E U w o o dReal potential for changes ingrowth and use of EU forests

4 UNECE/FAO - linkages

Source: UNECE wood availability task force

10 OctBioenergy Policies and ForestsUNECE/FAO Policy Forum

proposed2008 -2009

Incorporating wood supply and demand into sectoroutlook study

Study / ProcessVI

proposed2008 -2010

Empirical study on national level in severalEuropean countries to gather new and improveexisting data on energy use of wood and sourcesof wood

StudyV

done

ongoing

Nov 07-Mar 08Apr 08

Review of the data and information presented in the study (phase III) by national correspondentsWorkshop in spring (March/April) 2008

Review / workshopIV

done

Mar - Oct2007

Wood resources availability and demands:Overview based on existing data

Study

III

doneJanuary2007Mobilising wood resources (Workshop in Geneva)WorkshopII

done2005 -2007

The Joint Wood Energy Enquiry (JWEE):Improving data on wood energy:

EnquiryI

StatusDateDescription / TitleType of activityPhase

10 OctBioenergy Policies and ForestsUNECE/FAO Policy Forum

proposed2008 -2009

Study / ProcessVI

proposed2008 -2010

StudyV

doneNov 07-Mar 08Apr 08

Review of the data and information presented in the study (phase III) by national correspondentsWorkshop in spring (March/April) 2008

Review / workshopIV

done

Mar - Oct2007

Wood resources availability and demands:Overview based on existing data

Study

III

doneJanuary2007WorkshopII

done2005 -2007EnquiryI

StatusDateDescription / TitleType of activityPhase

1 Project idea and target

2 Partner

3 Workpacks

4 UNECE/FAO linkages

EUwood Content

EUwood – project idea / target

EU-targets:

Increase the use of renewable energy.

Climate change mitigation

Project target:

Analyse best available data to estimate real potentials

for changes (normally increases) in the use of forests and wood for:

energy (household, municipal, industrial, etc.),

wood processing (including bio-chemicals and bio-materials),

non-wood use (including biodiversity and recreation).

1

EUwood – project idea / target1

This analysis will include both qualitative and quantitative aspects

In a quantitative analysis the study will

based on available data, improve its reliability by combining andco-checking it within the structure of the wood resource balance.

examine or estimate the direct supply from forest and woodybiomass outside forest.

examine scenarios for an outlook until 2030.

EUwood – project idea / target1

This analysis will include both qualitative and quantitative aspects

In a qualitative analysis the study will

provide recommendations for balancing material and energy use,

increase woody biomass potentials, propose means toovercome barriers of mobilization and

outline proposals on how to integrate social and environmental constraints.

EUwood – project partner2

University of Hamburg, Center of Wood ScienceCo–ordinator

UNECE/FAO Timber committee

EFI – European Forest Institute

METLA - Finnish Forest Research Institute

probos, the Dutch Institute for Forestry and Forest Products

Euwood - workpacks3

3

Workpacks

WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply

WP2 Methodology and empirical data

WP3 Demand of woody biomass 2008-2030

WP4 Potential biomass supply from forests 2008-2030

WP5 Other woody biomass supply 2008 - 2030

WP6 Scenario description and gap projection

WP7 Recommendations

WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supplywood resource balance 20073

source use[mio. m³] % % [mio. m³]

Industrial Roundwood - JFSQ 377 49% 26% 214 Sawmill industry

Industrial Roundwood - unrep. 26 3% 11% 89 Panel industry

Fuelwood - JFSQ 56 7% 19% 155 Pulp industry

Fuelwood - Maximum unrep. 29 4% 2% 14 Other physical utilization

Bark 12 2% 1% 6 Wood fuel industry

Used logging residues 17 2% 6% 49 Power and heat

Woody biomass outside forest 13 2% 7% 61 Industrial internal

Chips, particles & residues 122 16% 12% 96 Private households

Pulp production co-products 72 9% 17% 138 Undifferentiated energy use

Recovered wood 42 5%

Processed wood fuel 6 1%

∑ source total: 774.627 ▲ 46.661 821.288 ∑ use total

Source: Mantau / Steierer / Hetsch /Prins (2008) : Wood resources availability and demands 2005 – Part I UNECE/FAO Geneva, 2008

[2005]

WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supplybiomass potential and its segments3

Forest biomass incrementfellingsindustrial roundwoodfuelwoodharvesting residues

Biomass from other sourcespost consumer recovered woodindustrial co-products and residuesblack liquorwood outside forestsplantations etc.

WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supplybarriers and constraints3

Project title Partner

AQUATERRE – Integrated European Network for biomass and waste reutilisation for Bio-products EFIEFORWOOD - (6FP IP) (518128-2) EFISENSOR - (003874 (GOCE)) EFI

ALTENER-2002-031 bioXchange-project UHAMprobos

RM Resource monitoring (since 1999) UHAMWRB Wood Resource Balance (2002, 2005, 2007) UHAMEFSOS – European Forest Sector Outlook study UNECEJWEE – UNECE/FAO/IEA/EC Joint Wood Energy Enquiry UNECE

UNECE task force on wood availability UHAMUNECE

UNECE task force on conversion factors UNECEIEA Task 31 Bioenergy from sustainable forestry METLA

BEE – Biomass Energy _Europe (7FP) METLAEFI

5EURES - Five European RES-Heat Pilots METLANorthern Woodheat METLAGLOENER - Global forest energy resources, certific.of supply and markets for energy technology METLAEUENER – EU forest fuel resources, energy technology market and international bioenergy trade METLA

WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supplylinkages to other EU-projects3

Theoretical potential of modern fuel wood in EU27

Source: Asikainen et al. 2008

3 WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supplypolicy review

Climate change policies:

Climate change mitigation - CO2 sink or source?Storage in forest and forest productsSubstitute for CO2 intensive materialsAdaptation of forest to climate change

Renewable energy policies

20% Renewable Energy Consumption by 2020Biomass action plans of EU member statesFuture energy security Future development of energy prices

Industrial development and employment policies

Trade policies

e.g. Russian export tariffs on round wood exportsRecent developments in global economy

3 WP2 Description of methodologyWood resource balance

Energy plants > 1MW0.840 1.2%

Energy plants < 1MW3.463 4.9%

households14.214 20.3%

Officially registered cuttings (ORC)56.946 77.8%

Domestic yield (DY)73.204 100.0%

Cuttings not registered (CNR)16.258 22.2%

Change in stock (CiS)-0.036 0.0%

Import (Im)2.820 3.9%

Export (Ex)6.070 8.3%

Domestic availability (DA)69.990 100.0%

Pulp industry6.184 8.8%

Panel industry7.470 10.7%

Sawmill industry37.234 53.2%

Other material use *)0.585 0.8%

Other energy use0.000 0.0%

DY = DA – Im + Ex + ΔCiS CNR = DY - ORC

Source: Mantau / Development of methods to generate market information and linkages between biomass supply and demand. ALTERNA-Report 2005

Example: Total harvested volume in 2005

3 WP2 Description of methodologyForest Resources - EFISCEN

Source: EFI - Forest Information SCENario model EFISCEN

Age-class

Vol

ume-

clas

sWood demand

Management strategy

Forest area change

3 WP2 Description of methodologyOther biomass

Monitoring woody biomass sources and uses on a constant basis is costly

Therefore calculation based on empirical studies factors and coefficients

National used wood potentials could be calculated per capita, by business cycles or the proportion of sawmill by products based on information about size structure of national sawmill industries

= 80 kg per capitaused wood?

= 38,5 % sawnwoodby–products?

Consequently a calculation model on European level shall be achieved

Such a model will be helpful to fill gaps via technical coefficients in countries and sectors where empirical studies cannot be carried out

3 WP2 Description of methodologyOutlook study methods

Source: Prins, C. (2007), internal presentation

Calculated future wood supply

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2010 2020

mill

ion

m³

Supply residuesSupply forest

Calcualted material use (EFSOS)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2010 2020

Material use (EFSOS)

EFSOS basic method:i)A multiple equationmodel for demand (2) and supply (1) in majorproducer and consumercountries.ii)A time series cross-sectional model forconsumption in the othercountries

Source: KANGAS/BAUDIN: Modelling and Projection of ForestProducts Demand, Supply and Trade in Europe. ECE/TIM/DP/30, 2003

3 WP2 Description of methodologyDatabases

1. Different databases

Ener

gy -

IEA

CO

ST -

E31

Woo

d En

ergy

Tim

ber /

UN

ECE

Fore

stry

FA

O

EurO

bser

ver

MC

PFE

CEP

I

EPF

Ges

bois

Minimum / Maximum / Best estimate per item

Different databases

Regional wood balance3

2

1

Source: Steierer in: Mantau / Steierer / Hetsch /Prins (2008):

Wood resources 2005 – Part I UNECE/FAO Geneva, 2008

3 WP3 Theoretical potential forest biomass supply 2008-2030

Energy demand as a result of energy policy

Development of wood consumption for energy use if EU targets (RES) are realized as planed

349 M m3

591 M m3 1)

768 M m3 2)

2005

2010

2020

EU-RES-targets:1) 2010: 12%2) 2020: 20%

Source: Hetsch / Steierer / Prins (2008) : Wood resources availability and demands 2005 – Part II UNECE/FAO Geneva, 2008

3 WP4 Theoretical potential from other woody biomasssupply 2008-2030

Other woody biomass will be presented for:

Industrial rest wood I (saw mill by products)

Industrial rest wood II (other industrial residues)

Industrial rest wood III (black liquor)

recovered wood

plantations

woody biomass outside the forest (segments)

3 WP6 Scenario description and gap projection - 2008-2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

consum ption of fores t biom ass upper consum ption scenario lower consum ption scenario NAI in cutting volum e - increm ent usable volum e including res twood

Source: Szenarien des Holzaufkommens und der Holzverwendung 2008 bis 2012, Project report, Hamburg 2008, 79 p

Example:Germany

3 WP6 Scenario description and gap projection - 2008-2030

Sceanrio segmentation

3 WP6 Scenario description and gap projection - 2008-2030

Resource competition - Example Germany

in mio m³ - cummlative plot

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

material uses energy uses

Source: Szenarien des Holzaufkommens und der Holzverwendung 2008 bis 2012, Project report, Hamburg 2008, 79 p

3 WP7 Strategies and recommendations

Recommendations may be given for

forest policies

forest industry policies

climate change policies

renewable energy policies

for trade policies

and others

4 UNECE/FAO - linkages

Source: UNECE wood availability task force

JFSQ Joint Forest Sector questionnaire

EFSOS European Forest Sector Outlook study

JWEE UNECE/FAO/IEA/EC Joint Wood Energy Enquiry

UNECE task force on wood availability

UNECE task force on conversion factors

E U w o o dReal potential for changes ingrowth and use of EU forests