmental zoning and better public trans-

portation are based on technologies already available.

Further development and commercialisation o elec-

trical vehicles over the medium term, including a low

carbon intelligent electricity grid, would radically

reduce CO2 emissions rom land transportation. Overthe medium term, high speed rail will be able to com-

pete with short-haul air transport. Both maritime

and aviation transport have immediate options or

substantial reductions o CO2 emissions. Technolo-

gies are available to improve uel eciency by use

o the ollowing: engine technology; lower riction;

change in route patterns; and shit to low carbon u-

els or both new and existing vessels and aircrat.


17/63



Top-down technology strategies needed

Governments should thereore adopt top-down tech-

nology strategies or collaborative RD&D to ensure

that critical technologies arrive on time and withcoordinated unding. Technology roadmaps and in-

novation, or as wide a mix as possible o sustain-

able energy supply solutions, should be designed

and implemented. All available technologies help-

ing to reduce GHG emissions should be taken into

consideration, but with an energy-system based on

renewable solutions to as ar an extent as easible. In

coordination with this, a global technological und-

ing mechanism needs to be put in place in order to

secure reliable implementation and diusion o the

technologies.

Governments should, in general, be more ocused

on how major technological changes take place in

society, in order to be able to stimulate this properly.

Real technological change occurs in technological

innovation systems, in joint ventures with institutes

o knowledge, private companies, government insti-

tutions etc. that are embedded in a broad societal

structure.

Governments need to put in place stable, long-term

policy rameworks that ensure stable, long-term in-

vestment environments in which commercial organi-

sations can condently commit to investment in the

technologies and inrastructures required to meet

the targets. These rameworks, which include the -

nancial, legislative, regulatory and market tools thatgovernment uses to incentivise investments, need to

be committed to by all political parties to ensure they

do not change as elected governments change.

Stimulate clean technology

entrepreneurship and innovation

Innovative clean technology business environments

must be stimulated in order to create new local busi-

ness networks and economies. Entrepreneurship

should be promoted and cultivated by implementing

policies that remove or minimize the bureaucratic,

governance, educational, nancial and corporate

cultural barriers. Seed unds and other incentives or

local low-carbon technologies to develop and mature

should be implemented: or example, technologies or

energy eciency, small hydro power plants, biogas,

biomass production, photovoltaic, and geothermal

power.

Governments should encourage and support green

venture capital investments. Special attention should

be taken during economic turn-downs when private

investments tend to become less risk-oriented, and

3. Conditions must be stimulated or engineering solutions

to enhance technological innovation globally

Governments must place themselves in the oreront o stimulating the development o low-

carbon technology. A ramework or international cooperation to drive long-term techno-

logical change, assist in deploying existing technologies, and providing Research, Develop-

ment and Deployment (RD&D) opportunities or uture technologies, must be established.

This will drive the development o national and regional policies.

Technological innovation must be stimulated both through technology push and market pullmechanisms. Focus has primarily been on market push policies such as cap-and-trade, taxes,

and emissions-perormance standards. This is, however, not sucient to pull the develop-

ment through the innovation chain.


18/63



investments in RD&D o new low-carbon technologies

can be set back. It is important that Governments are

prepared or these negative eects, and will have

mechanisms to both stimulate private investments

and channel public unds during these periods.

Web 2.0 low-carbon knowledge

development and diusion

New processes and policies to accelerate the inno-

vation chain fows must be developed. Increasingly,

solutions are coming rom diverse scientic and

engineering disciplines. To be most eective, these

new processes must be open to all, acilitated by the

Internet, as a Web 2.0 low-carbon model. It can be con-

tributed to rom all areas o expertise, and can be en-

hanced by interest groups and engineers. Transmis-

sion o technology rom government laboratories to

private industry must be also simplied, and a more

open fow o inormation across the corporate bar-riers must be promoted. In conjunction, intellectual

property rights (IPR) must be addressed, because

they can hinder the ree-fow o knowledge

The website Energibruket is an initiative to gather

engineers in Sweden or discussions and innovation

on this issue. The site oers a orum or technology-

oriented discussions under headlines like transport

and construction. It is also possible to have an idea

tested with support rom the expertise that has

been associated with Energibruket on issues such

as energy, environment, intellectual property rights

and commercialisation. Many ideas conceived by

engineers are never realised, since they are brought

orward in an environment where they are second-

ary to the core business. An initiative like this oers

an opportunity or such ideas to extend urther down

the line o innovation.

A coordinated eort to diuse technology to and in

developing countries must be ensured.Developing

countries must be an equal stakeholder in interna-

tional collaboration on RD&D, and must have equal

access to new technologies and technological inno-

vation environments. Knowledge-sharing and tech-

nology-transer are imperative in order or the de-

veloping countries to be able to adapt the new clean

technologies, without the need or them to undergo

(to a greater or a lesser degree) the same technologi-

cal evolution route taken by most industrialised

countries.

Emphasis and investment in educating and trainingthe workorce in all advanced energy technologies,

and their deployment, should increase. Sustainable

development and low carbon know-how must be in-

cluded in educational and training programmes as

permeating themes, and connected to the core know-

how in each eld o engineering specialisation. In

addition to basic education and training, urther edu-

cation and training must also be developed so that

the level o competence can be retained and updated

to meet arising needs.

Local condition and bottom up-approaches

The climate technology solutions and policies must

be adapted to local conditions, because one size does

not t all. An essential assumption when developing

international regulations and policies should be that

all countries and regions have dierent conditions

in terms o resources, level o technology, industrial

structure, social and cultural context, nancial capa-

bility, governance and regulatory history. GHG Cost

Abatement Curves and implementation schemes must

be developed to be as nationally-based as possible.

In conclusion, comprehensive top-down strategies

with bottom-up mind-sets and approaches are need-

ed or technological innovation. A global nancial, in-

stitutional and technological ramework on low-car-

bon technological development and diusion must

be established. It is imperative, though, that policy

makers and institutional developers understand that

innovation only occurs rom people to people, and not

through nancial fows or institutional procedures;

the latter are, however, necessary to stimulate inno-

vation and to develop and sustain a strategic ocus.


19/63



Industry approach

Especially in the industry sector there is a need to

increase the awareness o energy savings through the

whole production chain, and the incentives to reduce

the payback times or energy investments. The indus-

try sector companies can be targeted at several levels:

Benchmarking and best practice

knowledge-sharing;

Certication o energy standards or certain

energy-intensive industry sectors, inclu-

ding compulsory external energy audits;

Implementation o industry GHG

emission standards;

Joint ventures between the leading business

companies o the sector and, or example,

scientic organisations, government in-

stitutions, and business associations;

Tax exemption incentives or the most ener-

gy-intensive companies against implemen-

tation o energy saving steps (this has been

done with success in Sweden), and/or

Energy-saving unds, including pub-

lic unds to support energy invest-

ments with longer payback time.

All companies with an annual uel and electricity

consumption above a certain level ought to perorm

an energy inspection and process integration study

at least once every three years, using external, quali-

ty-assured consultants.

For certain energy-intensive industries there should

be a commitment to global industry GHG emission

standards, especially in the most GHG-intensive

industries like power production rom coal plants,

cement industry, metal industry, and electronics/

household products (including end-use energy con-

sumption).

4. Energy efciency is the easiest, smartest and most

inexpensive path towards substantial GHG reductions

The Future Climate project, and many other studies, show that the world is wasting energy

and that a substantial part o the needed GHG reductions can be achieved by using the ener-

gy more wisely, through smarter usage and changing over to higher energy-ecient devices.

In all our main sectors, power, industry, building and transport, there are high energy e-

ciency poteIn several national reports it is assessed that up to 50% GHG reduction can be

met by energy eciency alone.

A Swedish report rom 2009 concludes that Swedens total energy consumption can be redu-

ced by almost 50% by means o control and new technology. Industrial processes need to be

optimised and automation increased, but within many elds a great potential lies in minor

changes o already-available technology. In the housing sector it is largely a matter o im-

proving the existing building stock, but to a large extent the technology is already at hand.

In Denmark the most protable energy savings are in industry. With payback times less than

7,5 years, energy consumption can be reduced by more than 25% beore 2015.


20/63



The industry, particularly SMEs, lack both the skills

to identiy opportunities or energy eciency, and

the qualied personnel needed to implement and

ollow-up the eciency measures. Energy eciency

must be part o all technology development, so ener-

gy eciency know-how and knowledge-sharing must

be part o the expertise possessed by all engineers

and designers in the years to come.

Disposing o used products results in the loss o

all unctional value and embodied energy created

through materials processing and manuacturing.

Signicant energy benets can thereore be achieved

through reuse, re-manuacture, and recycling. In-

crease useul product-lie, and encourage lie exten-

sion and modularity o product components, by ena-

bling replacement o ailed components by products

with signicant levels o energy-intensive materials

and manuacturing. Nevertheless, oten new product

concepts and design, including replacement materials,are necessary or large energy and resource savings.

Consumer approach

The consumer energy labelling system in EU or

household products has proven very eective, and

can be expanded to more product groups and geo-

graphic areas than at present. Energy eciency, as

selection criterion during public procurements, can

also be strong drivers or product manuacturers to

ocus on energy-eciency or the end-user. Another

way o increasing the demand-driven change in prod-

uct energy eciency is by making customers and

end-consumers behave in a more climate-riendly

way in general through, or example, inormation and

awareness campaigns.

Energy-saving unds needed

Coordinated international and national energy-saving

unds should be established, with the objective o

promoting electricity and heat savings in households,

public areas and trade-and-industry by means o in-

ormation, advice and grants. The aim is a coordinated

and cost-eective energy savings input in all sectors.

Subsidies could be granted when binding agreements

on energy management are entered into with individ-

ual companies. The agreements could relate to specic

types o energy and processes and, i applicable, the

training o sta responsible or planning, purchasing

and operation o plants and systems.

Buildings can become net-zero GHG emitters

It is well known and documented by existing tech-

nologies, and with a net positive economy, that new

buildings can already become passive houses or net-

zero GHG emitters. Studies in Germany suggest that

energy use can be reduced by 50% or only a minimal

increase in construction cost. The U.S. Department o

Energy has estimated that by 2050, with advances in

building envelopes, equipment, and systems integra-

tion, it may be possible to achieve up to a 70% reduc-

tion in a buildings energy use, compared with the av-erage energy use in an equivalent building today.

Energy eciency in buildings can be augmented by

energy ecient architecture, highly-insulated build-

ing envelopes, and on-site energy technologies like

solar thermal systems or hot water and air condition-

ing, photovoltaics or distributed sources o renewable

uel combined heat and power. Stricter building codes

and regulations need to be developed to acilitate the

entry o innovative solutions in these areas.

Since the annual new construction in developed

countries is normally 1-3%, there is a need to look

at energy eciency in the existing building stock.

Here, promotion is needed by stepping-up consumer

inormation, providing training, tightening building

regulations and creating incentive schemes aimed at

consumers. Public authorities must show the way by

imposing special requirements on public buildings.

It is estimated that more than 50% o all new build-

ings globally are being constructed in China and In-

dia alone. This highlights the necessity o increased

policy and technological diusion, as mentioned.


21/63



Reinvention o transportation

A signicant reduction in transportation CO2 emis-

sions means that all known tools and technologies

must be brought into play. Transportation must be

reinvented by increasing the diversity o energy

resources that supply transportation; displacing

petroleum consumption through increased system

eciency and use o lower carbon uel alternatives;

and reducing lie-cycle emissions associated withthe electrication o the transportation industry.

This calls or a coordinated strategic action in large

geographic regions, and in the transportation and

energy markets between governments and relevant

corporations.

In order to ully implement this change there is a

need or a multiaceted strategic ocus in the near-,

mid-and long-term perspectives. Advanced battery

and/or other energy storage-power systems or the

adoption o plug-in and electric vehicle technologies

must be developed and deployed. Bio uels should be

adopted in a cost-eective and environmentally re-

sponsible manner. Multiple potential energy carriers,

such as liquid and gaseous uels, and electricity, must

be made available. Lower carbon uels and propul-

sion alternatives across multiple modes o transport

must be utilised, and conventional propulsion sys-

tems must be optimised while developing advanced

propulsion technologies.

Mainly electrifcation o vehicles

Environmentally, electric engines are superior to

combustion propulsion. It has the advantage o zero

emissions (o any gaseous substance) rom zero-

carbon electricity supply and high energy eciency

o more than 90% compared with 20-30% or gasoline

engines and 30-40% or uel cell, hybrid vehicles and

diesel engines.

The ull low-carbon advantage o electricity as an

energy carrier requires low carbon or zero carbon

energy supply. This in turn requires signicant im-

provements to the present electricity grids world-

wide, including intelligent electricity consumption.

In Europe this could mean an integration o the grids

in Europe and North Arica to a smart Super Grid.

Plug-in electric cars and their advanced battery

technologies will enable two-way power fow o grid-

to-vehicle and vehicle-to-grid. The electric vehicles

become extra electricity storage, and thereby act as

a grid reinorcement unction, adding additional eco-

nomic value to vehicle battery systems. Other energy

storage will be o increasing importance to smooth

sustainable power generation, and pumped storage

projects oer a good solution.

A breakthrough or the commercialisation o electric

cars and plug-in hybrids depends upon the develop-

ment in battery technology, which needs development

in higher capacities, aster reload and lower costs. It will

be necessary to exempt electric vehicles rom taxes or

some years still. In the intermediate period beore ull

commercialisation, hybrid vehicles are an option.

5. Clean transportation calls or global action at

multinational corporate and government levels

The Future Climate project shows that the transport sector and its GHG emissions have

a more common structure o issues and solutions than any other sector. While the global

transportation volume will still increase, utmost and expensive eorts are required to in-

crease eciency, shit uels, and make a radical shit to electrical propulsion, especially or

smaller vehicles.


22/63



Further development in the areas o other alterna-

tive uels, such as cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel,

is required to support energy diversity and where

electric propulsion is not (yet) an option. Any use o

bio uels must undergo careul lie cycle assessment

in order to justiy its level o sustainability, includ-

ing GHG reduction potential. Experience with imple-

mentation o alternative uels production policies do

show that tradeos will be inevitable. Comprehen-sive multi-dimensional analyses guide governmental

and industry policies and practices.

Private and/or public transportation

Managing GHG emissions across the transportation

industry will require the management o issues con-

cerning the balance between personal and reight

transportation, and public and/or mass transporta-

tion. Urban structure has a signicant impact on

trac, as well as on the need or energy and energyconsumption. Urban planning, to a high degree, de-

nes the volume o and need or trac. Energy and

trac considerations should be embodied in plan-

ning and assessment procedures. Urban planning

can be used in directing urban structure to be more

close-knit, and also the possibilities or implement-

ing public transport improvement. For example, new

residential areas should be centred around railway

stations and the location o large residential areas,

commerce and shopping acilities in the same local

neighbourhood will be supported. Furthermore, heat-

ing systems can be optimised, so that the dierent

heating orms wil l be used in ways that are most ap-

propriate in terms o overall economics and ecology.

Public transport can be promoted by investing in

the development o automated rail trac in dense-

ly-populated areas. Car-pooling can be promoted

as an alternative. Trac volumes and the energy

consumption o vehicles can be reduced by means

o vehicle taxes based on the distances driven. The

need or work-related commuting can be reduced by

promoting ICT opportunities. Data communications

solutions and available ICT services, including tele-conerence technology, can be applied to signicantly

reduce work travel miles.

Rail has the great advantage that it can be low-carbon

electrically-powered without any new technology.

Moreover, rail is competitive with heavy-vehicle

reight transport and public-short-haul air transport.

The rail network ought also to be developed and im-

proved so that it becomes a real alternative to the car.

Maritime and aviation transportation

Marine transport has a huge energy eciency poten-

tial and options or a shit towards more sustainable

uel. However it aces little or no restrictions on emis-

sions; thus global strategies and policies are needed to

create incentives to harvest these potentials.

The aviation industry can improve energy-eciency

through the use o improved engine and uselage

technology, or example, as well as redesigned fight

patterns to reduce long haul distances (and hence

the uel used to carry cargo). Ultimately bio uels rep-

resent the only technique available to signicantly

reduce aircrat emissions. A modal shit rom short-

haul air to high-speed rail is also desirable.


23/63


Summaries o National Reports

From 7 to 18 December 2009, people rom all over

the world will convene at the United Nations Cli-

mate Change Conerence (COP-15) in Copenhagen,

Denmark, to create a new Global Climate Treaty, by

which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

A general de-carbonation o society calls or major

changes in technologies. A Treaty in Copenhagen

must support this. For this reason, the Associations

o Engineers in the Future Climate project are calling

or a ramework that will support energy savings,

use o existing low carbon technologies, innovation,

and transer o technology.

Engineering Solutions A Climate call from engineers

That global

GHG reductions

of 50 - 85% by 2050

is possible

A need for

appropriate

framework for

joint technology

development

is needed

Commitment

from all countries

to make GHG

reduction plans

to 2050

A substantial part

of GHG reductions

can be achived by

using energy more

wisely

Transnational and

intergovernmental

action in the

transport sector

is necessary

The engineers

emphasize


24/63


Engineering Solutions A Climate call rom engineers

A new Climate Treaty

must include

Commitment to binding but dierenti-

ated targets or all countries, ensuring

that GHG emissions can peak as soon as

possible, and certainly beore 2020.

Commitment to developing national greenhousegas reduction plans towards 2050 beore 2012.

Setting-up an appropriate ramework

o joint technology development, with a

multi-aceted technological approach.

Strengthening nancial support to allow

transer o technology must be receptive

to a variety o relevant technologies.

Commitment to a common eort in the areao transport.

The engineers emphasize

That with available and known technologies it is

possible to make substantial GHG reductions over

the short- and the long-term, to meet the project

target o 50-85% average global reduction by 2050.

That binding targets on national and local

levels are essential to drive development to-

wards reduction o GHG. To achieve the neces-

sary emission reductions, all countries must

participate with national-based solutions.

Energy eciency is the easiest, smartest and

most inexpensive path towards substantial

GHG reductions. The world is wasting energy;

a substantial part o the needed GHG reduc-

tions can be achieved by wiser use o energy.

Binding targets must be supported by a national

commitment rom countries around the world,

to make GHG reduction plans up until 2050. Theplans should address the most polluting sectors

in the country (energy production and distri-

bution, energy eciency, deorestation, trans-

port). The plans should be nished beore 2012.

An appropriate ramework or international

cooperation should be established to encou-

rage long-term technological change, assist in

deploying existing technologies; and provide

RD&D opportunities or uture technologies.

This is needed in order to speed up the pace oinnovation, increase the scale o implemen-

tation, and make sure that all countries have

access to aordable climate technologies.

The transport sector has a more common struc-

ture o issues and solutions than any other sector.

This calls or transnational and intergovern-

mental action. A Climate Treaty should promote

common standards, energy eciency, and also

ensure that bio uels are being adopted in an env-

ironmentally-responsible manner. Emissions rom

international aviation and shipping are substan-

tial sources o emissions and should be addressed

within the ramework o a Copenhagen Treaty.


25/63



Introduction

The core purpose o the Future Climate project has

been to demonstrate a technologically based outline

or a sustainable uture climate through national

climate plans and descriptions o specic promising

climate technologies.

The basic assumption o the project and o the na-tional reports is recognition that green house gas

emissions and their concentration in the atmosphere

must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project

denition o a sustainable level is equivalent to the

best case stabilisation scenario which were pre-

sented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

whereby the global mean temperature is most likely

to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 C.

In practical terms the assessment report states thatin order or this to happen the global GHG emissions

have to peak beore 2015 and the emissions in 2050

must be reduced by 50-85% compared to the emis-

sions o 2000.

The climate plans o the developed countries have

attempted to contribute to this sustainable target

range merely by making domestic reduction sce-

narios.

The climate plans include national scenarios or de-

velopment in, 2015, 2030 and 2050, in GHG emissions

(total and by sector), energy consumption, energy

supply and energy import and export.

Summaries o the 10 national reports3are presented

in the ollowing. The developments o GHG emissions

and energy consumption o these reports are sum-

marized in Table 3.

The ull national reports can be downloaded romThe Future Climate websitewww.utureclimate.ino .

3. The participating associations o Australia and Bulgaria

have not submitted national reports.

Summaries of National Reports

Development in GHG emissionsreductions by 2050 compared to 2007

Development in reduction o total energyconsumption by 2050 compared to 2007

Norway -76 % -30 %

UK -89 % -42 %

India (10% economicgrowth pa scenario)

+103% -

Germany (scenario 1/2/3) - 50 % / - 50 % / -63 % - 33 % / -29 %/ -19 %

Japan - 50 % -

US - -

Finland -74 % +12 %

Ireland -60 % -

Sweden No net emissions -30 %

Denmark -94 % -50 %

Table 3: Future Climate GHG emissions and energy reductions by 2050 or the 10 national climate plans
http://www.futureclimate.info/http://www.futureclimate.info/


26/63




27/63


Summaries o National Reports Norway

Targets

The Norwegian political ambition or GHG emissions is a

reduction o 30 percent prior to 2020 relative to the 1990

levels, and to be climate neutral by 2030. These targetsinclude the use o fexible mechanisms under the Kyoto

protocol, i.e. use o emission-quota trading, joint imple-

mentation, and the Clean Development Mechanism.

The NITO plan is based on a bottom-up perspect ive.

The purpose is to reduce the emissions o GHG to a

sustainable level, dened as the best case scenario

o IPCC, where the increase in global temperature

does not exceed 2C.

Measures

The NITO scenario or reductions in GHG emissions

rom our nearly equally-large sectors is based on:

Fossil energy production: In 2050 NITO pre-

dicts close to zero GHG emissions rom almost-

empty oil wells, and very limited emissions

rom production o natural gas. With renewable

on-shore electric power production it is pos-

sible to substantially reduce GHG emissions

rom production o ossil energy in 2050.

Industry: NITO estimates higher eciency or

Norwegian industry. For large industrial ac-

tivities as a result o new research Carbon

Capture and Storage is expected to reduceprocess-related GHG emissions by 50 %.

Transport: The national transport sector may

be almost independent o ossil uels by 2050,

with gradual increase in the use o electric

energy, new batteries and second generations

o bio-uels. Ships may increasingly use met-

hane as uel, and reduce emissions by new sail

technology. Optimising speed in relation to

goods with dierent urgency will reduce the

speed-related energy consumption o ships. The

emissions rom transport o goods may also

be reduced by transition to electric railway.

Heating, waste and agriculture: Heating, waste-

management and arming will gradually reduce

GHG emissions by 75 percent. The means by

which to do so are heat pumps, bio-energy, and

highly isolated buildings to reduce energy con-

sumption / increased energy eciency. Collec-

tion and ecient use o methane rom landlls

and deposits will also reduce GHG emissions.

Summary of The Climate Plan for Norway

Norway is a nation rich in both renewable and ossil energy. We have large hydropower re-

sources, and electricity accounts or almost 50 per cent o our energy consumption. Most

o our ossil energy is exported, and the utilisation o these resources does not count in the

national emission accounts. However, ossil energy used to produce oil, gasoline, diesel andnatural gas is included in the national accounts. Norwegian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

dened by the Kyoto regulations are 53 Mt CO2 equivalents per year.


28/63



Main Findings

There is great potential over the short term, as well

as towards 2050, to reduce Norwegian GHG emis-

sions. Ecient technology is within reach, and can

be used or business development as well as or the

actual reductions in GHG emissions. In addition, Nor-

way has the potential or large electricity surpluses

that may be exported.

The measures mentioned above result in a scenario

allowing or a 74 percent reduction in domestic GHG

emissions4. Possible uture export o Norwegian

renewable energy arising rom new electric energy

production, and increased energy eciency, is not

included in the Kyoto regime. However, export o re-

newable energy has the potential to contribute to-

wards reduced emissions in the importing countries.

I GHG emissions reductions rom possible uture

export o renewable electric energy were taken into

account in the Norwegian scenario, this may implya possible reduction in Norwegian GHG emissions o

about 95 percent in 2050.

Recommendations

In general, NITO strongly emphasizes the importance

o supporting energy eciency in all sectors o soci-

ety. NITO also strongly advocates improving condi-

tions under which growth o renewable electricity

production may take place.

Fossil Energy Production

New production should, when technology per-

mits, take place rom subsea acilities.

New production should use electricity rom rene-

wable sources.

4. Excluding use o the fexible mechanisms under the Kyoto

protocol.

Industrial Sector

Hydropower and other renewable sources o

energy should be considered as an asset o

great value or uture industry in Norway.

The authorities should hire and educate

Energy Hunters, making them available

ree-o-charge or companies wanting to iden-tiy possible energy eciency projects.

Active energy management with certication

requirement should be mandatory or compa-

nies using more than 50 GWh annually.

Utilize the potential o surplus heat rom the

industry.

Transport

Norwegian industry must have the compe-

tence and production methods to meet the

needs o the new generation o cars.

The Plug-in Hybrid concept must be sup-

ported and given priority by the government.

Production o uel rom Norwegian renewable

biomass must be supported by the government.

The ship owners must be given incenti-

ves to extend their use o Methane.

New sail technology should be used to op-

timize speed and uel consumption, re-

lative to the weather, and the urgency

o the goods being transported.

Inrastructure must be built to accommodate e-

ective transer o heavy-duty transport rom

road, to electric railway and ship.


29/63



Heating, Waste and Agriculture

Norway must adapt and adhere to the

EU target o 20 percent increase in

energy eciency in buildings.

Renovation o old buildings, in accor-

dance with current standards, must

be increased by 4-to-5 times.

All new houses should be built with technology

or Passive Houses by 2020.

Heating systems in public buildings must be

changed to fexible systems that run on energy

rom dierent renewable sources by 2020.

Acknowledgements

With assistance rom the Institute o Transport Eco-

nomics (TI) and the Centre or International Climate

and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO), NITO

has made plans or engineering solutions in Norway.

The methodology is based on status, technologi-

cal ideas, calculation charts and graphics, used to

present sustainable climate scenarios up to 2050.

The Norwegian statistics or energy consumption,and gures or GHG emissions, are collected rom

Low Emission Commission, 2006 where CICERO per-

ormed the unction o secretariat.

NITO would like to thank Rol Hagman (TI) and Knut

H. Alsen (CICERO) or the assistance in making the

plans or engineering solutions in Norway.

NITO would also like to thank the Norwegian engi-

neers who contributed valuable knowledge and opin-

ions to the project, through surveys, dierent gath-erings and working groups.

The tools and calculation charts are being used by

NITO internally, and in the national public debate on

energy and climate.

Norway acts

Population (2008) 4.8 million

Area 324,000 km2

Total GHG emissions (2007) 45 Mt CO2eq.

Future Climate

GHG emissions proposal2015: 40Mt CO2eq.

2030: 25Mt CO2eq.

2050: 10Mt CO2eq.

National Targets 2020: 30% reduction

2050: carbon neutral

0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050

MtCO2-ekv.

Heating, waste and agriculture Transport

Industry Fossil energy production

Figure NITO-1: NITO scenario with 74 per cent domestic

reductions in GHG emission by 2050


30/63


31/63


Summaries o National Reports United Kingdom

Targets

The UK national commitment in support o the Global

Objective o limiting the average global temperature

rise to within the guideline o 2C, is to reduce the

UK GHG emissions to 80% o the 1990 level o 779 Mt

CO2eq. by the year 2050.

The IMechE Future Climate report proposes that the

total UK primary energy supply is targeted to reduce

by at least 48% by 2050 (compared to 2006). The re-maining supply must move to zero-or-low-carbon

sources to achieve a proposed overall 89% reduction

in UK GHG emissions, relative to 2006. This equates

to a 90% reduction in UK GHG emissions relative to

1990 levels. It is so set to refect the degree o over-

planning and over-design necessary in risk manage-

ment to ensure that implementation is robust enough

to meet the project target o an 80% reduction. This

is an important aspect o our plan. A plan conceived

to exactly meet the target inherently carries the risk

that i one technology does not deliver on time, or at

the perormance that was anticipated, then the tar-

get will be missed.

Measures

The 48% reduction in primary energy

supply will be made by

Improvements in vehicle eciency and

a modal shit rom road and short-haul

air, to rail and sea, resulting in a 50% re-

duction in transport energy use.

Signicantly reducing (space) heating demand,

by using much improved thermal insulation and

much improved heating systems. Also, widespread

use o more ecient electrical devices, resul-

ting in a 50% reduction in building energy use.

Improving power generation eciency,

especially to capture both heat and po-

wer rom new-built acilities.

Reducing industrial demand in a continued

shit away rom heavy manuacturing, and ma-

king eciency improvements to reduce energy

consumption in the remaining sectors.

Changes in agriculture leading to less processing

and transport, with more emphasis on local supply.

Reductions in emissions will also be achieved by

Converting transport largely to electric vehicles,

reducing overall transport emissions by 90%.

Switching primary energy supply rom

91% ossil uel to 69% low-carbon or rene-

wable sources (oil and gas use is cut 90% by

2050, and coal use is more than halved).

Developing and using carbon capture and

storage (CCS) or all large-scale ossil-uel

power generation, and ossil-uel inten-

sive process plant, e.g. steel and cement.

Summary of National Reportfrom the Institution of MechanicalEngineers, UK


32/63



Major investment will be required to improve

the electricity distribution grid, set up local

heating networks, and encourage new clean

energy sources. Increased water-pumped and

other electricity storage capacity will be needed

to cope with the inherently greater intermit-

tency o renewable sources. HVDC grid connec-

tions to other EU countries will be signicant

in allowing better management o the grid.

Main Findings and

Recommendations

The plan will require government placing and main-

taining stable long-term policies that create invest-

ment environments in which commercial organisations

can condently commit to invest in the technologies

and inrastructure necessary or meeting the target.

Training skilled people to ll newly-created jobs or

the new green economy will be a major issue requir-

ing national leadership.

Public engagement will be needed to help drive the

change in our eating, ood sourcing, heating and

transport expectations.

Key programmes o work are already underway in

the UK to enable some o the new technologies o

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Electric and Im-

proved Eciency Vehicles, and Smart Metering o

buildings but more initiatives are needed.

CCS, or some alternative technology to allow clean

coal power generation, may be the most crucial tech-

nology in achieving global GHG reduction. This is due

to the widespread availability and low cost o coal,

and its key position in generating energy in many

countries, including China, the USA and Germany.

EU passenger transport emission targets need to be

tightened overall, leading to a target 30 gm/km in 2050,

and emission targets also applying to Freight vehicles.

Greater use o local sea reight should be encouraged to

help to reduce emissions rom road reight transport.

International agreement on reducing power plant

sector emissions would be a major step in advancing

the international reduction o GHG emissions.

The reward is not only a climate under control, but

major business opportunities fowing rom the newtechnologies needed. In essence we need nothing short

o a second industrial revolution. The UK is extremely

well-placed to take advantage o this opportunity.

Acknowledgements

A large number o people rom both the IMechE and

other institutions have ormed a working group and

contributed to this Report. Ater initial Working Group

discussions, the report was assembled by the lead au-thor, Brian Cox, and then subjected to peer review by

other members o the team and by IMechE sta. We

would particularly like to thank Alison Cooke or her

enthusiasm in driving this project orward. Positive UK

Government thinking on Climate Change mitigation

has resulted in many useul documents, which have

been reerred to and acknowledged in the main report.

United Kingdom acts


Area 244,820 km2


Future Climate

GHG emissions proposal

2015: 570 Mt CO2eq.

2030: 257 Mt CO2eq.

2050: 75 Mt CO2eq.

National Targets 2020: 514 Mt CO2eq.

2050: 156 Mt CO2eq.

maximum


33/63



Future Sources o UK Electricity Generation

GW output

capacity2006 2015 2030 2050

Net Imports 1 1 3 10

Hydropower 1 1 1 1

Geothermal 0 0 0 0

Biomass 2 2 9 12

Wind 1 7 27 40

Solar Heat 0 0 1 3

Waste 3 4 6 3

Wave andTidal

0 0 6 11

Photovoltaic 0 0 2 6

Nuclear 10 8 20 25

Coal 26 20 17 11

Gas (e) 50 50 13 5

Total 127

Coal and Gas CCS rom 2030

Imports include solar power rom abroad.

40

60

20

80

100

120

140

2006 20502015 2030

GW output capacity

Gas (e)

Coal

Nuclear

Photovoltaic

Wave and Tidal

Waste

Solar Heat

Wind

Geothermal

Hydropower

Net Imports

0

Figure UK-2: Future Sources o UK Electricity Generation


34/63


35/63


Summaries o National Reports India

Targets

India, being a developing country, has no binding tar-

gets under Kyoto Protocol.

Main fndings

A vision up to the year 2031 is provided by The Govern-

ment o India: thereore the authentic data up to 2031

is provided. Data or year 2050 is only an extrapolation

based on 2031 in BAU scenario. A comparative analysis

and key results, across all the scenarios, are presented

in summary. It also provides deeper insight into the

variations o the fnal energy and end-use consumption

mix, under alternative sets o assumptions.

This project ocuses on clean technologies so, thereore,

technologies or 4 selected sectors are listed:

Carbon dioxide or equivalent emissions rom selected

sectors or the year 2001, in millions o tonnes, are ap-

proximately:

1. Power : 789.00

2. Construc tion : 29.40

3. Transportation : 19.80

4. Agriculture : 32,8081.00

India is the second-largest populated country in the

world, and it is counted under top our emitters in the

world in absolute terms. However, per capita emissions

rank is 137th in world. Currently, globally, per capita

emission (PCE) is 4.48 tonnes CO2 equivalent per year.

Indias PCE is around 1.2 tonnes per year, while the av-

erage o the Annex-1 countries is 10 tonnes.

Energy efciency in all sectors is identifed as the best

approach and cost-efcient method or climate change

mitigation. Clean technologies in all selected sectors

that can be implemented at present or that are in the

R&D stage and will be available within the next few

years, are listed in the project.

Summary of the Climate Plan for India

The purpose o the project Technological Solutions and Climate Plan or India is to develop

the technology-based climate plan or India, to present the sustainable, clean/green tech-

nologies & measures, and the requirements or developing these technologies & measures.

This project also details the implementation o environmentally-riendly technologies in In-dia. The project includes the National Action Plan or Climate Change (NAPCC), and national

goals or climate change mitigation or adaptation.

Technological Solutions and Climate Plan or India is a project supported by The Institu-

tion o Engineers India (IEI), in partnership with The Danish Society o Engineers (IDA) Co-

penhagen, Denmark. Ten other Engineering Associations worked on Technological Solutions

and Climate Plan or their countries.


36/63



The country hopes to continue its efforts to provide

electricity to rural areas, and to eliminate poverty.

The diagrammatic representation o the detailed

energy balance or BAU scenario in 2001 and 2031 is

provided through the Sankey diagrams.

Conclusions & Recommendations

India, being a developing country, does not have

any binding targets under Kyoto Protocol.

40% o the population does not have electri-

city connection, and about 300 million people

live in abject poverty: thereore, the provision

o ood is a priority, whereas implementation

o clean technologies takes a lesser position.

All the growth and development is based on

energy. India cannot cap the emissions, other-

wise its growth process will be crippled.

Coal (6233 PJ)

Coalforpower

Commercialenergysupply(11917PJ)

Nuclear (71 PJ)

Hydro and renewable (294 PJ)

Natural Gas (1049 PJ)

Oil (4240 PJ)

Industry(process and captive)

1296 PJ

Agriculture345 PJ

Commercial123 PJ Domestic

747 PJ


1325 PJ

Transport1385 PJ

Fuel and

oil losses316 PJ


651 PJ

Natural gas

Transport6 PJ

Conversion lossesin power generation

219 PJ

Transmission and distributionlosses of electricity

590 PJ

Agriculture303 PJ

Commercial165 PJ

Domestic287 PJ

Electricity consumption

Industry367 PJ

Transport32 PJ

Electricity

Coking coal forone reudction

837 PJ


1296 PJ

Figure India-1: Sankey diagram or the business-as-usual scenario (2001)


37/63



India will continue its development as per the

current BAU status. Sustainable development

practices can be adopted or sectors, i.e. Power,

Construction, Transportation and Agriculture.

Major steps that can be implemented

or climate change mitigation in develo-

ping and developed countries are:

Use o energy-ecient techno-

logies and equipments

Use o clean & green technologies

Technology transer

Holistic approach or overall

development globally

Energy eciency is a measure that

can be implemented or all liestyles,

as well as in the industrial sector.

Additional nancial requirements may be met

by technology transer or und transer by

the developed countries. Technology trans-

er modulus operandi is still to be nalized.

Coal (49222 PJ)

Coalforpower

Commercialenergysupply(98879PJ)

Nuclear (534 PJ)

Hydro and renewable (1716 PJ)

Natural Gas (5693 PJ)

Oil (31714 PJ)


15758 PJ

Agriculture473 PJ

Commercial492 PJ Domestic

1778 PJ


7875 PJ

Transport18907 PJ

Fuel andoil losses2089 PJ


1287 PJ

Natural gas

Transport6 PJ


2037 PJ

Transmission and distribution

losses of electricity2834 PJ

Agriculture582 PJ

Commercial1395 PJ

Domestic3609 PJ

Electricity consumption

Industry4764 PJ

Transport389 PJ

Electricity

Coking coal forone reudction

5717 PJ


18760 PJ

Figure India-2: Sankey diagram or the business-as-usual scenario (2031)


38/63



Global warming and climate change are global

concerns, and all countries need to work together

on these issues. Thereore a Holistic approach

or worldwide development should be taken into

consideration. Now the developed countries may

stabilize their development (i.e. emissions), while

supporting the developing and less-developed

countries to attain average living status.

India is committed to deviation rom the BAU

trajectories they have provided; this is sup-

ported and enabled by nancing, technology

and capacity-building by developed countries.

>85% reduction (rom 2000 levels) will pro-

vide a high probability o preventing a 2 degree

increase. A global eort is required or this,

and India is in agreement and is committed to

work towards climate change abatement. IPCC

4th

Assessment report also suggests 85% CO2and equivalent gases emission reduction.

Acknowledgements

Experts from Power, Construction, Transport and Ag-

riculture sector provided their expertise and recom-

mended the measures or sustainable development, and

ormulating the Climate Plan For India.

High level technical inputs and guidance provided by

Rear Admiral K.O. Thakre, President, IEI; Cdr A. K. Poo-

thia, Secretary and Director General, IEI; Dr. V. Baktha-

vatsalam, Honorary Chairman cum Visiting Professor,

Centre or Climate Change (CCC), ESCI; Dr. S. Nagabhush-

ana Rao, Director, ESCI; Shri Pradeep Chaturvedi, Chair-

man, Indian Association or the Advancement o Science

(IAAS) and Shri J.K. Mehata, GM, NTPC; Shri H.R.P. Yadav,

Dy. Director, IEI, during the development o this project.

Centre or Climate Change, ESCI, is thankul to all the

experts for their cooperation and immense support

provided during the project.

India acts

Population (2008) 1,028.7 million

Area 3,287,240 km2

Total GHG emissions (2007) 1,164 Mt CO2eq.

Future Climate GHG emissions proposal

High Economic Growth (10%) 2015: 1691 Mt CO2eq.

2030: 2561 Mt CO2eq.

2050: 3427 Mt CO2eq.

Low Economic Growth (6% ) 2015: 1546 Mt CO2eq.

2030: 2043 Mt CO2eq.

2050: 2755 Mt CO2eq.

Based on Prices 2015: 1612 Mt CO2eq.

2030: 2263 Mt CO2eq.

2050: 3187 Mt CO2eq.

National Targets India being a developing

country and do not have

any binding targets under

Kyoto Protocol.


39/63


Summaries o National Reports Germany

Targets

In this VDI study various scenarios were investigat-

ed, regarding which technical possibilities could be

used, and which measures should be taken to reduce

energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% (or even 75%)

rom 2005 up to 2050. The boundary conditions were

chosen by a VDI Committee rom reliable orecasts,

including modest economic growth and a slightly

decreasing population in Germany.

The ollowing technical opportunities by which to

reduce CO2-emissions in Germany today have been

identied:

Eciency measures reducing conversion los-

ses and nal energy consumption (FEC);

Use o locally available biomass in all sectors;

The use o wind and nuclear energy

in the generation o electricity.

Measures and Main Findings

Industry must, in all scenarios, lower its

FEC by 30%, despite a production increase

that will be 180% higher than at present.

Residential and commercial sectors have to re-

duce their ossil energy consumption by more

than 50%. This wi ll be achieved through bet-

ter insulation. The annual energy demand o

existing housing should be lowered to 60kWh/

sqm, which is about 1/3 o current demand.

While personal transportation will remain con-

stant, cargo wil l nearly double by 2050. Never-

theless, transportations FEC has to be reducedby 15%. The CO2 emission o car feets must

be reduced below the 120g/km threshold.

Cost-attractive solutions have to be develo-

ped in order to increase the share o bio uel

and electrical energy or cars, such as 2nd

generation bio uel and battery systems

No signicant reduction in power consumption

is to be expected, despite high saving poten-

tials in industrial drives and household app-

liances. However, nearly all energy eciency

eorts lead to higher power consumption.

The fuctuating input o growing, renewable

power such as wind and photovoltaic has to be

balanced within the EU grid by reliable power

sources such as biomass, ossil and nuclear po-

wer stations. This must also be supported by

storage systems and demand management.

Summary of the VDI Report for Germany


40/63


Summaries o National Reports Germany

Recommendations

The huge challenge o GHG reduction, wit-

hout energy shortage, can only be achieved

during the coming decades by better tech-

nologies and improved engineering soluti-

ons. It requires that all available technolo-

gies supporting this objective in energy sup-

ply and use have to be developed urther.

With the technologies available today, the

cost o CO2 reduction rise very strongly bey-

ond 50%. The VDI thereore recommends to

strongly subsidize energy research, in order to

widen the eld o available technologies, the-

reby battling the expected cost increase.

Subsidizing development and market intro-

duction o new technologies is advocated, but

this should not turn into a continuous sub-sidy o supply, burdening the economy

Measures to minimize the demand or trans-

portation should be investigated, and

how to substitute road transport and lo-

cal air transport with rail transport.

The eorts o GHG reduction must be conside-

red, together with the objectives o security, the

economics o energy supply, environmental and

social compatibility, as well as securing a com-

petitive economy and job situation. Migration

o production is not a viable global solution.

A reduction o GHG emissions beyond 50% can

not be achieved without nuclear energy. The-

reore the present nuclear capacity has to be

maintained. Between 2015 and 2020 decision

can be made about whether building new reac-

tors is needed or whether nuclear power can

be substituted by regenerative sources.

Results o the climatologic research have to

be validated continuously to provide a so-

lid base or ongoing political decisions.

GHG Reduction has to be optimized across borders;

nancial means have to be directed to those coun-

tries where maximum eects can be achieved.

Acknowledgements

This project was elaborated by a VDI committee with

support o the Institute o Energy Research at Jlich

Research Centre.

Thank s are given also to the management o the VDI

e.V. or nancially supporting this project.

Germany acts


Area 357,104 km2


Future ClimateGHG emissions proposal

2015: 6701-750 Mt CO2eq.

2030:4341-600 Mt CO2eq.

2050:2711-400 Mt CO2eq.

Achievable percentages2 2015: 9% - 19%1

2030: 27% - 47%1

2050: 52% - 67%1

1) Values or nuclear power extension2)Basis 826 Mt/a (2005)


41/63


Summaries o National Reports Japan

Targets

The most essential principle in engineering solutions

and recommendations or UN COP 15 would be to do

our best to reduce the emission o carbon dioxide, not

only in Japan but also all over the world. We should

concentrate all our eorts on research to realize

challenging energy technologies; the development

and the wide application o high eciency energy

systems; and the estimation and evaluation o u-

ture improvement o energy eciencies and emerg-ing technologies. Consequently, producing various

kinds o promising energy technologies; innovative

improvement in the energy eciency o the various

energy systems; and reliable estimation o the nan-

cial payback period o energy systems would be our

oremost targets by which to accelerate the preven-

tion eect or global warming.

Measures

In our role as the Academic and Engineering Society

o JSME, we should stress the ollowing important

activities:

To evaluate the technological innovation correctly

in the near uture, we should continue to produce

engineering technological roadmaps (JSME Tech-

nology Roadmaps or Sustainable Society) and

disseminate them all over the world, to promote

the necessary researches o challenging energy

technology, to promote quantitative discussions

o energy usage and CO2 emissions, and to acce-

lerate the prevention eect or global warming.

We should produce the quantitative engine-

ering data o energy usage and CO2 emission

and promote the discussion about the impor-

tance o various activities o our daily lie and

various kinds o engineering industries.

We should produce various kinds o quantitative

estimations, such as economical payback period

o energy technologies; quantitative CO2 emis-

sion reduction; and the amount o energy savingand necessary total budget o energy policy.

Hence, we should contribute to reducing the amount

o energy usage and the CO2 emission as much as

possible. We can do this by disseminating the JSME

Technology Roadmap or Sustainable Society and re-

lated engineering data and economical estimations,

which would be extremely useul measures to provi-

de the engineering solutions and recommendations.

New fndings

The systematic organization o JSME Technology

Roadmaps or Sustainable Society has been produced

over several years by various engineering divisions

o JSME.

Two good results have been obtained in the discus-

sions by combining several technological roadmaps

as the new ndings.

The Strategy of Japan Societyof Mechanical Engineers (JSME)


42/63



Energy Usage and CO2 Emission Reduction or

Automobiles

According to the JSME Technology Roadmaps,

there would be several improvement actors

or the reduction o CO2. Fig.1 shows the specic

strength o materials, and new materials such as

Aramic ber would be useul to reduce the weight

o automobiles. As shown in Fig.2, the thermal e-

ciency o engines has been increased gradually

by many kinds o technological breakthroughs.

Furthermore, the average travelling speed has

been increased by improving trac-control tech-

nology. The total potential amount o CO2 reduc-

tion would be 100Mt/year, and the most eective

method would be increasing the speed o travel.

Energy-Saving or Air-conditioning and Hot Water

Supply, by Utilizing High Eciency Heat Pump

Systems. Fig.3 shows the roadmap o heat pump

hot water supply systems, which demonstrates

that the COP o supplying hot water would have

the value o 5 or higher. By considering the e-

ciency o about 40% o electric power generation,

over twice the total heat released by combustion

could be used or heating and hot water supply, by

utilizing high eciency heat pumps. Thus, the use

o high eciency compression heat pump systems

would be eective or reducing the CO2 emis-

sion. The CO2 reduction potential to replace the

boiler, heater and absorption heat pumps would

become the order o 200Mt/year. This value would

be over 10% o the total CO2 emissions in Japan.

0

20

0

33

43

83

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

120

125

Specifik strenght relative to steel Weight reduction relative to pitch type carbon fibers (%)

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Titanium alloy Super duralumin

Alumine fiber

Polyester resin

Glass fiber

Boron fiber

Pitchtype carbon fiber

Arambi fiberPAN carbon fiber

Nylon fiber

Magnesium alloyMaragi

ngsteel

Carbon nanotube

SteelHigh strength steel

Figure JSME-1: JSME Technological Roadmap or Specifc Strength o Materials


43/63



Recommendations

Our role would be to do our best to promote energy

saving, and reduce CO2 emissions, and thereore we

recommend the ollowing:

By utilizing our engineering specialty we

should produce reliable technology roadmaps

or estimating the uture technological per-ormance; or selecting the uture energy and

environmental policy; and or accelerating

the prevention eect or global warming.

By presenting comprehensible engineering data o

energy usage and CO2 emission in public, we should

promote the quantitative discussion or accele-

rating the reduction o the CO2 emission, which

would assure enjoyable daily activities o mem-

bers o our global community also in the uture.

Japan acts


Area 377,923 km2

Total GHG emissions (2007) 1,371 Mt CO2eq.

Future Climate

GHG emissions proposal

2050: 50%

compared with 2007

Figure JSME-2: JSME Technological Roadmap or

Thermal Efciency o Engines

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1970

Gasoline engines for passenger cars

Diesel engines for passenger cars

2010 2030 2050

Steel pistonfrom aluminummaterial

Hybridgasoline car

High pressure injectionTurbocharging cooled

EGE diesel

Reseach and actualisation ofmechanical, electric and chemical

technology of generating andrecovering thermal and kinetic energy

High precision combustion technologyand emmision control technology

Use of bio fuel

Exhaust catalystfor diesel enginesParticulate traps

Clean NOx catalyst

Engine thermal efficiency (%)

TechnicalBreakthrough

Large diesel engines for vehicles

Improvement of

0.15 points / yr

Prediction

TDIdiesel

Directinjectiondiesel

Turbo-intercooler (TI)


44/63



3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2010

GDP of heat pump unit*

APF (Annual Performance Factor)of hot water supply system

2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy Consumption Efficiency

Technical breakthrough

2007~2010

Development o CO2 rerigerant Heat Pump WaterHeater

4 High-eciency ejector cycles

5Optimum design o high-eciency Small-size DCmotors

6 SiC power dev ic es

9 Vacum heat insulators

13 Utilization o underground heat

2010~2020

1 High-eciency rerigerant circuit design technology

6 High-eciency matrix converter

12 Exhaust heat recovery

10 Load orecast control

13 Using solar heat panels together

1 Advanced rerigerant control technology

2 Further size reduction using surace tension

3 Micro-channel type heat exchangers

4 Power

Future Climate Joint Report

Documents

Transcript of Future Climate Joint Report