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Prof Colin Butler ARC Future Fellow

Climate change and global health

June 11, 2014, U3A

with a focus on food

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Summary

Climate change in the context of Limits to Growth.

Primary, secondary and tertiary health effects.

The climate – food – conflict nexus.

Bias to optimism: FAO, IPCC

There is hope: we must keep within our trillion tonne carbon budget, of which we have used just over half.

Civil disobedience and the “sustainability transition”.

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“Peak health” (?)

President Royal Society 2005-2010

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150

125

100

75

50

25

Extreme events – i.e. climate change?

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World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)

First oil crisis

decline in price due to Green Revolution

oil, speculation, rice panic

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extreme weather events

price plateau: high energy price, climate change, yield limits and other evidence of limits to growth

Index

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Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.

Apparent production cap

2005: Plateau Oil

Production (million barrels/day)

Oil price (US$ per barrel)

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$1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America

3rd carbon age? (M Klare) risk to water, catastrophic climate change

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Green Revolution: 3 main grains

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“Yield plateaus are evident: wheat, maize in China perhaps irrigated maize in the USA., Korea and China for rice” (Ken Cassman)

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Limits to growth

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Mostly biofuels?

in press

CRICOS #00212KAdapted from FAO: 2010 (SOWFaA)

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World fisheries production: wild vs farmed

some used for aquaculture, some as fertiliser

year

aquaculture

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Secondary

Tertiary

Primary

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Heat waves (fewer cold waves) injuries, floods, fires

secondary

primary

tertiary

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Men

tal h

ealt

h

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1. Occupational hazards (Third World – “the South”)

2. Emergency workers – heat stress

3. Elderly, poor, other vulnerable:

1. Acute (eg confusion, cardiac or renal failure)

2. Possible delayed effects (eg via falls)

4. Other effects on apparently fit people?

Climate Council 2014

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Night-time

Day-time‘Heat Island” Effect: Melbourne, Australia

Heatwave, Jan 2009

From: M Loughnan, Monash University

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Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009

Victorian Dept of Health

Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to exacerbation of chronic illness?

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1995 2000 2005 2010

EURussia

Chicago

despair, economic loss, exposure to asbestos,

mould17

deaths 70k 50k600

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vector borne and infectious diseases, other: eg allergies, air pollutants from fires interacting with heat

secondary

primary

tertiary

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Men

tal h

ealt

h

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3650m (13,000 feet)

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Malaria in Papua New Guinea

Old location

New location

courtesy Prof Ivo Mueller:

Institute of Medical Research, PNG

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Overall reduction, but control more difficult in highlands

Malaria: the great recession (Boyd, 1930)

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secondary

primary

tertiaryFood price rises, social turmoil, famine, conflict, population displacement, refugees

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Men

tal h

ealt

h

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Photo-synthetic

activity

20o C 30o C 40o C

Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis

0%

100%

e.g.: Field & Lobell. Environ Res Lett, 2007: Globally averaged estimate: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%.

+2oC

+2oCPlus:•Flood/storm/fire damage•Droughts – range, severity•Pests (climate-sensitive)•Diseases (ditto)

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Nature, 1994

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Rosenzweig & Parry 1994

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Rosenzweig & Parry 1994

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(Source: Easterling et al, 2007)

Modelled major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields and on forestry production by 2050

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World -0.6 to -0.9

Developed countries +2.7 to +9.0

Developing countries -3.3 to -7.2

Southeast Asia -2.5 to -7.8 South Asia -18.2 to -22.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -3.9 to -7.5 Latin America +5.2 to +12.5

From: Tubiello & Fischer, 2007

Range (% change)

Modelled range of climate change impacts on global cereal grain production:Percent change, 1990-to-2080

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Climate change will impair farm production in many poor countries and regions

Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080

Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007

< -25%

> + 25%

0 to 5%

NA

-15 to -5%LESS

MORE

- 5 to 0%

5 to 15%

15 to 25%

-25 to -15%

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64

36

20

80

Percentage change in yields to 2050

-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100

UN Devt Prog, 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE to 2050: MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS

Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst

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31 (2011) Nature, 476, 17.

Link between Indian ocean temperatures, anthropogenic climate change and famine in N.E. Africa

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IPCC 2014

Agriculture chapter

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World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)

First oil crisis

decline in price due to Green Revolution

oil, speculation, rice panic

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extreme events

price plateau: high energy price, climate change, yield limits and other evidence of limits to growth

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IPCC 201434

Doesn’t distinguish between scale of agric’l events; no hint of Limits to Growth

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IPCC 2014

Yield impact of climate trend % per decade35

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IPCC 201436

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IPCC 2014

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IPCC 2014

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Climate change effect

Modelled? Direction Timing

temperature yes varies 1950 on

rainfall partially varies 1990 on

irrigation Partially generally harmful

1990 on

Carbon fertilization effect

Yes (earlier studies

tend more optimistic)

beneficial 1950 on

Butler, 2010

Food and climate models

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effect Modelled? Direction Timing

rainfall intensity and distribution

no varies 2000 on

irrigation partially generally harmful

1990 on

Glacial melting no harmful 2050 onCFE on pests no harmful uncertainCFE & cassava no harmful future

Extreme weather events

no gen harmful increasing

Soil quality no gen harmful 2050 on

Sea level rise no harmful 2050 onMonsoon changes

no harmful uncertain

Gulf stream change

no harmful 2100 on

Conflict no harmful now?

Adverse; the models are

optimistic

Butler, 2010 40

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Fischer et al, 2001 (IIASA)

2080: rain-fed cereal production

ECHAM4 model of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology 41

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A risky tradeoff?

1. Possible temporal mismatch

2. “Effective” demand needed for investment

3. Migration as adaptation limited by state boundaries

4. Excessively optimistic soil and other assumptions? Or too pessimistic?

5. Better penetration of Green Revolution in Africa may be protective.

Butler, 2003 42

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pp 1693–1733

“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”

but why?

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“The dangerous impacts of

climate change can only be

discussed in terms of

nonlinear behavior.’’

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Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

“The difference between 2 and

4 degrees of warming ..

is civilisation’’

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Waterscarcity

Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict,

current/recent

From UK Ministry of Defence

[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]

Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions

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Lelieveld et al, 2012, Climatic Change

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“we all joined the revolution. Right away.”

Was this about the drought? “Of course,” she said, “the drought and unemployment were important in pushing people toward revolution.”

Thomas Friedman, NYT, May 20, 2013

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CRICOS #00212K51Cairo, 2013

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Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank (April 2014)Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a coherent plan in the fight against climate change

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very dangerous

catastrophic

IPCC 2013

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me

my nephew

a baby

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Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (eg vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-

scale migration, economic collapse

Mental health effects:

anxiety, depression, post traumatic stress –

anticipation, experience, memory

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what about adaptation?

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A mirage that threatens to trap us in dry sand?

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Adaptation: dreams vs reality

Declared

• dream crops• dream co-operation• dream geoengineering• dream technology

Revealed

• PR campaigns• militarisation• fortress world

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cyclone shelter, Bangladesh dyke, Netherlands

currently acceptable faces of adaptation

unwanted person camp, Australia

Armed border fence, India - Bangladesh

or a fortress world?

TABOO

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http://www.abc.net.au/tv/changeyourmind/

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Peabody Energy: “Coal Can Help Meet Millennium Goals (Burson-Marsteller)

Mandela: overcoming poverty "is not a task of charity, it is an act of justice".

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Mandela – in favour of economic boycotts over apartheid AND big carbon

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“Exxon Mobil's response to climate change is consummate arrogance”

Bill McKibben, 2014

Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American westWhat does big oil have to say about climate change?

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair

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Adaptation (to peak oil) obvious benefits to air, health; climate mitigation – opposed by big

carbon

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Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)

The Economics of Spaceship Earth

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“the only person who believes in perpetual economic growth is either a

madman or an economist”

or in the current parliament!

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Reduce by 9% per yr

Reduce by 3.7% per yr

Reduce by 5.3% per yr

Peak year(s):

2011

20152020

Year

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2009

Emissions paths: to keep inside (50% chance) +2oC ‘guardrail’Must constrain post-1750 cumulative emissions to 1 trillion tonnes C[Note: Total emissions to date = ~0.55 trillion tC. Current emissions = ~0.10 trillion tC/decade]

10

8

6

4

2

0

Global emissions: Gt of C and CO2 / yr

Other 50% probability scenarios:1.5 trillion tC ~ 2.6oC2.0 trillion tC ~ 3.2oC Allen et al, Nature, 2009

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Joining the dots: creative destruction, stranded assets and dysfunctional lock-ins; technological and social

“canal mania”

“creative destruction” (Schumpeter’s gale)

“coal mania”

“railway mania”

Eroding the social license

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“free-market advocates seem to experience a peculiar loss of faith whenever the subject of the environment comes up” Paul Krugman, 2014 (Nobel Laureate economics)

Subsidies (IMF) (2011)

Fossil fuel $480 billion (0.7% global GDP; 2% govt revenues)

Renewable energy: $88 billion ratio: >5:1

Subsidies (IMF) (2011)

Fossil fuel $2 trillion (factoring in externalities)

Renewable energy: $88 billion; ratio: >20:1

67Hurricane Sandy - $50 billion

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Why We’re in a New Gilded AgePaul Krugman

US political class actively working to restore patrimonial capitalism

Emman

Capital in the Twenty-First Century

Thomas Piketty

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Gini co-efficient (%)

ChinaUS

world

Global Gini data (US$) Butler, 200269

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Ingrained inequality

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Peters’ Projection

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Solar (1975-20072007-10)

NUCLEAR

US$/kwH(2005

dollars)

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urgentInequality, dirty energy, limits to growth & climate change are core

interlinked public health issuessustainability solutions will deliver many co-benefits

need radically new ways of thinking and doing

James Hansonarrested again

“society .. like a sorcerer no longer able to control the powers of the nether world whom he has called up by his spells” (Marx, 1848)

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colin.butler@canberra.edu.auhttp://www.canberra.edu.au/faculties/health/courses/public-health/staff-profiles/butler-colin

www.bodhi.net.auhttps://twitter.com/ColinDavdButler

http://globalchangemusings.blogspot.com.au/http://www.cabi.org/bookshop/book/9781780642659

Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding (ANU E-Press) (co-eds Jane Dixon, Tony Capon)

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Selected publications:Edited booksButler C.D., editor. Climate Change and Global Health CABI, Wallingford, UK: CABI; 2014, 315 pages.Butler C.D. Dixon J., Capon A.G. Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on AJ (Tony) McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding, ANU e-press, Canberra, 2015WHO Technical ReportsMcMichael A.J., Zhou Z-N., Blignaut J., Bradshaw C., Butler C.D. (editor) Gillespie S., Guhl F., Grace D., Sulaiman S.M., Trostle J.A., Utzinger J., Wilcox B.A., Willingham III L., Yang G-J. (2013) Research Priorities for the Environment, Agriculture and Infectious Diseases of Poverty. First report of the World Health Organisation/Special Program on Tropical Diseases Research Thematic Reference Group IV. Technical Report 976  

ArticlesBowles D, Friel S, Butler CD. (2013) Climate change and health in Earth’s future. Earth’s Future 2:60-67Butler CD. (2012) Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world Infectious Diseases Poverty 1:5McMichael A.J. and Butler C.D. (2011) Promoting global population health while constraining the environmental footprint. Ann Rev Public Health 32: 179-197.Butler C.D. (2010) Climate change, crop yields and the future SCN News 38 18-25.Butler C.D. (2010) Lightening our carbon footprint: economics, norms and doctors Med J Australia 192:485-486.Butler C.D., Harley D. (2010) Primary, secondary and tertiary effects of the eco-climate crisis: the medical response Postgrad Med J 86:230-234Butler C.D. (2009) Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: Malthus, limits and environmental challenges Asia Pacific J Clinical Nutrition 18(4) 577-584.Butler C.D. (2009) Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: climate change, phosphorus, ozone and other environmental challenges Asia Pacific J Clinical Nutrition 18(4) 590-597.Bryant L, Carver L, Butler C.D., Anage A. (2009) Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda. Bull World Health Organisation 87: 852-857.Butler C.D. (2005): Peering into the fog: ecologic change, human affairs and the future EcoHealth 2: 17-21.Butler C.D. (2004): Human carrying capacity and human health. Public Library of Science Medicine 1(3) e55: 192-194. McMichael A.J., Butler C.D., Folke C: (2003): New visions for addressing sustainability, Science 302: 1919-1920.Butler C.D. (2000): Inequality, global change and the sustainability of civilisation Global Change Human Health 1(2): 156-172.Butler C.D. (1997): The consumption bomb Medicine, Conflict Survival 13: 209-218.Butler C.D. (1994): Overpopulation, overconsumption and economics Lancet 343: 582-584.