Energy Policy PA 395 May 27, 2004 Gary Flomenhoft uvm/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395
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Energy Policy PA 395 May 27, 2004 Gary Flomenhoft http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/
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Energy Policy PA 395 May 27, 2004 Gary Flomenhoft http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/. Course Goals. Governance: International US Vermont Fri, June 11: Attend Vermont VELCO Hearing. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Energy Policy PA 395 May 27, 2004 Gary Flomenhoft uvm/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395
Energy Policy PA 395May 27, 2004
Gary Flomenhofthttp://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/
Course Goals
Governance:InternationalUSVermont
Fri, June 11:Attend Vermont VELCO Hearing
“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For those who would institute change have enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and they have only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order.”
Nicolo Machiavelli, 1490
Climate ChangeSummary of Facts
2 Billion Years of Temperature History
300 Million yrs of CO2
60 Million yrs of CO2
Summary of Units
K=Kilo=thousand=103
M=Mega=million=106
G=Giga=Billion=109
T=Tera=Trillion=1012
Quad=Quadrillion=1015
Exa=1018
Relevant units: BTU= Unit of energy needed to raise one pound of water by one degree fahrenheit=1005J=778ft-lb=252cal
Joule=. 0.001 BTU
Watts=VxA=1 Joule/second
Watt-hour=one Watt for one hour
Quad=Quadrillion (1015) BTU
The Carbon Question
963
726
484
8 7 5 4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Coal Gas Wind SolarThermal
Oil Nuclear PV
Met
ric
ton
s p
er G
Wh
e
World GDP and CO2
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000
World GDP Billions US$$
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
World GDPCO2 level
0
25
50
75
100
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Use
wood
animal feed
coal
oil
gas
electricity
Per
cen
t o
f to
tal
ener
gy
use
CO2 vs WORLD GDP
270
290
310
330
350
370
$1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000
WORLD GDP Billions of 1990 Intl $$ Log scale (source: De Long)
ATM CO2 CONCENTRATION parts per million(ppm)
GDP 1825: ~$200 BILLION
2000: $41,000 B ILLION OR $41 TRILLION
=205X 1825 level.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950
Fuel
DomesticatedAnimals
Labor
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
750650550450 ppmv
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Annual Emissions (GtC)
Stabilization Targets
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios
Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?
8.0
5.8
7.6
6.4
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Billion tons of carbon
Business-as-usual
Kyoto Protocol scenario
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996
7,415
8,504
11,651
15,715
4,235
4,054
2,331
1,361
96650,795
1,557
2,080
2,118
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
United States
Indonesia
Korea, Rep.
Brazil
Australia
Mexico
South Africa
Canada
India
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
China
Million tons of carbon
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
Per capita emissions of carbon from industrial sources, 1996
1.88
2.10
2.46
2.54
2.59
2.87
2.91
4.63
0.33
0.29
5.37
0.46
0.76
1.02
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
United States
India
Indonesia
Brazil
China
Mexico
South Africa
Ukraine
Korea, Rep.
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
Russian Federation
Australia
Thousand tons of carbon
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGEArctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
Europe in August 2003
COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS
France 14,802Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-keeping began in 1873.
Germany 7000High temperatures of up to 105.4 degreesFahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above average.
Spain 4230High temperatures coupled with elevated ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk threshold.
Italy 4175Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.
UK 2045The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded in London.
Neth 1400Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal.
Portugal 1316Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout much of the country.
Belgium 150Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological Society's records dating back to 1833.
TOTAL 35,118
Ocean Conveyor Belt-(Thermohaline)
Methane-hydrates
"Kyoto and its policies are inconsistent with freedom, prosperity and environmental policy progress," said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. "I’m becoming more and more convinced, as time goes by and we look at the research, that global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people and the world."
MSNBC News Link 12/10/03
