FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts1March 2009 Before-and-After Studies – Examples...
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Transcript of FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts1March 2009 Before-and-After Studies – Examples...
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 1March 2009
Before-and-After Studies – Examples
Session 12 Interstate MAX LRT in Portland
Joe Recker, TriMet Jennifer John, John Parker Consulting
Newark-Elizabeth Rail Link Bill Woodford, AECOM
Charlotte South Corridor LRT Bill Woodford, AECOM
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 2March 2009
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 2March 2009
Before-and-After Study for Interstate MAX LRT in Portland
Key Findings and Lessons Learned
Joe ReckerTriMet
Jennifer JohnJohn Parker Consulting
Presented by Ken CervenkaFTA
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 3March 2009
Project Description Planning began in 1980’s
Bi-state south/north corridor Project salvaged from failed bond
measure for entire corridor 5.8-mile extension (10 new
stations) north from existing 33-mile east-west system Bus service replaced with light rail Traffic lanes replaced with
exclusive transit lanes
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 4March 2009
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 5March 2009
Project Purpose
Provide a faster/more reliable connection to largest employment center in region - downtown Serve commuter market
Majority of trips in/out of the downtown Intercept trips crossing the river through park and ride facilities
and bus transfer points at the northernmost terminus of the route
Other goals included: Maximize effectiveness and efficiency of transit system in older,
urban neighborhood Support land use goals Accommodate future growth
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 6March 2009
Weekday Project Ridership
2005 forecast (completed in 2000) – 13,900 Opened May 2004 for revenue service
Spring 2005 – 11,830 Spring 2007 – 12,900 Spring 2008 – 13,800 Summer 2008– 14,700
Aggregate ridership forecast pretty good Insights are gained from delving deeper into
the forecasts at a more disaggregate level
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 7March 2009
Interstate Max Corridor Average Weekday Ridership
Actual (2005) Compared to 2005 Model Forecast
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Yel
low
Line
Li
ne 5
Li
ne 4
Li
ne 6
Li
ne 8
Li
ne 4
0
Li
ne 8
5
Rid
ers
hip
Model
Actual2005Actual2008
Weekday Corridor Ridership
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 8March 2009
Transit Rider Travel Patterns
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 9March 2009
2005 Trip Purpose Comparison Interstate MAX Only
Model vs. Actual53%
30%
4%
6%
40%
27%
11%
9%
12%
8%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
HBW HBO NHBW NHBNW SCHOOL
Model
Actual
Distribution by Trip Purpose
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 10March 2009
Predicted – Roughly 2% annual growth thru 2025 Actual – Roughly 2% contraction of employment
between planning and project opening (national recession)
Opening year interpolated from horizon year forecast (not a 2005 land use allocation process)
Economic cycles impact land use projections more in the short term than long term
Land Use
2005 Projected
2005 Actual
Absolute Difference
Households 10,587 9,217 -1,370
Employment 104,022 94,851 -9,171
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 11March 2009
Service Levels
Predicted Replace bus with rail Reallocate bus service to rest of N/NE Portland
Actual Modest service changes Generally met expectations
Issues Line coding checks Horizon vs. opening year service planning
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 12March 2009
Understand software Emme2 multipath
assignment
Mode of access Park-and-ride
assumptions Walk connections Transfer rates
Modeling Inputs
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 13March 2009
Overall Ridership By StationInterstate MAX 2005
Model vs. ActualAverage Weekday
Station Ons/Offs
9,12
0
3,57
0
1,92
0
900 1,
370 2,
600
1,45
0
2,74
0
830
900
2,45
0
9,64
7
2,91
6
626 92
2 1,25
3
1,81
9
1,06
2
3,19
9
872
646
636
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Portla
nd C
BD
Rose
Quarte
r TC
Albina
/Miss
issipp
i
Ove
rlook
Presc
ott
Killing
swor
th
Portla
nd B
lvd.
Lom
bard
Kento
n
Delta
Par
k/Van
port
Expo
Cente
r
Stations
On
s/O
ffs
Model
Actual
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 14March 2009
Predicted: heavy transfer activity to MAX trunk line
Actual: long walk at transfer point with 2-3 signalized crossings – fewer transfers
30% fewer transfers and 18% less station activity than forecast
Rose Quarter Transit Center
Interstate MAX
Blue/RedLines
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 15March 2009
Predicted: walk access to dense employment/ medical center TAZ
Actual: indirect, uphill walk connection to that TAZ on narrow sidewalk underneath freeway
67% less station activity than forecasts
Albina/Mississippi Station
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 16March 2009
Predicted: typical urban neighborhood station with mix of walk and transfer access
Household and employment projections not realized
Standard coding conventions utilized in model, did not reflect actual access to the station
75% actual walk access vs. 54% forecasted
Killingsworth Station
½ Mile Buffer
TAZs not connected to station
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 17March 2009
Predicted: main access station for Vancouver residents via park-and-ride and Line 5 bus transfer
Actual: State DOT didn’t allow bus/car access from freeway expected in model
Park-and-ride and buses routed to different station
Transfers occurred at Lombard – 17% more station activity there
Park-and-ride underutilized
Expo Center Station
Anticipated vs. Actual Access Plan
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 18March 2009
Overlook: Actual land use and access modes close to forecast – 2% higher station activity than forecasted
Kenton and Lombard: Unanticipated transfers led to higher actual station activity – 5% and 17% over forecast, respectively
Delta Park/Vanport: Recent direct access to C-Tran transit market – 2008 actual station activity 11% over forecast
Other Stations
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 19March 2009
Line 5 vs. Interstate MAXMAX riders more likely to… Walk further Drive to transit Need fewer transfers to
complete trip Own a car Have higher incomes Make more occasional trips
Number of Blocks Walked
2004 Line 5
2005 Interstate
MAX% Point Change
0 - 1 35% 25% -10%2 - 3 36% 32% -4%4 - 5 18% 19% 0%6 - 7 5% 9% 5%8 - 9 2% 5% 4%10+ 5% 10% 5%Total 100% 100%
Number of Blocks Walked at Origin Interstate Corridor O/D SurveyLine 5 and Interstate MAX Only
Before-versus-After Observations
FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts 20March 2009
Key Takeaways Portland Metro has a good model that has been calibrated with
LRT experience in place Use available tools (GIS, Google Earth, existing
service/operational data, along with understanding of software) for realistic coding conventions in networks
These before and after studies help us understand ridership and aid in forecast assumptions (“unofficial” park-and-riders)
Economic cycles unpredictable – attention to detail in land use forecasts is important
While in the past, opening year was not main focus of modeling/New Starts in terms of reporting process, it is very important