Meyer - Pork Industry Outlook - Vita Plus€¦ · From information, knowledge Paragon Economics,...
Transcript of Meyer - Pork Industry Outlook - Vita Plus€¦ · From information, knowledge Paragon Economics,...
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.Paragon Economics, Inc.
Vita Plus Swine Summit – March 2010
Pork Industry Situation and Outlook
From information, knowledge
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DEMAND
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Have we found the saturation point for meat?
U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTIONPer Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
0
50
100
150
200
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Pounds
Turkey
TotalChicken
Pork
Beef
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
’09 meat demand was a mixed bag . . .
U.S. CONSUMER DEMAND INDEXES
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Index, '85=100
BroilersChoice BeefPork
Source: University of Missouri
January-December '09:Beef: Down 2.7%Pork: Up 3.1%
Broilers: Down 3.2%
From information, knowledge
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Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Percent Change
E-E-0101/29/10
The economy IS recovering . . .
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Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
TOTAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOMEQuarterly
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Thou. Dollars
CurrentDollars
Real2005Dollars
E-E-0201/29/10
DPI is expected to get back to ’07 level in ‘10
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Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
PERSONAL SAVINGS AS A PERCENT OF DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
Current Dollars, Quarterly
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Percent
02/08/10
But people are saving MUCH MORE!!!
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NRA’s December RPI was best in 22 mos. . . .. . . fell 0.3 in January, still shows contraction
National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance IndexValues Greater than 100 = Expansion; Values Less than 100 = Contraction
From information, knowledge
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Remarkably strong 2009 exports . . .. . . Can 2010 see a 7-9% increase?
U.S. PORK EXPORTS - MONTHLY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Mil. lbs. carc.
U.S. Pork Exports
Exports '04-'07 Trend
December '09:+16.5% vs. 2008+20.2% vs. 2007
For all of 2009:+6.2% from '04 to '07 Trend
From information, knowledge
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Exports off to a slow start in 2010
U S PORK EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
200220240260280300320340360380400
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
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$US is a key factor in exports . . . . . . EU situation (Portugal) isn’t helping at all!
From information, knowledge
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CHICKEN
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Broiler hatchery flock is up 1% from ‘08 . . . . . . but down 6.3% from Dec ‘07
BROILER HATCHERY FLOCK
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Thousand Hens
Smallest flock since Sept '97 at 52.345
million
From information, knowledge
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Egg sets are 0.8% higher YTD . . .. . . After -2.8% in ’08 and -4.4% in ‘09
WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
220,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thousand
2010
2009
Average '04-'08
y
YTD 2009: -5.9%
From information, knowledge
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’10 YTD broiler slaughter: UP 2.3% vs. ’09 . . . . . .-2% from ’08 but still 2.6% higher than ‘07
U.S. FI BROILER SLAUGHTER, WEEKLY
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thous. Hd.
2010
2008
2009
Avg. '03-'07
2009: -3.3%
From information, knowledge
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Broiler production is up 3.3% YTD
FI BROILER PRODUCTION, WEEKLY
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
950.00
1000.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mil. lbs. RTC
2010
2009
Avg. '04-'08YTD 2010: +3.3%
From information, knowledge
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Record exports in ’09 . . .
U S BROILER EXPORTSAs a Percentage of Broiler Production, RTC, Annual
0
5
10
15
20
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Percent
. . . But a decline is forecast in ‘10
From information, knowledge
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And ’10 is off to a lousy start – Russia!
U S BROILER EXPORTSRTC Weight, Monthly
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
From information, knowledge
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But wholesale broiler prices are up sharply
BROILER PRICES12-City Composite, Weekly
68
73
78
83
88
93
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
. . . And will rise more -- beef and pork!
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CATTLE AND BEEF
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COF: March 1 down 3.2% from ‘09. . . . . . And expect more of this all year
CATTLE ON FEEDUS Total, Monthly
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
Avg.2004-2008
2009
2010
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HUGE losses since ’07 but profits in January
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
60
65
70
75
8085
90
95
100
105
110
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$ Per Cwt
SteerPrice
Breakeven
ProjectedBreakeven
From information, knowledge
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Losses in ’08 & ’09 have reduced cow herd
COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
$ Per Cow
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mil. Head
Cow-CalfReturns
CattleInventoryJan 1
From information, knowledge
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Jan ’10: Smallest beef cow herd since 1963
JULY 1 COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Mil. Head
Beef Cows
Dairy Cows
From information, knowledge
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2009: Smallest calf crop since 1950
CALF CROPU.S., Annual
30
35
40
45
50
55
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Mil. Head
From information, knowledge
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Cattle slaughter as much as 6% higher . . . . . . But YTD now stands at +1.9%
U.S. FI CATTLE SLAUGHTER, WEEKLY
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thous. hd.
2009
2010
Average, '04-'08
From information, knowledge
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Str/Hfr surge has pulled weights down 2% . .. . . Over 20 lbs/head less carcass beef
FI CATTLE CARCASS WEIGHTS
720
730
740
750
760
770
780
790
800
810
820
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Pounds
200920082010Avg. '0s-'06
From information, knowledge
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Choice cutout at $150 – first time since 4/09
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
From information, knowledge
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Lower weights have helped rally prices . . .
CHOICE STEER PRICE, 5-MKT. AVG.
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
J F M A M J J A S O N D
$/cwt carcass
Avg '04-'082009
2010
. . . To their highest level since Sept 2008
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The problem for beef is still MIDDLE meats
WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICESBoneless, Light, Weekly
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICESBoneless 0x1, Weekly
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICESMusl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150JA
N
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Lower value (mainly retail) cuts are strongerWHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES
Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES18-33 Pounds, Weekly
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 90% Lean, Weekly
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 50% Lean, Weekly
35
45
55
65
75
85
95JA
N
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
PORK AND HOGS
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COSTS ARE STILL THE ISSUE!
From information, knowledge
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Even a record corn crop has been difficult . . .
U S ANNUAL CORN PRODUCTIONCrop Year
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Bil. Bushels
. . . Delayed harvest, quality issues
From information, knowledge
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Corn usage for ethanol up to 4.3 bil. bu. . . .. . . +17% vs. ’09; +300 mil. bu. more in ‘11
U.S. CORN PRODUCTION & USAGE BY CATEGORY
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Usage - Mil. bu.
EthanolFSI-Non EthanolFeed & ResidualExports
USDA Forecast, Feb. 2010
From information, knowledge
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RFS2 announcement from EPA
No change in the corn ethanol number –still 12 billion gallons in 2010Main Issue: Corn is now a more certain part of the Renewable Fuel Standard- Recalculation of GHG reduction to 21% vs.
2005 gasoline baseline- Smaller impact of indirect land use change
(ILUC) due to new U.S. yields and using 120 countries instead of 40
- Suspicion of scientific gerrymandering but . .
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Ethanol margins have turned negative again
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Cash corn: Lower than ’08 but still pricey . . . . . Still near midpoint of new trading range
CASH CORN PRICE, OMAHA, WEEKLY
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/bu.
Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Feed costs at lowest levels since 2007
FEED COST INDEX -- CORN-SOY COST, 16% CR. PROTEIN DIET
50
100
150
200
250
300
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/Ton
ActualPredicted July 1, 2008Predicted June 11, 2009Predicted September 28, 2009Predicted March 22, 2010
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Production costs are creeping higher . . .. . . +25% from historical levels through 2010
ACTUAL & PREDICTED HOG PRODUCTION COSTS*
4045
50
55
60
65
7075
80
85
90
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/cwt carcass
Actual Costs per ISU
Predicted/Forecast Costs - Carcass
*Based on relationsip between ISU Estimated Costs & Returns data and historic Omaha corn and Decatur soybean meal prices
3/22/10
Average Cost, 1999-2006: $52.76/cwt
Average Cost thru Dec '10= $65.88/cwt carcass
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Summer LH Futures are all near $82 now
Showing some “topping” signs?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Historical perspective of implied cash prices
U.S. HOG PRICES, WEEKLY
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
$/cwt carc.
Wtd. Avg. Net Price, U.S Wtd. Avg. Base Price, U.S.Pork Cutout Value, 51-52% Lean CME LH FuturesFutures-Implied WCB 51-52% Hog Price
3/22/10
$78.80 Average LH Futures thru Dec '10 =
From information, knowledge
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Can LOCK IN OVER $13.50/HEAD FOR 2010 . . . . . . Losses in Jan, Nov and Dec ONLY!
ACTUAL & PREDICTED HOG PRODUCTION COSTS* AND PRICES
102030405060708090
100
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/cwt carcassActual Costs per ISUPredicted/Forecast Costs - CarcassCash Hog PriceFutures-Implied IA-MN Price
*Based on relationsip between ISU Estimated Costs & Returns data and historic Omaha corn and Decatur soybean meal prices
3/22/10
Forecast PROFITS,Feb '10 thru Dec '10
$13.72/head
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Frozen stocks among lowest since ’04, so . . .. . . 13% less meat and poultry 2/28 vs. yr. ago
MEAT IN COLD STORAGEMillion Lbs., Product Weight
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
Beef Pork Chicken Turkey Total Meat
Beef, Pork, Chicken Total Meat and Turkey
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Dec report: Supplies will be lower . . .
Category 2008 20092009 as Pct
of 2008Pre-Report Estimates
Actual - Estimate
Inventories on December 11
All hogs and pigs 67,148 65,807 98.0 97.6 0.4Kept for breeding 6,062 5,850 96.5 96.6 -0.1Kept for market 61,087 59,957 98.2 97.7 0.5
Under 50 lbs. 19,428 19,085 98.2 98.1 0.150-119 lbs. 17,396 17,062 98.1 97.9 0.2120-179 lbs. 12,731 12,529 98.4 97.7 0.7180 lbs. and over 11,533 11,282 97.8 97.7 0.1
Farrowings2
Sep-Nov sows farrowed 3,028 2,974 98.2 96.9 1.3 Dec-Feb Intentions 3,011 2,954 98.1 96.8 1.3 Mar-May Intentions 3,018 2,935 97.2 97.0 0.2Sep-Nov Pig Crop1 28,771 28,833 100.2 98.8 1.4Sep-Nov pigs saved per litter 9.50 9.70 102.1 101.9 0.21Thousand head 2Thousand litters
USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ReportDecember 30, 2009
. . . But not by a lot
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
U.S. herd reduction sped up a bit in Dec . . .. . . Jan 1 Canadian herd down only 4.3%???
SWINE BREEDING HERDS -- US & Canada
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Pct Chnge, Yr-YrCanadaU.S.Can-Am
Canada January 2010 -- Down 4.3%
U.S. December 2009 -- Down 3.5%
y
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Can BH: At odds with farrowings & pig cropU.S. & CANADIAN FARROWINGS
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pct. Change
Canadian Farrowings
U.S Farrowings
Total Can-Am
U.S. & CANADIAN PIG CROPS
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pct Chnge
Can Pig Crop
U.S. Pig Crop
Total Pig Crop
Both are at -7.8% for Oct-Dec
•Sows being held for buyout?
•A miscount by Stats Canada?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
U.S. sow slaughter plunged to 53k/wk. . . .. . . weather, profits – but has rebounded
U.S. SOW SLAUGHTER
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thousand Hd.
2009
2010
Avg. '04-'08
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Economics Works!!!!!
NATIONAL, 500# & UP SOWS, NEG'D BASE
10152025303540455055606570
J F M A M J J A S O N D
$/cwt liveAvg. '04-'0820092010
. . . Record sow prices = more sows!
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Dec H&P: ’10 slaughter only -1.5% from ‘09 . . . . . . Dec-Feb: -3.9% vs. yr. ago & -2% vs report
FI HOG SLAUGHTER, WEEKLY
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thous. Head
Actual 09Pred '09Actual 10Pred '10
Based on USDA Hogs & Pigs Report, December '09
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Weights reflect performance challenges . .. . . Now running only 1# lower than last year
FI CARCASS WEIGHTS, HOGS
192
194
196
198
200
202
204
206
208
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Pounds
200820092010Avg '04-'08
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
YTD ’10 production is -4.3% vs. ‘09 . . .. . . But was virtually even with ‘09 last week
FI PORK PRODUCTION, WEEKLY
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mil. lbs. carc.
2009
2008
2010
Avg '04-'08
YTD 2010: -4.3%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Lower supplies have driven cutout value . . .. . . Will that remain? Can demand carry it?
51-52% LEAN, PORK CUTOUT VALUE
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D
$/cwt carcass
20082009Avg. '04-'082010
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Hog prices have followed cutout value . . . . . . Highest since Oct 2008 last week!
NATIONAL WTD. AVG. NET PRICEALL PURCHASE METHODS
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
J F M A M J J A S O N D
$/cwt carcass
200820092010Avg '04-'08
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Supply forecasts w/ revisions from LMIC
Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge
2008 Year 116.452 6.7%
2009 Q1 28.488 -3.8% 28.488 -3.8% 28.488 -3.8% 28.488 -3.8%
Q2 27.063 -3.1% 27.063 -3.1% 27.063 -3.1% 27.063 -3.1%Q3 28.419 -1.0% 28.419 -1.0% 28.419 -1.0% 28.419 -1.0%
Q4 29.613 -1.8% 29.613 -1.0% 29.613 -2.0% 29.613 -2.4%
Year 113.583 -2.5% 113.583 -2.5% 113.583 -2.5% 113.583 -2.5%
2010 Q1 27.775 -2.5% 28.203 -1.0% 27.754 -2.6% 28.422 -0.2%
Q2 26.520 -2.0% 27.776 -2.5% 26.742 -1.2% 26.706 -1.3%
Q3 27.850 -2.0% 28.061 -1.5% 28.123 -1.0% 27.784 -2.2%
Q4 28.900 -2.4% 27.776 -2.5% 29.281 -1.1% 28.916 -2.4%
Year 111.045 -2.2% 111.815 -1.6% 111.900 -1.5% 111.828 -1.5%Green figures are actual data from USDA. 3/2/10
December 2009 Commercial Slaughter ForecastsMizzou LMIC MeyerISU
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Price forecasts – Look at futures!
Missouri ISU LMIC Meyer CME
51-52% Lean, Live1
Ia-S. Mn. Live Price1
National Wtd Avg. Base Price
National Net Neg'd Price, Wtd. Avg.
CME Lean Hog Futures
3/9/102009 Q1 56.15 56.80 58.11 57.22 $58.14**
Q2 57.67 58.48 59.45 58.18 $59.03**Q3 53.84 58.93 54.01 52.39 $54.18**Q4 53.95* 53.85* 56.61* 55.54* $56.60**Year 55.95* 57.04* 57.05* 55.83* $56.98**
2010 Q1 59 - 63 62 - 66 56 - 59 58 - 62 69.28**Q2 63 - 67 70 - 74 61 - 64 68 - 72 77.74Q3 66 - 70 69 - 73 65 - 68 66 - 70 79.80Q4 61 - 62 64 - 68 63 - 67 60 - 64 70.25Year 62 - 66 66 - 70 61 - 65 63 - 67 74.27
1Converted to carcass using a yield of 75% *Partial USDA data **Average of CME Lean Hog Index
December 2009 Hogs & Pigs Price Forecasts
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Today’s Hogs and Pigs Report
Expect some revisions of Dec 1 market inventories – especially the mid-weight categoriesAverage Trade Estimates – vs. year ago- Breeding Herd -- 97.4%- Market Herd – 99.1%- All Hogs and Pigs – 98.9%
My estimates – BH @ 98%, MH @ 99%
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
If 98% is right, BH has grown since Dec 1
U.S. BREEDING HERD, QUARTERLY
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Thous. Hd.
March 2010 @ 98% of 2009: 5.872 mil. head22,000 MORE than on December 1
X
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Take-aways
Chicken supplies are growing but the pace is slow – and prices are risingBeef supplies are falling and prices are risingPork supplies are lower (but will likely steady the rest of ’10) and prices are risingSEE THE PATTERN? – Driven by costsWholesale prices of all species are rising –How will consumer react?
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
All wholesale values are higher and risingBROILER PRICES
12-City Composite, Weekly
68
73
78
83
88
93
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
TURKEY PRICESEastern Hens, 8-16 Pounds, Weekly
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
HOG CUTOUT VALUEWeekly
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85JA
N
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2004-08
2009
2010
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
When demand turns around . . .
TOTAL MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTION, WEEKLY
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Million lbs.
. . . supply situation could be explosive
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Retail prices will all set records in ’10 or ‘11
RETAIL MEAT PRICES, USDA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cents/lb.All-Fresh BeefChoice BeefPorkComposite BroilerTurkey
ha
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION?