Flash Report on GDP Hungary - March 2017

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    FLASH REPORT 8 March 2017

    Household consumptions contribution improved further, investments contribution was the lowest on record

    Economic growth in Hungary decelerated to 1.6% YoY in Q4 from 2.2% YoY in Q3. Market consensus was 2.0%, while OTP Research expected 1.7%. Seasonally adjusted figures show similar decline, with growth slowing from 2.0% to 1.5%. Non-farm GDP growth was down from 1.4% to 1.0% (NSA), while non-farm private GDP growth slowed down from 1.7% to 1.1%. The annualized QoQ index in SWDA terms was 1.2% in Q4, the same as a quarter earlier.

    The big picture: the incoming data match our assessment of the Hungarian economy, which entered a matured phase of recovery when household consumption is increasingly becoming the engine of growth and the contribution of net exports tends to decline as a consequence of strong domestic demand. However, this underlying strong momentum right now is veiled by the cyclicality of EU fund absorption, which led to a collapse in government investment and, as a consequence, in construction output in 2016.

    Indeed, in 2016 as a whole Hungarys GDP grew by 2.0%, which is quite a marked deceleration from 4.0% in 2014, and 3.1% in 2015. As we pointed out many times, construction and industry were the heaviest drags. Compared to the local record year, 2014, industrys growth contribution declined by 1.1 pp while that of construction contracted by 1.0 pp. Construction is not a surprise, the collapse of infrastructural orders from the government paved the way for a bad performance. However, the sluggish growth of industry is a bit discouraging: while the sector gained remarkable impetus until mid-2015, it could not really expand further since then. On the other hand, private services growth contribution was the highest since 2006: the 1.4% figure is 0.2 pp higher than the 2014 reading. The contribution of agriculture and government services to growth (0.6% and 0.2%, respectively) was quite similar to that of 2014.

    The production side picture is mirrored on the expenditure side as well. Household consumption expenditure expanded by 4.9% YoY (matching our forecast). This is the highest reading since 2003, and according to the short-term evolution it even seems to have accelerated over 2016H2. In contrast, gross fixed capital formation posted -15.5% decline in 2016 (well short of our -9.1% forecast and hitting an all-time low by a wide margin), though it was partly masked by robust inventory accumulation. Hence gross investment posted -5.0% decline it was -7.0% in 2012, when gross fixed capital formation declined by only -3.0%. Investment accumulation was strong in manufacturing as well as in wholesale and retail trade sectors. This, coupled with the sluggish performance of industry, made the growth contribution of net exports decline to 0.6%, down from 1.8% a year earlier. Exports grew by 5.8% in 2016, after expanding by 9.8% in 2014 and by 7.7% in 2015.

    So the question at this point is: what to expect from 2017 regarding to the robustness of household consumption and the position of investments? As we wrote earlier, we foresee household consumption expenditure to keep its robust expansion pace upon tight labour market, accelerating wage dynamic, and a pick-up in borrowing. The saving position of the households is still very solid, so the sector even has reserves to expand rapidly. Furthermore, there are several signs of private investment revival in 2017: the governments measures to catalyse the real estate market started to bear fruits at the end of 2016 while office vacancy rates are at decade-low levels, suggesting that private investment may accelerate. The about HUF 1,000 bn government budget spending spree in December 2016 (which strongly lifted construction orders) will markedly affect construction activity in 2017. EU funds absorption restarted in 2016H2, and the flow will strengthen this year. There are two big-ticket investments (by Samsung and Mercedes-Benz) in the pipeline for a combined EUR 1.3 bn. And factory orders could slightly increase recently. However, as terms of trade declined to neutral level, net exports are unlikely to provide much higher boost to growth than in 2016.

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    Fixed Income Desk Andrs Sovny

    +36 1 288 7561 [email protected] Benedek Kroly Szts

    +36 1 288 7560 [email protected]

    FX Desk Andrs Marton

    +36 1 288 7523 [email protected] Jzsef Horvth

    +36 1 288 7514 [email protected]

    Money Market Desk Gbor Fazekas

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    +36 1 288 7533 [email protected]

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    Mt Kelemen

    +36 1 288 7525 [email protected] Analyst Gbor Dunai

    +36 1 374 7272 [email protected]

    https://www.otpbank.hu/static/elemzesikozpont/other/elemzesek/11214_BusinessReport_20170125.pdfmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

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    We forecast 3.9% YoY GDP growth for 2017 and 3.1% for 2018. We think risks are tilted to the upside, especially regarding 2018, as the government still has considerable room for manoeuvre (please note that on a cash base the first two months brought a cumulative HUF 140 bn surplus, compared to the HUF 14 bn in January-February 2016), and it is very likely to use it ahead of next years parliamentary election.

    Main macro forecasts

    Key economic indicators 2017.02.2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2016F 2017F 2018F

    Nominal GDP (at current prices, bn HUF) 28 628 30 065 32 180 33 712 34 869 37 104 39 200

    Real GDP change -1,7% 2,1% 4,0% 3,1% 2,0% 3,9% 3,1% 2,0% 3,0% 2,9% 1,9% 3,5% 3,2%

    Household final consumption -2,3% 0,6% 2,5% 3,4% 4,2% 4,2% 4,1% 4,5% 4,3% 3,6% 5,0% 4,8% 3,9%

    Household consumption expenditure -2,3% 0,2% 2,1% 3,1% 4,9% 4,9% 4,8%

    Collective consumption -0,3% 3,0% 9,2% 0,6% 0,1% 0,5% 1,0%

    Gross fixed capital formation -4,4% 7,3% 9,9% 1,9% -15,5% 13,7% 2,8% -9,5% 5,8% 5,3% -9,6% 10,0% 5,0%

    Exports -1,8% 6,4% 9,8% 7,7% 5,8% 4,6% 7,5% 6,7% 5,0% 5,9%

    Imports -3,5% 6,3% 10,9% 6,1% 5,7% 6,0% 7,2% 6,4% 6,8% 6,7%

    General goverment balance (ESA'10 based, HUF bn) -662 -770 -673 -534 -368 -433 -784

    in percent of GDP -2,3% -2,6% -2,1% -1,6% -1,6% -1,2% -2,0% -1,8% -2,4% -2,4% -1,8% -2,4% -2,5%

    General goverment debt (in percent of GDP) 78,3% 76,8% 76,2% 75,3% 74,4% 73,6% 71,7% 74,3% 73,3% 72,1% 73,5% 72,3% 71,2%

    Current account (EUR bn)* 1,7 3,9 2,2 3,7 5,6 4,2 2,5 5,0 4,5 4,1

    in percent of GDP 1,8% 3,8% 2,1% 3,4% 5,0% 3,5% 2,0% 4,5% 3,8% 3,3% 5,4% 3,7% 3,2%

    Gross nominal wages** 5,7% 4,1% 3,6% 4,4% 5,7% 9,0% 6,8%

    Gross real wages 0,0% 2,3% 3,8% 4,5% 5,3% 5,9% 3,5%

    Gross disposable income*** 2,0% 3,1% 4,0% 4,8% 4,4% 5,5% 5,9%

    Gross real disposable income -3,5% 1,3% 4,2% 4,9% 4,0% 2,5% 2,6%

    Employment (annual change) 1,8% 1,7% 5,3% 2,7% 2,9% 1,3% 0,8% 1,9% 0,5% 0,3%

    Employment domestic concept w/o public workers -0,2% 0,5% 3,3% 1,5% 2,3% 1,8% 0,9%

    Unemployment rate (annual average) 11,0% 10,2% 7,7% 6,8% 5,1% 4,5% 4,1% 5,1% 4,7% 4,6% 5,0% 6,1% 5,6%

    Inflation (annual average) 5,7% 1,7% -0,2% -0,1% 0,4% 2,9% 3,2% 0,4% 2,2% 2,7% 0,4% 2,2% 3,1%

    Base rate (end of year) 5,75% 3,00% 2,10% 1,35% 0,90% 0,90% 1,35% 0,90% 0,91% 1,30%

    1Y Treasury Bill (average) 7,0% 4,11% 2,28% 1,17% 0,77% 0,40% 0,94%

    Real interest rate (average, ex post) 1,3% 2,3% 2,5% 1,2% 0,3% -2,5% -2,2%

    EUR/HUF exchange rate (average) 289,3 297,0 308,6 309,9 311,6 311,8 313,3 311,0 310,0 312,0

    EUR/HUF exchange rate (end of year) 291,3 296,9 314,9 313,1 311,0 312,6 314,1 309,0 312,0 312,0

    Sources: CSO, NBH, OTP Bank

    *: Official data of balance of payments (excluding net errors and ommissions)

    ***: Calculation based on financial accounts data

    **: Total wages including accrual based salaries in governmental sector. In the case of

    private sector wages we calculated with whitening effect filtered wages and we

    adjusted the changeable seasonality of the bonus payments.

    Focus Economics EC Winter 2017OTP

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    Chart 1: Summary chart of GDP growth (annual and annualized QoQ growth rate, %)

    1. Chart 2: Different indicators of economic activity (annual changes, %)

    Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

    Chart 3: Decomposition of GDP growth by production-side items (quarterly data, %)

    1. Chart 4: Decomposition of GDP growth by expenditure-side items (quarterly data, %)

    Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

    2.

    Chart 5: Investment rate (nominal, as % of GDP, SA)

    3. Chart 6: Investment activity by sectors (decomposition of the annual change, %)

    Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

    Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

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    Chart 7: Investment evolution in GDP statistics (annual and annualized QoQ growth rate, %)

    2. Chart 8: Construction orders (2000=100, SWDA)

    Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

    Chart 9: Building permits and completed flats (annualized unit)

    3. Chart 10: Vacancy rates (%, SA)

    Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

    Forecast: OTP Research, according to announced developments

    Chart 11: Households consumption