From Vulnerability to Resilience …And the Tools to Get There

Out of Harm’s Way Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

August 1, 2012

Today’s Presentation

• Tour of New Jersey

• Challenges

• Definitions – so we’re all on the same page

• Tools developed by the NJ Coastal Management Office – NOAA CZM Grant

• Coastal Community Vulnerability Assessment – Mapping Protocol (Cook Book)

• Getting to Resilience Questionnaire

• Partnering to get these tools out

Challenges: Coastal Hazards Risks

• Shallow Coastal Flooding

• Nor’easters

• Tropical Storms

• Hurricanes

• Storm Surge

• Sea Level Rise

• Erosion

• Wind

October 1991 Storm Photo Courtesy of NJDEP Coastal Engineering

1. NOAA. 2010. Sea Level Rise Trends. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ 2. Partnership for the Delaware Estuary. 2010. Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary. P. 6 3. IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report

New Jersey SLR Trend: ~ 4 mm/year (~15.8 in/century)1

Delaware Estuary SLR Projections: ~ 19.7 – 59.1 in x 21002

IPCC Global SLR Projections: 7.1 – 23.2 in x 21003

Sea Level Rise (SLR)

Global projections Underestimate local rates of sea level rise!

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Historic Storm Tracks 1850-2008

GIS Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center 9

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However, Many People Don’t Realize What’s Vulnerable Today!

Storm of ‘62, Sea Isle City State of New Jersey

Nor’Ida, Wildwood, NJ Asbury Park Press

1893 Hurricane, Asbury Park Atlantic City Press

Nor’Ida, Seaside Park NJ Coastal Management

1944 Hurricane, LBI NJ State Police Museum

Definitions

RIS

K

VU

LNER

AB

ILIT

Y

RES

ILIE

NC

E

• Risk -- “the type and severity of a hazard and its frequency of occurrence.” [1]

• Vulnerability – “the degree to which a human or natural system is unable to cope with adverse effects.” [2]

• Resilience -- “the ability of a system to respond and recover from disasters.” [3]

[1] US Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. 2007. How Resilient is Your Coastal Community? [2] Worldwatch Institute. 2009. State of the World. [3] S. Cutter (2009)

Geographic Risk

Social Vulnerability

Built Environment

Total Vulnerability

Ecosystem Integrity

Characterizing Vulnerability

Images: NJ.com, NY Times, NYC Audobon

Geographic Vulnerability

Social Vulnerability Infrastructure Vulnerability Environmental Vulnerability

Total Vulnerability

Soil Drainage Soil Runoff

Elevation

LiDAR (2ft Contours)

Flood Frequency

Storm Surge (SLOSH Model)

Geomorphic Region

Characterizing Geographic Vulnerability

Coastal Vulnerability Index

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Identifying Susceptible Land Areas

Environmental Constraint Model

Classifies Variation in Natural Vulnerability

Scalable to Municipal, County, State

Utilizes Existing Data Sources

Building upon Existing Methodologies

Coastal Ecosystem Services

Soil Formation Habitat Pollination

Flood Regulation Freshwater Supply

Nutrient Cycling (N fixing, decomposition)

Waste Filtration (N, P, pathogens)

Aesthetic & Recreation Gas Regulation

Coastal Ecosystem Services

Railroads Power Generation

Roads & Bridges Police Stations

Hospitals

Water Treatment & Transport

Fire Stations Schools

Infrastructure Vulnerability

Households without English Fluency

Individuals Below the Poverty Level

Individuals without a High School Education

Individuals Below 5 Years of Age

Disabled

Individuals Above 65 Years of Age

Housing Units per Sq. Mile

Single Mothers as Head of Household

Population per Sq. Mile

Characterizing Social Vulnerability

CUMULATIVE GEOGRAPHIC

REPRESENTATION OF PHYSICAL RISK

RANK EACH PARAMETER BY RELATIVE RISK

UNION LAYERS

Social Vulnerability Index

Coastal Vulnerability Mapping

Putting it all together

Present Coastal Vulnerability

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Present Storm Surge Models

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Flood Insurance Coverage & Potential Storm Surge Inundation

NFIP DFIRM

100-YEAR FLOOD

500-YEAR FLOOD

FLOODWAY

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Coastal Vulnerability + 0.5 Meter SLR

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Coastal Vulnerability + 1.0 Meter SLR

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Coastal Vulnerability + 1.5 Meters SLR

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‘Getting to Resilience’ Questionnaire

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To provide a forum for local leaders to discuss existing and future opportunities to improve hazard resiliency.

To identify local government education and technical needs.

To emphasize the existing mechanisms that can reduce vulnerability and improve resilience.

‘Getting to Resilience’ Questionnaire

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• Five Sections

–Risk and Vulnerability Assessments

–Public Engagement

–Planning Integration

–Disaster Preparedness and Recovery

–Hazard Mitigation and Implementation

Municipal Master Plan

Local Ordinances

Land/Open Space Conservation

All-Hazards Plan

Stormwater Management

Flood Mitigation Plan

Emergency Operations

Post-Storm Redevelopment Plan

Evacuation Plans

Wetland Restoration

Capital Improvements Plan

Zoning Map

Plan, Ordinance, and Code Checklist

Municipal Master Plan Hazard Mitigation Plan

Floodplain Management Plan

Open Space Plan

Stormwater Management Plan

Emergency Operation Plan Continuity of Operations Plan

Evacuation Plan

Disaster Recovery Plan

Capital Improvements Plan

Economic Development Plan/Strategy

Historic Preservation Plan

Restoration Project Information

Zoning Ordinance

Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance

Subdivision Ordinance

Post-Disaster Redevelopment Ordinance or Plan

Building Code

Other: .

Note: Your community may not have all of the listed documents or they may be elements in other listed plans. The project team already has access to the checked off plans or information

“Getting to Resilience” Questionnaire Coastal Community Climate Adaptation Initiative (CCCAI)

Social Vulnerability

(Census Data by Block or Block

Group)

Infrastructure Vulnerability Environmental Vulnerability

Population Density per sq. mile Evacuation Routes Wetlands

Housing Units per sq. mile Roads and Bridges Forestlands

% Elderly, Age 65+ Railroads Farmland

% Youth, Age 5 and under Emergency Shelters Environmentally Sensitive Lands

% Youth, Age 17 and under Police & Fire Conservation Easements*

% Minorities Nursing Homes* Blue Acres Land*

% Individuals Below the Poverty

Level

Municipal Buildings*

Green Acres Land*

% Households without English

Fluency

Public Works*

Brownfield Sites

% Individuals Without a High School

Education

Schools

Manufacturing Sites

% Disabled Individuals Houses of Worship* Landfills

% Single Parent, Head of Household

Community Center(s) or Meeting Halls*

Drycleaners

% Single Mothers, Head of

Household

Shopping Centers*

Gas Stations

% Properties Built Prior to the NFIP

Libraries, Museums*

Point Source Pollution Surface Water Discharge

% of Housing that are Mobile

Homes

Business District*

Known Contamination Sites

Other: Historic Homes* Other: Parks*

Landmarks*

Dams and Levees

Stormwater Discharge

Other:

GIS Vulnerability Mapping Considerations Coastal Community Climate Adaptation Initiative (CCCAI)

“Getting to Resilience” Questionnaire

PLANS, CODES, & ZONING

Municipal Master Plan

Local Ordinances

Land/Open Space Conservation

All-Hazards Plan

Stormwater Management

Flood Mitigation Plan

Emergency Operations

Post-Storm Redevelopment Plan

Evacuation Plans

Wetland Restoration

Capital Improvement Plan

New Jersey Coastal Management Office Coastal Community Climate Adaptation Initiative 2010 - 2011

Coastal Management and Partner Products

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• Inundation and Vulnerability GIS Data (Pilot Studies Cape May, Cumberland,

and Salem Counties and northern

Monmouth County)

• ‘Cookbook’ of the Mapping Protocol

• ‘Getting to Resilience’ Questionnaire

• Online GTR – CMO,JCNERR,

BBP, SJ

Questions?

Contact Information:

Dorina Frizzera Environmental Scientist I

Dorina.Frizzera@dep.state.nj.us

609-777-3251

http://www.nj.gov/dep/cmp

Thank you Special thanks to Leigh Wood, CSC Fellow to NJCZM Office 2009-2011

And to NOAA, NOS, OCRM for federal funding through CZMA section 309

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