Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate
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Changes in NAO and ENSO Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate U.S. Climate by Elise Lancaster by Elise Lancaster METEO 497A METEO 497A April 22, 2003 April 22, 2003
description
Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate. by Elise Lancaster METEO 497A April 22, 2003. Outline. Introduction Methodology Results Other Research Possibilities Conclusion. Introduction “The Idea”. Find the largest 2-3 month differences in NAO and ENSO 3.4 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate
Changes in NAO and ENSO Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S.
ClimateClimate
by Elise Lancasterby Elise Lancaster
METEO 497AMETEO 497A
April 22, 2003April 22, 2003
IntroductionIntroduction MethodologyMethodology ResultsResults Other Research PossibilitiesOther Research Possibilities ConclusionConclusion
OutlineOutline
IntroductionIntroduction“The Idea”“The Idea”
Find the largest 2-3 month Find the largest 2-3 month differences in NAO and ENSO 3.4differences in NAO and ENSO 3.4
Note temperature and precipitation Note temperature and precipitation patterns of the month after the patterns of the month after the changechange
MethodologyMethodology
Analyze NAO and ENSO 3.4 monthly Analyze NAO and ENSO 3.4 monthly valuesvalues
Time Period: Nov - Apr (1950-present)Time Period: Nov - Apr (1950-present) DataData
NAO NAO ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_indeftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nhx.nh http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.html
ENSO ENSO ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/sstoi.indicesftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/sstoi.indices http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/index.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/index.html
MethodologyMethodology
Calculate 2 and 3-month changes in Calculate 2 and 3-month changes in valuesvalues ExamplesExamples
2-month: Dec – Nov, Apr – Mar2-month: Dec – Nov, Apr – Mar 3-month: Jan – Nov, Apr – Feb3-month: Jan – Nov, Apr – Feb
Determine largest Determine largest changes/differences – use the most changes/differences – use the most common monthcommon month
MethodologyMethodology
Plot composites of the next month’s Plot composites of the next month’s temperature and precipitation temperature and precipitation ((http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.htmlhttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.html))
ResultsResults
Graphs of valuesGraphs of values Composite U.S. temperature and Composite U.S. temperature and
precipitation mapsprecipitation maps Observations of the compositesObservations of the composites
NAO 2-month Difference vs. Time
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-50
Jan-52
Jan-54
Jan-56
Jan-58
Jan-60
Jan-62
Jan-64
Jan-66
Jan-68
Jan-70
Jan-72
Jan-74
Jan-76
Jan-78
Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Date (MTH-YR)
Ch
an
ge
in N
AO
Largest NAO 2-month Negative (Largest NAO 2-month Negative (––) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
December December 19781978
-2.5-2.5 -5.2-5.2
March 1962March 1962 -3.7-3.7 -4.6-4.6
March 1951March 1951 -2.5-2.5 -3.7-3.7
March 1981March 1981 -1.8-1.8 -3.3-3.3
April 1997April 1997 -2.2-2.2 -3.3-3.3
March 1970March 1970 -1.7-1.7 -3.0-3.0
March 2001March 2001 -1.8-1.8 -2.9-2.9
NAO 2-month NAO 2-month –– Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer in eastern in eastern two-thirds of U.S.two-thirds of U.S.
CoolerCooler in in NorthwestNorthwest
NAO 2-month NAO 2-month –– Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in Southeast, in Southeast, lower Midwest, lower Midwest, Rockies, and CA/ORRockies, and CA/OR
WetWet in Great Lakes in Great Lakes (especially MN/WI) (especially MN/WI) and Ohio Valleyand Ohio Valley
Largest NAO 2-month Positive (Largest NAO 2-month Positive (++) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
April 1952April 1952 1.71.7 3.93.9
April 1958April 1958 0.60.6 3.73.7
April 1962April 1962 1.21.2 4.94.9
December December 19651965
1.11.1 3.43.4
March 1986March 1986 2.32.3 3.33.3
April 1969April 1969 1.21.2 2.92.9
April 1981April 1981 0.90.9 2.72.7
April 2001April 2001 0.90.9 2.72.7
NAO 2-month NAO 2-month ++ Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer over over majority of U.S.majority of U.S.
WarmestWarmest in in western stateswestern states
CoolerCooler in Northeast in Northeast and on Gulf of and on Gulf of Mexico coastMexico coast
NAO 2-month NAO 2-month ++ Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in Northwest, in Northwest, CA, TX, OK, MO, CA, TX, OK, MO, AR, Great Lakes, AR, Great Lakes, Southeast, and Southeast, and NortheastNortheast
WetWet in central in central Midwest, Midwest, Southwest, and Southwest, and Ohio ValleyOhio Valley
NAO 3-month Difference vs. Time
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-50
Jan-52
Jan-54
Jan-56
Jan-58
Jan-60
Jan-62
Jan-64
Jan-66
Jan-68
Jan-70
Jan-72
Jan-74
Jan-76
Jan-78
Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Date (MTH-YR)
Ch
an
ge
in N
AO
Largest NAO 3-month Negative (Largest NAO 3-month Negative (––) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
March 1962March 1962 -3.7-3.7 -4.7-4.7
April 1997April 1997 -2.2-2.2 -3.8-3.8
March 1952March 1952 -2.2-2.2 -3.7-3.7
January 1979January 1979 -0.8-0.8 -3.5-3.5
March 1951March 1951 -2.5-2.5 -3.1-3.1
March 1957March 1957 -1.8-1.8 -3.0-3.0
March 2001March 2001 -1.8-1.8 -2.5-2.5
NAO 3-month NAO 3-month –– Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer in in Northeast, Northeast, Northwest, Great Northwest, Great Lakes, and RockiesLakes, and Rockies
CoolerCooler in Midwest in Midwest and Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of Mexico coastcoast
NAO 3-month NAO 3-month –– Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in Northwest, in Northwest, Southeast, upper Southeast, upper Midwest, and New Midwest, and New EnglandEngland
WetWet in Southwest, in Southwest, parts of Midwest, parts of Midwest, and PA regionand PA region
Largest NAO 3-month Positive (Largest NAO 3-month Positive (++) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
April 1964April 1964 1.71.7 3.13.1
January 1984January 1984 1.71.7 3.03.0
January 1986January 1986 1.61.6 3.03.0
February February 19961996
0.80.8 2.92.9
February February 19971997
1.61.6 2.82.8
February February 19621962
0.90.9 2.72.7
February February 20022002
1.61.6 2.62.6
February February 19881988
1.11.1 2.52.5
February February 19901990
0.70.7 2.52.5
NAO 3-month NAO 3-month ++ Changes Changes TemperatureTemperature
Warmer Warmer on east on east coast and western coast and western U.S.U.S.
CoolerCooler in Midwest in Midwest
NAO 3-month NAO 3-month ++ Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in Southwest in Southwest and Northeastand Northeast
WetWet in Ohio River in Ohio River Valley and upper Valley and upper MidwestMidwest
ENSO 3.4 Anomaly 2-month Difference vs. Time
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
Jan-50
Jan-52
Jan-54
Jan-56
Jan-58
Jan-60
Jan-62
Jan-64
Jan-66
Jan-68
Jan-70
Jan-72
Jan-74
Jan-76
Jan-78
Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Date (MTH-YR)
Ch
an
ge
in E
NS
O 3
.4 A
no
ma
ly
Largest ENSO 2-month Negative (Largest ENSO 2-month Negative (––) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
April 1973April 1973 -0.15-0.15 -0.83-0.83
January 1981January 1981 -0.40-0.40 -0.83-0.83
April 1958April 1958 0.530.53 -0.69-0.69
April 1978April 1978 -0.46-0.46 -0.68-0.68
April 1983April 1983 1.221.22 -0.67-0.67
April 1998April 1998 0.870.87 -0.66-0.66
ENSO 2-month ENSO 2-month –– Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer in in Northwest, Northwest, upper/lower upper/lower Midwest, CA coast, Midwest, CA coast, and southern FLand southern FL
CoolerCooler in in Midatlantic, Ohio Midatlantic, Ohio Valley, and Valley, and SoutheastSoutheast
ENSO 2-month ENSO 2-month –– Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in TX, FL, and in TX, FL, and upper Midwestupper Midwest
WetWet in Northeast in Northeast and Ohio River and Ohio River ValleyValley
Largest ENSO 2-month Positive (Largest ENSO 2-month Positive (++) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
March 1950March 1950 -0.73-0.73 1.041.04
January 1953January 1953 0.510.51 0.990.99
February February 19511951
-0.07-0.07 0.970.97
February February 19551955
-0.42-0.42 0.970.97
February February 19761976
-1.08-1.08 0.770.77
February February 19561956
-0.51-0.51 0.680.68
February February 19891989
-1.36-1.36 0.620.62
ENSO 2-month ENSO 2-month ++ Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer in in Southeast, NM, OK, Southeast, NM, OK, and northern TXand northern TX
CoolerCooler in in Northwest, upper Northwest, upper Midwest, MEMidwest, ME
ENSO 2-month ENSO 2-month ++ Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in Southwest, in Southwest, Rockies, and FLRockies, and FL
WetWet in Great Lakes, in Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, Ohio River Valley, OR, WA, MS, and OR, WA, MS, and ALAL
ENSO 3.4 Anomaly 3-month Difference vs. Time
-1.5
-1.25
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
Jan-50
Jan-52
Jan-54
Jan-56
Jan-58
Jan-60
Jan-62
Jan-64
Jan-66
Jan-68
Jan-70
Jan-72
Jan-74
Jan-76
Jan-78
Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Date (MTH-YR)
Ch
an
ge
in E
NS
O 3
.4 A
no
ma
ly
Largest ENSO 3-month Negative (Largest ENSO 3-month Negative (––) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
April 1973April 1973 -0.15-0.15 -1.44-1.44
April 1998April 1998 0.870.87 -1.30-1.30
April 1983April 1983 1.221.22 -1.22-1.22
March 1964March 1964 -0.18-0.18 -1.09-1.09
April 1964April 1964 -0.62-0.62 -1.07-1.07
April 1958April 1958 0.530.53 -1.02-1.02
ENSO 3-month ENSO 3-month –– Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer in in Northwest, Northwest, Midwest, and Midwest, and NortheastNortheast
CoolerCooler in in Southeast, Southeast, Midatlantic, and CAMidatlantic, and CA
ENSO 3-month ENSO 3-month –– Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in TX and in TX and surroundings, surroundings, upper Midwest, and upper Midwest, and FLFL
WetWet in Ohio River in Ohio River Valley, Northeast, Valley, Northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Lakes, and CA/ORCA/OR
Largest ENSO 3-month Positive (Largest ENSO 3-month Positive (++) ) ChangesChanges
Month and Month and YearYear
ValueValue DifferenceDifference
March 1976March 1976 -0.66-0.66 1.191.19
January 1956January 1956 -1.19-1.19 0.990.99
February February 19561956
-0.51-0.51 0.920.92
February February 19531953
0.390.39 0.870.87
February February 19511951
-0.07-0.07 0.860.86
February February 19651965
-0.28-0.28 0.810.81
February February 19891989
-1.36-1.36 0.780.78
ENSO 3-month ENSO 3-month ++ Changes ChangesTemperatureTemperature
WarmerWarmer in in Southwest and FLSouthwest and FL
CoolerCooler in in Northwest and Northwest and upper Midwestupper Midwest
ENSO 3-month ENSO 3-month ++ Changes ChangesPrecipitationPrecipitation
DryDry in Southwest, in Southwest, Rockies, and FLRockies, and FL
WetWet in MN, Great in MN, Great Lakes, and Lakes, and MidatlanticMidatlantic
Other Research PossibilitiesOther Research Possibilities
Same process, but by monthSame process, but by month See monthly trends, not just most See monthly trends, not just most
extreme trendsextreme trends
Note similar trends between NAO and Note similar trends between NAO and ENSOENSO
ConclusionConclusion
Trends are evident in NAO and ENSO Trends are evident in NAO and ENSO monthly “jumps”monthly “jumps”
Trends can be used in long range Trends can be used in long range forecastingforecasting
