Business Forecasting: Techniques, Best Practices ... Forecasting Seminar May 2014.pdf · New...
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You will leave this comprehensive three-day seminar with insight into all aspects of busi- ness forecasting and a working knowledge of proven forecasting methods. The course surveys various forecasting methods, explains how they work conceptually, their pros and cons, and best practices for implementing them in a real-world environment. The tutorials incorporate demonstrations of how the methods are implemented in Forecast Pro, using real-world examples that apply best practices. During the hands-on workshops, you will have the opportunity to solve your forecasting challenges by applying what you have learned using Forecast Pro. Who Should Attend? The seminar is valuable for anyone whose job responsibilities include preparing or analyzing forecasts—some prior knowledge of statistics is helpful but not essential. Forecast Pro demonstrations are used to provide a deeper under- standing of the underlying forecasting methods; however, the class is not designed to provide Forecast Pro software training. Seminar Highlights: Introduction to business forecasting Components of data Time series methods including Exponential Smoothing, Box-Jenkins and the Croston’s intermittent demand model Advanced techniques including event modeling, top-down reconciliation and dynamic regression New product forecasting methods Forecast accuracy and evaluation Computer workshops using Forecast Pro Networking with your peers during lunches and cocktail reception Business Forecasting: Techniques, Best Practices & Application Using Forecast Pro May 7-9 , 2014 Boston, Massachusetts USA “This was such a great experience! I learned about different ways of generating forecasts and picked up lots of good tips. People heavily involved with the forecasting process should absolutely attend this seminar.” Mersiha Ibrakovic Thermo Fisher Scientific www.forecastpro.com ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Transcript of Business Forecasting: Techniques, Best Practices ... Forecasting Seminar May 2014.pdf · New...
You will leave this comprehensive three-day seminar with insight into all aspects of busi-ness forecasting and a working knowledge of proven forecasting methods. The course surveys various forecasting methods, explains how they work conceptually, their pros and cons, and best practices for implementing them in a real-world environment.
The tutorials incorporate demonstrations of how the methods are implemented in Forecast Pro, using real-world examples that apply best practices. During the hands-on workshops, you will have the opportunity to solve your forecasting challenges by applying what you have learned using Forecast Pro.
Who Should Attend?The seminar is valuable for anyone whose job responsibilities include preparing or analyzing forecasts—some prior knowledge of statistics is helpful but not essential. Forecast Pro demonstrations are used to provide a deeper under-standing of the underlying forecasting methods; however, the class is not designed to provide Forecast Pro software training.
Seminar Highlights:Introduction to business forecasting
Components of data
Time series methods including Exponential Smoothing, Box-Jenkins and the Croston’s intermittent demand model
Advanced techniques including event modeling, top-down reconciliation and dynamic regression
New product forecasting methods
Forecast accuracy and evaluation
Computer workshops using Forecast Pro
Networking with your peers during lunches and cocktail reception
Business Forecasting: Techniques, Best Practices & Application Using Forecast Pro
May 7-9, 2014Boston, Massachusetts USA
“This was such a great experience! I learned about different ways of generating forecasts and picked up lots of good tips. People heavily involved with the forecasting process should absolutely attend this seminar.”
Mersiha Ibrakovic Thermo Fisher Scientific
www.forecastpro.com
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Seminar AgendaIntroduction to ForecastingA broad overview of business forecasting and its various uses within the organization. Topics include approaches to forecasting, features of data, the role of judgment, selection of appropriate forecasting methods for varied data sets and resources for forecasters.
Components of Data An in-depth look at the different components found in time series data including trends, seasonal patterns, business cycles, trading-day variation, interventions (events) and noise. Discussion addresses the forms the components can take, spotting local vs. global components, interpretation of business cycle indicators and the use of decomposition routines.
Exponential SmoothingA survey of exponential smoothing techniques with particular emphasis on the Holt-Winters family of models and Croston’s intermittent demand model. Topics include the pros and cons of using these models, when they are best used, how they work, identifying model components, parameter optimization and model diagnosis.
Forecasting Accuracy and EvaluationA detailed look at evaluating the accuracy of forecasting methods. Topics include the distinction between within-sample and out-of-sample errors, a survey of error measurement statistics, a summary of fi ndings from forecasting competitions and an explanation of how to use both real-time tracking reports and simulations as predictors of model performance.
PC Workshop 1This fi rst hands-on session familiarizes attendees with the use of the Forecast Pro software package as they are guided through sample exercises applying the ideas discussed during the lectures.
Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) ModelsAn exploration into the use of ARIMA models for business forecasting. Topics include the advantages/disadvantages of using these models, how and when they should be applied, automatic identifi cation procedures and model diagnostics.
Software Discount
Attendees are eligible
to receive a discount
of up to $1000 when
licensing Forecast Pro
software
www.forecastpro.com
Event-Index ModelsEvent-index models extend the functionality of exponential smoothing models by providing adjustments for promotions, strikes and other non-calendar based events. This unit addresses how these models work, how and when they should be used, and how to customize their design to best suit your needs.
Large-Scale Forecasting Approaches for focusing on critical items when forecasting large volumes of data. Topics include evaluating and forecasting SKU data, fi ltering and ABC (Pareto) classifi cation, outlier detection & correction, exception reporting, and measuring accuracy across multiple time series.
Multiple-Level Forecasting This section explores hierarchical forecasting techniques. Topics include discussion of the need for forecasting at various levels, product vs. geographical hierarchies, reconciliation strategies, top-down vs. bottom-up approaches, the use of proportional allocation and adjustment for seasonality.
PC Workshop 2In this session, attendees are guided through forecasting exercises and have time to work with their own data with the help of the course instructors.
New Product ForecastingThis session explores various approaches for forecasting new products. Topics include the pros and cons of different methods based on a product’s classifi cation, and a review of popular methods including item supersession, forecasting by analogy and the
Bass diffusion model.
Dynamic RegressionA detailed look into the ins and outs of regression forecasting. Topics include when regression models are best applied, how to build the model, ordinary least squares, leading indicators, lagged variables, Cochrane-Orcutt models, hypothesis testing and the use of “dummy” variables.
PC Workshop 3This fi nal session consists of a regression example after which attendees have time to work with their own data.
About the Instructor
Eric Stellwagen is the co-founder of Business Forecast Systems, Inc. and the co-author of the Forecast Pro software product line. With more than 27 years of expertise in the fi eld, he regularly presents workshops on business forecasting and is widely recognized as a leading educator on the subject. Drawing upon his extensive consulting experience helping organizations to address their forecasting challenges, Eric infuses his classes with practical approaches and uses real-world data to illustrate concepts. He has worked with many leading fi rms including Coca-Cola, Kraft, Merck, Nabisco, Owens-Corning and Verizon and has presented workshops for a variety of organizations including APICS, the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), the Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF), the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), and the University of Tennessee. Eric is currently serving on the board of directors of the IIF and the practitioner advisory board of “Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.”
www.forecastpro.com
Venue:Royal Sonesta Boston
40 Edwin Land BoulevardCambridge, Massachusetts 02142 USATel: 617.806.4200http://www.sonesta.com/Boston
Located on the Cambridge side of the Charles River, the Royal Sonesta Hotel Boston is an upscale hotel offering guests spectacular city views and luxury accommodations. It is located just 3 miles from Boston’s Logan Airport.
Hotel rooms are available at a reduced rate of $259/night if booked by Sunday, April 13, 2014.
Click here to make a reservation online. You may also Click here to make a reservation online. You may also Click here to make a reservation online. You may also Click here to make a reservation online. You may also reserve by phone at 617.806.4255; use the code 0507BUSFOR to receive the special rate.
Seminar Hours:Wednesday, May 7, 2014: 9 am to 5 pmThursday, May 8, 2014: 9 am to 5 pmFriday, May 9, 2014: 9 am to 3:30 pm
Lunch is provided daily.
A cocktail reception will be held on Wednesday evening, providing a relaxing environment for the attendees to socialize after the fi rst day of the seminar.
Registration Fees:
❑ One Attendee............................................................................ ........................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................... .$1,395
or
❑ One Attendee with Early Bird Discount (by April 7, 2014) ..........................................................$1,295
or
❑ One Attendee with Team Discount................................. ..................................................................... ..................................................................... $1,095
Sign up 3 or more attendees at the same time and pay only $1,095 per attendee. Team Discount cannot be combined with any other discount. Names of the other attendees must be listed below to receive this price:
#1 _____________________ #2 ______________________
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Cancellation Policy:The seminar is limited in size and we ask that if you must cancel to please inform us as soon as possible. Attendees may receive a full refund if cancellation is made 30 days or more prior to the start of the seminar. Attendees who cancel 14-30 days prior to the start date may receive a refund of the registration fee paid minus a $150 service charge. Registrants who fail to attend or cancel less than 14 days before the start date are not entitled to receive a refund. Personnel substitutions may be made at any time.
Mail to: Fax Form to: E-mail: 617-484-9219 [email protected]
or Call: Web: 617-484-5050 www.forecastpro.com
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REGISTRATION FORM Business Forecasting: Techniques, Best Practices
& Application Using Forecast ProMay 7-9May 7-9May , 2014 ◆ Boston, Massachusetts USA
Business Forecast System Business Forecast System s s
68 Leonard Street
Belmont, MA 02478 Belmont, MA 02478 USA
