Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 1

FIRST GLANCE 12LEconomic and Banking Performance in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District

COVID-19: FROM HEADWIND TO HURRICANE

1Q20 | JULY 2, 2020

This report is a product of the Financial Institutions Supervision and Credit Department. It is based upon preliminary data from 1Q20 and prior Condition & Income Reports as well as other examination and economic sources. Data has been prepared primarily for bank

supervisors and bankers. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Opinions are intended only for informational purposes, and are not formal opinions of, nor binding on, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of

Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Data Inquiries: please contact sf.fisc.publications@sf.frb.orgPress Inquiries: please contact Media Relations at https://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/

First Glance 12L: https://www.frbsf.org/banking/publications/first-glance-12l/

https://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/https://www.frbsf.org/banking/publications/first-glance-12l/

Table of Contents

Highlights: Twelfth District Overview 3 – 4

Section 1: Spotlight Feature & Hot Topics 5 – 9

Section 2: Economic Conditions

Pandemic and Social Distancing

Employment and Confidence

Housing

Commercial Real Estate

10

11– 12

13 – 15

16 – 22

23 – 27

Section 3: Commercial Bank Performance

Earnings

Allowances and Credit Quality

Loan Growth and Concentrations

Liquidity and Interest Rate Risk

Capital

28

29 – 31

32 – 40

41 – 49

50 – 54

55 – 58

Appendices: Institution Counts, Technical Information, & Abbreviations 59 – 60

Summary & Contents

Executive Summary

Through 1Q20, District banks’ earnings sank as net interest margins narrowed in response to sharply lower interest rates and provision expenses surged. Earnings impacts were greatest among larger publicly-traded banks, which adopted new loan loss allowance accounting rules during the quarter. Problem loan levels were affected only mildly, in part because the severe phase of the COVID-19 pandemic did not begin until late in 1Q20. Subsequent borrower accommodations and federal stimulus will likely moderate near-term impacts on delinquency and loss rates. On-balance sheet liquidity improved as cash from jittery investors and proceeds from pre-emptive draws on lines of credit were deposited into banks. The resulting balance sheet growth, combined with continued dividend payouts amid weaker earnings pressured bank capital ratios.

The District’ s annual job growth rate, which decelerated in March and plummeted in April, recovered only slightly in May. Home prices held steady or increased amid much lower sales volumes in April, but lender optimism about future home price growth fell sharply. Likewise, third-party forecasts suggested that demand for, and pricing of,commercial real estate will come under pressure. The virus that initially seemed like a distant threat to the United States triggered a sudden and severe global recession. Notwithstanding significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, the future path of the recovery remains uncertain.

12 Mo. May-20 12 Mo. May-20

NV -17.3% 25.3%

HI -20.1% 22.6%

CA -13.0% 16.3%

WA -11.8% 15.1%

OR -11.7% 14.2%

AK -12.4% 12.6%

AZ -5.7% 8.9%

ID -5.9% 8.9%

UT -4.8% 8.5%

US -11.7% 13.3%

Nonfarm Job Growth& UnemploymentJob Growth

(Y-o-Y %)Unemploy.

Rate

The COVID-19 pandemic and oil/gas price plunge led to a national recession and a historic collapse of Western labor markets by April, with only a minor recovery in May. Districtwide, nonfarm payrolls contracted by 13% year-over-year in April, after growing nearly 2% as recently as February. Payrolls recovered slightly in May, with the year-over-year contraction easing to 12%. All major sectors cut jobs, with leisure/hospitality payrolls falling by an astonishing 41% year-over-year. Month-over-month, most sectors re-gained jobs in May, but the government, transportation/ utilities, and information sectors (22% of total District jobs) deteriorated further. The Districtwide unemployment rate jumped from 5.2% in March to 16.2% in April, and then eased to 15.1% in May. Jobless rates rose into double digits in six District states, topping 20% in Nevada and Hawaii (see table). Job cuts in Arizona, Idaho, and Utah were less severe given lower virus activity and earlier re-openings. However, community transmission accelerated in all three states in June after social distancing eased. In aggregate, the District has made little progress in containing the pandemic, with case counts recently increasing in may states and fatalities hovering around 100 deaths per day, which may jeopardize the economic recovery.

Home prices held firm despite a sharp decline in sales, but mortgage lenders’ outlook for home prices dimmed. Shelter-in-place restrictions prompted the volume of existing single-family home sales to sink in April and May, trailing the monthly trough set during the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, pending home sales data hinted at a forthcoming bounce in transactions. Home price growth remained steady-to-accelerating in most District states through April. Still, mortgage lender expectations for home prices deteriorated sharply by mid-May, with 42% expecting prices to fall over the coming year. Homebuilder optimism swung back into positive territory in June as states reopened and buyer traffic rebounded.

Analysts expect commercial real estate (CRE) markets in the District to deteriorate across property types, but most severely in the hotel and retail sectors. CBRE-EA forecasts that CRE vacancy rates will rise sharply across the District during 2020. In aggregate, retail vacancies among the District’s major markets are expected to approach 12% by 1Q21—rivaling the peak during the GFC. CRE property values are also forecasted to decline, with retail properties expected to lose nearly 20% of their value, by 1Q21 (relative to 1Q20) before recovering. In contrast, industrial property values are expected to dip less than 2%. CBRE-EA projected that apartment and office property values would also slide, but less so than retail. The forecast reflects expected deterioration in rents and vacancies, as well as higher capitalization rates.

Twelfth District Overview“COVID-19: From Headwind to Hurricane”

3

Seasonally adjusted; subjectto annual benchmark revision.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

SF Fed

JobGrowthStates

Nonfarm Job Growth& Unemployment

Job Growth(Y-o-Y %)Unemploy. Rate

12 Mo.May-2012 Mo.May-20.SOURCE.DESC2019_Jun2019_Jul2019_Aug2019_Sep2019_Oct2019_Nov2019_Dec2020_Jan2020_Feb2020_Mar2020_Apr2020_MayQ/Q.SOURCE.DESC2019_Jun2019_Jul2019_Aug2019_Sep2019_Oct2019_Nov2019_Dec2020_Jan2020_Feb2020_Mar2020_Apr2020_MayQ/Q

NV-17.3%25.3%NVyryr%(NVLNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Nevada (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year2.61%2.45%2.32%2.14%1.56%1.75%1.50%1.66%1.13%-0.44%-19.48%-17.31%-18.45%NVNVRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Nevada (SA, %)3.93.93.83.73.73.73.73.63.66.930.125.3NV4.8

HI-20.1%22.6%HIyryr%(HILNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Hawaii (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year-0.98%-0.27%-1.05%-0.18%-0.23%-0.17%0.03%0.26%-0.12%-0.50%-19.11%-20.11%-19.99%HIHIRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Hawaii (SA, %)2.72.72.72.72.72.62.72.72.72.423.822.6HI1.2

CA-13.0%16.3%CAyryr%(CALNAGRA@LABORR)BLSCAEDDAll Employees: Total Nonfarm, California (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year1.48%1.58%1.60%1.40%1.39%1.40%1.39%1.50%1.50%0.23%-13.78%-13.04%-14.54%CACARA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, California (SA, %)4.04.03.93.93.93.93.93.93.95.516.416.3CA0.1

WA-11.8%15.1%WAyryr%(WALNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Washington (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year2.20%2.31%2.24%2.03%1.85%2.06%2.33%2.11%2.84%1.45%-14.18%-11.80%-14.64%WAWARA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Washington (SA, %)4.34.24.24.14.04.04.03.93.85.116.315.1WA1.2

OR-11.7%14.2%ORyryr%(ORLNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Oregon (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year1.44%1.65%1.71%1.31%1.28%1.39%1.35%0.95%1.32%0.47%-12.71%-11.66%-12.98%ORORRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Oregon (SA, %)3.83.73.63.53.43.43.43.33.33.514.914.2OR0.7

AK-12.4%12.6%AKyryr%(AKLNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Alaska (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year0.82%0.95%0.55%1.16%0.46%0.27%0.24%-0.18%0.12%-1.27%-14.73%-12.39%-12.51%AKAKRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Alaska (SA, %)6.26.26.26.26.16.16.16.05.85.213.512.6AK0.9

AZ-5.7%8.9%AZyryr%(AZLNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Arizona (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year2.61%2.69%3.12%2.67%2.64%2.79%2.88%2.54%2.61%1.73%-7.67%-5.71%-8.32%AZAZRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Arizona (SA, %)4.84.74.64.64.54.54.54.54.56.113.48.9AZ4.5

ID-5.9%8.9%IDyryr%(IDLNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Idaho (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year2.72%2.73%2.87%3.01%2.40%2.40%2.72%2.37%2.58%1.93%-8.89%-5.92%-8.50%IDIDRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Idaho (SA, %)2.92.92.92.92.92.92.92.82.72.511.88.9ID2.9

UT-4.8%8.5%UTyryr%(UTLNAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonagricultural, Utah (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year2.98%2.90%2.96%2.74%2.98%3.02%3.08%2.85%2.81%2.37%-7.23%-4.81%-7.62%UTUTRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, Utah (SA, %)2.62.52.52.52.42.42.42.52.53.810.48.5UT1.9

US-11.7%13.3%USyryr%(LANAGRA@LABORR)BLSAll Employees: Total Nonfarm (SA, ) % Change - Year to Year1.26%1.29%1.27%1.35%1.34%1.42%1.42%1.38%1.55%0.54%-13.35%-11.73%-13.28%USUSRA@EMPLRBLSUnemployment Rate, United States (SA, %)3.73.73.73.53.63.53.53.63.54.414.713.3US1.4

Sheet1

Bank earnings sank year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. District banks’ average one-quarter annualized ROAA ratio was 0.84%, down 39 bps and 27 bps from 1Q19 and 4Q19, respectively (adjusted for Subchapter S tax filers). Interest rate declines and a partly-seasonal shift in asset mix fed net interest margin compression. Meanwhile, rapidly weakening credit prospects fueled large provisions for credit losses. Mid- to large-sized publicly traded banks, which adopted new accounting rules for current expected credit losses (CECL) in 1Q20, booked especially large provisions. Some banks also incurred large writedowns on servicing assets and/or goodwill. Although yield-enhancing fees on Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans may help profits in 2Q20, persistent net interest margin and provision expense pressures will pose offsets.

The unfolding pandemic may have lifted delinquencies and loan growth slightly. Loans past-due 30 days or more or in nonaccrual status inched higher to 0.80%, but remained well below GFC peaks in 2009 (see chart, upper left). Problem loan levels were affected only mildly, in part because the severe phase of the COVID-19 pandemic did not begin until late in 1Q20. Subsequent borrower accommodations and federal stimulus will likely moderate near-term impacts on delinquency and loss rates. By March 2020, District banks’ average annual net loan growth rate edged up 56 bps to 8.28%. Growth was fueled by pre-pandemic originations as well as borrowers’ precautionary draws on lines of credit. The April 2020 Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey noted growing weariness among lenders by April, and executives surveyed by Promontory Interfinancial Network expressed concern over lending, capital, and economic prospects. Subsequent PPP activity is expected to boost C&I loan growth in 2Q20. Through June 20, borrowers in the District received nearly one million PPP loans totaling $110 billion. California dominated District aggregates, but PPP represented a larger share of gross state product in most other states and covered a majority of small businesses districtwide (see chart at left and “Spotlight” feature).

On-balance sheet liquidity improved slightly, but capital pressures increased. District banks’ average quarterly deposit growth accelerated to an annualized rate of 8.21%, the fastest average first quarter pace of increase since 2016. Growth was fueled by funds from investors fleeing the stock market and re-deposited loan proceeds from pre-emptive draws on lines of credit. Flight-to-safety Inflows were initially diverted into liquid instruments, benefitting on-balance sheet liquidity. However, the resulting asset growth, combined with weakening earnings and dividend payouts, pressured capital ratios. Many firms suspended share repurchase plans beginning in March, which may ease bank dividend pressures. The impact of CECL adoption on regulatory capital was minimal as most adopters took advantage of capital delay rules.

Cumulative Dollar Volume ofPPP/Gross State Product* (%)

Twelfth District Overview, Continued3.

1%

2.7%

2.7%

2.5%

2.4

%

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0

%

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%

2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%

ID UT

OR HI

US

AZ

NV

AK

CA

WA

6.3%

0.8%

0.0%

12.9%8.3%

-7%

0%

7%

14%

21%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Mar

-05

Mar

-07

Mar

-09

Mar

-11

Mar

-13

Mar

-15

Mar

-17

Mar

-19

Delinquencies (left)YTD Net C/O (left)Net Ln. Growth (right)

SF Fed

*Delinquent = 30+ days past due or nonaccrual; C/O = chargeoff (year-to-date annualized); trimmed means.

4

District Credit Metrics*

SF Fed

*4Q19 GSP at seasonally adjusted annual rate; approvals through June 20, net of repayments.

5

Small-to-Medium Enterprise Credit Landscape

Hot Topics We Are Monitoring Most Closely

Section 1Spotlight Feature & Hot Topics

• The COVID-19 crisis has impacted small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) acutely this cycle. Employment statistics from ADP, a payroll processing firm, highlight the difference in scale and scope of job losses relative to the 2008-09 GFC period. Over the twelve months ending April 2020, small- and medium-sized firms shed more than 15% of their employees, only some of which were recovered through June (see chart, top right).1 In contrast, during the GFC, layoffs were more significant among medium-to-large firms than small businesses. The pace of losses eased through June as firms re-hired some staff.

• SMEs provided just under half of all jobs among Twelfth District employer firms and accounted for a disproportionate share of jobs in some hard-hit sectors. For instance, employees in the accommodation and food services and “other” services (e.g., hair/nail salons, spas, and repair shops) sectors, which were severely hampered by social distancing mandates, were more likely than not to be employed by an SME (see chart, bottom right). Job losses were symptomatic of the stresses facing these firms.

• Even before the pandemic, many SMEs were operating with thin financial cushions. The New York Fed’s Survey of Small Business Credit, conducted during the second half of 2019, noted that two-thirds of surveyed employer SMEs faced financial challenges in the prior year. 2 Within the District, a notable share of surveyed firms reported difficulties paying operating expenses/wages (48%), securing credit (39%), making debt payments (33%), or purchasing inventory or supplies to fulfill contracts (23%) before COVID-19. Further, 17% of surveyed District SMEs indicated they would have to close or sell the business if they experienced a two-month loss in revenues. The Paycheck Protection and Main Street Lending Programs may help bridge the gap; however, some SMEs may ultimately liquidate or pursue reorganization under “Subchapter V” of the bankruptcy code, created under the Small Business Reorganization Act of 2019.

6

Spotlight: Small-to-Medium Enterprise Credit Landscape

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Construction*Other Services

**AgricultureReal Estate

Prof., Sci., & Tech. Svcs.Accomm. & Food Svcs.

Wholesale TradeArts, Entertain't., & Rec.

Educational ServicesManufacturing

Health & Soc. Assist.Retail Trade

Transport. & Wareh'g.Admin. & Support

Finance & Insur.***Mining

InformationUtilities

Management of Cos.Total

Small (1-49)

Medium (50-499)

SME Jobs / Total Jobs – Twelfth District

*includes hair/nail salons, spas, auto repair, etc.; ** includes forestry, fishing, and hunting; ***includes oil and gas. Source: Census Bureau Statistics of U.S. Businesses (2017)

SF Fed

____________________

1 For purposes of this analysis, small businesses are generally defined as those having fewer than 50 employees; medium firms are those with 50 to 499 employees; large businesses have at least 500 employees.2 Employer firms are those that have 1 to 499 employees; self-employed individuals are excluded from this data.

-9.1%

-11.7%-10.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Jun

-06

Jun

-08

Jun

-10

Jun

-12

Jun

-14

Jun

-16

Jun

-18

Jun

-20

Small (1-49 Empl.) Medium (50-499 Empl.) Large (500+ Empl.)

Year-over-Year Change in Payrolls

Source: ADP

ThruJune2020

SF Fed

https://www.newyorkfed.org/smallbusiness/small-business-credit-survey-2020https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/econ/susb/2017-susb-annual.html

by 5/9 by 6/20 by 5/9 by 6/20AK 48% 63% 14% 19%AZ 47% 63% 16% 18%CA 45% 71% 16% 24%HI 61% 64% 18% 25%ID 53% 78% 14% 18%NV 46% 64% 14% 19%OR 46% 63% 14% 20%UT 56% 67% 8% 19%WA 47% 69% 16% 21%12L* 46% 69% 15% 22%

Nation 55% 72% 14% 21%

% of SMEs Receiving SBA FundsPPP Received EIDL Received

*SME firm count from 2017 County Business Pattern Survey was used to weight 12L average; all other data from 2020 Small Business Pulse Surveys. Source: Census Bureau.

$60

$110

241

938

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

$0

$30

$60

$90

$120

$150

16-A

pr

1-M

ay

8-M

ay

16-M

ay

23-M

ay

30-M

ay

6-Ju

n

12-J

un

20-J

un

Volume ($Bils., Left) Count (Ths., Right)Cumulative PPP Loan Approvals – 12L*

• Small Business Administration (SBA) emergency programs had a slow start in the District, but coverage improved over time. Small Business Pulse Survey data from the Census Bureau suggests that less than half of District SMEs had received Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) assistance by early May, lower than the nationwide average (see table, top right). This was despite the fact that nearly three quarters had applied for PPP loans by that point. However, by June 20, nearly 70% of surveyed District SMEs had received PPP money, and roughly 22% had obtained Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs).3

• Borrowers became more reticent during the second round of PPP funding. An initial $349 billion appropriated for PPP was deployed within the first two weeks of April and was oversubscribed. Demand in response to a second round introduced in late April was initially robust, but then stalled (see chart, bottom right). Nationwide, more than $128 billion remained available as of June 20. Given persistent re-opening limitations, borrowers became reluctant to apply for or even spend PPP funds for fear that they would not be able to meet forgiveness provisions. In early June, program requirements were eased to provide a 24-rather than 8-week spending window and reduce the payroll spending threshold from 75% to 60%, with partial forgiveness possible. For new loans, the maximum repayment term for unforgiven portions was extended from two years to five.

• PPP has not been without its risks. It is hoped that many of the loans will be forgiven and that any subsequent defaults will be covered by SBA guarantees. Because of the rapid roll out of the program, however, there is potential for compliance, fraud, and litigation risks. As banks quickly expanded their participation in PPP to include non-customers, following Know Your Customer (KYC) rules became difficult, especially given pandemic-related constraints. This also increased the risk that some loan requests would be obtained or used fraudulently. Already, some banks have been sued for exclusion of or disparate prioritization among customers and for nonpayment of agent fees by parties that facilitated borrower loan applications.

7

Spotlight: SME Credit Landscape, Continued

SF Fed

Excludes outlying Pacific islands; *May 1 and May 8 estimated as Round 1 on April 16 plus Round 2 as of each date; while SBA reporting for subsequent dates was aggregated across both rounds, net of repayments. Source: SBA.

SF Fed

____________________

3 The Small Business Pulse Survey targets non-farm, single-location employer businesses with business receipts of at least $1,000 but 500 or fewer employees.

https://portal.census.gov/pulse/data/Pulse

% of SMEs Receiving SBA Funds

PPP ReceivedEIDL Received

by 5/9by 6/20by 5/9by 6/20

AK48%63%14%19%

AZ47%63%16%18%

CA45%71%16%24%

HI61%64%18%25%

ID53%78%14%18%

NV46%64%14%19%

OR46%63%14%20%

UT56%67%8%19%

WA47%69%16%21%

12L*46%69%15%22%

Nation55%72%14%21%

The following areas are drawing heightened monitoring within the Twelfth District:

• Cyberthreats. Attackers prey on the vulnerability of humans as well as systems, leaving bank networks, their employees, and their clients targets for cyberattacks. Threats have increased in 2020, both because of pandemic-related opportunists, more widespread remote work among bank employees, and a surge in mobile banking application usage among customers. According to Symantec’s 1Q20 Threat Landscape Trends report, malicious emails sent under the guise of coronavirus skyrocketed in March. The firm also noted increased phishing rates, likely related to the surge in pandemic-themed email attacks. Formjacking activity also edged higher, affecting an estimated 27% of U.S. websites. Business email compromise scams persisted in 1Q20 after causing losses exceeding $1.7 billion in 2019 according to the FBI’s 2019 Internet Crime Report. Thieves also continued to exploit unpatched software vulnerabilities. Attacks have affected both depository institutions as well as their third party service providers. Strong staff and customer training, ongoing patch management, and effective vendor management remain important risk mitigants.

• Bank Secrecy Act (BSA)/Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance. Even though the volume of BSA/AML-related supervisory criticisms at District institutions has moderated, monitoring remains heightened because of the District’s role in the global economy, the array of activities being conducted by supervised institutions, and the expanding scope of cannabis legalization. In April 2020, the FFIEC issued a revised BSA/AML examination manual. Of note, revisions emphasized and enhanced the agencies’ risk-focused approach but did not establish new requirements (see Federal Reserve SR letter 20-11).

• Consumer compliance change management. Although the federal bank regulatory agencies had recently issued a number of new rules to reduce regulatory burden (e.g., revision of the “savings deposit” definition, increased thresholds for HMDA-data reporting, and increased safe harbor threshold for remittance transfers), the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (“CARES Act”) and other pandemic responses created new compliance requirements and responsibilities for financial institutions. For instance, the CARES Act modified credit reporting standards and established mortgage forbearance requirements. In addition, the grace period for renewing National Flood Insurance Policies was extended from 30 to 120 days. All of these changes have required banks to adjust various processes and procedures in a very short timeframe. As the pandemic is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, there may be additional pandemic-related adjustments to rules and guidance, and it will be important for banks to respond to these changes as they occur.

• Evolving financial technology (fintech) opportunities and risks. Fintech includes a broad range of technologies and services involving digitization of lending and servicing, payments, wealth management, data aggregation, and other areas. Banks have increasingly partnered with or expressed interest in acquiring fintech firms, and have leveraged advanced technologies to perform processes. The ramp-up of PPP lending likely accelerated such partnerships, especially within lending, as banks sought to quickly expand underwriting capacity and access alternative data such as payroll information to meet forgiveness and eligibility requirements. Shelter-in-place and remote work environments likely complicated vendor on-boarding and control processes. Fintech can add to the credit, operational, reputational, legal, and/or compliance risks faced by financial institutions. Also of concern is the fact that most fintech firms and their models are not recession-tested and many fintech lenders face liquidity constraints due to a lack of access to stable funding such as deposits.

8

Hot Topics: Areas We Are Monitoring Most Closely

https://symantec-enterprise-blogs.security.com/blogs/threat-intelligence/threat-landscape-q1-2020https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2019-internet-crime-report-released-021120https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/srletters/SR2011.htmhttps://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/consumer-reporting-and-cares-act/https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-and-state-regulators-provide-guidance-assist-borrowers-covid-19/https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/caletters/caltr2007.htm

• CRE lending concentrations. Nonowner-occupied CRE loan concentrations entered the current recession below pre-GFC peaks because of lower C&LD lending volumes. However, they remained above the U.S. average across most District states (see table at right). Concentration levels, combined with mounting pandemic-related pressures on CRE vacancies, rents, and capitalization rates, heighten regulatory concern. The shift in financing conditions and job markets could pressure CRE price appreciation. Risks are expected to extend to owner-occupied CRE given stress on small businesses.

• C&I lending. The U.S. corporate debt-to-gross domestic product ratio was already near record levels in early 2020, propelled in part by leveraged and near-subinvestment grade loans. Leverage, combined with loosened underwriting and current extreme stresses on business borrowers, are expected to amplify C&I loan losses. The impact on District banks could be significant given an average C&I loan-to-tier 1 capital and allowances ratio of 82% and the fact that C&I loans are often either unsecured or collateralized by hard-to-value assets such as accounts receivable and/or inventory.

• Reaching for yield. Since the GFC, banks had shifted their balance sheet mix, in part to accommodate loan demand but also to combat a persistently low interest rate environment. Examples include increased holdings of longer-term loans and securities, and pursuit of products with higher credit risk or optionality. Given recent sharp declines in interest rates and the potential for mounting credit losses, earnings pressures have increased, possibly prompting alternative profit or yield seeking strategies. These shifts may impact credit, liquidity, and interest rate risk positions.

• Pandemic-related risk management. Although shelter-in-place efforts averted an overwhelming surge in Twelfth District hospitalizations through May, case counts have increased in recent weeks, prompting several District states to pause or partially reverse re-opening efforts. Significant uncertainty exists around the future trajectory of the pandemic and the economy. As they resume supervisory work, regulators will be focused on institutions’ ongoing assessments of and responses to the pandemic’s effects on operations and financial conditions (see Federal Reserve SR Letter 20-15).

• Global recession. In June 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its expectations for world output, projecting a contraction of 4.9% in 2020, down 1.9 and 8.2 percentage points from their April and January 2020 forecasts, respectively. In aggregate, the IMF expects advanced economies, including the U.S., will shrink 8.0% in 2020, and developing economies will contract 3.0%. The unanticipated—and still uncertain—length of lockdown periods and business recovery efforts, plus productivity losses given post-opening safety and hygiene requirements have magnified downside forecast risks. 9

Hot Topics: Areas We Are Monitoring Most Closely, Cont’d.

2008-2020**

Mar-20

CA 270.1%

WA 224.9%

OR 217.3%

AZ 192.0%

NV 184.4%

HI 168.5%

AK 158.9%

ID 154.5%

UT 120.8%

Nation 126.6%

Average CRE Loans/Tier 1 Capital + Allowances* (%)

Trimmed means; excludes owner-occupied CRE; *includes loan- and lease-related allowances for losses; **Mar. 31 of each year.

323%

245%

169%

299%

339%

162%

148%

349%

372%

333%

= trough = peak

SF Fed

https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/srletters/sr2015.htmhttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020CRE

Average CRE Loans/Tier 1 Capital + Allowances* (%)

2008-2020**Mar-20maxMar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-13Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20

CA27,006.9%299CA292.68298.90265.73224.13205.64207.23220.15224.84249.48257.62267.21266.53270.07

WA22,489.3%339WA330.02339.36315.02247.66204.80183.85204.87195.94207.09222.11233.00222.96224.89

OR21,734.7%349OR349.29309.42296.53227.99212.73210.82201.39206.99238.48236.04226.09212.36217.35

AZ19,195.6%372AZ372.41319.68306.36242.68200.41186.64183.98188.59192.74189.47177.33177.92191.96

NV18,437.5%333NV274.94303.08332.73273.72214.04215.63206.24199.14246.78245.18213.11198.91184.37

HI16,848.3%168HI145.57160.89144.33141.76153.71145.77153.13149.04129.83148.68153.49160.28168.48

AK15,892.8%162AK87.6895.72139.29130.71131.62162.33154.80136.72142.41138.05147.30158.38158.93

ID15,445.7%245ID244.93216.63184.81170.54145.92141.72140.41132.84140.79153.10167.64162.85154.46

UT12,076.3%323UT322.67245.62186.90152.20124.62121.52119.97127.22128.60130.60126.14130.87120.76

Nation12,656.8%148Nation148.40146.12133.55121.11114.36112.79113.75113.40117.88122.79125.23125.21126.57

10

Pandemic Toll and Social Distancing

Job Growth

Housing Market

Commercial Real Estate

Section 2Economic Conditions

For more information on the national economy, see:

FedViews(https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/fedviews/)

FRBSF Economic Letters(https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/)

FOMC Calendar, Statements, & Minutes(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/fedviews/https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Daily COVID-19 deaths in the District remained stubbornlyhigh and may accelerate given recent increases in cases.

New Deaths Attributed to COVID-19(7-day rolling average, by number of days since 3 deaths/day first reported)

U.S. data through 6/28/2020; European Union data through 6/29/2020; comparisons of deaths across states and countries should be interpreted cautiously due to differing standards for what deaths are attributed to COVID-19; Alaska and Hawaii were omitted due to low/no average deaths. Discontinuity in U.S. total deaths due to reporting of probable past deaths by New Jersey on 6/25/2020; discontinuities in European Union deaths due to reporting revisions by Spain. Sources: COVID Tracking Project, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, accessed 6/29/2020.

SF Fed

128.4

800.7

105.4

35.658.6

0.3

1.11.7

1.3

6.4

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Dea

ths

(log

arit

hm

ic s

cale

)

Days since 3 deaths/day first recorded

European Union United States

Twelfth District

California

Arizona

WashingtonOregon

NevadaUtah

Idaho

11

District residents adopted social distancing measures rapidlyin late March, but resumed some activities in mid-April.

Social Distancing Index(7-day rolling average, 2/1/2020-6/12/2020, higher = more socially distanced)

A score of “100” indicates that all residents are staying home and no visitors are entering the state; scores based on anonymized location data from phones and vehicles. Source: Maryland Transportation Institute (2020); University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, https://data.covid.umd.edu, accessed on 6/19/2020, University of Maryland, College Park, USA.

SF Fed

12

59

20

49

22

51

27

60

28

53

29

56

30

62

34

63

35

70

47

58

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

1-Fe

b

12-J

un

AK ID UT NV AZ OR WA CA HI US

-6.7%

3.2% 1.8%(Feb.)

-13.1%(Apr.) -11.9%

(May)-13.3%(Apr.)

-11.7%(May)

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

May

-05

May

-06

May

-07

May

-08

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

District

Nation

Nonfarm Job Growth(Year-Over-Year % Change)

Seasonally adjusted; construction sector includes mining and logging in Hawaii; information sector excludes Hawaii and Nevada. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

After a historic drop in April, District payrolls edged up inMay, but govt., transport., info. sectors deteriorated further.

SF Fed SF Fed

12-month May-20

Leisure & Hospitality -41.38%Other Svcs. -22.41%Retail Trade -12.69%Manufacturing -8.18%Edu. & Health Svcs. -7.64%Information -7.56%Prof. & Business Svcs. -7.38%Wholesale Trade -6.24%Government -6.11%Transport. & Utilities -5.48%Construction -4.56%Mining & Logging -3.44%Financial Activities -1.65%Total Nonfarm -11.85%

Twelfth District Jobs by Sector

Job Sector% Change

(Year-Over-Year)

13

13.3%

16.2%

15.1%48.6%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

May

-05

May

-06

May

-07

May

-08

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

May

-05

May

-06

May

-07

May

-08

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

Unemployment Rate (left) Not Working / Civilian NoninstitutionalPopulation (right)

Nation District

Not WorkingUnemployment Rate (% of Civilian Population)

The unemployment rate and not working-share both rose torecord highs in April, then improved slightly in May.

SF Fed

Seasonally adjusted. “Civilian Population” = noninstitutional civilian population; “Not Working” = Civilian Population minus number employed. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1414

140.2

91.5

106.7

96.4

45.6

39.943.1

57.3

45.4

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

ConsumerConfidence

(Left)

Small BusinessOptimism

(Left)

Manufacturing PMI(Left)

NonmanufacturingPMI

(Left)

National California Western Washington

Consumer Confidence & Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)Small Business Optimism (Apr-15 = 100) (>50 = expansion)

Consumer and business sentiment plunged in April,but stabilized in May.

SF Fed

Seasonally adjusted. California PMI is quarterly, ending 2Q20; other series monthly, ending May-20. Sources: Conference Board, National Federation of Independent Business, Institute for Supply Management, Chapman University via Haver Analytics.

15

730

1,1801,110

650

45

252

169 0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

May

-05

May

-06

May

-07

May

-08

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rate (Right) Existing Homes (Left) New Homes (Left)

Home sales fell in response to the pandemic; pending homesales data may signal improved sales volumes ahead.

Single-Family Home Sales – West 30-Year Fixed Mortgage(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Monthly, Thousands) Rate – Nation (Monthly)

West = Twelfth District plus CO, MT, NM, and WY. Sources: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (existing homes), Census Bureau (new homes), and Freddie Mac (mortgage rate) via Haver Analytics. “Existing Home Sales” and “Pending Home Sales Index” copyright ©2020 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; all rights reserved; reprinted with permission.

SF Fed

Although closed sales sank in May, the West’s pending home sales index surged 56% in May, which suggests home sales will improve in June/July.

16

12.0

%

8.3%

7.6%

6.4

%

5.4

%

5.3%

4.1%

3.7%

1.0%

5.4

%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

ID AZ UT WA NV OR CA HI AK US

19-Mar 19-Dec 20-Mar 20-Apr

Low pre-pandemic inventory and declining interest ratessupported home prices through April despite lower sales.

Home price index includes all detached and attached single-family homes, including distressed sales. Source: CoreLogic.

SF Fed

Home Price Index(Year-Over-Year % Change)

Versus Pre-Crisis

Peak:+40% +0.1% +42% +43% -7% +35% +13% +23% +11% +13%

17

Relative price increases in the 12 months ending Apriltended to be stronger among lower-priced homes.

Home price index includes all detached and attached single-family homes, including distressed sales. Source: CoreLogic.

SF Fed

Home Price Index by Price Tier(Apr-19 = 100)

103106 106 106

107 107109

111

114

101

98

103105 105

106105

107108

95

100

105

110

115

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

AK HI CA OR NV WA UT AZ ID

All Tiers

Low Tier (125% of Median)

18

Lender size based upon prior-year total loan originations; for 2020: Large = lenders in the top 15% of lending institutions (volume above $1.25 billion); Mid-Size = lenders in the next 20% of lending institutions (volume between $379 million and $1.25 billion); Small = bottom 65% of lending institutions (volume less than $379 million); dollar thresholds for 2019 slightly lower; data for “All Lenders” is an average of the three size groupings; includes responses from nonbanks as well as banks, thrifts, and credit unions. 2Q20 survey administered May 5-18; prior surveys administered near the middle of each quarter. Source: Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey.

After improving significantly in February (pre-pandemic),mortgage lender sentiment swung to record lows in May.

8% 11% 3

% 0%

38%

10%

18% 14% 5

%

44

%

6% 8% 9%0

%4

3%

8%12

% 9%2%

42%

52%

44

% 52%

86%

15%

41% 5

2%39

%82

%10

%0

%

49%

45%

41%

63%

19%

48%

47%

44

%77

%15

%

60%

30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

2Q19

3Q19

4Q

191Q

202Q

20

2Q19

3Q19

4Q

191Q

202Q

20

2Q19

3Q19

4Q

191Q

202Q

20

2Q19

3Q19

4Q

191Q

202Q

20

LargeLenders

Mid-SizeLenders

SmallLenders

All Lenders

Increase

Decrease

Share of Lenders Expecting Change in Home Prices in the Next 12 Months

SF Fed

19

60%

90%

82%

51%

85%

60%

46%

85%

59%

43%

78%

56%

50%

91%

53%60%

87%

53%

39%

82%

47%

32%

52%

37%

75%

33%33%

43%

21% 20%24%

26%31%

82%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

200

8

2020

AK AZ UT WA NV ID OR HI CA

Major Metros Seattle So. CA SF Bay Area Other CA Metros

The benefit of lower mortgage rates was often more thanoffset by home price gains/possible COVID-19 income losses.

Un-weighted Average Metro Housing Opportunity Index, March Each Year(% of Home Sales Deemed Affordable to Median Family Income; Lower Ratio = Less Affordable)

SF Fed

Assumes median income (minus an assumed 7% haircut in 2020), 10% down payment, ratio of income-to-housing costs (principal, interest, taxes, and hazard insurance) of 28%, and a fixed-rate, 30-year mortgage; So. CA = Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside-San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura metros; SF Bay Area = San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, Napa, Vallejo, and Santa Cruz metros. Sources: National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo via Haver Analytics, FRB-SF calculations.

20

0

100

200

300

400

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-10

Ap

r-11

Ap

r-12

Ap

r-13

Ap

r-14

Ap

r-15

Ap

r-16

Ap

r-17

Ap

r-18

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-20

District 1-4 Family Units

District 5+ Family Units

Housing Permits – Twelfth District(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, 3-Month Moving Avg., Thousands)

Housing permits fell sharply across the District in April,although 12-month totals still edged up in most states.

SF Fed

* Trend lines as of April of each year. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics.

Level2004-2020*

Apr-20 vs.

Peak

% Multif.Apr-20

UT 109% 36%

WA 92% 46%

ID 81% 25%

OR 65% 47%

AZ 56% 29%

CA 52% 42%

HI 47% 40%

AK 46% 23%

NV 38% 31%

Dist. 63% 38%

New Authorized Housing Units

Trailing 12-Month

= trough = peakSF Fed

HI and OR saw increases in April, but ID, AK, AZ, and WA fell.

Permits declined in all states in April; most sharply in NV, CA, WA, and AK.

21

4

86

32

66

76

30

58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jun

-05

Jun

-06

Jun

-07

Jun

-08

Jun

-09

Jun

-10

Jun

-11

Jun

-12

Jun

-13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

Jun

-16

Jun

-17

Jun

-18

Jun

-19

Jun

-20

West

Nation

Homebuilder sentiment plunged in April, but rebounded inMay and June as states reopened and buyer traffic doubled.

Homebuilder Diffusion Index (Monthly, Index Above 50 Considered Positive)

Data are seasonally adjusted; index is a weighted average of current sales (59.2%), sales in next six months (13.6%), and traffic of prospective buyers (27.2%); West = Twelfth District plus CO, MT, NM, and WY. Source: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Builders Economic Council Survey via Haver Analytics.

SF Fed

22

RegionJun-

19Jun-20

West 71.0 47.3

South 67.3 46.0

Midwest 56.7 36.0

Northeast 59.7 28.0

Nation 64.3 41.7

Regional Home Builder Diffusion

Indices (Trailing 3 Mo. Avg.)

Like homes, CRE transaction volumes sank, in some cases approaching or rivaling April-May averages during 2009-10. 23

SF Fed

Includes transactions of properties valued $2.5 million and above. Source: Real Capital Analytics.

National CRE Transactions(Number of properties sold, April-May average for each year)

0

200

400

600

800

200

7

2020

200

7

2020

200

7

2020

200

7

2020

200

7

2020

Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel

CBRE-EA expects CRE vacancy rates to increase in2020, particularly the retail & apartment sectors.

10.5%

13.0%

6.2%

8.5%8.0%

11.8%

4.0%

6.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Office Industrial Retail Apartment

Nation

District

24

SF Fed

Includes the 18 to 16 largest markets in the District, weighted by stock; baseline forecasts as of 1Q20; “Nation” = sum of markets; shaded area = forecast. Source: CBRE-EA.

CRE Vacancy Rates(Historical from 1Q05 through 1Q20, forecast from 2Q20 to 4Q22)

Per CBRE-EA, cap rates will increase; apartment NOI slumpwill be large but quick.

-3%

-6%

-4%

-9%-11%

12%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Cap Rates (Left) 1-Year Change in NOI (Right)

Office Industrial Retail Apartment

25

SF FedIncludes the 18 to 16 largest markets in the District, weighted by stock; baseline forecasts as of 1Q20; shaded area = forecast; NOI = net operating income. Source: CBRE-EA.

CRE Capitalization Rates 1-Year Change in NOI Index(Historical from 1Q05 through 1Q20, forecast from 2Q20 to 4Q22)

Combined, capitalization rate and NOI shifts could reduce average District CRE property values, especially retail.

89.8

98.7

80.284.3

40

55

70

85

100

115

130

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Office Industrial Retail Apartment

Nation

District

26

SF FedIncludes the 18 to 16 largest markets in the District, weighted by stock; baseline forecasts as of 1Q20; “Nation” = sum of markets; shaded area = forecast. Source: CBRE-EA.

CRE Property Value Indices(1Q20 = 100; historical from 1Q05 through 1Q20, forecast from 2Q20 to 4Q22)

Net % Change 1Q20 to 2021 Trough:-11.2% -1.3% -19.8% -15.7%

Survey data was collected April 13-17; values below 10% not labeled. Source: RCLCO Real Estate Advisors.

CRE market participants expect hospitality and retailto fare the worst; industrial viewed as least affected.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Hospitality

Retail - Regional Mall

Resort Residential

Retail - Big Box/Power Center

Retail - Lifestyle

Senior Housing

Office

Student Housing

Retail - Convenience/Necessity

For-Sale Residential

Rental Apartments

Healthcare/Medical Office

Industrial

Dramatic(>20%)

Severe(10%-20%)

Moderate(5%-9%)

Minimal(

28

Earnings

Credit Quality

Loan Growth and Concentrations

Liquidity and Interest Rate Risk

Capital

Section 3 Commercial Bank Performance

For ongoing supervisory perspectives and guidance on COVID-19, please visithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/covid-19.htm

Note: Bank size groups are defined by total assets as “Very Small” (< $1B), “Small” ($1B - $10B), “Mid-Sized” ($10B - $50B), and “Large” (> $50B), which, for analytical reasons, differ slightly from supervisory asset thresholds. The “Large” bank

group covers banks based nationwide—given their broader geographic footprint and to afford a larger statistical sample—while the other three groups include banks headquartered in the Twelfth District.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/covid-19.htm

2.11

%

1.60

%1.6

3%1.1

2% 1.34

%

1.21%

1.23%

0.8

4%

-1.20%

-0.80%

-0.40%

0.00%

0.40%

0.80%

1.20%

1.60%

2.00%

2.40%

Dec

-05

Dec

-07

Dec

-09

Dec

-11

Dec

-13

Dec

-15

Dec

-17

Dec

-19

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Dec

-05

Dec

-07

Dec

-09

Dec

-11

Dec

-13

Dec

-15

Dec

-17

Dec

-19

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Pre-Tax After-Tax*

District

Nation

The District’s average 1Q ROAA ratio sank, hurt by weakernet interest income and surging provision expense ratios.

SF FedAverage = trimmed mean; YTD = year-to-date (annualized); ROAA = return on average assets (net income/average assets); *theoretical tax expense deducted from Subchapter S filers for after-tax ratio; TE = tax equivalent (yields and applicable tax expense adjusted for tax-exempt revenues).

Average YTD ROAA

29

ProfitComponent

Mar-19

Mar-20

Int. Inc. (TE) 4.61% 4.30%

Int. Exp. -0.63% -0.60%

Net Int. Inc. (TE) 3.99% 3.68%

Nonint. Inc. 0.53% 0.51%

Nonint. Exp. -2.90% -2.89%

Provision Exp. -0.06% -0.27%

Tax Exp. (TE) -0.36% -0.24%

Average YTD as % of Average AssetsTwelfth District

(Expenses = Negative Values)

Sheet1

Average YTD as % of Average AssetsTwelfth District(Expenses = Negative Values)

ProfitComponentMar-19Mar-20

Int. Inc. (TE)4.61%4.30%intinc_aa_ytd_trim10

Int. Exp.-0.63%-0.60%intexp_aa_ytd_trim10

Net Int. Inc. (TE)3.99%3.68%nim_aa_ytd_trim10

Nonint. Inc.0.53%0.51%nonintinc_aa_ytd_trim10

Nonint. Exp.-2.90%-2.89%nonintexp_aa_ytd_trim10

Provision Exp.-0.06%-0.27%provexp_aa_ytd_trim10

Tax Exp. (TE)-0.36%-0.24%in separate growth query

69%

7.08%

4.86%

4.54%4.47%

4.20%3.89%

2.63%

0.66% 0.63%50%

53%

56%

59%

62%

65%

68%

71%

74%

77%

80%

0.00%

0.80%

1.60%

2.40%

3.20%

4.00%

4.80%

5.60%

6.40%

7.20%

8.00%

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Loans / Assets (Right) Interest Income (Left) Net Interest Margin (Left) Interest Expense (Left) 3-Month U.S. Treasury Yield (Left)

Declining short-term interest rates and lower loan-to-assetratios weighed on asset yields and quarterly margins.

Average = trimmed mean (Twelfth District banks only); one-quarter annualized data; TE = tax equivalent. Source (quarterly average of 3-month U.S. Treasury rate at constant maturity): Federal Reserve via Haver Analytics.

SF Fed

30

Avg. Quarterly as % of Avg. Earning Assets (TE) Avg. Net Loans / Assets

3.80% 3.63%3.33%

2.66%

0.19% 0.30%0.66%

1.07%1.04%

1.34% 1.15%

0.52%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

District Very Small(< $1B)

District Small($1B - $10B)

District Mid-Sized($10B - $50B)

Nation Large(> $50B)

Net Interest Income Provision Expense* Pre-Tax Net Income

Average YTD % of Average Assets

Provisioning hurt profits at mid- and large-sized banks in particular, which typically adopted CECL in 1Q20.

SF Fed

31

Average = trimmed mean; YTD = year-to-date (annualized); CECL (current expected credit loss) requires lenders to consider potential credit losses over the life of a loan, which is often a longer time horizon than considered under the prior “incurred loss” allowance methodology; many publicly-traded firms adopted CECL in 1Q20; *among CECL adopters, provision expense includes provisions for credit losses on all financial assets that fall within the standard, not just loans and leases.

1.36%

2.71%

1.36% 1.43%

1.28%

1.81%

1.27% 1.31%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

District

Nation

Average ALLL or ACL for Loans & Leases / Loans and Leases not HFS (%)

Pandemic-driven provisions, plus initial CECL adjustments,contributed to increases in allowances for credit losses.

SF FedAverage = trimmed mean; ALLL = allowance for loans and leases (per incurred loss method); ACL = allowance for credit losses related to loans and leases (per CECL); HFS = held for sale; CECL = current expected credit losses (ASU 2016-13); most, but not all mid- and large-sized banks adopted CECL in 1Q20 (e.g., some had not yet adopted the standard because of non-calendar fiscal years; some opted to defer adoption as permitted under the CARES Act; some were not U.S. SEC filing firms).

32

2.24%2.09%

1.83%

1.16%

0.82%

1.34%

1.75%

1.21%1.40%

1.12%

0.88%

1.21%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

Consumer C&LD C&I CRE 1-4 Family Overall

Twelfth District All Other Districts

Average ALLL or ACL Coverage of Loan Type, % (Banks > $1 Billion)

District banks were more likely to hold higher allowances for credit losses against consumer, C&LD, and C&I loans.

SF FedAverage = trimmed mean; ALLL = allowance for loans and leases (per incurred loss method); ACL = allowance for credit losses related to loans and leases (per CECL); C&LD = construction and land development; C&I = commercial and industrial; CRE = commercial real estate, including multifamily and nonfarm nonresidential mortgages; limited to banks with total assets above $1 billion that itemized disaggregated ALLL or ACL data, including 68 banks based in the Twelfth District and 427 headquartered elsewhere in the nation.

33

4.4

%

10.3

%

36.8

%

63.8

%

8.0

%

3.6%

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

45.0%

60.0%

75.0%

90.0%

DistrictVery Small

($50B)

District Nation

12-Mos. Ending 12/31/18 12-Mos. Ending 12/31/19 3-Mos. Ending 3/31/20

Mid-Sized to Large banks, which were most likely to adoptCECL in 1Q20, reported especially large increases in ACLs.

SF Fed

Average Change in ALLL or ACL for Loans & Leases (%)

34

Average = trimmed mean; ALLL = allowance for loans and leases (per incurred loss method); ACL = allowance for credit losses related to loans and leases (per CECL); CECL = current expected credit losses (ASU 2016-13); most, but not all mid-and large-sized banks adopted CECL in 1Q20 (e.g., some had not yet adopted the standard because of non-calendar fiscal years; some opted to defer adoption as permitted under the CARES Act; some were not U.S. SEC filing firms); excludes banks that lacked ALLLs or ACLs.

2% 21% 75% 90% 15% 5%Estimated Share of Banks Adopting CECL in 1Q20

Sheet1

Estimated Share of Banks Adopting CECL in 1Q20

2%21%75%90%15%5%

50.5%

5.1%8.3%

37.0%

6.2%9.1%

17.9%

0.0% 0.0%

-5.7%-0.5% -0.9%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

District CECLAccounting Adopters

(15% of Banks)

District Non-CECLAccounting Adopters

(85% of Banks)

All District Banks

Overall Net Change Provisions Initial Adjustments* Net Chargeoffs

Growth in CECL allowances were driven partly by “Day 1”adjustments, but mainly by pandemic-driven provisions.

SF Fed

Average Change in ALLL or ACL for Loans & Leases / Beginning Balance, 1Q20

35

Average = trimmed mean; ALLL = allowance for loans and leases (per incurred loss method); ACL = allowance for credit losses related to loans and leases (per CECL); CECL = current expected credit losses (ASU 2016-13); *initial adjustments includes the “Day 1” impact of CECL adoption, generally on 1/1/2020, as well as other re-statements; most, but not all mid-and large-sized banks adopted CECL in 1Q20 (e.g., some had not yet adopted the standard because of non-calendar fiscal years; some opted to defer adoption as permitted under the CARES Act; some were not U.S. SEC filing firms); excludes banks that lacked ALLLs or ACLs.

District 100.0% 14.3% 13.2% 43.6% 1.3% 5.7%Nation 100.0% 12.5% 24.1% 24.4% 3.9% 5.4%

Average Share of Gross Loans & Leases, 3/31/2020

0.80%1.08%

0.69% 0.44% 0.41% 0.23%

0.00%

0.75%

1.50%

2.25%

3.00%

3.75%

4.50%

5.25%

Mar

-11

Mar

-14

Mar

-17

Mar

-20

Mar

-11

Mar

-14

Mar

-17

Mar

-20

Mar

-11

Mar

-14

Mar

-17

Mar

-20

Mar

-11

Mar

-14

Mar

-17

Mar

-20

Mar

-11

Mar

-14

Mar

-17

Mar

-20

Mar

-11

Mar

-14

Mar

-17

Mar

-20

All Loans& Leases

C&I 1-4 FamilyMortgages

Nonfarm-Nonresid.

Consumer C&LD

Total Past Due or Nonaccrual

Noncurrent

30-89 Days Past Due

Average Past Due 30+ Days or Nonaccrual / Gross Loans & Leases

Delinquency ratios edged up year-over-year, but timing andrelief measures precluded significant increases by March 31.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; C&I = commercial & industrial; C&LD = construction & land development; noncurrent = 90+ days past due or in nonaccrual status; average loan mix will not sum to 100% because of trimmed average properties and because not all loan categories are itemized above.

36

0.39% 0.28% 0.30% 0.55%0.38% 0.40% 0.37%

0.74%0.87% 0.72% 0.69%1.31%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

District Very Small(< $1B)

District Small($1B - $10B)

District Mid-Sized($10B - $50B)

Nation Large(> $50B)

Past Due 30-89 Days Noncurrent Total Past Due or Nonaccrual

The District’s community banks were more likely to reportyear-over-year increases in average past due loan rates.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; YTD = year-to-date (annualized); noncurrent = past due 90+ days or in nonaccrual status.

37Average Past Due 30+ Days or Nonaccrual / Gross Loans & Leases

0.02% 0.05% 0.08%0.41%0.03% 0.09% 0.15%

0.57%0.06%

0.43%

0.95% 1.47%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

District Very Small(< $1B)

District Small($1B - $10B)

District Mid-Sized($10B - $50B)

Nation Large(> $50B)

All Loans & Leases C&I Loans Consumer Loans

Average YTD Net Chargeoffs / Average Loans & Leases

Overall net chargeoff rates remained low; consumer andC&I losses spiked at mid- and large-sized banks, respectively.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; YTD = year-to-date (annualized); C&I = commercial and industrial.

38

8.5%

11.8%

6.3%

10.1%9.1%

8.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

29-M

ar5-

Ap

r12

-Ap

r19

-Ap

r26

-Ap

r3-

May

10-M

ay17

-May

24-M

ay31

-May

7-Ju

n14

-Ju

n21

-Ju

n Overall Investor: Ginnie Investor: Fannie/Freddie Investor: Other* Servicer: Depositories Servicer: IMBs

SF Fed

1-4 Family Mortgages in Forbearance (%)

Lenders pivoted to working with borrowers; credit stressthrough June varied by product, collateral, and location.

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Hotel

Retail

Multifamily

Office

Industrial

Delinquent In or Past Grace Period

CMBS Loans by Status, June 2020 (%)

*Other = private-label MBS and portfolio; IMB = independent CMBS = commercial mortgage-backed securities.mortgage bank; based upon count of loans. Source: Mortgage Source: Trepp.Bankers Association Forbearance and Call Volume Surveys.

SF Fed

39

32.2%

23.5%

4.7%

4.6%

3.1%

Homeowner and renter responses collected between June 18 and June 23 (shown as a share of responses for which payment status/confidence was specified); small business responses collected June 14 to June 20. Source: Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and Small Business Pulse Survey.

23%

19%

16%

16%

14%

14%

11%

10%

8% 7%

47%

41%

41%

35%

28%

27%

24%

24%

22%

21%

44

%4

3%4

1%4

0%

39%

39%

36%

33%

24%

16%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

NV

CA HI

US

AK

AZ ID UT

WA

OR

NV

OR

CA

US HI

AZ

WA

AK ID UT ID US

OR

WA

CA UT

AZ

NV HI

AK

Owner-OccupiedMortgage Payments

Tenant-OccupiedRent Payments

Small Business CashCoverage of Op. Expenses

Last Month: Deferred or Did Not Pay Next Month: No/Slight Confidence Able to Pay or Will Defer Cash on Hand Covers Less Than One Month or Unknown

Share of Surveyed Owners, Renters, or Small Businesses

Cash strains and uncertainty among borrowers couldlead to higher delinquencies once federal stimulus fades.

SF Fed

40

15.3%

-6.5%

12.9%

8.8%8.3%7.7%

-2.5%

5.9%4.8%

-7.0%

-3.5%

0.0%

3.5%

7.0%

10.5%

14.0%

17.5%

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

District

Nation

Average Year-over-YearNet Loan & Lease Growth

Average annual growth in net loans and leases accelerated;2020 had the strongest first quarter growth rate since 2016.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; growth rates are not merger-adjusted; includes loans and leases held for sale and for investment, net of allowances for loan and lease losses or allowances for credit losses.

7.0%

-7.0%

-3.5%

0.0%

3.5%

7.0%

10.5%

14.0%

17.5%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

20162017201820192020

Average Quarter-over-QuarterNet Loan & Lease Growth (Annual’d.)

|-- Twelfth District Banks Only --|

41

16.3

%

14.4

%

13.0

%

10.2

%

8.2%

7.1%

6.5%

4.8

%

4.6

%

8.3%

4.8

%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

AZ OR NV ID CA AK UT HI WA District Nation

Mar-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

Average annual loan growth at banks quickenedacross most District states compared with 4Q19.

SF Fed

Average Year-over-Year Net Loan Growth (%)

42

Average = trimmed mean; NV excludes zero loan and credit card banks; includes loans and leases held for sale and for investment, net of allowances for loan and lease losses or allowances for credit losses; rates are not merger-adjusted.

15%

9% 9% 8%6%

4%6%

10%

6% 6%

12%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Multifamily Non 1-4FamilyC&LD

Nonfarm-Nonresid.

Commercial& Industrial

1-4 FamilyConstruction

1-4 FamilyMortgages

District

Nation

Average Year-over-Year Loan Growth, Selected Loan Categories

Multifamily and C&I portfolio growth rates moved sharplyhigher year-over-year; NFNR also accelerated.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; growth rates are not merger-adjusted; C&I = commercial and industrial; nonfarm-nonresidential (NFNR) includes mortgages with owner-occupied collateral; C&LD = construction and land development.

43

Average = trimmed mean; ALLL = allowance for loans and leases (per incurred loss method); ACL = allowance for credit losses related to loans and leases (per CECL); Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Excluding Owner-Occupied = nonowner-occupied nonfarm-nonresidential (NFNR), construction and land development (C&LD), multifamily, and other CRE-purpose loans; components will not sum to overall CRE concentration because of trimmed average properties and other CRE-purpose loans not itemized here.

308%

229%

114%141% 143%

33%16%

34%

127%

69%

32% 14%0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

CREExcluding

Owner-Occupied

Nonowner-Occupied

NFNR

C&LD Multifamily

District

Nation

Average CRE Loans Outstanding / Tier 1 Capital + ALLL or ACL

CRE loan concentration ratios remainedhigh but relatively stable compared with 1Q19.

SF Fed

Twelfth District Including Owner-

Occupied:Mar-08 441%Mar-13 300%Mar-20 337%

44

Based on national sample of 20+ commercial and industrial (C&I) lenders and 31 commercial real estate (CRE) lenders; Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, April 2020.

14% 4

5%

40

%

10%

5% 39% 45% 47% 55

%

26%

23%

96%

71%

10%

5%

30%

36%

23%

17% 3

%

16% 10

%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pre

cau

tion

ary

Cas

h

Low

er In

tern

al F

un

ds

Acc

t. R

ec. F

inan

cin

g

Inve

nto

ry F

inan

cin

g

Swit

ched

Len

der

Inve

st. I

n P

lan

t/E

qu

ipt.

Mer

ger

s &

Acq

uis

itio

ns

Low

er In

tere

st R

ates

CR

E A

cqu

isit

ion

Bet

ter

Ren

tal O

utl

ook

Swit

ched

Len

der

Pre

cau

tion

ary

Cas

h

Low

er In

tern

al F

un

ds

Commercial & Industrial(3-Month Drivers)

Commercial Real Estate(12-Month Drivers)

Very Important

Somewhat Important

Factors Driving Increased Demand for C&I (3 Months) and CRE (12 Months)

Precautionary cash needs fueled C&I growth in 1Q20; interest rates and property turnover led annual CRE loan growth.45

SF Fed

42%

40%

52%52%

49%

2%

15%

39%

16%

30%

15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

200

5

2010

2015

2020

200

5

2010

2015

2020

200

5

2010

2015

2020

200

5

2010

2015

2020

Commercial &Industrial

CommercialReal Estate (CRE)

1-4 FamilyMortgages

Consumer

Small Borrowers

Non-Traditional/Non QM-Jumbo***

All CRE/ Nonfarm-Nonresid.*

Multi-family

C&LD

Mid-LargeBorrowers Credit

Card

All/Prime/GSEEligible**

Auto

Net % of Lenders Reporting Tighter (Easier) Loan Standards during Quarter(April of Each Year)

Surveyed lenders tightened standards considerablyacross most loan types as COVID-19 transmission spread.

SF Fed

Based on a sample of 70+/- loan officers at domestic banks (number varies by period and loan type); C&LD = construction and land development; *includes all CRE loans prior to Oct-13; **includes all residential mortgages prior to Apr-07, “prime” mortgages Apr-07 to Oct-14, and GSE-Eligible starting Jan-15; ***includes “nontraditional” mortgages Apr-07 to Oct-14 and Non QM Jumbo mortgages starting Jan-15. Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, (https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htm) via Haver Analytics.

46

Eas

ier

< <

|

> >

Tig

hte

r

Based on sample 70+/- senior lenders; COF = cost of funds; IO = interest only; DSC = debt service coverage; LTV = loan-to-value. Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, April of each year.

21.3%18.4% 18.1%

1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0%

17.2%15.6%

11.0%14.3%

18.4% 15.9%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

SpreadOver COF

LTVRatio

DSCRatio

MaxMaturity

MarketArea

Max LoanSize

IOPeriod

Construction & Land Dev.

Multifamily

Nonfarm-Nonresidential

Net % of Lenders Tightening (Easing) CRE Standards During Prior 12 Mos.(April of Each Year)

Year-over-year, CRE lenders were most likely to tightenpricing spreads and requirements for DSC and LTV.47

SF Fed

Eas

ier

< <

|

> >

Tig

hte

r

135%

132%

101%105%

96%

113%

85%80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15-A

pr

22-A

pr

29-A

pr

6-M

ay13

-May

20-M

ay27

-May

3-Ju

n10

-Ju

n17

-Ju

n

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15-A

pr

22-A

pr

29-A

pr

6-M

ay13

-May

20-M

ay27

-May

3-Ju

n10

-Ju

n17

-Ju

n

Assets Liabilities

Cash & Equiv.** C&I CRE*** 1-4 Family Mortgage Consumer Total Loans & Leases Large CDs Other Deposits Borrowings

Aggregate Balances at Commercial Banks* (Seasonally Adjusted, 4/1/2020 = 100%)

Despite lender reservations, C&I loans, deposits, and cash,surged after 1Q20, fueled by PPP loans and stimulus deposits.

SF Fed*Extrapolated based upon a weekly, nationwide sampling of “small” domestic commercial banks (excludes 25 largest banks); **includes cash, due from accounts, federal funds sold, and reverse repurchase agreements; ***commercial real estate (CRE) includes nonfarm nonresidential, multifamily, and construction & land development mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve H.8.

48

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1Q19

3Q19

1Q20

1Q19

3Q19

1Q20

1Q19

3Q19

1Q20

1Q19

3Q19

1Q20

1Q19

3Q19

1Q20

FundingCosts

DepositCompetit.

LoanDemand

CapitalAccess

EconomicConditions

Improve Same Worse

In early April, bankers’ optimism for prospective loandemand, capital access, and economic conditions dimmed.

SF Fed

49Expectations in Next 12 Months – West Area

1Q20 data based on a nationwide survey of bank chief executive officers, chief financial officers, and presidents at 515 institutions, queried between April 2 and April 15, 2020; confidence was scored based on perceptions of funding costs, deposit competition, loan demand, and access to capital (but not economic conditions); West = Kansas City/San Francisco Districts; Midwest = Chicago/Cleveland/Minneapolis/St. Louis Districts; South = Atlanta/Dallas/Richmond Districts; Northeast = Boston/New York/Philadelphia Districts. Source: Promontory Interfinancial Network Bank Executive Business Outlook Surveys.

40

50

60

3Q16

1Q17

3Q17

1Q18

3Q18

1Q19

3Q19

1Q20

Midwest Northeast South West

Bank Confidence Index>50 = Expansionary

71.3

% 73.

7%

63.0

%

70.3

%69

.3%

64.9

%

65.4

%

57.9

% 66.

0%

65.5

%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

SF Fed

Avg. Net Loans and Leases/Assets

Year-over-year, bank balance sheet mix shifted awayfrom loans and towards more liquid instruments.

23.3

%

18.2

%

30.3

%

24.3

%25

.3%

29.9

%

29.0

%

36.7

%

28.8

%29

.4%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

District

Nation

Avg. Securities & Liquid Invest./Assets

*All data are averages (trimmed means); net loans and leases = loans and leases held for sale and for investment, net of allowances for loan and lease losses; liquid investments = cash, due from balances, interest bearing balances, and federal funds sold & securities purchased under agreements to resell.

SF Fed

50

As long-term interest rates sank, bond portfolio valuesincreased, lifting net unrealized gains at District banks.

Average = trimmed mean (Twelfth District banks only); AFS = available-for-sale; changes in valuation reported net of deferred tax effects; UST = end of period U.S. Treasury yield at a constant maturity (from Federal Reserve via Haver Analytics); AFS securities excludes equities beginning with the March 2018 Call Report.

-0.85%

-2.33%

1.55%

3.85%

3.04% 3.05%

0.70%

-2.80%

-2.10%

-1.40%

-0.70%

0.00%

0.70%

1.40%

2.10%

2.80%

3.50%

4.20%

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Average Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) on AFS Securities / AFS Securities 10-Yr. UST Yield

SF Fed

(Losses)

51

8.3%

4.8%

12.6%

6.8%

10.2%

5.9%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

18.0%

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

Twelfth District Nation

Net Loans and Leases

NMDs - Nonint. Bearing

NMDs - All

Average Year-over-Year Change

Growth in NMDs, especially noninterest-bearing accounts accelerated as interest rates declined and markets skidded.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; net loans and leases = loans and leases held for sale and for investment, net of allowances for loan and lease losses; growth rates are not merger-adjusted.

52

19.0%

36.1%34.3%

16.1%

5.1% 5.0% 4.1% 2.8%3.9% 1.9%1.0%0.0%

6.0%

12.0%

18.0%

24.0%

30.0%

36.0%

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Jumbo NMDs CDs(IncludingBrokered)

CDs > $250K Borrowings BrokeredDeposits*< $250K

District

Nation

Average Liability Category / Assets

Noncore funding levels were stable; District banks continuedto report an above-average reliance on jumbo NMDs.

SF Fed

Average = trimmed mean; jumbo = greater than $250K; NMD = nonmaturity deposit; CD = certificate of deposit; borrowings = federal funds purchased, repurchase agreements, and other borrowed money; *beginning with the June 2018 Call Reports, qualifying (generally well-rated and well-capitalized) banks could discontinue reporting reciprocal deposits as brokered so long as they aggregated less than $5 billion or 20% of total liabilities, as permitted under the Economic Growth,Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (EGRRCPA) of 2018.

Average “Brokered” Reciprocal Deposits* /

Total Brokered DepositsMar-18 Mar-20

District 42.9% 0.3%

Nation 28.8% 0.6%

53

| ---------------- Noncore Funding Sources ---------------- |

29.1%

44.2%

31.3%

46.2%

42.7%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Mar

-18

Mar

-19

Mar

-20

District

Nation

Average % of Loans & Securities Repricing > 3 Years

Average = trimmed mean.

Negligible short-term interest rates likely contributedto further asset lengthening in 1Q20.

SF Fed

54

13.68%13.70%

12.66% 12.13%11.79%

11.05%

10.13%9.37%

6.00%

9.00%

12.00%

15.00%

18.00%

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

District Very Small(< $1B)

District Small($1B - $10B)

District Mid-Sized($10B - $50B)

Nation Large(> $50B)

Total Risk-Based

Tier 1 Risk-Based

Tier 1 Leverage*

Average Regulatory Capital Ratios by Bank Size

The introduction of CBLR and CECL accounting in 1Q20 complicated capital comparisons with prior periods.

SF Fed

55

Average = trimmed mean; *based upon community bank leverage ratio (CBLR) or tier 1 leverage ratio; beginning 1Q20, risk-based capital (RBC) averages became unavailable for banks under $10B that adopted CBLR, which limited the utility of RBC time series comparisons; beginning 1Q15 for most banks (1Q14 for some larger/more complex banks) some capital instruments were phased out and higher risk weights were applied to some asset and off-balance sheet commitment categories; beginning 2Q18, banks could opt to implement changes to the definition of high volatility commercial real estate, which may have reduced risk weightings for a generally small subset of assets previously weighted at 150%.

Roughly 60% of District Mid-Sized and 80% of Nation Large banks

were CECL adopters that elected to delay/phase in capital impacts.

42% of District Very Small and 23% of District Small banks opte