From information, knowledge Paragon Economics, Inc. 2015 World Pork Expo Outlook Seminars Steve R....
-
Upload
myrtle-tate -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of From information, knowledge Paragon Economics, Inc. 2015 World Pork Expo Outlook Seminars Steve R....
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
2015 World Pork ExpoOutlook Seminars
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.Vice-President, Pork Analysis
EMI Analytics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
The gospel according to Yogi . . .
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Key factors for 2015 and beyond PEDv – or lack of it in U.S. hog herd HPAI in U.S. poultry – HUGE hit on layers/eggs, only
meat impact is turkey, chicken is okay -- so far – but represents the largest risk
Beef herd rebuilding is under way – limiting current supplies
Fewer corn acres, more soybean acres – but the issue is, as usual, weather
U.S. consumer demand has been GREAT – will it hold? The U.S. dollar
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Corn/Soybean Meal Outlook• Negative returns for corn and soybeans 2015
• Cash Flow Issues• Cost adjustments likely in 2016
• Rent, Seed, Fertilizer
• Margins Positive Again• EPA Proposed lowering mandate
• Maybe they will actually follow through this time
• Brazil, Argentina, US all record production• 2015 record forecast for US• Expect lower meal prices assuming normal weather
Farm Returns
Ethanol
Soybeans
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Adequate Subsoil Moisture for Most of Midwest. Flooding in some areas.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
US Ethanol Average Profitability Model CBOT Corn and Ethanol
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ce
nts
/Ga
llon
May 2015 Forward Forecast
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
USDA EMI EMIForecast Forecast Forecast
CORN 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
Planted (million acres) 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.6 89.2 88.0
Harvested 84.0 87.4 87.5 83.1 81.7 80.7
Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.4 158.1 171.0 166.8 167.4
Beginning Stocks (mill bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,851 1,851 Production 12,360 10,780 13,829 14,216 13,628 13,509 Imports 29 162 36 25 25 25 Total Supply 13,516 11,932 14,686 15,472 15,504 15,385
Feed and Residual 4,548 4,335 5,036 5,250 5,300 5,300 Food, Seed and Industrial 6,437 6,044 6,501 6,547 6,560 6,450 Ethanol 5,011 4,648 5,134 5,200 5,200 5,150 Total Domestic 10,985 10,379 11,537 11,797 11,860 11,750 Exports 1,543 731 1,917 1,825 1,900 1,950 Total Use 12,527 11,111 13,454 13,622 13,760 13,700 Ending Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,851 1,744 1,685
STOCKS TO USE 7.89% 7.39% 9.16% 13.59% 12.67% 12.30%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Millio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
World China UnitedStates
Argentina Brazil EU 27
World Coarse Grain Ending StocksUSDA
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 Forward Forecast
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
World Coarse Grain Stocks and CBOT Price
2014
R2 = 0.8246
R2 = 0.8868
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
World Coarse Grain Stocks (Excludes China)
CB
OT
4th
QR
T A
vg
. P
ric
e
1990 - 2005 2006 - 2014
2015
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
CBOT Corn Futures
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Do
lla
rs p
er
Bu
sh
el
nearby futures, roll on first of month
May 2015 forward forecast
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
WASDE Forecast continued increase. Will that happen?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
USDA EMI EMIForecast Forecast Forecast
SOYBEANS 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
Planted (million acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 84.6 82.0Harvested 73.8 76.2 76.3 83.1 83.7 81.0Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 39.8 44.0 47.8 46.0 46.2
Beginning Stocks (mill bu.) 215 169 141 92 350 500 Production 3,094 3,034 3,358 3,969 3,850 3,743 Imports 16 36 72 30 30 17 Total Supply 3,325 3,239 3,570 4,091 4,230 4,260
Crushings 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,805 1,825 1,825 Exports 1,360 1,320 1,647 1,800 1,775 1,800 Seed 90 89 98 98 92 90 Residual 2 1 - 38 38 74 Total Use 3,155 3,098 3,478 3,741 3,730 3,789 Ending Stocks 169 141 92 350 500 471
STOCKS TO USE 5.35% 4.54% 2.65% 9.35% 13.40% 12.44%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
CBOT Soybean Meal Futures
120
170
220
270
320
370
420
470
520
570
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Do
lla
rs p
er
To
n
nearby futures, roll on first of month
May 2015 forward forecast
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Domestic demand is strong – export demand has been difficult.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
2014 4-species RPCE: Yr/yr higher since January HUGE positive months in Aug - Dec
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Domestic demand remains strong thru March
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
It appears that preferences have shiftedWill this shift hold?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Animal protein demand has been growing since ‘10
‘14 4-species RPCE +5% vs. ‘13, +9% vs. ‘12
Drivers:o Growing concern about
carbs – LeBron?o Fading fat phobia o New appreciation for
“good” from fats – Big Fat Surprise
o Better view of medical and dietician communities
Can this be sustained?
January’s $67.38 the highest since September ‘90
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Major trend changes for pork
Pork RPCE is now well ahead of 2004 levels which were driven by Atkins diet
November’s $18.91 the highest since December ‘90
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Same trend for beef and chicken
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
’14 per capita consumption was 201 lbsForecast to increase to 210 in ‘15 & ‘16
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
The evidence of strong demand is pricesBeef record in March & April; Pork higher, yr/yr thru
March
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
GDP: Yr/yr growth revised to 2.4% in Q4, 2.7% in Q1Trade was a major drag, consumer spending growing --
some
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
RPDI growth was MUCH better in ‘14Up 1.7% for the year; Feb was revised down but YTD ’15
is +3%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Consumer attitudes have improved – Topping?Both indexes are still near their highest levels since
2007
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Restaurant Performance Index – highest since ‘04
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
And now – “cheap” oil and sub-$2 gas?
Weekly crude oil futures
Monthly RBOB gasolinefutures
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Current price ratios are WAY out of whack!
Pork seasonal strength is closing wholesale gap Retail price data is very “laggy” and won’t reflect featuring – volumes??
…especially at the wholesale level – but they are correcting!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
The biggest demand challenge is EXPORTSBeef has struggled in ‘14; pork struggles began in July ‘14
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Big issue #1: The low-hanging fruit has been picked!
Flood of trade agreements in ‘90s – CFTA, NAFTA, Uruguay
Good number of unilateral agreements in ‘00s – CA/DR, Chile, Colombia, Australia – but running out of new partners
Potential game changer: Trans-Pacific Partnershipo Big impact will be Japan – remove gate price
mechanismo REQUIRES Trade Promotion Authority
TTIP (EU) – still in doubt – and I seriously doubt that it will do us any good as EU are PROFESSIONAL PROTECTIONISTS
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Big issue #2: West Coast port slowdown
Began last July and got “serious” in December-
January
Tentative agreement and back to work on
February 22
New contract ratified May 22
Backlog has been partially cleared many do not
expect activity to be normal until late June
Two issues remain: Flood of product is now at
importing countries’ ports, restoring broken
relationships
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Big issue #3: The U.S. dollar
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Oil and $U.S. are negatively correlated
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Total frozen meat/poultry 20.1% on April 30 Feb-Mar surge due to ports; April due to pork, HPAI
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
On April 30: Pork +20%, Beef +19%, Chicken +32%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Avian Influenza Situation through May 16
o 5.742 mil. turkeys lost– 2.4% of 2014 slaughter = 235 mil.
o Layers – 27.693 mil. total, mostly in IA, MN & WIo Broilers – One flock in CA, one “broiler” breeder
flock in IA??? The Southeast is critical
o Arkansas: #3 for broiler and turkey productiono Eastern TX and OK are not far away!
VERY little actual impact on beef or pork What about this fall?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Locations and types of farms
Source: Steiner Consulting Group
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Location of turkeys – USDA NASS Losses are
subsiding ‘14
Slaughtero MN: 19%o AR: 13%o NC: 12%o IN: 8%o MO: 7%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Location of broilers – USDA NASS ‘14
productiono GA: 15%o AL: 12%o AR: 11%o NC: 9%o MS: 9%
BIG FEAR: Fall migration thru AR, TX, OK
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Location of layers – USDA NASS Losses are
subsiding ‘14
productiono IA: 16%o OH: 9%o IN: 8%o PA: 8%o TX: 5%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Chicken inventories are burdensome!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Broiler flock: Growth rate is increasingYr/yr growth 1.5 to 2.5% July-March; 3% & 3.5% April &
May
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Egg sets, placements are growing steadily
And productiv-ity is finally moving back to long-term norm
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Chicken output is sharply higher YTD On modest slaughter growth and HUGE birds!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Prices: Above 5-yr avg except for leg quarters
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Expectations for chicken GROWTH – 3 to 4% and that may well be LOW!
o Companies are solving problems, big profit incentive
o BIG increase in bird weights will drive production Chicken priceso 2.5-4.0# WOGs -- $101 to $104 rest of ’15 and 1st half of ‘16o Med. B/S Breast -- $162-$165 thru Aug, $155 Sept, $130-
$130 rest of ’15, stronger 1st half of 2016o Whole wings -- $128 to $140 rest of ‘15, sharply lower in ‘16
(as much as 15% lower in Q2)o Leg quarters -- $31 to $34 rest of ’15, $45-$50 1st half of ‘16
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Turkey supplies hit hard by HPAI
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Q4 turkey output still up 4% from ‘14
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Turkey prices mixed due to HPAI & exports
16-24 Toms and 8-15 Hens both $113 - $120 rest of 2015 – some topside risk
4-8 frozen breasts -- $128 - $130 Frozen thigh meat -- $130 - $142 (far
below last year’s $175 MD turkey (frozen) -- $26 to $30
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
The key for beef growth is WEATHER!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Beef: Unprecedented cow/calf profits!But will ‘15 be this good? Feeders are down $30+
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
But short term – Feeder cattle supplies are still tight
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Fed cattle supplies still VERY tight
2014 2015 ActualEsti-
mate*Differ-ence
On-Feed May 1 10554 10,640 100.8 101.7 -0.9Placed in April 1623 1,548 95.4 102.4 -7.0Marketed in April 1778 1,639 92.2 92.4 -0.2Source: USDA NASS, *Urner Barry survey, average responses
USDA Cattle on Feed Report -- May 2015Thous. Hd. 2015 as pct. of 2014
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Cattle slaughter was down 10-12% in March-AprilHas increased some in May – but weights have filled the gap
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
U.S. beef imports: Up 31% in ‘14, 47% YTDBig gain WAS Australia @ +73%, +96%; NZ is +28 in ‘15
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Beef consumption/supply -3.7% in ‘14 Down another 0.5% this year and another 1.7% in 2016!
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Cutouts and cattle prices will stay near records
We expect a normal seasonal decline this summer on higher slaughter Short April placements are bullish for fall prices Choice cutout $240-$250 range this summer, challenging record highs
this fall
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Cattle continue to get better!
But Choice-grade premium is still “normal”
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
“The Story” on beef is RECORD middle meats!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Cattle and beef summary . . . Growth – but characteristically slow
o Biology, producer age, capital cost are all limiting factors
o Growth means tighter near term supply HIGH prices through 2015 and 2016 will provide
oppor-tunities for competitors Winter futures selloff was technicals – not
supported by product or cattle Question: Long-term impacts of VERY HIGH prices
on beef consumers?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Exports have been soft – prices, $, ports, etc.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Big factor has been EU pork displaced from Russia
40,000 tonnes of pork had to find a home!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Key Markets: Mexico a clear #1, Japan #1 for value 2014 was a TOUGH
yearo Russia: +495% (but only
37% as large as in ‘13)o Ch/HK: -30%o Japan: -8%o Canada: -6%
2015 has been mixedo Ch/HK: -72%, Japan -20%o Mexico is UP 12%o Korea is UP 43%o Canada is UP 2%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Hog costs are MUCH improved, price rally = PROFITS!
Normal weather: Even lower (upper $60s) in ‘16
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Where are the hogs coming from and how long will they
be coming?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Good news-or bad: PEDv losses much smaller
New high wk. of 3/15 at 161 vs. 291 last year Many are “monitoring” and at G/F sites – NOT MUCH DEATH LOSS
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Key development: Few sow herd breaks
Data from 746 sow farm, 18 of 19 large systems reporting, 2.1 million sows! Worst weeks in ‘15: 9 sow herds broke in two week in late February Anecdotal: MUCH smaller piglet losses even on farms that broke this year!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
PRRS was much quieter in ‘13-’14 – and now
U.M.’s PRRS sample does not cover N.C. where 174 strain is causing significant losses in February-April
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Hogs & Pigs report: Big market hog supply But growth is slowing – bullish for defered contracts
Inventories on March 1
All hogs and pigs 61494 65934 107.2 106.8 0.4Kept for breeding 5851 5982 102.2 103.5 -1.3
Kept for marketing 55643 59953 107.7 107.2 0.5Under 50 lbs. 17336 18959 109.4 108.6 0.8
50-119 lbs. 15487 16509 106.6 106.8 -0.2
120-179 lbs. 12538 13290 106.0 106.1 -0.1180 lbs. and over 10281 11195 108.9 107.0 1.9
FarrowingsDec-Feb sows farrowed 2,763 2829 102.4 103.7 -1.3
Mar-May Intentions 2,810 2870 102.1 103.1 -1.0
June-Aug Intentions 2,991 2927 97.9 102.7 -4.8
Dec-Feb Pig Crop 26,326 28758 109.2 109.2 0.0
Dec-Feb pigs saved per litter 9.53 10.17 106.7 105.3 1.4
*Thousand head ** Thousand Litters 1Source: Urner Barry
Category 2014 2015'15 as Pct of
'14
Pre-Report
Est's1
Actual minus Est.
USDA QUARTERLY HOGS & PIGS REPORTMarch 27, 2015
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Productivity measures are critical for ‘15!
Implied farrowing rates- Mar-May rate is equal to past
two years – Low?- Jun-Aug intentions down 2.1%
yr/yr is a reflection of last year’s surge – re-breeds of lost litters
- June-Aug rate is reasonable
Other farrowing rate issues:- Problems in post-PEDv
herds?- Sow herd ages (parity
structure) were/are out of whack due to slow sow turnover in 2014
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Will these changes happen? Yr/yr litter growth will slow
sharplyo Dec-Feb was +6.7% – exactly
what we said in Dec if PEDv losses were zero
o Mar-May is +5.7% due to last year
o But Jun-Aug will be only about +2% yr/yr
Back on the 2%/yr growth trend – with a lost year
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
December slaughter forecasts Too low thru Mar. but then similar to ‘13 the rest of 2015
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
March H&P: BIG NUMBERS summer and fallBut Jun-Aug crop EQUAL to this year – and Dec-Feb
slaughter
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Weights are now yr/yr lower
Weight reduction vs. year ago was a big reason for higher-than-expected slaughter in Q1-- ~2/3 of the total Q1 change
Weights have been stable for 8 weeks after rapid decline but will fall further – seasonal pattern
Normal seasonal: 208 in July – down 3% yr/yr
will REDUCE ‘15 prod by 1.5 to 2%, maybe more
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
2014 production ended down only 1.4%…but is up 6.8% YTD, 8.2% last week
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Slaughter forecasts from March H&P
Q1-Q3 revised higher, Q4 revised lower
Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge
2013 Q1 27.870 -0.8%
Q2 26.778 0.4%
Q3 27.668 -1.1%
Q4 29.808 0.8%
Year 112.124 -1.0%
2014 Q1 27.580 -1.0% 27.428 -1.6% 27.214 -2.4% 27.320 -2.0% 27.134 -2.6%
Q2 25.420 -5.1% 25.787 -3.7% 25.572 -4.5% 25.020 -6.6% 25.574 -4.5%
Q3 26.459 -4.4% 26.340 -4.8% 26.173 -5.4% 25.520 -7.8% 25.554 -7.6%
Q4 28.930 -2.9% 28.795 -3.4% 28.826 -3.3% 28.912 -3.0% 28.617 -4.0%
Year* 107.192 -4.4% 107.057 -4.5% 107.088 -4.5% 107.174 -4.4% 106.879 -4.7%
2015 Q1 28.721 5.8% 28.670 28.690 5.7% 28.670 5.7% 28.670 5.7%
Q2 27.238 6.5% 27.185 6.3% 27.358 7.0% 27.236 6.5%
Q3 27.898 9.2% 27.854 9.0% 27.738 8.5% 27.905 9.2%
Q4 29.800 4.1% 30.448 6.4% 30.585 6.9% 29.762 4.0%
Year 113.657 6.3% 114.158 6.8% 114.371 7.0% 113.573 6.3%
2016 Q1 28.928 0.9% 29.645 3.4% 29.845 4.1%Red figures are analysts' last FORECAST for the given quarter (Q1 done in Dec, Q2 done in Mar, etc.) 3/30/15
Blue figures are estimated using USDA data *Annual total uses actuals to-date plus forecasts for the rest of the year.
Mizzou ISU LMIC Paragon ACTUALMarch 2015 Hogs & Pigs -- Commercial Slaughter Forecasts
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Price forecasts – I’m the bull of the group!
Mizzou ISU LMIC Paragon CME
Producer-Sold Net Price, All
Methods
Ia-Mn Producer-Sold
Neg'd Base
National Wtd Avg. Base Price
National Net Neg'd Price,
Wtd. Avg.
CME Lean Hog Futures/Index
2013 Q1 83.53 80.63 81.08 82.73 83.34Q2 91.80 89.30 89.32 90.83 90.66Q3 97.90 95.58 95.25 98.00 98.98Q4 84.99 81.28 82.98 85.26 83.93Year 89.56 86.70 87.16 89.21 89.23
2014 Q1 93.10 93.10 91.34 93.80 94.91Q2 113.54 115.36 111.61 116.83 117.48Q3 111.84 111.77 109.63 114.25 115.70Q4 91.83 90.49 90.08 91.41 91.85Year 102.23 101.68 100.31 102.95 104.99
2015 Q1 66.50 64.10 68.95 70.82 68.59Q2 70 - 74 68 - 73 70 - 74 74 - 78 75.93Q3 70 - 74 69 - 74 70 - 75 78 - 82 81.17Q4 64 - 68 61 - 66 60 - 66 70 - 74 70.93Year 68 - 72 66 - 69 67 - 71 73 - 76 74.15
2016 Q1 64 - 69 62 - 69 70 - 74 71.33Blue figures are estimated using USDA data 6/1/15
March 2015 Hogs & Pigs -- Price Forecasts
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Packers aren’t enjoying this much either
Big factor is drop value – down by over 40% since end of July Lower drop value has hurt hog bids – they are part of the
cutout-to-live computation by packers
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Pork stocks are a problem – ports, output3/31 picnics (+23), butts (+28), trim (+52),
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
2015 price forecasts: 3-10% below 2013
Same is true for cutout value – normal summer rally from here would put it near $100
Cutout has pulled hogs higher – likely will eclipse $90
…and very near the 5-year averages
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
“Retail” cut are at or above 5-year averages
…and even better in the case of ribs which did not rise on PEDv scare last year -- BIG stocks!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
“Processing” cuts have improved, but still lag retail cuts
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Key pork cuts
Item June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Hogs, Prod-sold, Net 84 84 83 78 74 72
USDA Cutout 90 92 94 88 85 82
1/4" Trim Loins 126 127 130 122 118 110
1/4" Trim Butts 135 130 124 119 112 111
20-23 Hams 72 78 80 84 84 82
13-17 Derind Belly 123 130 134 120 112 104
42CL Trim 40 42 45 40 33 31
72CL Trim 75 80 76 68 66 60
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Risks – and some are reality MCOOL retaliatory tariffs Major export disruption – with a capital D! Weather – always a concern in spring PEDv impact this coming winter – immunity levels??? Demand weakening
o Domestic: Newly positive preferences continue?o Exports: World economy, strong $U.S.
How much expansion in pigs and chicken? Hogs: Packing capacity – New plant in ’17
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Questions and Discussion?