Enrollment Discussion October 2018

2018 Enrollment with 2016 Demographic Study Forecast

McKibben Demographics

Downers Grove Grade School District #58: Total District Enrollment

15

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 165 173 165 182 171 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 K 476 478 455 472 475 478 476 476 484 478 471 464 458 451 460 1 479 532 520 498 548 541 529 528 528 521 514 506 499 493 485 2 559 500 556 521 515 558 549 538 545 545 538 531 522 515 509 3 563 566 523 549 528 520 563 555 551 558 558 552 545 536 529 4 572 591 535 510 555 524 515 559 559 555 562 563 557 549 540 5 554 582 585 537 518 557 526 517 569 569 564 571 572 567 559 6 514 552 597 594 531 514 552 522 521 572 573 568 575 576 571

Biliteracy - - 20 36 47 58 69 80 83 82 82 82 82 82 82 Special 22 24 27 30 41 47 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52

Total: K-6 3,904 3,998 3,983 3,929 3,929 3,967 4,001 3,997 4,062 4,102 4,084 4,059 4,032 3,991 3,957

7 572 539 554 598 595 535 503 544 524 516 570 572 567 573 573 8 556 570 544 549 598 595 536 504 548 528 520 574 576 571 577

Total: 7-8 1128 1109 1098 1147 1193 1130 1039 1048 1072 1044 1090 1146 1143 1144 1150

Total: PK-8 5032 5107 5081 5076 5122 5097 5040 5045 5134 5146 5174 5205 5175 5135 5107

Total: PK-8 5032 5107 5081 5076 5122 5097 5040 5045 5134 5146 5174 5205 5175 5135 5107

Change 75 -26 -5 46 -25 -57 5 89 12 28 31 -30 -40 -28%-Change 1.5% -0.5% -0.1% 0.9% -0.5% -1.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% -0.6% -0.8% -0.5%

Total: PK-6 3904 3998 3983 3929 3929 3967 4001 3997 4062 4102 4084 4059 4032 3991 3957

Change 94 -15 -54 0 38 34 -4 65 40 -18 -25 -27 -41 -34%-Change 2.4% -0.4% -1.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% -0.1% 1.6% 1.0% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -1.0% -0.9%

Total: 7-8 1128 1109 1098 1147 1193 1130 1039 1048 1072 1044 1090 1146 1143 1144 1150

Change -19 -11 49 46 -63 -91 9 24 -28 46 56 -3 1 6%-Change -1.7% -1.0% 4.5% 4.0% -5.3% -8.1% 0.9% 2.3% -2.6% 4.4% 5.1% -0.3% 0.1% 0.5%

Forecasts Developed October 2016Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historical dataBlue Cells (2017-18 and later) are forcasted years

2016 Demographic Study

2018 Enrollment BA ES FA HG HL HP IT KG LE PD WH Enrollment

K 22 22K 19 27 28 25 22 20 22 21 19 24K 19 27 27 28 25 22 20 22 21 20 24 526

K-OKEEP 30 20 41 48 45 41 33 54 53 37 38 440K-AM only 8 7 13 8 5 3 7 12 11 2 10 86

526

1 16 28 22 25 23 22 22 26 26 24 23 5131 18 21 25 24 22 20 27 25 24 24

1 26

1/2

2 20 16 20 20 25 20 17 26 22 23 19 493

2 20 14 19 22 25 19 16 25 22 22 182 21 22

2/3

3 20 28 26 28 21 23 24 18 28 24 21 5583 19 28 28 21 22 24 19 27 25 193 20 19 26

3/4

4 26 18 24 27 21 24 19 24 25 24 25 5164 18 24 27 21 24 20 24 26 24 25

4 26

4/55 16 23 25 26 20 18 21 27 23 25 27 5255 17 25 24 20 18 24 27 24 26 265 19 24

5/6

6 26 19 25 21 30 22 23 24 28 29 22 5616 19 26 21 31 22 24 22 28 28 226 21 28

Grades 1-6 198 183 285 336 321 256 254 308 456 298 271Grades K-6 236 210 339 392 371 300 294 374 520 337 319

48 Biliteracy16 11 13 Spec. Ed.

93 74 Preschool

387 393 404 435School Enrollment

with Special Programs

10 9 12 14 14 12 12 13 18 12 12 AverageGr. 1-6 Class Size 19.8 20.3 23.8 24.0 22.9 21.3 21.2 23.7 25.3 24.8 22.6 22.9

12 10 14 16 16 14 14 16 21 14 14 AverageGr. K-6 Class Size 19.7 21.0 24.2 24.5 23.2 21.4 21.0 23.4 24.8 24.1 22.8 22.9

*Lester OKEEP enrollment corrected 9/18/18

2018-19 Enrollment (as of August 31, 2018)

2016 Demographic Study

McKibben Demographics

Table 5: Elementary Enrollment, 2016, 2021, 2026

16

2016 20212016-2021

Change2026

2021-2026Change

2016-2026Change

Belle Aire ES 238 284 19.3% 289 1.8% 21.4%El Sierra ES 267 210 -21.3% 230 9.5% -13.9%Fairmount ES 339 348 2.7% 342 -1.7% 0.9%Henry Puffer ES 289 314 8.7% 301 -4.1% 4.2%Highland ES 364 446 22.5% 425 -4.7% 16.8%Hillcrest ES 383 402 5.0% 378 -6.0% -1.3%Indian Trail ES 331 350 5.7% 333 -4.9% 0.6%Kingsley ES 395 472 19.5% 449 -4.9% 13.7%Lester ES 496 472 -4.8% 445 -5.7% -10.3%Pierce Downer ES 354 334 -5.6% 311 -6.9% -12.1%Whittier ES 302 300 -0.7% 284 -5.3% -6.0%District Total 3929 4102 4.4% 3957 -3.5% 0.7%

Grade Level Comparison

Comparison of 2018 ADM Enrollment With 2016 Series forecastsDowner'sGroveGradeSchoolDistrict#58:

McKibbenDemographicReseach

2016-2018 2016-2018

Grade2015

Enrollment2016

Enrollment2017

EnrollmentForecastof2017

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018

Forecastof2019

Forecastof2020

Forecastof2021

Difference %Difference

PK 182 171 160 170 167 170 170 170 170 3 1.8%K 472 475 506 478 526 476 476 484 478 -50 -9.5%1 498 548 495 541 513 529 528 528 521 16 3.1%2 521 515 562 558 493 549 538 545 545 56 11.4%3 549 528 517 520 558 563 555 551 558 5 0.9%4 510 555 536 524 516 515 559 559 555 -1 -0.2%5 537 518 566 557 525 526 517 569 569 1 0.2%6 594 531 544 514 561 552 522 521 572 -9 -1.6%7 598 595 544 535 563 503 544 524 516 -60 -10.7%8 549 598 603 595 549 536 504 548 528 -13 -2.4%

Elem.Biliteracy 36 47 45 58 48 69 80 83 82 21 43.8%Elem.Special 30 41 47 47 40 52 52 52 52 12 30.0%DistrictTotal 5076 5122 5125 5097 5059 5040 5045 5134 5146 -19 -0.4%

Actualvs.Forecast

Grade Level Comparison

Comparison of 2018 ADM Enrollment With 2016 Series forecastsDowner'sGroveGradeSchoolDistrict#58:

McKibbenDemographicReseach

2016-2018 2016-2018

Grade2015

Enrollment2016

Enrollment2017

EnrollmentForecastof2017

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018

Forecastof2019

Forecastof2020

Forecastof2021

Difference %Difference

PK 182 171 160 170 167 170 170 170 170 3 1.8%K 472 475 506 478 526 476 476 484 478 -50 -9.5%1 498 548 495 541 513 529 528 528 521 16 3.1%2 521 515 562 558 493 549 538 545 545 56 11.4%3 549 528 517 520 558 563 555 551 558 5 0.9%4 510 555 536 524 516 515 559 559 555 -1 -0.2%5 537 518 566 557 525 526 517 569 569 1 0.2%6 594 531 544 514 561 552 522 521 572 -9 -1.6%7 598 595 544 535 563 503 544 524 516 -60 -10.7%8 549 598 603 595 549 536 504 548 528 -13 -2.4%

Elem.Biliteracy 36 47 45 58 48 69 80 83 82 21 43.8%Elem.Special 30 41 47 47 40 52 52 52 52 12 30.0%DistrictTotal 5076 5122 5125 5097 5059 5040 5045 5134 5146 -19 -0.4%

Actualvs.Forecast

Noteworthy

Elementary Grade Level Data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

K 1 2 3 4 5 6

Num

bero

sStud

ents

GradeLevels

ComparisonofElementaryEnrollmentwith2016SeriesForecast

2015Enrollment

2016Enrollment

2017Enrollment

Forecastof2017

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018

Forecastof2019

Forecastof2020

Forecastof2021

Middle School Grade Level Data

598

549

595 598

544

603

535

595

563549

503

536544

504524

548

516528

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

7 8

Num

berosStude

nts

GradeLevels

ComparisonofMiddleSchoolEnrollmentwith2016SeriesForecasts

2015Enrollment

2016Enrollment

2017Enrollment

Forecastof2017

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018

Forecastof2019

Forecastof2020

Forecastof2021

Kindergarten Grade Level Data

472 475

506

478

526

476 476 484 478

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

K

Num

berosStude

nts

GradeLevels

ComparisonofKindergartenEnrollmentwith2016SeriesForecasts

2015Enrollment

2016Enrollment

2017Enrollment

Forecastof2017

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018

Forecastof2019

Forecastof2020

Forecastof2021

2nd Grade Level Data

521 515

562 558

493

549538 545 545

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2

Num

berosStude

nts

GradeLevels

Comparisonof2ndGradeEnrollmentwith2016SeriesForecasts

2015Enrollment

2016Enrollment

2017Enrollment

Forecastof2017

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018

Forecastof2019

Forecastof2020

Forecastof2021

School Level Data Comparison of 2018 ADM Enrollment With 2016 Series forecastsDowner'sGroveGradeSchoolDistrict#58:

McKibben Demographic Reseach

K-6 Enrollment

2018 Enrollment

Forecast of 2018

Enrollment Difference Difference

Preschool & Special Programs Enrollment

BelleAire 236 * 237 1 0.4%ElSierra 210 232 22 10.5%Fairmount 339 345 6 1.8%HenryPuffer 300 302 2 0.7% 93Highland 392 * 402 10 2.6%Hillcrest 371 381 10 2.7% 16IndianTrail 294 313 19 6.5% 85Kingsley 374 355 -19 -5.1% 61Lester 520 494 -26 -5.0%PierceDowner 337 338 1 0.3%Whittier 319 311 -8 -2.5%

K-6Total 3692 3710 18 0.5% 255

* Note: There are 11 kindergarten students, one 1st grader and one 3rd grader transferred from Highland to Belle Aire due to grade level enrollment caps. HG resident enrollment would be 405, including 13 administratively transferred students; and BA's enrollment would be 223, excluding those same 13 transferred students.

School Level Data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Numbe

rofS

tude

nts

School

ElementaryEnrollmentwithForecast

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018Enrollment

School Level Data

7-8 Enrollment

2018 Enrollment

Forecast of 2018

Enrollment Difference DifferenceO'NeillMS 458 445 -13 -2.8%HerrickMS 654 594 -60 -9.2%

MSTotal 1112 1039 -73 -6.6%

District Enrollment

2018 Enrollment

Forecast of 2018

Enrollment Difference DifferenceDISTRICT TOTAL 4,804 4,749 -55 -1.1%

Including Elem. Special Programs 5,059 5,040 -19 -0.4%

School Level Data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

445 594

458 654

O'NeillMS HerrickMS

Numbe

rofS

tude

nts

School

MiddleSchoolEnrollmentwithForecast

2018Enrollment

Forecastof2018Enrollment

HerrickMiddleSchoolO'NeillMiddleSchool

Next Steps

!  Improve Kindergarten Registration Procedures for Highland

!  Consider Intra-District Transfer Policy

!  Examine Enrollment and Forecasts in Conjunction with Facility Planning and Capacity Analysis

!  Resources Review Council Work

!  Other Needs?

Questions, Comments, Feedback and Suggestions

Thank you