ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are...

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Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability in the 21 st and 22 nd Century: ENSO & NAO

Transcript of ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are...

Page 1: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability in the21st and 22nd Century: ENSO & NAO

Page 2: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

ElNiño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)ENSO&NAOSummary&Discussion

Page 3: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Modell & Data:ECHAM5/MPIOM (IPCC runs)

20th century simulations 1900-2000 (20C)A1B scenarios 2001-2100 (21C)A1B scenario stabilisation runs 2101-2200 (22C)--> 3 realisations each

ObservationsRe-Analysis (ERA40, NCEP)

Page 4: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Coupling Atmosphere and Ocean

ElNinoSea SurfaceTemperature

Southern OscillationSea Level Pressure

Page 5: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

1982 19901986 1994 1998 2002 2006

Nino3.4 IndexSSTa[x=150W:90W, y=5S:5N]

Frequency 2-7yEl Nino period typically last 1y, max. Winter

Page 6: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Nino3.4 IndexSSTa[x=150W:90W, y=5S:5N]

1982 19901986 1994 1998 2002 2006

Frequency 2-7yEl Nino period typically last 1y, max. WinterLa Nina period >= 1y

Page 7: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Impact I: DroughtAnnually Averaged 06.1998 – 05.2002

[mm/y][ºC]

-1 1 200 200

Hoerling and Kumar 2003

Page 8: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Impact II: HurricaneStorm Tracks

(From IRI)

Page 9: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Impact II: HurricaneStorm Tracks

Others Fields of Impact:Human HealthWater RecourcesNatural HazardsEnergyEcosystemswww.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/societal

(From IRI)

Page 10: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Winter (DJF) Nino3.4 index(IPCC runs)

Relative to control simulationMean shift towards higher valuesIncrease in variability (detrendedNino3.4 index)

σ20C=1.62σ21C=1.81σ22C=1.91

Red: ERA40Black/Grey : ECHAM5/MPIOM

20C

21C

22C

Page 11: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

22C

20C

ENSO Impact on Surface Temperature (IPCCruns):

Composites: ENSO+ – ENSO– whereENSO+ (ENSO–) defined as Nino3.4 Index > 1sd (<–1sd)

Fields (Index) relative to the period considered

Fields (Index) detrended prior analysis

5

-5

5

-5

Page 12: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Positive Phase:Strong Gradient of High & Low Pressure in the North AtlanticEnhanced Storm Activity along„northern“ routeAssociated wet (dry) conditionsand more (less) precipitation in Northern (Southern) Europe

Lahmont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Page 13: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Negative Phase:Weak Gradient of High & Low Pressure in the North AtlanticEnhanced Storm Activity along„southern“ routeAssociated wet (dry) conditionsand more (less) precipitation in Southern (Northern) Europe

Lahmont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Page 14: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Winter NAO Index

-2

-1

1

2

0

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Page 15: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Averaged WinterTemperature overNorthern Europe (50ºN-70ºN ;0ºE-60ºE)

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

-4

-2

2

4

0[°C

]

NAO Impact:Near Surface Temperature

2

1

0

-1

-2

1960 1980 2000

Page 16: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Appenzeller et al. 2001

-2

-1

1

2

0

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Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Appenzeller et al. 2001

Other fields of impact:

Ecosystems (Marine,Terrestrial,Freshwater)

Energy...

J. W. Hurrell et al. „The North Atlantic Oscillation:Climatic Significance andEnvironmental Impact“

Page 18: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Winter NAO index(IPCC runs)

Regressed onto 1. EOF of controlsimulationSlight mean shift towards higherValues

ō22C=0.31Small increase in variability(detrended)

σ20C=1.00σ21C=1.08σ22C=1.13

Red: ERA40Black/Grey : ECHAM5/MPIOM

20C

21C

22C

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Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Averaged Northern Europe Winter Temperature(IPCC runs)

20C 21C 22C

NAO Index > 1sdNAO Index < –1sd

[ºC] [ºC] [ºC]

Page 20: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Composites of Geopotential 500hPaElNino – Climatology (IPCC runs)

20C 21C 22C

Contour Levels 10 gpm

Page 21: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Composites of Geopotential 500hPaLaNina – Climatology (IPCC runs)

20C 21C 22C

Contour Levels 10 gpm

Page 22: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Winter NAO index(IPCC runs)

20C-0.13<r<-0.01

21C-0.30<r<-0.26

22C-0.46<r<-0.37

Nino3.4 Index > 1sdNino3.4 Index < –1sd

Mueller and Roeckner 2005

Page 23: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Variability of today‘s ENSO and NAO have a relatively large impact on local climate (even in remote regions)

Mean State and Variability of future ENSO is increased, but relatively modest for the NAO (as suggested by theECHAM5/MPIOM IPCC scenarios)

Variability of existing patterns of impact with respect to ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the21st/22nd century

ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd

century

Page 24: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

A more precise formulation of the results requires to include several sources of uncertaintiesModel formulation (i.e. multi-model approach)Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Forcing (B1 ...)-> EU-Project ENSEMBLESDecadal Climate Variability

Given a high forecast skill of ENSO several seasons aheadand assuming a stronger relationship between ENSO& NAO, what are the implications for long-range (seasonal)forecasting in the sphere of the NAO

Page 25: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary
Page 26: ENSO & NAO · ENSO and the NAO are likely to be increased in the 21st/22nd century ENSO and NAO are increasingly correlated in the 21st/22nd century. Overview ENSO NAO ENSO&NAO Summary

The End


CPC Monthly Climate Review December 2013 (Jin Huang) Outline: 0. January 2014 Cold air outbreak 1.Global Patterns (ENSO, PDO,MJO, AO/NAO) 2.Global and.

CPC Monthly Climate Review December 2013 (Jin Huang) Outline: 0. January 2014 Cold air outbreak 1.Global Patterns (ENSO, PDO,MJO, AO/NAO) 2.Global and.

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Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate by Elise Lancaster METEO 497A April 22, 2003.

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ENSO Current Status ENSO Forecast SON

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Nao Tech Day

ENSO Cycle

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Starpath Nao

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DEPARTMENTAL OVERVIEW - NAO

Review ENSO & PDO North Atlantic Oscillation Continuous Plankton Recorder survey NAO effects on plankton, jellyfish, cod.

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nao pergunte

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Solar activity correlation with NAO and ENSO - ISSI · Solar activity correlation with NAO and ENSO ... • Rainfall follows the warm water eastward and can ... less frequent El Nino

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Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate

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NAO Programming using .NET and Webots 01-Introduction to NAO

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