Executive Summary - Sustainable Mobility

The First EnergyLab Report

on Electric Mobility

The questions addressed and the major conclusions drawn

Executive Summary

The First EnergyLab Report on Electric Mobility – Executive Summary

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This booklet offers a summary of the themes that are dealt with in the book on Electric

Mobility published in September 2011 and presented in Università Commerciale L.

Bocconi, in Milan.

The idea of extracting a brief summary from the longer document arose out of a desire

to make available to a wider public an insight into the extensive and detailed

investigation that the Milan-based foundation Fondazione EnergyLab has been carrying

out in relation to the theme of electric mobility in Italy. In particular, the booklet

reproduces the executive summary of the original text.

The work is the product of the combined efforts of a group of experts that gravitate

around the Laboratorio Mobilità Sostenibile (Sustainable Mobility Laboratory), a project

conceived of, developed and promoted by Fondazione EnergyLab. The contents of the

booklet fully express the multi-disciplinary approach characteristic of the work of the

laboratory. The research in question lasted for over a year and the final result is the fruit

of a highly articulated and carefully orchestrated effort that engaged a range of figures

from various areas of the academic, government and business worlds.

In particular, the protagonists included professors from Milan’s five universities and

various research centres – members of the foundation – as well as a range of people

from the government and business worlds.

Editor Lanfranco Senn Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

Authors

Ugo Arrigo Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca

Morris Brenna Politecnico di Milano

Stefano Campanari Politecnico di Milano

Allegra Canepa Università degli Studi di Milano

Silvia Celaschi Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico-RSE SpA

Lucia Dal Negro Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Giacomo Di Foggia Università Carlo Cattaneo – LIUC

Federica Foiadelli Politecnico di Milano

Iva Gianinoni Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico-RSE SpA

Pierpaolo Girardi Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico-RSE SpA

Gabriele Grea Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

Giuseppe Maurizio Riva Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico-RSE SpA

Dario Zaninelli Politecnico di Milano

Roberto Zoboli Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore


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The EnergyLab Foundation was founded

in Milan in 2007 with the goal of creating

a network of actors in the energy field

including universities, the business world

and regional and local government. It is

a non-profit organization whose

members include Milan’s 5 major

universities. The foundation promotes

research and innovation in all areas of

the energy sector, operating by way of 6

laboratories focusing on different

themes: Renewable Energies, Smart

Grids, Nuclear Security, Electric

Mobility, Energy Efficiency and

Access to Energy in Developing

Countries.

The foundation’s legal status as a

participatory foundation makes it

possible for it to undertake non-profit

activities, furnishing support to its

members and present and future

partners.

The Scientific Members

Università Commerciale “L. Bocconi”

Università degli Studi di Milano Bicocca

Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Politecnico di Milano

Università degli Studi di Milano

RSE – Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico

To Contact Us:

The EnergyLab Foundation

Piazza Trento, 13

20135 Milan (Italy)

Phone +39 02 7720.5265

Fax +39 02 7720.5060

[email protected]

www.energylabfoundation.org


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Executive summary

Sustainable mobility is the theme of one of the 5 energy-related work/study

laboratories set up by Fondazione EnergyLab.

Like each of the other laboratories (on nuclear security, renewable energy sources,

smart grids and access to energy), the laboratory on sustainable mobility carries out

a variety of activities including research, the organisation of seminars and

conferences and the running of on-going meetings of experts and operators. The

ultimate aim of all the laboratories is to furnish academics, industry protagonists and

decision-makers with the opportunity to engage more effectively in the scientific,

cultural and professional promotion of energy-related themes of prime importance to

the development of the country.

This general objective also lay behind the decision to set up a laboratory on

sustainable mobility.

In fact, in Italy, especially in urban and metropolitan areas characterised by dense

human settlement and extensive productive activity, the level of mobility is so high

that for the people living and working there it generates distinct categories of

economic and social costs - so-called “negative externalities”, in particular congestion

and pollution. While it is practically impossible to determine who in particular has

been directly responsible for generating these problems, there can be no doubt that

today they significantly reduce the quality of life of the community.

Even a cursory look at the data on urban mobility relating to the last few years

dramatically reveals a set of trends that cannot but provoke serious concern. Below

we furnish four sets of figures on some of the most problematic areas.


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Structural indexes of the demand for mobility (Figures 1 and 2)

The overall demand for mobility on an average working day

Total number of trips The total number of passenger kilometres travelled

(in millions) (in millions)

Private mobility (Figures 3 and 4)

Total number of vehicles in circulation

Number of motor vehicles Rate of vehicle ownership

Number of motor vehicles (in 1,000s) and rate of vehicle ownership (vehicles per every 100

inhabitants) – Italy

Number of motor vehicles / Rate of vehicle ownership

Number of motor vehicles

Rate of vehicle ownership (Italy)

Rate of vehicle ownership (large cities)

Population as of 31/12

Public mobility (Figures 5 and 6)

Number of trips on public transport as a percentage of total trips

Number of trips by “rail” (trams, tube and local trains) as a percentage of the total number of trips on public

transport in cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants


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The performance of local public transport companies (Figures 7 and 8)

Number of vehicle kilometres provided Number of passengers carried

(index numbers) (index numbers)

Source: ISFORT-ASSTRA (Associazione Trasporti [Note: Association of public transport

providers])1

These graphics clearly show that the overall demand for mobility is growing

constantly both in terms of the raw number of individual trips effected and the total

number of passenger kilometres travelled.

For the most part this demand is being met by private vehicles, whose number is

growing constantly especially in large urban conglomerations.

By contrast, the percentage of trips on public transport is moving in the opposite

direction even though there is – obviously above all in the big cities – a slight

increase in the amount of transport by “rail” (trams, tube and local trains).

So far as the supply side is concerned, one important feature to note is the

improvement in the performance of local public transport companies. This is the fruit

of the highly desirable – and, for that matter, inevitable – process of rationalisation

that has invested the sector over recent years.

The environmental consequences of this situation have been illustrated very

effectively by the Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (The

Advanced Institute for Environmental Protection and Research) (ISPRA) in its VI

1 Source, ISFORT (Istituto Superiore di Formazione e Ricerca per i Trasporti - Advanced Institute for

Training and Research in the Transport Industry) and ASSTRA, Osservatorio permanente sulla Mobilità

Urbana Sostenibile, edizione 2010 (Permanent Observatory on Sustainable Urban Mobility, published

2010).


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Rapporto Annuale sulla Qualità dell’Ambiente Urbano (6th Annual Report on the

Quality of the Urban Environment). The institute has pointed out how some air

quality objectives have been reached on a national level in respect of some primary

pollutants, i.e. those emitted directly from sources (e.g.: SO2, CO, Pb). So far as

these pollutants are concerned, the reduction in emissions has derived directly from

the elimination/reduction of the polluting element in fuels and/or from the

introduction of devices for reducing polluting emissions. On the other hand, other air

quality objectives fixed in respect of both primary and secondary pollutants (the

latter being those that form in the atmosphere by way of chemical reactions, e.g.:

PM10, NO2, O3) have not been reached.

The Advanced Institute’s 6th Annual Report also notes that most of the various types

of polluting emissions are on the decline. This is true above all of primary pollutants

thanks - as we pointed out above - to the direct elimination of such elements from

fuels and/or to the adoption of pollution reduction technologies. So far as other

pollutants are concerned, up to now the reduction of the emissions has been less

effective. In this regard see Figure 9 below, which represents alongside the relevant

data in relation to motor vehicle kilometres travelled the trends over time in the

annual emissions of a range of pollutants.

So far as motor vehicles are concerned, CO2 emissions have been growing at a

slower rate than the number of kilometres travelled thanks to an improvement in the

performance of combustion engines and in particular diesel engines. The drastic

reduction in the sulphur content of petrol and diesel has resulted in the near total

disappearance of SO2 emissions. In addition, the adoption of increasingly strict

norms on motor vehicle emissions has led to a significant reduction in the emissions

of nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter. In fact, these currently stand at

around 50% of their levels in 1990.

Motor vehicles: kilometres travelled and emissions of pollutants

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

veic_km

CO2

NOX

SOX

PM2.5

Source: Elaborated by RSE – Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico SpA (Research into the

EnergySystem, Joint stock company) on the basis of data provided by ISPRA


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Every attempt to act on mobility in such a way as to reduce congestion and pollution

– and thereby improve the quality of life of the community – constitutes a

component of an overall policy effort aimed at rendering mobility “sustainable” in

space and over time.

And the number of attempts that have in fact been made has been huge. This in

itself testifies not only to the existence of a very widespread awareness of the

seriousness of the problem but also to the complexity of the solutions to be

implemented in order to achieve effective results.

The various initiatives have gone from the efforts that many motor vehicle

manufactures have made to adjust their thinking towards vehicles powered by

energy sources other than petrol to those of the producers of fuels and devices for

reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere; from the development of

infomobility technologies to the creation of new materials with which to construct

certain infrastructures (for the absorption of dust particles and noise); from attempts

to achieve a correct balance between the road- and rail- (as well as water-) bound

transportation of passengers and goods to the reorganisation of public and private

transport. And not to be left off this list are the urban and regional planning policies

that have rendered mobility more fluid.

Even to talk about sustainable mobility, then – let alone to seek to achieve it –

constitutes a challenge of great complexity and vital importance.

Fondazione EnergyLab’s Laboratory on Sustainable Mobility aspires to contribute to

meeting this challenge but at the same time it is well aware that it is not possible to

tackle the problem from all points of view at one and the same time.

For this reason, by way of making a start on its activity of promoting technical know-

how and cultural awareness in relation to sustainable mobility, the laboratory chose

to concentrate on just one of the possible solutions to the more general problems:

the introduction and widespread use of electric mobility. This alone is a challenge of

huge complexity due to the intricate interdependence of the numerous factors at

play within it.

This first Report on Sustainable Mobility, the fruit of the initial work of the laboratory,

has sought to confront these factors from a highly interdisciplinary point of view.

This is the reason why it has been divided into seven chapters, which together seek

to cover the various themes, bringing to bear the full weight of all the technical-

scientific expertise available in the various Milan universities and research centres

that participate in the laboratory.

Chapter 1 (Models of Sustainable Mobility) illustrates in a synthetic manner the

various outcomes that might emerge from the numerous combinations of electrical

technologies being adopted, from the relevant legal-regulatory context and from the

orientation and behaviour of the potential users of electric mobility.


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Chapter 2 (The State of the Art of Electric Vehicle Technologies and Expected

Developments) offers a comprehensive account both of the most “mature” electric

vehicle technologies currently being developed (some already in the production

phase, others presently being tested) and of the systems for accumulating energy in

its various forms including the characteristics of the batteries involved. It also opens

a window on the technologies of combustible cells and the as yet unresolved

problems involved in their application.

Chapter 3 (An Analysis of the Social Acceptance and Demand) shows – by way of

analysing among other things a number of empirical studies – that the demand for

electric vehicles is also very difficult to establish. There is a great deal of suspicion

and hesitancy as well as concrete concerns about cost and uncertain expectations

about the real effects of possible future incentives. All this does little to provide

producers and political-administrative decision-makers with “guarantees” in relation

to the market.

Chapter 4 (The Introduction of Electric Vehicles into the Electricity System) illustrates

how electric mobility is inevitably tied to the production and distribution of the

electric energy on which it relies. It analyses the various ways in which electric

vehicles can be connected to the electricity network (the problem of recharging),

examines some of the solutions that have already been adopted by motor vehicle

manufacturers and evaluates the benefits and opportunities (incentives and

regulation) that owners of electric vehicles currently enjoy in respect of their

consumption of electricity.

Chapter 5 (An Analysis of the System) extends the perspective beyond the

immediate interests of producers and users of electric vehicles to examine the major

overall implications of the development of electric mobility: from the environmental

and energy-related benefits to the impact on the motor vehicle sector as a whole, to

the implications on urban and regional planning and development, to the need to

adapt and empower the regulatory framework so as to facilitate a more widespread

use of electric mobility.

Finally, Chapter 6 (A World-wide Survey of Experimental Studies and Pilot Projects)

examines a number of pilot projects already in place in other countries in order not

only to throw light on the feasibility of sustainable mobility in general but also to

identify the most successful initiatives carried out up to date so as to be able to

determine how best to promote the spread of electric mobility.


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In this first edition of the report it was decided to not analyse analogous pilot studies

in Italy because they are still in a nascent phase and yet to take solid form.

To draw conclusions from a report that merely set itself the objective of beginning to

offer an account of the various problems relating to the spread of electric mobility in

Italy would without doubt be excessively ambitious and presumptuous.

Nevertheless, at least in regard to one question in particular, the studies carried out

by the laboratory’s experts are in complete agreement: the achievement of the long-

term objective of facilitating the widespread use of electric mobility will ultimately

depend on the manner and speed with which the various players manage to set in

motion in an irreversible way the initial start-up process.

In fact, notwithstanding the widespread belief that electric mobility does have a

future, that this future will see its spread on a very large scale and that this spread

will bring with it substantial benefits for society – on the environmental, economic

and transport plane – there can nonetheless be no doubt that there also exist a

number of factors that will act as obstacles to – or at least present problems for – a

rapid development of electric mobility. These factors include the following:

a) the very perception on the part of the various producers of vehicles, batteries, associated technologies etc. that electric mobility does constitute a huge business

opportunity and, precisely because of this perception, the emergence between

them of a fierce form of competition, resulting in a marked reluctance to form

alliances, in particular in the current pioneering phase when such alliances are of

vital importance;

b) the cultural immaturity of the demand, whose orientation in the face of market

stimuli (prices, quality and performances) does not yet encompass a long-term

view and is therefore conditioned (quite understandably) by the characteristics of

the current offer (costs, recharging, logistical difficulties etc);

c) the slowness (and complexity) of the decision-making processes of the relevant

government bodies, which, on the one hand, have to attend to a wide range of

problems (the safeguarding of alternative markets, overall energy policies,

infrastructure works to adjust the urban environment, the determination of tariffs

and the provision of incentives) that together constitute a highly complex

regulatory challenge and which, on the other, are in any case sensitive to a series

of interests in conflict with each other and for this reason are not sufficiently

unified and decided in their decisions;

d) the “resistance” expressed in various forms and degrees by actors in other

markets and sectors in the mobility field: from vehicle manufacturers to

producers of fuels, from mobility services providers to the unions;

e) a number of technical and technological problems that still characterise the sector

(or the field), above all in terms of the economic advantageousness of adopting –

in the short, medium or long term – alternative solutions. On the other hand, the


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technologies in themselves appear to be a much less constricting problem in that

they are for the most part already available and have been tested sufficiently.

Generally speaking, it would be

reasonable to say that the biggest

obstacle to the rapid spread of

electric mobility (and not just in

Italy) is constituted by the need to

promote solutions that - while

nonetheless remaining efficient -

make provision for a proficuous

meeting of the various interests at

play. Demand and supply do not

yet trust each other enough to be

able to gamble together on the

activation of an irreversible process

of introducing electric mobility.

Consumers are waiting for prices to fall whereas producers are not yet able to

announce (or realise) that fall without the consumers expressing themselves in a

more explicit manner. And for their part local and regional government authorities

are holding back to take note of the minimal stable level at which electric mobility

establishes itself before making provision for the necessary infrastructure.

The right combination of decisions needs to be delicately set in train at one and the

same moment so as to avoid providing excuses for resistance on the part of the

various interests at play.

While these are the general conclusions that can be drawn from the study as a

whole, each separate part offers a range of often extremely precise stimuli for

thought. In the conclusions that follow we endeavour to examine these from a range

of perspectives and not necessarily just in terms of the particular themes of the

individual chapters.

These more specific conclusions draw attention both to a number of findings that are

now widely accepted and to a series of problematic issues still open to debate.

In the combined sequential process of the evolution of the supply of electric mobility

and the evolution of the demand for electric mobility there is no doubt that the

former evolution is more “mature”, i.e. that it has already set in place and for the

most part consolidated investment in research and technological innovation, by now

even arriving at the point of facilitating an advanced phase of experimental

production.

In fact, vehicles with electric propulsion now boast engines that are not only

characterised by a total absence of exhaust emissions but also by a level of

efficiency superior to that of all other systems of propulsion in existence today.


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Indeed, today, after decades of alternating phases of interest and lack of interest, all

the major automobile manufacturers appear to be responding positively to this new

promising opportunity to relaunch the crisis-ridden sector by offering in their product

range – whether current or in one or two years time – one or more electric options,

be it battery-powered and/or of a hybrid type chargeable by way of the electricity

network. In 2010 industry experts formally recognised the maturity of the

technology, assigning the Car of the Year Award for the first time to plug-in electric

or hybrid models being introduced into the market. For the onboard accumulation of

energy the most widely used batteries are lithium-ion batteries, characterised by an

energy density sufficient to guarantee a driving autonomy of over 150 kilometres

(more than sufficient in particular for use in an urban environment) and by a number

of charge/discharge cycles capable of permitting electric vehicles to cover distances

in the order of those typical of conventional vehicles. Some EU forecasts have

identified the potential market for electric vehicles in the order of from 1-2% of sales

in 2020 to a range between 11% and 30% in 2030.

In the medium- to long-term period the use of electric vehicles with hydrogen-

powered fuel cells constitutes one of the most promising alternatives to operate

alongside the technology of battery-powered electric vehicles; their potential in

terms of low consumption and zero polluting emissions and their possible application

even in medium- and large-size vehicles or in heavy vehicles makes them a

candidate to be a fundamental player in vehicle propulsion for transport in the near

future. Extensive research and development programmes carried out by various

manufacturers in North America, Europe and Japan have shown that in the field of

fuel cell vehicles hydrogen fuel cell vehicles offer levels of performance, adaptability

and comfort comparable to those of traditional vehicles. Starting out from these

results attention has shifted to the possibility of actually producing the vehicles

commercially, an undertaking which would certainly be rendered even more feasible

by the advantages offered by economies of scale and mass production. The most

recent applications of the technology in question have ranged from scooters, to

automobiles of various segments (principally medium- to small-size vehicles), to

buses. In order for hydrogen to become a widely used fuel, it will be necessary not

just to identify more effective storage technologies but also to set in place an

efficient transportation and distribution network with the characteristics that users of

traditional fuels are used to. The transition to a widespread use of hydrogen will

presumably take place only gradually over the medium to long term, starting out

from a process of experimentation in close proximity to urban areas, in particular by

progressively developing refuelling stations for fleets of vehicles circulating within a

limited range of kilometres and in the meantime possibly making use of other fuel

cell vehicles equipped with onboard hydrogen production systems, starting out from

other liquid (biofuels, methanol, LPG) or gaseous (natural gas or hydrogen mixtures)


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fuels that are either already available in the existing distribution network or that can

be easily introduced into it.

So far as the demand for electric mobility is concerned, notwithstanding an

increasingly widespread sensibility towards the environment, the preparedness of

consumers to change their mobility and driving behaviour and move towards electric

mobility remains largely uncharted territory. Information on the profiles of early

adopters and mainstream consumers in the various potential markets remains limited

both because of the novelty of the electric mobility technology itself and because the

choices of consumers in the field of mobility and motor vehicles in general are highly

complex and very difficult to predict.

The profile of the potential buyer of an electric vehicle in Europe takes the form of a

young man or woman who has a high level of education, enjoys a medium to high

income and lives in an urban area. In contraposition to early adopters with these

characteristics, two other categories have been identified: people who will not

become buyers of electric vehicles (rural, low income, low level of education) and

people characterised by a propensity to wait for electric vehicles to become more

mature and reliable. This overall situation distinguishes the market for electric

vehicles at the present time as a niche market. The eventual success of electric

vehicles amongst consumers has to overcome obstacles of cost and comparability

both in respect of traditional mobility and in respect of the alternatives constituted

by other low-impact vehicles. The cost factor remains important together with the

problem of recharging and the problem of the autonomy of the vehicle over long

distances. It is only by way of an adequate combination of these three elements, i.e.

one which eliminates the perceived disadvantage of electric vehicles, that there will

emerge a greater openness on the part of consumers towards electric mobility.

With regard to the drivers of the demand for electric mobility and their contribution

to the definition of future models of mobility, at the present time it is not possible to

isolate the environment-related motivations in themselves in that they are very

closely interconnected with particular social and local contexts. In fact, the major

finding to emerge from our analysis is that the environmental motivation is not

sufficient to generate substantial interest in the case where it is not backed-up by

improvements of a technological character (autonomy, reliability), by economic

convenience (costs, incentives) and by factors of a psychological nature (the new

vehicles - at least in an initial phase - have to find a niche in the market as products

with a very high level of innovation and in some way become the distinguishing

element of a particular “style of life”). Moreover, it is essential that the demand and

the supply meet up with each other in contexts of a fully articulated nature, i.e. in

contexts characterised by an effective regulatory-institutional framework, by efficient

local/regional/national infrastructures, by a fully functional interface with the

electricity system and by impacts generated by the phenomenon of electric mobility


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itself that are not negative in character and that therefore do not compromise its

social acceptability.

So far as the normative framework for electric mobility is concerned, the regulation

of questions relating to the development and affirmation of electric vehicles is still in

a developmental phase, with different degrees of progress at the EU and national

levels.

In particular, the European Union, as well as issuing a number of directives and

drawing up action plans aimed at delineating a strategy for electric transport in

general, is working towards the introduction of a set of European parameters for the

circulation and spread of electric vehicles. Some interesting initiatives in this direction

are the proposal to obligatorily apply the ruling on the homologation of motor

vehicles with a view to simplifying administrative processes and the introduction of a

mechanism of “super credits” to incentivate the use of electric vehicles.

Still at the level of the EU emphasis has repeatedly been given to the important role

that electric vehicles can play in reducing emissions in the transport sector, thereby

contributing to the achievement of the objectives fixed for 2020. Also worthy of

mention in this context is the

consideration being given to the

utility of evaluating the tie between

the production of renewable energies

and the satisfaction of the increase in

the overall demand for energy

following upon the large-scale spread

of electric vehicles.

In keeping with the relevant legal

and regulatory considerations the

policy guidelines furnished at the EU

level are aimed at promoting a low

carbon mobility based on a high level of energy efficiency and a growing use of

renewable energy sources for energy production.

The EU strategy underlines the need to pursue these objectives by way of a set of

measures including the development of an infrastructure network in support of

electric mobility and the implementation of the “green cars” initiative to promote new

technologies through a combination of research, the definition of common technical

standards and infrastructure policies.

At the national level the situation is more complex. In fact, at the present time a

discussion is taking place in parliament on two legislative initiatives dealing with the

theme of electric mobility but their fate both in respect of the actual outcome and in

terms of the time scales involved is still uncertain. One of the two initiatives in

question (the so-called Ghiglia Bill) has the distinct virtue of attempting to confront

in a comprehensive manner the issue of electric vehicles by regulating concurrently


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the components of incentivation, building, infrastructure etc, but, at the same time,

it also involves a range of problems, the most important of which is the lack of

financial coverage for the planned interventions.

Something that is of great interest so far as Italy is concerned are the initiatives that

have been taken up to today by the Autorità per l’Energia Electtrica e il Gas (AEEG)

(Regulatory Authority for Electricity and Gas). In fact, as well as resolving a range of

technical problems (e.g. the possibility of installing multiple recharging points in

private buildings), the authority has sought to delineate a range of possible solutions

for some of the major questions that need to be resolved in order to facilitate the

widespread use of electric vehicles (e.g. the organisation of recharging services, the

issue of tariffs, the recharging network, the possible recourse to the use of smart

grids etc.).

Finally, so far as the local/regional level is concerned, it is worth pointing out the

important role that will be played by the protagonists of local/regional planning

especially at the moment in which there is a shift from the current pilot projects to a

widespread use of electric vehicles. In fact, the positioning of public recharging

stations is also going to play a central role in orienting the choices of consumers in

the direction of electric vehicles.

The environmental and local/regional context in which demand and supply are able

and will have to come together is crucial from many points of view.

First of all, while the capacity of electric vehicles to eliminate from densely inhabited

areas one of the principle sources of atmospheric pollution is a definite plus, at the

same time the possibility of limiting the contribution of private transport to the

greenhouse effect will depend very much on the strategic decisions that are taken in

the electricity sector from this moment on. So far as the overall emissions of carbon

dioxide are concerned, given a certain combination of hypotheses that it is

reasonable to make in relation to the national context, the emissions indirectly

produced by electric vehicles would be almost half those of vehicles equipped only

with an internal combustion engine (ICE).

Compared with non-plug-in hybrid electric

vehicles (HEVs) on the other hand, vehicles

that can be recharged from the electricity

network would offer the opportunity to

reduce polluting emissions from cities

without – barring extreme scenarios involving

a very high concentration of carbon –

increasing CO2 emissions (even though, by

the same token, they would not succeed in

decreasing them to any significant extent).

Turning our attention now to energy


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efficiency, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) show themselves to be the most

competitive solution in a range of driving autonomy between 100 and 200

kilometres, whereas for longer distances the most promising solution is offered by

hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

So far as the interface of electric vehicles with the electricity system is concerned,

the problems and the opportunities inhere to a range of factors relating to the

generation, distribution and automation of the network.

From the studies that have been carried out it has emerged that the electricity

generation system is already capable of meeting the greater demand for electric

energy necessary to render practicable the use of electric vehicles. In fact, analysing

the sales forecasts in relation to electric vehicles and comparing them with the

projections of growth in relation to electricity production from renewable sources, it

has been established that the greater demand for energy consequent upon the

spread of electric mobility can be entirely satisfied by renewable energy sources.

The major problems to confront relate instead to the distribution system in that at

the present time it is not sufficiently extensive to cope with the recharging of the

substantial number of electric vehicles that will be connected up to it in the near

future. Indeed, if measures are not taken to incentivate recharging in periods of low

consumption (for example at night), there will be a distinct risk of overloading the

network at times of major withdrawal. One alternative solution is to apply both to

the distribution networks and to the intelligent charging columns automation and

remote-control systems that provide for a rational use of energy in accordance with

the quantity of power available. In this regard many studies have already been

carried out at both the national and international level and they define in a precise

manner the various functions that these automation systems will have to perform.

Still to be resolved, however, is the question of the definition of common standards

for communication between the various devices.

As well as connection problems, however, electric vehicles are capable of bringing

with them a series of benefits for the electricity network. In fact, onboard batteries

constitute a reserve of energy that can be used to make up for dips or small

interruptions in voltage supply as well as to counter any disturbances provoked by

the variability of renewable energy sources.

Finally, the social acceptance of electric mobility – in the various local contexts and

on the various regional/national/international scales in which it manifests itself – will

depend on the impacts that it is seen to have on the various areas of economic and

social life that it invests.

In the first place, the growth in the role of renewable energies, which will find one of

its major outlets in the field of electric mobility, will have immense implications for

the economy as a whole. So far as employment is concerned, the sectors that will be

most involved are the bioenergy industry, the wind energy industry and the solar,

photovoltaic and concentrating photovoltaic technology industry. So far as electric


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vehicles themselves are concerned, the entire sector will enter into play. Producers

of batteries will have to knock down production and sales costs while producers of

engines and vehicle mechanics will have to substitute old skills with new skills. All of

which means a major process of employment reconversion: the loss of old jobs and

the birth of new ones.

From the point of view of the electricity network, with the development of smart

grids it is expected that it will be necessary to redesign the roles of the players

responsible for supplying energy and managing the network in the light of the likely

emergence of a more and more widespread and increasingly complex auto-

production of electricity.

The role of policies in support of the development of the market and recharging

infrastructures will be crucial and it will result in significant geographical and socio-

economic differentiations in the spread of electric vehicles.

Finally, a very important role will be played by research and development in the

pursuit of the path towards independence from energy-producing resources that are

not completely renewable.

As far as the organisational and urban/regional implications of electric mobility are

concerned, the first factor to take into consideration is the specific characteristics of

the demand for private mobility satisfied by electric vehicles. If it is true that the bulk

of the demand is represented by a form of electric mobility that relies on domestic

recharging, then the more the traffic in question is concentrated in a limited number

of densely populated urban areas, the easier it will be to concentrate public

recharging facilities around a limited number of hubs and thereby minimise the costs

involved.

Similarly, the mix between slow and fast charging options and the possibility of

further developing vehicles that provide for switching between batteries will also

contribute to determine the design of the network, adding elements of even greater

complexity.

In these conclusions to the First Report on Sustainable Mobility we have sought to

offer a comprehensive overview of both the current state of the art of electric

mobility and its prospects for development in the future. In general, we have argued

that the future for electric vehicles is bright but at the same time we have not

neglected to point out a range of problems.

In order for this positive future to actually come about, however, it is essential that a

series of co-ordinated actions be taken. These include the following: reducing the

cost of the vehicles, developing co-ordinated incentivation measures, providing

support for recharging infrastructure, integrating the system of sustainable transport

and the system for the production of renewable energies and re-examining the

legislation relating to CO2 emissions. A further important requirement – this being

very keenly felt at the level of the EU – is to define a common framework of


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governance capable of co-ordinating national-level initiatives and rendering them

systematic within the context of a common, EU-wide strategy that guarantees the

maintenance of competitive technological advantages currently threatened by the

risk of fragmentation in the internal market. In this regard it is worth noting how the

strategy laid out at the EU level does not in fact limit itself to considering electric

vehicles alone but also extends to vehicles powered by other innovative types of fuel

capable of contributing to common environmental objectives (biofuels, gaseous fuels

etc.). This latter point provides a pointer to the kind of integrated, strategic approach

that has been adopted as well as to the relative complexity of the models of mobility

that can be derived from it.

So far as the creation and consolidation of the

electric mobility market is concerned, the most

evident problem at the present time is the high

cost of the electric vehicles themselves. In fact,

largely because of the high cost of the battery,

an electric car in Europe in particular costs twice

as much as the equivalent car with an internal

combustion engine. Because of this, the

technological challenge universally recognised

today as the most important remains the

development of robust and reliable, high-power

and high-energy batteries that cost at least 50%

less than the currently available batteries (an

objective that in point of fact can quite easily be

achieved simply by exploiting economies of

scale). The other requirements considered fundamental for the spread of electric

mobility are 1) the development of public recharging infrastructure, which makes

available recharging points that are easily accessible and standardised (not least in

terms of being easy to locate) and 2) the realisation of experimental and pilot

projects involving fleets of vehicles so as to generate awareness, experience and

confidence on the part of consumers in the daily use of electric vehicles.

Finally, our analysis of some of the major European pilot projects, carried out

particularly in relation to the development of recharging infrastructure and the

incentivation that is being provided for, has highlighted the lack of co-ordinated

guidelines both at the level of individual states and at the supranational level.

Especially noticeable is the heterogeneity of the models of electric mobility that have

been introduced. These vary in terms of the infrastructures envisaged, the business

models proposed – at the moment purely theoretical in nature due to the fact that

access to public structures for the provision of electricity is currently free of charge –

the objectives aimed at, i.e. in terms of the extent of the spread of electric vehicles,


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and the geographic localisation of the phenomenon be it on a national or urban

level.

Certainly one could not claim that the contents of this first EnergyLab report on

electric mobility are exhaustive, whether it be in terms of the breadth of the enquiry

(it could, for example, easily be extended to other forms of sustainable mobility) or

in terms of the completeness of the coverage of the various relevant policy initiatives

and/or pilot projects. Another thing that was only partially dealt with – and one that

will definitely need to be covered more thoroughly in the future - are the

relationships of interdependence between the various components that make up the

field. In fact, even though the work was conducted in a highly interdisciplinary

manner, it will be necessary to examine a certain number of relationships much

more closely in subsequent editions of the report. Nevertheless, in spite of these

drawbacks the results of this first attempt remain very valuable, if only for the fact

that they involve an attempt2 to simultaneously take into consideration all the

problems in question. This first report is the fruit of a long series of meetings

between researchers and operators in the electric mobility field (many coming from

other countries) and as such it contains a rich store of information. However much it

might be improved, it indisputably constitutes a first important step towards

promoting a more sustainable mobility both in our cities and across the nation as a

whole.

2 The report photographs the situation as of 31st March 2011. The technological, design and

experimental evolution in the field of electric mobility is so fast that we were constrained to select a

particular date as a limit for our enquiry, entrusting to subsequent reports any treatment of the

inevitable developments after that date.


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Executive Summary - Sustainable Mobility

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