© OECD/IEA - 2010

Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

Oslo, 27 August 2010

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

The context

Need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.

Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.

Which technologies can play a role?

What are the costs and benefits?

What policies are needed?

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TECHNOLOGY

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Scenarios &

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to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

OECD and non-OECD primary energy demand in the Baseline scenario

Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase much faster than in OECD countries in the Baseline scenario.

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2007 Baseline 2015 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050

Mto

e

OECD Non-OECD

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2030 2050 2030 2050

Baseline BLUE Map

Gt C

O2

Other

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Other transformation

Power generation

Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

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ENERGY

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PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region

In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions inenergy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECDcountries.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt

CO

2Other Non-OECD 19%

Other OME 14%

India 12%

China 27%

Other OECD 10%

OECD Europe 7%

United States 11%BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

ETP2010 analysis WEO 2009 450 ppm case

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TECHNOLOGY

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario

By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000M

toe 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

-27%

-36%

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Crude oil price

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Do

llars

per b

arre

lReal ($2008) Baseline Scenario

Real ($2008) BLUE Map Scenario

Impact of CO2 price on costs for crude oil:2020 50 USD/t CO2= 21 USD/bbl: 90+21 =111 USD/bbl 2030 110 USD/t CO2= 43 USD/bbl: 90+43 =133 USD/bbl2050 175 USD/t CO2= 73 USD/bbl: 70+73 =143 USD/bbl

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Decarbonising the power sector –a new age of electrification?

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

BLUE High Nuclear 2050

BLUE High Ren 2050

PW

hOther

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass and waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas+CCS

Natural gas

Oil

Coal+CCS

Coal

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Scenarios &

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Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario

Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.

0 10 20 30 40 50

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Geothermal

Wind-offshore

Wind-onshore

Biomass plants

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas-fired with CCS

Coal-fired with CCS

GW/ yr

Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map

30 plants (1 000 MW)

200 plants (50 MW)

12 000 turbines (4 MW)

3 600 turbines (4 MW)

45 units (100 MW)

55 CSP plants (250 MW)

325 million m2 solar panels

2/3 of Three Gorges Dam

35 plants (500 MW)

20 plants (500 MW)

Historical high

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

CCS Roadmap

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cap

ture

d C

O2

(MtC

O2/y

r)

OECD PACIFIC

USA

OTHER OECD N AM

OECD EUROPE

ODA

ME

INDIA

EEU + FSU

CSA

CHINA

AFR

2020100 projectsOECD (50%)

Non-OECD (50%)

2030850 projectsOECD (49%)Non-OECD (51%)

2050

3,400 projectsOECD (35%)

Non-OECD (65%)

2040

2,100 projectsOECD (40%)Non-OECD (60%)

201518 projectsOECD (72%)

Non-OECD (28%)

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Wind Roadmap

Wind has the potential to provide 12% of global electricity production in 2050

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Scenarios &

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PV Roadmap

PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11%

in 2050

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Unprecedented rates of change in market penetration of advanced technologies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pas

sen

ger L

DV

Sal

es

(mil

lio

n)

H2 hybrid fuel cell

Electricity

CNG/LPG

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Diesel hybrid

Conventional diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Hybrid (gasoline)

Conventional gasoline

Light-duty vehicle sales by technology type to 2050

Electric Vehicle Roadmap

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050

Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

Direct reductions Enabled reductions

Greater integration of

renewables

Facilitation of electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles

Energy savings from peak load management

Continuous commissioning of

service sector loads

Accelerated deployment of energy efficiency programs

Reduced line losses (voltage control)

Direct feedback on energy usage

0.34- 0.69

0.31- 0.62

0.09- 0.27

0.03- 0.25

0.01- 0.05

0.00- 0.01

0.07- 0.27

Gt

CO

2/

yr

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Additional investment and fuel savings, 2010-2050

Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional investment required.

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Inve

stm

en

t

Fue

l sav

ings

USD

trill

ion

(201

0-20

50)

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industry

Power distribution

Power transmission

Power generation

Biomass and waste

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Un

dis

cou

nte

d

3%

dis

cou

nt

10

% d

isco

un

t

Total

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Environmental co-impacts of electricity generation technologies

Most renewable technologies have positive environmental co-impacts.

Air Water Land Air Water Land

Coal - USC 0.777

Coal - BiomassPos itive Pos i tive

Variable /

Uncerta in

Variable /

Uncerta inMinimal Minimal

0.622

Coal - CCSNegative Negative Negative

Variable /

Uncerta inNegative Minimal

0.142

Coal - IGCCMinimal

Variable /

Uncerta inMinimal Pos i tive Pos i tive Minimal

0.708

NGCCPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive

0.403

NuclearPos itive

Variable /

Uncerta in

Variable /

Uncerta inPos i tive Negative Pos itive

0.005

Solar - CSPPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Negative Minimal

0.017

Solar - PVPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Minimal

0.009

Wind Pos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tiveVariable /

Uncerta in 0.002

CO2

Emissionst/MWh

Energy

Technologies

Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below

Life Cycle Impacts(Pre- and Post-Generation) Power Generation Impacts

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Scenarios &

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OECD EUROPE

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Contributions to emissions reductions in OECD Europe

End-use sector measures contribute nearly two-thirds of the emissions reductions between the Baseline and BLUEscenarios in 2050.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt

CO

2CCS 24%

Renewables 21%

Nuclear 7%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%End-use fuel switching 12%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 33%

WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis

BLUE Map emissions 1.1 Gt

Baseline emissions 4.0 Gt

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario in OECD Europe

Fossil fuel demand is reduced to one half under the BLUE Map scenario.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Mto

e 2007

Baseline 2050

BLUE Map 2050

-51%

-51%

-63%

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Decarbonisation of power generation in OECD Europe

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

BLUE High Nuclear 2050

BLUE High Ren 2050

TWh

Imports

Other

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass and waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas+CCS

Natural gas

Oil

Coal+CCS

Coal

A mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

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Scenarios &

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© OECD/IEA - 2010

Additional investment needs and fuel cost savings for OECD Europe

Large investment needs in transport and the building sectors maybe compensated by fuel savings.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010

-203

0

2030

-205

0

2010

-203

0

2030

-205

0

2010

-203

0

2030

-205

0

2010

-203

0

2030

-205

0

Power sector Industry Transport Buildings

USD

tril

lio

nAdditional investments

Fuel savings

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Scenarios &

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Fuel use in the transport in OECD Europe

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Baseline Baseline BLUE Shifts BLUE Map BLUE Map Shifts

2007 2030 2050

Mto

e

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Electricity

CNG and LPG

GTL and CTL

Heavy fuel oil

Jet fuel

Diesel

Gasoline

The use of fossil fuels in the transport sector falls by over 60% inthe BLUE Map scenario

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Passenger light-duty vehicles sales by technology in OECD Europe in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios

Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario

A wide range of new LDV technologies contribute to emissionsreductions under the BLUE scenario.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mill

ion

sal

es/

yr

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hydrogen fuel cell

Hydrogen hybrid

Electricity

CNG and LPG

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Hybrid diesel

Hybrid gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

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CO2 emissions in the buildings sector in OECD Europe

Space and water heating and cooling 21%

Building shell 15%

Cooking, lighting and

appliances 9%

Electricity decarbonisation

55%

Decarbonisation of the electricity sector contributes over half of emissions reduction in the buildings sector.

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Contributions to emissions reductions in OECD Europe

Reductions in the buildings and power sector represent the largest savings

CCS power generation 12%

Nuclear 7%Wind 3%

Solar 1%

Other power generation 11%

CCS industry and transformation

12%

Industrial efficiency and recycling 4%

Industry fuel switching 2%

Transportation efficiency 11%

PHEV and EV 4%FCV 2%

2nd generation biofuels 6%

Building efficiency 18%

Other building reductions 7%

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Policies for supporting low-carbon technologies

Government support policies need to be appropriately tailored to the stage(s) of technological development.

6 GW of PVinstalled in 2009

80 large scaleintegrated plantsbeing developed

Renewables Transport Energyefficiency

Research anddevelopment

Carbon captureand storage

© OECD/IEA - 2010

The first green shootsof an energy technology revolution…

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Plans for 5 million hybrid and

electric vehiclesby 2020

1/3 funding increasebetween

2005 and 2008

Global sales of CFLs @ 3500

million/yr

Renewables Transport Energyefficiency

Research anddevelopment

Carbon captureand storage

© OECD/IEA - 2010

…much more needs to be done

46 GW of PVper year

until 2050

Over 1 billion plug-in and electric vehicles

in 2050

Increase funding by2 to 5 times

current levels

Over 3 000 plantsoperational by

2050

Lighting market dominated by LEDs in 2050

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Thank You

www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp