Forecasting for S-2&3

Page: 1 2 3 (Next) Question 1Marks: 1Inaccurate demand forecasts can lead to problems such as over-staffing and late deliveries.Choose one answer. a. False b. TrueQuestion 2Marks: 1A correlation coefficient of -1 implies thatChoose one answer. a. one variable increases at the same rate that the other variable decreases b. both variables increase at exactly the same rate c. both variables increase at the same rate d. the two variables have no correlation e. both variables decrease at the same rateQuestion 3Marks: 1Causal forecasting attempts to forecast a phenomenon, and explain the causes of the phenomenon.Choose one answer. a. False b. TrueQuestion 4Marks: 1An exponential forecasting method is a time-series forecasting method.Choose one answer. a. False b. TrueQuestion 5Marks: 1City government has collected the following data on annual sales tax collections yes and new car registrations (x)

yxxyx Sq.y Sq.

110101001

1.41216.81441.96

1.91528.52253.61

216322564

1.81425.21963.24

2.11735.72894.41

2.320464005.29Total12.5104194.2161023.51

Calculate the coefficient of correlation.Choose one answer. a.0.93

b. 0.95 c. 0.97 d. 0.99Question 6Marks: 1A convenience store wants to forecast next weeks demand for milk. Sales for the past five weeks are shown below. Using the cumulative average forecasting model, what are forecast sales for week 6?

Week tActual Sales12382230323742355233

Choose one answer. a. 235 b. 237 c. 239 d. 232Question 7Marks: 1An ice cream manufacturer experiences higher demand in the summer because of high temperatures and low demand in the winter because of cold weather. In a time series model, these fluctuations would be described as the __________ component of the forecasting process.Choose one answer. a. Cyclical component b. Permanent component c. Random component d. Trend component e. Seasonal componentQuestion 8Marks: 1If computing a causal linear regression model of Y = a + bX and the resultant r Square is very near zero, then one would be able to conclude thatChoose one answer. a. Y b. none of the above c. a multiple linear regression model is a good forecasting method for the data d. a + bX is not a good forecasting method e. Y f. a multiple linear regression model is not a good forecasting method for the data g. a + bX is a good forecasting methodQuestion 9Marks: 1Causal models for statistical forecasting assume that the value of the dependent variable is a function of the values of other variables that are knowable in a timely fashion.Choose one answer. a. True b. False Page: 1 2 3 (Page: (Previous) 1 2 3 (Next) Question 10Marks: 1Which of these qualitative forecasting methods would be preferred for new products/servicesChoose one answer. a. historical analogy and market research b. executive committee consensus and Delphi method c. survey of sales force and customers d. None of the alternatives is correctQuestion 11Marks: 1The ABC Company mails questionnaires to a random sample of households in their community. This is an example of what technique?Choose one answer. a. Executive committee consensus b. Delphi method c. market research d. Focus group approachQuestion 12Marks: 1Forecast accuracy refers toChoose one answer. a. how close forecasts come to actual data b. how precise a forecast will be c. highly accurate forecasts d. long range forecastsQuestion 13Marks: 1Mikes Bikes, a small bicycle store, wants to forecast sales for July. The sales for the first half of the year are:

MonthSalesJan68Feb64Mar57Apr65May67Jun73

Using the weighted moving average forecasting method with the sum-of-digits weighting scheme at N = 4, what are the forecast sales for July?

Choose one answer. a. 63.0 b. 68.0 c. 65.7 d. 65.5Question 14Marks: 1An exponential smoothing model having a largeChoose one answer. a. is always the most effective weighting scheme. b. is less responsive to recent demand. c. is not a time-series model. d. places emphasis on the past demand data. e. is more responsive to recent demand changes.Question 15Determine the least squares regression equation.

Choose one answer. a. -0.16+0.13x b. -0.16+0.19x c. -0.13+0.16x d. -0.19+0.13XQuestion 16Marks: 1The purpose of a tracking signal is to help us estimate the forecast error at each data point.Choose one answer. a. True b. FalseQuestion 17Marks: 1The component of time series models that describes any long-term upward or downward movement over a period of time is aChoose one answer. a. Cyclical component b. Random component c. Seasonal component d. Permanent component e. Trend componentQuestion 18Marks: 1Why are cyclic components used rarely in time series models?Choose one answer. a. Their effects are irregular, making them hard to represent b. They are not important c. Their fluctuations are represented already in the trend component d. They represent long periods of time Page: (Previous) 1 2 3 (Next) Page: (Previous) 1 2 3 Question 19Marks: 1Statistical forecasting models that forecast the future values of a variable using only previous values of that variable areChoose one answer. a. Demand models b. Associative models c. Causal models d. Time series modelsQuestion 20Marks: 1Qualitative forecasting techniques are appropriate whenChoose one answer. a. Little or no historical data exist b. The environment is stable c. All of the above d. The forecast has a short-term horizonQuestion 21Marks: 1An Italian restaurant wants to forecast pepperoni pizza sales for October. Actual sales and forecasts for the past 3 months are shown below. The owner prefers to use an exponential smoothing forecasting model with = 0.3. What are the forecast sales for October?

MonthActual SalesForecast ( = 0.3)June210208July216208.6Aug204210.82Sept.212208.77

Choose one answer. a. 209.74 b. 212.97 c. 207.80 d. 211.23Question 22Marks: 1The relationship between "b" and "r" isChoose one answer. a. their signs must be the same b. c. the sum of their values equals zero d. There is no relationshipQuestion 23Marks: 1Organizations use demand forecasts to planChoose one answer. a. Facilities b. Materials c. Personnel d. All of the aboveQuestion 24Marks: 1Time-series models enable the forecaster to include specific representations of various qualitative and quantitative factors.Choose one answer. a. False b. TrueQuestion 25Marks: 1To make a forecast which is accurate over time requires that we collect data over time.Choose one answer. a. True b. False Page: (Previous) 1 2 3