ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio Report
description
Transcript of ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio Report
ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio ReportJuly 17, 2014
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Contents
I. Supply Portfolio Results Page #
A. Key Performance Measures 4
B. Electric Supply Cost Chart – FY14 5
C. Electric Supply Cost Summary – FY14 6
II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
A. Hedge Position Chart 8
B. Block Purchase Plan 9
C. Proforma Hedge Position Chart 10
D. Forward Market Price Reports 11-12
E. Hourly Market Price Reports 13-15
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
A. Portfolio Cost and Billing Rate History 17
B. Electric Supply Portfolio vs. DPL SOS Rate Summary 18
C. Working Capital – Billing Rate Comparison 19
D. FY14 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule 20
E. FY15 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule 21
Appendix 23-29
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I. Supply Portfolio Results
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioKey Portfolio MeasuresJune 2014
1. Total Supply Cost ($/MWh)
Actual O/(U) Budget Actual O/(U) Budget % O/(U) Budget
Unit Cost, $/MWh $77.65 ($2.55) $97.45 $14.44 17.4%
Cost @ Volume** $992,305 ($32,560) $15,193,186 $2,251,762 17.4%
* Subject to PJM 60 day settlement
** Represents unit cost variance to budget, does not reflect volumetric valariance to budget
2. Replacement Value - Blocks - Current Market O/(U) Hedge Costs ($MM)
FY 2015 $0.11
FY 2016 (0.06)
FY 2017 0.11
Total $0.16
3. Hedge Summary
Peak Off Total Peak Off Total
FY 2015 80% 75% 78% 85% 67% 77%
FY 2016 60% 56% 58% 64% 67% 65%
FY 2017 20% 19% 19% 21% 33% 26%
4. Actual/ Forecasted Supply Cost ($ Mwh)
Total
Supply Cost $/MWh %
FY 2014 $98.00 $16.96 20.9%
FY 2015 $76.00 ($22.00) -22.4%
FY 2016 $80.00 $4.00 5.3%
YR to YR Incr/(decr)
June 2014* FY 2014 - June YTD *
Minimum Guideline Actual
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$60
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$60
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$/MWh
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Cost FY 2014
Monthly Actual Prior Year YTD Actual Portfolio Budget Billed Rate
Jan 2014 =$165.97
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Total Supply Cost, Cumulative FY 2014ESMECUpdated: 7/16/2014
Final Final Final Final Final Prelim PrelimDec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Cumulative
PJM Load Charges - WGESEEst. Meter Volume, MWh 12,957 15,026 13,116 13,761 11,725 12,037 12,779 155,908
Energy - DA & RT $125,866 $1,281,377 $386,760 $358,071 $81,221 $44,489 $132,516 $3,075,909Ancillary Charges 88,887 282,428 24,477 14,765 58,123 53,355 27,832 978,814Transmission 54,964 50,562 45,939 50,914 49,457 50,707 61,138 635,194Capacity 237,776 238,594 215,257 241,411 233,693 239,946 130,255 2,720,671ARR/FTR & Marginal Loss (13,722) (35,737) (18,617) (19,414) (11,104) (11,691) (14,610) (193,020)Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PJM Electric Cost 493,772 1,817,224 653,817 645,748 411,390 376,805 337,131 7,217,568
60 Day Reconciliation (Included in Energy & Ancillary Above) (8,809) 26,952 52,780 (12,773) (4,469) (20,531)
Bilateral Electric Cost 610,100 619,499 560,760 609,546 606,185 610,100 596,786 7,256,202
Other ChargesWGES Service Fee 16,269 18,094 15,317 16,763 14,532 14,648 15,551 193,004WGES Cost to Carry 0 0 7,568 12,132 10,958 11,409 9,798 51,865WGES Cost of Collateral 10,166 5,929 8,064 8,064 5,212 2,390 2,390 94,906WGES Fee for PES Block Delivery 2,530 2,530 2,285 2,526 2,448 2,530 2,448 29,784Renew able (RPS Requirement) 55,242 26,068 26,068 26,068 26,068 26,068 26,068 317,201Other Fees (MD PSC) 2,559 5,362 2,744 2,845 2,319 2,249 2,133 32,656 Subtotal 86,767 57,983 62,045 68,397 61,537 59,294 58,388 719,416
Total Supply Cost $1,190,639 $2,494,705 $1,276,621 $1,323,691 $1,079,113 $1,046,199 $992,305 $15,193,186
Unit Costs, $/MWh Energy $56.80 $126.50 $72.24 $70.31 $58.63 $54.38 $57.07 $66.27 Transmission $4.24 $3.36 $3.50 $3.70 $4.22 $4.21 $4.78 $4.07 Capacity 18.35 15.88 16.41 17.54 19.93 19.93 10.19 17.45 Ancillary Charges & Credit 5.80 16.42 0.45 (0.34) 4.01 3.46 1.03 5.04 Renew able (RPS Requirement) 4.26 1.73 1.99 1.89 2.22 2.17 2.04 2.03 Other 2.43 2.12 2.74 3.08 3.03 2.76 2.53 2.58 Total Supply Cost $91.89 $166.02 $97.33 $96.19 $92.03 $86.91 $77.65 $97.45
Expected Unit Price $73.73 $84.86 $81.17 $79.24 $86.10 $83.25 $80.20 $83.01 Budget Variance $18.16 $81.16 $16.16 $16.95 $5.93 $3.66 ($2.55) $14.44
Hedge Settlement $117,464 ($1,246,219) ($289,131) ($314,890) $111,142 $114,467 $85,145 ($724,775) Unit Cost, $/MWh $2.82 ($29.93) ($6.94) ($7.55) $2.66 $2.74 $2.04 ($4.65)
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II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
MWhESMEC- ET -Current Electric Hedge Status, 7/14/2014
Total Load Max Hedge Purchased Min Hedge
Based on FY2014 Gross Annual MWhs of 166,000
Peak Off TotalFY 2015 85% 67% 77%FY 2016 64% 67% 65%FY 2017 21% 33% 26%
Actual Hedge %'s
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ESMEC-ET Scheduled Block PurchasesAs of 7/16/2014
Block SizeTerm MW Type Delivery Purchase By 7/14/14
Jul 15 - Jun 17 5 Peak DPL 11/30/14 $48.03
FY 2015 - Winter* SuggestedRecommended
Additional %Month On Peak Off Peak Hedge On Peak Off Peak 7/14/14 12/3/13 Increase
Jan-15 80% 55% 3 MW ATC 92% 71% $58.35 $40.66 44%Feb-15 82% 58% 3 MW ATC 94% 76% $52.82 $38.53 37%
*Timing of FY15 additional winter hedges will be driven by market prices during Summer-Fall of 2014
Current Hedge Pro forma Hedge WH NYMEX Close as of:
WH NYMEX Close as of:
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MWh
ESMEC-ET Proforma Electric Hedge Status, 12/31/2014
Total Load Max Hedge Purchased Scheduled Min Hedge
Based on FY 2014 Gross Annual MWhs of 166,000
Peak Off TotalFY 2015 87% 70% 80%FY 2016 85% 67% 77%FY 2017 42% 33% 39%
Pro Forma Hedge %'s
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$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
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$110
$120
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ATC Average LMP-RT PJM Western Hub, 1998 - 6/2014
Avg-Monthly Avg-12 Mo
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50%
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150%
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250%
300%
Peak Premium Ratio- DPL, 2001 - 6/30/2014
Avg Monthly Avg-12 Mo
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$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM DPL Zone Basis, 1999 - 6/30/2014
Avg Monthly Avg-12 Mo
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III. Portfolio Billing Rates
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioBudget, Actual and Billing Rates($ kWh)
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Portfolio budget rate $0.0912 $0.0900 $0.1000 $0.1000 $0.0950 $0.0840 $0.0870 $0.0830 $0.0760 (Revised)
Portfolio actual/forecast cost$0.0876 $0.0993 $0.0976 $0.0919 $0.0940 $0.0810 $0.0810 $0.0980 (Revised) Actual o/(u) budget ($0.0036) $0.0093 ($0.0024) ($0.0081) ($0.0010) ($0.0030) ($0.0060) $0.0150
Approximate Weighted Average Billing Rates (1):
Billing months: Jul - Oct $0.0992 $0.0992 $0.1094 $0.1094 $0.0954 $0.0944 $0.0954 $0.0894 $0.1004 Nov - Feb $0.0844 $0.0844 $0.0944 $0.0944 $0.0804 $0.0794 $0.0794 $0.0774 $0.0854 Mar - Jun $0.0814 $0.0844 $0.0944 $0.0944 $0.0804 $0.0794 $0.0794 $0.0849 $0.0854
W/A billing rate $0.0885 $0.0894 $0.0995 $0.0995 $0.0855 $0.0845 $0.0849 $0.0839 $0.0906
(1) Includes primary (GSP), secondary (LGS, SGS) and outdoor lighting (OL/ORL) rate schedules
Preliminary and forecast rates in blue
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$0.07000
$0.07500
$0.08000
$0.08500
$0.09000
$0.09500
$0.10000
$0.10500
$0.11000
$0.11500
$0.12000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Portfolio Cost Weighted Average Billing Rate DPL Standard Offer Service Rate
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Rates ($/Kwh)$/kwh
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Rates ($/Kwh)$/kwh
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$0.050
$0.060
$0.070
$0.080
$0.090
$0.100
$0.110
$0.120
($1,500,000)
($1,000,000)
($500,000)
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
W/C Avg Balance Actual Cost ($/KWh) Billing Rate($/KWh)
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioAverage Working Capital (W/C) Balances Held with Supplier $/KWh
Jan '14 $.166 KWh
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ KWh)Fiscal Year 2014
Billing Period Summer Winter Spring
Status Approved Approved Approved
Supplier Billing Months July 2013 - Nov 2013 - Apr 2014 - Oct 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning: Jun 2013 Oct 2013 Apr 2014Meter Read Ending: Oct 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014
FY 2014W/A Billing
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule Rate
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS) $0.0900 $0.0780 $0.0855 $0.0845
Primary (GSP) $0.0875 $0.0755 $0.0830 $0.0821
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL) $0.0750 $0.0630 $0.0705 $0.0696
Weighted Average Rate $0.0894 $0.0774 $0.0849 $0.0839
Estimated Portfolio Cost
Portfolio Forecast Rate as 3/2014 $0.1000
Original Portfolio Budget Rate $0.0830
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio 7/15/14Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ KWh)Fiscal Year 2015
Billing Period Summer Winter Spring
Status Approved Preliminary Preliminary
Supplier Billing Months July 2014 - Nov 2014 - Mar 2014 - Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning: Jun 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015Meter Read Ending: Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Jun 2015
FY 2015W/A Billing
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule Rate
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS) $0.1010 $0.0860 $0.0860 $0.0911
Primary (GSP) $0.0985 $0.0835 $0.0835 $0.0888
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL) $0.0860 $0.0710 $0.0710 $0.0761
Weighted Average Rate $0.1004 $0.0854 $0.0854 $0.0906
Estimated Portfolio Cost
Original Portfolio Budget Rate $0.0730
Revised Portfolio Budget Rate $0.0760
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Appendix
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
kW
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
Hourly Load 30 Day Average
RLR, 7/13 - 6/14 (through 4/14)
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
kW
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
Hourly Load 30 Day Average
RLR, 7/12 - 6/13 (through 6/13)
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ESMEC-ET - Open Block Purchase Transaction LogAs of: 7/16/14
Purchase Delivery Index Size Price # Date Start Stop Type Point Settle (MW) ($MWh)
9 11/14/11 Jul-13 Jun-15 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $53.9512 9/19/12 Jul-14 Jun-15 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $41.9014 4/10/13 Jul-15 Jun-16 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $45.5515 7/2/13 Jul-14 Jun-15 Peak DPL DA 5.00 $50.0016 11/5/13 Jul-14 Jun-16 Peak DPL DA 5.00 $46.8017 11/20/13 Jul-16 Jun-17 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $40.2518 4/29/14 Jul-15 Jun-16 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $48.80
LegendATC = Around the ClockWH = West HubDA = Day AheadRT = Real Time
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($150,000)
($100,000)
($50,000)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Monthly Cumulative
ESMEC Electric Mark to Market, 7/16/2014
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioCapacity and Transmission Tag Summary (MW)
Incr/(Decr) in Incr/(Decr) in
13/14 Year 14/15 Year
Cost ($) Cost ($)
12/13 13/14 14/15 MW % MW %
Unforced Capacity Obligation 33.8 31.3 30.1 (2.5) -7.4% (1.2) -3.8% ($226,573) ($63,676)
Incr/(Decr) in Incr/(Decr) inCal Year Cal Year
2013 Cost ($) 2014 Cost ($)
2012 2013 2014 MW % MW %
Transmission Capacity 30.0 26.7 24.3 (3.3) -11.0% (2.4) -9.0% ($74,246) ($67,048)
(1) PJM Year June 1 - May 31
2014 o/(u) 20132013 o/(u) 2012Calendar Year
13/14 o/(u) 12/13PJM Year (1) 14/15 o/(u) 13/14
Impact of Inc/(decr) in UCAP MW
Impact of Inc/(decr) in Trans Cap MW
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$15.00
$197.16
$150.53
$196.54 $187.37
$116.15
$171.24
$248.30
$145.38
$166.08
$118.89 $119.92
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
06/07 -Pre
RPM
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
$/MWDPJM - DPL Capacity Prices
Final Zonal Net Load Prices through 14/15, PJM Base Residual Clearing Prices thereafter
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ESMEC-ETMaryland Renewable Portfolio Requirements Based on Chapters 583, 556 and 653 enacted May 22, 2012 Required %'s Based on Grandfathered %'s per SB791 Estimates in BlueReport as of: 7/11/14
Required %
Amount
Total REC Quantity
Requirement
REC Quantity
Purchased to Date
% Requirement Purchased
to Date
Purchase Cost
($/MWh)
($) Purchased
Cost to Date
Actual or Estimated
Annual Cost
$/MWh Cost per Portfolio Usage
Required % Amount
Total REC Quantity
Requirement
REC Quantity
Purchased to Date
% Requirement Purchased to
Date
Purchase Cost
($/MWh)
($) Purchased
Cost to Date
Actual or Estimated
Annual Cost
$/MWh Cost per Portfolio Usage
2012 173,040 6.40% 11,075 11,075 100% 4.15$ 45,959$ 45,959$ 0.27$ 0.1000% 173 173 100% 170.00$ 29,417$ 29,417$ 0.17$ 2013 171,402 8.00% 13,712 13,712 100% 15.67$ 214,870$ 214,870$ 1.25$ 0.2000% 343 343 100% 170.00$ 58,277$ 58,277$ 0.34$ 2014 171,402 10.00% 17,140 2,449 14% $15.85 38,817$ 271,672$ 1.59$ 0.3000% 514 - 0% -$ -$ 87,415$ 0.51$ 2015 171,402 10.10% 17,312 -$ -$ 0.4000% 686 -$ 2016 171,402 12.20% 20,911 -$ -$ 0.5000% 857 -$ 2017 171,402 12.55% 21,511 -$ -$ 0.5500% 943 -$ 2018 171,402 14.90% 25,539 -$ -$ 0.9000% 1,543 -$ 2019 171,402 16.20% 27,767 -$ -$ 1.2000% 2,057 -$ 2020 171,402 16.50% 28,281 -$ -$ 1.5000% 2,571 -$ 2021 171,402 16.85% 28,881 -$ -$ 1.8500% 3,171 -$ 2022 171,402 18.00% 30,852 -$ -$ 2.0000% 3,428 -$ 2023 171,402 18.00% 30,852 -$ -$ 2.0000% 3,428 -$
Required %
Amount
Total REC Quantity
Requirement
REC Quantity
Purchased to Date
% Requirement Purchased
to Date
Purchase Cost
($/MWh)
($) Purchased
Cost to Date
Actual or Estimated
Annual Cost
$/MWh Cost per Portfolio Usage
Total Cost ($)
$/MWh Cost per Portfolio Usage
2012 173,040 2.5% 4,326 4,326 100% 0.69$ 2,985$ 2,985$ 0.02$ 78,361$ 0.45$ 2013 171,402 2.5% 4,285 4,285 100% 3.35$ 14,355$ 14,355$ 0.08$ 287,501$ 1.68$ 2014 171,402 2.5% 4,285 612 14% 8.00$ 4,896$ 34,280$ 0.20$ 393,368$ 2.30$ 2015 171,402 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ -$ 2016 171,402 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ -$ 2017 171,402 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ -$ 2018 171,402 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ -$ 2019 171,402 0.0% -$ -$ 2020 171,402 0.0% -$ -$ 2021 171,402 0.0% -$ -$ 2022 171,402 0.0% -$ -$ 2023 171,402 0.0% -$ -$
Calendar Year
Compliance
Portfolio Usage (MWh)
Tier I Solar - SREC
Calendar Year
Compliance
Portfolio Usage (MWh)
Tier II All Tiers